... tell us something you think. And be patient. In search of calm, we're using more moderation.
March 12, 2020
At the Sunrise Café...
... tell us something you think. And be patient. In search of calm, we're using more moderation.
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325 comments:
1 – 200 of 325 Newer› Newest»So, is Apollo another Q?
Was Trelane a Q? (I already asked that when that episode was up.)
Don't worry. In asking these questions, I'm keeping my distance.
Meanwhile Daniel Jackson has returned. Apollo does have some of that Goa'uld arrogance in him.
Of course, with Daniel Jackson back, Jonas is on borrowed time.
I got angry today by Biden's hysterics about testing for Covid-19, exploiting already fearful people who are loading up a year's supply of toilet paper and bottled water, etc., and now are being lead by a pseudo president to believe that testing everyone will make us safer.
If we found out that many people are testing positive and have no symptoms or very mild flu symptoms wouldn't people be less likely to live under quarantine and cancelling public events?
Just shut down all schools in our area for 6 weeks. 500000 kids out of school.
This is absurd. This is just really stupid now.
Everyone is trying to show they can freak out more than the other people.
This blog under moderation is like visiting your sick grandmother in a hospital, but having to talk to her through inch thick acrylic walls...... plus having her in a coma.
Feh. Moderation back on. Why can't the drama queens just skip commentators until Althouse has time to delete her?
I for one, am glad that they cancelled the NCAA tournament. There is an overabundance of March Madness already.
Initially, I was really bummed and angry about shutting down all the college and professional sports seasons. Thought it was stupid and unnecessary. So, it put me in a bad mood for the afternoon.
Now, I'm zen-ing with it. More guitar, more hikes, more golf, more books, hopefully lose 10 pounds, maybe write a bit more, maybe a few house projects, so it will work out fine.
I do have to wonder. Is the ineptitude displayed thus far by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) due to their being politically partisan bureaucrats who are too inept to do what is right? Or are they as expert as advertised, but deliberately doing a poor job in order that the blame wash over Trump, no matter how many Americans die needlessly? Or is there some form of "AND" in there?
The most terrifying words in the English language are: "I'm from the government [in this case, the CDC] and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan
'...Ashish Jha, who runs the Harvard Global Health Institute, says the response to the coronavirus has varied dramatically around the world. "Some countries have been very aggressive and have actually done quite a good job," he says. "Other countries have been quite lackadaisical and, I think, have suffered immensely from it. And I think there are lessons to be learned for all of us."
'...As people started to get sick, neither Italy nor Iran did much testing. They were slow to stop mass gatherings. Eventually both countries were overwhelmed with cases.
So how has the United States' response been?
"Our response is much, much worse than almost any other country that's been affected," Jha says.
He uses the words "stunning," "fiasco" and "mind-blowing" to describe how bad it is.
"And I don't understand it," he says incredulously. "I still don't understand why we don't have extensive testing. Vietnam! Vietnam has tested more people than America has." (He's citing data from earlier this week. The U.S. has since started testing more widely, although exact figures still aren't available at a national level.)
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started screening overseas travelers for coronavirus in mid-January. But the initial test kits developed by the CDC were flawed, and it took weeks to sort out the problems. It's only this week that wide-scale testing has started to become available in the United States.
Jha believes that the weekslong delay in deploying tests — at a time when numerous other tests were available around the world — has completely hampered the U.S. response to this crisis.
"Without testing, you have no idea how extensive the infection is. You can't isolate people. You can't do anything," he says. "And so then we're left with a completely different set of choices. We have to shut schools, events and everything down, because that's the only tool available to us until we get testing back up. It's been stunning to me how bad the federal response has been."
He says right now there are probably five to 10 times as many cases out in the community as have actually been detected. Until these individuals are found, they are likely to infect more people, he says, and the outbreak in the United States is just going to continue to grow.
Hong Kong, which began testing in January and has been right up against the epicenter of the global outbreak, had only confirmed 126 cases through March 10. On that same day the U.S. reported twice that number for the previous 24 hours.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news
Why did the CDC screw up so badly by sending out test kits that didn't work?
Haven't heard who at the CDC should be held accountable (and fired) for this.
It's likely to be a big election issue.
I hate, hate, hate the moderation. [There, I told you what I think. ;-) ]
Until running into an extended Fox News link at Hotair, I had not listened to geezer Joe this cycle. I just assumed that he was completely brain dead, since that seems to be what the cool kids say.
Anywho, such low expectations could help him. Even w/o that crutch, he seemed better than the other guy re back-to-back virus stuff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TotJRMYKRN4&feature=emb_logo
IMHO.
I think we're in for a two month economic hiatus. I hope I'm wrong. It will be bad for a lot of hourly employees.
BTW, floks don't need to spend seven grand for Numi toilets.
You can nearly eliminate the need for TP for much less.
Just sayin'
P.S. If you can swing it the Numi is the only way to go.
IMHO.
And thanks for moderating. Too bad it's necessary. Someone needs to have a metaphorical stake driven in to their heart. Or IP address.
lovely.
Hey Ann and Meade - you might appreciate this:
Kimbal Musk,
The Kitchen
I think this is viewed by the Deep State in the US as an opportunity to regain their power over many facets of our day-to-day lives, to initiate many of the policies that expand the reach of the State, and control over the economy.
So, on balance, will the virus cause population decline or population growth?
Must be a zero day exploit that is hitting a lot of the right leaning blogs. Lucianne.com and WattsUpWithThat.com both infected. I think Instapundit was also attacked because they are doing browser checks.
Moderation sucks. I appreciate the problem of she who shall not be named has erupted again recently, but it still makes coherent discussion difficult.
I think covid should be the final nail in the coffin of open borders. But looking at reactions from the usual suspects it seems clear it is not. I think it should also be the end of China as a principal drug source. Some drugs are inherently difficult to produce in many places (an example is Premarin) but that is not true of most generics and antibiotics that we use on a large scale. So that needs to be addressed, and I dread reading how Libertarians respond.
"Intelligent optimism is never faith in progress but rather hope in a miracle.
Who can live well without hoping now and then for a miracle" ????
Don Colacho
The lack of testing is not a big deal.
We know what the worst case scenario is, and we know what the most likely scenario is.
The moral choice as to what to do is the same, no matter what the test results say.
Famous line from Laurence Meade: If you can keep your wits about you my son while all others are losing theirs... the world will be yours and and everything in it, and what's more my son you will be Ann Althouse's man.
I suppose I'm curious about what happens if the virus turns out to be nothing like the doomsday scenarios appearing in the media right now.
Do the people get pissed off about it, like when everything is cancelled for a predicted blizzard but all you get is some light rain? Or does it all become something of a joke as occurred with SARS or Y2K.
How will the politicians and media react? Do they try and keep the hysteria going like with Russia or will they pretend that they were never one of the people pushing the panic?
From a rational standpoint we should be thrilled if that happens, but there doesn't seem to be too many rational actors out there right now.
“People don’t think”
Or some people think and use logic, and other people feel. And some people feel like we know enough right now that we don’t need to take precautions, and some people think about it and decide “no, we don’t know enough to stop worrying."
I suppose I'm curious about what happens if the virus turns out to be nothing like the doomsday scenarios appearing in the media right now.
Simple and obvious, dems will trash Trump for over reacting while at same time taking credit for preventing catastrophe. Will happen right here in the comments on this blog.I guarantee it..
Most excellent. It immediately called to mind the movie about JMW Turner wherein he added a splash of red paint to accentuate a work that seemed to be 'missing something' and it made all the difference. Lovely.
Every day I am more convinced this is a deliberate attempt to crash the economy. We've been convinced that highly contagious is akin to deadly.
This is stupid.
We are planning a June trip to Stratford Festival. The Canadian dollar is back down to 1.37 American so $185 rooms at The Arden Park are $135, and we should get low airfare to Toronto or Buffalo and cheaper tickets. And Hamlet is back again.
But the wife worries that we will get trapped in Canada? Next up is Carmel. But no cruises, as much fun as that sounds with the whole ship to ourselves.
I don't think Democrats put much thought into anything any longer. There are two outcomes- (1) the panic is vastly overdone and virus recedes in importance by the middle of Spring, and Trump declares victory over the virus, taking full credit for it; (2) the worst case scenario unfolds and a 100,000 die, but the US weathers it far better than any other country, and Trump declares victory over the virus, taking full credit for the better outcome in the US.
Don't have much on my Costco list but by tomorrow my curiosity may force me to make a trip to check things out.
If they have toilet paper, I will refrain. Would rather pay an extra dollar elsewhere than look like a .....
Also, may go by the Vietnamese restaurant which was empty yesterday to see if business has picked up..
Think I will just chill out with that gray view. Very lovely and peaceful. Thank you.
Ot amc is bringing line of fire in marcg the police series by the fellow behinfbody guard.
As I watched Granny Pelosi tell America at her presser how the Democrats have America's back on the coronavirus, my thoughts turned to all of their efforts to thwart the border wall, curtail illegal immigration and their support for open borders.
Lijian Zhao 赵立坚
@zlj517
· 11h
2/2 CDC was caught on the spot. When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!
“China is not our enemy.” - Joe Biden.
This blog under moderation is like visiting your sick grandmother in a hospital, but having to talk to her through inch thick acrylic walls...... plus having her in a coma.
Yes. Fortunately, it is not the only one.
We are trying Costco delivery tomorrow.
My DIL has cancelled her trip with the two daughters to N Carolina to look at colleges. Easter break.
My daughter, the epidemiologist, shared this with me.
It's from the internet, and she can't verify all of the sources, but she says the math models are familiar. It's the incoming data from China that is suspect.
I do hope that the threat is overblown, as a lot of people are saying. But the situation in Italy seems quite dire. I guess it's reassuring to think that can't happen here because of whatever, but I'm not so certain that we'll handle it better than they have.
Iman said...
"I think this is viewed by the Deep State in the US as an opportunity to regain their power over many facets of our day-to-day lives, to initiate many of the policies that expand the reach of the State, and control over the economy."
E.g. Gov. Evers' emergency order ending public indoor gatherings of more than 250 people...many churches will be affected. I don't totally disbelieve that Covid-19 is a threat, but I also don't discount the possibility that such orders could be invoked for other 'emergencies.'
“I got angry today by Biden's hysterics about testing for Covid-19, exploiting already fearful people who are loading up a year's supply of toilet paper and bottled water, etc., and now are being lead by a pseudo president to believe that testing everyone will make us safer.”
Hysteria? What is going to have to happen to get you folks to take this thing seriously?
'A top Iranian cleric said the country's citizens could use a potential coronavirus vaccine made by Israel if they could find "no substitute."
"It is not permissible to buy and sell from Zionists and Israel," Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi said Wednesday. "Unless the treatment is unique and there is no substitute."'
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/iranian-cleric-says-coronavirus-vaccine-from-israel-would-be-ok-to-use
Of course, the Israelis may decide that it is really not in their best interest to sell their vaccine to a country that embraces "Death to Israel" chants.
How many died today in USA from Corona? How many from other strains of flu?
"What is going to have to happen to get you folks to take this thing seriously?”
So do you think that Biden would have overruled the CDC and ordered testing to be handled by private companies over their objections from the get go?
Hysteria? What is going to have to happen to get you folks to take this thing seriously?
We will know it is serious when you guys cancel the Biden/Sanders debate, for "safety".
More guitar, more hikes, more golf, more books,
I bought extra guitar strings, and a new Epiphone Casino. I'm in love.
They want to cancel waldorf and statler debate, just in case one attacks jorge ramos
If the panic runs its course by end of April can we have baseball back?
I suppose I'm curious about what happens if the virus turns out to be nothing like the doomsday scenarios appearing in the media right now.
Easy. It's going to be a big nothing as it likely would have been anyway, but the shoe-washers and school-cancellers will declare that their efforts saved us all from certain death so the overreaction will become the new normal and 'obvious prudent thing to do.'
Now before you all start yelling at me, I understand and support 'flattening the curve' even as I think that normal hygiene and social distancing for those who have special reason to be careful would have done the trick. But now we'll never know for sure, and just as we're used to being groped and nudie-scanned by the TSA we're going to have to get used to having our right to assemble and go about our daily lives and engage in economic activity withdrawn on the conjectures of the credentialed.
Another observation: I find it interesting that many of the climate skeptics who comment here find it completely reasonable (as I do) to question the conclusions, integrity and unbiased thinking of climate scientists but shriek and ridicule about 'listening to the experts' when it's epidemiology.
One more: I'm on vacation in Phoenix spending spring break with my daughter who studies at Arizona State. They had some of the first cases on US soil, and yet it's generally situation normal here. No one is wearing masks, restaurants are full, hordes of people are visiting for spring training, there are no pumps of sanitizer anywhere, everyone is using pin pads and elevator buttons and handrails as usual. ASU has moved many classes online but events are still moving forward, tutoring centers/dorms/libraries/dining halls are still open, and they are going to reevaluate in two weeks. Consider that no one seems to be clamoring for draconian measures in one of the retirement epicenters of this country. Not everyone thinks this is an emergency.
Given the wide variation in containment measures across the country, not to mention the huge variation in testing, we will never have any good data about this, ever.
UPS delivered several hundred rounds of ammo to my front door in Seattle......where you can't but ammo!!
If you expect every blog commenter to "take this seriously” you are in for a long wait.
"How many died today in USA from Corona?" 3 reported deaths
"How many from other strains of flu?" Not sure what you mean by "other" but we don't know how many Americans died today from influenza. Most people who die from flu-related complications are not tested for flu, or they seek medical care later in their illness when influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples.
Ask your first question again 2 weeks from today. I truly hope the answer is less than 3. But I doubt it will be.
About 8,000 people have died in the U.S. in the last day.
Well.....you might be able to but ammo in Seattle, but you can't BUY it.
I think the objective is to crash the economy what theyve wanted to do for 3 1/2 years,
They want to cancel waldorf and statler debate,
C'mon man!! Update your paradigm!! The debate is between Demented, and Disheveled.
Politicians are incompetent. The media traffics in hysteria and sensationalism. Covid-19 is a serious threat.
All of these are true, and none disproves the other.
Bay Guy what’s your favorite guitar to play? Mine is a Gibson SG (American made 1984).
About 8,000 people have died in the U.S. in the last day.
Following that logic, 9/11 wasn’t such a big deal since only 3,000 died.
How many days before people start getting irritated at being cooped up? No sports, no school, no large gatherings, working from home rather than the office. How soon before they get worn out from all the angst and worry and hype?
narciso said...
They want to cancel waldorf and statler debate, just in case one attacks jorge ramos
--
That's pay per view worthy.
And school canceling is soooo effective: they extended spring break by a week in our district, and my teenager daughter just mused, "We're going to have so much fun going to the mall and the movies!" I mean, I could stop her from going, but how many families are going to just go about their business and let their kids do what they want, potentially spreading all these dangerous germs out in the community? At least at school they could douse them with sanitizer and monitor for fevers.
Trump didn’t ban travel from Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo, or Turkey, the only Muslim-majority states in Europe. DASS ANTISEMITIC!
'pants,
Sometimes it seems more about mitigating perceived or actual liability.
They might need a tranq gun.
(If you save one teacher..)
Wont they close the malls next, they are already postponing the premier of the quirr place sequel
I’ve been from CA to NY and back this week. Newark, LaGuardia, DFW, Phoenix airports are humming, maybe 60-70% of flights that would normally be full. The hype about Airlines suffering “more than after 9/11” is laughable.
I've weathered about a 10% drop in value of my savings and investments so far, but I'm not selling: The only people profiting at this time are the Soros people shorting stocks.
I think the real Democrat/Deep State Plan is cause a stock market turn-down by cancelling everything and getting consumers to stay at home and buy nothing but toilet paper and soap.
Rod Dreher, of course, has joined the anti-Trump virus Hysteria. Like all never-trumpers, President Trump is always wrong, and By God if we only had a Giant like Joe Biden in office Things Would Be Different. The MSM-DNC is now in full campaign mode to support Biden and get Trump. Look for any Biden gaffes to be buried on Page six, and for Slow Joe to be presented as "Mr. Competent Moderate", even though he's never been either.
Never sell during the first downturn. I noticed Cruise Line stocks are getting destroyed, but I don't think Cruises are going away. Maybe a time to buy.
How many days before people start getting irritated at being cooped up? No sports, no school, no large gatherings, working from home rather than the office. How soon before they get worn out from all the angst and worry and hype?
Hover many days it takes to oust Trump and to put Joe Biden well ahead is the answer you seek.
Crunchy Rod has enthusiastically decided to trash his own credibility.
Blogger Mark said...
How many days before people start getting irritated at being cooped up? No sports, no school, no large gatherings, working from home rather than the office. How soon before they get worn out from all the angst and worry and hype?
Pretty quickly I would guess. To make it work you need a leader who can get buy in from a reasonable percentage of the population. Mario Cuomo is proving effective in NY. The states have had to pick up the slack from the failed federal leadership.
@rcocean:
I think the real Democrat/Deep State Plan is cause a stock market turn-down by cancelling everything and getting consumers to stay at home and buy nothing but toilet paper and soap.
What explains conservatives states and governors following similar courses of action? Are they part of the plan?
Indeed, chickelit
chi-coms and D-party deep state +media are loving this virus.
Mario Cuomo is proving effective in NY. The states have had to pick up the slack from the failed federal leadership.
Wow. I got tired before reading to the end of this comment.
Even with Mario Cuomo being dead for decades now.
Mario Cuomo.
Now there was a tedious politician.
What upsets me about this whole Wuhan virus is that people seem to think that getting the disease is a death sentence - it isn't. The death rate is 1% and that's counting people who were sick enough to be tested. There's no evidence this is any worse than then the 2009 H1n1 virus. But nobody panicked then. Its the damn flu. Its not AIDS. Its not a life crippling disease.
Also, what happens in 30 days? What's the end game? From what I can understand the vaccine is months away. So, when are things going to start up again? We can't keep cancelling every meeting with more than 10 people forever.
Mine is a Gibson SG (American made 1984).
Are you trying to start a flame war?? I'm sure there are a lot of guitar players here......
Is there even ONE of you people interested in being part of the solution, rather than just bitching and moaning and being part of the problem?
And "you people" know whom I am referring to.
“
Blogger traditionalguy said...
We are planning a June trip to Stratford Festival. The Canadian dollar is back down to 1.37 American so $185 rooms at The Arden Park are $135, and we should get low airfare to Toronto or Buffalo and cheaper tickets. And Hamlet is back again.”
Be aware that this is a regietheatre Hamlet. Hamlet is played by a black woman.
That’s a good price for the Arden Pak, which is a good hotel well located. There is a nice breakfast place just east of it.
Bay Area Guy reports: Now, I'm zen-ing with it. More guitar, more hikes, more golf, more books, hopefully lose 10 pounds, maybe write a bit more, maybe a few house projects, so it will work out fine.
That's the spirit! ;-D While I suppose I can survive without sports, I feel especially sorry for the athletes.
What upsets me about this whole Wuhan virus
CNN and MSNBC and CBS and Washington Post and New York Times go on and on and on about the "Wuhan virus" and the "Chinese Wuhan virus," etc.
And let the President and other hated enemies of the left use the same terminology and suddenly it is a crime against humanity.
Enough.
"What explains conservatives states and governors following similar courses of action?"
States aren't "Conservative" or "Liberal" only the Pols who run them. And just because they have R after their name, doesn't mean they aren't deep state. CF: Jeb Bush, George Bush, Romney, etc.
Further, you completely ignore that once things are started, the political pressure becomes impossible to resist. Panic the mob by hysterical Media coverage and equally hysterical Democrat Politicians - and no Conservative Governor can resist the political pressure.
@rcocean:
What upsets me about this whole Wuhan virus is that people seem to think that getting the disease is a death sentence - it isn't.
Not sure what people you are referring to, but probably every single thing I have read about Covid-19 reiterates it that it is most dangerous to the elderly and those with certain underlying health conditions. But simply focusing on the percentage that die is not the whole story. A higher percentage of people still need extended medical care in a hospital. Hospitals do not have infinite capacity to treat people. The purpose of self-isolating is to the slow the spread and thus lessen the load on healthcare systems as more people get more sick and require hospitalization.
But let me ask you a serious question: what is your reasoning behind thinking that this cannot happen?
A Canadian Dollar = 72 USA cents.
did everyone see CA Governor Newsome give Trump-Pence a good review?
Yeah - media ignored it.
Gibson SG, 1966.
I guess I can sell it if the event cancellations continue..3 today.
did everyone see CA Governor Newsome give Trump-Pence a good review?
I saw that California is guilty of trademark infringement in stealing the look of the White House press room for their own use.
(That's a joke..never gonna sell it..I hope.)
@ Farmer. We have 39 deaths. People get hospitalized by the flu every year. Hundreds of thousands. 12,000 died last year from it. I don't see the medical evidence that this is a killer disease, even for the very old. And I repeat, how long are we going to continue this Cancelling everything with more than 50 people. And what happens when we go back to normal. OR are we waiting for a vaccine that is months and months away?
This is my guitar. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
Apologies to the Marine Corps!
Again, you'd think we were dealing with the Black Plague. This is unheard of - I've never experienced this in my entire adult life, and I go all the way back to Reagan. Its out of control, media manufactured hysteria.
Interesting fact : As of this morning, there have been 39 deaths in the US and 26 are from the same nursing home in Washington State.
Anyway, they'd better not cancel the Masters, or I'm really going to be upset. Good night to all.
As the CDC first began dealing with this, the Democrats were busy impeaching the president for asking for information about Ukraine shenanigans involving US officials.
Again, you'd think we were dealing with the Black Plague. This is unheard of - I've never experienced this in my entire adult life, and I go all the way back to Reagan. Its out of control, media manufactured hysteria.
It's like a '50's black and white science fiction movie.
Rcocean
It might not be a killer disease if it happens at a low enough rate. But if it comes in a sudden wave then it will overwhelm hospitals, doctors, pharmacies, nurses. In that case it will be much more deadly. And it will cause many problems for others needing those resources.
Is a sudden wave a serious risk? It is. Look at northern Italy. And that isn’t the only example. There is a YUGE difference between 50% of us getting over 6 months as compared to 1 month.
Farmer has repeated this till he is blue in the face.
DOW Futures already down 500 and change. A lot of these trades are done by high frequency traders with tons of money behind them that have a time horizon measured in microseconds.
DOW futures down 600 now.
Everybody thinks they will liquidate and use the cash to get really rich when the collapse happens and they can buy up real estate and going businesses at pennies on the dollar.
That’s my theory of what they are thinking, anyway.
@rcocean:
We have 39 deaths. People get hospitalized by the flu every year. Hundreds of thousands. 12,000 died last year from it. We have 39 deaths. People get hospitalized by the flu every year. Hundreds of thousands. 12,000 died last year from it. I don't see the medical evidence that this is a killer disease, even for the very old. And I repeat, how long are we going to continue this Cancelling everything with more than 50 people. And what happens when we go back to normal. OR are we waiting for a vaccine that is months and months away?
Oy vey. Italy also gets the flu, and when was the last time you remember the flu overwhelming their hospital systems? Every single study that has yet come out about the virus suggests it is deadlier than the flu. Even if the CFR was only 0.2%, that would make it about twice as deadly as the standard flu. And depending on your age and health background, the CFR could be much higher. The way you contain the spread is to avoid unnecessary social contacts, especially large crowds in an enclosed space. China was able to slow down their spread through very draconian quarantine methods. South Korea did expansive testing of its population to quarantine the infected and uninfected.
Is it your impression that this virus will simply stop spreading on its own volition, and no change in behavior or activity is required? Trump doesn't even believe that, otherwise why be behind the European travel ban. Why not let people from Germany and France come in by the plane loads if it's "just the flu"?
From the CDC website:
CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the U.S. However, CDC has estimated the burden of flu since 2010 using a mathematical model that is based on data collected through the U.S. Influenza Surveillance System, a network that covers approximately 8.5% of the U.S. population (~27 million people).
Estimates* from Oct - Feb (*because influenza is not a reportable disease) for the 2019/2020 flu season: between 34,000,000 - 49,000,000 people were infected and became ill; between 350,000-620,000 hospitalizations with influenza; between 20,000 - 52,000 have died from flu.
As of 3/12/20, CDC has reported Covod 19 -- 1,215 cases and 36 total deaths in the USA.
I take both the flu and Covid 19 very seriously because I hate being sick and because I have sensitive lungs. I have practiced social distancing for years during flu season. I agree that because Covid 19 is an unknown it needs to be handled with extreme caution and I am grateful for the excessive measures. However asserting that large numbers of people will die or could because of a lack of tests and blaming it all on Trump, IMO is both dumb and irresponsible.
I just saw an interview @msnbc with a hospital administrator from Cleveland who said that they have developed tests and was asked if that will save lives. His answer was that it would because they would know who to recommend stay home. So if people have the regular flu they are free to roam? The 20K-50K who died from regular flu don't matter? If people are sick they should stay home regardless of the type of flu, imo.
Trudeau's wife has the virus now. It would seem likely that he will, as well. Surely they will both be quarantined.
You are correct, I meant Andrew Cuomo. Doesn't change the fact that the Federal leadership is currently a black hole of incompetence.
Of course, the reaction to the Corona virus is worse than the threat covid-19 actually presents. Covid-19 has caused a massive auto-immune response that is causing systemic damage to our country at all levels.
Because we dont want to import more cases like that idiot state department holder william walters.
We have 39 deaths. People get hospitalized by the flu every year. Hundreds of thousands. 12,000 died last year from it.
From the CDC: Number of deaths in 2017 --
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Indeed, and dont get me started on that idiot at the who who had hos thumb up his (redacted) for months.
Jeezum Crow. Dow now down over 700.
Because we dont want to import more cases like that idiot state department holder william walters.
Of course. I am a supporter of the European travel ban. My question was mainly rhetorical. If Covid-19 presents no more serious risk than the flu, than why have a travel ban at all.
Covid-19 has caused a massive auto-immune response that is causing systemic damage to our country at all levels.
More than that, it's led to a lot of national Kevorkians coming out to cause systemic damage to our country at all levels.
You are correct, I meant Andrew Cuomo. Doesn't change the fact that the Federal leadership is currently a black hole of incompetence.
Hey, ARMy!! Irony much??
Trudeau's wife has the virus now. It would seem likely that he will, as well. Surely they will both be quarantined.
Maybe die.
I'll tell you what's tedious: SportsCenter without sports.
Self-reflection must be rationed in your klan as well.
Manager of Arsenal now tested positive. That’s why they are shutting down these leagues. They are simply not worth it.
Gotta wonder how solid the DNC convention looks at this point.
@Mark:
From the CDC: Number of deaths in 2017 --
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Admittedly, I am not exactly sure how the CDC classifies these things but notice the "and Pneumonia" part. Only about a third of pneumonia cases are caused by viruses. Most are caused by bacterial infections like pneumococcus.
Aunty Trump said...
Dow now down over 700.
AT is having as big a crisis over the stock market as they had over their gender.
They should 'buy the dip'. Good advice if ever I have heard it.
Thats months from now, when milwaukee will look like the opening from demolition man
ARM....lemme guess....you're over 55. You have a beard that you consult while writing, and you drive a Subaru.
This is my guitar. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
Apologies to the Marine Corps!
This Old Guitar.
I actually first heard this in a bio-pic. I was immediately taken by it.
If you listen to the story before, John Denver relates how his grandmothers 1910 Gibson was once used as a weapon against him.
Not gonna take up my challenge to try to be part of the solution, are you?
Amazon is down 8%, what explains this
....and on the back of the Subaru, you express all your erudite opinions in strips of 3x11 bumper sticker paper.
Tim Murtaugh, Trump 2020 communications director, responded in a statement on Thursday.
“In the past, Joe Biden has shown terrible judgment and incompetence in the face of public health issues," Murtaugh said. "The Obama White House had to publicly apologize for and clean up after Biden when his irresponsible remarks caused panic during the swine flu outbreak in 2009. Just weeks ago, he was openly critical of President Trump’s early move to restrict travel from China to the United States in response to the coronavirus – a decision which medical experts agree helped impede the spread of the virus to this country. Yesterday his campaign actually raised the vile conspiracy theory that the President purposely allowed the coronavirus to spread. In times like this, America needs leadership and Biden has shown none. President Trump acted early and decisively and has put the United States on stronger footing than other nations. His every move has been aimed at keeping Americans safe, while Joe Biden has sought to capitalize politically and stoke citizens’ fears.”
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/cortneyobrien/2020/03/12/trump-campaign-responds-to-joe-bidens-coronavirus-remarks-n2564813
A lot of Chinese-made products on that Amazon.
Amazon is down 8%, what explains this
Their HQ is in Seattle?
Infectious disease specialists will tell you that mass testing of everybody will cause a certain percentage of false positive results. On a mass scale, this could mean tens of thousands of false positives nationwide, possibly eclipsing the number of true positives.
Thats months from now, when milwaukee will look like the opening from demolition man
Ha. Maybe we'll finally get to learn how those damn three seashells work.
narciso said...
Amazon is down 8%, what explains this
A failure to 'buy the dip'.
Rob schnieder used that line.
Rob schnieder used that line.
It was also the closing line between Stallone and Bullock just before the credits roll.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started screening overseas travelers for coronavirus in mid-January. But the initial test kits developed by the CDC were flawed, and it took weeks to sort out the problems.
Back when I was a federal contractor I would have rated the “not invented here” syndrome as one of the biggest impediments to building working systems for various agencies. Mind you, it was great for business — the federal government would throw gazillions of dollars to the successful bidder to have us build a unique system for them when they could buy software that did nearly the same thing as their expensive, one-off system but it wasn’t uniquely theirs. In this case test kits from WHO were readily available, but CDC wanted their own. Okay if it works, but this time around they botched it.
That, plus another adage: “there’s never enough time to do it right but there’s always enough money to do it over.”
Tim Murtaugh (re Obiden-bama's speech): "Yesterday his campaign actually raised the vile conspiracy theory that the President purposely allowed the coronavirus to spread."
The dems and the ChiComs have their messaging nearly aligned now.
The ChiComs tend to be just about a week ahead of the dems and a week ago the ChiComs were complaining about the US and its actions, which is where the dems are today.
But just today the ChiComs floated blame against the US military for creating the virus and kicking it off in Wuhan.
I suspect we are only about a week away from the dems demanding hearings on this, similar to their 1980 "October Surprise" conspiracy theorizing which also maps nicely into the dems 2016-Present russia collusion hoax.
So, to change the topic --
We've done books. Watching that clip I linked to, what genres of music do folks like?
I like pretty much all of them pre-mid 90s -- from chant/polyphony to the various styles of classical to blues/jazz to big band to the evolution of rock from the 50s to the 80s to show tunes to dance music to country, etc. No rap, hip-hop or whatever the hell they call "music" today.
But I have to say that having grown up on it, the various styles of folk always touch me. I was not a fan of the "folk Mass," but the folk music of that era is still fresh.
"AT is having as big a crisis over the stock market as they had over their gender.”
I have to hand it to you, that “they” thing is annoying. So score one for you.
This Old Guitar.
There were a couple of high-school girlfriends, and some terriers, but today I just confuse their names.
"I wish I woulda started over,
Thanked Him for gettin' older,
Not made promises, unsober.
And Dusty pictures, on the walls
Frameless memories all,
Surely soon, some will fall;
And no more standin' tall."
Since few point out their viral testing is in the middle of (redacted) "
City, they get away with it.
One cool thing about watching Bloomberg at this hour is that I can see my old apartment by Lavender Bay on the backround featuring the Sydney Harbor Bridge. It was down the street from the apartment of the swimmer guy in Muriel’s Wedding.
I wonder if Jimi Hendrix will travel between generations. Some of his stuff is okay, but does anyone want to listen to a lengthy psychedelic guitar solo. Will he go the way of Ravi Shankur and North Star?....We're nowhere near the capitulation point. The argument is no longer 40% but how much further than 50%. It's already fallen further, faster than at any time in my life. I have lived my wealthiest moment on earth. I suppose in a few month there will be a bit of a snap back, but the market psychology is irrevocably changed. People will sell on the puffs....I used to like to contemplate my winnings. I have been a failure in many dimensions so it was pleasant to consider that in this area of human endeavor I wasn't a total washout.
\\
This is a link you probably aren't worthy of, is my guess so far; I anchor people. I do it well. O
Moved on to watching/listening to clips of Simon and Garfunkel.
The stock selloff is largely algorithm-induced, is it not? Automatic sell signal at a certain value?
"but the market psychology is irrevocably changed.”
The globalism that Biden represents stands naked before us, and wanting. Sanders and Trump are the two men who oppose globalism, and they are the two men that the globalists are trying to destroy, even now in the moment of greatest shame for the globalists. Now when their entire philosophy stands exposed for the farce that it has always been. There used to be a joke about “Rosy Scenario” budgeting, well, our economy has been predicated on a future that is an endless boulevard of green lights, in other words, a fantasy.
Fortunately, Chyna's leaders are responsive to their "constituents"...
General Siamand Mashhadani, one of the #Iranian Revolutionary Guards Top Commander , was killed by the #American airstrike in #Iraq. - Twitter
You kill two our our soldiers in a missile attack while we are distracted by a pandemic, and we will still find the time to make you pay. Mark this down as a “lesson learned."
I wonder if Jimi Hendrix will travel between generations.
You mean....?
Yes, he will, but not all those trash recordings that surfaced after his death.
If those Iranians want to be safe, they ought to go home to Iran.
"I wonder if Jimi Hendrix will travel between generations."
I onced was threatened with physical harm for suggesting that 50 years from now essentially no one would be listening to The Beatles, or buying their music, I imagine this applies doubly for Jimi Hendrix, even though I am quite fond of a lot of his music, and he died when I was 4.
I just look at how many composers from the 17th, 18th, and 19th century are still selling music today- very, very few. Who were the Mozarts and Beethovens of the 20th century? Of this part of the 21st?
I dont think that will work.
I suspect Sinatra will outlast Elvis.
"f those Iranians want to be safe, they ought to go home to Iran.”
Harsh.
if you have been hoping that the low death rate from Taiwan was a sign that this was overblown... well, I don’t want to harsh your mellow, but it turns out that the false positive rate of the test was incredibly high. That these drive through tests of asymptomatic individuals only screwed up their numbers. What really contained the virus their was their police state style contact tracing, not the bullshit testing that doesn’t seem to have actually worked.
https://twitter.com/Perryalt1/status/1238314946909237249
The stock selloff is largely algorithm-induced, is it not? Automatic sell signal at a certain value?
Mostly true. There are also a lot of day traders speculating. Thus we have big swings.
Right now, the investment firms are deciding when to go back big into the market. Equities were somewhat overvalued, but now they are a terrific investment.
I was going to cash in stocks to buy a new SUV, but the market crash dissuaded me. (I am a cash buyer). However, I realized that now is the time to get low interest financing. I can pay off the loan when the market recovers. The market will recover.
Not to worry.
"Le Premier Bonheur du Jour"
- Françoise Hardy
By the way, here is a pretty decent Coronavirus article. Unfortunately, he is still tied down to the belief that COVID-19's first victims were in Wuhan, and in December of 2019. His reasoning is solid but for that near certain error, which skews his predictions- in short, he is vastly underestimating the numbers of people who have been exposed everywhere.
This idea is starting to give way, though- a number of officials in the governments around the world are starting to realize that the virus escaped containment before anyone even knew it existed- the latest being the lead health official in Ohio.
At this point, you work to protect the elderly as best you can, the rest of us are just going to get the virus no matter what we do. If they start random testing of the residents of Wuhan, for example, for antibodies to COVID-19, they are going to find there weren't just 60,000 infected, there were 2-3 million at a minimum.
Raphael
- Carla Bruni
We have an advantage the Italians, Iranians, and the Chinese didn't have- we can act to protect the people most vulnerable to this infection, and isn't necessarily all that hard to do.
Putin's and the Saudis’ attack on our fracking industry is weighing heavily on the market. As when the Wuhan flu is burned out, we may wake up to a new reality where the US energy industry has been crippled for years to come. This means higher energy prices and not just that, but sending the money overseas again.
"Unfortunately, he is still tied down to the belief that COVID-19's first victims were in Wuhan, and in December of 2019”
What evidence do you have that this is not true?
I think thats a fair bet, the cases radiate outward iran italy into the rest of western europe.
Something a little more jazzy --
"Dans ma rue"
-- Isabelle Geffroy (Zaz)
Aunty Trump,
You don't throw a test like this together in a week and expect it to be accurate. While there is nothing at all wrong with the techniques being used- they are used extensively for other viruses and gene expression events in which specific RNA fragments are detected- but each test is unique for the RNA sequence you are trying to detect in a massive mess of other RNA and DNA fragments. These tests are usually extensively validated in blind studies with control samples to get good statistics on the fail rates, both false positives and false negatives. None of this could have been done in the time frames being discussed, so, I for one, won't be surprised if we find that a lot of data is nonsense. And don't get me started on the problems of contamination- the PCR part is so powerful it doesn't take much contamination to give a false positive.
David Vance
@DVATW
·
16h
Many Italians in Northern Italy sold their leather goods and textiles companies to China. Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese from Wuhan/Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct Wuhan flights. Result: Northern Italy is Europe’s hotspot for Wuhan Coronavirus
"Globalism is great,” they said. “Everybody will get rich!” they said.
"What evidence do you have that this is not true?"
That it is in every country on the planet, and widely spread geographically in the countries with the most confirmed cases, all in just 2 1/2 months. This suggests it had already spread to the US, for example, in the Fall of this year at the latest.
The first person to try to determine cause of a death in such a case, did so because three people died of pneumonia in Wuhan who came from the same family- within a week or two, the virus had been identified and sequenced. It would be a staggering stroke of luck for these to be the first such cases in Wuhan itself since over 200,000 people die of pneumonia every year in China- that is a huge field of noise to detect COVID-19 linked pneumonia.
In short, the first few thousand deaths worldwide were almost surely overlooked because pneumonia is so common that no one thought to look for a specific and novel cause.
Think about it like finding a termite husk near an outlet, and then opening that part of the wall of your house and finding a stud eaten through with termites. Your first thought shouldn't be that this is the only stud infested, and that you are lucky you found it when you did. Your first thought should be, "Geez, I will be very lucky to not find them everywhere."
Yancey, if there was some uptick in teh number of people checking into hospitals and tested for all known viruses to cause the symptoms and coming up empty, I would give your opinion more credence. I have a close friend who manages a hospital lab, he has a patient like this now. But it is not something he has been seeing in the past.
I dont follow it had different characteristics to other corona viruses
"It would be a staggering stroke of luck for these to be the first such cases in Wuhan itself since over 200,000 people die of pneumonia every year in China- that is a huge field of noise to detect COVID-19 linked pneumonia.”
Or they could have been fucking around with the Coronavirus in a lab with CRISPR and the virus broke containment. Before you dismiss this theory, maybe you should read this article about the Wuhan lab from 2018.
https://cosmosmagazine.com/biology/switched-on-bats-hosting-viruses-is-a-cost-of-flying
" dont follow it had different characteristics to other corona viruses”
Like snipets of DNA from the HIV virus, you mean?
narciso said...Amazon is down 8%, what explains this
I recently discovered that Ebay is a much better place to shop online. The once egregious "shipping charges" have been addressed. 9 out of my last 10 online purchase have been on Ebay and not Amazon. Ebay is better at finding like-new & hard to find and one-of-a-kind stuff.
Novel influenza strains manage to infect about 1/4 to 3/4 of the US population in about a year or two, and the claim is that COVID-19 is as infectious or more so than that. If that is true, then being off by even a month of the first case means that the virus was in the US a month earlier than we believed, and probably spread to at least a million people in that extra month. If the first case arrived here in November, then a magnitude greater.
I suggested a few days ago that if you had a reliable test, you should probably randomly sample people across the country- it would be one way to establish how many people had it at that the time of the tests. We haven't done this- the tests have been reserved for people who might have had contact with someone who had contact with someone in the recognized hot spots. This both limits the numbers of confirmed cases, and also generates both false security in the lower numbers of "confirmed" infected, but also generates false panic about the mortality.
E bay is also down 5%, tell me this isnt unreasoning fear.
If you took a few days to do 10,000 random tests across the US, you might have a better idea what you are up against- is it 10,000 infected, 100,000, a million, 10 million. What you do is different for each of those numbers, surely.
"I suggested a few days ago that if you had a reliable test...”
Stop there because it seems like we don’t.
'but also generates false panic about the mortality.’
OR.... Or the tests, as I linked above, have a large number of false positives which lead to a false sense that the disease more benign than it really is.
Something a little more upbeat ---
"Si jamais j'oublie" (If Someday I Forget)
-- Zaz (again)
Remind me what day and year we are in today
Remind me about all the time that has passed
And if I have forgotten about all that
Only you can bring me back to life
And if someday I feel like getting away
Lock me up and throw the key
Inject me a booster shot
And make me remember my name
If someday I forget about all our nights
About the song of the guitar and all our screams
Remind me who I am
And why am I feeling so full of life right now
If someday I forget how to run away
And yet, if I still manage to do it somehow
Remind me who I am
And whatever I have promised to myself
Remind me about all my craziest dreams
Remind me about all the tears on my cheeks
And whether I have forgotten
How much I used to love to sing
If someday I forget about all our nights
About the song of the guitar and all our screams
Remind me who I am
And why am I feeling so full of life right now
If someday I forget how to run away
And yet, if I still manage to do it somehow
Remind me who I am
And whatever I have promised to myself
Remind me who I am
Did Wuhan secure the world record for potluck?..
Also see my link re the tight economic connection between Itally and Wuhan. Another odd coincidence to be ignored?
We need to cancel the April 15 tax day. We don't want a lot of sick people licking their envelopes and sending them to the IRS, do we?
Who am I kidding, the IRS never closes.
As for the stock market, I allocated another 5% of my cash in my IRAs to selected stocks I would like to own until I die. If tomorrow is another 2000 point decline, I will allocate another 5%. I intend to keep doing this until I reach at least a 60% allocation to stocks, but I might go further if the Dow goes under 10k, which is entirely possible in this crazy world we live in.
Well, the false positives work both ways, Aunty Trump- we would then also be less certain that the deaths were caused by COVID-19.
What has been a killer is that bonds went down in value at the same time that stocks did. I was doing fine limiting the bleeding until that fresh hell surfaced.
Yes what explains that,
A little more Latin flavor --
Qué vendrá
It doesn't really matter where I'm going
As long as I dare
To hold the other's hand
To love the time that passes
In everything I do
Rage and love embrace each other
Be it mine or be it yours
Life goes beyond us
What will come, what will come
I write my path
Without thinking, without thinking
Where it's going to end
"Well, the false positives work both ways, Aunty Trump- we would then also be less certain that the deaths were caused by COVID-19.”
Maybe, but if I grant you that, it just contributes more to a false sense of security.
Yancey Ward wrote: As for the stock market, I allocated another 5% of my cash in my IRAs to selected stocks I would like to own until I die. If tomorrow is another 2000 point decline, I will allocate another 5%. I intend to keep doing this until I reach at least a 60% allocation to stocks, but I might go further if the Dow goes under 10k, which is entirely possible in this crazy world we live in.
Ah yes, the advantages of youth.
You will do well Yancy, unless ... you know what. Then again, at worst you will do OK with that frame of mind.
No advantage of youth, Francisco- as I explained, it was a just a stroke of luck that I got to do this. For all the criticism I have leveled at Obamacare over the years, the very fact that I took the insurance in December required me to roll over the 401K into an IRA so that I could take a penalty free distribution that got my income just above poverty level. If I hadn't done that, I would have been partially in stocks during this entire decline- as it was, I was in a bond fund since early February until this past Monday.
So, I guess, thank you, Obamacare.
Last one. Some more Latin --
Malagueña
On the Flamenco guitar. And, yes, that is the Cuchi-Cuchi girl.
"Yes what explains that,”
In the absence of obvious catalysts for rising yields on Wednesday, some traders and analysts pointed to the lack of liquidity in the bond market and suggested some investors could be closing out their positions, and selling any Treasurys they held.
“Cash is king!” Everybody wants out of everything so bond issuers have to sweeten the offer.
That’s only my guess.
It’s the same with the US dollar. People are seeking safety so the dollar goes up, even though it would be better for the US if it were lower. It’s desperation.
If you can't see our heart you must be blind.
It is only a false sense of security if the security is false. I am saying we really don't know, but it is likely not be doomsday, or anything resembling it.
"I am saying we really don't know, but it is likely not be doomsday, “
You are saying it without evidence. But if it makes you feel better, great. I think that teh epidemic started in Wuhan China, spread to Italy through close economic ties with the Chinese specifically in Wuhan, and Iran, which is closely allied with China as well.
I have a lot of evidence that it started in Wuhan and that it is a deadly menace, you have a feeling that it isn’t.
OK, one more. Same piece. Same artist, but from just a couple years ago.
https://youtu.be/MFikSfN-eEk
She can still kill it at 67.
Also I don’t think that you can just look at charts and figure that the past always repeats itself. The world is going to be a different place when this is over, and the economy is going to be quite different. We will be decoupling from China and that is going to ripple everywhere.
It's not Andy Williams "Born Free," but I like it.
I LOVED that movie when I was a little kid.
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