Actual sunrise time: 6:59. That's back before 7 again. The daylight today goes for 12 hours and 12 minutes. Nicely balanced between light and dark, with a slight tip toward light, those extra 12 minutes. Possibly of use as a metaphor.
March 21, 2020
Sunrise, 6:53.
Actual sunrise time: 6:59. That's back before 7 again. The daylight today goes for 12 hours and 12 minutes. Nicely balanced between light and dark, with a slight tip toward light, those extra 12 minutes. Possibly of use as a metaphor.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
371 comments:
1 – 200 of 371 Newer› Newest»It takes balls to hide that sun and part of the reflection behind that tree but it actually makes the whole thing so much more powerful.
I want to comment about your sunrises and sunsets... Although I've never seen a discussion about the process of reading Althouse blog, I decided years ago that it was best not to start at the top but to scroll down to the oldest post I have not read. The sunrises clearly delineate the day's starting point, therefore improving the usability of your site. And, of course, they are beautiful. Thank you.
I got kicked out of The Bluejay Underground today. Earlier in the week I was kicked out of investorvillage because I challenged the owner’s prediction that financial markets were going to close.
My last thread and post were about Free Speech. I used the name Steve Jansa fan.
“And, Bennie boy, you consider me to be an idiot because I'm a conservative and you don't agree with my politics. A sort of heckler's veto. Just shout me down and call me stupid and an idiot.
Be honest now.
You liberals hate conservatives and want us to stop talking. You despise Rush Limbaugh and Fox News. You hated Charles Krauthammer and Bill Buckley. You liberals want total and complete power. CNN is the most trusted name in news. All the "smart" people are on MSNBC. Sean Hannity is a complete moron.
And, of course, you really hate Trump. It is just "Orange Man, Bad." You're like Ben Rhodes on the night Hillary lost. "I... I... can't process this... Confused... Not going to be Secretary of State....."
And after Trump won fair and square, your crew ran a three year campaign to undermine and then impeach him. The Russia hoax was the biggest scandal in American political history. Thank goodness Trump did his job during the impeachment trial and stopped flights from China.
You libs also want to get rid of the Electoral College. To hell with small states like Nebraska and Iowa. To hell with flyover country.
Yes, anyone who disagrees with you is just plain stupid. Their Creighton degrees should be revoked. You, on the other hand, are the elite. The best and the brightest. No dissenting views or deviations from the liberal point-of-view is allowed. Dissenters must be punished. Books must be burned. Twitter privileges must be revoked. Amazon book reviews must be deleted.
You people will never shut me up.
The arc of history bends towards conservatism and freedom; not progressivism and oppression. Trump wins re-election in 2020 despite your efforts. I will be especially pleased to see Trump win about 65% of the Nebraska vote and all 5 EC votes. But I'm sure he'll lose in Dundee.”
Dundee is the part of Omaha where Susie and Warren Buffett live.
But they did shut me up. Banned.
Howard said...It takes balls to hide that sun and part of the reflection behind that tree but it actually makes the whole thing so much more powerful.
That reminded me of a conversation I once had with my too young children as we stared at a burning log flaring up in a campfire:
Me: Did you see that? Where does that energy come from?
Son: Hydrogen?
Me: You think there's hydrogen inside the log?
Son: No
Me: What's in the log that burns?
Son: Wood
Me: Where does the wood come from?
Son: The tree makes it
Me: Where does the tree get energy?
Daughter: From the sun!
Me: Yes!
Son: But isn't the sun hydrogen?
My kids have both grown up and moved away. I miss them this weekend. They were both going to come to us to celebrate my 60th birthday at the end of the month. But travel is locked down.
One typical response to me, “So get this through your tinfoil-covered head. It’s not hate against conservatism. It’s you. It’s Trump. REPEAT: IT IS YOU. You are both absolute laughingstocks. You profess what you want reality to be and claim it’s reality. You live in a fantasyland. You get your ass handed to you consistently whenever you debate (Creighton failed you). And I sincerely want you to get tested for senility.”
Its good to see Spring and the ice melting a bit. i used to love "Springing forward" and that extra hour of daylight after 5 PM. Now, I want sunrise to be sooner.
Even in the darkest night, the sun will rise again.
Me: Where does the wood come from?
Witches.
Reposting here --
We, as a society, don’t consider religion essential. The churches were closed before the bars and restaurants were shut down.
The churches closed voluntarily despite the great sacrifice for the good of others, to prevent the possible spread that might result from a diverse people coming into close contact with each other.
That's because the churches care. They gave up something that is more important than probably anything else, all for the good of others.
"Where does the wood come from?"
That is an excellent question, and if you try to truely answer it, you will discover all of nature, her intricacies, and her miracles. A person could spend a lifetime traveling through the answers.
Dave Begley
The media is seriously floating the idea of banning the president. Maddow and talk of not covering briefings is a feeler. The goal is to essentially cut him off entirely, in the name of fact checking. I don’t think they will succeed but I don’t dismiss the possibility either.
We played the game of who should live and who should die already. I have an idea, let’s play the game where you get a button and are told that if you push it, you get a million dollars, but somebody that you don’t know dies.
They made a movie out of this game. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Box_(2009_film)
There's a great conjunction of Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn over the next few days. Just get out a bit before sunrise and look east. It's very rare, and quite a sight!
Me: Where does the wood come from?
Of course, apart from witches, it could also come from spending time in Castle Anthrax.
If anyone has an in with the higher ups at Amazon, Samsung, Panasonic, etc (or if any of them are reading AA because why wouldn’t they) please put Skype on your platforms. Samsung and Panasonic used to have it and removed it.
My mother’s health center is setting up weekly Skype visits. It would be nice if my mother could see us together. She doesn’t have the ability to focus long enough to have the laptop passed around person to person. My mother has dementia and is in hospice and right now she still remembers who my sister and I are.
I’m sure there are better newer options but Skype is one that some elderly are already familiar with. I’m sure there are many many others who could also use Skype for this same purpose right now.
I think we are turning a corner. Despite more cases being discovered, the death curve started to flatten today nationwide. New deaths actually dropped today for the first time since Mar 12th. And the sun is shining warm and bright here in Nevada.
Aunty Trump: "They made a movie out of this game."
Its an old Twilight Zone episode.
Church Militant is very unhappy about bishops shutting down masses. Raising hell on Facebook. Not sure they're getting much traction though.
Sadly, the days of seeing the Eucharist as an essential "meal" are past..but what do I know, I'm not a cradle Catholic.
And the handshaking was icky IMO. Family behind us always has sweaty palms.
Church Militant is filled with a bunch of RadTrads. That should explain a lot.
Maddow wanting to ban someone on TV for not being factual, is the height of irony after spending endless hours in front of millions of believing fools spewing lies and unproven accusations. Remember: Trump's tax forms, Hillary's inevitable Presidency, creepy porn lawyer, Russia, Russia, Russia, plus a daily flow of guests later discredited, Trump impeachment, and Russia, for three freaking years nonstop daily bullshit.
I think we are turning a corner. Despite more cases being discovered, the death curve started to flatten today nationwide.
The economy needs to start up again in no more than a week. Those of us at risk can self isolate as we are doing. The death rate for those under 50 will be equal to the flu. Certain Democrat governors are having too much fun.
Listen to your boy, Wood is full of hydrogen in the hydrocarbon molecules of oils and spirits contained therein.
A response to such arguments posted at Parishable Items:
From Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger --
"It seems to me more profound and fitting, the more often I ponder it. Do we not often take things too lightly today when we receive the most Holy Sacrament? Could such a spiritual fasting not sometimes be useful, or even necessary, to renew and establish more deeply our relation to the Body of Christ?
"In the early Church there was a most expressive exercise of this kind: probably since the time of the apostles, Eucharistic fasting on Good Friday was part of the Church’s spirituality of Communion. Not receiving Communion on one of the most holy days of the Church’s year, which was celebrated with no Mass and without any Communion of the faithful, was a particularly profound way of sharing in the Passion of the Lord: the sorrowing of the bride from whom the bridegroom has been taken away (see Mark 2:20). I think that a Eucharistic fast of this kind, if it were deliberate and experienced as a deprivation, could even today be properly significant, on certain occasions that would have to be carefully considered — such as days of penitence (and why not, for instance, on Good Friday once more?), or also perhaps especially at great public Masses when there are so many people that a dignified distribution of the Sacrament is often not possible, so that by not receiving the Sacrament people could truly show more reverence and love than by doing so in a way that contradicts the sublime nature of this event. . . .
"Such fasting — which could not be allowed to become arbitrary, of course, but would have to be consonant with the spiritual guidance of the Church — could help people toward a deepening of their personal relation to the Lord in the Sacrament; it could be an act of solidarity with all those who have a yearning for the Sacrament but cannot receive it. . . . Yet from time to time we need a cure for falling into mere habit and its dullness. Sometimes we need to be hungry — need bodily and spiritual hunger — so as once more to comprehend the Lord’s gifts and to understand the suffering of our brethren who are hungry. Spiritual hunger, like bodily hunger, can be a vehicle of love.”
--Pilgrim Fellowship of Faith
We could say the same thing about society generally, that is, a greater appreciation for the fact that we are social beings who need others.
Where's narcisco when you need him (her?)?
Narcisco would have gotten my references.
75 and sunny = golf.
" think we are turning a corner. Despite more cases being discovered, the death curve started to flatten today nationwide.”
Where are you seeing that?
Splendid Isolation.
Well, I got them, Mark, if that makes you feel better. I would live at Castle Anthrax if they let me.
Yeah, I figured you too.
The cool kids.
Aunty Trump
Bagoh saw the corner before he got on the road. He has been saying the same thing daily. I want to see a link to a virologist or epidemiologist saying it’s leveling off. Otherwise it’s wishful thinking from the uninformed.
Rachel Maddow: Would it help to confuse it if we run away more?
President Trump: Oh, shut up and go and change your armor.
Wow! The (far Left) New York Daily News editorial: [N]o one should be too shy to say: The Chinese Communist Party dictatorship disastrously botched in its handling of the initial Wuhan outbreak. A coverup cost precious time and countless lives. (The world may also have much to learn from China’s subsequent efforts to contain the outbreak.)
The first person in Wuhan became ill on Dec. 10. By month’s end, health officials tracked a new coronavirus strain to an open-air meat market.
On Dec. 30, the government began shutting down social media discussions on the new virus, detaining Dr. Li Wenliang, a whistleblower for posting concerns over a SARS-like virus.
By Jan. 1, labs analyzing the virus were ordered to destroy samples. The following day, though researchers successfully mapped the COVID-19 genome, the information was kept under wraps over a week as party officials claimed there were no new cases.
That allowed Wuhan visitors to return to homes in Thailand, the U.S. and other places carrying the disease.
The coverup continues, with last week’s expulsion of the New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal. Separately, China’s propaganda arm spreads the lie that the coronavirus was developed in a U.S. Army lab.
Those are facts.
From at least one source on the Left" Those are facts.
More fun with fake news:
"Idle teenagers are participating in a “disturbing trend” of coughing on grocery store produce and posting their pranks ...
The latest incident occurred in the Washington exurb of Purcellville, Virginia, some 55 miles from the White House."
The "latest incident" is the only incident.
A 30 second video on the importance of good technique washing hands
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1241177007305744384
Inga and Michael K know this, but I expect scoffers here.
"The cool kids."
I don't think I ever got into a girl's pants by being a Monty Python fan.
But then the (far Left) New York Daily News can't help but take a shot at President Trump with false arguments of their own, while ignoring things the President did to slow the progress of the coronavirus in the US (like banning flights from China, etc.).
In the best of times, President Trump’s mendacity, salesman braggadocio and nasty rhetoric is a danger to the body politic. In a global pandemic, it has proven downright lethal.
What evidence do they present for "lethality:":
His optimistic statement on Feb. 26 that “the 15 [cases] within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero" as if promoting optimism is fatal.
What else?
"His March 11 prime time address gave false information on travel from Europe, panicking visiting Americans and forcing them to wait hours packed into customs — possibly exposing them in the process."
I guess they mean that shutting off Europe and giving Americans a chance to come back is "fatal." I wonder what these editors would have said if the President just shut the European borders with no escape for Americans?
These folks are really sick, in my opinion.
Also, no criticism whatsoever of de Blasio's inaction in ordering medical supplies for the City of New York. I guess the overwhelming craving for political power totally overrides reality for these folks.
"The first person in Wuhan became ill on Dec. 10"
No such thing is actually a fact as written in the article. While we always look for "Patient Zero" early on, it is an utter fucking fantasy that such a victim would actually be found so quickly. It will be at least a couple of years before the science settles on who the first true victim was. The December 10th date is just the furthest date back anyone has looked so far. It is far more likely that on December 10th, when that patient became ill, he was just one of several thousand or more. While I think they did trace that infection back to the meat market, it is just a complete guess that the market itself was the true origin- it could have just easily been where some other unidentified person came in and infected Patient Zero, 1, 2, and 3.
While I really, really liked the movie "Contagion", that movie has induced us to blindly accept convenient narratives about accuracy and certainty of scientific analysis.
Rossini's La Cenerentola from 2014 (Joyce DiDonato, Juan Diege Florez et al) is streaming from the Metropolitan Opera now. I miscalculated and arrived late-- had on the Berlin Philharmonic's Mahler's Third Symphony, from the end of February. (Their 'DigitalConcertHall.com' is free for the month, in case anyone is interested.)
"While I really, really liked the movie "Contagion"..."
I like that movie because Gwyneth Paltrow dies.
I REALLY like the movie "Seven".
I am Laslo.
You should have liked "Contagion" more since she died at the beginning rather than the end.
And again, consider giving your $1200 government handout to someone who might really need it. Maybe your church or synagogue or some charity that has seen a drop off in contributions.
My niece is a nurse at Mass General and they have someone on staff who tested positive. She's staying on the job.
Another stupid reporter at the press conference right now saying, we're the wealthiest country on the planet, shouldn't we have done all these things months ago?
The military is expecting that they’ll be needing these types of facilities, I don’t think they are needlessly panicking.
The US military is well versed in dealing with contingencies. They are doing their jobs.
Hopefully those facilities will not be needed, but it is good that they are preparing.
That's always helpful in solving a crisis.
CAMP PENDLETON MARINES SET UP A MEDICAL ISOLATION AND OBSERVATION CENTER
This is what my daughter sent me this morning. She’s working 12 hour days helping to set up these facilities. (FYI, this is for public consumption so I’m not giving away any military secrets). The military is expecting that they’ll be needing these types of facilities, I don’t think they are needlessly panicking.
“And again, consider giving your $1200 government handout to someone who might really need it. Maybe your church or synagogue or some charity that has seen a drop off in contributions.”
Sew masks! I’ve been busy doing just that since early this AM. I’ll be spending the money for more supplies.
"Ken B said...
A 30 second video on the importance of good technique washing hands"
Uh, not good. You need to take the gloves off first.
Inga: "She’s working 12 hour days helping to set up these facilities."
12 hour days in the military is routine.
Currently in North Myrtle Beach SC. Restaurants, bars,municipal offices closed. Food and gas OK. Horry County population about 350,000. A LOT of 70+.
Home in two weeks to Upstate NY. Same size county, 28,000 population. Go or stay?
cruel, lazlo, jude law was a very sleazy character in that previous film,
Italy has lost 700+ today. And the days not done. Every day it increases. I pray we are not Italy.
Oregon governor announced last evening that the state is to be on a pretty much stay-at-home status. She was joined by the mayor of Portland and a county commissioner. It seems that this was to start immediately but her comments were a little ambiguous, with another announcement scheduled for Monday. The Mayor was not so ambiguous.
Next week is Wagner Week at MetOpera streaming.
https://www.metopera.org/user-information/nightly-met-opera-streams/
Ring Cycle ++
Attn: Our Hostess
Reporters blaming Trump for being "racist" about China.
Reporter just now blasted Trump for saying nice things about China.
I've been in San Fran, LA, Seattle, Portland, and Vegas this week. Pretty surreal. Vegas control tower is out of service due to controller testing positive so LAS is now an uncontrolled airport. Approach control clears you for the approach and you announce your intentions on the common traffic advisory frequency. Surface ops are the same. Barely any aircraft on the ground. Vegas, the strip etc..all a ghost town. Homeless and tweekers rule the streets. Airports empty, except for the masked and occasional person with hazmat suit and respirator. My employer seems to relish that we are "essential" at least for now, so please don't call out sick. Flying airlpanes with less than 25% load factors and bleeding cash on every leg. I'm finally heading back home to tend to the family. Maybe won't have to work next week. Hopefully not because I am fighting an infection.
Be safe everyone!
Another asshole reporter just asked a bad faith question about whether the American people should be taking medical advice from the president, while also asking what Trump meant when he said that we should give those two drugs a try because maybe they will work, maybe they won't.
320Busdriver: Can't even imagine no air traffic control in a major airport! Stay safe and get well! God bless you for your efforts.
I'm guessing he meant that we should give the drugs a try because maybe they will work.
Fauci says it's not a bad thing for Trump to give people hope that something might work now, while also going through the usual trial testing of drugs.
COVID-19 was engineered into existence in a P4 level bio-research facility located in Wuhan near the wetmarket. It was developed as a bioweapon. It escaped the P4 facility due to poor containment protocols.
You can take that to the bank.
BTW...saw Nancy Pelosi in SFO this AM in SFO....shes on her way to DC. If I would have seen Feinstein I would not be able to contain my disdain for what she(husband) did and would have lost my shit. And I don't rattle easily.
BagO:" think we are turning a corner. Despite more cases being discovered, the death curve started to flatten today nationwide.”
Aunty: "Where are you seeing that?"
I've been logging daily deaths from the CDC:
3/18/20 = 53
3/19/20 = 51
Now, as I complained about here last week, the CDC won't post again until Monday, which creates a blurry 3/20-3/22 count, but the unofficial site I like said Friday's daily total jumped back up to 55. Still, that's a pretty good slow down, and I hope Bag's right about the corner but I wouldn't count on it yet.
yikes that's like something out of the second diehard, the locus of the infection, and the statements of the former Chinese defense minister, who seems like their version of the villain in mission impossible ghost protocols, re America, suggest that, maybe it's just gross negligence,
if they really wanted to create a bioweapon, however, you might do what the villain in I pilgrim, did, render it immune to antibiotics,
Aunty Trump: "Where are you seeing that?"
This is what I've been watching, and it has a lot of data from all over the world as well drilling down to our state level.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Scroll down to the "Total Coronavirus Deaths in the United States" graph and you will see the curve flattening for the first time.
Then go down to the "Daily New Deaths in the United States" and see today's bar as the first to be less than before since early March
And Ken B., Please don't lie about me. I never said the death curve was leveling off before, because it never did. Every time I post such numbers, they are straight from this source. I have no interest in misleading anyone, but I do want any good news to get out immediately. We have had enough damage from the bad already.
Those promising numbers for today may well change, and then I could be wrong on all this. I'm not sure if they are for the whole 24 hours or just so far today, but I think they cover the last 24 hours.
I don't get why some people are so attached to fighting any good news or optimism, but there sure is a lot of that out there. When this finally passes, they might get depressed.
Thank you mockturtle! Best to you. We will get through this together.
@bagoh20...I am watching the worldometer.info site too. I feel some measure of hope in the numbers.
Operavision has just released the Glyndebourne production of Abduction From the Seraglio But this is only available on a Give-A-Shit basis.
despair is satisfying
well it's in german, with subtitles,
the sum of all fears
Narciso:
My sources are reliable and credible. I've recently written two analyses on the subject for a select readership, based on the info provided by the aforesaid sources. As for "if they really wanted to create a bioweapon, however, you might do what the villain in I pilgrim, did, render it immune to antibiotics": the point is, they were still working on it when it escaped containment. They were necessarily looking to create a bioweapon per se; rather, they were researching and experimenting with ways to increase the communicability of existing coronovirus strains. Bats, who are efficient carriers, are central to this research. The goal was/is to replicate that aspect of the strain found in bats that make it so easy for bats to carry and spread it.
Inga: "She’s working 12 hour days helping to set up these facilities."
No one, in the world, builds, moves or creates stuff faster and better than the US Military. My late father flew B-29 out of Tinian. He saw what existed before the Seabees started, and his words were no fucking way these guys can do this in time.
when they were done, it was the worlds largest airport. two months.
It is good they are on top of things. better to be prepared and have the facilities if needed. Thankful for young men and young women, like your daughter, who serve. and do it with such pride.
Note:
"they were necessarily" should be "they weren't necessarily"
This (combined and edited) set of comments over at Sailer's asks a question that's been forming in my mind the last few days – what if widespread mask usage is a better alternative than public shutdown? Is American society capable of the disciplined group action that would be required?
"It’s ridiculous to me that we’re taking all these “shut it down” measures, and yet Americans aren’t wearing masks. Isn’t this a respiratory illness? I’d guess that most of the transmission is just breathing in the air that some infected person has spewed out.
Three measures:
— Sick people stay home–unwelcome in public
— Everyone wears a mask in public spaces.
— Wash hands thoroughly when back from public.
And replication ratio would be < 1.
I've been wearing one of these simple disposable masks – from my local Evergreen health clinic – on the plane for the last couple of years. (Two layers of some fabric. String over the ears. Wire over the nose.) It's not a panacea, but it radically reduces the chance of breathing in some fellow passenger's airborne virus laden droplets. And actually it is the *same* mask. It sits in velcro'd pocket in the Costco zipoffs that i travel in. At least a week between flights the viruses should be dead.
You could get by with everyone say 10 of these "disposables" and the protocol would be get home toss it in a bucket of bleach. Take the day's catch out in the evening and let them air dry. You can use 'em again when dry. Seriously, I'd think 10 of 'em per person could do the trick.
If people want something fancy or stylish, maybe all these young women now at home from their utterly non-essential "careers" could try using a sewing machine. Make themselves–and their boyfriends–a bunch of surgical masks. A couple layers of cotton in whatever jazzy looking fabric they like.
I'm not all that super-worried about this health wise. It could kick my ass–likely–or even kill me–some small chance. Extremely unlikely to kill my kids. So far most stuff i read even from "devastated" places like Italy boils down to "grandpa killer." Or more precisely–old sick grandpa killer.
I'm on board with taking "we're all in this together" harsh measures, but those measures are a complete joke if we aren't doing the most obvious measure of all for a respiratory disease–mask up!
[responding to comment about the impossibility of providing sufficient masks]
You don’t need to gold plate everything. Three masks per person–one you’re wearing, one in the bleach bucket, one drying out–could cover it.
But even if that wasn’t the case, you just do what’s necessary. If you need a factories that can scale up to 300 million masks a day–you build them as a national security matter. Ditto anti-biotics. Ditto anti-virals. Ditto … whatever it is that would be relevant. We’ve spent trillions on weapons system that we don’t actually intend to use in war. Trillions on having a nuclear weapons that are intended precisely to never be used. We’re ready if it should come to pass …
Nothing about this was unforeseen. This one is corona virus–oh we’ve never seen that before!–and kills mostly old people. LOL. This is actually so “per spec” it’s ridiculous.
No this is simple. The globalist establishment was not even remotely ready for even the most obvious byproduct of their borderless globo-homo utopia–pandemic.
Truth: our globo-goons are not just evil but grossly incompete."
Hotez and Attia say mother nature is W A Y more talented at developing a deadly virus. Think GMO and Adenovirus vector gene therapy. Bats....it's where its at.
Also, concerning your observation about creating a bioweapon that's immune to antibiotics:
All viruses, so far as I know, are immune to antibiotics.
Remember: viruses are not living organisms. They are not alive, they are not "life": they are mechanisms.
broadly speaking chemical countermeasures, it's highly likely, and very dangerous to do, but they have reaped an awesome butcher's bill in the last century, only equaled by the taiping rebellion of honqquing,
I should clarify that just donning a mask on leaving the house, and taking it off when returning, obviously isn't going to be sufficient – people are going to need to take microbiology seriously, and be mindful of cleanliness to an extent that is probably foreign to most Americans. And possibly for that very reason, it simply won't work here. But I have strong doubts that American society will accept the current policy of economic strangulation for a long enough period to successfully defeat this thing.
" I’d guess that most of the transmission is just breathing in the air that some infected person has spewed out."
Hotez thinks that is where all the transmission occurs. The cough, the sneeze. Its not the measles, thankfully.
narciso:
True dat, re butcher's bill. The most destructive wars in history were Asian. Ranked in order: 1) Mongol conquest of China; Tai-Ping; Tamerlane conquests; Chinese Civil War. Also Great Leap Forward (considered a war by a sovereign state against its own people). Throw in for good measure the Second Sino-Japanese War and the Cultural Revolution, which produced talking real serious numbers.
Prof. Althouse,
I wanted to pass this along. I think it's a help for perspective.
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
Ken B said...
Dave Begley
The media is seriously floating the idea of banning the president. Maddow and talk of not covering briefings is a feeler. The goal is to essentially cut him off entirely, in the name of fact checking. I don’t think they will succeed but I don’t dismiss the possibility either.
3/21/20, 11:42 AM
If Fox is the only network to continue to cover the daily news briefings, more people will watch Fox.
Everyone I know, including Dems, watches those daily briefings. They want to know what's going on and, even if they don't like Trump, they want to hear from Fauci and the other doctors. Everyone's home and has the time to watch the updates.
That's the problem for the media. Their utter buffoonery is being exposed.
At some point, we are going to have to come out, breathe in, and let nature take its course. Whatever it may be.
Last I checked, MSNBC has slipped below CNN in ratings. Rachel Madcow has jumped the shark.
"Those promising numbers for today may well change"
Serious quantitative analysis now being done in various places. Finding very regular patterns, very familiar from population studies, allowing straightforward testable predictions, including of maximum infections.
Message: no need to panic. Restore sanity.
My take: strict isolation of risk groups and simple precautions for everyone else will do the job.
"Now, as I complained about here last week, the CDC won't post again until Monday, which creates a blurry 3/20-3/22 count, but the unofficial site I like said Friday's daily total jumped back up to 55. Still, that's a pretty good slow down, and I hope Bag's right about the corner but I wouldn't count on it yet."
You need to look at rates, not raw numbers. The US mortality rate jumped a bit yesterday to 1.29. It's at 1.19 today. The effective rate is probably lower because I'm certain we have more than 28k infected across the country. Those are just confirmed cases.
Roughcoat observes: Remember: viruses are not living organisms. They are not alive, they are not "life": they are mechanisms.
They are parasitic in nature, requiring a host. Unfortunately, hosts are everywhere and include bacteria. Which are everywhere.
I thought today's briefing was a tour de force. Besides all the mobilization, the team emphasized that we are in day 6 of the 15-day self-isolate period. Some states and counties have had to go further.
In spite of pestering and ankle-biting, the team made clear that current actions will be evaluated at the 14th-15th day. The sun is shining. I will KCCO, Keep Calm & Carry On. Maybe we can get back to work soon.
I'm buying a load of S&P Index on Monday. I really dug Joey Ramone's Maria Bartimoro.
I should clarify that just donning a mask on leaving the house, and taking it off when returning, obviously isn't going to be sufficient – people are going to need to take microbiology seriously, and be mindful of cleanliness to an extent that is probably foreign to most Americans. And possibly for that very reason, it simply won't work here.
I think just donning a mask on leaving the house, and taking it off when returning would vastly reduce the extent of the problem. Reason being that masks primarily work by preventing the wearer from aerosolizing his/her germs and spreading to others. A dirty mask will still accomplish that.
Of course it is better to clean and sterilize regularly, but just getting people to wear masks is going to make a huge difference.
Even the @#&%! NYT is letting in a glimmer of rationality:
"Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic."
A little behind the commentariat here, but still.
The insanity has to stop. If some progs want to help it stop, good for them.
Of course, I am not assuming mere rational argument will win the day. But interests can. Even if the insanity last more than a few weeks, as some point prog constituencies will feel major pain. Soon, colleges will have to decide whether to start the new academic year, or risk utter ruin. Soon, Dems will want to campaign, even if it is best to keep Slow Joe at home. I expect the pushback to strengthen, as it should.
Besides all the mobilization, the team emphasized that we are in day 6 of the 15-day self-isolate period. Some states and counties have had to go further.
This is important. It was good to see the Feds pointing out that yes, some states may feel they have to go further than the federal guidelines, but that we are not recommending that all states shut down everything as we're seeing happen in CA, NY, NJ and IL. That gentle pushing back on state responses while still suggesting people should abide by their local requirements is important: I wonder how long it will be so gentle. Panicky local officials are almost certainly going too far in some cases, and may well need to be reined in. It was encouraging to hear that from the presidential task force. It was also encouraging to hear Cuomo in his press conference remind people that our strategy is still for many people to catch this thing, and that the vast majority of people who get it will be just fine and don't need medical treatment. Since our main objective is to avoid overloading hospitals and other health infrastructure, the people publicly sowing panic about the disease itself are doing as much damage as the people who spread it through disregard of common sense precautions that slow the spread. Panic is as big a threat as the virus now, if not a bigger one.
Any comment on Jessica's link?
Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19
1.Total cases are the wrong metric
2.Time lapsing new cases gives us perspective
3.On a per-capita basis, we shouldn’t be panicking
4.COVID-19 is spreading
5.Watch the Bell Curve
6.A low probability of catching COVID-19
7.Common transmission modes
8.COVID-19 is likely to burn off in the summer
9.Children and Teens aren’t at risk
10.Strong, but unknown viral effect
11.What about asymptomatic spread?
12.93% of people who think they are positive aren’t
13.1% of cases will be severe
14.Declining fatality rate
15.So what should we do?
16.Start with basic hygiene
17.More data
18.Open schools
19.Open up public spaces
20.Support business and productivity
21.People fear what the government will do, not infection
22.Expand medical capacity
23.Don’t let them forget it and vote
A low probability of catching COVID-19
The World Health Organization (“WHO”) released a study on how China responded to COVID-19. Currently, this study is one of the most exhaustive pieces published on how the virus spreads.
The results of their research show that COVID-19 doesn’t spread as easily as we first thought or the media had us believe (remember people abandoned their dogs out of fear of getting infected). According to their report if you come in contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well. The variability is large because the infection is based on the type of contact and how long.
The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with other infected individuals. Person-to-person and surface contact is by far the most common cause. From the WHO report, “When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78–85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. . . .
Air-based transmission or untraceable community spread is very unlikely. According to WHO’s COVID-19 lead Maria Van Kerkhove, true community based spreading is very rare. The data from China shows that community-based spread was only a very small handful of cases. “This virus is not circulating in the community, even in the highest incidence areas across China,” Van Kerkhove said.
Husband golfed today and broke 80 so he was in a good mood. The club he belongs to shut the clubhouse and isn’t maintaining the course but is allowing players to go out without a cart. People with private carts are going out one person per cart. Somebody with a house along the course called the police. The police came and talked to the course manager. Not sure of the conclusion. Here is the guidelines of California’s order:
Outdoor recreation
Can I still exercise? Take my kids to the park for fresh air? Take a walk around the block? Walk my dog?
Yes. So long as you are maintaining a safe social distance of six feet from people who aren’t part of your household, it is ok to go outside for exercise, a walk or fresh air. Gyms are closed.
Does this order affect hiking? State Parks?
No, you may still go outside so long as you practice social distancing of six feet. California State Parks have closed indoor facilities and campgrounds, but trails and outdoor spaces are still open. Spending time outdoors can lead to a number of overall health and wellness benefits like lessening anxiety, boosting creativity and getting your vitamin D. If you decide to make a trip, remember to keep social distance.
For information on National Parks, please visit their website here.
Pets
Can I walk my dog? Take my pet to the vet?
You can walk your dog. You can go to the vet or pet hospital if your pet is sick. Remember to distance yourself at least six feet from other pets and owners.
Despite the above the club will probably have to shut down.
They are parasitic in nature, requiring a host.
Yes, but ... a minor quibble: as they are not living organisms, but rather chemical constructs ("mechanisms") it might be more accurate to say they mimic parasitism, being as how parasitism is associated with living organisms. Virusus only mimic life. Parasitism is a means of staying alive so as to reproduce and ensure species survival.
Only a panpsychist would say that a virus "reproduces."
As it happens, however, I may be a panpyschist Not sure about that.
And I'm glad you enjoyed that Joey Ramone tribute to Maria. I hope one day it's the theme to her prime time show.
More from that Medium article --
COVID-19 will likely “burn off” in the summer
Due to COVID-19’s sensitivity to UV light and heat (just like the normal influenza virus), it is very likely that it will “burn off” as humidity increases and temperatures rise.
Released on March 10th, one study mapped COVID-19 virality capability by high temperature and high humidity. It found that both significantly reduced the ability of the virus to spread from person-to-person. From the study,
“This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.”
The University of Maryland mapped severe COVID-19 outbreaks with local weather patterns around the world, from the US to China. They found that the virus thrives in a certain temperature and humidity channel. “The researchers found that all cities experiencing significant outbreaks of COVID-19 have very similar winter climates with an average temperature of 41 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit, an average humidity level of 47% to 79% with a narrow east-west distribution along the same 30–50 N” latitude”, said the University of Maryland.
“Based on what we have documented so far, it appears that the virus has a harder time spreading between people in warmer, tropical climates,” said study leader Mohammad Sajadi, MD, Associate Professor of Medicine in the UMSOM, physician-scientist at the Institute of Human Virology and a member of GVN.
"Despite the above the club will probably have to shut down."
Despite not having to, a number of restaurants in our town shut down as of today, including our two favorites.
Declining fatality rate
As the US continues to expand testing, the case fatality rate will decline over the next few weeks. There is little doubt that serious and fatal cases of COVID-19 are being properly recorded. What is unclear is the total size of mild cases. WHO originally estimated a case fatality rate of 4% at the beginning of the outbreak but revised estimates downward 2.3% — 3% for all age groups. CDC estimates 0.5% — 3%, however stresses that closer to 1% is more probable. Dr. Paul Auwaerter estimated 0.5% — 2%, leaning towards the lower end. A paper released on March 19th analyzed a wider data set from China and lowered the fatality rate to 1.4%. This won’t be clear for the US until we see the broader population that is positive but with mild cases. With little doubt, the fatality rate and severity rate will decline as more people are tested and more mild cases are counted.
Higher fatality rates in China, Iran, and Italy are more likely associated with a sudden shock to the healthcare system unable to address demands and doesn’t accurately reflect viral fatality rates. As COVID-19 spread throughout China, the fatality rate drastically fell outside of Hubei. This was attributed to the outbreak slowing spreading to several provinces with low infection rates. . . .
Looking at the US fatality, the fatality rate is drastically declining as the number of cases increases, halving every four or five days. The fatality rate will eventually level off and plateau as the US case-mix becomes apparent.
•4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
•3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)
•3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
•2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)
•2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
•2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)
•1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
•1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)
•1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)
•1.76% March 17 (109 of 6,196)
•1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)
•1.51% March 19th (208 of 13,789)
•1.32% March 20th (256 of 19,383)
Source: Worldometers.info
daskol, every time I take a break from puttering on my new bamboo fence, I go back to the deck and listen to it at least twice on "the YouTube." If I did karaoke, I'm very ready. They can hear me from the bus stop but I can't see them. I sing loudly.
Reading the Medium article, is it OK if I breathe a little easier?
Or am I obligated to continue to freak out MSM/Dem/Anti-Trump style?
more of a steady state
The effective current mortality rate in Italy is 0.00007141666.
I always read the theologian Joseph Ratzinger with great pleasure and attention. But Mark cites a passage of his work at 1139 in order, it seems to me, to defend the decisions of the Bishops to forbid public celebration of the sacred rites on account of the plague.
If the argument is that we ought to make use of the situation by turning it to our spiritual advantage (a true celebration, as it were, of the mystery of Good Friday and Holy Saturday), well, sure: that seems to me what we are called to do in any adversity and so particularly when we are deprived of Mass or of Holy Communion. Sure.
Using it to defend the Bishops in this matter seems to me misguided, however.
I would be more inclined to defend them if they had e.g. rooted out the abusers from their midst and from their seminaries and schools, if they had more coherently preached the orthodox Faith during the last fifty years, etc etc etc. As it is, this nation-wide interdiction of public worship seems bureaucratic spinelessness. Still, perhaps it is for the best; I don't know, obviously.
I would be more inclined to defend them . . .
Now, Marc -- respectfully, but you're sounding just like the MSM's response to Trump in this crisis. And it is just as valid an argument.
And, to be sure -- I am NO fan of the bishops -- especially the USCCB.
And I have had fairly frequent contact/business with them.
The decline in death rate makes perfect sense in light of the increased testing and confirmed cases. In spite of what's going on in Italy. Honestly, does anyone know what's going on in Italy???. My daughter and SIL are in nearly daily contact with friends in Tuscany who have been hit hard by the decline of tourism [they own a B&B and winery] but do not see nearly the infection numbers and rate that northern Italy has. At least yet.
The effective current mortality rate in Italy is 0.00007141666.
It's even lower on the moon.
Is it true ONE person in New Rochelle NY infected the next 50?
I supposed Trump is to blame for individuals who lie about their exposure or people who do stupid shit. Ironically, people who do stupid shit corresponds with people who watch MSNBC.
Roughcoat, by 'parasitic in nature' I was referring to their behavior. Perhaps 'by nature' would have been more explicit.
The media is seriously floating the idea of banning the president.
After 3+ years of the hack-D press/Maddow-Hillary-Avanatti-revenge-Schitt-show attempting to ban the president, is it any surprise?
"Looking at the US fatality, the fatality rate is drastically declining as the number of cases increases, halving every four or five days. The fatality rate will eventually level off and plateau as the US case-mix becomes apparent."
You can't divide deaths by cases. Deaths lag by about three weeks.
They are parasitic in nature, requiring a host. Unfortunately, hosts are everywhere and include bacteria. Which are everywhere.
Almost all plants and animals, certainly all the ones we like, e.g. mammals, trees, grass, coca bushes, also need bacteria to live.
These arguments are really discussions about the definitions of words, "alive" and "reproduce", which are "social constructs" in the worst sense since the words predate useful knowledge about these organisms. Or any other organisms, really.
"Viruses depend on the host cells that they infect to reproduce."
"The word reproduce is commonly used when discussing viruses, but in the strictest sense, viruses do not reproduce. ... Whatever you call it, however, the result is the same: viruses multiply."
What is that saying about a distinction without a whatever? Or vice-versa?
Viruses multiply and chemical poisons don't.
Freeman Hunt:
You can't divide deaths by cases. Deaths lag by about three weeks.
And for this reason, I will be patient and abide by most of the imposed restrictions for another week and a half.
After that we should all return to normal activities with appropriate concern to those in at-risk groups.
As I mentioned the other day, China cannot be trusted on this epidemic.
I'll see if I got the link correct this time.
"Only a panpsychist would say that a virus "reproduces.""
Makin' copies.
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/copy-machine/n10022
Roughcoat said...
Also, concerning your observation about creating a bioweapon that's immune to antibiotics:
All viruses, so far as I know, are immune to antibiotics.
Indeed, and it's intriguing / curious that one of the proposed cures for this disease is *chloroquine plus azithromycin. Also in general it's tough for us to cure viruses and it's interesting that anything but a vaccine is even on the table.
"You can't divide deaths by cases. Deaths lag by about three weeks."
So in fact, the mortality rate will drop even lower as a subset % of new cases will be recoveries as well or people not even hospitalized.
"In spite of what's going on in Italy. Honestly, does anyone know what's going on in Italy???."
1. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese nationals/immigrants at work in Northern Italy -- travel to and from was not inhibited
2. More smokers
3. Lower sanitary standards
4. Higher age population
5. Healthcare system built for daily life but not widespread emergencies.
6. More intimate culture.
Hometown Hero Ignaz Semmelweis shows how to wash your hands.
For some reason the discussion of viruses (neither living nor dead?) brings to mind the book "Mechasm" by John Sladek.
Will probably head out soon--it is a sunny spring day at last, crisply cool--for some groceries and take-out pizza (which we rarely get any more but sometimes you have to make sacrifices).
Narr
Wish us luck
Blogger Mark said...
Any comment on Jessica's link?
...
(remember people abandoned their dogs out of fear of getting infected)
That's strikingly horrible and stupid.
Some viruses eat bacteria and can be beneficial in that regard [see bacteriophage].
I'm wondering about the connection between the anti-malarial drugs and the lack of cases in sub-Sar Africa, where the population tends to be resistant to malaria.
That lack of cases might be nothing more than poor reporting, or not enough time - the MSM, and perhaps the gov't, which excludes race from the demographics they release, will never let us know.
Known Unknown: Yes, and Italians are a lot more physically demonstrative [huggy-kissy-touchy] than are many other cultures.
793 deaths in Italy yesterday.
Italy was late acting, and had a large community of workers from Wuhan, and had hug a Chinese day, so they did everything wrong. But if we do everything wrong we will get to that point too.
If the Chinese had been honest and taken steps even just 3 weeks earlier it would have made a huge difference.
Question:
is the virus directly responsible for the death?
and/or are the deaths caused by weakening of the cells so that bacteria
comes in and finishes the job?
If so, the Z-pak could kill the bacteria?
any thoughts on this?
Somebody with a house along the course called the police. The police came ...
It didn't really take much at all to reach that creepy state, did it?
[Y]ou're sounding just like the MSM's response to Trump in this crisis...
I'm pretty sure nobody here wants to read a discussion of intramural Catholic nonsense, but I don't get your point there. I assure you that I have no desire to mimic the MSM in any respect whatsoever.
We have here an elaborate scheme to facilitate the hearing of confessions involving each penitent waiting in his car until he sees his number displayed on a large placard through the old school building window and so on and so forth-- something could have been worked out for the hearing of Mass. And don't get me started on the subject of why Masses in Holy Week and at Easter been already cancelled, weeks before the dates.
Known unknown talks about Italy's death rate. You realize rate implies a time scale, right?
is the virus directly responsible for the death?
HHS says Meanwhile, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), "influenza and pneumonia" took 62,034 lives in 2001— 61,777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified.
...
Thus the much publicised[sic?] figure of 36,000 is not an estimate of yearly flu deaths, as widely reported in both the lay and scientific press, but an estimate—generated by a model—of flu-associated death."
Kinda like global warming.
Conspiracy buffs will enjoy discussions about the CDC being in cahoots with manufactures of flu vaccines.
The Medium article is not to be trusted. “Data is data.” No, that is false. The underlying models, knowledge, precedents all matter. Viral marketing guys are not virologists.
But before we go . . . I happened to catch a few minutes of the NPR current-events show (Wait Wait etc?) this a.m. and there were actually some pretty smart jibes at Sanders and the lefty-left-- which went absolutely nowhere with the audience.
I think it was a combination of simple pc ("That's not funny!") and unfamiliarity ("I know it's time to laugh when the guy says 'Trump,' when is he going to say 'Trump'?).
Narr
Maybe I'll hear another few minutes of the show some day
Does anyone think the virus showed up in the U.S. earlier than February 1?
"The underlying models, knowledge, precedents all matter. Viral marketing guys are not virologists."
Do the models account for adaptive behavior?
“Data is data.” No, that is false.
Correct. It should be 'data are data'. ;-D
But yes, your assertion is correct as well. And statisticians are not scientists, at least in my book.
I realized recently that the focus on toilet paper and, by association, buttholes, has wiped the whole transgender/pronoun thing off the media's radar. Everyone has a butthole thus the focus on that particular region has somehow made us realize that no matter what gender you were born, how you identify, what box you check now - still can relate to everyone else with a butthole that needs to be wiped.
Known Unknown: yes, but we have no way of knowing for sure. You might say it is unknown.
"Known Unknown: yes, but we have no way of knowing for sure. You might say it is unknown.
So we could already have some existing immunity in places? People who are already recoveries from milder cases? A completely different-looking curve?
I'm just curious. Not trying to be Pollyanna-ish.
ALP's right. I think we're most alike below the waist and most different above the neck.
Narr
Speaking as a lifelong mammal
Does anyone think the virus showed up in the U.S. earlier than February 1?
The President was talking about the need for action at least as early as February 4 in the State of the Union.
As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries, including the first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV infection in the United States, reported on January 20, 2020.
Me neither. That seems likely given travel in and out and back of the US earlier, and if it is as communicable and infectious as they say. But I'm no stats guy, yield my time to Yancey and Auntie and the like on that.
My work puts me on a plane to various spots in the US weekly. Traveled as such in December, except the week between Christmas and New Years, and up to last week. I assume I've been exposed. Have had no symptoms.
I don't know about this virus or any other, but some people are definitely immune and resistant to hope and possible good news.
Michael K /Re: "China cannot be trusted."
Indeed not. The Chi-com dictators hold tight state run control over their media (like the American left desire)
**Also - Speaking of Fake News/Chi-Com state run media: I heard on Maddow that the entire world solved the virus, *except here in the US - where Trump is making it worse.
This is the thing about 20-20 hindsight. At the time you have no idea how significant a single data point is. It would be irresponsible, unprecedented, and highly criticized to take any significant action immediately upon that one data point. This is something conveniently ignored by people with an agenda outside the truth. Trump was the first and earliest to take action, and he took strong action, it was unprecedented, and highly criticized, especially by the same people now saying he acted too slowly. Funny how you can get away with that slight-of-hand these days, or any time the President is not a Democrat.
The first case in the US was a WA state man from Snohomish County who had been in Wuhan. Reported Jan 21. This was about the time it was recognized that human to human transmission was possible. [Note that this was not the start of the Kirkland nursing home cluster which was transmitted by a staff member later]
January 30: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a global health emergency. This was a significant step that the WHO declined to take eight days ago.
January 31:
US takes the unprecedented step of barring entry to all foreign nationals who recently traveled to China.
Major US airlines announced they were suspending flights to China.
The first U.S. confirmed patient --
On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.
Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).
Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.
On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay.
I just read data coming from China's experience. The disease seems to be harder to transmit than first thought. When in casual contact with an infected person your chances are only 1-3% of catching it, but it depends on type of contact and length of contact. Most transmissions are believed to be via direct transmission of droplets from sneezing or coughing.
So if you accept that, then even in contact with an infected person your chances of death are say 2% X fatality rate of 1% (some data shows it lower), which works out to a 1/20,000 chance of death even after making contact with an infected person. Multiply that times your chances of having contact with an infected person, and I think you get a number that says calm the fuck down. If you are under 20, your chances are zero, and sightly higher the older you get.
Your chances of dying from a car crash are 1/103. Just walking down the street is a 1/500 chance.
Wow. On another site I saw one guy suggest that Italy's covid death toll is high because .... drum roll ... they are passing off suicides as covid deaths.
No one here can come close to that level of stupid.
"The first case in the US"
Confirmed case.
Roughcoat said...
Narciso:
My sources are reliable and credible. I've recently written two analyses on the subject for a select readership, based on the info provided by the aforesaid sources.
*********
Then name your sources and cite your analyses.
Or is your "select" readership of the "Spinal Tap" kind?
Ken B, those rumors are probably false because the number of deaths seems to stay in proportion to the number of confirmed cases. In the past 24 hours, 6557 new cases were confirmed so the virus would seem to be out of control there.
Mockturtle
“Data is data” is what the author of that piece says to convince us that his experience as a viral marketer makes him competent to explain why the professional epidemiologists are wrong.
Domain knowledge matters, matters more than facility with R, and it matters most when the data is/are sketchy or incompetent.
The death rate in New York is 0.5% and dropping. It will continue to drop. Divide by 2 as half the cases are asymptomatic.
The true death rate will be 0.1-0.25% or the same as a normal-to -bad flu season
This is not worth $5 trillion.
Tiger's playing really well today. I wonder how he'll do tomorrow.
More good news: Cuomo asks for help, and gets a ton of it from the private sector, becuase that's who really does things in this country, when we don't shut them down.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/eagles-up-cuomo-tweets-out-request-for-supplies-and-america-rallies-to-help/
And your natural death rate hits 0.25% on an annual basis in your early 40’s and of course increases from there to roughly 100%
Gregory Rigano Retweeted
InceptionViet
@InceptionCap
Replying to
@InceptionCap
@biannagolodryga
and 4 others
Prior research has shown that Azithromycin has antiviral effects in bronchial epithelial cells, despite being commonly used as an antibiotic. https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/45/2/428
Azithromycin shows antiviral activity in humans https://jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(15)00859-3/pdf
Novel antiviral properties of azithromycin in cystic fibrosis airway epithelial cells
Azithromycin reduces rhinovirus load in CF bronchial cells, possibly through the induction of the interferon pathway http://ow.ly/BVw2U
erj.ersjournals.com
they are passing off suicides as covid deaths.
No one here can come close to that level of stupid.
Actually, that is the law here in the United States, that cause of death in suicides is not killing yourself by say, drug overdose, but rather the cause put on the death certificate is some underlying disease. At least, that is the law when the doctor assists the person in the suicide.
Some people here, the denialist, are treating the disease like a taint. They don’t think the *number* of early cases matter. If 100 infected people arrived or 2 they treat that as equivalent. It is not remotely equivalent. That is why travel bans etc make a difference.
No one here can come close to that level of stupid.
There are so, so, so many stupid panicked people in this country. Looking at the numbers, this is not a threat to 95% of us. But my pool guy said that most of his clients canceled this week, because they were afraid of the pool guy coming on their property. And going to the backyard and sanitizing the pool. People are so imbecilic that they think that is a threat to them in some way.
How do we function as a country when so many people cannot figure, even a little bit, how unlikely it is for them to get this and how unlikely it is for them to transmit it someone else and how unlikely it is for anyone to suffer seriously even if they do get it?
Mark
Italian doctors are not practicing assisted suicide by Corona virus.
Freeman Hunt said...
"Looking at the US fatality, the fatality rate is drastically declining as the number of cases increases, halving every four or five days. The fatality rate will eventually level off and plateau as the US case-mix becomes apparent."
You can't divide deaths by cases. Deaths lag by about three weeks.
********************************
Yes, you can. The day-by-day deaths reported are cumulative, and capture those who were alive on Wednesday, for example, but dead on Friday. If what you say were true we would see an INCREASE of the death rate over time.
We're not.
Disagree? Show us your data.
Stuck on pessimism.
I suspect reassuring stats are more likely after a few researchers get disappeared.
And missing the point.
"The media is seriously floating the idea of banning the president."
You got to admire their persistence. They have tried everything else, and repeated failure does not even phase them. Bless their hearts.
What does it matter if it is suicide or "assisted suicide," Ken??
Must you be contrarian in everything??
Someone should remind people to read Plagues and Peoples by William MacNeil every day until we get herd immunity from crazy bullshit. I've got today covered. It's short and smart.
" But my pool guy said that most of his clients canceled this week..."
My landscaping guy told me the same thing, as he finished up a big project for my business today. He gave me a great price, and I paid him extra. Virus ain't all bad.
@ Lawrence Person
Re: Warren Zevon's song "Splendid Isolation": Agree 100% regarding his album Transverse City being underrated. That was one of my favorite albums by Warren. Would have made a great soundtrack for a 90s cyberpunk movie.
As of today, I'm more concerned about a flair-up of diverticulitis or some other bowel/intestinal issue or straining my Achilles tendon than I am of contracting and having a seriously bad experience with corona.
That wasn't the case earlier this week.
I already also have low-grade anxiety issues which has ramped up, but has lessened today.
This might be the right week to start drinking again.
Anyone know where I can get me an Alaskan Polar Bear Heater?
Mark said...
The first U.S. confirmed patient --
On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever.
****************************
That means Trump waited eleven whole days to announce a China travel band.
The ineptitude! The incompetence! The unfeeling lack of concern for Americans!!
S N O R T
Mark said...
This might be the right week to start drinking again.
**********
I'm calling booze my Comfort Beverage.
I didn't know that Mr. Peanut liked to hang out at the Purple Pit.
Tiger's playing really well today. I wonder how he'll do tomorrow.
I thought the tour was postponed.
4:57 - @Bagoh
Your link needs a second mention. Private Sector steps up. This is how it's done.
I should ask mock if she wants to bet some money on the game.
There's been a run on Gin within a 30 mile radius zone in Michigan.
“Everyone wears a mask in public spaces.”
Out and about today at Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and a popular walking trail and didn’t see a single person wearing a mask. I think the idea is unpopular because it suggests to the uninformed that the wearer is sick or vulnerable and so stigmatizing. Might take a while to break that perception.
I predict Tiger will fall one shot short and Paul Casey will win the tournament.
Update: Gin and Prep H.
Things are looking up.
This might be the right week to start smoking again.
like the old man on sterno in andromeda strain, we might need some over hundred proof,
There were several, mostly men, wearing masks in Walmart this morning. One had a kerchief tied around his mouth and nose, looking like a bank robber.
Disagree? Show us your data.
I think that's the point; we are still very early in the whole data collection period. We have no reasonable information as to how long the virus has been in the US and the extent to which people have been exposed/infected. I'm hopeful that we will have gathered enough information in the next week to ten days to make informed decisions.
Yes, I'm going there narcisco.
Remember just recently when the corrupt liar knee-cap the president press attempted to twist what Trump said about 'Do it on your own' some-such.
What Trump was saying to the governors was - you don't need me to get it for you - just go and get it. Cuomo is doing it. Good or him, btw.
Ask and you shall receive.
Whine, and you turn into a troll or a Maddow hack.
mockturtle said: But yes, your assertion is correct as well. And statisticians are not scientists, at least in my book.
As someone who worked as a statistician in grad school for extra bucks, I have to say that you are correct.
Statisticians are expert technicians that scientists hire because they were the ones paying attention in grad school stats classes.
There is reason for hope, folks.
This might be the right week to start taking amphetamines again.
Post a Comment