The results are about to come in, so let’s talk about it.
ADDED: "Super Tuesday Live Coverage: Biden Wins North Carolina and Virginia, and Sanders Wins Vermont" (NYT).
Here are the live updates at FiveThirtyEight.
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«সবচেয়ে পুরাতন ‹পুরাতন 450 এর 401 – থেকে 450BTW, did anyone else catch Creepy Sleepy Joe Biden, The Guy Who Bravely Obtained 5 Deferments, smelling the hair of the little kid earlier today?
What is it with Slow Joe and little kids hair?
Anybody else catch Trump vote totals in NC and Texas in uncontested primaries?
Nice.
Inga: "Huh? Ohhhh, yes is see. So because I didn't mention Kamala Harris that makes you think I included her in my “good black candidates”?"
LOL
Venn diagrams.
They are a real thing.
Look it up! (if you can)
Texas 2020
Democrats = 1,345,560
Trump = 1,584,661
“You mentioned no names.
Obviously.
Which means you excluded no one.”
Huh? Ohhhh, yes I see. So because I didn't mention Kamala Harris that makes you think I included her in my “good black candidates”? Oh are you being funny? Maybe I’m not getting your humor? Yes, that must be it. No OCDrago, you are being an idiot and trying to put words in my mouth. Sorry but that makes you look a bit out of control of yourself, calm down.
Drago said...Anybody else catch Trump vote totals in NC and Texas in uncontested primaries?
Nice.
I've been watching CA numbers as I alluded to above. Trump is "losing" by a much smaller margin to all Dems than he lost to Hillary in 2016. Strong turnout by Trump voters in CA so far!
The "blue wave" is a wave goodbye.
Texas' final delegate counts are up in the air, still, as are California's, but I did a quick back of the envelope calculation, and Sanders could wind up with the most delegates in todays' vote totals. It really all depends on how large his margin in California is- right now he could possibly end up with at least 220 of the 415 total, with Biden and Bloomberg splitting the rest fairly evenly, but this is with only 15% of the count. I expect Biden's 18.7% to rise to the 24% area, Bloomberg's to drop down closer to 15%, and Sanders to stay about where it is at 29%. They have already declared Sanders the winner in CA, but I haven't seen the exit poll data, so it is possible that Sanders wins CA by 10+%, which will give him in the area of 220 delegates of the 415 allotted to CA as of tonight (bonus delegates will/might be added later in proportional amounts).
Sanders could be able to declare a victory afterall, if you go by delegate counts. Biden will win the most votes by a fair margin, though.
“Sanders could wind up with the most delegates in todays' vote totals”
Well! That’s interesting.
Inga said...Well! That’s interesting.
Intersting in the same way that Trump won more electoral vote despite losing the popular votes in 2016. Those populists sure know how to play representative democracy politics!
Biden is running up his votes in Republican states and Republican districts- Sanders is getting more votes in the Democratic states and Democratic districts that aren't majority minority. This gives Sanders more delegates/vote than Biden gets- the more Democrats a state and district actually have gives them more delegates.
Biden is running up his votes in Republican states and Republican districts
Could be Republican's hedging their bets. I mean, put a gun to my head and say I HAD to pick one should Trump lose, I'd go Biden.
Though there is nothing that can beat Trump, I do not think.
I was reading Nate Silver's scenarios for this evenings possible outcomes. It is the scenario where the voters decide it is Biden vs Sanders that is the closest to reality this evening.
The big miss in that scenario might be California where Bloomberg seems to be doing better than Silver predicted in that scenario, and Biden a bit worse. But the count is still at 35% right now in California.
Inga: "Huh? Ohhhh, yes I see. So because I didn't mention Kamala Harris that makes you think I included her in my “good black candidates”?"
I get it. You failed basic logic.
No surprise. The guy you thought was a dementia-addled idiot who ought to be pulled from the stage a week ago is now your guy and you are having some issues.
Good luck with your cognitive dissonance.
I don't remember exactly where and when I wrote it, but I pointed out at least a month or more ago that the other candidates were making a mistake not putting the stake through Biden's heart when they had the opportunity with Biden right there on the debate stage. Now it might be too late.
Wow I was wrong.
I thought Sanders would clean up tonight. I thought democrat voters had had enough of the obvious corruption. But no.
They voted for a dementia patient instead because their Masters told all the candidates except Warren to drop out and endorse Biden.
It is amazing Warren is still in the race. She would have dropped out and knew she was going to be embarrassed. But she was told to stay in. And she did and she cost Sanders in several states.
Everyone did exactly what the Masters told them to do.
Democrat voters are just dumb fucking sheep.
If Trump can be President, so can Biden. And with a sharp, intelligent, popular, black running mate Biden will have that up on Trump. Also I’m quite sure Democrats will put sharp people all around Biden to help him out during those confusing times. Plus even with Biden’s cognitive deficits, he probably wouldn’t pretend to conduct an orchestra during the National Anthem.
Warren is going to face a choice tomorrow- does she value the overlap between her and Sanders on desired policy, or does she bend the knee to Biden and do what the DNC requires of her?
Not sure what she will do, but if she doesn't withdraw tomorrow, she is doing the DNC's bidding.
If Republican voters were as stupid as Democrat voters we would have let Jeb or Rubio win the primary just like Democrats are letting Biden win now.
But we told our establishment to take a walk and we finally have a President that puts us first.
Democrats are voting for a senile hair sniffing pedophile.
Because they were told to by their masters.
Warren should drop out, it would help Bernie. She could end up as Bernie’s running mate, but it wouldn’t help Bernie much if at all with the black vote.
In 2016, Sanders lost these same 14 states in delegates 616 to 781- by 165 delegates. Tonight, he won't lose to Biden by more 20, and could actually win the delegate count depending on how big his victory in California is and how small the loss in Texas.
Biden, to win the delegate race tonight, needs to close that gap in California down to 5%.
Inga said...
If Trump can be President, so can Biden. And with a sharp, intelligent, popular, black running mate Biden will have that up on Trump. Also I’m quite sure Democrats will put sharp people all around Biden to help him out during those confusing times. Plus even with Biden’s cognitive deficits, he probably wouldn’t pretend to conduct an orchestra during the National Anthem.
You are just a really stupid person and a completely docile sheep.
Trump is going to have a field day with Biden. As a Trump supporter Biden is clearly the best opponent for Trump.
Nobody is going to defend supporting Biden. Anyone with a bumper sticker or anything that has the Biden campaign on it will be mocked openly because they are supporting a fucking idiot.
You just openly admitted you are voting for someone because you believe smart people will do the actual governing while the dumbshit you voted for plays with dolls.
Democrat voters are just bad.
Inga: "Plus even with Biden’s cognitive deficits, he probably wouldn’t pretend to conduct an orchestra during the National Anthem."
He'll be too busy creeping out 9 year old girls.
Inga said...Warren should drop out, it would help Bernie. She could end up as Bernie’s running mate, but it wouldn’t help Bernie much if at all with the black vote.
The black vote will go Trump because "new" blacks are orange.
Yancey Ward said...
Warren is going to face a choice tomorrow- does she value the overlap between her and Sanders on desired policy, or does she bend the knee to Biden and do what the DNC requires of her?
Not sure what she will do, but if she doesn't withdraw tomorrow, she is doing the DNC's bidding.
I think democrats all made it plain as day.
They are sheep and they will do what their masters tell them to do.
I expect Sanders to call for unity and heartily endorse the machine puppet dementia patient just like when he heartily endorsed the last corrupt decrepit machine puppet in 2016.
Because nothing says Progressive more than doing exactly what the Oligarch Billionaire Masters want you to do and making stupid sheep noises.
Suppose that the whole betting-on-black-and-latino-voters-in-the-future gambit backfires for Dems -- who are they left with? A bunch of old white women and their cowed spouses/partners.
“You just openly admitted you are voting for someone because you believe smart people will do the actual governing while the dumbshit you voted for plays with dolls.”
I’m being honest. I sure hope Trump has people around him that he hasn’t fired yet who are trying their best to keep a Trump from doing any more damage to America than he already has.
As I said. If Trump can be President so can Biden. Both have cognitive deficits. I recognize Biden’s, but you folks are too deluded to recognize Trump’s.
I am not as cynical about Sanders as you, Achilles- I think he really does want the nomination- it isn't any kind of scam to get himself bought off- the others, Klobber, Buttuvwxyz, etal. are buyable on a political future level.
The questions that need answers right tomorrow are, does Bloomberg drop out, and does Warren drop out. If Warren drops out and endorses Biden, then it is over, but I don't think she would do that- what she might do, to placate the DNC, is to just stay in the race taking away support Sanders needs in the following weeks- she would kill any chances he has in Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Now, Sanders might possibly survive Warren staying in the race if Bloomberg also stays in taking votes and delegates away from Biden.
Money is an issue for Warren- you can't run a campaign without money, and I don't think anyone is going to be donating to her going forward, even if the DNC wanted her in the race. Bloomberg, on the other hand, can spend as much as he wants, and if he really wants the nomination, then the only path forward is to stay in the race, because, otherwise, Biden is going to win a majority of the delegates. Bloomberg needs a brokered convention at this point.
Trying to connect dots.
DNC chairs, are superdelegates for life.
·
Donna Brazile is the former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee
If Warren is doing the DNC's bidding how is the message sent and received?
I'm novice political.
Is there way to miscommunication?
This is actually the best thing that could have happened for Trump. It looks like Biden will go through completely unchallenged. Bernie is going to studiously avoid attacking Biden's obvious corruption or any of his actual weak points and like a good little boy endorse the obviously corrupt child molester.
And then the untested Biden is going to run into a buzz saw shaped like an overweight orange mop.
Hillary at least had all her faculties about her and kind of fought back against Trump and still got wrecked.
Trump is going to abuse Biden. It is going to be embarrassing to be associated with Biden. House and Senate candidates appearing with Biden are going to be mercilessly mocked.
And the Bernie Bro's are going to start burning shit down soon.
There will enormous pressure put on Bloomberg by the Democrats to drop out after tonight- he hurt Biden badly in Texas and California, and will likely continue to hurt Biden in the big midwestern states, plus Pennsylvania and New York. He will also hurt Biden in the central plains states and mountain west, plus Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. This is the only hope, I think, Sanders actually has- Warren dropping out, Bloomberg staying in.
Parallel Universe Inga: "I’m being honest. I sure hope Trump has people around him that he hasn’t fired yet who are trying their best to keep a Trump from doing any more damage to America than he already has."
LOL
"WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Nine in 10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88% recorded in 2003."
"damage to America"
Gee, after Trump found the Magic Wand that eluded obambi, if Trump "damaged" America even more we might be at 95% of Americans satisfied with their lives!
It is unlikely to ever be more than that since there are a few Inga's mucking about who want to hand our economy back over to China and the EU....plus sell more baby parts.
Inga said...
“You just openly admitted you are voting for someone because you believe smart people will do the actual governing while the dumbshit you voted for plays with dolls.”
I’m being honest. I sure hope Trump has people around him that he hasn’t fired yet who are trying their best to keep a Trump from doing any more damage to America than he already has.
What damage?
Wage growth for the working class?
Border Security?
Manufacturing jobs returning?
Ending stupid ClintonObamaBush wars?
This 3 year old girl was raped because of people like you.
Democrats voted for the people that made this happen. You are a terrible person and are just making sheep noises right now.
Narayanan,
I will give Warren the benefit of the doubt, and grant that she stayed in until tonight because the polling showed her possibly finishing third in California, winning in Massachusetts, along with picking up delegates in Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, etc. In other words, she might do well enough, and Sanders worse enough, that she becomes the progressive counter to Biden and Sanders endorses her. Tonights results show that won't happen- Warren will do even worse next week than she did tonight- she underperformed the polls everywhere tonight.
She might still think, though, that her staying in the race raises the likelihood of a brokered convention where she is the chosen nominee, but that is a fool's thought- her staying in makes it far more likely Biden wins a majority of the pledged delegates before the election.
So, what could keep her in the race when she has no chance at the nomination. In my opinion, only the offer of being the VP on a Biden ticket. Without that, I suspect she withdraws tomorrow, and if she has any integrity, she will endorse the remaining candidate closest to her own political preferences- Sanders, I am sorry to say. Sanders needs this to happen before next Tuesday.
Goodnight, all.
Yancey Ward said...
So, what could keep her in the race when she has no chance at the nomination. In my opinion, only the offer of being the VP on a Biden ticket. Without that, I suspect she withdraws tomorrow, and if she has any integrity, she will endorse the remaining candidate closest to her own political preferences- Sanders, I am sorry to say. Sanders needs this to happen before next Tuesday.
Biden-Warren...
As an affirmative action thief Warren leaves an opening for Trump to split the democrat coalition even more than he has already.
At this point if they go with Biden they are conceding the executive. They have to find someone who can stop the bleeding down ballot.
And the Bernie Bros are going to start burning shit.
The Bernie Bros remember Warren attacking Bernie and calling him sexist. I am pretty sure she makes that schism worse.
Inga Chucka
Inga Inga Inga Chucka*
*Not to scale
Yancey Ward said...
There will enormous pressure put on Bloomberg by the Democrats to drop out after tonight
Hell with that
Tonight Mike's in bed, thinking of ways to torture to death the sleaze-bag "consultants" who sold him on spending half a billion of his own money to get utterly embarrassed and trashed on the national stage
He's out.
His only path forward was to wait until next week to join the Dem debates. he failed that, and thus he lost
Blogger Yancey Ward said...
Goodnight, all.
Thanks for your analysis.
Super Tuesday settled nothing except that Biden stayed alive due to black support so his vp won't be Warren. (Unless survival is due to Operation Chaos in which case Mitt would be fair, ha, ha). Sanders won California and split Texas. If you give Warren's votes to Sanders and Buttfdxz and Klubbie to Biden then those two each have about half the delegates. But it isn't certain how Warren voters will split. So it could be close first vote victory at the convention for either one or a second ballot followed by super delegate control followed by a Dem party split. The worst possible outcome for the Dems. Those two will fight for months on socialism v. dementia (if there's a difference). Causing a silent drift to Trump.
My headline for this morning: The Mensheviks Strike Back
Achilles said... (re: Inga)
You just openly admitted you are voting for someone because you believe smart people will do the actual governing while the dumbshit you voted for plays with dolls.
It worked with Obama.
I used the address from that piece to find it LB.
Blogger BleachBit-and-Hammers said...
Biden, with that sharp brain and crooked mean spirit will certainly save us from any virus.
It took Obama 1000 American deaths to call H1N1 an emergency. oh well.
I heard Rush Limbaugh pontificating about that on Monday. He was all serious; doing that thing of his where he isn’t the least bit curious about the world, and is instead telling everyone what he thinks they should hear, as if he were the smartest man whose voice ever appeared on the radio. And of course needing to explain little details to his audience, which were intended to make him seem even smarter.
And then Rush pronounced name of the old virus, as if the 1’s were capital I’s. “The virus was the H-Eye, N-Eye virus.” It took me just a moment to figure out what he was trying to say before I burst out laughing at him.
"It took me just a moment to figure out what he was trying to say before I burst out laughing at him."
As if you were the smartest man whose comments ever appeared on the internet?
chickie
"there was nothing stopping a corrupt official from voiding vote by incorrectly registering someone's vote."
Yeah - we all know democrats would never be corrupt. or do corrupt things.
Rush isn't my style. I applaud him, but his best days are behind him. I think he should retire and let his various guest hosts take over. *bin saying so for years* Many of them do a better job. I prefer someone like Buck Sexton. I adore local Mandy Connell. she's really smart.
Wow, your theory Trump was in the 2016 election to throw it to Hillary is smarter than the 8:17.
Blogger Inga said...
As I said. If Trump can be President so can Biden. Both have cognitive deficits. I recognize Biden’s, but you folks are too deluded to recognize Trump’s.
No, Inga, being an egotistical asshole is a requirement for being a politician, not a "cognitive defect".
Joe Biden is currently qualified to be disqualified under the 25th Amendment. If you vote for him, or otherwise support him, dont' expect anyone to take yo seriously ever again.
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