I wrote on February 12th — less than a month ago — reacting to "The spectacular collapse of Joe Biden as Democratic frontrunner," a NY Post headline after Biden came in 5th in New Hampshire.
What an incredibly strange turnaround! Was it because he was in fact right that "it's all about South Carolina"? Was it that Bloomberg's strategy was so disruptive and distracting that it let Bernie Sanders slip to the front and that caused a panic and a stampede toward Biden?
My words from February 12th are not that ridiculous: "He's not going to make it, and he doesn't deserve to make it... He's... standing in the way of others but unable to succeed himself." That's still true as it relates to the general election. And "He's the Jeb" in the sense that Jeb would — in all likelihood — have gone on to lose to Hillary Clinton (and I think Biden will lose to Trump).
It bothers me — I won't say "amazes me" — that we Americans put so much time and effort into selecting major-party candidates for President and we end up with such a wearisomely inadequate, bland old politician, the very person who would have been selected if, without all this fuss, the party had just given the nod to the next person in line. It's so dispiriting that it's come to this!
ADDED: "You got a choice between Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie," said Trump, in early May of last year, prompting me to say: "There are a lot of Democratic candidates but they're all pathetic. It's the choice of no choice — 'a choice between Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie.'"
And here is Trump last April:
Welcome to the race Sleepy Joe. I only hope you have the intelligence, long in doubt, to wage a successful primary campaign. It will be nasty - you will be dealing with people who truly have some very sick & demented ideas. But if you make it, I will see you at the Starting Gate!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 25, 2019
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136 comments:
Well Dems picked the same as the party would have, but Republicans sure didnt in 2016!
I think it was South Carolina, plus the DNC muscling the lesser candidates out of the race. The establishment's string pulling worked this time.
He's a placeholder. I don't wish ill on the man, but he's clearly not well and something is going to incapacitate him. Someone is waiting in the wings. Who that is? Who knows?
What we need to watch is what the DNC tries to pull off while we are all gaping at the inevitable Joe Schmoe implosion.
Maybe it's a lot harder to run for president than any of us can appreciate. Half the job is trying to make yourself adequately known to the public so they feel comfortable with you.
It's a long time until November, too soon to speak of any electoral certainties. A lot can happen. That said, if I was a Democrat I'd be dispirited.
What if Joe wins the nomination but refuses to accept on the advice of doctors and his wife?
What (WHO?) caused BOTH Krowbar and buttifuc to 'decide' to drop out BEFORE super tuesday?
Can ANYONE (ANYONE?) give an example, of some who, in the 1st 3 races came in:
...tied for 1st
...close second
...in the top 4
then, 'decides' to QUIT?
????
Can ANYONE (ANYONE?) give an example, of some who quits the DAY BEFORE HER STATE'S PRIMARY?
You have to make yourself known, then once people know you, they have to like you. Plus you have to be able to convince people that you can do "the hardest job in the world." Not easy!! Joe can do, maybe 2, probably not 3.
Seems like folks are deeply following Althouse advice re opposing new/different stuff.
It was too much reliance on the history of these things. There's a three or four what slog around Iowa in the lead up then it's over by New Hampshire. It's easier to run a campaign with free social media so it took a little longer to weed out the dead wood and get to the dead wood the party wanted. Interestingly if you had paid any attention to the polling Biden isn't a surprise at all. Perhaps if you were excited by one of the also rans it blinded you a bit...
Remember this whole primary stuff is a political contrivance. A show put on to rally up the voters. A narrative.
The powers probably aren't done feeding you their narrative, either...
"the very person who would have been selected if, without all this fuss, the party had just given the nod to the next person in line. It's so dispiriting that it's come to this!"
That's because, with the "establishment" of both parties, it's primarily about political power, not performance/service to the country. That's obvious in the way both parties have reacted to Pres Trump's election.
Remember the Wellstone rally?
When it is announced on the 1st day of the convention; That Biden passed in his sleep the night before
THINK OF WHAT A RALLY THEY'LL HAVE!!!
sure, some neighsayers will be saying;
"we haven't seen Biden for a month and a half, did he Really die last night?"
but, that's the way neighsayers are!
Trump was not a bland old politician in 2016 and is not in 2020.
Identity politics, including Althouse's feminism and gay worship, did this to the Democratic Party.
Nostalgia for the good old 60s is a form of cultural Alzheimer's. The constant search for the next victim group is the proximate cause for the demolition of the Democratic Party.
Biden is all that's left when you subtract the identity politics practitioners.
Not sure why Althouse is so certain Biden will lose. This seems to be a continuation of her surprise that Trump could win in 2016. In a two-horse race, with very few rules and considerable uncertainty about events, both men have a shot at winning. If the current stock market fall reflects the bursting of a stock bubble then Trump is probably the underdog at this point. If the virus keeps going in other western countries the way it it is going in Italy he is also likely to be in trouble.
Yes. Yes it is. Trump the outsider was something unusual, a fresh face in DC, and brought a new perspective that was lacking sorely in most POTUS and that is real-world experience. He was at the other end of all those regulations as a private developer. He wasn’t a law maker. He was a normal person used to living within the law, not an insider like Joe who has learned all the insider tricks to bending and circumnavigating the jaws he passed on the Little People. Big difference. Completely overlooked by corporate media. But normal Americans see what DC tried to go to the outsider and we have a good idea what game they are protecting.
FTR I’m an American. I spent several times more time tying my shoes v everything re this primary stuff. Maybe I’m not an outlier. Maybe Althouse is.
I dunno.
Biden was right about it all being about SC but the reason he said that was not apparent to outsiders at the time. In hindsight it's pretty clear that the party powers were looking for a clear signal from SC about whether to back Biden or Bloomberg for Super Tuesday, planning to go all-in on one and abandoning the other as soon as SC results were clear (assuming there was a clear decision there). Mayor Pete and Warren and Klobuchar were already second-tier, it was a matter of whom they would endorse as they left the race.
Of course, all but the top 0.0001% didn't know that plan, we just thought SC was significant for itself and its location and demographics.
It's hard to square, the Dems instruction on the 27 amendmant, and then the Dems choosing Biden.
It is not partisan sniping, that Biden is cognitively compromised. He is that lovable Uncle that is still fun, but not hitting on all cylinders, and its progressive. anyone in their 60's has experienced loved ones exhibiting exactly what Biden is experiencing. For Dems to continue this charade is elder abuse.
“Reasonable” people don’t scare monger over a virus that’s spreading so slowly and being contained and killing so few compared to H1N1. Why are you panicking?
Ann, I completely get your sentiments. I have often said that in my life, I've never had a person I truly want, admire, and would follow as President. I've typically voted for the lesser of two evils (Dole...ugh), or voted against both parties (Harry Browne...what a waste). Trump was an unusual sort. I was voting for a man to go in there and shake the blanket that resided over Washington. I can say that he's accomplished that task. He has not shaken off the fleas, but he's sure got them scurrying about to get him out of office in any manner possible.
They tried a coup (Russia). They tried to impeach him for being...Trump. They've had the 24 hour media going for 3+ years, non-stop to denigrate both him and those who voted for him. They were willing to maybe, possibly look at a non-entity by the name of Beto to run against him because Beto could jump up on a bar, wave his hands frantically and say things. Or Kamala because black woman. Or Elizabeth because professor with temper woman. Or Petey because gay man. Or or or....Bernie. Even a God-damned socialist because, well, he may bring out the voters better than anybody. (we'll deal with the socialism part later). But then they realized the socialists would behead us all, even establishment Dems. So the word went out. BIDEN. Joe, though he was not liked enough to win anything when he was younger, more aggressive, still full of shit, but more vibrant. That Joe, who is now doddering, unable to focus enough to complete a sentence. Has uncontrollable outbursts of weird angry attacks. Joe who once said Obama was the first nice articulate, clean black man to run for President. They are so desperate, they are lining up behind this Joe.
I feel your pain, Ann. But not enough to vote for that clown. Once the dust settles from the awe-inspiring Dem Convention in Milwaukee, you'll see the press spend their time going gaga over the VP (who will be a woman) more than they will go gaga over Joe. And when we've all got to listen to Joe at work, you'll end up wanting Trump. At least with Trump you know what you're getting.
Yale Psychiatrist Who Has Called Trump Mentally Unfit For Office Refuses To Offer Diagnosis Of Joe Biden
What happened to Yale?
Biden is the most electable Democrat.
After all the Sturm und Drang of the last four years, this is the residual truth facing the left.
The Bernie and AOC wing are 99% of Twitter and 30% of the party.
But that 99% has crippled the growth of more centrist Dems.
The dems are taking the alternative of Trump as license to choose the ridiculous that nevertheless supports the party's establishment.
I can't find a prediction market site making book on When will Sanders drop out and endorse Biden?
I say never. Never works for me.
"DOCTOR" Jill Biden, second female president of the United States. The first was Edith Wilson, President during the Spanish Flu. How ironic.
Let's pretend that Biden will win. Is there any argument that he will be not be limited to a single term by his age and cognitive state? Is there any argument that he will not be subject to manipulation from "the man behind the curtain"? Is there any argument that we will not be voting for the vice president as much or more than the actual candidate?
After the events of the past couple of years, can we make a case that the Democratic party will have too much respect for the constitutional process to not manipulate the process before and after the election to preserve the jobs of the boomer (and older) gerontocracy that is still in control of the party. What will be Hillary's role?
The “circular firing squad” of the phony victim groups took out all the spoiled white kids pretending to be n^ggers.
That leaves the Dems only with abject pandering to blacks. Biden, at age 68 and as a knighted Obama butt kisser, is the lone survivor.
And what’s even more amazing is that Biden is bringing out the voters in droves. It’s being reported that voter turn out has been huge. Who knew the old bland guy could motivate so many voters. Or is it Trump who’s motivating them to come out and vote against him by choosing Biden, who has the black vote.
"(Trump) was a normal person used to living within the law...."
There are two errors in this statement.
Excuse me, Biden is 78. Inga is deep in dementia.
Corrupt and senile is no way to go through the presidency Joe!
"Hold my beer” - Democrats
“There are two errors in this statement.”
We are talking about the law as written, Robert. Not that imaginary law you carry around in your head to declare everybody you don’t like “criminals."
Cook the commie lies again.
The Dems couldn’t specify a single violation of law in their bogus trial.
we end up with such a wearisomely inadequate, bland old politician, the very person who would have been selected if, without all this fuss, the party had just given the nod to the next person in line. It's so dispiriting that it's come to this!
What political party wouldn't want that to be the case? After all, it is why they exist, to control the outcome for predictable results. That wouldn't be so bad if, when in power, they continued to deliver predictable results.
Remember that it’s business as usual to squeeze weak and poor countries like Ukraine for graft. That’s not corruption to sell influence to make your family rich, it’s the American way!
We learned that from impeachment. What is corrupt is to point it out. That is "criminal."
"I've typically voted for the lesser of two evils..."
A practice that inevitably leads to our current situation, where both major parties are half-assed and corrupt, and our candidates are all shit.
"or voted against both parties...what a waste)."
Not a waste at all. It's the only honorable choice for someone who refuses to validate either of two (or more) wretched candidates with his or her vote. It's the same as voting "None (or neither) of the above," a voting choice we should formally have on our ballots. If none/neither of the official candidates receive a certain number (or percentage) of votes relative to the others, (including the "none/neither of the above" choice), then "no winner" is declared and the process starts over again, preferably with new candidates.
The suburbs and black voters will be the ones who will come out and vote for Biden.
Shouting Thomas who just got Biden’s age wrong by 10 years says I’m deep in dementia?
“Biden, at age 68 and as a knighted Obama butt kisser, is the lone survivor.”
LOL!
It's just like 2016. Primary voters are coalescing around the alternative to Bernie who has the most name recognition.
"Biden, who has the black vote."
There you go again—assuming "the black vote" is a thing that can be owned, possessed, bought and sold—a tradition with deep roots in the Democratic Party. What next—you'll want to move to a city named after a 18th century slaveholder?
Why should Bernie give up his revolution, his movement? He should pick Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate and do it right away. Go all the way through the convention, the nomination (of Biden) before peeling off. He could be the Green Party's candidate without even being asked. Why surrender, Bernie? Why not live until you die?
Both Bernie and Joe will lose to Trump but with Joe, they have some hope of saving down ballet Dems. Bernie would have been a total disaster.
I don't see any parallels between Trump's election story and the one Biden or Hillary or the player to be named later is trying to write but I'll agree with ARM that a couple of quarters of sclerotic or negative GDP growth or an electorate sitting in bed with the covers over their head for six months will do funny things to their electoral psyches...
The black vote is “owned, possessed, bought and sold” with quotas and welfare.
Blacks seem to like it that way.
And, from my experience, they don’t care to share that booty with rich white women and the gay men Althouse fetishizes.
The tiny problem is Biden's obvious cognitive decline.
Showed my wife Joe's Declaration of Independence speech yesterday. She isn't political at all and isn't following the race. She was shocked that Democrats would run someone who was so obviously impaired.
The longer the Democrats and the MSM go after Trump, my desire to see him re-elected goes up.
What's becoming more and more clear is that there are a lot fewer people willing to vote for a Socialist Crazy Bernie, than people have been projecting. Which does not surprise me at all.
“There you go again—assuming "the black vote" is a thing that can be owned, possessed, bought and sold—a tradition with deep roots in the Democratic Party. What next—you'll want to move to a city named after a 18th century slaveholder?”
What assumption? Look at who is coming out to vote for Biden. Who is paying black Americans to come out and vote for Biden in the huge numbers that they are?
Now that Biden is the presumptive nominee we'll see a non-stop attack on Trump from Biden, the DNC and the Democrat media. Prepare yourselves for 8 months of mud slinging.
But, as they say, don't wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig enjoys it.
All is proceeding as I have foreseen.
Althouse is struggling with the fact that the Demmie bench was cleared of its future ten years ago in the 2010 election. You had Obama--that was great--but then what? A bunch of senators, a few governors, and a scheming ex-presidential spouse with huge negatives. So we had a boomer election, Trump vs. Clinton, and a lot of people had had it with the Clinton entry. Also, the Demmies struggle with the fact that their most loyal voters--academics, Black Americans, and single women--are monolithic in their voting, but not broadly based in society, and therefore spend a lot of time talking to each other and don't have much time for the rest of us.
Who is paying black Americans to come out and vote for Biden in the huge numbers that they are?
The Democrats, via welfare and quotas.
Biden is the only reliable bagman for blacks.
The rest of the Dems are split between giving the welfare and quotas to rich white women and gays.
Biden seems like an avatar that can be controlled by others who want to assume un-elected power. Jill Stein has been going after his obvious mental decline for the last few days. This is gonna get weird.
Doesn't seem real. I don't think he is going to be the name on the ballot for Dems in Nov. Something sinister is up....
"Who is paying black Americans to come out and vote for Biden in the huge numbers that they are?"
You might have a point. It's 2020. Perhaps it's the other way around now: It's the black Dem voters who own Biden.
The problem with the black vote for Democrats is that they can’t suffer many defections in the general and still win. Which is why it’s pretty funny to me that the Democrat Party has sold out black Americans who want to work over immigrations. Bernie used to understand this, probably still does, but he had to change his position to win, same as he did 2A.
Trump gained attention in 2016 by calling out stupid politicians as stupid, incompetent, corrupt....
Biden is trying the safe approach, but he directs his ire at voters who dare to ask him a question. It's gonna get worse.
The field was so incredibly crowded to begin with, I can't even remember all that people who were running at the start but now they are all gone. The Democrats are left with Joe Biden. An incredibly lucky politician and it could be possible he stays that way beyond all reasoning and calculation. Meaning, he could win it all. Because it's some weird, inexplicable configuration of events and circumstances that made this possible to begin with so we just can't know until we get there.
Or maybe Joe Biden sold his soul to the devil.
Predictit will likely have a Bernie endorsement prop once he drops out of the race. Currently you can get an endorsement prop of Liz and Barack
Which is why it’s pretty funny to me that the Democrat Party has sold out black Americans who want to work over immigrations.
Have they sold them out, or do the majority of blacks prefer the welfare and quotas?
the democrat bench sure was deep!
Tulsi Gabbard.. pretty! pretty much a socialist, but old guys wanted her
beta o'rourke.. meth addicted bass player (from a garage band), pretended to be mexican
kamela harris.. prostitute, that sucked her way up
cory booker.... Spartacus! He's NOT GAY!!
"mayor" pete... former mayor of a rust bucket town, REMF, red diaper baby... GAY!!!
liz warren..... pow wow Chow!!!!
Amy Krowbar.... Salad Comb! wanting to best Mondale; didn't Even RUN in her home state
bernie sanders. a 95 year old SOCIALIST (You Kids! GET OUT OF MY YARD!!!)
Jo Biden....... Well, Son of a Bitch; he got fired! MULTIPLE Brain surgeries
did i miss any?
The people that the Democrats are working to flood the electorate with are less monolithically Democrat than the black Americans and union members that the Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to replace. It seems pretty racist of Democrats to assume that black Americans wouldn’t notice what is being done to them by the party that takes them for granted.
South Carolina = blacks.
What was the breakdown of the states from yesterday, in terms of demographics. Maybe the Dem voters just don't like Commies.
THEOLDMAN
"Have they sold them out, or do the majority of blacks prefer the welfare and quotas?”
How many black people do you know personally? Do you really think that is what they want? The ones you actually know? Or are those people ‘different’?
Not to mention that Republicans have no shot with white people who want handouts for doing nothing from the government.
"We are talking about the law as written, Robert. Not that imaginary law you carry around in your head to declare everybody you don’t like “criminals."
Florida Man Cookie has to maintain his status as the resident edgy dissident where no one is radical enough for his standards. He can't afford to look bad in front of his avant New York City (where he lives, by the way) crowd.
I believe Joe has Alzheimer's. Look up the stages. He is in stage 2 now. I blame his wife. Shame on her for letting him go on and act the fool picking fights with voters. Democrats don't care as long as they can get him in, then they will get rid of him. Hillary to the rescue. Democrats suck.
"Hey, com'n, lady, you criticizing me, trying to spread marlarky about me? I'm as good and sharp as I've ever been. You don't believe me? Okay, we'll take it outside. Yeah, outside, right now"
“It seems pretty racist of Democrats to assume that black Americans wouldn’t notice what is being done to them by the party that takes them for granted.”
It seems pretty racist of you to assume that black Americans are having things “done to them” and that if something is really being “done to them”, they wouldn’t rise up and stop it. You have very low expectations for black Americans ability to understand what is going on.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, it's pretty hard to really defend and support Biden, so they only have attacking Trump, but that has kind of worn out as a past time. Negativity 24/7 for four years is just getting tiresome.
What did we learn in 2016?
Voters do not select the nominee, the Party does.
Both the DNC and RNC said so explicitly.
Reminds me of Mark Evanier's story of a painful Groucho Marx performance in front of an audience of distressed fans:
The evening was a success and then it wasn't. Groucho received an endless cascade of ovations, usually standing. But the audience, outwardly applauding, was inwardly cringing. Groucho was very old and his show consisted of him standing at a podium. Why he wasn't sitting, I don't know, but his promoters sprang for exactly no scenery or props. He seemed to have aged twenty years since when I'd seen him at Hillcrest Country Club.
He stood there and read card after card of anecdotes, sometimes breezing from one to the next with no notice that a laugh was supposed to come between stories. At one point, he read a card introducing a film clip, then continued right on into a story about something else. His secretary-manager-companion Erin Fleming hustled out from the wings to force him into a chair, saying, "We're going to show A Night at the Opera."
Groucho muttered, "But I've already seen it," triggering an immense laugh at the one and only ad-lib of the evening.
Later, he stopped in mid-anecdote to request that his piano player (a then-unknown Marvin Hamlisch) do his Johnny Mathis impression. Hamlisch was startled, but, realizing it was Groucho's way of asking for a break, he launched into the imitation. When Mr. Marx tried to perform "Lydia, the Tattooed Lady," Hamlisch had to prompt him on many of the lines, helping him along the way a third-grade teacher might coach a pupil who had blanked on the poem he was supposed to memorize and recite.
Since this song had been in Groucho's repertoire for more than thirty years, the audience couldn't help but feel cold chills at the lapse. I think, if there had been a tactful way of stopping the show and polling those present on whether they wanted Groucho to continue or to be taken home and put to bed, the vote would have been unanimous for bed.
Instead, we all pretended that nothing was amiss and applauded Groucho long and loud. It was the greatest bit of acting I have ever seen performed by an audience.
“ Not sure why Althouse is so certain Biden will lose.”
Because he is too corrupt and way too senile and demented. Most anyone else might give him a pass on the dementia, but Trump won’t. Partly, it will be because the stakes are too high to play nice. And partly it is personal. Biden was Obama’s VP, and Obama had Trump and his campaign illegally surveiled, with phones tapped, emails read, tax returns scrutinized, utilizing the Deep State bureaucracy. And then they were able to use their fabricated Russian Collusion hoax against Trump to fight Trump with the bureaucracy for better than two years. Then, it became personal with Biden, when Trump’s call with the Ukrainian President was used to impeach him, on the basis of Biden’s candidacy. And his candidacy is protecting both him and his son (brother, etc) from serious investigation by the Feds for the graft they committed while Biden was VP. But Trump isn’t any dummy - the Ukrainians, trying to curry his favor (remember, Obama, catering to Russia, refused to give weapons (esp our antitank missiles that could have stopped the Russian military attacks) to Ukraine, Trump did, continues to do so, and Biden would likely go back to Obama’s policies) are doing his dirty work, openly now investigating both Bidens.
I don’t think that Trump attacks Biden directly over corruption, but his son is such a target rich environment. Hunter’s latest is that he has asked to delay his child support court hearing due to the ChiCom Coronavirus. Not going to last. That judge is getting frustrated for all of the obstruction he is encountering. He was just too blatant in his grafting, and is a totally unsympathetic character. Whatever cute charisma Old Joe has, is completely missing in his entitled son. But the big attack is likely to involve Biden’s dementia. Trump is already doing his with Biden, imitating his jumbled speeches and public encounters. The guy can’t even remember what state he is in, or what office he is running for. Imagine Trump, at one of his rallies, imitating Biden with his little skits, one after another. He doesn’t even have to make things up. Think about how he imitated Strzok and Page through his creative and impassioned rendering of their text messages. Biden already provides much better material for this. Highlighting every Trump rally are going to be a number of these, to the point that his supporters know them by heart, and are probably chanting along with him.
Of course, Biden isn’t going to be President, or if he is, it will be no longer than necessary to slide in a replacement via the 25th Amdt. He is no longer mentally competent to be President, and top Dems know that probably better than the public does. He is a temporary placeholder for the Dem establishment. The big question is, who do they have slated to replace him, when the time is right? Are they able to resist the pressure by the Clintons to give the Crooked One another chance at grafting even more millions? Or are the Obama’s still ascendant and in control? And when is the right time? (Yancey is predicting roughly July). We shall see.
“I believe Joe has Alzheimer's. Look up the stages. He is in stage 2 now. I blame his wife. Shame on her for letting him go on and act the fool picking fights with voters.”
Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. Trump has words, lots of words.
Didn’t Trump say he wanted to punch a protestor in the face? Wasn't that protestor a voter too?
“Because he is too corrupt and way too senile and demented.”
Despite being all those things Trump won.
Until now, Biden's entire campaign message was "we have to get back to being civil and respectable".
Going to be interesting to see what they pivot to, and how they handle Biden's Ukraine problem outside of "conspiracy theory!".
60s liberalism is on its death bed. Since 1968 you have had 3 democratic presidents. One a peanut farmer who no one listens to, one who is remembered for a blow job in the oval office and one failed miserably on great expectations. Your policies of welfare, equality feminism and globalism are all false constructs. It has become apparent that the long arc of 60s ideology is communism.
The Democrats have been very good at enforcing party unity for decades. This rallying around Biden is just the next expression of that. I'm surprised they were so blatant about it this time, but then again they didn't have superdelegates to exploit this time around.
Michael Tracey
Verified account @mtracey
Bernie had staggering amounts of money, universal name ID, and four years to plan
He won 46% of delegates in the last cycle, never stopped running for president, and had a nationwide organizing network
If you don't think is a failure of the Left, you are deluding yourself
Indeed.
What's really amazing about Joe's deteriorating condition is how feeble and doddering he appears now compared to 2016. He looks like a different person. Just imagine what he will be like by 2020.
“Just imagine what he will be like by 2020.”
Trump is 5 years younger than Biden and sounds like he has dementia now. Just imagine what he will be like in 5 years.
Ummm...Bushman...it is 2020.
Inga, today you sound demented, which usually you don't.
If Slow Joe wins the nomination, watch for the real battle to see who gets selected as his VP pick. No selection has been more important since 1944 when the commie Henry Wallace was shoved aside to put in Harry Truman. Everyone knew FDR wouldn't survive a 4th term. Slow Joe has little chance of winning the election (but so did Trump in 2016) and the ticket must be one to avoid scaring away people from voting in the down-ballot elections.
We're seeing a preference cascade toward Biden among Democrat voters, probably because most of them view a full-on socialist like Sanders as unelectable in the general election, and because the Democrat establishment has closed ranks behind Biden, making him appear to be the odds-on favorite to win the nomination. Everyone likes a winner, nobody likes a loser. This also means that most of those Democrat voters have not seen the creepy groping/sniffing pictures and videos. Not to worry; they will before Election Day. That's probably the most potent oppo research out there about Biden, and while we have all seen it already, it will be appalling to the LIVs who haven't. Add in Biden's apparent cognitive decline and you have the makings for Trump-Biden debates that look like Godzilla vs. Bambi.
I wonder how many of these recent Biden wins have been in open primaries where Republicans could vote and cause mischief? Turnout in Michigan, for example, was much higher in both the Democrat and Republican primaries.
Inga
Do you know a single black person? How many blacks do you see and interact with on a daily basis? Any?
Aunty Trump writes,
"How many black people do you know personally? Do you really think that is what they want?"
You weren't talking to me, but knowing quite a few black folks who distrust politicians, recognize widespread government failure, and unaccountably keep voting to give more power and control to government, my theory is it's a high-trust / low-trust thing.
If your experience is that they're all out to rip you off and keep you down, better to keep power centralized somewhere where you can see it, and at least in theory have some control over it. A lot of hard-to-pin-down, hard-to-prove screwing-over can be hidden behind decentralized power and individual freedom. If like me you've grown up in a fairly high-trust society and largely had a fair shake, you're likelier to favor individual freedom, government at the lowest level possible, and so forth.
Let me talk about "Trump in 2016" that nobody expected him to win. Well, I did, and I based on the fact that almost all of the union workers, and blue color workers that I knew planned on voting for him. One of the factors that they seemed to all agree with, was the simple fact that Trump had their back. He never ran them down or made fun of them.
Not so with Biden, and it's pretty obvious to most Americans.
Ummm...Bushman...it is 2020.
Good catch on my typo. But you have to admit he looks terrible both physically and mentally now. Just imagine what he will be like by 2024 at this rate of decline.
gilbar said...
the democrat bench sure was deep!
...
did i miss any?
Yang. Marianne. Gillibrand. That dude from Montana. And that other boring white dude.
And Bloomberg, of course, who came up short.
I hate to break this to some folks, but wherever there's a primary the Democrats are fully capable of going right into the back rooms of election headquarters where the votes are counted and repurposing the votes the way they want them to be, and they do it regularly.
Biden 2016: They're gonna put y'all back in chains.
Did Trump put them back in chains, or get them jobs?
Don't give me this crap how blacks are going to come out in droves and vote for Biden.
Blacks are what, 14% of the population? The thought that such a small group of Americans controls the total voting is beyond me.
Joe Biden
Tulsi Gabbard
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Amy Klobuchar
Pete Buttigieg
Tom Steyer
Corey Booker
Deval Patrick
Andrew Yang
John Delaney'
Marianne Williamson
Julian Castro
Kamal Harris
Steve Bullock
Joe Sestak
Wayne Messam
Beto O'Rourke
Tim Ryan
Bill de Blasio
Kirsten Gillibrand
Seth Moulton
John Hickenlooper
Mike Gravel
Eric Swalwell
Richard Ojeda
AllenS said...
Blacks are what, 14% of the population? The thought that such a small group of Americans controls the total voting is beyond me.
Yet, they seem to.
Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania--The districts that have a large black population tend to over-ride the rest of the State and carry the day for democrats.
Frustrating as hell.
It seems pretty racist of Democrats to assume that black Americans wouldn’t notice what is being done to them by the party that takes them for granted.
Why? Blacks started voting Democrat while the Democrats were still enforcing segregation and Jim Crow in the South. They've consistently voted Democrat ever since.
After reading Annie C.'s "where are they now" list, it reminds me of someone flinging a handful of fine gravel into a lake. It doesn't take time for the small ripples to vanish and the gravel to sink to the bottom as if it had never been.
Wayne Messam
I don't think I've seen that name before today.
It bothers me — I won't say "amazes me" — that we Americans put so much time and effort into selecting major-party candidates for President and we end up with such a wearisomely inadequate, bland old politician, the very person who would have been selected if, without all this fuss, the party had just given the nod to the next person in line. It's so dispiriting that it's come to this!
Can’t disagree. This is one reason why I tend not to vote.
Regardless, we’re in for a very funny election cycle, and (depending on people’s health) another very funny four years after that.
Your candidate will be chosen for you.
Browndog the percentage of blacks in Wisconsin is 9.7%. Again, the thought that such a small group of Americans control the total voting in Wisconsin is beyond me.
Inga,
The problem is, Trump has been talking like that for years. There isn't a recent change in his speech patterns and word choices. Trump is playing a con-man's game of throwing out words and phrases to see what gets a reaction and then expounding on what hits with the audience.
Biden has had lots of gaffes before, but now he's forgetting what he is saying mid-sentence, forgetting who is his wife and forgetting that he's running for President. There is a difference between gaffes and confusion.
Voting patterns of Wisconsin 2016 --
LINK TEXT
Milwaukee in Milwaukee County is an island in a sea of red.
Does anyone think that Slow Joe Biden will do better in Wisconsin than Crooked Hillary did in 2016?
Also, chalk up a win in Minnesota for Trump in 2020.
That's because, with the "establishment" of both parties, it's primarily about political power, not performance/service to the country. That's obvious in the way both parties have reacted to Pres Trump's election.
Bingo !
(and I think Biden will lose to Trump)
I wish I was as certain of that as a lot of people seem to be. I'm worried most are underestimating the effect the Obamas will have, bolstered by a full Media push the likes of which we've never seen, once they jump in and back Biden.
Think about all the nice centrist people who'll once again be touched, see the promise of Hope, blah blah blah...now add in Biden giving Michelle some prominent position (possibly a Cabinet post). That's not gonna be easy to counter!
Biden himself isn't looking good on the trail but Trump won't be running against just Biden. The Media (all, including deep pocketed Hollywood types), most of the old Obama pablum coalition, weak/NeverTrump "Republicans," the appearance or actual existence of an economic slowdown...it's at best a close thing and more likely Trump's going in as an underdog.
The only Biden commercial that ran the last week in Michigan was Obama talking about Biden. All you heard was that damned preacher voice until the end when Sleepy Joe approved this message.
HoodlumDoodlum said...
(and I think Biden will lose to Trump)
I wish I was as certain of that as a lot of people seem to be. I'm worried most are underestimating the effect the Obamas will have, bolstered by a full Media push the likes of which we've never seen, once they jump in and back Biden."
I agree that we should not ever be complacent - but Obama has not had impressive coattails in the past.
This is post one in the sequence “How Biden Won My Vote”
The weakness of the Dem bench is due in large part to the favoritism of the media. Dems coming up don't have to be as strong in their game or as squeaky clean as their Republican opponents. When they get to the Presidential level, that changes somewhat.
Media preferences have also tended to eliminate more moderate, centrist candidates in the last 15 to 20 years. Candidates who might have had broader appeal and a better game were displaced by candidates who fit the identity politics template or were more fashionable ideologically.
This is not about beating Trump, it’s about trying to hold the House. They’ve given up on beating Trump.
Not so mysterious. The DNC enforced discipline. They short circuited the primaries to stop Sanders. They goofed by not banning Sanders up front, and it was too embarrassing to ban him now, but they were never going to let him win. So it seems like a next in line choice by the powers that be because *that is exactly what it was.* The DNC picked the winner.
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...I agree that we should not ever be complacent - but Obama has not had impressive coattails in the past.
Down-ballot that's true--he's remarkably (and probably historically) weak in that regard. But think of it this way: if Obama was running for a 2nd term in 2020, against Trump, who would you bet on?
My guess is that's more or less how the national election will be framed. The country as a whole LOVES the Obamas and the Dem machine will cast the race as a return to Obama-era harmony. There's no way you won't see Michelle O everywhere, and nice centrist people absolutely love her. They don't really love Mike Pence, certainly not in the same way. It's going to be a problem for Trump!
Trump won't face such a huge money disadvantage this time but there's some reason to think the Media will be smarter about their hugely negative coverage--if they realize the smart way to attack Trump is to promote an Obama ideal (and let Biden pick up some associated shine from that) the kind of direct Media counter attack Trump is good at will be less effective.
Inga wrote: Trump is 5 years younger than Biden and sounds like he has dementia now. Just imagine what he will be like in 5 years.
Inga's training as a nurse was overly focused on the proper handling of enemas and bedpans. She missed neurology courses and obviously learned nothing from experience with older patients.
Her patients, at least those that survived, must be thrilled that she retired.
Inga,
"Trump is 5 years younger than Biden and sounds like he has dementia now"
Either you are lying, or you have no experience with someone close to you having dementia. Trump absolutely does NOT sound like he has dementia.
Or maybe Joe Biden sold his soul to the devil.
I don't doubt that he has, like Mrs Pelosi and many other ostensibly Catholic Democrats: 'let the infants be killed if that means I can win an election'. Happily, the Faustian bargain can always be unmade, unlike in fiction.
Joe is a modest man, from a working background, and he is down for the struggle. He’ll let a sjw talk for a few seconds, then give ‘em some applesauce, and say’No malarkey’ and ‘lets get back to work.’
Working blacks who want someone in their corner or that their aunty can support, some working people, greens, reds, pinks, professors, globalists and many middle and upper middle brows will hold their nose and go for Biden. Trump negatives are high and the hysterical modern cult groups will be....how motivated?
Corona, the economy, and who knows what else might come up. Could be closer than one thinks with all the deeper change going on. These guys are almost like avatars riding deeper currents.
Inga said... [hush][hide comment]
“Just imagine what he will be like by 2020.”
Trump is 5 years younger than Biden and sounds like he has dementia now. Just imagine what he will be like in 5 years.
3/11/20, 8:00 AM
Keep telling yourself that!
You hear Trump but you don't listen. Same with Biden. If you did, you would understand Trump more and pity Biden more.
Black voters keep the Democrat party alive. Until about 85 years ago, they were monolithically Republican voters, a vestige of the Civil War, the Reconstruction, and segregation. But back then, they didn't get to vote in the South because of Jim Crow. That changed with FDR, the New Deal and WWII. Truman desegregated the armed forces. The passage the Civil Rights Act by the LBJ administration, over southern Democrat opposition and with the votes of a higher percentage of Republican senators than Democrat senators, ironically solidified black Americans' votes for the Democratic Party.
Because their voting pattern is so monolithic, black Americans have significant electoral impact in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina. Again ironically, the Dems feel free to ignore black voters because their votes are locked in, and the GOP, until Trump, has never really felt they had much chance to get their votes since mid-1960s.
Even Ronald Reagan was not able to get the votes of black Americans, receiving about 10% in each of his landslide victories. Will this year be different? Probably not, but if Trump gets a significant portion of black votes nationally--say 13 to 15%--it will be real trouble for the Demmies and the GOP will start to get some ideas, for a change.
Black voters have isolated themselves in the Democrat Party. To get real political power and influence as an ethnic group with distinctive interests, about 20% of black voters need to be in play to vote for either party. Right now it appears to be about 2%. Maybe this election will change that, but I am not expecting it.
It bothers me — I won't say "amazes me" — that we Americans put so much time and effort into selecting major-party candidates for President and we end up with such a wearisomely inadequate, bland old politician, the very person who would have been selected if, without all this fuss, the party had just given the nod to the next person in line. It's so dispiriting that it's come to this!
Blame Obama, and, to a lesser extent, Bill Clinton.
Their Presidencies both led to major wipeouts of Democrat politicians from "purple" States. You know, people who had to appeal to the middle in order to get elected.
So pretty much every "nationally known Democrat politician" breaks down to "Obama's VP, and a bunch of Democrats who've never had to compete, outside of a primary under a far left electorate"
The "Twitter Primary" was "a primary under a far left electorate", so the few "moderates" who tried to get in were toast, Biden was down, but still running on name recognition, and everyone else was pushing nuts policies.
Then we hit the SC Primary, and "Super Tuesday", where voters who are "Democrats, but not utterly insane" got to have a say. And by that point their only option left was "Obama's VP."
So they voted for the dementia patient, because even that's better than a socialist.
Don't bet they're going to vote for him in the general election
Blogger Ryan said...
Maybe it's a lot harder to run for president than any of us can appreciate. Half the job is trying to make yourself adequately known to the public so they feel comfortable with you.
I confess, I don't understand how calling someone a "lying dog faced pony soldier" makes voters "more comfortable" with you.
Or not being able to remember the first two sentences of the preamble to the Declaration of Independence, after you independently brought it up.
Or insulting voters and challenging them to an IQ test, or a pushup contest.
But, I guess that's just me.
I do have one crazy hypothesis:
Perhaps the voters realize that Biden is in mental decline. And what they're voting for, by voting for Biden, is "none of the above"
They expect him to be replaced before or at the Convention. And think that whoever replaces him will be better than the socialist Bernie, or any of the other losers who are currently running.
So, right now Biden's vote pool is made up of
1: People who want Biden to be the nominee (a small group, given how he was doing in the polls before SC)
2: People who just don't want Bernie
3: People who imagine that someone they like will replace Biden on the ballot. I'm sure this group has a lot of different "candidates I like". but that's the advantage of "generic candidate"
If this hypothesis is true, then if Biden does make it though the DNCm and becomes the official nominee, THEN his support will start cratering, as people come to grips with the fact that the Democrat Candidate has dementia
HoodlumDoodlum said...
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...I agree that we should not ever be complacent - but Obama has not had impressive coattails in the past.
Down-ballot that's true--he's remarkably (and probably historically) weak in that regard. But think of it this way: if Obama was running for a 2nd term in 2020, against Trump, who would you bet on?
If Obama was able to come back and try to run against Trump, I'd bet on Trump.
Because 4 years of Trump's economy has been far better than the 8 years of Obama's economy. Trump would be able to play Obama deriding the "magic wand" Trump would need to better Obama's numbers, then show all the ways Trump's bettered Obama's numbers.
It would be glorious fun
Here is the comment I wrote on that same thread:
Strategically, I would guess Biden would probably do the party a favor to withdraw and throw his support to Klobuchar, but here is the thing- I am not convinced the endorsement would really help Klobuchar, and might actually backfire. In short, I think we may all overthinking this, and the best thing Biden could do is to stay in the race until South Carolina either rescues his campaign, or drives the stake through its heart. It would provide clarity that way.
Rod Blagojevich is available. Talk about a fresh face! And he did nothing wrong. I heard him say so.
Or what about Russ Feingold? He’s available and would be honored to be asked. Then there is Sen Dick Durbin. He hatesTrump. He will say anything to o smear an opponent. He wouldn’t be missed in the Senate. He knows Obama!
That’s it! Durbin! He’s suitably reptilian and no one knows him. We are ready for the roll out!
If the current stock market fall reflects the bursting of a stock bubble then Trump is probably the underdog at this point. If the virus keeps going in other western countries the way it it is going in Italy he is also likely to be in trouble.
Keep hope alive, ARM. A nuclear bomb going off in a major US city would cinch it for Biden, right?
Trump is 5 years younger than Biden and sounds like he has dementia now. Just imagine what he will be like in 5 years.
How much longer are you going to waddle around and crap this turd on every thread?
Get some new material.
I agree with some that Biden drops out of the race before the convention, after he has enough votes to deny the nomination to Sanders.
At the convention, there will be a Wellstone-like funeral for Joe's mind. Major Democrats will eulogize him, highlighted by Obama praising him for doing it for the sake of the Party. There will be cheers and tears. Biden will have a short ten-minutes to speak, the waves of appreciation and love will flow forth.
He will release his delegates to maybe no one and then exits stage left, or right, or off the front stage of history.
Cut. Print it.
“Keep hope alive, ARM. A nuclear bomb going off in a major US city would cinch it for Biden, right?”
What a stupid comment.
What a stupid comment.
Me pointing out ghouls like you and ARM are hoping and praying for the worst-case scenario in order to inflict political damage on Trump isn't stupid.
It's stating the obvious.
You simply don't like it. Tough.
I can understand not being thrilled with Biden. Most Democrats who support him feel the same way.
But to say that he doesn't deserve to win in a head to head against Trump, that requires more thinking and justification than you have offered. I'd like to see you make that case--it would be instructive.
Lawrence Person said, "The tiny problem is Biden's obvious cognitive decline."
The not-so-tiny problem is the absurd willingness of the Democratic rank-and-file to vote for him.
What do "Democrat" and "Dementia" have in common in addition to the first three letters of each word?
im at said...
Me pointing out ghouls like you and ARM are hoping and praying for the worst-case scenario in order to inflict political damage on Trump isn't stupid.
It kind of is, since no where do I say this.
However, if you believe I am in error on this issue, Drago has established a new standard for this blog. If you attribute a belief or statement to someone you must provide a link.
Link, please.
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