April 26, 2020

"A feared spike in Wisconsin’s coronavirus infection rate following its April 7 in-person presidential primary never materialized..."

"... although some new cases of the virus were possibly linked to the election, according to a report. A team of doctors from Wisconsin and Florida plus a mathematician in Alabama examined data from the post-election period of April 12-21, meaning five to 14 days after election, when new cases of the virus from April 7 likely would have become apparent.... Prior to the election, Wisconsin’s coronavirus infection rate was about one-third of the rate for the entire U.S. and dropped even lower compared to the U.S. after the election...."

Fox News reports.

Perhaps Governor Evers can take this as cue that we're pretty good at getting out and about with precautions and can handle a moderate reopening. (I see that Minnesota is reopening on May 1.)

ADDED: The total number of coronavirus cases in Wisconsin is 5,687 (with 2,525 of that in one place, Milwaukee). The number who have been tested is 62,825. I think Milwaukee should be treated differently from the rest of the state, but there must be strong political pressure to use one approach for the entire state. There's pressure in the other direction too. Here's a picture I took on Friday, showing signs denouncing Evers as a tyrant:

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Click to enlarge the photograph. There are a bunch of signs that say (sarcastically), "ALL HAIL THE EMPEROR." There's a man with a pirate hat and flag holding a sign that says, "Throw Evers overboard." There's a woman with a sign that says, "You peasants better have the King's permission to be outside."

More moderately, there's a woman — the one person wearing a mask — with a sign that says: "You asked us to flatten the curve. We did. Now OPEN Wisconsin."

49 comments:

narciso said...

I dont think he'll learn any lesson from this


sadly

Mr. Forward said...

“Forty people in Milwaukee County may have become infected with the coronavirus as a result of participating in Wisconsin elections on April 7.

Milwaukee Health Commissioner Jeanette Kowalik says data is still being analyzed to show the connection between more people that may have contracted COVID-19 due to election activities, like being a poll worker or voting in person, earlier this month. Kowalik hopes the data will be finalized by May 1.

Wisconsin’s April 7 elections consisted of local races and the presidential primary. Approximately 400,000 people voted in person.”
Teran Powell
WUWM Milwaukee’s NPR

Heartless Aztec said...

Governors across America are facing a deadline. Open your States up soon or lose your job at the ballot box next election or maybe by recall.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Science!

Don said...

As 4000 is 1% so 40 is one really small number. Heck they could have picked it up doing something else.

iowan2 said...

The facts have no bearing on this discussion. I'm so old I remember when Voter ID laws went into effect and activist told us those laws prevented minorities from voting(have never figured out exactly why).
But states that had voter ID laws saw no change in participation.

This is the same. Just because there is no rise in infection, doesn't mean it did't happen,because PEOPLE ARE DYING!

I also stand by my prediction in early February. This event is perfect for using statistics. No matter what narrative you want, there are statistics exist to support your narrative. Only a careful examination will find the truth in statistics
MORE TESTING is the only way forward, except no one can tell me why, and when Birx was pressed for and answer, she admitted it was an element, but not critical.
Taking point take precedent over facts.

rehajm said...

It ain't just Wisconsin sister. It will be fun when as promised the lockdown crackpots return to review the words of the no worse than flu crowd...ha! who am I kidding. That promise won't be kept.

'The lockdowns helped' won't even hold up...

Breezy said...

I liked what one person said - sorry don’t recall who - that we the public have figured out that the govt reports to us, not the other way around. I think most of us understand what we need to do in the way of social distancing and what-not to determine how we can re-open safely and with care for our fellow folks. If we’re at risk we take extra precautions. If we have loved ones at risk we take extra precautions. We know this will be lingering but we have to release these chains to confront and get through it. We have to restart wherever the surge is non-existent or in the past. Many of our industries are now at risk and we have to now save them from this through commerce, not bailouts.

Jim Gust said...

Although some businesses will be allowed to reopen in MN, the schools remain closed through June. So the practical impact of the limited opening is in some doubt, given how many workers rely on public schools for childcare.

Most of the shutdowns were pointless. The one place that should have been shutdown, the NYC subways, still has not been shutdown.

memoriesofus said...

Did we ever get answers about the three large tubs of undelivered ballots from voters in Oshkosh and Appleton? Or was that story conveniently forgotten because it wouldn’t fit the narrative of the “historic upset?”
The media coverage in my area, Western Wisconsin, is dominated by the Twin Cities media market and Wisconsin news is hard to come by. I haven’t seen any answers when I’ve searched MJS or Madison-area news outlets.

stevew said...

We here in MA have seen a spike of late in confirmed cases. Just happens to coincide with a large increase in testing. The thing that hasn't spiked is the "Percentage of Tests That are Positive". That is running in the mid-twenties on average. The occasional spike of this statistic into the low-thirties is offset by the occasional drop into the high teens.

I'd characterize the findings in WI, that there was no spike following the election, as evidence that the people there are "pretty good at getting out and about with precautions and can handle a moderate reopening.".

Fernandinande said...

Come on voter, don't fear the in-person presidential primary
Voter take my hand, don't fear the in-person presidential primary
We'll be able to fly, don't fear the in-person presidential primary
Voter I'm your candidate
La, la, la, la, la
La, la, la, la, la

Shouting Thomas said...

Left out:

266 reported deaths in Wisconsin.

Approximately 65,000 deaths per year in Wisconsin.

If these stats project through the year, 1.5% of deaths in Wisconsin will be attributable to coronavirus.

So, this remains a complete non-story in Wisconsin. The governor is just a tyrant grabbing for power. The Democratic governors are engaging in economic sabotage to undermine Trump.

Temujin said...

Yes, Milwaukee should be treated differently than the rest of Wisconsin. Detroit should be treated differently than the rest of Michigan. New York City should be treated differently than Western New York state. And, some states, such as Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, should be treated differently (by the breathless press) than New York, Detroit, Massachusetts and other more dangerous areas.

We are not all one blanket. And we have brains sitting atop our frames. Many of us can handle spacing, yet carrying on with life.

And the pirate needs a parrot.

Bob Boyd said...

The point of the exercise is to push voting by mail and subsequent ballot harvesting.

narciso said...

Dont let a crisis go to waste, hansons had examples of deleterious instances through history.

Shouting Thomas said...

I don’t understand, prof, why you continue to report the stats and omit fatalities.

Are you trying to hype this non-event?

How many other causes of death that account for 1.5% of deaths would you shut down the state to avoid?

Everybody’s going to be infected, per my GP. That doesn’t really mean much.

Jersey Fled said...

How many people go to food stores each day? Millions? And yet as far as I can tell, no surge in infections among workers there.

I'm sure Inga would have told us if there were.

Calypso Facto said...

Mr. Forward said...“Forty people in Milwaukee County may have become infected with the coronavirus ... Approximately 400,000 people voted in person."

2,382 people in Milwaukee County have tested positive for COVID-19 out of a population of 954,209. So your chance of testing positive in Milwaukee County is 1 in 4,000.

So after the election, they've looked for every possible possible case where someone voted and then tested positive in the next 2 weeks, and (ignoring the fact there's no proof or even circumstantial evidence at this point that these people contracted the disease BECAUSE of voting) that number comes out to 1 in 10,000. Apparently then, you were AT LEAST 2.5 times safer from COVID-19 if you voted in Milwaukee County than if you did not.

And to Ann's point about Milwaukee, the 7 county Milwaukee area and Dane County make up 86% of all Wisconsin COVID-19 deaths. Reopen the rest of the state already!

Automatic_Wing said...

Everybody’s going to be infected, per my GP. That doesn’t really mean much.

I think the results of the antibody testing, provisional as it may be, clearly indicates that everybody is not going to be infected. Everyone may be exposed to the virus, eventually, but a lot of people (what percentage is hard to say) are not going to get sick at all.

Milo Minderbinder said...

From the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford Med Center in an op-ed in the Hill today:
COVID-19 "has been falsely portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation." And: "Let’s stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter."

Read this: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation
And then have a Bloody Mary on the deck and enjoy the outdoors.

ga6 said...

You Wisc people have it could compared to your southern neighbor. Our senior Senator Durban was diagnosing symptoms showing on one of his grandkids, (long distance medicine without training) and was absolutely livid at Republicans and deplorables, There has been no reported followup statements concerning the health of the child, nor any reported followup medical advise or statements from Durbin in the press.

Then we have the junior Senator Ms Duckworth who gave an interview to a local TV reporter two days ago and stated that she believed the lock down of the state should continue for another four months through the end of October.

Rosa Marie Yoder said...

Temujin is correct. Why won't it happen? Because it would be racist, don't ya know. So the tyranny will continue until the adults have had enough and rise up.

Curious George said...

"Calypso Facto said...
Mr. Forward said...“Forty people in Milwaukee County may have become infected with the coronavirus ... Approximately 400,000 people voted in person."

It's less than forty. At least one person had to have it prior and brought the infection to others. There were five polling places in Milwaukee, and more throughout the county. I'm guessing it was more like 30.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

One of the smarter governors needs to order schools back in session. Kids aren’t affected by this, and we will get a jump start on teaching frequent hand washing and other habits students should adopt. Kids need the structure. Parents need the schools open to return to work. We can have some assessments done to see if ANY impact to student learning happened during forced online learning (I’m still waiting for the follow-up to the story about 80% absenteeism for LAUSD online classes). And teachers can help with the “return to normal” in opened areas, just like they did after 9/11. We can adopt the temperature check protocol, and maybe we should have always been excluding the feverish from classes anyway.

My premise is there is much More to gain at this point from reopening schools than leaving them shut. We want herd immunity and we want it now. The failure of the “voting will kill you!” party to gaslight Wisconsin has opened a lot of eyes in the Badger State. Now let ‘em get back to work!

jaydub said...

It looks like people are starting to wise up and do their own analyses as I have been doing for several weeks using NC state health dept data for our 10.5 million population. In North Carolina, the latest analysis shows 27% of the 8623 lab ID’ed cases and 51% of the 289 deaths are in congregant living facilities (nursing homes, assisted living and prisons) and those percentages have been remarkably consistent over the last three weeks.

- Two percent of the cases and 0% of the deaths are in school age children.
- Seven percent of the cases and 0% of the deaths are in young adults aged 18 – 24.
- Forty percent of the cases and 4% of the deaths are adults 25 – 49.
- Twenty-seven percent of the cases and 11% of the deaths in ages 50 – 64.
- Twenty – five percent of the cases and 85% of the deaths in ages 65 and older.

ARM, Inga and the Ken-the-Canuck's political agendas not withstanding, if you are not old or infirm or housed with other old and infirm and/or not in one of the several congested urban hot spots, this disease is a non-event. The reaction by the government at all levels is nothing but CYA alarmism or active subversion of the economy. Nothing else makes sense. This is the week I start civil disobedience of stay at home orders while maintaining social distancing. One of the Karens needs to report to the gestapo.

Michael said...

Pick the number that suits your objective. The higher plausible number the better. There are so so many people who are disappointed at this low number. Bad reporting.

Milo Minderbinder said...

Two California ER docs share their experience and data with some of our (hopelessly un-) enlightened media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw&t=627s

The full 50-minute interview garnered over 1.3mm views in less than three days.
The initial modeling erroneously ventured incidence and death models on bad data and Bayesian statistics. That's what epidemiology (and other science disciplines) grad students do. Now that the data is rolling in, who needs Bayesian stat models? You know.

Tommy Duncan said...

I'm beginning to think the Democrats are trying to use the lock-down to morph COVID-19 into a second crisis: The insolvency of major left leaning states. That would allow them to wash away Democratic financial mismanagement with bankruptcy at the state level. That, in turn, would cause the further expansion of federal power through bailouts.

Original Mike said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
David Begley said...

One person on Twitter thought the Madison rally would cause the death of millions. The Progs are crazy.

Original Mike said...

"Perhaps Governor Evers can take this as cue that we're pretty good at getting out and about with precautions and can handle a moderate reopening."

Evers does not want to reopen Wisconsin. It is politically advantageous for him to keep us locked down.

Clyde said...

I read yesterday that the guy in charge of Virginia’s health department said that he could see Phase 1 restrictions lasting up to two years. While Gov. Northam said that would not be the case, it shows how myopic the bureaucrats’ vision is. Their actual state motto is Sic Semper Tyrannis. We Americans are the descendants of people who fought to overthrow King George III, and would have no problem overthrowing tyrants in Michigan, Virginia or any other state. The American people have shown a lot of patience, but it is not infinite.

rastajenk said...

In the photo, what's up with the foreground person with a tail pipe, literally?

Hey Skipper said...

Yancey was right all along.

Calypso Facto said...

Curious George said... "I'm guessing it was more like 30."

I'm guessing it was more like ZERO that can be directly attributed to voting only, but I was using the using the number given to show that as a "worst case" it's still less than the general population.

Mr. Forward said...

“When you’re about to get run out of town on a rail, get out in front and call it a parade”.

Yancey Ward said...

Oh, boy, Inga will lose her shit when she comes across this post.

Narr said...

I think Tailpipe Man is toting a handtool of some sort--the tail is just an illusion.

We've had a month plus of shutdown and distancing here. Our state population is just shy of 7 million. There are 9200 confirmed cases, 4500 recovered, and 178 dead among them. County pop about 935K, 2000 cases, 1000 recovered, 43 dead. I don't have clear info on amount of testing, though I know there is some.

Let those who have to work, work.

Narr
They've done their part!

n.n said...

Ironically, sarcastically a pro-choice rally. No Fetal-Americans a.k.a. "babies" were planned/aborted. Some services are more essential than others.

Sebastian said...

"5,687 (with 2,525 of that in one place, Milwaukee). The number who have been tested is 62,825"

And deaths projected, per IMHE:

"Wisconsin April 11: 357, April 15: 338, April 22: 356"


Sebastian said...

"if you are not old or infirm or housed with other old and infirm and/or not in one of the several congested urban hot spots, this disease is a non-event"

Exactly. That was the pattern from the outset. Now clear to everyone but the most bad-faith alarmists.

Dad29 said...

Best sign I saw was carried by a Darth Vader-costumed demonstrator: "I Am Jealous of Evers' Power."

Birkel said...

It's nice when events prove you right all along.
More people should try it.
It's a decent way to live.

Paul From Minneapolis said...

Minnesota is not reopening May 1st. A few types of businesses that don't have direct customer contact are being allowed to reopen if they have detailed safety plans in place. It's far from a full reopening.

Bunkypotatohead said...

The Dems are gonna call for the Presidential election to be postponed, claiming blue states are in too much disarray following the pandemic.
When that fails and Trump is reelected, they'll call him an illegitimate tyrant who must be impeached a second time.

RichAndSceptical said...

Hard to believe some PhD or grad student hasn't studied the demographics of who is being hospitalized with the virus. How many live in public housing, how many live in an assisted living facility, how many got the virus while being hospitalized for something else, etc?

They keep telling us about the people who died, but not the people who are hospitalized. For that matter, they aren't telling us the demographics of who has had the virus and did not need to be hospitalized. What are the demographics of people with virus who are asymptomatic?

Char Char Binks, Esq. said...

* "A Hoped-for Spike..."

Kirk Parker said...

RichAndSceptical,

It's not hard to understand, or at least it shouldn't be, that some of these stats lag far behind the actual events.

Consider that the CDC's own decade review of influenza still marks the previous 2 winters' data as "provisional".