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३१८ टिप्पण्या:
318 पैकी 1 – 200 नवीन› नवीनतम»This is better timing. I went to bed early last night and missed the cafe post until the morning.
Good evening, all.
The original projections of 500,000 dead in England is down to 20,009. The scientist who built a mathematical model now says he was on by 25x. So the worst case scenarios were unrealistic.
That's good news. Act like it, everybody.
If you haven't read it yet, I recommend Walter Russell Mead's most recent column on Trump and populism in the WSJ. He gets it.
Quote, with apologies to Althouse and y'all for length, just in case you don't have access:
"That a majority of the electorate is this deeply alienated from the establishment can’t be dismissed as bigotry and ignorance. There are solid and serious grounds for doubting the competence and wisdom of America’s self-proclaimed expert class. What is so intelligent and enlightened, populists ask, about a foreign-policy establishment that failed to perceive that U.S. trade
policies were promoting the rise of a hostile Communist superpower with the ability to disrupt supplies of essential goods in a national emergency? What competence have the military and political establishments shown in almost two decades of tactical success and strategic impotence in Afghanistan? What came of that intervention in Libya? What was the net result of all the fine talk in the Bush and Obama administrations about building democracy in the Middle East?
On domestic policy, the criticism is equally trenchant and deeply felt. Many voters believe that the U.S. establishment has produced a health-care system that is neither affordable nor universal. Higher education saddles students with increasing debt while leaving many graduates woefully unprepared for good jobs in the real world. The centrist establishment has amassed unprecedented deficits without keeping roads, bridges and pipes in good repair. It has weighed down cities and states with unmanageable levels of pension debt . . .
The blame game playing out over how the president has handled the coronavirus epidemic reflects the dynamics of this struggle . . . However, Mr. Trump’s supporters are not comparing him with an omniscient leader who always does the right thing, but with the establishment— including the bulk of the mainstream media—that largely backed a policy of engagement with China long after its pitfalls became clear. For Americans who lost their jobs to Chinese competition or who fear the possibility of a new cold war against an economically potent and technologically advanced power, Mr. Trump’s errors pale before those of the bipartisan American foreign-policy consensus.
The establishment’s massive, decadeslong failure to think through the consequences of empowering Communist China and creating a trading relationship that, among other things, left the U.S. dependent on Beijing for pharmaceuticals is a much less excusable and more consequential error than anything Donald Trump has done in 2020—and it has a direct bearing on the mess we are in."
Joe Biden, just yesterday speaking about virus policies:
“I’m going to, Barack, significantly increase the number of pell grants that are out there. A pell grant is a family basically less than $50,000 you’re able to get at the time, it was less than six but it raised it to $6000.”
When he is removed from the race the good news is he will never know it.
Birkel is distorting again. Ferguson said that *under the new policy* his computer model estimate is way down, to 20k dead. He has not repudiated his original estimate. In short he has said two things. Do nothing, 500k. Follow the new policy 20k. Good news.
Bill Ackman is making a solid bid for worst person in the world.
Hedge fund boss Bill Ackman makes $2.6BILLION by betting AGAINST the markets just days after stoking fears by giving emotional interview warning 'hell was coming' and begging Trump to shut down country over coronavirus pandemic
WR Mead's been on this for years--Trump the Jacksonian, and the brahmins and wannabe brahmins clutch their pearls.
It's actually not a bad framework.
Narr
Even Political Scientists get it right sometime
That's good news. Act like it, everybody.
The news will take a while to reach the bureaucracy and many more months for it to sink in.
If the worst case projections turn out to be unfounded and wrong I will simply move on. There is no need to belittle and call out the people that turn out to have overreacted, it is sufficient to just be happy and enjoy that they were wrong.
Tom Cotton, conservative
Not much going on here - the streets are much safer for biking now, so I do a lot of that. Golf courses are still open, with extra precautions. I bought a pistol, had to travel to the west side to pick it up. The freeways are like Sunday morning, all day any day, so it was an easy journey. Cabela's is a giant, cavernous emporium of outdoors stuff. They allow 50 people in at a time. You might as well say it was "empty," because 50 people don't take up a fraction of a percent of the floor space. I was in and out in a jiffy because I went early, during Old Coot hour. Why we oldsters with time on our hands should get priority over working people or harried parents makes no sense to me. They should reserve early morning grocery store hours for people with jobs and/or children. But we are all getting along, and the neighbors have a sharp eye out for the scamsters who offer "free room sanitizing" in order to case your house for future activities.
It's America. We're resilient. I hope we bounce back quickly, but I have no idea what will happen, no more than the 'experts' or pols who pontificate but know little of value. I hope our kids don't have to live through another Great Depression. At least we're not Venezuela, so people still walk their pets instead of cooking them.
For those who want some really good, practical advice about protecting yourself and your family from Covid 19 from a level headed doctor functioning at the epicenter, this video is terrific. I think the doctor made it for his own family.
https://vimeo.com/399733860
Scotty in love is always painfully awkward.
Still want to know why every family member living with a dead wuhan victim is also not dead.
Pretty skimp info on multiple serious illness in same residences.
Any alarmists have links to multiple dead families? We already have seen the one particular, several times.
I am in Santa Clara county and have yet to see two or more people dead in same home.
Maybe media/govt keeping it a secret to avoid panic?
Obligatory shopping anecdote. Walmart, light crowd, full meat and veggies no beans,low on rice, no paper products.
stevew said...
If the worst case projections turn out to be unfounded
Some initial forecasts were based on doing nothing, which at least in the UK and here was pretty close to the truth at the time. Obviously we aren't doing nothing now and the more recent forecasts reflect that. The lack of adequate testing is what is making this such a difficult problem to predict and control. South Korea did an amazing job, given how little lead time they had, but they had better data to work with.
So anybody catch the news that Biden finger raped a young staffer? Turns out she immediately reported it.
Can we say credibly accused rapist?
Can we say #BelieveAllWoman?
Really awkward when it involves the murder of Landru's wife.
SteveW -- you doing ok? Has your quarantine time ended?
I guess they decided Trump was going to be elected, so might as well Say Uncle.
Oh, GAWD, Harry and Markle moving to USA – in spite of promise to never move here as long as Trump was President
Tom Cotton is wrong.
The hospital systems are not overwhelmed.
Dr Birx said that in today's news conference.
The projections for seriousness of the disease were also wrong.
Let's not step over that little fact.
Redjac, Redjac, Redjac.
Aha, ha, ha, ha, ha.
Too much truculence in the comments now. Guess people's nerves are frayed. Time to take a break, I guess.:-(
This is the predictions by a range of experts compiled by 538. Quite bleak but a huge amount of uncertainty. Perhaps the bleakest prediction is that hospitalizations won't peak until May.
"If the worst case projections turn out to be unfounded and wrong I will simply move on. There is no need to belittle and call out the people that turn out to have overreacted, it is sufficient to just be happy and enjoy that they were wrong."
Wish I could say the same. I'm afraid it won't even take worst case projections for me to call out the people that turn out to have underreacted. If just the bad case projections come to pass, I'll be resentful. I'm not a forgiving person. I leave that to Jesus. I've learned to accept unjust injury in life but I've also learned to seek just revenge and equalization.
Ferguson credited the U.K.’s lockdown for stopping the spread of the virus, but as Berenson points out, the country “only began its lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/imperial-college-scientist-who-predicted-500k-coronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less
------------------------------
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7.pdf
But the article requires people to take China's stats seriously.
That's a bridge too far.
It's perfectly reasonable to try and prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed, even though in most areas they aren't.
The way to do it is to keep the people at risk out.
The way to do that is to rigorously quarantine them.
The other way to do that is, as David Price says in the video linked above, not to touch your face.
So: old people, stay home; sick people, stay home; everybody else, keep some distance and don't touch your face -- but go back to work, so that the whole country doesn't get "overwhelmed."
Many will be dead, but italys demographics are different enough that i dont think it will recur, how nyc does seem tp have made many of the same mistakesm
So anybody catch the news that Biden finger raped a young staffer? Turns out she immediately reported it.
Can we say credibly accused rapist?
Can we say #BelieveAllWoman?
This will be the perfect excuse for the MSM to deep-six Joe when it dawns on them he is no longer a viable candidate.
But until then, mums the word!
I'm not talking about 11 million. I'm talking about if it turns out we could've kept it at 40,000 (a HELL of a lot) but we chose not to. And it gets to, say, 200,000.
Is the underreaction going to count when wealth has been destroyed and that leads to more deaths?
Or should we imagine them at the bad economic times under Obama (more suicides) and good economic times (Trump) affect the number of suicides?
Do those deaths matter too?
How will we balance the costs and the benefits?
Too much truculence
Beratis, Kesla, Redjac. That's just the way it is. From London to Kiev to the Martian Colonies to beyond.
But whoever he is, he sure talks gloomy.
On babylon 5 there was an episode where someone meeting the description of the ripper was conducting a trial by ordeal on delenn.
I take the under on 40k.
It feeds on fear.
>>If the worst case projections turn out to be unfounded and wrong I will simply move on. There is no need to belittle and call out the people that turn out to have overreacted, it is sufficient to just be happy and enjoy that they were wrong.
I disagree. There is a need to call out those making worst case projections. And to remind everyone else to ignore their predictions from now on.
They were feeding panic, and they were not, as our hostess reminded us, helping.
Im skeptical because this lockdown serves the purposes of the prog agenda scarcity, deprivation of liberty, minimal economic activity. Have i become that cynical, events have made me.
I'm talking about if it turns out we could've kept it at 40,000 (a HELL of a lot) but we chose not to. And it gets to, say, 200,000
That would be very tragic. Truly it would be. Yet . . . perspective.
Since the beginning of this month, 200,000 people have already died in the United States. This month alone. Of other causes.
Every one of those deaths was a tragedy.
Yes, be careful. Yes, be safe. Yes, let us do what we can to limit the carnage. And, yes, putting things in their proper perspective can help us not to overly freak and despair.
And that would be excess deaths. In other words, we know the long-term trends of how many Americans will die in a given year. Dying from one thing versus another when death was (and is) the inevitable result cannot be used to mark how bad something was (and is).
I propose a new metric: the STFU - Seasonal Typical Flu Units
So, if 50K usually die during a typical flu season, and 200K die from corona, then corona will be 4.0 STFU's.
After all the sheltering and countermeasures, and SWAG'ing the impact of vaccines, readily available testing and abundant masks, sanitizer, and toilet paper that will likely be available by the fall - my guess (guess!) is:
About 3 STFU's for corona.
"The projections for seriousness of the disease were also wrong."
No they weren't. There are new projections. That's all. The earlier projections weren't wrong and they weren't right. What matters isn't what the projections were or are. What matters is what will be, in 6 months, in 12 months. We'll just have to wait and see.
Meade
Great posts.
Things the covidiots under-estimate:
- the economic damage of millions sick
- the lung damage we see in survivors
- the chance of civil unrest
- the numbers of old people
- the resilience of our free market economy
- American inventiveness
DanTheMan said...
There is a need to call out those making worst case projections.
Look at the 538 prediction compilation. It is very difficult to make predictions with such limited information. The uncertainties in each and every prediction should be better emphasized and the fact that this isn't done routinely gives a false impression of certainty. But you are setting an unreasonable standard, under the circumstances.
Members of the Coronavirus Task Force Hold a Press Briefing - 20200326
The social contagion precedes the pathogen.
I've said a thousand times before to people in other contexts --
Hope for the best; prepare for the worst.
Meade said...
I'm not a forgiving person. I leave that to Jesus.
Oh!
I'm perhaps more forgiving - except that some of the charlatans (Exhibit A: We’re All Going To Die. . . Or Not) should die a horrible and painful death.
Listen to Dr. Brix.
I don't speed; I move with traffic in the lane I occupy.
I take all ten days of a prescription; I complete my PT regimen.
I do not perform "California rolls" when making right hand turns against red lights or stop signs.
I believe most of the guidelines we receive are valid.
However, I also believe most of the gains from social distancing - which I also follow - could have been gained without crashing the economy.
Meade,
They were best guesses on incomplete information that deviated substantially from real world, observed results.
Shorthand: wrong.
Blogger stevew said...
If the worst case projections turn out to be unfounded and wrong I will simply move on. There is no need to belittle and call out the people that turn out to have overreacted, it is sufficient to just be happy and enjoy that they were wrong
I am guess you are not a small business owner or an unemployed waitress. I guess callouts are for unacknowledged white privilege, mansplaining, and use of the wrong personal pronouns.
Sebastian's lengthy quote from Walter Russell Mead's Thursday column in the Wall Street Journal is good--but it doesn't do the column full justice.
Mead is a member of the East Coast establishment. He was a Bishop's son (Episcopal I think) who got a scholarship to Groton (you can't get a more establishment prep school than that--I think it was FDR's alma mater) then on to an Ivy League education. He's basically arguing that the centrist establishment has screwed up so badly that they are in real trouble--and likely to stay that way.
He count's Bernie's supporters, and Trump supporters as together making up somewhere between 55 and 60 percent of the electorate who have little use anymore for the "liberal centrist establishment". They want a wrecking ball put to the existing structure. I think he's right--and the whole column (unfortunately behind a paywall) is worth a read.
And ad hominems don't help.
They haven't helped.
What would help is if the insults against the persons of others -- as opposed to responding merely to ideas -- stopped.
"liberal centrist establishment".
Liberal is not centrist. It is left of center, progressing, diverging leftward.
" And, yes, putting things in their proper perspective can help us not to overly freak and despair."
The panic and "over freak" is not coming from those committed to stopping the spread. It's coming from those willing to accept 200,000 premature deaths of innocent Americans as the price we must pay not to have economic recession.
There is a time to panic and hyperventilate.
When you are on Omaha Beach is not that time.
What matters is what will be, in 6 months, in 12 months
Certainly, neither planned parenthood nor planned parent, all lives matter. That said, what matters are the projections today, because they influence, if not determine, mitigation and treatment strategy and actions, which may improve viability or cause collateral damage.
The panic and "over freak" is not coming from . . . It's coming from . . .
Finger-pointing doesn't help either.
"And it gets to, say, 200,000."
Yes, bad.
But it's good to see "bad" is now down from 11M and 1M to something on the order of normal flu + pneumonia + respiratory disease (57K + 155K in 2015).
Does the bad result have to be excess deaths or do we subtract people who would have died anyway?
How many excess deaths would need to be prevented to justify the multi-trillion dollar hit to the economy?
If an ordinary QALY is worth about 100K in medical expenditures, and we prevent 200K net Wuhan deaths with shutdowns, and we take the $2T deal as a minimum payment, then the current expenditures exceed normal financial support for saving lives by orders of magnitude, even if we assume that each death prevented entails many QALYs saved.
FYI: The 3/16 study Ferguson led:
Impact of non - pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID - 19 mortality and healthcare demand
Really, the choices are flatline the economy for an indeterminate period or millions will die, hanging that sword of damocles over us.
And it has created scarcity, anxiety and opportunities for progressives to 'not let a crisis go to waste' while not really addressing the problem at hand.
Overly, Freek, and De Sparre would be a good name for a law firm.
My wife watched a video today done by a doctor in Michigan, in which he carefully demonstrated how to clean and disinfect the everlovin hell out of eveything you bring in the house.
OK, great. First, leave everything you buy in the garage or outside for three days. Then, thoroughly disinfect every item--every item--because it has been touched by human hands.
Do not allow people into your home, even the delivery service.
Prepare to sort and disinfect your groceries (after 72 hours!) on a carefully cleaned surface separate from the bad surface that has been touched by things that were touched by humans.
I gave up but it went on for a while.
Some biddy complained on the neighborhood email/FB group that some of her neighbors appear to be visiting one another at home! Can you imagine? Visiting one another!
Narr
I hope someone coughs on her
200,000 is the number now?
If we had not shut down the country that's the unprovable number?
Cool.
You won't be wrong.
“ The panic and "over freak" is not coming from those committed to stopping the spread. It's coming from those willing to accept 200,000 premature deaths of innocent Americans as the price we must pay not to have economic recession.”
And to risk so much more. And to do it without even seriously thinking about it, most of them.
About that panic and freak. Right now the plan is for government to help businesses keep from liquidating, and people from losing their homes. It will cost us, but the economy can more or less pick back up where it was. The plants, stores, factories, homes and businesses will still exist. It can work as long as it isn’t too drawn out. The danger is chaos.
Contrast a month of pandemonium as tens of millions get sick and stay sick at the same time.
And before people accuse others of calling for or wanting X, instead of simply presuming the worst of others, why not wait for them to actually say they want X?
From what I've read here the last few weeks, no one has called for X.
Who say its a month, or three:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17109-first-analysis-of-swine-flu-spread-supports-pandemic-plan/
If I mean X, I will say X.
Simply presume that people say what they mean, and mean what they say -- and only what they say.
Some initial forecasts were based on doing nothing, which at least in the UK and here was pretty close to the truth at the time.
Assuming no action taken when formulating a model serves what purpose? Of course the people making the models have no skin in the game and and a narrative to set.
Of course if President Trump says that he has a target of Easter to get back to work, he's just working his model. He gets to declare the variables and make the predictions. With just as much accuracy as any model maker.
My wife watched a video today done by a doctor in Michigan, in which he carefully demonstrated how to clean and disinfect the everlovin hell out of everything you bring in the house.
The Michigan governor (D) is now threatening to prosecute doctors and Pharmacists who give patients hydoxychloroquine .
Does ARM live in Michigan?
Posted on Facebook in response to Trump's wanting to reopen the country on Easter...
"Idiots. In two weeks the shit is gonna look so ugly nobody will say such a thing, and we can remind them what they said today."
"i hate to say it, but i’m counting on this."
bioweapon? It's more likely to have been a vaccine that was prematurely released into the wild. An insufficiently attenuated virus that spread before the makers could mitigate its progress.
we cannot ever go back to work. There are viruses.
"...the economy can more or less pick back up where it was."
I await the historical analogue that provides such faith.
Meade
Notice how your hypothetical, meant to illustrate the kind of unconcern you find troubling, has been turned into “the number now”, the new projected cost of their error. Not close to what you said or meant. That's rank intellectual dishonesty. But it’s SOP for this crew.
n.n. ..... that is a thousand times more likely than bioweapon, but a few months ago, who knew?
For those who prefer it: The dreaded back and forth
Of course if President Trump says that he has a target of Easter to get back to work, he's just working his model.
Having followed this, and all the mischaracterizations of it, I've yet to see or hear Trump saying that he has a target of Easter for reopening.
What he HAS said is that he HOPES to be able to reopen by Easter.
There is a difference.
And I should think that, if we could, we all would like the suffering to end as quickly as possible. Who really would want to prolong it??
Robert VerBruggen said ...
A narrative rocketed around social media earlier today: An Imperial College study said that COVID-19 could kill 500,000 Brits, but in recent testimony, Neil Ferguson, the head of the group behind the study, put the number below 20,000. Clearly the lying alarmist was walking back his ridiculous predictions!
Well, no. The paper actually offered simulations of numerous scenarios. The one resulting in 500,000 deaths was one where Great Britain just carried on life as before. Other scenarios, where the country locked down whenever it was necessary to stop the disease’s spread, put death totals below 20,000. (See the rightmost death columns of Tables 4 and 5.)
Since the paper came out, Great Britain has adopted a strategy of aggressively containing the virus and expanded its intensive-care capacity, so a prediction of a much lower death toll and less stress on ICUs hardly seems surprising.
But it’s SOP for this crew.
Why are you here with us?
Fellow commenters are not the enemy Ken B.
Stop being so obsessed about them.
Considering the post doxed someone so doubleubplusgood to offer hope, im sure this person will be memory holed fron the consequences of his words
Coop,
Even sibs are going to reach their limit of batvocacy in these times.
Sorry to hear of batfall in Israel.
Neil Ferguson said ..
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Again with the stalin fanboi, was his prediction right were told 60 million swine flu was just fine, now.
Birkel
Any strike or lockout in any company town. Any town flooded and shut down for repairs. Any seasonal fishery, like much of Maine or Newfoundland. Actually, Newfoundland itself, which after the fisheries were subjected to long blackouts and quotas received federal aid for years, and came back.
But America isn’t up to challenge you tell us.
And here is where I, called a Trumpist all these years, could take the strategies that when Trump stops the virus from killing nearl so many as projected that it will help his re-election chances. Odd that such an obvious move is neglected.
Correct!
I am not taking that option because I believe the economic welfare of people is tied directly to health outcomes.
The United States is prepared for mitigating this disease because we are wealthy.
The ROW is better prepared because the US exports know-how and medicines .
I think the long-term consequences of decreasing wealth is a worse outcome for America and Americans than the short-term political interests of anybody.
ARM
Thank for that quote, completely vindicating what I said, and what Meade said. And proving Birkel is either too lazy to check or too dishonest to be trusted. Narcisco too.
"200,000 is the number now?"
Not necessarily It's a number. We will have to wait to see what the number turns out to be. Just as we'll only know if we were, as you say, "crashing the economy" by fully executing 15 days to slow the spread.
Interesting schism among us Trump voters.
What we need are accurate diagnostics, including antibody tests, to understand the excess deaths, to stop conflating diseases and conditions, to design an effective treatment strategy, to mitigate collateral damage, and curb the progress of the social contagion. This event bears all the features of [catastrophic] [anthropogenic] climate cooling... warming... change, and reproductive rites, too.
Its not one town one province one country, its most of the planet, and they cant tell us the interval or what point to restart the machinery of every day life.
“distorting again. Ferguson said that *under the new policy* his computer model estimate is way down, to 20k dead. He has not repudiated his original estimate. In short he has said two things. Do nothing, 500k. Follow the new policy 20k. Good news. “
So the fatality rate in the population of the UK has dropped from 0.75% to 0.03%, a large reduction, 25 times lower, someone claims this is only due to a change in policy. I don’t get this at all. The expert validated situation is that almost everyone will eventually get the disease and the only thing policy can do is reduce the surge of the infected to prevent overloading hospitals. So we are claiming that 500,000 - 20,000 = 480,000 people will be saved from death (1 in every 135 people in the UK) by having a bed available instead of being denied treatment. This seems unlikely. I think the recalculation is based on further refinement of the fatality rate. Modelers face this all the time. New input data affects prediction. This can’t be based on creating a new vaccine because that would be pure speculation.
Town of a few hundred thousand =\= the $22 trillion US economy
Nobody backstops the United States. That was particularly weak.
How about: Puerto Rico.
Or the parts of the US still under repair from Hurricane Sandy?
But will there be fire and rescue from all over the country to ride to Houston's rescue?
Wither the Cajun Navy?
The part of the economy we would lose is equivalent to all of Japan's yearly economy plus a little, if we do not reopen.
And Japan has had a Lost Decade since 1989.
Scott Gottlieb, MD said ...
I’m worried about emerging situations in New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, among others. In China no province outside Hubei ever had more than 1,500 cases. In U.S. 11 states already hit that total. Our epidemic is likely to be national in scope.
What's it to you what Birkel or Narcisco say or do?
Who are they to you? Other than an excuse to attack others.
How does that help anything?
We werent going to do nothing, but feegusoms projections, strongly tilted policy to the extreme limit possible.
Josephbleau
Read the quote from Ferguson ARM posted above. It is quite admirably clear.
GDP we are preparing to lose:
Two point five times the entire economy of the continent of Africa.
One point five times the economy of Germany.
Let's just crank 'er up and get back to gettin' or something.
Today I discovered that I am prone to exponentially bad reactions to even slight contact with glochnids.
Watch out for those ornamental plants that pleasantly remind you of Krazy Kat landscapes!
Fergusons projections, so what if hes wrong by a factor of 10.
Mark
I think you have the direction of attack wrong. Birkel spent weeks posting “Ken B is a liar”, calling me a cunt and so on. I’m a bit Trumpy: I hit back.
"In China no province outside Hubei ever had more than 1,500 cases."
According to?
"Meade said...
"The panic and 'over freak' is . . .coming from those willing to accept 200,000 premature deaths of innocent Americans as the price we must pay not to have economic recession."
Okay, let's say I agree with that. Then first question: What is the greatest number of premature deaths that we should accept? If you said even one death is a tragedy, so we shouldn't accept even one premature death to save the economy, you'd be irrational. If 200,000 isn't the number, what's the number?
Second question: What makes you think our data are good enough to believe we have any idea of how many premature deaths we'd actually be risking?
We're dealing with too many unknowns here for anybody to say anyone else is over-freaking.
To be fair, you did lie about what I didn't post.
OpenID,
I disagree slightly. The number of desks the United States is likely to see in any given year is relatively easy to predict (within bands). So we should know excess deaths this year, assuming no other major factors interfere - like a drastic economic downturn.
I see that the 20,000 death issue has been further discussed with quotes from the modeler. I guess I will wait and see how this policy creates 480,000 survivors who would have died otherwise.
A few days ago it was, for me at least, unthinkable that we would ever exceed Italy in number of cases. While I still think that our country will be fine and that the economy will bounce back reasonably well. I do think we face a bigger problem than seemed to be the case even just a few days ago. The people making predictions are performing a valuable but difficult service, they are trying to make possible outcomes more concrete so that the unthinkable becomes a bit more thinkable for rest of us.
Trump can claim, like Obama did with jobs, to have saved or created 10,800,005 lives when this is over.
(He does have five children, right?)
Most tests.
Most positives.
Like magic!!
Right, in a just word, they would chase diblasio and cuomo with sticks, have then scurry under rocks, what happened to the mayor of florence after enabling the spread?
And garcetti considering there was a cholers epidemic not that long ago in the city of angels, what are the odds they will handle things well over there.
walter said...
According to?
The Chinese, and I agree there is reasons for skepticism. But, a large outbreak in China would be impossible to hide. The Chinese are one of the most hypochondriacal races, if there was any evidence that their area was experiencing an outbreak they would immediately change their behavior in ways that would be obvious to even to a casual observer.
Italy has 60 mill pop, USA 327.
"The Michigan governor (D) is now threatening to prosecute doctors and Pharmacists who give patients hydoxychloroquine "
What the hell is this about?
Narciso that's in a "just world". And De Blasio is low enough that he could slither under a rock like a little blue fence lizard. Cuomo might need a gopher burrow.
Impossible to hide over what time frame?
Like the Holodomor?
Where is the NYT when China needs it?
Walter Duranty, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you... woo woo woo.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
A few days ago it was, for me at least, unthinkable that we would ever exceed Italy in number of cases.
S**t, you aren't an idiot are you ARM? Of course our "cases" were going to exceed Italy - our population is 5X the population of Italy and frankly, # of cases is irrelevant.
Fatality per capita is the only metric that matters. I live in Ground Zero (close to WA nursing home) and we aren't close to Italy stats. The curve is flattening here.
I swear, libs look for the worst possible spin instead of the optimistic.
ARM:
Scott Gottlieb, MD said ...
I’m worried about emerging situations in New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, among others. In China no province outside Hubei ever had more than 1,500 cases."
The communist Chinese govt is lying.
Courageous Chinese doctors, nurses and citizens are fighting to get the truth out that the Chinese authorities are turning patients away from hospitals to keep their numbers low and they are imprisoning citizens and journalists who dare tell the truth.
And ARM and the dems are supporting the ChiCom propaganda campaign all the way.
All. The. Way.
Its a shame those real heroes have been utterly abandoned and cast aside to make way for more dem talking points
"Scotty in love is always painfully awkward."
Oh, I don't know.... Have you read
this? Maybe it's a cheap trick to tell your story in reverse, but I still get a little misty whenever I think of this one.
"The Chinese are one of the most hypochondriacal races,"
ARM,
You are canceled.
I don’t think anyone can trust a single Chinese government number or a single Chinese government claim.
Ken B: "I don’t think anyone can trust a single Chinese government number or a single Chinese government claim."
ARM has been pushing every single ChiCom virus lie for months.
And happily.
Nay, gleefully.
Kathryn51 said...
Of course our "cases" were going to exceed Italy
This was not a given. We had much more time to prepare and had the model of Italy to guide us on what did and didn't work and the model of South Korea on what worked well. Absolutely not inevitable. Quite evitable actually.
Original Mike: "What the hell is this about?"
The death tally isnt high enough yet for campaign purposes.
walter said...
You are canceled.
Is hypochondria a bad thing? Seems to be working out pretty well for the Chinese, Koreans and Japanese.
ARM: "Is hypochondria a bad thing? Seems to be working out pretty well for the Chinese,..."
The communists are lying.
Ken B said...
I don’t think anyone can trust a single Chinese government number or a single Chinese government claim.
Hey you addict a few million people to opiates and now they don't trust you. WTF?
I don' t trust much of what they say anyways, but. . . .
Ken B said...
I don’t think anyone can trust a single Chinese government number or a single Chinese government claim.
A large outbreak in other regions of China would be reasonably easy for our intelligence services to detect. I agree that the absolute numbers the Chinese are providing are likely to be nonsense.
Drago,
There are no enemies to ARM's Left.
Double down on it ARM.
It's a good look for ya.
What was the butchers bill between 1949 and 1972,20 40 60 million, and these were there own people, how would they regard thosr that imposed the century of humiliation in their eyes.
Does a governor have the authority to criminalize physician prescriptions? I sure hope not.
The intelligence agencies whose contacts got rolled up under Obama?
Or the intelligence agencies that tell what they know in public to burn current sources?
Dude, stop it.
"Fatality per capita is the only metric that matters."
Excess fatality -- i.e., the number of affected people who would not have died otherwise.
Considering that many fatalities occur among seniors with pre-existing conditions, even better is: excess QALYs lost.
Of course, this should also take into account the mitigating effect of basic distancing on ordinary flu and pneumonia, just for a clear year-to-year comparison.
How many double agents have we found in our govt in the last few years
ARM: "A large outbreak in other regions of China would be reasonably easy for our intelligence services to detect."
The intel services that missed the fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS, that told us there was an active nuclear program in Iraq, that missed Khomeini's return after the fall of the Shah, etc.
They are right on the ball.
narciso: "How many double agents have we found in our govt in the last few years"
Too many to count.
Half of DC is on the ChiCom lobbyist payroll and our feds let the ChiComs get away with hacking every single govt agency, including the personnel records of every US citizen with a security clearance.
Every. Single. One.
“A large outbreak in other regions of China would be reasonably easy for our intelligence services to detect. I agree that the absolute numbers the Chinese are providing are likely to be nonsense.“
Not with closed borders and the kind of total control they have.
Not so sure we should trust in the competence of the CIA either.
I meant those with allegiance to the guanbo, less ignore those with ties with cgn huawei xte for now.
It is genuinely funny for me to hear all you right wingers attacking the CIA and FBI. Please keep it up. You are fifty years late, but better late than never.
Must we always devolve into tribes? Now we have the Denialists and the Pants-shitters.
If you're not a Pants-shitter and are skeptical of the value of quarantining everyone like we all live in densely-packed urban areas, you are a Denialst who clearly wants 11 million people to die. Cue up Greta: You should be ashamed!
If you're not a Denialist and plan a course of action based on worse-case scenarios and based on what the experts are saying, you are a Pants-shitter clearly incapable of assessing risk or weighing the trade-offs of a police state and enforced hermit-like existence forever.
But I believe I know why there is no TP in the stores. Pants-shitters, fess up. You're hoarding the TP, aren't you? Because it takes a lot to clean out those soiled drawers, right?
The ChiComs ARM supports are able to keep an estimated million Uyghurs in slave labor camps and harvest their organs for fun and profit.
Easy to see why ARM enjoys carrying their water.
ARM: "It is genuinely funny for me to hear all you right wingers attacking the CIA and FBI."
Its probably even funnier to you when brave Chinese souls fight to get out the truth and then guys like you parrot the ChiCom line.
Drago said...
The ChiComs ARM supports are able to keep an estimated million Uyghurs in slave labor camps and harvest their organs for fun and profit.
How exactly do you know this? The CIA perhaps? Or one of the dozens of other intelligence agencies focused on China. You are so certain of this, which would be reasonably easy to hide, yet an outbreak of a fucking plague would be undetectable? Stupidity that knows no limits.
Unlike the fantasies of tds fan fiction, they kill or dissapear those who speak the truth in china
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
It is genuinely funny for me to hear all you right wingers attacking the CIA and FBI. Please keep it up. You are fifty years late, but better late than never.
--
ARM breathlesslya finds an upside/distraction from his idiotic comparison of Italy to US.
ARM: "How exactly do you know this? The CIA perhaps? Or one of the dozens of other intelligence agencies focused on China."
Nope. Those brave souls who fight to get the word out via other methods.
The same ones you crap on by being Xi's cuckholster.
I prefer this --
Now showing:
"Put the candle back!"
Here's a view from the trenches.
I'm a near-as-dammit to 65 yr old FedEx B767 Captain. Unless you want your supply chain to start breaking down, I have no choice but to mingle all over the damn place. (In the last month: Brazil, Puerto Rico, Indy, Mexico, Mexico, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Memphis, Boise and a few other places I can't remember.)
A good friend of mine, a B757 Captain at Delta, tells me they have cancelled 40% of April's schedule, and parked 600 airplanes.
He and I, who both make about $330/block hour, and are both married to our first wives, can take the income hit. Flight attendants, who make a tenth that? Mechanics? Baggage handlers? Gate agents? Drivers taking crews to and from layover hotels? Hotel staffs?
As it happens, the axe doesn't fall equitably. While Delta, and the other passenger carriers (320BusDriver is no doubt feeling the hit) are scything their schedules, the cargo carriers are adding to theirs due to displaced belly freight.
Our flight crew message board is inundated with layover hotels closing. A couple nights ago, my First Officer and I were the last people to leave the hotel in Toluca, Mexico before it was shut. The next day, in Querétaro, there was no place to eat except in the hotel.
From there to Memphis last night, through Houston and Dallas airspaces, the radio was nearly silent, save for cargo flights.
A great many pilots commute to their flights. If the passenger carriers stop flying because there are no passengers, then cargo pilots won't get to their flights, and all manner of things won't get to you.
Including about 36,000 pounds of masks — additional freight that ran us right to the runway limit — that I brought from Campinas, Brazil, a week ago.
So while I greatly respect Meade, he is both question begging, and posing a false dilemma:
The panic and "over freak" is not coming from those committed to stopping the spread. It's coming from those willing to accept 200,000 premature deaths of innocent Americans as the price we must pay not to have economic recession.
Question begging: 200,000 deaths. Those willing to accept that.
False dilemma: 200,000 deaths vice an economic recession.
There are millions of people getting shoved against the wall, getting rugs getting yanked from under them. At what cost to them? How many suicides? How much domestic violence?
What if it isn't as bad as all that?
(Side note: you think shaking hands is death defying? Southern Europeans, in particular the Italians, French, and Spanish dispense with that and go straight to cheek kissing. Both cheeks. Both sexes. Think that might leave a mark? [Cite: having lived in Europe for five years until several months ago.])
narciso: "Unlike the fantasies of tds fan fiction, they kill or dissapear those who speak the truth in china"
Careful now. ARM reacts poorly when either ChiCom or Iranian mullah lies are challenged.
As his comments earlier today and in the days prior demonstrate conclusively.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
This was not a given. We had much more time to prepare and had the model of Italy to guide us on what did and didn't work and the model of South Korea on what worked well. Absolutely not inevitable. Quite evitable actually.
Is't it interesting that left wing political activists know exactly what is and isn't possible even though the medical experts don't? Why it's almost like these people's evaluations are solely based on political considerations.
I find it odd that folks here ignore ACTUAL numbers, but almost gleefully accept all these bogus projections and extrapolated numbers.
Right now, as we speak, in our country of 330 Million people, the relevant number is 4 deaths per million. That's it.
Source: RCP
To compare, Italy is 136 deaths per million. Totally different clinical picture, 35X more deaths per capita. Absolutely criminally negligent and absurd to base US policy here on what's happening in Italy. I have repeatedly cited the Italian paper, Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons). The paper provides necessary medical context - Italy had 4 bad flu seasons causing 68,000 excess deaths, mostly old folks. This "new" epidemic is mostly just relabeling a serious persistent bad flu epidemic in Italy.
Ken B,
As opposed to slinging one-liners, please direct us to the pages of the study I linked to above that you think most important.
(It's a bit sad to have to ask for but..)
Don't know if I'm a "right winger". Prolly not. . . . . but a lot of people have been criticizing the value of CIA product for 30 years. That being the end of the Cold War, which was miserably "intelligence".
They've been pretty bad for a while.
"Give him the sedagive."
Where did Republican Mitch McConnell get his vast wealth from? Instead of lying about my views, why don't you deal with the actual problem? You are such a clueless pussy.
Jay Vogt: "Don't know if I'm a "right winger". Prolly not. . . . . but a lot of people have been criticizing the value of CIA product for 30 years. That being the end of the Cold War, which was miserably "intelligence".
They've been pretty bad for a while."
I can tell you from experience that way back in the 1980's Special Forces personnel would ONLY listen to former Special Forces members of the CIA and despised those Langley ivy league jerkwads.
Great post, @Hey Skipper! We hope you hang tough, as well as your blue collar support crew.
We need to hear from Hey Restauranteur, and Hey Hotelier next. Similar hardships based on faulty emotionally-skewed analysis.
I really do not understand why people would waste their time engaging ARM.
ARM: "Where did Republican Mitch McConnell get his vast wealth from?"
The vast majority was his wifes inheritance.
But I am open to any actual evidence you have.
Now do the Bidens.
And where did her money come from?
Raymond's Father: Errgghh.
Yes frank lloyd nut shouldnt be encouraged, like a nazgul that caused ud pain on another blog,
ARM: "You are such a clueless pussy."
Written by the Xi Cuckholster who jyst today was again pushing that transparently fake ChiCom "study" which claimed HC was only as effective as rest and fluids.
A hoax "study" that involved...wait for it...15 people total (supposedly)..in one location at just one time.
But that was enough for ARM to run with it.
Just today.
Who but a ChiCom Cuckholster would swallow that one?
I just like playing with numbers, not trying to criticize anyone. According to the NHS the UK has 6400 icu beds, 9.3 per 100,000 people. If all icu beds were available and not used for any treatment but coronavirus, for the “480,000 to be saved by reducing deaths from 500,000 to 20,000”, there would be 45 people per bed. For one week of treatment that would cycle thru the 480,000 people in a year. That is very aggressive and other folks would die of heart failure etc. as the beds are now pretty fully utilized with other diseases.
There must be some other factor of policy that is reducing deaths in the current 20,000 death estimate other than just flattening the curve of hospital use. I don’t know what this would be, are we now saying that if we isolate now we will not be infected after we are reintroduced into society without the current isolation? Did someone post a cite to the paper? Thanks.
Where did McConnell's money come from? It's such a simple question, and the answer makes so much so much clearer, yet you refuse to address it. What is the source of McConnell's wealth?
Oh, and there's this:
FedEx has something like 4400 pilots going all over hell and gone.
As of last week, 3 confirmed with CCP19.
I don't know where that fits on the anecdote-data spectrum.
Remember ARM, if you are not a clueless and easily fooled Xi cuckholster then you are a knowing and voluntary Xi cuckholster.
"Walk this way."
Jay Vogt said...
Don't know if I'm a "right winger". Prolly not.
If you didn't buy into the nonsense about Iraq weapons of mass destruction then probably not. Drago, of course, bought the whole story.
ARM: "What is the source of McConnell's wealth?"
If memory serves, his net worth jumped in 2007 after Elaine Chaos mother passed away and Trusts and inheritance kicked in.
ARM: "If you didn't buy into the nonsense about Iraq weapons of mass destruction then probably not. Drago, of course, bought the whole story."
LOLOLOLOL
I suspect most who participated in Gulf War 1 did not. Too much experience to the contrary.
And what was the source of that very considerable amount of money? McConnell is a quisling, bought and paid for by the Chinese.
ARM: "And what was the source of that very considerable amount of money? McConnell is a quisling, bought and paid for by the Chinese."
I am happy to consider that possibility.
What do you have?
And dont stop there. Lots more people involved in that.
Try tossing a few D's into the mix.
Worldometer had a US total number of serious cases for a while, but they stopped.
I don't understand why governors are shutting down whole states when it's concentrated in the big cities. That can't be required by their laws, can it?
French russian jordanian and egyptiam intelligence said otherwise, so do the cables wikilieaks recovered of after action reports
Drago said...
ARM: "It is genuinely funny for me to hear all you right wingers attacking the CIA and FBI."
*************
Yeah, there's nothing that's happened in the past twenty years, especially the past the past 3 1/2 years, that would make us not trust the FBI and CIA.
Nothing at all.
ARM: "McConnell is a quisling, bought and paid for by the Chinese."
But this does present a problem for you Xi Cuckholsters.
If Mitch is owned by the Chinese...how can he be Moscow Mitch too?
narciso: "French russian jordanian and egyptiam intelligence said otherwise, so do the cables wikilieaks recovered of after action reports"
Oh, Saddam definitely had some WMD in terms of chem weapons and some bio stuff.
After all, he had already used them on his own people.
The question was how immediate was the threat?
Illness and disease are the result of sin, collectively
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
If you didn't buy into the nonsense about Iraq weapons of mass destruction then probably not. Drago, of course, bought the whole story.
******************
Yeah, just like all those Iranians gassed by the Iraqis during their war, and those villagers in Halabja, were all foolish to buy into the nonsense of Iraq weapons of mass destruction.
Thats the trickier deal, the way that issue as well as the salafist network that involved iraq, suggest we didnt know whar we were doing.
Wholelotta: "Yeah, just like all those Iranians gassed by the Iraqis during their war, and those villagers in Halabja, were all foolish to buy into the nonsense of Iraq weapons of mass destruction."
I think ARM has fallen prey to the lefty talking point that WMD ONLY means nukes.
https://www.biblestudytools.com/daniel/9-9.html?utm_source=jeeng
The panic and "over freak" is not coming from those committed to stopping the spread. It's coming from those willing to accept 200,000 premature deaths of innocent Americans as the price we must pay not to have economic recession.
CNBC reports that Americans displaced by the coronavirus crisis filed unemployment claims in record numbers last week, with the Labor Department reporting Thursday a surge to 3.28 million.
This is more than four times the highest number ever recorded. If that rate keeps up we won't be talking about a recession, we will be living through a Great Depression. And yes, if that comes to pass I can imagine there are some who'll have trouble "forgiving" those who brought a decade of impoverishment, destitution and despair to an entire generation of Americans.
narciso: "Thats the trickier deal, the way that issue as well as the salafist network that involved iraq, suggest we didnt know whar we were doing."
What?
How could the Neocons be wrong? (/sarc)
I can remember when this thread was about the cost of an economic shutdown versus excess deaths cause by Winnie Xi Flu.
Hey Skipper,
Thank you and everybody in your same position. I do appreciate the knock-on effects you are describing. The cascade of economic despair that we are risking will be averted by people like you, if at all. It won't be egg heads or government workers. Sincerely, stay safe and thank you. Please pass along the hearty and many well wishes.
Birkel: "I can remember when this thread was about the cost of an economic shutdown versus excess deaths cause by Winnie Xi Flu."
I dont think ARM is going to appreciate you making fun of Xi that way.
Not to worry though: in the coming Great Depression there wont be anywhere to go or much to buy so no one has to leave their homes....prior to eviction.
Walter
You mean the Ferguson paper?
Read the quote from Ferguson above. That summarizes the important bit. He has projections from computer models. One assumes no intervention, the other assumes the current British intervention. If his projections are accurate the interventions save 500k lives. It’s a prediction, not a fact. It doesn’t prove the interventions are right or actually will work, but it certainly doesn’t prove they are unnecessary!
"You ole zipperneck."
It was the last flight for the crew of our Sydney to Dallas flight on Sunday.
480,000 lives saved or created.
Obama would be proud.
"Oh, you men are all alike. Seven or eight quick ones and then you're out with the boys to boast and brag. YOU BETTER KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT."
Ken B said...Walter
You mean the Ferguson paper?
--
Well..YES.
Go to the source that you were surely referring to.
Hop to it.
Lest we forget:
"Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see The Traitor [at Lincoln Center]. If The Wire was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film."
---Bill de Blasio, March 2, 2020
Dr Birx, actual expert...
"So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that. Models are models. We are — there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on our experience.”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/26/dr_birx_coronavirus_data_doesnt_match_the_doomsday_media_predictions_or_analysis.html
Achilles to the white courtesy phone, please.
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