April 20, 2020
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106 comments:
Forgotten, not abandoned?
I've always preferred Abandoned Luncheonette. Great songs.
Sweet! Finders keepers, losers weepers.
Whenever I see an thingy, abandoned or forgotten, I often think about the affluence we live in during out modern times. Imagine if those toy binocs fell into a time warp and appeared 2000 years ago. What do you think the aboriginal people of the Madison area of 2 millenia ago would have thought of such a wonderous device that makes far away things seem so close?
Are they heavy? Then they're expensive, but 'em back...
I found a really nice lensatic compass in the woods once, sitting on a log where someone had left it.
I figured that since they were lost, eventually they'd come back that way and pick it up, so I left it there.
I can see the coronavirus crawling all over that!
No -- they're at 12:00.
Aww. Hope they come back.
Test link showing overall US death rate.
The whole fucking country needs to go out dancing, get stoned and get laid.
I’m fed up with all this bullshit.
Fuck the authorities. Ignore them. Live free or die!
Gonna have to find out where the speakeasy/whorehouse is located.
Think about this.
During WWII, the guys and gals in the armed forces stationed near the battlefields went out dancing, drinking and whoring all night and they knew quite a few of them were going to die the next day!
It’s time to cease being whining pansies!
Fuck it all and have a good time.
Hey, what's this [see link above]: "It appears normal deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 if the patient is COVID-19+, even if another underlying chronic cause is responsible"
Say it ain't so!
There are the actual numbers people. Overall deaths are lower than they have been since 2016 not adjusting for population gain.
The COVID-19 pandemic is killing fewer people than die in most years. The 2018 flu season killed far more people.
The number of deaths from COVID-19 didn't go past 4 digits until they started counting "presumed" and "assumed" cases.
This is the safest pandemic in the history of pandemics.
The recorded deaths in this series are probably tentative (incomplete) until all reporting authorities submit their final data. We may have to wait 6 months or so to have comparable numbers. Data like this is useful, but it lags events a lot. Its unlikely to be useful over phenomena that took place over the last four weeks.
The sun comes up, the roosters crow.
"This is the safest pandemic in the history of pandemics."
Also consider most people are inside, not dying in more interesting ways.
Some Physics Geek, wrote about how we got to this place
Remember how the social distancing and shutdowns were designed to flatten the curve? And do you remember the purpose of the flattening? That's right: it was to prevent the number of cases from exceeding our medical services capacity to handle the number of cases.
What a Long Strange Trip it's been!
The epicenter of the virus is NYC. The subway system here is like a production line for the virus. At night, the trains are used as a shelter for the homeless. During the days, fewer trains are running. This ensures that everyone gets to travel in a crowded car no matter what time they ride. The MTA employees have been the hardest hit by the disease, even worse than EMTs or police. No effort, so far as i know, has made to furlough obese or hypertensive workers.....I have not seen any criticism directed against the Mayor or Governor for how they have mismanaged mass transit here. The authoritahs just want more money to keep the production line rolling.
Left there no doubt by some intrepid explorer elf ...
The Spanish mortality statistics show a definite spike. Spain has unified data gathering on civil register matters (births, deaths, marriages, etc.) and it seems that system does well on near real time reporting.
Daily (but cumulative) statistical mortality reports from the Instituto Carlos III (which includes many functions dobe by the US CDC) for the duration of the coronavirus plague are here -
https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Paginas/Informes-MoMo-2020.aspx
Get the latest in the series.
The US spike will certainly be even more regional and less pronounced than the Spanish one.
@Althouse
How's Arthur been?
Has he been social distancing-- keeping 6 ft away from the other plants?
Is being house & pot-bound making him ready to break quarantine?
Is there a deck yet to scoot his verdant arse out on to?
Maybe take some pics of the Botanical Bunch and do a montage--
...sort of a 'photo-synthesis', if you will
Washington State.
10 new coronavirus deaths.
600,000 unemployed.
buwaya said...
The recorded deaths in this series are probably tentative (incomplete) until all reporting authorities submit their final data. We may have to wait 6 months or so to have comparable numbers. Data like this is useful, but it lags events a lot. Its unlikely to be useful over phenomena that took place over the last four weeks.
There will be a spike in mortality.
Suicides will go up. There are also food riots happening in numerous places around the world.
Millions of people will die from COVID-19. But it will be from starvation, deprivation, and war.
You know that AIDS still kills a million people a year around the world?
Philippines has had some worrying incidents of unrest.
Countries like that are much closer to the edge, in spite of widespread public and private relief efforts.
They will have to end their lockdowns very soon, or risk real public order problems.
And the front-line authorities there arent likely to insist on enforcing laws the public despises. That above all will force the government to end this. I suspect they are at this point looking for a face saving out.
Achilles,
That thing about trying to teach grandma to suck eggs?
I am your grandma.
Abandonment is bad optics.
Since we all love to warship at the alter of the expert model:
A 1% increase in the unemployment rate in a population of 330 million people leads to an additional 21 deaths per 100,000.
If we raise unemployment by 12% that is over 800,000 suicides.
We have to end the shut down now or thousands will die. The science is settled. The experts have spoken.
binoculars--
the optical version of the "Bicycle built for 2" for Cyclopses's
Dennis Prager mentions what about... The folks who make your blue jeans in Bangladesh, The folks who cut your bananas in Costa Rica, the folks who make your deck chairs in Pakistan?
I think it pretty obvious that all COVID-19 is doing is pulling forward deaths from 2021-2023 into 2020. All the data suggests this is the case. The response, on the other hand, will pull forward even more deaths from the future into 2021-2025- that is the price of a $10-20 trillion dollar response (in the US alone).
This whole coronavirus thing was a near-noshow in the Third World.
Dont worry about Bangladesh.
Is anyone here still for a Nationwide lockdown in the US?
Is anyone here still for a lockdown in their own state?
I live in California (population 40 Million). The No. of Covid-19 deaths are about 1,100 over 3 months. Pretty low.
So, I am for easing the lockdown in California.
Forgotten . . . abandoned . . . deserted. Let's focus, people.
Around here we've been quite successful at flattening curves and socially distancing and all the proper civic hygiene measures, and yet some people I talk to are as terrified as ever.
My wife is on the alert now for the telltale prodrome she has been warned about.
Narr
Can you spell Prodrome?
All we are doing, even if it is efficacious at saving people from COVID-19 (and I don't actually grant that assumption), is trading those lives for other lives, and probably lives with far more QALYs. It will turn out to be a massive net loss no matter how we go about calculating it.
buwaya said...
Achilles,
That thing about trying to teach grandma to suck eggs?
I am your grandma.
>.<
Raw or hard boiled?
There were several parts of Europe where the temperature and humidity levels were in the 5-11 degree celsius band for an extended period during the growth phase of the virus and that have naturally higher density populations and more mass transit.
They also have certain social affectations like kissing each other in greeting.
But it is still all hot garbage.
The numbers just aren't there. 2018 had much higher death totals.
The economy of Bangaladesh and other USA dependents is the point
buwaya said...
This whole coronavirus thing was a near-noshow in the Third World.
Dont worry about Bangladesh.
There is a flu season for a reason.
COVID-19 outbreaks followed a very specific temperature and humidity band all around the world. Deaths tracked these areas very specifically.
Until they started counting "presumed" and "assumed" cases that is.
Do we need to look around for a children’s hospital with child size ventilator masks and small ICU beds. Love in the time of Covid-19.
Watching the May20 oil futures contract for West Texas Crude oil in utter amazement this afternoon. A barrel of oil for May delivery priced at $1.26!! It might even go negative.
"Blogger Nonapod said...
Whenever I see an thingy, abandoned or forgotten, I often think about the affluence we live in during out modern times. Imagine if those toy binocs fell into a time warp and appeared 2000 years ago. What do you think the aboriginal people of the Madison area of 2 millenia ago would have thought of such a wonderous device that makes far away things seem so close?"
People have been working with glass for thousands of years. They must have noticed the way that it distorted the light that passed through it. Imagine people picking up globs of glass, looking through them, putting one glob behind the other and looking at the distortion, for entertainment, if nothing else.
But it took until the 17th century to invent the telescope & microscope, and both were invented in Europe. Weird.
Rumor has it that the eminent Dr Fauchi paid the Luhan Bio-weapon Lab $700,00 to experiment on Bat corona viruses.( Ie., Bill Gates ordered it.)
Yancey Ward said...
Watching the May20 oil futures contract for West Texas Crude oil in utter amazement this afternoon. A barrel of oil for May delivery priced at $1.26!! It might even go negative.
They have no where to put it and they can't dump it on the ground like the thousands of gallons of milk being dumped.
They will actually need to pay people to put it in tanks that have to be hastily built.
Millions of people will die of COVID-19.
Just not from the actual virus.
The food riots have already started.
Nih did along with other agencies.
I still can't comprehend how many of our priveledged celebrities are able to so easily mock people who are protesting for reopenings. Why do the wealthy elite hate poor people so much? What the hell has some unfortunate Walmart shopping Nascar fan ever done to Patton Oswalt to deserve so much derision? Isn't it enough that tens of millions of people have lost their jobs to satisfy the haters hatred?
Because hes a jackass
I just bought a hair dryer. Based on my experience from the sixties, I predict this will soon be a hot item. One of the most annoying things about long hair is how long it takes to dry.
I can't remember the rules. Are posts with photos like this cafe's? Or does it have to be more official? Anyway, beautiful photo. I have some political thoughts that have been "percolating," as Cliff Clavin would say. And no doubt they are just as insightful. But I'll wait until permission comes.
Ingaville:
https://www.jsonline.com/story/entertainment/dining/carol-deptolla/2020/04/18/owner-jacksons-pub-tosa-says-he-open-dining-room-may-1/5161107002/
https://www.jsonline.com/story/entertainment/dining/carol-deptolla/2020/04/18/owner-jacksons-pub-tosa-says-he-open-dining-room-may-1/5161107002/
Going out now to get milk and a box of wine. If I can get up out of my chair. Can I get anything for anybody?
take it as such
has he been in an underground cavern
@Lurker21
some pork rinds n lottery tickets, if you would be so kind
thanks
how does time work
News at a 11- "Fredo Cuomo is a moron."
lets have more of that civility there is this great place in Miami, the juice palace, translated they probably take orders,
Nonapod: "Why do the wealthy elite hate poor people so much?"
They just confirm Althouse's Law, that people don't believe what they profess too believe.
Progs despise the people they claim to "fight" for. Like anything else, poor people are tools.
And the futures contract for May20 in WTI oil just went negative!
This is a brave new world we live in.
he's a punk, like danny strong, a bit player on buffy, who ended up producer on julianne's bender, and the rolling dumpster fire, that is empire, as an uberwoke twit,
And the futures contracts are all under $40/bbl out over two years! This is the market predicting an economic calamity on the scale of the Great Depression, folks.
top men people
Yancey Ward said...
I think it pretty obvious that all COVID-19 is doing is pulling forward deaths from 2021-2023 into 2020. All the data suggests this is the case. The response, on the other hand, will pull forward even more deaths from the future into 2021-2025- that is the price of a $10-20 trillion dollar response (in the US alone).
We call that 'harvesting'. One can expect near-future outbreaks -- of WuFlu or whatever else -- to be much milder mortality-wise as it's already gotten a lot of the vulnerable.
Maybe there is a white van lurking nearby to see who comes along and finds the binoculars interesting.
aditionalguy said...
Do we need to look around for a children’s hospital with child size ventilator masks and small ICU beds. Love in the time of Covid-19.
Fortunately, children are pretty much immune to the cytokine storm effects and are mostly asymptomatic. This is true of most viruses that affect children although measles is an exception.
When I was a resident on Pediatric surgery I operated on the smallest baby ever at the time. She was 1 pound, 10 ounces. Fortunately, she had no trouble breathing as there were no infant respirators at that time. We did not write the case up and a year later, two surgeons in Florida got national publicity for operating on a 2 pound, 2 ounce baby.
Three years later, we did open heart surgery on John Wayne's grandson who had spent 18 months on a new baby respirator. Everyone feared he would be brain injured as he had been in heart failure from birth. Amazingly, by the time we operated on him he was 5 and was a great little kid. Perfectly normal little kid. He is now an entertainment executive.
Pediatric surgery was moving fast in those days.
Supreme Court rules 6-3 in Ramos v. Louisiana to overrule Apodaca v. Oregon and require a unanimous jury verdict in all criminal court cases.
Some thoughts:
1. Another interesting political division in the justices, or maybe I should say non-political, since Gorsuch wrote the opinion joined (in most parts) by Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor and Thomas. Alito wrote the dissent joined by Roberts and Kagan.
2. For what it's worth, I find myself agreeing with the decision but also agreeing with the dissent. Gorsuch persuades me that "trial by jury" means a unanimous verdict. But Alito is right that the ad hominem attacks on Louisiana's and Oregon's racist attitudes are not persuasive. This is especially shown in Sotomayor's concurrence where she openly argues in favor of the ad hominem.
3. I think Gorsuch is having much more of an influence on the court than Roberts. And I think that's a good thing. I just wish he would have left out the ad hominem stuff and stuck to his originalist roots.
4. IANAL, I just find this interesting.
Much better summary of Ramos v. Louisiana by Eugene at Volokh Conspiracy.
Link to decision: Ramos v. Louisiana
Oh the other interesting thing about this decision, there's lots of back and forth between the opinions on stare decisis. Kavanaugh even writes a separate concurring opinion on just that subject.
Melissa & Doug Sunny Patch Giddy Buggy Binoculars. $6.99 at Wal-Mart.
This is the market predicting an economic calamity on the scale of the Great Depression, folks.
The ChiComs and the political left here may finally get Trump.
HR McMaster seems to agree with Trump on Chins. Too bad they could not work together.
Since the heady days of Deng Xiaoping, in the late 1970s, the assumptions that had governed the American approach to our relationship with China were these: After being welcomed into the international political and economic order, China would play by the rules, open its markets, and privatize its economy. As the country became more prosperous, the Chinese government would respect the rights of its people and liberalize politically. But those assumptions were proving to be wrong.
China has become a threat because its leaders are promoting a closed, authoritarian model as an alternative to democratic governance and free-market economics. The Chinese Communist Party is not only strengthening an internal system that stifles human freedom and extends its authoritarian control; it is also exporting that model and leading the development of new rules and a new international order that would make the world less free and less safe. China’s effort to extend its influence is obvious in the militarization of man-made islands in the South China Sea and the deployment of military capabilities near Taiwan and in the East China Sea. But the integrated nature of the Chinese Communist Party’s military and economic strategies is what makes it particularly dangerous to the United States and other free and open societies.
They have lots of useful idiots over here, too.
so if you don't get all the jurors it's hung or a mistrial, how does that work?
If you could buy the May20 contracts at one point today, you could have, theoretically, bought 1,000,000 barrels of oil for $10,000 at the "low" of 1 cent/bbl. Of course, the problem with this plan is that you have to find a place to store 1,000,000 barrels of oil- it becomes your responsibility once settlement day is reached (which is tomorrow, by the way). This is why it traded negative- there were people who had to pay others to take the contract just to avoid having to find a place to store oil. If you owned three large tanker trucks (about 350 bbl capacity each), you could buy one contract today and take delivery tomorrow for $10.
Today would have been a nice day to own a supertanker.
paging Stromberg, to the white courtesy phone,
My three tanker truck plan could have netted $21,000 in profit today all by itself- you buy the May20contract for $10, and sell the June20 contract for $21,000- or you can sell the Aug20 for $29,000.
All you needed were the trucks. Bet those were in short supply this afternoon.
Oh, abandoned toy binoculars hang from the head of the mule
But these visions of our Ann, uh, they seem so neutral and so cruel
Just checked the May20 contract- now trading at minus $28 dollars!!!!!! You can now get 1000 barrels of oil and $28,000 to boot.
Expect some big traders in oil to go bankrupt today.
I missed it- the low in the May20 contract was minus $40!
My three tanker truck plan could have profitted $61,000 today.
Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson
·
1h
Nope, children have such low viral loads that they are much more likely to be infected by adults than the reverse, per the Swiss government, which is reopening schools May 11. https://rts.ch/info/sciences-tech/medecine/11255942-en-suisse-104-enfants-de-moins-de-10-ans-ont-ete-testes-positifs-au-covid-19.html
Quote Tweet
Josh
@jesteinf
· 1h
Who wants to tell Alex that kids can still transmit the virus to those who are at greater risk? https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/s
Anthony: "Yancey Ward said...
I think it pretty obvious that all COVID-19 is doing is pulling forward deaths from 2021-2023 into 2020. All the data suggests this is the case. The response, on the other hand, will pull forward even more deaths from the future into 2021-2025- that is the price of a $10-20 trillion dollar response (in the US alone).
We call that 'harvesting'. One can expect near-future outbreaks -- of WuFlu or whatever else -- to be much milder mortality-wise as it's already gotten a lot of the vulnerable."
You are right of course, so no snark intended, but -- surprise! Other than that it's what happens in every other epidemic.
But This Time Is Different! said the panickers, as they always say. We just don't know! This is so new!
..could have profitted $61,000 today...
...but that's the rub there, innit?
Yep, I didn't have the foresight to rent some tanker trucks for a month. Now, I bet you can't rent one at all anywhere in the US.
On April 20, 1836, the Territory of Wisconsin was established by Congress.
It appears to me some of these governors aren't going to open their economies until until it's a smoldering wreckage.
Until then they'll sit on their asses banning stuff, pretending their working hard to find solutions.
So if the oil price is negative does that mean that the gas pump will spit out bills as I fill up my tank? That'd be pretty sweet.
BOB DYLAN HANDWRITTEN, TIMELY LYRICS UP FOR SALE ....
Worth Millions!!!
https://www.tmz.com/2020/04/19/bob-dylan-handwritten-song-lyrics-original-the-times-they-are-a-changin-subterranean-homesick-blues-lay-lady-lay-sale-auction/
Inga said...
“My crazy guess: The hospitals and nursing homes spent the money on other things.”
Not a crazy guess at all, I agree with you. The nursing home industry is a multi billion dollar industry and one of the dirtiest , most underhanded business there are. They make a huge profit off of warehousing the elderly and most vulnerable people in our society. Nursing homes are hell holes to live in and hell holes to work in, no matter what beautiful furnishings and decor they may have. It’s an illusion. They are chronically short staffed and staff are underpaid and overworked.
From the previous thread, but I just wanted to say that Inga is so damn right on this. I wish there was a way to improve these places, they are mostly scum.
Chinese expansionism protested by Vietnam:
Vietnam protests China’s establishment of Sansha City
Racine Cty Sheriff passes enforcement to DHS
Dr K, my granddaughter weighted 1 lb 10 ounces when she delivered 3 months early in 2004, then spent 3 months in the neonatal ICU at Children's Hospital in San Diego. She spent a lot of time on oxygen, but is perfect today, thanks to the Lord and the good doctors at Children's.
Again with Harvard -- "Experts" there insist that we need to test 50 million people per day before it is safe to re-open.
AOC via Instapundit is saying that with low interest rates and Oil being cheaper than dirt now is time for workers to invest in green energy.
Sounds like the Racine Sheriff has internalized the lessons of "sanctuary cities". What's that about make the other side play by their rules..
AOC: Peak Stupid
that's not how any of it works,
"AOC via Instapundit is saying that with low interest rates and Oil being cheaper than dirt now is time for workers to invest in green energy."
Well, this was the woman who said that now that Amazon won't be receiving tax credits for moving to Brooklyn, the "money" was now available to spend on the public.
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
·
Apr 17
BREAKING from Brazil trial of HCQ for #COVID19
636 outpatients treated with HCQ/AZ vs controls
RESULTS
Only 1.9% treated with HCQ/AZ needed hospitalization vs 5.4% in control group
Hospitalization rate low (1.2%) when treated before 7 days of symptoms
EARLY TREATMENT IS KEY https://twitter.com/marclebiodoura
----
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
·
6h
“In Costa Rica we have been applying hydroxychloroquine since we had a meeting [on March 18] by teleconference with personnel...in Shanghai and Wuhan."
Costa Rica: 6 deaths out of 660 cases (0.9%)
USA: 41,000 deaths out of 770,000 cases (5.3%)
the drug Costa Rica uses successfully to fight covid-19
“We decided to ask for help from those who have gone through this. The experts from Shanghai and Wuhan gave us recommendations for patient management. We were told that it is key that a mild or moderate patient does not become severe. They explained that they used hydroxychloroquine for this, but never azithromycin (an antibiotic for respiratory infections) due to the associated cardiac complications,” Ruiz said.
In the group of 88 patients recovered up to Friday, April 17, the use of this drug has allowed covid-19 control tests to be negative, he added.
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“We receive the information from patients and their doctors, and through online communication with the Ministry of Health, we keep track of side effects. So far, those that have been reported are of the gastrointestinal type,” Obando reported.
“We are not adopting a protocol from another country just for the sake of it. We are responsible and we verify that what they present is true and convincing. Their experience is valid. The studies published are international, but on the other side, we have a life-threatening infection.
“Therefore, it is necessary to approach the patient with decisions based on the best scientific evidence that exists in a situation such as the current one in order to make a public health decision,” Obando said.
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About this major distortion in the death counts due to adding in the unconfirmed presumed "probables," there is no reason that they can't test a dead body, is there?
So there is no good excuse for knowingly and intentionally fuzzing up the numbers here.
Can BAH reporter ever not ask a question in a BAH tone?
$1.49/gal. at Kroger this afternoon, .99 with our March points.
Dollar a gallon gas! That's like 1982 or something.
Narr
Not many places to go, though
Am I the only one wondering about the Drudge like juxtoposition of the binoculars post and the naked man post right below.
Apparently you are.
Narr
Unless it's jumped threads
Oh so alone with my thoughts
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...
@Althouse
How's Arthur been?
Has he been social distancing-- keeping 6 ft away from the other plants?
Is being house & pot-bound making him ready to break quarantine?
Is there a deck yet to scoot his verdant arse out on to?
Maybe take some pics of the Botanical Bunch and do a montage--
...sort of a 'photo-synthesis', if you will
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Haha! Thanks for asking, Ingachuck. Arthur has had his best winter in, what's it been, 9 years? Not over-watering during the dormant months is key to avocado trees keeping healthy green leaves, I am convinced. Now he's ready for a big growing season but will have to wait for the completion of the deck/siding work. Hang on, she'll likely have photos for you in a month or 2.
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