... the sunrise is cloud-covered once again, but you can hunker down in here and talk all night.
April 4, 2020
At the Gray Café...
... the sunrise is cloud-covered once again, but you can hunker down in here and talk all night.
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183 comments:
Look, I've done my mere meagerist spelling.
The REAL Covidiots are the alarmists on these threads accusing normal people of mass murder for wanting to restart the economy.
In about 5 months, that will become clear. And after that, nobody will ever take them seriously again. At least, nobody with a brain.
Two compelling people i like trending on Twitter right now, for different reasons.
Joe Rogan and Louis CK.
Dr Drew is trending too, but i don't care about him.
I was expecting $6,000,000,000.
So far I've received (wow blown away again received is e before i) not a damn thing.
Say what?
So, on tonight's "What Mark's watching" --
"So let it be written. So let it be done."
Dr Drew just volunteered to work in CCP flu infested hospitals.
AOC is using her biochemistry skills to try and teach us to make margaritas.
Joe Biden is hiding in a retirement home somewhere, wishing he were young again so he could viciously yell at us the way he yelled when he was young.
Trump is working all day ( and making jokes about models, but, you know, he is married to one ).
I care about Dr Drew and Trump.
AOC and Biden are hubristic selfish people, and I pity them.
The hidden blessing of the WuhuFlu is that it's forced otherwise reasonable-seeming people to unleash their inner statists. All in the name of "following the data". But what data do we have that is incontrovertibly true? Very little. But these TRUE Covidiots insist that we believe the numbers out of China, insist that we believe the numbers out of Italy, insist that we believe that every positive test is correct (and every negative test, for that matter) and insist that people who are rightly skeptical of the danger this disease poses are welcoming death or casting aside the sick and elderly.
The data we have is limited, faulty, and corrupted by intent. Italy is overstating their cases. Korea is probably understating theirs. Most cases are mild, and the overwhelming majority of those who have died or needed ventilation are stricken with comorbidities that would have posed a concern for ANY respiratory ailment.
Meanwhile, we have >10 million out of work - people with lives, bills, kids, and plans. People who, 3 weeks ago, were productive and keeping the economy going. Now they're stuck at home because a few jackwagons feel that shutting down the country was the best solution for a minor illness with a death rate that (by the time the data clears up, early autumn) barely scratches 0.05%.
I hope one of our resident Covidiots (KB, TiV, other jackwagons yet to be named) copy this comment and repost it, like the wannabe hall monitors they are. When I'm proven to be correct, I'll enjoy seeing it on here twice. Twice the shame for you alarmist twits.
The moment restaurants reopen, I'm gonna blow through a few thou' taking my wife and daughter out for a week straight. And I will tip heartily. And I will apologize on behalf of all the sane people that we allowed a small cadre of alarmist pricks deny millions of people their income to save perhaps a few thousand folks the trouble of getting the sniffles.
Clue Two:
EPIC
Trials in the US https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-treatment-clinical-trials-map-taking-place-2020-4
I forget which one pants volunteered for.
A systematic review on the efficacy and safety of chloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19
published in Journal of Critical Care is available online as of March 10, 2020.
This is a review, not an original study.
They state that chloroquine is widely used, safe and cheap. And that it has been effective in treating viral infections in pre-clinical studies (this is a reference to other viruses including SARS).
They state that there is pre-clinical evidence that it would be effective in treating Covid-19.
They state that there are currently 23 clinical trials of the use of chloroquine to treat Covid-19 in China.
Their sources are a narrative letter, an in-vitro study, an editorial, an expert consensus paper, two national guideline documents and the 23 ongoing clinical trials in China.
Reading through the paper I note that for every single Chinese clinical trial the subjects
are patients that have pneumonia and that means there are no trials on what I would like to
see, ie. what happens when hydroxychloroquine is given quite early in the course of the disease.
The Guangdong Province expert consensus paper described a suggested treatment protocol:
"Based on in vitro evidence and still unpublished clinical experience,
the panel recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, at a dose of 500 mg twice per day for 10 days, for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, provided that there were no contraindications to the drug. The panel recommended using several precautions, including blood testing to rule out the development of anemia, thrombocytopenia or leukopenia as well as serum electrolyte disturbances and/or hepatic and renal function dysfunction. Also recommended were routine electrocardiography to rule out the development of QT interval prolongation or bradycardia and patient interviews to seek the appearance of visual and/or mental disturbance/deterioration. The panel recommended avoiding concurrent administration of other drugs known to prolong the QT interval (i.e. chinolones, macrolides, ondansetron) as well as various antiarrhythmic, antidepressant and antipsychotic drugs [7]."
The Dutch Center of Disease Control advocates "600 mg of chloroquine base (6 tablets A-CQ 100 mg) followed by 300 mg after 12 h on day 1, then 300 mg × 2/die per os on days 2–5 days. This document also underlined 1) the needs for stopping the treatment at day 5 to reduce the risk of side effects, considering the long half-life of the drug (30 h); 2) the need to differentiate between regimens based on chloroquine phosphate and chloroquine base since 500 mg of the first correspond to 300 mg of the second [8]."
The Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical Disease (Lombardy section) recommends
"chlorochine 500 mg × 2/die or hydroxychloroquine 200 mg die for 10 days, although the treatment may vary from 5 to 20 days according to clinical severity. The suggested target population ranged from patients with mild respiratory symptoms and comorbidities to patients with severe respiratory failure [9]."
“ Twice the shame for you alarmist twits. ”
Talk to ward. His alleged analysis led him to double down on 7500 US dead for the entire epidemic. We are well past that already. And that after we took measures he opposed.
Kyzer SoSay: "The REAL Covidiots are the alarmists on these threads accusing normal people of mass murder for wanting to restart the economy."
It gets even weirder than that.
Ken B informed me just the other night that demanding equalization of tariffs between nations for free and fair trade made me a Bernie socialist.
Strange indeed.
Tim operates out of an abundance of caution Thats understandable, sean davis notes the underutilization of health service that was the predicate for this decision
I want to begin "alarmist shaming". If the ripples from this mass insanity of economic closure end up creating a truly scary civil unrest situation, I would make sure that the rioters know who the alarmists were that put them out of work. Just like a well-armed dude putting a sign on his door pointing to his moonbat anti-2A neighbor's house with the message, "I'm armed, he's not, choose wisely" for any potential burglars to see, but I wanna go a step further. If the cities empty and the rioters come to my town to loot, I want an app that shows the address of everyone who cheered this shutdown, or tattled on their neighbors for letting kids play at the park, or tried to shame people for not wearing masks. The rioters can start with THEIR houses. Don't come for me and my family - first off, we're VERY heavily armed, and second off, I never wanted to put you out of work to begin with.
That would be nice. Maybe I'll learn to code in time to build that app.
Of course, I'm still working so it'll have to be evening classes. Maybe I'll pay a now-unemployed waitress to learn to code instead. I'm sure she could use the money to feed her kids.
They state that there is pre-clinical evidence that it would be effective in treating Covid-19
Better to suppress it all, and burn all the supplies, than to admit of the possibility that maybe Trump was right.
That chloroquine article is a month old.
"We are well past that already."
You don't know that. You know what you're told. Believing it uncritically is a giveaway that, despite your advanced years, maybe you're not very bright.
Testing accuracy has been a major concern for this entire crisis. That's to be expected with a new disease - that being what "novel" in "Novel Coronavirus" means, after all.
So why do you believe these numbers? Do you REALLY believe that every death cert with "COVID-19" listed as a primary or contributing cause is 100% correct?
Drago has started backing away from what he said already!
I wonder if women would command more respect if they didn't all sound like five-year-old girls.
The cases seem to spread in nyc where the leadership was out to lunch (madison square garden, chinatown) in new orleans (mardigras) where else is there a large cluster, even nj isnt doing so badly and its right next door.
Spain and Italy are hardest hit. I haven't seen any criticism of their governments. Are they left wing governments?....Germany has apparently taken some effective steps at mitigation. Does any other European country have a better record than the USA?.....I don't know what kind of luck Sweden will have, but I'm glad that at least one country is trying a different strategy.
I rewatched Mrs. Sloane (2016). It seems to be a lefty-cause-based story about a powerful woman. Actually the male escort, a bit part, is the hero of the story.
Spain is a popular front, italy was a populist taken over by technocrats.
Mark, I’m on to you. Interesting choice these days.
Claudine Longet alert: Rat Patrol, coming up on H&I.
"... the sunrise is cloud-covered once again."
Astronomy in Wisconsin…
"Tim operates out of an abundance of caution"
Yeah, maybe. I'd have to look back, but I recall a few occasions in the early Trump/late Obama time frame where I'd read his comments and been surprised at how stridently statist and progressive he sounded. I attributed it to the same Vermont attitude that got Bernie a lifetime Senate seat, but now I see it's deeper than that.
Perish the thought that maybe the elderly and vulnerable should confine THEMSELVES to quarantine and take THEIR OWN precautions while the rest of us go about our business. I have no issue with the authorities strenuously recommending us to be hygeinic, cough in a safe manner, carry or utilize hand sanitizer, and be extra careful to spray our doorknobs, keyboards, and car keys with Lysol as INDIVIDUAL measures. I vigorously oppose the mass closures we're currently undergoing. It's stupidity overkill times eleventy quadrillion, and it's going to lead to more problems than it's solving (cuz it's not solving shit).
Think about the targeted relief we could see for that situation versus the massive stimulus we just enacted. If an asthmatic waitress or a hotel concierge with lupus decided that they would chance extended absence from work for a period to avoid the disease, and then needed to apply for some kind of new "self-quarantine" unemployment assistance, I'd rather reckon those costs than the $2T+ we're currently looking at. Even if some grifters took unethical advantage of that kinda thing, we'd still be looking at a far less drastic expansion of govt spending than we are now.
Yes this stimulus is the biggest high way robbery simce gold finger broke into ft knox
"I wonder if women would command more respect if they didn't all sound like five-year-old girls."
Ask Elizabeth Holmes about that. She intentionally used a deep voice and managed to scam billions of dollars as head of Theranos. BTW, people who took Theranos seriously are just like the Covidiot alarmists - not to be taken seriously themselves.
That's why I was glad to see Mattis go. He bought the bullshit hook line and sinker. He did so with the best intentions to reduce casualties among his men in wartime, but it was still bullshit to believe in that magical pixie dust.
"I forget which one pants volunteered for."
She volunteered for the same on I did. It's the one where they make a vaccine out of your crushed testicles.
SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data published online on the 19th of March suggests that the mortality rates from the Covid-19 epidemic are similar to those from 4 other current coronavirus epidemics which have been ongoing for several years now.
The four other current coronavirus epidemics are:
(a) Coronavirus HKU1;
(b) Coronavirus NL63;
(c) Coronavirus OC43;
(d) Coronavirus E229.
Their data, other than for Covid-19, came from the "Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille" which includes all of the public hospitals of Marseille plus four university hospitals.
Quote: "Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection
cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation."
They list the current 16 endemic viruses in developed countries:
adenovirus,
bocavirus,
cytomegalovirus,
enterovirus,
influenza A H1N1 virus,
influenza A H3N2 virus,
influenza B virus,
metapneumovirus,
parainfluenzae virus 1,
parainfluenzae virus 2,
parainfluenzae virus 3,
parainfluenzae virus 4,
parechovirus,
picornavirus,
rhinovirus,
and syncytial respiratory virus.
And note that globally 2.6 million deaths per year are believed to be due to these viruses.
They don't believe that Covid-19 is going to significantly change that number.
They speculate that just like the other coronaviruses a large population of endemic,
asymptomatic carriers, who are immune to the Covid-19 virus will develop.
The paper has seven authors.
Anne Baxter is looking really good.
But AA got me started on the YouTubes.
Also watching Marilyn McCoo -- she looks mighty good too.
"Rat Patrol"
My late grandfather's favorite show. He died of COPD, brought on by COVID-19. Which is odd, because he died 5 years ago, but that's the best "data" we have. It's at least as trustworthy as anything we're getting from Dr. Mario Luigi in Italy or Dr. Bat-Soup Yung in Wuhan.
"Hear O Pharaoh: Thus says the Lord thy God -- Let my people go."
"They don't believe that Covid-19 is going to significantly change that number."
The question, panic and sensationalist reporting notwithstanding, is always about excess mortality. Checking European data suggests more than these authors expect, but of course less than the total death count "due to" Wuhan.
Thats was the one with eastwood and eric braeden?
Mandrewa: "The paper has seven authors."
And if some posters on these boards have their way, those 7 authors can look forward to charges of Crimes Against Humanity leveled at them.
Ken B: "Drago has started backing away from what he said already!"
There is zero change in my position, as you know.
But you painted yourself into a corner and we'll see how you handle it.
Thus far, not well.
Spain and Italy are hardest hit. I haven't seen any criticism of their governments. Are they left wing
Italy was a center-right coalition until Salvini (right populist) pulled out of the government in the expectation of new elections he would win. His coalition partner 5 star decided to create a center-left eurocentric government. Oops.
Spain is a new left wing socialist government. Coincidentally, just a couple months ago they did away with the private sector healthcare system that ran parallel to the government system. Double oops!
France is also hard hit. Of course the French let their old people die by the thousands in a summer heatwaves that are no more than 100f.
Hans Gudegast. Christopher George was the star.
Narr
No Eastwood that I remember
Salvini was a strong critic of the chinese regime, from what i could tell, as a member in the lombard region it wasnt easy.
I like this commentator @mandrewa! He is citing papers in the literature, and explaining them quite well.
Some folks are afraid of numbers and the literature. But that's life.
It has rained all day today in NorCal, and will rain the next 2 days, casting a pall over everyone. But there is light at the end of this tunnel.
I haven't checked the models, but this comment at Instapundit is telling:
"Overpredict much? In my home state, AR, the model predicts that by today the confidence interval range for deaths is 282 to 687. Hitting a target that wide should be pretty easy, right? Actual deaths to date? 14. Anyone relying on a model has no business making public policy decisions."
Ken B deserves a hearty slice of Bat'n'Pangolin pie, fresh from the moist streets of Wuhan. Preferably coughed on by Tom Hanks.
"The patient died but the operation was successful."
Post-mortem of the US Economy, as told by the alarmists.
Irene Cara doing her own dancing to "What A Feeling" on the Jerry Lewis Telethon --
https://youtu.be/d6Oxwnf1lPE
Lily Munster meets a big strapping man at the well.
Thats harsh, can you believe they are still keeping the wet markets open and some one at bloomberg, approves of it?
I intend to hunker in place until the WHO, or whoever, finds an affordable cure for death. I refuse to overpay.
narciso: "Thats harsh, can you believe they are still keeping the wet markets open and some one at bloomberg, approves of it?"
China owns Bloomberg.
I intend to hunker in place until . . . whoever, finds an affordable cure for death. I refuse to overpay.
Wait a week, Char.
Although some people do think the price too high.
I must not have been paying attention because I recently realized that Ken B recently morphed into Lil' Chuckles.
The difference is that Lil' Chuckles hysteria was always beneath the surface and when it came out he was vicious. That is largely why he was banned, IMO.
Lil' Kenny's hysteria is out in the open. He is truly struggling with an existential crisis and does not know how to handle it.
her solo act
die kultur kommissars
Please, before you call anyone a “jackwagon” (I won’t mention any name), ask yourself, does it spark joy? If so, do it!
stephen cooper said...AOC is using her biochemistry skills to try and teach us to make margaritas.
--
If she had any brains, she'd be promoting Gin and Tonics.
That's going to a lot of trouble for a cover.
Hard to depict the unimaginable on film -- God in the Burning Bush.
Over 1400 dead in the USA in 24 hours.
I know, I know: just grandmas and New Yorkers *shrug*.
An honest question: Is our economy so fragile that it cannot survive a few weeks of shutdown?
Is that what were told will be the interval,
mock,
We don't have the phase III trial complete.
Also: Define "fragile", "few" and "shutdown".
(and "survive")
Is our economy so fragile that it cannot survive a few weeks of shutdown?
It depends upon whether creditors and landlords (commercial and residential) go along with a time-out or not. If they demand that businesses and people pay money they do not have because the movement of money is the life-blood of the economy and that movement has stopped, and if landlords start dumping their commercial tenants -- NO, it cannot long survive.
My friend is at risk of losing her restaurant (and all her capital investment) because of the shutdown. There is not enough curbside business to pay the rent.
And local governments need to suspend property taxes too.
“ An honest question: Is our economy so fragile that it cannot survive a few weeks of shutdown?”
No it isn’t. Not when businesses don’t liquidate, or banks don’t foreclose, or people don’t move away. Not, in other words, when the productive capacity isn’t disassembled.
And the whole idea of the bailouts is to prevent just those actions. So, in a few weeks, we can start having more and more people working in reasonable safety. The workers on unemployment will start getting back to work. Germany is already getting people back to work based on testing.
We talked about how prissy today's actors are.
Certainly no bigger-than-life booming men like Charlton Heston.
I forget which one pants volunteered for.
You are SUCH a creep. Fuck off.
They bitched and moaned about Moses.
Don't expect they will treat others any differently.
I took the dog out for his late walk. Either someone has his fireplace going or we've been reduced to burning our dead.
On a better note --
What was for dinner, Pants?
Something better than the McDouble I had, I trust?
Well you saw with exodus and noah they couldnt even grasp the themes
Mark said
“ It depends upon whether creditors and landlords ... demand that businesses and people pay money they do not have because the movement of money is the life-blood of the economy and that movement has stopped, and if landlords start dumping their commercial tenants -- NO, it cannot long survive.”
Correct. Which is why the bailout, and other actions that can be taken. So that a short hiatus does lead to liquidations. So the real question is, with the bailout how long can that kind of thing be forestalled.
“ And local governments need to suspend property taxes too.”
Absolutely.
mockturtle asked: An honest question: Is our economy so fragile that it cannot survive a few weeks of shutdown?
Of course it will survive. We are a very resilient and resourceful people.
However, if Democrats take more power ...
Stanford prof talking sanity, “astounded” at shutdowns
Does anyone know if that "China is asshole" guy is still around, or did he disappear?
I just think he made a good point, and I'd like to get his newsletter.
God turns water to blood.
And water to wine and wine to Blood.
I swing by every few hours to see what the conversation is.
One thing I do not do is pay attention to Ken B. Or friendenstein of course.
Were probably better prepared than most, we have seen how europe has fared parts of south americs
A preview of what was to come, wine to blood the final sacrifice.
What was for dinner, Pants?
Planned: poblano chicken chowder, yeast rolls, fruit salad
Actual: spaghetti with olive oil and garlic, a bucket of pecan turtle ice cream
Was lazy; what can I say. Spaghetti was good, though! :D
Pharaoh is obstinate. God rebukes. Pharaoh repents. Pharaoh goes back to his pride.
Repeat.
and repeat and repeat and repeat . . .
until there are no more second chances.
We need to get you a cooking show.
The word "plague" is from a word meaning "harsh blow."
Yes, a show about downing a bucket of pecan turtle ice cream would be very popular. Add in a body-positive segment and it's golden.
Stanford prof, belaboring the obvious: "a global economic collapse will cost lives." Still, needs to be said, apparently.
Is that like rocky road, i havent had that in ages.
Nigella had a good show.
Question for all factions here: suppose the rate of recovery of old people put on ventilators is less then 20%, i.e., that once complications set in among the old and sick they actually can't be saved even with heroic interventions, then how does that affect the rationale for flattening the curve, insofar as it was intended to prevent overwhelming demand for special equipment and personnel?
A big lesson of the Exodus is not that God is wrathful and angrily destroys His enemies. The lesson is that God is forgiving and merciful.
He gave Pharaoh chance after chance after chance. He gave him a complete number of chances, relenting each time and not destroying him -- the symbolic meaning of the number ten is "complete."
But eventually there are no more chances to repent, to turn and do the right thing. And that end point comes at death. There are no more chances after death. Turn toward the good while you still have time, then death will "pass over" you. But if you don't, then . . .
And don't blame God if you don't. That is your choice. And He will respect your choice.
I hope all of you who are beginning tomorrow the celebration of Holy Week have a good and peaceful one, in spite of the fact that so many of us won't be able to participate in the sacred rites. Hódie, si vocem Dómini audiéritis, nolíte obduráre corda vestra, 'would you but listen to his voice to-day! do not harden your hearts...' (Psalm 95,8).
However, if Democrats take more power ...
Heaven forbid! Wouldn't it be sweet if Pelosi got unelected, not just unseated as Speaker, but defeated by her GOP rival? That would be almost as satisfying as Trump's triumphant victory in 2016.
Back in the good old days, the way they handled plagues was to seek out the scapegoats and to commit some act of piety to gain God's miraculous intervention.....Melania doesn't make much of a witch, but I think it was brave of Jared Kushner to step up for the Jewish scapegoat role. For a few innocuous comments, he got a blizzard of criticism. Perhaps by destroying Kushner, we can kill the evil spirit in our land. But Trump is still the prime scapegoat. This is all his fault, even though he's not Jewish. The ideal thing would be to burn him alive at the stake in the Rose Garden.....The acts of piety that would engender God's miraculous intervention are, of course, face masks, frequent ablutions, and retreat from the world. This will surely demonstrate our worthiness and bring about an end to these troubled times....And so we advance.
The thing about Moses is that he was an outsider. An outsider to everyone.
The Egyptians didn't trust him because he was Hebrew.
The Hebrews/Israelites didn't trust him because he was raised Egyptian and had a pagan wife.
A little like saul of tarsus, he had alienated the christians with his persecutions and then the pagans with his conversion, but God chooses a messenger for a reason.
The Hebrews/Israelites didn't trust him because he was raised Egyptian and had a pagan wife.
Jethro [Zipporah's father] was an Arab, IIRC, not a pagan.
The arc of my son's email warnings about possible Washington National Guard in-state deployment:
Man roadblocks to enforce Washington State isolation.
-Nah. Someone in Inslee's office must have looked at a map and been astonished to discover I-5 isn't the only way into our rather large state.
Help distribute emergency supplies to hospitals.
-Nah. Someone in Inslee's office must have actually talked to a hospital and been astonished to discover that the market does it better and faster than government ever could. A Medline, Cardinal, or McKesson truck shows up every day? Who knew?
Riot control training.
-Who are you expecting to riot, Jay? Maybe we should wait on this one
Deploy small groups to food bank centers to pack food in boxes.
WTF? Right now food banks have more volunteers than they can use. They're turning them away to avoid crowding.
Starring Charlton Heston as Moses as Abraham Lincoln
Inslee is the main, who was he running against a lizard.
Inga's a good cook too. She and I should have a show. I'll settle her down when she gets catty and she'll poke at me when I'm getting self-righteous.
And hey don't hassle me about my ice cream. It's the Quarantine 15!
"WTF? Right now food banks have more volunteers than they can use. They're turning them away to avoid crowding."
What? Tired of shelter in place?
Who'd a thunk?
"Irene Cara doing her own dancing"
I'd hate it if she were doing someone else's dancing.
My friend whose restaurant is at risk had something in December that knocked her off her feet and beat her down. Fit all the symptoms. Tested for flu: negative.
So unless there is some unknown third disease out there, she had the covid.
Mark,
I watched that every year as a child. I think it was ABC that used to play once a year on Passover. Maybe they still do.
I was thinking today about the vape device that was associated with death by ARDS (adult respiratory distress syndrome), ARDS also being the lethal signature for covid-19. As I recall it was one particular vape device that was associated with ARDS and it was a black market THC delivery pen. So, was that device manufactured in China ? Could you put viable corona virus in the THC cartridge ? Just thinking out loud.
But what data do we have that is incontrovertibly true? Very little.
@Kyzer SoSay, thank you. Sorting through data that is incomplete, conflicting, and sometimes deliberately false is a serious challenge. To the extent that I have been doing that, it looks to me as though Prof. Battacharya (follow Sebastian's link at 10:09) is probably right. Scientists know what we don't know, and if we're going to fight this disease intelligently then we need to know that.
Perish the thought that maybe the elderly and vulnerable should confine THEMSELVES to quarantine and take THEIR OWN precautions while the rest of us go about our business. I have no issue with the authorities strenuously recommending us to be hygeinic, cough in a safe manner, carry or utilize hand sanitizer, and be extra careful to spray our doorknobs, keyboards, and car keys with Lysol as INDIVIDUAL measures. I vigorously oppose the mass closures we're currently undergoing. It's stupidity overkill times eleventy quadrillion, and it's going to lead to more problems than it's solving (cuz it's not solving shit).
I'm 73 and I agree wholeheartedly. I've been careful when I go out, only going out for medications (picked up via the drive through window) and groceries, exercise, and scheduled medical visits. Others can do the same. I will take mild exception to your parenthetical remark: I view this "shelter in place" as theater, in a manner analogous to the TSA as security theater. So it solves whatever problems that make-believe solves.
Yes, Ken, my 7500 estimate was too low, but I made that estimate when the predictions were for 1 million or more in just the United States. And I didn't double down on it, I just refused to update it until I had more information. Like I wrote last week, I almost surely won't be off by a magnitude like all the other predictions.
Saul was almost certainly one of the favorite pupils of Gamaliel.
When reflecting on the fourth joyful mystery it helps to remember that Gamaliel was certainly old enough to have been present at the Temple during the only episode of the life of Jesus which is recorded in the Bible after the Flight to Egypt but before the events leading up to the Baptism in the Jordan. The writings of Paul may have been closely informed by what Gamaliel had learnt in those days, more than 20 years before his WONDERFUL TRIP TO DAMASCUS
As for Pharaoh, let's not forget that God "hardened" his heart, well that means there was a heart there to be hardened, obviously there are two ways of looking at that, Yul B. did a good job, but there are lots of good actors who could have played Pharaoh well - Ralph Richardson would have been my choice, among English actors, or the guy who did Mr Chips or the guy who did the Hunchback of Notre Dame - (among Americans, I would have to say Jimmy Stewart or Frank Sinatra, yes they both had a dark side) but who among us can even imagine an actor good enough to play someone with a heart who later on winds up being someone important enough to be mentioned in THE BIBLE and whose heart has been hardened by God?????
Not that God literally hardens hearts, of course, no more than he would ever lead us into temptation. But you all would mock me if I quoted the Hebrew verb from the Book of Exodus, and anyway I am too lazy to look it up.
How long had the captivity, 400 years, you can see ramses would be loath to change things
not the first time
More like not the last time.
well the first and third joyful mystery are basically the same event, just as the fourth and fifth are as close as - speaking as someone who considers family important - the birth of a first and second grandchild.
Rameses was not a friend to Israel but he could have been, and for him to be an actual enemy to the people of God, God apparently had to do something like harden his heart.
So he was not derelict in his duties, just an ordinary person who was not all he could be, and who failed to be good-hearted when
to be good-hearted would have made all the difference
it is possible that the little fellow is praying in a Purgatory of some kind even as we exchange our thoughts tonight
On the ABC now.
Cecil B. DeMille just now parted the studio Red Sea pool.
Almost missed it because Yancy enticed me to watch a clip of Frisco and Felicia meeting.
And now . . .
History repeats itself.
Once again, water washes away sin.
@Misplaced Pants, I’m sure your spaghetti was fantastic. Not quite up yo my wife’s pasta, of course, but delicious nevertheless. Tonight’s supper was a variant of Chicken Cordon Bleu, except she rolls the tenderized breasts around prosciutto and cheese, like a sort of a wrap before breading and then baking. I am one lucky summbeech.
Ramses believed in a pantheon of gods seti osoris et al.
Water as in the flood, the wine that would become blood.
Who would have thought it wise to go charging into the held-back waters of the sea and not realize that it could all come crashing down on them at any moment?
to be more realistic, i know lots of people who would never do anything really bad, just like Pharaoh thought he would never do anything bad, but ....
have you ever made someone laugh on a really bad day?
a friend of mine once gave me a phone call and told me about how his business partner had (criminally) embezzled him out of an awful lot of money
my friend gave me all the details - the partner was a friend from high school, it was completely unexpected, and when challenged on the embezzlement, the friend had been stubborn and a frustratingly obvious liar.
what i said, after patiently listening a few minutes, without saying anything, made my friend laugh - you are not going to laugh, you had to be there.
"He was gambling or he did it for a woman"
(the point is, many of us do bad things without even having our hearts hardened)
It was beyond their understanding
"Show me his blood. You couldn't even kill him."
"His god . . . is God."
"Who would have thought it wise to go charging into the held-back waters of the sea and not realize that it could all come crashing down on them at any moment?"
Prisoners of the script.
"Whine, whine, whine. We don't like freedom. It's too hard. Whine, bitch, moan. Let's go back to Egypt!"
An age-old story that repeats itself.
Has ABC continued to show it all these years? I think the last time I watched it was around 1982 or so- when I was 15 years old.
Every year that I can remember.
TCM showed it in the theaters a couple of years ago.
You HAVE to see it on the big screen.
This is the kind of movie that big screens were made for.
"Donald Trump has directly urged Americans worried about Covid-19 to take a little-studied anti-malaria drug for the disease, despite potentially serious side effects and a lack of data on safety and efficacy in treatment of the pandemic virus."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-us-ventilators-new-york-trump-touts-unproven-cure-malaria-drug
--
Keep hope denied!
"We are free."
"There is no freedom without the Law."
Tonight’s supper was a variant of Chicken Cordon Bleu, except she rolls the tenderized breasts around prosciutto and cheese, like a sort of a wrap before breading and then baking. I am one lucky summbeech.
That sounds like a delicious labor of love! You are lucky indeed.
"We are free."
"There is no freedom without the Law."
It's a story of mercy. Not wrath.
The people had chosen to wander in the desert, as humans are wont to do. That was their doing, not God's.
God's doing was to have Joshua lead the people across the waters of the Jordan into the Promised Land.
When the Angel Gabriel announced to Mary the best news that anyone has ever told anyone, she knew that the husband of her beloved Elizabeth was QUARANTINED and DEPRIVED OF HIS SENSE OF SPEECH because of a similar message about John, the son of Elizabeth
When Mary travelled through the hill country to visit Elizabeth and help her at the time of her difficult childbearing (she was not young, Elizabeth, that we know) she could not know that a few months later Elizabeth would not be able to come and repay the kindness by helping her with her childbirth because of GOVERNMENT RESTRICTIONS (the census)
When Jesus was born Elizabeth, nursing the baby John, was not in Bethlehem with Mary, as she would have liked to have been, but was in a different town because of GOVERNMENT RESTRICTIONS
Anna the prophet and the poet of our beloved :NUNC DIMITTIS: would not allow themselves to leave the temple vicinity until they saw the baby Jesus brought there by His parents, they were SELF-QUARANTINED until then
and later on Jesus taught the doctors of the law at that same temple, but not much later. They marvelled at his divine words, and probably were not surprised when, a mere twenty or so years later, Jesus healed multitudes, Paul explains what Jesus must have mentioned at least once when he was teaching at the Temple ----- God loves us all
HIS PARENTS FOUND HIM AND HE EXPLAINED HE WAS DOING THE WILL OF HIS FATHER
God created TIME and TIME loves us all
God gave us patience
God will never harden your heart
Ken B's terrain:
The projection by Public Health Ontario, which is in line with that of other highly credible models, says that over the full course of this pandemic, which may last 18 months or two years, had we done nothing, Ontario may have suffered 100,000 deaths," said Dr. Donnelly during the news conference.
Thanks to the province's health response, such a large toll has been avoided. However, staff did warn that even with the current measures in place, between 3,000 and 15,000 Ontarians could die during the entire pandemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/ontario-canada-coronavirus-warned-to-expect-15000-deaths
Again, people always fall back on bad ways.
Like doing yet another stupid, pointless remake.
No need to be making remakes of Stallone movies or Ahnold movies.
Joe Rogan says he'd vote Trump over Biden. .
By the way, where is Joe? These are perilous times. Is he taking a nap or something?:)
Total recall was particularly bad, it didnt even take place on mars, was piers amthony alive to see it?
There can be only one.
Man, I'm glad they never made a sequel to Highlander!
One Total Recall.
One Judge Dredd.
One Robocop.
And how many remakes of origin stories do we have for the comic book hero movies?
Yeah..that rogan episode is fun. Genius Eric Weintein not liking any pol and pining for hyperspace button.
Clearly our best...and "helpful".
Just like a well-armed dude putting a sign on his door pointing to his moonbat anti-2A neighbor's house with the message, "I'm armed, he's not, choose wisely" for any potential burglars to see
@Kyzer SoSay, point of information, burglars love to steal guns.
Dredd > Judge Dredd.
That Guardian chloroquine piece is very bad. Chloroquine is well studied. It is even well studied with specifically Corona viruses.
I did not see Trump directly tell anyone to take it, nor could he really do that as it’s a prescription drug. It’s side effects and dosage are well understood.
This is so typical of anti Trumpers. There is maybe a legitimate criticism here: maybe Trump shouldn’t be so upbeat on a drug that still might not pan out. But that is not what they do. No, it’s chloroquine the demon drug. And they stamp “Trump” all over the drug so sure are they that he must be wrong, and therefore that it must be a flop.
That is why I said that if chloroquine really is effective, Trump will be the new FDR.
Best part is Weinstein expressing admiration for Amanda Feilding, famous for drilling holes in her head.
It was kind of cool to see the episode of The Goldbergs where there are competing Highlander Clubs at the school and Clancy Brown as the shop teacher tells them . . .
"There can be only one!"
Starting just now on Grit --
"Boy, watch out for that knife."
Watching Live PD and someone called the police in Florida for a suspicious person hanging around a nursing home - the officer found that it was a woman whose husband of 68 years was in the facility following a stroke and she was not allowed to visit him. She would walk across the lawn to talk to him through his window every night. The officer was bawling and hugged the lady and said "Now if you need anything you let me know, ma'am." Good cop. One of the officer hosts said his 103 year old aunt is in the hospital and can't receive visitors.
It's evil that such people are going to die alone. I pointed out to Mr. Pants that stroke or no, I'd bust his ass out of that place and we'd go have some fun and before Thelma and Louiseing it.
Drudge:
"Monkeys and apes chain smoking as panic grips planet"
Missed it last week, but the new season of Call the Midwife has started.
Ok..maybe Amanda Feilding was onto something...
"Hans Gudegast. Christopher George was the star.
Narr
No Eastwood that I remember."
I liked Rat Patrol as a kid, but I laughed at the Nazi Captain for having a pissy rubber tired little tank,
I would watch a remake with Clint as the sergeant and Stalone as the corporal, with the General guy from Battle of the Bulge as the Kraut Captain.
Kyzer SoSay said...
Too late to read the thread because it's bedtime. But I just want you to know I agree with you.
For the record.
"Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak, Democrat, had a kneejerk reaction to President Trump's optimism about a malaria drug that might be an effective treatment for the Wuhan coronavirus. Trump was hopeful about the drug, so anti-Trump Democrats like Sisolak were against it. Gov. Sisolak banned (hydroxy)chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, ostensibly over concern of hoarders stockpiling the medicine and causing shortages for patients who use the drug for other ailments like Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis. But while the governor restricted the public from receiving the potentially life-saving drug, Nevada's Department of Corrections began stockpiling the drug for prisoners.
"Via 360 News Las Vegas)
According to sources at the drug maker, Concordia Pharmaceuticals Inc, Nevada prisons ordered a large number of their anti-malaria Hydroxychloroquine drug under the name, Plaquenli. Nevada prisons has literally ZERO cases of prisoners infected with the COVID 19 virus to date. The Nevada Board of Pharmacies and the Governor claimed the rule barring doctors from prescribing the drug outside of hospitals was to stop hoarding. After Sisolak’s ban went into effect, the State Prison hoarded the drug in a mass just in case they had break out.
Gov. Sisolak refused to reverse his order even after the FDA issued an emergency order earlier this week approving the drug for use against COVID 19."
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/04/04/nevada-governor-found-hoarding-hydroxychloroquine-after-restricting-access-to-the-drug-n2566360
In my maturity I would say that perhaps the pissy rubber tired Nazi tank may have been a good choice in the middle east. One of my first jobs as a young engineer was stripping Michigan hardpan with dozers. It ate their undercarriage and treads. I changed to rubber tired scrapers and finished the job at a profit.
Michael K Question...
What of Ivermectin? I just read some comments it may be helpful. A study said it helped against Malaria.
Google for Ivermectin Covid
Jobless claims '67 - '20
"That'll be the day."
Shit gets real?
"Sobering", Jon Ericson.
But hey..just a few weeks, right...
I'm really fed up with the attacks on Trump over things he hasn't done. For example, Trump expresses hope for this or that (reopen by Easter, start the NFL season on time) and gets crucified for it in the press and by Democrats. They aren't serious and operate in bad faith.
We had shake n' bake pork chops last night. Quite delicious, a bit of a guilty pleasure. We enjoy pork (the other white meat) and there is plenty at our local grocery store.
Glorious spring day in these parts yesterday, supposed to be even better today. I think there is a bike ride in my future.
This is what Trump was hearing from his in house experts when he was “downplaying” the virus. Tell me President Hillary would have reacted any differently.
https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1246098728085336066
"The moment restaurants reopen, I'm gonna blow through a few thou' taking my wife and daughter out for a week straight. And I will tip heartily.”
You think everybody’s gonna do that? You think restaurants are just gonna open up and the customers are going to show up in numbers? The ones not trying to prove some political point? You think people are going to flood into ballparks, concerts (well, maybe), climb on airplanes like they used to?
A lot of this economic damage has been inevitable from the start, and it’s easy to deny when you have someone else to blame. It will be over when it’s over, not before.
I’ll stick with the data, you can stick to opinion pieces from libertarian leaning editorialists and rando blog commenters.
Also, if and when these policies work, that will be taken as proof that they weren’t needed. If you looked back in my comments, you would see that that has been my prediction from day one of this.
It will take years for public activity, particularly entertainment, to get back to what normal was prior to the virus and lockdown.
"It will take years for public activity, particularly entertainment, to get back to what normal was prior to the virus”
Fixed it for you.
Nobody who’s not going back to restaurants after the lockdown is lifted is staying home because it was once locked down. If anything, people are getting stir crazy. So if it’s not the virus keeping them home, I am sure it will be like the end of Prohibition as soon as large gatherings are allowed again.
Unless there is a vaccine, that would be a major development that would change things.
"At least, nobody with a brain.”
It’s true that you can’t make people who are too stupid to understand a thing understand it.
“The real question is, is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable, and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all?”
Peter Hitchens quoting former UK Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption
I give up. Your quote of some guy’s opinion as an authority wins the day. Studies say 10,000 suicides from the financial crisis of 2008. I figure that if you kill yourself because of a business failure, there was probably some pre-existing condition, you know, like having high blood pressure and Wuhan, you didn’t *really* die of Wuhan. So they don’t count, right? They didn’t *really* commit suicide on account of the lockdowns. Which I have said over and over, are overdone, BTW.
But you guys win. Your problems matter more than anybody else’s. Besides, it’s all made up, it’s a hoax, and really the only people who are gonna die would have died within days anyway.
"Isn’t it pretty to think so.” - Hemingway
Get over yourself Tim. It's just a quote and a question we don't have a good answer for. I mean, you, of course, know the answer, but the rest of us are still trying to figure it out. We are making decisions without data and truth about the trade offs. We'll probably never know how many lives were saved by the current policy. We can measure and document the impact to the economy and those that depend on it for their livelihood and existence. The cavalier dismissal of concern about this impact is not helpful and discrediting.
Ivermecton is an old (1975) veterinary drug, that was discovered, like Streptomycin, in a soil bacterium. I have not read of any results on viruses but I'm sure everything is being tried. Especially since the anti-malarials work.
You think restaurants are just gonna open up and the customers are going to show up in numbers?
@tim, actually yes. Some regulars at my local restaurants won’t be able to eat out because they will have been out of work too long, but basically stevew is more right than wrong. Look, tim, we’re all worried about your daughter. Maybe she’ll have to stay indoors and use lots of sanitizer for months after people resume normal activity. As will my wife and I in our seventies. But I am also worried about my neighbor who has put years and years of effort into building his small, closed down business and now he may lose his house as well as business.
"Dredd > Judge Dredd"
AGREED!! "Dredd" was an excellent movie, made even more so by the star never taking his helmet off. Karl Urban didn't want the facetime on screen - he was all-in for a serious adaptation of the source material, and he NAILED it.
"You think people are going to flood into ballparks, concerts (well, maybe), climb on airplanes like they used to?"
Yes, Tim, I do.
Because everyone I talk to is sick and tired of lockdown.
"The cavalier dismissal of concern about this impact is not helpful and discrediting."
Say it louder for the folks in back!
"Get over yourself Tim"
Do the same for this!
"@Kyzer SoSay, point of information, burglars love to steal guns."
Yeah, you're not wrong, but they'll be applying for a Darwin Award if they rob my house while anyone is home. From anywhere in the house, my wife and I can have a gun in hand within 10 seconds, and we have other weapon-y objects all over that can be utilized faster. Moreover, my wife and I heartily agree that anyone who enters our house looking to do evil will exit our house in a zippered-up bag.
It is always obvious when people who have never run a hotdog stand are commenting on economics.
A $22,000,000,000,000 economy that has just lost 25-40% will not bounce back as quickly as it went down. The government money creates perverse incentives. Businesses are shuttering.
And the ROW is going to have it worse than the US.
@Kyzer, if you're still coming around, just make sure you and wife know the applicable laws where you're at. (Getting a concealed carry permit generally helps.) If your state does not have a castle doctrine then you and she may be legally required to retreat to a defensible space.
I watched "Counterpart" on Prime video about a month ago and thought is was pretty good. The story deals with a worldwide pandemic.
Live blogging The Ten Commandments in the comments was an interesting exercise.
Why is this night different from all other nights?
-gpm
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