১৯ মার্চ, ২০২০

"Success means a longer — though less catastrophic — fight against the coronavirus. And it is unclear whether Americans — who built this country on ideals of independence and individual rights..."

"... would be willing to endure such harsh restrictions on their lives for months, let alone for a year or more.... If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic.... Adopting some mitigation strategies to slow the pandemic — such as isolating those suspected of being infected and social distancing of the elderly — only cuts the death toll in half to 1.1 million, although it would also reduce demand for health services by two-thirds. Only by enacting an entire series of drastic, severe restrictions could America shrink its death toll further.... That strategy would require, at minimum, the nationwide practice of social distancing, home isolation, and school and university closures. And such restrictions would have to be maintained, at least intermittently, until a working vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months at best.... If the numbers next month get truly crazy, cities may look to convert stadiums into isolation wards, as in Wuhan. [Governor Andrew] Cuomo has talked of turning the six-block-long Javits Convention Center on New York City’s west side into a medical surge facility. Others might take Italy’s approach and split hospitals into those treating coronavirus and those treating all other medical problems, to reduce transmission. In San Francisco, we may see coronavirus patients put into RVs...."

From "Coronavirus will radically alter the U.S./Here’s what may lie ahead based on math models, hospital projections and past pandemics" (WaPo).

২৪৪টি মন্তব্য:

«সবচেয়ে পুরাতন   ‹পুরাতন   244 এর 201 – থেকে 244
DavidUW বলেছেন...

also. same people who say we over spend on health care are willing to throw a couple trillion on a few people over 80 who already have heart failure and in any case, if healthy, have about an 11% chance of death in the next 12 months.

bullshit.

sprx বলেছেন...

We’re being asked to accept living in a style previously thought to appropriate to the aftermath of a nuclear war and submit to martial law because we don’t have enough hospital beds and ventilators? Get the damn beds & ventilators!

Achilles বলেছেন...

stevew said...
Not having received an answer I will ask again: what has to happen for our government to give the 'all clear', back to normal signal?

Aunty? Achilles? Yancey? Inga?

I don't have the luxury of chillin' in a hot tub, smoking cigars, or thinking happy, helpful thoughts, or musing on math problems. I need to earn a living. When can I expect to get back to that?



Sooner rather than later. It will be a matter of weeks for smaller establishments and bars and gyms. Most construction has not stopped.

I think the NBA will probably be a leader here working with MLB to break the ice. Trump is quite interested in moving on too but I think he realizes he has to let others do the deed.

The key issue here is that this is helping Trump and the people who turned this into a biblical epidemic need to change the subject fast.

Just as there is massive peer pressure now to freak out and attack people who are actually looking at he numbers, this will flip real fast and people will want to avoid responsibility for pushing this.

New York City will provide some grist for a week or so it looks like. But the nationwide aspect of this is short lived.

It will be a completely local story soon.

Ken B বলেছেন...

Yancey
Serious epidemiologists and data people do not misunderstand the sudden increase in *known* cases and the growth of testing. Are you the only mathematically sophisticated person in STEM? /s
But the data point of the number of cases is important in itself. It indicates a floor on how long the virus has been spreading, and to what areas. If reasonably random it allows a rough estimate of infection.

tim in vermont বলেছেন...

"what has to happen for our government to give the 'all clear', “

Unless something changes, like a surefire cure or a vaccine, like I said, it’s going to be up to each of us to take our chances. My prediction is that there will never be an “all clear”

"Based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend against the use of ibuprofen,”

Not for nothing, but it’s all made in China.

Achilles বলেছেন...

Calypso Facto said...

(I think the site Achilles links to is doubling the report)

They are populating the tables right now I think but something is wrong. National and state by state are not currently matching up.

One thing I have noticed about this site is that no matter what the numbers posted are their graphs are perfectly exponential in shape.

Perfectly.

Mark বলেছেন...

Yeah, I skip TNG. It was must-see TV back in its original run, but decades later, not so much.

Mark বলেছেন...
এই মন্তব্যটি লেখক দ্বারা সরানো হয়েছে।
Mark বলেছেন...

Instead, for the second hour, we'll play Guess that Episode of Stargate SG-1 --

The team takes on one of the Goa'uld.

Mark বলেছেন...

Damn. Wrong thread again!

Ken B বলেছেন...

The WHO does recommend against ibuprofen if you get flu like symptoms.

Achilles বলেছেন...

Ken B said...
Yancey
Serious epidemiologists and data people do not misunderstand the sudden increase in *known* cases and the growth of testing. Are you the only mathematically sophisticated person in STEM? /s
But the data point of the number of cases is important in itself. It indicates a floor on how long the virus has been spreading, and to what areas. If reasonably random it allows a rough estimate of infection.


I think if you did random testing in New York City right now you would get a shockingly high number.

Not as high as the flu though.

I Callahan বলেছেন...

Ken B - you're late

Backtrack

I Callahan বলেছেন...

I've seen the argument about the growth of testing, but that doesn't mean the mortality rate is going up at the same rate. In fact, it's the opposite. The more you test, the LOWER the mortality rate.

So I'm not sure why this argument keeps being made.

FullMoon বলেছেন...

Ken B said...

The WHO does recommend against ibuprofen if you get flu like symptoms.


Comment at 8.22 says they changed their mind. Does not inspire confidence..

stephen cooper বলেছেন...

Last year an average person turning 80 years old on March 21 (happy first day of spring!, by the way) was looking at something like a 5 to 10 percent chance of dying within the next 18 months.

This year an average person turning 81 years old on March 21 is looking - in a bad scenario where this virus kills about a million of us - at a 20 or 25 percent chance of dying within the next 18 months .

The numbers would be, in that scenario, much much better for people at 70 or 60 or 50.

In that world, in that scenario, nobody is going to blame anybody for difficult choices for personal freedom, as long as those choices are made prayerfully.

But .... if it looks like this virus is going to kill ten million of us, that is a different scenario. And if the virus mutates and starts killing thousands and thousands of young people, all bets are off. We could be like one of those countries that is losing during a world war (say, Japan 1944 or Germany 1916), with respect to austerity measures.

There will be, after all this is over, some country or province that will have been hardest hit. Right now it is Wuhan or Northern Italy or Northern Persia, all places where many wonderful people, loved by their families, have died in their thousands. It could be some other place by the time this is all over - our beloved Pacific Northwest, the beautiful island of Luzon, who knows? Pray for the people there.

FullMoon বলেছেন...

The more you test, the LOWER the mortality rate.

Yep, some commenters here wondering if the illness they had recently was the virus. Most people do not go to the doctor.

Gk1 বলেছেন...

"what has to happen for our government to give the 'all clear', back to normal signal?" Stevew it's like all liberal programs there is never any success or metric for victory just an endless war. I presume it will end once Trump's election chances are screwed. Then we can see 180 degree turn by the washpo with the fabled "Hey,lets stop moping around now! Slow Joe's President now. It's all good!"

Spiros Pappas বলেছেন...

Looks like we're going to war with China.

Achilles বলেছেন...

Spiros Pappas said...
Looks like we're going to war with China.

Be interesting to see if they have any friends left after this.

At least friends outside the White House media corp.

steve uhr বলেছেন...

Achilles - just curious. How many deaths will it take for you to look in the mirror and say “that guy is a dumb fuck”?

YoungHegelian বলেছেন...

@Spiros,

Looks like we're going to war with China.

This pandemic will, long term, probably do horrible things to China. Remember, 4 of the last 5 "almost" pandemics came out of China. They've known that they were a hot bed of infections, but seemed unable to do anything about it. Christians & Falun Gong & Uighurs, they can kick their asses! But, filthy meat markets filled with weird animals & viral labs selling lab animals to those same markets, well, that's beyond their ken.

The One Belt, One Road initiative has turned into the One Road to Hell for two of its participants (Italy & Iran). Italy, in turn, infected the E.U. Somehow, for now, the African countries in the OBOR have not had major outbreaks (weather?).

How can China now export its people as students, as tech workers, as factory managers, if they are seen as vectors of pestilence? How can China be the world's factory if periodically that supply chain brings mass death & economic dislocation to the tune of trillions of dollars along with it?

I honestly believe that China is bribing the press, and bribing them handsomely, to talk sweet about China & bad mouth those, like Trump, who are calling out China. It's a cheap investment, no matter how many millions it costs, compared to having the whole of China's national destiny since Deng Xioa Ping get thrown into the shitter.

Seriously, I'm expecting regime change or civil war in China within five years from this. I wouldn't be surprised to see a modern Taiping Rebellion, except with the various religious groups breaking off various provinces at about the same time.

FullMoon বলেছেন...

"steve uhr said......."

Welcome back. What's new since you got fed up with this place and vowed never to return?

pacwest বলেছেন...

@steve uhr - my take
The answer to your question is one. Life is precious. If even one life is wasted by not throwing all our available resources at this terrible pandemic it is a tragedy beyond compare.

Or, alternatively, 30 million. It would wipe out 50% of the non-productive members of society, extend the life of SS and Medicare for decades as well as transfer a huge amount of wealth to a more productive portion of the population.

Did you have some sort of acceptable number in mind? Or are we just haggling about the price?

mockturtle বলেছেন...

Maybe the WaPo are trying to get people really, really angry so that civil unrest will spring up, enabling these Prog/Nazis to exert their newly established emergency powers. Something to think about.

Robert Cook বলেছেন...

"What a croc of shite... the left is salivating at the thought they might be able to use the Coronavirus to achieve their secret totalitarian desires..."

The Kooks Are Out On Maple Street.

walter বলেছেন...

pacwest makes it sound like a feature not..a bug.

Ken B বলেছেন...

YH
About the bribes. Unnecessary.
We even have Althouse spinning out Chinese propaganda today.

I have long used the phrase “two city type”. The Japanese cabinet did not surrender after Hiroshima. For half the cabinet it took two cities. They are two city types (the rest were more than two cities types). The world is full of two city types. I expect we have two pandemic types as well. One of them is about to win his party's nomination I think.

It doesn’t look good tbh. To achieve what you want will take years. And it will face stiff opposition.
Just two weeks ago 219 house democrats sponsored a bill to stop any travel ban. Wanna bet some are two city types? Most of CNN, NBC, MSNBC, and so on are two city types. You don’t need to bribe them.

Ken B বলেছেন...

I Callahan
Thanks for the link. Good to hear, I think.

Ken B বলেছেন...

Achilles
I think they will have lots of allies, if not quite friends.

Ignatius Acton Chesterton OCD বলেছেন...

For liberals, the solution to everything failed program is MORE of the program.

The megalomania looks so fun. It’s like playing doomsday with your model train world, when Godzilla shows up stomping around, breathing fire, knocking over trains, buildings, forests, etc.

Only the megalomaniac, he/she who has cornered the market on both intelligence and wisdom, can save the world from destruction.

The solutions only require great sacrifice, with no end in sight, with no goal or specific outcome. Just more, more, MORE!

Pay attention to the math. Follow the money.

mandrewa বলেছেন...

mockturtle said,

"Let's all hope and pray that hydroxychloroquine is the magic bullet. We should know soon!"

We all ready know the answer to that. It's not a magic bullet. It's not going to keep everyone that has the coronavirus from dying.

What it will do, if used properly, is significantly reduce fatalities.

And we basically already know that also. We know this because of preexisting animal studies. And we also know it because of what is happening in South Korea right now, where they have been using this for a couple of months now.

I was thinking earlier about how medical trials fail. One way they fail is by having poorly designed protocols with unrealistic expectations.

Obviously we want a magic bullet that can heal seriously ill people. Since we want that someone is going to run a trial where hydroxychloroquine is treated as such. And then of course is will fail.

People will say oh it didn't work.

Yes, it fails to be a magic bullet, but what it probably can do is substantially reduce the number of fatalities, especially, I suspect, if it is used very early in the course of an infection.

That's the trial for this substance that has the best chance of success. Ie., what happens when hydroxychlorine is given to people quite early in their infection? How much does that reduce the fatality rate?

Bob Smith বলেছেন...

Once again, California and New York have their panties in a knot.

walter বলেছেন...

mandrewa,
Have you seen this?
https://www.covidtrial.io/

Achilles বলেছেন...

mandrewa said...

I was thinking earlier about how medical trials fail. One way they fail is by having poorly designed protocols with unrealistic expectations.

Doesn't the new treatment have to demonstrate it is significantly better than current drugs?

Are there other rules?

mandrewa বলেছেন...

Aunty Trump said, "I just read the guidelines and given my heart rhythm issues, I am pretty sure it would be a hard no. I stopped drinking after having two gin negronies at a party, they contain quinine, and I was in bad shape for two days. Maybe it was the quinine? Maybe if I stuck to vodka? Hope springs eternal!"

You can't combine hydroxychloroquine and alcohol.

That could kill you!

mandrewa বলেছেন...

Walter said,

"Have you seen this?
https://www.covidtrial.io/"


No, I had not seen that. Thanks!

Yancey Ward বলেছেন...

"Serious epidemiologists and data people do not misunderstand the sudden increase in *known* cases and the growth of testing. Are you the only mathematically sophisticated person in STEM? /s
But the data point of the number of cases is important in itself. It indicates a floor on how long the virus has been spreading, and to what areas. If reasonably random it allows a rough estimate of infection."


Well, they don't speak up, Ken. Instead, the media runs rampant with the story that the virus is expanding explosively, and they use the new cases number to back it up, but if you actually look at the testing data, the numbers of new cases is roughly in proportion to the tests run everywhere- this was obvious with South Korea 2-3 weeks ago, and is now seen in Italy, Germany, the U.S, and the UK. Some places keep finding about 5% of the people tested are positive, and they find this with 10 tests on day 1, 100 tests on day 2, 1000 tests on day three and so on. Other places the percentage of positives is lower, some higher, but the proportions are fairly constant. Eventually some places, like China and South Korea start to detect the decline of the number of infected in the population- the value that is the big unknown- then, and only then does the number of positives decline as a percentage of the tests run, and also the daily new cases start to fall off a cliff on the other side of the bell curve.

Yes, the testing data, as incomplete as it is, can tell us something- if we know how prevalent cold/flu-like symptoms are at this time of the year for a given state or country, we can probably make a guess based on the percentage of positives what the actual number of infected is for a given geographic location. I am sure the epidemiologists know this value- the CDC has years and years of data on such infections- and I suspect that it informs the claims of some of the health officials that the true number of infected is some magnitude 1, 2, or 3 higher than the tests show.

I suspect this even informed Newsome's stupid shelter in place order for California. He is an idiot for thinking 25 million Californians will be infected, and he an idiot for reacting this way, but he was probably told that infected pool in California alone was in the half-million to 1 million range. He over-reacted, but at least he probably did so on some fundamental analysis of the testing results. These actions won't have much effect, and will cause a lot of economic damage for little benefit. The disease is burning through the population it can infect as I write this, and probably is at or nearing it's peak for this season.

walter বলেছেন...

China claiming threat to them is now external.
Love it!

walter বলেছেন...

Hug a Seattle-ite!
Xenophobic?

Achilles বলেছেন...

Ken B said...
Achilles
I think they will have lots of allies, if not quite friends.


Who exactly?

They just fucked the people of Iran and Italy.

Democrats and the media sure. But that is going to come around on them pretty hard too.

Team globalist couldn't have had a worse event or handled it any more badly than they have.

Achilles বলেছেন...

steve uhr said...
Achilles - just curious. How many deaths will it take for you to look in the mirror and say “that guy is a dumb fuck”?

If this epidemic outstrips the worst possible estimates of Swine Flu deaths I will admit I was wrong.

We didn't freak out and set our economy back by a year for Swine Flu.

I understand you all are scared and feel a lot of pressure to act like this. I know you are kinda limited.

stevew বলেছেন...

"Unless something changes, like a surefire cure or a vaccine, like I said, it’s going to be up to each of us to take our chances. My prediction is that there will never be an “all clear”

That sounds right, and seems like a mistake in approach by the government. If they don't define the conditions for lifting the sheltering and social distancing advice/order people will take it upon themselves to decide when that is and compliance will collapse.

Bilwick বলেছেন...

Those damned Americans, with their independence and individual rights! If only they'd listened to their betters in 1776!

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