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484 comments:
1 – 200 of 484 Newer› Newest»My TDS wife is listening to the live press conference. Trump is sounding presidential. Makes the case they are seriously working on it. He knows exactly when to differ to the experts. Like his remarks that the economy can be rebuilt quickly but people can't be replaced. He loves the hot seat.
Indeed. Spent the last several weeks of unscheduled down time planting, transplanting, moving, and dividing all sorts of fauna up here on a Ricky Top. Just received a tree species paeony ludlowii from Miss Lucille out in Oregon. Life is good at least for today.
Looks really cold and gray. Here in the pugetopolis it is another sunny spring day. This good weather is supposed to last until Monday. Hopefully long enough for theplum tree to pollinate itself so we get plums this year.
This is going to end the Corona Virus scare.
It will do an even better job than Chloroquine.
Even better than the sun and higher temperatures.
COVID-19 is going to be memory holed so fast people's heads will spin. It will be verboten to bring up in polite company.
I know everybody's monitors may have different tone and saturation. Still, on my screen the shade of blue is just the coldest color I've seen.
Beautiful.
This is an excellent opportunity for everybody, and particularly Donald Trump, to show what they're made of.
Thank you, Professor Althouse, for your good sense and compassion during this very difficult time. May you and your family be safe.
"I'm going to give you a prediction about this winter? It's going to be cold, it's going to be dark and it's going to last you for the rest of your lives!"
One of my favorite movies.
We got sunny and mild with pollen all over the place. Icy darkness can be romantic, but for golf being cancelled. We want the Masters back.
Walking our dogs this morning, we stopped to talk to our neighbor who, does lab testing at UW Hospital, and she reported that they now have in place a new DNA test for ConVid19 that can be completed in an hour and half. This means people can know the results within the day--good news here.
Best data I have seen on Coronavirus testing in the US is that we have run 103,000 tests as of yesterday afternoon with 12,000 positives. This is roughly the same 10% positives we have seen in the US from the beginning when the CDC was collecting all the data, and before the state labs started running. In other words, the new cases explosion is a case of testing exploding by the same factor. It really is the case of a termite infested home. Some locales have higher positive rates, some lower, but the national average is 10% and that has stayed steady since testing in the US started last month.
The virus has already spread widely and deeply just like I wrote here 2 or 3 weeks ago. Had we run 100,000 tests in February, you would have found the same rough 10% positives, and probably in January, too.
theplum tree to pollinate itself so we get plums this year.
I believe I lose a lot to the raccoons.
Hi @Yancey,
Love your stuff -- keep it coming!
"The virus has already spread widely and deeply just like I wrote here 2 or 3 weeks ago."
I think's that's probably right. But the parallel question is, What has it been doing during this period without a vaccine or treatment or detection? The answer is -- not much.
US Population - 330 Million
No. of coronavirus fatalities - 224
My brother-in-law is a physician anesthesiologist in Portland. He's not working!
All elective surgeries have been cancelled. Everything is being focused on the Wuhan Flu.
We will reach about 100,000 tests per day sometime near the end of next week at the present rate of increase, but we will eventually reach a point where the number can't be physically increased- reagents aren't unlimited and aren't probably being resupplied at a rate high enough to continue such an increase. I would guess 100K/day is somewhere the near the limit based on South Korea's experience.
So, expect by the end of next week anywhere from 10,000 to 15,000 new cases/day in the US, but that will level off because of physical limits of testing. Italy, Spain, France, and Germany may already be at the limits of testing increases.
Numbers I saw reported for New York state seemed to show 20% positives, but they have found more than two hot spots where testing is showing 50% positives. Those are the places to avoid, and the places you want to quarantine directly.
What I enjoyed most about the news conference today is that it has become clear that all the members of the administrations team have reached the end of their rope with the moronic questioning by the idiot reporters.
There were only a couple of good questions that I heard with the remaining 98% utterly repetitive and as dumb as a box of rocks.
One of the good questions related to whether or not companies were retooling factories to produce new goods (that's a big deal).
Pompeo completely blew off another of those Why is the President attacking the press?!! questions but simply saying: next question, while Trump just gave a withering look at the idiot reporter.
Instant Classic.
The reports I have seen out of Italy is that they allowed the infection to run rampant in nursing homes and hospitals, sort of like the care facility in Kirkland, but on a more widespread scale. This is where testing resources should have been focused right from the start- constant testing of the people that worked there, and strict limits on visits from outsiders.
Ann, so you're still going in your run?
I'm still doing my walk but there are damn few people outside here in the exurbs. Fewer than usual, yet obviously more people at at home now, with kids.
It's spring! I don't get it.
And, if we do test 500,000 per day before the 2nd week of April, you will get 50,000 new cases per day.
I often walk my dog along the river here. About a month and a half ago I saw an otter swimming and diving. It came up on the shore ice and ran around a bit. I hadn't known otters lived here, so I was kind of excited about seeing one.
I've been keeping an eye out for it ever since. Yesterday I finally saw it again. It was closer this time and I got really good look at it. It was finding something on the river bottom, bringing it up on to the ice and eating it.
The use of my gym here in Oak Ridge was very light this week-about half what I would see both at noon and at 5 p.m.- so a lot of people are social distancing by staying home from the gym.
We haven't had orders yet for closure of non-essential businesses.
This seems to be the right place to remark that Donald Trump can expect to pick up only a negligible number of additional votes from New York City in gratitude for dispatching the USNS Comfort to assist with handling coronavirus cases. He is doing it anyway because it is the right thing to do. Good man.
Hopefully long enough for theplum tree to pollinate itself so we get plums this year.
My grandmother, who lived on the Kitsap peninsula, had a tree that I believe was known as an Italian plum. The fruit was small, oblong, with yellow insides and black skins. I still think about those from time to time, years after eating them for the last time. They were delectable.
The people who are at the gym are practicing good hygiene with cleaning before and after use of equipment except for the weight plates.
There's an interesting article over at Ars describing all the potential treatment vectors for Covid-19 (and before anyone asks, no, it wasn't written by that guy).
At any rate, I found it interesting. The potential therapies that target the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase produced by SARS-CoV-2 seem the most promising.
I have never understood what was wrong with insider trading, even when it was insider trading. It moves the stock price to what it should be quicker, and so spares new buyers from overpaying.
All market research is aimed at getting an information advantage, which is what prices the stocks correctly in the first place. Correctly means you can outperform the market. All the information that's worth getting is already in the price. Insider information is just one more contribution.
The damage is done by the stock being worth less, not by the seller.
It's like price gouging - a beneficial market force is vilified for entertainment. Even by the right, which ought to know better.
Ann, so you're still going in your run?
I'm still doing my walk but there are damn few people outside here in the exurbs. Fewer than usual, yet obviously more people at at home now, with kids.
It's spring! I don't get it.
My neighbor and I came out of our houses at the same time yesterday and I stopped to talk to her .... she was visibly uncomfortable. I mean, sweetie, I'm not coughing or sneezing and you are standing several feet away. It's not Magic Leprosy.
can't outperform the market
According to Wikipedia 45,000 people commit suicide in the US per year currently.
I wonder what an economic depression and massive forced unemployment will do to those numbers.
Farmer was getting his dad. Long drive. You there Farmer?
I just returned from a long bike ride, in sunny 70 degree weather, returning five minutes before a cold downpour that I could see coming for the last half hour.
Insider trading by Congress isn't illegal, if I am remembering correctly. It is politically damaging, sure, but not illegal.
I know they all have so-called blind trusts, but does anyone really believe this shit?
For the record, I agree with rhhardin- it shouldn't be illegal for anyone for lots of reasons.
So Achilles, I take it you are now a never Trumper, having soured on the guy who shut the border over a piffle, inflamed the Chinese government over a piffle, busted the already broke treasury over a piffle. I assume you stand with the 219 Democrat Congress critters, and Joe Biden, who condemned his over reaction — over a piffle.
The GOP Senators who dumped common stocks the day after their secret briefing on a coming Coronavirus economy crash included Kelly Loeffler the appointee Senator in Georgia who was a RINO favorite until last year. The AJC has been touting her and slandering Doug Collins who is running for the same seat. So the AJC ran a headline that Senators Perdue and Loeffler did the same thing.but Perdue’s investment guy had him buying in an equal amount that he sold. That is not what Loeffler did. She dumped 3.6 million the day after the Classified Briefing she was in on along with Burr.
Collins will now win this seat despite McConnell’s spending millions on slander TV ads to destroy him. Swamp loses another one.
Maybe the problem is that people think of owning a stock as making a bet rather than owning the company. If the company suddenly starts failing, it's you that owns it. The stock price ought to go down as fast as possible, to match.
The bet-making people want to screw the buyer of their damaged property instead of being fair about it.
An isolation of more than a few weeks very quickly turns into a depression level economic situation with unemployment running north of thirty percent, hundreds of thousands of bankruptcies and a collapse of the supply chain. A timeline for any eventual recovery will be similar to the depression level recovery. The health of humanity in that scenario needs to be carefully considered against any projections of the impact of the virus.
Government actors calling for either more draconian measures or prolonged isolation measures beyond a few weeks are behind the curve, and we're all about to be flattened...
Ken B said...
So Achilles, I take it you are now a never Trumper, having soured on the guy who shut the border over a piffle, inflamed the Chinese government over a piffle, busted the already broke treasury over a piffle. I assume you stand with the 219 Democrat Congress critters, and Joe Biden, who condemned his over reaction — over a piffle.
Look. I know you are kinda limited. I would recommend reading comments and taking in information before lashing out with things like this.
You have a pattern of trying to attribute opinions to people that don't accurately reflect what they think.
I would request you actually read what I say instead of making things up.
Rothschild had inside information about Napoleon being defeated and bought what he knew would go down. Fellow traders, knowing he had inside information, started buying. Then Rothschild sold everything to them.
Warren Buffett has always made money for his partners.
You can make money but not by beating the market. The market makes money is why you make money.
Yancey Ward said...
And, if we do test 500,000 per day before the 2nd week of April, you will get 50,000 new cases per day.
No we wont.
First if we are testing 500000 a day we need to start devoting a sizable number to random sampling and get a real denominator.
Second as the number of tests increase the rate of new cases will decrease because of adverse sample selection. Right now we are testing people with the most severe symptoms. As the test spreads to people with less obvious symptoms positives will fall.
I think a lot of people were infected. But I don't think we will get 50000 new cases a day. It would still be raging in China if it was that communicable.
What I enjoyed most about the news conference today is that it has become clear that all the members of the administrations team have reached the end of their rope with the moronic questioning by the idiot reporters.
I noticed that too, Drago. Even Fauci got in a sharp retort or two. The presence of reporters add nothing and it is a needless congregation of people that should be banned. But I can just hear the mediaswine squeal if that happened. [Trump is muzzling the press!]
The Congressmen involved made a shrewd move, but part of their job is not making such shrewd moves.... Someone is going to make a shrewd move and buy at the absolute bottom. That particular shrewd move will not be disapproved of. Maybe you could even run on it.
Achilles
I think it’s admirable, the way you have turned on Trump because your reading of the evidence shows him to be a disaster. After all, this whole covid19 thing is wrong top to bottom you say.
Who banned China travel early? Trump. Or Trump the bumbler as your argument implies.
Who closed the Canadian border? Trump. Bumbler, as above.
Who short circuited the FDA? Trump. Bumbler, as above.
Who encouraged staying at home? Who promised huge new spending, to not work? Trump. Aka Bumbler.
Who aggravated our biggest trading partner? Bumbler, as ever.
Now I don’t agree with you. I think Trump seems to be doing a decent job. I do not think Trump is a bumbler. But I admire you, day after day, making the case he's incompetent. I hope you are right.
I watched the news conference. There is one reporter that the President always calls upon. She looks puffy and malignant and asks obviously biased questions. I see why the President always calls upon her. If you wish the living embodiment of an unattractive and biased press, she's the go to person. A lot of those other reporters were chosen for their good looks, and the semiotics aren't so obvious.
Our press is a heap of hot garbage. They need to be fired and replaced.
Data from Powerline:
"In South Korea. . . which had an early surge of cases, the death rate in Covid-19 patients ages 80 and over was 10.4%, compared to 5.35% in 70-somethings, 1.51% in patients 60 to 69, 0.37% in 50-somethings. Even lower rates were seen in younger people, dropping to zero in those 29 and younger.
We also have some early U.S. numbers from the CDC:
This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years."
Such data support strict quarantine for the groups actually at risk, not an economically disastrous universal clampdown.
I reported the wrong numbers a few minutes ago. That should read: Today Italy reported 5986 new cases and 627 new deaths in a 24 hour period.
“Today Italy reported 2335 new cases and 627 new deaths in a 24 hour period.”
Oh come on Mockturtle, not that stuff about an accelerating death rate AGAIN! Sheesh. Don’t you know that
1 half a million Americans died in the civil war, and that’s a much higher total, much higher
2 thousands die of old age every day. We don’t have quarantines over that!
3 flu gets better in July. That’s only 110 days away.
4 FLU FLU FLU FLU FLU FLU
That anti-malarial drug might turn out be a forlorn hope, but if you really want a forlorn hope, try to picture Joe Biden holding such a daily presser.
Such data support strict quarantine for the groups actually at risk, not an economically disastrous universal clampdown.
I agree but it will be hard to sell to Democrat mayors and governors. The economic harm seems attractive to them.
It is easy for my wife and me to self isolate.
It would still be raging in China if it was that communicable.
Don't trust Chinese data
I wonder if Sam Donaldson is still supporting Michael Bloomberg?
Hey! Hey! Jabba the Gov is going to order "shelter in place" in Illinois starting tomorrow, according to unnamed sources close to his office. Let's stir in some unnecessary panic!
Now, every time I go outside, I'll always be on an urgent errand.
There really is no reason to stay in Illinois. To a lousy climate in every sense, add this sort of governmental overreach--it is disgusting.
Jabba ain't my shepherd.
My brother-in-law is a physician anesthesiologist in Portland. He's not working!
My OR nurse niece may have her days cut to three a week. She works with the liver transplant team at Rush in Chicago.
Her husband is laid off from school.
“What I enjoyed most about the news conference today is that it has become clear that all the members of the administrations team have reached the end of their rope with the moronic questioning by the idiot reporters.”
It takes a lot to make me feel sympathy for Prime Minstrel Trudeau. If he were being fed feet first into a wood chipper that might do it. At least it might if I have had my morning coffee. But watching him with the Canadian press, who are not as bad as CNN, I felt for him.
Fucking gawd offal people.
"Rauner is the worst governor we have ever had--or at least since Blago."
Jabba--"Hold my beer."
“ Don’t trust Chinese data.”
Indeed. In fact this claim of theirs alarms me a bit because it looks like a lie. They hid stuff before, and they are peddling propaganda now that they are the way and the light.
Hey gang, everybody here seems to know something so I thought I'd give you this. My nephew in North Carolina wants something to do for the summer. Talking about coming up to NYC. Which is fine, I'll work that, but this is my ask:
I had suggested to him that you consider getting a job in the oil patch in Texas or North Dakota or wherever, as a roughneck or serving the roughnecks. How do you get those kind of jobs?
One good reason I don't trust Chinese data is that they have now literally banned any report that looks bad for China. In an ideal world, of course, WHO would be doing a real investigation there instead of the carefully orchestrated one where armed police kept people from shouting truth from their balconies.
R/V,
If you get a chance, ask your neighbor about how many..i.e. whether they think sufficient.
Four or five years ago the San Juan river, on the north edge of the Diné rez, froze just about solid and there were blocks of ice 3 feet thick - about the depth of the river - tossed up on its banks.
Nichevo, they're talking about slowing down [or even stopping] drilling for a while due to plummeting gas prices so it might not be the ideal time for oil company work.
Best part of that presser was reporters asking what calling out reporters says to the American people..to which Trump gladly and clearly explained:
They are an additional hazard in the situation.
Michael K said...
It would still be raging in China if it was that communicable.
Don't trust Chinese data
I agree their 3248 number is suspect. 32480 would be more in line.
South Korea and Japan and Taiwan and Singapore however carry the point.
Pakistan is belt and road just like Italy. Lots of Chinese guest workers. Australia has a lot of cross travel. Brazil, India. Africa seems to love contracting diseases.
Temperature and humidity are the wall this virus does not seem to climb over.
BREAKING NEWS FROM OFFICIAL CHINESE NEWS SERVICES: Final estimates of deaths due to Mao's Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward:
- 17 deaths
- 4 skinned knees
- 1 stubbed toe
WAPO/NYT/CNN/NBC/ABC/MSDNC/Reuters et al laud Chinese officials for their "openness" and "transparency" and these "reporters" and "journalists" call on the Trump administration to be as open as their Chinese Communist Party counterparts...assuming Putin approves of it.
My son's an oncology surgeon at Mayo, Rochester MN. He found out after a surgery his patient has CV. He wasn't happy. He's worried about bringing it home to his kids.
Mockturtle, that had occurred to me. Who knows where any summer jobs are anywhere, though? This has stuck to my mind for a while now, kid could use an adventure. Wants to be a writer, or a screenwriter.
Achilles: "Temperature and humidity are the wall this virus does not seem to climb over."
Can temperature and humidity be weaponized to keep Hillary from colluding with the deep state to continue the serial coup attempts? As I recall, she tends to collapse a lot when its hot outside.
Any potential screenwriter must read, "Save the Cat" books. Along with the "Hollywood Standard."
"He's worried about bringing it home to his kids."
Why? Why more than the flu?
Don't trust Chinese data
Of course not.
Apparently making a working link is akin to rocket science.
Worst part of presser was Trump slobbering over Xi.
Winnie Wu Flu
"Why? Why more than the flu?"
Assumes fact not in evidence.
I'd like a pet mastodon for icy days like that.
“My son's an oncology surgeon at Mayo, Rochester MN. He found out after a surgery his patient has CV. He wasn't happy. He's worried about bringing it home to his kids.”
This very thing happened to my friend...
I just received a text from a friend from New York, whose husband, a physician, is now home with fever, pain in the chest, dry cough. She is 5 months pregnant and they have three other children at home. They sent him home from the hospital he was tested in and working in because if one member of the family has it the rest will too.
Bill Maher needs corona up the ass.
he might like it
Meanwhile...there's Uncle Joe, he's movin' kinda slow at the Junction....
Matt Viser Twitter:
"Joe Biden says he is “desperately” looking to be in regular contact with the American public, perhaps with regular press conferences in Wilmington, Del., or using technology. "They tell me there’s ways we can do teleconferencing via us all being in different locations,” he says."
20 Mar 20
Nichevo said...
Mockturtle, that had occurred to me. Who knows where any summer jobs are anywhere, though? This has stuck to my mind for a while now, kid could use an adventure. Wants to be a writer, or a screenwriter.
You don't think the summer cruise ship jobs will be there?
Sorry.
See if NASA has any internship stuff. I have found it is hard to get hired at NASA if you don't go through their internship programs.
"a physician, is now home with fever, pain in the chest, dry cough."
Considering prescribing Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin off label?
This from a Navy Mom group friend...
“So, my not so excellent adventures this week getting tested for COVID-19. First, it took three days to get an order. Finally got the order Monday and headed over to the testing center. I was turned away, couldn’t get in line, they were at capacity for the day. Went back early Tuesday. I was in my car in line for six hours 20 minutes. Hundreds of cars in (I think) about ten lines feeding into the main line. Then just when you think you’re close, you’re diverted into a second parking lot staging area with a big sign stating “2 hour wait from this point.” The scene inside the garage at CCF was surreal. All of the staff of course in full gear. Notice the strange metal heat/light sources. The test is quick, slightly uncomfortable. The medical staff called me “a champ” and sent me on my way. Still waiting for results, quarantined at home until cleared.”
Peter Alexander[NBC News] pressed Trump on the chloroquine drug: “What do you say to Americans who are watching you right now who are scared?”
President Trump: “I’d say you’re a terrible reporter… The American people are looking for answers and they’re looking for hope and you’re doing sensationalism…”
I almost laughed out loud.
Here comes the memory hole.
Too bad Joe Rogan has endorsed Berno and called out Biden for being unable to talk.
Could have had up to 3hrs on that platform.
Handlers would have given him the hook after 20 minutes.
"Sorry Chuck, gotta go."
""Why? Why more than the flu?"
Assumes fact not in evidence."
Very cute. So, question for you Meade: do you remember any anecdotes or news stories about a medical person bringing the flu home to "the kids"? Me neither. And that includes listening to several relatives, over several decades, telling war stories from their jobs in health care.
So, let's assume this doc is in fact at least as worried about ordinary flu as he is about Wuhan. Why should he be worried? What evidence is there that Wuhan harms anyone under 20?
My daughter just finished her "online classes" for kindergarden. We did some extra stuff. I taught her how to do 4 minus 6.
I was going to take her to the Y today.
But they are closed.
No Gym. No services rendered. They are going to have to refund a lot of memberships. They will probably still be in business after this is over. Planet Fitness will probably be fine. LA fitness etc.
I am just thinking about what all the smaller family owned Gym's are going to do. This is going to land on them particularly hard.
This is fucking absurd.
“ I almost laughed out loud”
So did I. But I laughed at the reporter.
On another message board I made a comment that China was going to have to pay a steep price for what they have done to the United States. The owner kicked me out. I was called a racist and someone posted a link to Wikipedia listing all of the great inventions by the Chinese.
This is all true.
People have gone nuts.
"getting a job in the oil patch in Texas"
Lol WHAT? Oil was 23/bl yesterday.
That's a depression...doubt anyone's hiring unless it's a relative.
"All elective surgeries have been...
CANCELED"
Joe Biden says he is “desperately” looking to be in regular contact with the American public, perhaps with regular press conferences in Wilmington, Del., or using technology. "They tell me there’s ways we can do teleconferencing via us all being in different locations,” he says."
20 Mar 20
This guy could not access the internet by himself. Could not download pictures from his phone to a computer. Could not make a comment on this blog or on twitter without help from an intern.
Dave Begley
That’s been the standard response for years now. It won’t change just because of one pandemic. It’s still the media line, because it sells with their customers.
On another message board I made a comment that China was going to have to pay a steep price for what they have done to the United States. The owner kicked me out. I was called a racist and someone posted a link to Wikipedia listing all of the great inventions by the Chinese.
This is all true.
People have gone nuts. Fredor, R/V Howard, LLR type Comments from elsewhere:
"..this is a deliberate distraction by the Racist-in-Chief. "Don't look at me and my failure to address this issue in a timely fashion. I'd rather have you think I am a racist!" What a choice: A.) An ignoramus; B.) A racist; or C.) All of the above. November can't come soon enough."
"Taiwan and Korea both tested quickly and are far ahead of trump and his racists remarks as we all pay the price for electing the idiot."
"When this is over, China will have had an infection rate and speed less than 1/4 of ours, per capita. Trump will have millions of deaths on his hands, directly caused by the damage he's caused by putting incompetent sycophants into positions of power, and his own slow, ignorant, sabotaging actions. "
"Trump scores the most points with his cult when playing the race card"
"It is common knowledge that Trump is a narcissistic man child who thinks that this passes for wit and manliness; while the low info Trumpeter's cheer this on, the rest of the world is distancing itself from us which in turn makes America as great as Albania"
FullMoon
This is surprising. Biden is the capable one isn’t he?
Didn’t he have an electronic town hall? Maybe they could modify their Iowa app. Hey! Didn’t he make a healthcare website?
pacwest reports: My son's an oncology surgeon at Mayo, Rochester MN. He found out after a surgery his patient has CV. He wasn't happy. He's worried about bringing it home to his kids.
So he's not worried about spreading it to his patients?
He's worried about bringing it home to his kids."
Why? Why more than the flu?
I'll ask him for you if it's important. He's a surgical oncologist, not an epidemiologist, so I doubt if he's going to have any great insights on it.
On the plum tree - it has four different plums on it, one of which is Italian. Usually we don't get all four each year because each one of four blooms at slightly different times and we usually get rain at inopportune times so they don't all pollenate.
Hoping for a good yeild this year.
Ralph won't see her until Sunday night as she works over the weekend. She said they do them in batches of 40ty but they have to be careful not to waste one element which is supplied by Italy (ironic). Here in Madison we seem to have enough test kits, and now quick test results. Hopefully the shut downs of business and schools and the self imposed social distance will flatten the curve quickly as it did in South Korea and Twain, which did an impressive job thanks to their medical system.
Golds Gymn is open. So I spent a dime’s worth of cheap gas and am working out. The wife’s circle of friends all warned her not to let me go to Golds. The church folks are fearful. Can’t wait for life to return to normalcy.
Okay, Sebastian, I found this for you on the internet.
I've come to the conclusion - somewhat reluctantly - that most of America has gone mad.
So he's not worried about spreading it to his patients?
The oddity is that Mayo hasn't tested him even though the have plenty available. He had a fever and cough a couple of weeks before and checked with the infectious disease department and they told him then he didn't need tested. I havent checked to see if hes been tested since the surgery incedent. I really haven't gotten into the weeds with him on all of it. I assume Mayo knows what it's doing.
Are you asking why a physician who comes into contact with CV19 doesn't self quarantine? Again, I'll ask if you want.
I've come to the conclusion - somewhat reluctantly - that most of America has gone mad.
Dave, are you referring to the American public or to the elected officials? I haven't seen or even heard of any madness among the populace. Some frustration on occasion but, overall, people are dealing with it like adults.
My step daughter who is a nurse was in self quarantine but a test revealed the patient she saw did not have the virus. She works ICU and critical wards. Hard to dispense with her services ...
pacwest reports: The oddity is that Mayo hasn't tested him even though the have plenty available. He had a fever and cough a couple of weeks before and checked with the infectious disease department and they told him then he didn't need tested. I havent checked to see if hes been tested since the surgery incedent. I really haven't gotten into the weeds with him on all of it. I assume Mayo knows what it's doing.
This is obviously a big part of the problem. Like the staff at the nursing home in WA who, even having symptoms, were never tested. And I wouldn't assume 'Mayo knows what it's doing'. There's a lot of pressure on providers to continue to provide.
“Dave, are you referring to the American public or to the elected officials? I haven't seen or even heard of any madness among the populace. Some frustration on occasion but, overall, people are dealing with it like adults.”
That's my impression here in Canada too. I agree politicians are making some impulsive decisions that cannot be sustainable. You cannot and should not lock down everyone. Social distancing is possible without curfews, shelter in place orders, etc.
tcrosse said...
This is an excellent opportunity for everybody, and particularly Donald Trump, to show what they're made of.
True. Every so often, unforeseen events give our people the opportunity to prove their mettle. Different times have different crucibles, anvils and hammers: The American Revolution, the Civil War, World War II, all times when the things that mattered came to the fore and foolishness was pushed aside, and a stronger nation came out of it. Hopefully that will happen now. We will fail if we cannot push the foolishness of the last couple of decades aside.
mockturtle:
The Governor of the nation-state of California is one. He predicted that 56% of the people in CA could get infected. Most of the Press is insane. People in Omaha have been scared to death. Any skepticism about the need to totally shut down our economy is met with calls of derision. Skeptics are called dangerous and are shouted down.
I posted on another forum John Hinderaker's piece from Power Line about the overreaction to this and people went whack.
Reason is out the door. Fear and panic rule the day. Small businesses are going to get crushed.
A guy who runs an investing message board predicts we won't have financial markets to come back to in a few weeks. I expressed a contrary opinion and he kicked me out.
I wouldn't want to look at Facebook.
The Press continues to whip people up. I'm now very negative. I just hope these drugs work and stifle people's fears.
Myrtle Beach SC is worried that travel restrictions may lock out the Eastern European kids who usually work the Summer hospitality jobs. The pay probably isn't great, but it's a party town so if you're young and looking for summer at the beach, it might be worth checking out.
Of course that assumes there will be a "Summer" this year.
I've come to the conclusion - somewhat reluctantly - that most of America has gone mad.
Depends on where you get your info, right? Reading here is mostly rational despite some continuous "I am more right than you and I have the stats to prove it'
Go on reddit or other left leaning sites and comments are pretty crazy.
Still curious as to why entire families are not wiped out when one member gets sick or dead. And, what are underlying problems that most dead seem to have had? Kinda of a lack of generally typical reporting info . Almost as if the reports are intentionally vague.
"Don't trust the Chinese data."
I don't, but what about the Washington state data? They're not adding many new cases after the nursing home debacle/flare-up originally.
This virus has been here since December for sure. We've already had a wave of infections from December-February.
Who knows how much immunity actually exists out there?
US death rate continues to fall. 1.6% a few days, 1.28% today. If we've already had a ton of unknown infections, that number would already be more in line with other flu strains.
Italy is proving to be an outlier due to mismanagement, cultural differences, sanitary standards, and having a large number of Chinese nationalists in-country for economic development.
@Sebastian
Generally he gets the flu from his kids rather than the other way around. Probably overprotective of his kids. They are 1, 3, 5, &6 years old, so he hasn't had the ER visits or near misses yet that every parent has to go through at some point.
And I wouldn't assume 'Mayo knows what it's doing'.
I'll lean towards assuming that the #1 hospital in the nation has a better grasp on things than a random internet commenter. No offense intended.
That's my impression here in Canada too. I agree politicians are making some impulsive decisions that cannot be sustainable. You cannot and should not lock down everyone. Social distancing is possible without curfews, shelter in place orders, etc.
Ya gotta think big, like our gov Newsome. Lock down a state more populous than your entire country.. I have predicted that Cal gov Newsome would be nominee for prez in 2024 or 2028. Not sure now. Is locking down entire state gonna seem like genius or stupidity in the future?
"Canada is about 25 times bigger than California. California is approximately 403,882 sq km, while Canada is approximately 9,984,670 sq km. Meanwhile, the population of California is ~37.3 million people (1.6 million fewer people live in Canada)."
Achilles said...
Pakistan is belt and road just like Italy. Lots of Chinese guest workers. Australia has a lot of cross travel. Brazil, India. Africa seems to love contracting diseases.
Temperature and humidity are the wall this virus does not seem to climb over.
It's hot now here in Florida, and while the humidity isn't up to summer levels yet, we're still getting cases. More importantly, in places like this that get hot and humid, most of us don't spend a lot of time outside under those conditions. We have air-conditioning to keep from having to suffer in heat and humidity. How much effect might that have on allowing the disease to keep spreading?
Singapore is hot and humid, they’re on their 2nd wave of Covid now.
Fake animal news abounds on social media as coronavirus upends life
pacwest asserts: I'll lean towards assuming that the #1 hospital in the nation has a better grasp on things than a random internet commenter. No offense intended.
Lean all you want, pacwest, but if your son had a cough AND a fever and is a health care provider and they refused to test him, I give them no credit.
FullMoon said...
Still curious as to why entire families are not wiped out when one member gets sick or dead. And, what are underlying problems that most dead seem to have had? Kinda of a lack of generally typical reporting info . Almost as if the reports are intentionally vague.
Perhaps you didn't see this story yet: Fourth person in NJ family has died from the coronavirus
Dave, the fear and panic seem mostly to be coming from economic forecasters. [Maybe because that's about all the TV I watch with no sports ;-) ]. Just be glad our President rejected a call to shut down the whole country! Thank God for Trump!
Achilles said:
Brazil, India. Africa seems to love contracting diseases.
***************
Maybe so, but they based on their *reported* deaths they are not contracting COVID in great numbers.
See the map here:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
In fact, there's speculation that the heavy uses of chloroquine in Africa may be a clue as to why the virus is not making any headway there. But...a lot of African countries don't have good public health resources, so the verdict is still out.
Clyde, I believe they are all siblings in their seventies.
Meade: "Okay, Sebastian, I found this for you on the internet."
Fair enough.
So, how do current data, from all countries, on risk of infection, severe illness, and death, for people under 50 compare to the flu?
How would the flu look if we reported the same way on infection, hospitalization, and death -- especially among those under 50?
Not trying to play games here, you realize, nor referring to the doc. Serious questions.
Fake animal news abounds on social media as coronavirus upends life
I assumed that drunk elephant story was fake.
People are so damned gullible - how many times do one have to see fake MSM news stories before one stops believing them by default?
And I wouldn't assume 'Mayo knows what it's doing'.
Watch out--it will turn on you.
Thin ice like that looks cool when it folds. And makes cool sounds as it piles up, too.
Ice-cold directive:
I cannot say who deserves preference at the top of the list, but medical ethicists go to the bottom.
Ice-cold, I say.
fake MSM news stories
The elephant story was on twitter - believing "somebody on twitter" is almost as bad as believing an MSM story.
the fear and panic seem mostly to be coming from economic forecasters
With good reason. Fear and greed drive the markets, but fear has always been the stronger motivator. Greed is usually a longer term motivator when it comes to markets.
I am not that fearful of the coronavirus because I am a pretty healthy guy. If I get it I will recover. My economic worries are not about losing work because I am retired. I worry about my investments dwindling and taking a long time to recover.
Bigger worries = the economy suffering drastic harm because we have over reacted. I am not criticizing how our leadership is responding. Most are doing their best in a situation with lots of unknown variables.
The media are scum. Last night PBS reported that Trump was guilty of insider trading (acc to my wife). When I challenged her, she said that the item was dropped. Either she was hallucinating or ...
US death rate continues to fall. 1.6% a few days, 1.28% today. If we've already had a ton of unknown infections, that number would already be more in line with other flu strains.
Oh, I think the positives will go up as testing gets wider application but I don't think the death rate will stay up.
Perhaps you didn't see this story yet: Fourth person in NJ family has died from the coronavirus
Well, you found one family.
"Bigger worries = the economy suffering drastic harm because we have over reacted. I am not criticizing how our leadership is responding. Most are doing their best in a situation with lots of unknown variables."
My sincere hope is that this becomes all temporary as the death rate drops and we seem to have capable treatments online, and then we can get back to a shred of normalcy and opening up society then.
"Singapore is hot and humid, they’re on their 2nd wave of Covid now."
385 cases out of 5.6m people. Zero deaths so far. It's almost as if you're rooting for the virus at this point.
Fourth person in NJ family has died from the coronavirus
Four related people die from the same illness. It's like their genes made them susceptible or something.
"agree politicians are making some impulsive decisions that cannot be sustainable."
It is not sustainable. People will revolt. There's too many of us to adequately contain. Businesses will just open back up. Sure, fine me -- much better than completely losing my livelihood. Hell, they're not policing Philadelphia now for crime. My coworker is worried — he says he may have to buy a gun but all of the stores are closed.
"Four related people die from the same illness. It's like their genes made them susceptible or something."
Look at the photo. They are all over 70.
The governor of NV just said he is making it mandatory for all nonessential business to shut down at midnight tonight. This is mass hysteria and people are going to be hurt badly. We have 1 death so far. ONE. People will die from this reaction, and not just one. The loss of wealth will translate into lost ability to support, protect and care for people at the bottom. Charity will dry up, as well as everything else. Where does the money come from now to pay taxes, to pay fire, police, schools, and EMTs and all the rest. Do people think that comes from government printing presses? Jesus, what idiocy!
Re: The Fusco family in New Jersey, the mother was 73. Her children who died were all in their 50s. There had been a big family dinner (27 people) and one of them had been unknowingly infected by someone they knew in the horse-racing community.
“Look at the photo. They are all over 70.” Two of them were in their 50’s.
————————————-
“Carmine Fusco and Rita Fusco-Jackson, who were both in their 50s, were "the most wonderful brother and sister that anybody can have," their sister, Andriana Fusco, told the newspaper. "They were good people. I don't know why this is happening. They didn't deserve this, they're too young."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-new-jersey-covid-19-kills-4-members-fusco-family-freehold/
What would people here who are upset over the closings, do if they were in a position of authority?
The governor of NV just said he is making it mandatory for all nonessential business to shut down at midnight tonight.
It was not made clear whether this included liquor stores or pot dispensaries. Sisolak might find an insurrection on his hands.
What would people here who are upset over the closings, do if they were in a position of authority?
An excellent question, which one could ask to those who are upset about how Trump is handling the Crisis.
I can at this time posit that you are not going to die from this, Covid19. Odds are very good that your state of health will not be adversely affected by it either.
Not a predicting sort, but it looks to me like people will begin emerging from their cocoons in a couple of weeks, likely in defiance of "emergency shelter in place" orders.
well that's useful
Inga
I am on your side in this squabble, but just mandating a closure of everything or worse a stay at home order hits things that bureaucrats think unimportant but that are important. We saw an example in PA with rest stops. They were important.
There are lots of cases. So, is a car repair business essential? It is if you want to replace mass transit temporarily and if you want massive delivery from restaurants etc. bob who repairs cars alone can easily distance himself and still work. Unless the governor orders him not to. My wife picked up online groceries and took them to our daughter so she could work extra hours as an icu nurse. Was that trip essential? We can decide better than a remote politician. His orders are too blunt and uninformed about local conditions.
So school closings yes, large event bans yes, you may not go out no.
80 degrees in DC
Clyde said...
It's hot now here in Florida, and while the humidity isn't up to summer levels yet, we're still getting cases. More importantly, in places like this that get hot and humid, most of us don't spend a lot of time outside under those conditions. We have air-conditioning to keep from having to suffer in heat and humidity. How much effect might that have on allowing the disease to keep spreading?
Florida has ~600 cases. 11 dead. 2 dead today.
3552 people committed suicide in Florida in 2018.
That is almost 10 people per day.
If you kick thousands of small businesses in the balls and cause thousands of bankruptcies and have thousands of people lose their livelihoods how many more suicides would you allow to be attributed to this attempt to crash our economy?
Italians send Coronavirus warning to Americans in new video
“My wife picked up online groceries and took them to our daughter so she could work extra hours as an icu nurse. Was that trip essential? We can decide better than a remote politician. His orders are too blunt and uninformed about local conditions.”
Yes it’s essential and I’m sure that the local politicians would see it as essential also. They aren’t going to be draconian, that’s just common sense.
Inga- do we close rest stops and truck stops? What happens then, when truckers decide that it isn't worth their lives to get you your supplies, if states decide they don't need to maintain the transport infrastructure?
Oh someone made a video!
Biden to Trump on coronavirus: "Step up and do your job!"
Biden's a real McClellan for our time.
Inga said...
Singapore is hot and humid, they’re on their 2nd wave of Covid now.
It is getting tough for you all I know. I will help you out.
Indonesia was a better example for you. Ecuador, Turkey. Etc.
They barely broke double digits but you know.
SEVEN PEOPLE DIED IN INDONESIA SHUT IT ALL DOWN!
“Inga- do we close rest stops and truck stops? What happens then, when truckers decide that it isn't worth their lives to get you your supplies, if states decide they don't need to maintain the transport infrastructure?”
No, not in my estimation. Truck drivers are essential and so are services for them to be able to do their jobs. Have all rest stops been mandated to be closed?
https://www.truckinginfo.com/353442/truck-stops-step-up-to-serve-drivers-during-the-covd-19-outbreak
“The truckstop and travel plaza association NATSO shared a letter from the U.S. Department of Transportation with state and local governments around the country, as well as key members of the trucking industry, stating that travel plazas and truckstops represent “essential businesses” that are vital to the nation’s emergency relief efforts as the United States grapples with COVID-19.
"All of your members must heed the CDC guidelines and follow state and local resstrictions," wrote Jim Mullen, acting FMCSA administrator. "In the coming weeks and months, it will be critical that these business remain open, 24 hours per day, providing America's truck drivers with fuel, food, showers, repair services, and opportunities to rest."
NATSO said that although many businesses will have to alter their services in the coming weeks, this letter reaffirms that truckstops and travel centers will remain open for business, providing fuel, food, and other amenities to the nation’s truck drivers.“
Here in Arlington, a handful of us have been earning the hate and contempt of our fellow residents by objecting to the obscene spending by our County regime, including the infamous million-dollar bus stop (yes, it literally cost A MILLION DOLLARS), which they then came back to proudly proclaim they had reduced the costs to about $600,000 per bus stop.
More recently in the last couple of years, it has been a $60 million-plus being spent on an "aquatics center," i.e. an indoor swimming pool. Added bonus, the pool is sited on the very edge of the county adjacent to the Potomac in an area that is hard to get to and where few people live.
Yesterday, the County Board held a meeting worrying about their budget in the face of economic doom. Yeah, a-holes, it would be nice to have that $60 million back, wouldn't it??
And how many tens of millions of dollars does it take to construct a single dog park?? You put a chain link fence around a field. Project done. It isn't that hard or that expensive. Or perhaps we don't need to spend tens of millions of dollars to rip up perfectly good curbs to move new ones in a foot in order to narrow the roadway and create a more dangerous flow of traffic?
Progressives will end up killing us all.
She's looking good tonight, that Martha.
Locking down an entire state is moronic. There are large rural areas in Illinois and California with small towns that do not need to be "locked down". These people are already "socially isolated".
This is grandstanding on the the part of Governors. Lots of small businesses will be hurt by this, - unnecessarily.
Inga said...
What would people here who are upset over the closings, do if they were in a position of authority?
What did Obama do in 2009?
Achilles, did you see the Pro Publica article that someone posted yesterday with the nine maps of possible scenarios and how the hospital system is likely to be overwhelmed in almost all but a best-case scenario? Here it is, and it will show you your local hospital situation as well:
Are Hospitals Near Me Ready for Coronavirus? Here Are Nine Different Scenarios.
I read Instapundit and he likes to say regarding Global Warming that he'll believe it's a crisis when the people who are telling him it's a crisis start acting like it's a crisis. When Algore and Obama and Hollywood celebs are buying beachfront property, you know it's not a crisis.
The people who are telling us this is a crisis are actually acting like it's a crisis this time. Believe them or not, believe those maps or not. All I can say is that you would not see them taking the actions they have taken on a bipartisan basis if the data they are seeing didn't scare the hell out of them.
Idiots in MSM were asking Trump if "The whole USA should be locked down"! We need a better WH Press Corps.
So does hot weather effect the virus, or is it that people get out more in hot weather?
How were hospitals not overwhelmed with swine flu? How was that different? (Genuinely asking)
They aren’t going to be draconian, that’s just common sense.
@Inga, sorry to have to disabuse you, but common sense is an uncommon attribute in officials, and particularly in federal officials.
Enjoy a Friday LinkSwarm
Biden will now step into the "pretend president" role. Because this is how democrats treat democracy. They own it, even when they hold no power or office.
How many of the dead in Italy are Chinese who are assumed to be vector? I have not seen Any breakdown?
Swine Flu stats:
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (0.02% case fatality rate) in the United States due to the virus.[117]
This does not lessen what is going on now, with Wuhan Covid-19 virus, but it is interesting to recall the panic back then. There wasn't any.
Blogger I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
How were hospitals not overwhelmed with swine flu
______&&&&&&
Did that require ventilator? Which seems to be bottleneck du jour.
Clyde said...
Achilles, did you see the Pro Publica article that someone posted yesterday with the nine maps of possible scenarios and how the hospital system is likely to be overwhelmed in almost all but a best-case scenario? Here it is, and it will show you your local hospital situation as well:
A bunch of immunologists and doctors are on camera.
People are listening to them for the first time in ages. Cameras! Bright lights! The media loves me!
But they only get to be on camera if they...
tell everyone they are going to die.
Meanwhile the numbers are just not there.
Around 500,000 people die of the flu every year around the world. 30,000 to 60,000 people die of the flu every year in the US.
Between 110,000 and 565,000 people died of the swine flu in 2009 when Obama was president.
That wasn't Obama's Katrina for some reason. I can't quite figure out why but it seems like disasters are treated differently when Democrats are president.
It is a mystery.
Sen. Joni Ernst: Direct unused campaign funds toward coronavirus response.
that's how you do it.
If sunlight UV has effect on virus have "medical professional" tried more exposure for affected patient!?
Maybe ICU should also be Greenhouse
"How many of the dead in Italy are Chinese who are assumed to be vector? I have not seen Any breakdown?"
Our press are incredibly incurious creatures who rarely connect dots in any meaningful way for their fellow citizens.
Between 110,000 and 565,000 people died of the swine flu in 2009 when Obama was president.
_____&&&&&&
Costly honeymoon.
I see that the Democrat Party, hypocrites that they are, have eagerly taken Bloomberg's money -- $18 million, which makes a farce of campaign contribution limit laws -- even though just yesterday they were condemning him for trying to buy elections.
Dude’s a doctor, per my intern niece, this ain’t rocket science. Wow.
BleachBit-and-Hammers said...
This does not lessen what is going on now, with Wuhan Covid-19 virus, but it is interesting to recall the panic back then. There wasn't any.
Oh shit.
You want the Red Pill or the Blue Pill?
I have read that regarding the death numbers in Italy, anyone dying while harboring the virus, regardless of actual cause of death, is counted as a CV death. Hit by a truck while carrying the virus with no symptoms and no awareness of it? CV death. Does anyone know of that is true or not?
And Bloomberg admits that he gave the money PRECISELY so that he/they could ram right through the rules that would otherwise prohibit them from coordinating with the Biden campaign.
Inga said...
What would people here who are upset over the closings, do if they were in a position of authority?
Inga, I would order that all those over 70 self isolate and those with respiratory preconditions, like emphysema , do so too.
My wife is very high risk as she has High Ige syndrome, and emphysema.
However, she also has rheumatoid arthritis and has been taking Plaquenil for years.
We have pretty much self isolated as it is easy. My son is a paramedic and is diabetic. I got him a supply of Plaquenil before it was on the news. He has no choice. But his family and he are protected.
The governor of Arizona has been more modest in his closings but he is a Republican. The governor of CA, where I lived for 60 years and fled three years ago, is an idiot and has closed down the entire state. This after allowing the "homeless" situation to be out of control for years.
Young people should be allowed to work and warned about personal cleanliness, such as isolating if they get sick and hand washing, etc.
We now have treatments that will almost certainly work. The economy cannot tolerate more than a week more shutdown.
The governor of CA, where I lived for 60 years and fled three years ago, is an idiot and has closed down the entire state. This after allowing the "homeless" situation to be out of control for years.
Exactly, Michael K! His concern is a bit spotty, isn't it?
I believe was known as an Italian plum
I'm told the tree I have is an Italian plum. It's been with the family in Seattle for over a hundred years.
We've got some REALLY good Concord grapes. They were adopted a long time ago as well.
Wikipedia article on the 2009 flu pandemic says:
"The new virus was first isolated in late April by American and Canadian laboratories from samples taken from people with flu in Mexico, Southern California, and Texas. Soon the earliest known human case was traced to a case from March 9 in a 5-year-old boy in La Gloria, Mexico, a rural town in Veracruz... By 14 November 2009, the virus had infected one in six Americans with 200,000 hospitalisations and 10,000 deaths."
So that one was ~16% over 8 months. The Pro Publica article says that 60 million Americans were infected by H1N1/09, although 1 in 6 would probably have been closer to 50 million. Regardless, 200,000 hospitalizations for either of those numbers would have been a hospitalization rate of a fraction of 1% (say 0.4%) of cases for H1N1. Now look at the estimate of cases needing hospitalization from the Pro Publica article: "According to the model, about a fifth of adults who are infected will need to be hospitalized." Is their model right? I don't know. If it is, then that means that there would be a hospitalization rate that might be 50 times higher that of the H1N1/09 pandemic. And they think that this coronavirus may be more contagious than H1N1/09 was.
The Met's stream tonight is Donizetti's La Fille du Regiment, a cute little comedy with a lot of big singing. It's a funny production starring Natalie Dessay and Juan Diego Flores.
Biden will now step into the "pretend president" role. Because this is how democrats treat democracy. They own it, even when they hold no power or office.
It's because he will be able to obfuscate rather than actually have to make hard decisions. Constant criticism of Trump and 20/20 hindsight. If Biden does make a misstep the 15 minute rule will be invoked. He will be Presidential! Pathetic.
I mean, you know...corn wine.
I look at the map of “Shenlter-In-Place,” and all I can think of is the Electoral College. Put Texas and Florida in the mix, and you’ve made the point.
On a more subtle, less political level, I do find it fascinating that the Top-6 places where COVID-19 is highest are the ports of entry. I think a lot of municipalities saw this positioning as an economic advantage. Perhaps less so now?
Achilles, I've always like your posts but I wouldn't want to be around you in a major crisis. Your whining is part of the problem rather than part of the solution. Most people I see are helping neighbors and behaving very admirably through these inconveniences. Let us all just pray it is short-lived.
I wonder what actuaries are thinking about this pandemic.
At some point, "experts" have to consider whether our shutdown politicians are saving enough lives to merit destroying the economy and harming people in other ways.
take all reasonable precaution, but an extended interruption of economic activity is unwarranted, unless we want a depression,
Narayanan said...
How many of the dead in Italy are Chinese who are assumed to be vector? I have not seen Any breakdown?
Let's do some envelope math real fast.
The Diamond Princess had 712 cases out of ~3700 passengers. About 20% of people exposed for weeks caught it.
If 300,000 guest workers all flew on planes together we could assume that all of those people were somewhat exposed. ~20% assumption is probably somewhat high but we will use it.
That would give you 60,000 cases which is more than the 47,000 currently reported. I think the 47,000 number is low because of adverse selection in testing.
The death rate among the Diamond Princess population was just over 1% of contracted cases and it skewed older than Italy. That would leave you at 600 dead out of the 300,000 of that population.
4000+ have died in Italy so N is much larger than 300,000.
It is also my guess is that a guest worker population is mostly young and healthy.
The 300,000 guest workers probably had some blankets they brought with them as gifts.
If people are already socially distanced in rural communities then lock down is harmless, correct, except as a purely abstract matter? My guess is that the main impact of social distancing in rural California is in larger communities (Redding, Eureka, Bakersfield Chico, Santa Maria) and in areas where farm workers and their families congregate. My guess is that distancing is doing real work there.
If people are not already socially distanced, then one has to consider. among other things, the incidence of the disease in the rural community (almost certainly higher than reported cases, due to lack of testing), the degree of social interaction, the vulnerability of the community's population (rural populations tend to be older), the proximity of the location to other sources of disease (many rural California communities are very close to big cities like Fresno and Sacramento), the hospital capacity in the rural community (typically low) and the administrative and signaling costs of a more complex regime. We don't have the data and models that Newsome was looking at, but prima facie his decision to do a blanket ban seems reasonable.
the reverse is probably true
“Not a predicting sort, but it looks to me like people will begin emerging from their cocoons in a couple of weeks, likely in defiance of "emergency shelter in place" orders.”
Um, definitely in defiance. These orders are completely untenable and, if one cared to make pretense of complying, there are a zillion ways to game them. In a few days, most people won’t even bother with the pretense. All that being the case, don’t the blanket orders actually make the spread of the virus more likely than sensible, targeted, attempts to isolate particularly at-risk segments of the population? But political dumbshow is always more important than common sense.
Am I to assume that those of you complaining the most live in either California or New York? Or Illinois? Otherwise, how have you been inconvenienced?
Stephen said...If people are already socially distanced in rural communities then lock down is harmless, correct, except as a purely abstract matter?
--
Maybe you're conflating social distancing with lockdown?
Rural doesn't mean working at home...aside from farming.
There is always escapism. In addition to the gallows humor that laughs in the face of doom.
OK --
Kirk and Spock and McCoy are on a shuttle craft carrying a woman infected with some disease. They get forcibly diverted to some planet, where they meet a famous person.
And, as they used to say back in the 60s, this Trek episode is a real gas.
Name the famous person.
In the form of a question.
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