Althouse: A bleak sunrise.

२४ मार्च, २०२०

A bleak sunrise.

३९६ टिप्पण्या:

396 पैकी 1 – 200 नवीन› नवीनतम»

Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: I didn't give this my "sunrise" tag because it's looking west and there aren't really any sunrise effects in the west. The eastern view was actually bleaker. That's why I chose this, with a slight texture to the clouds and something going on in the ice water.; २४/३/२०, ९:४२ AM
Maillard Reactionary म्हणाले...: "Study In Blue And Gray" by Ann Althouse.

Art makes bleakness beautiful.; २४/३/२०, ९:४५ AM
stevew म्हणाले...: Viewing it on my computer it reminds me of a foggy seaside sunrise. Those don't evoke a sense of bleakness for me because they usually kick off what becomes a lovely day. Many summer days begin this way in the area of MIL's Cape house on Buzzards Bay. As the sun rises the fog burns off. Then the land begins to warm and the breeze comes on shore.

Yeah, not bleak for me. :-); २४/३/२०, ९:४९ AM
Tommy Duncan म्हणाले...: Before things got serious with COVID-19 we ordered a new Lenovo laptop computer. It will arrive Thursday. It shipped from Hefei, China last week, passing through Shanghai. Hefei is near Wuhan.

Does anyone have any thoughts on whether we should handle or open the package?; २४/३/२०, १०:०८ AM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Tommy, that's not a silly question by any means. When I get packages I unwrap them out on the screened porch and then wash my hands thoroughly. If it's a clothing item, I launder it before wearing [I always did this anyway]. This article reports that, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the virus has shown to be present on surfaces after 17 days! Diamond Princess virus

While it is correct that a virus requires a living host, there are living bacteria virtually everywhere that provide a host medium for the virus.; २४/३/२०, १०:३५ AM
Bay Area Guy म्हणाले...: The great Dr. John Ioannides at Stanford is on the case. He wrote this 7 days, and it still holds:

Money Quote:

Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound — in theory. A visual that has become viral in media and social media shows how flattening the curve reduces the volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment.

Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse.; २४/३/२०, १०:४४ AM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Tommy Duncan
Good question. The virus can live on cardboard for 24 hours. Waiting is not a bad idea, and neither is wiping or washing.; २४/३/२०, १०:४५ AM
Sebastian म्हणाले...: "the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated."

Right. This is already clear in Italy, at least in measurement and recording. Confirmation bias feeds the panic.

The extent of extra, i.e, actual excess deaths, is still not clear.; २४/३/२०, १०:४९ AM
Nonapod म्हणाले...: mockturtle said...This article reports that, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the virus has shown to be present on surfaces after 17 days!

Let me preface this by first saying that I am in no way trying to discourage an abundance of caution regarding treatment the surfaces foriegn items like mail packages, groceries, or whatever. And I am by no means a health professional or expert on infectious disease, so please keep all that in mind too.

All that said, I would categorize transmission from contact of a surface after 17 days as highly unlikely in the extreme. It seems to me, for a successful infection to occur you need some sort of moisture to reactivate the virus, and you'd need a large number of viruses to achieve a successful transmission. Unless you were to literally lick a surface, it seems quite improbable that a small number of inert viruses would successfully infect you from just touching an item with your hands even if you touched your mouth or nose immediately after. And it seems to me that if it were the case that anything you touch that has the virus on it resulted in you becoming infected, there'd most likely be nothing we could do to control it short of the most extreme, insane measures.; २४/३/२०, ११:०७ AM
grackle म्हणाले...: … the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases

Yes. This is what the health professionals have been telling us since the beginning so this is not news. That word, “may,” in the statement is important because we will not know for certain until the aftermath is analyzed.; २४/३/२०, ११:१८ AM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Sebastian
You are misreading the Ioannides quote. In that bit he is saying that if hospitals are overwhelmed then pred ist IG conditions will ot be treated and people will die. That is, people uninflected by covid will die. That is not what is happening in Italy. The excess deaths in Italy are people who are infected.; २४/३/२०, ११:२७ AM
Jersey Fled म्हणाले...: Buy some latex gloves. I got some yesterday at Lowes. Put them on and unpack everything on a porch or garage or somewhere outside. Immediately put the packaging in an outside trash can.

When you remove the gloves, pull them inside out by the cuff. Discard the gloves.

Wash your hands before and after using the computer.

All of this is probably overkill, but what the heck. It's not that hard to do.; २४/३/२०, ११:२८ AM
Ignorance is Bliss म्हणाले...: Bay Area guy quotes

If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse.

Does he explain this? I can't figure out how, mathematically, flattening the curve could possibly make things worse. It will always reduce the amount above any given height (except above heights that already had zero above them). Thus it reduces the total number of patients above capacity. The fact that some of those patients were there for coronavirus, and some were there for less fashionable morbidities is immaterial.; २४/३/२०, ११:३३ AM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: The great Dr. John Ioannides at Stanford is on the case.

I admired his work in medical statistics, but some serious people have serious disagreements with his analysis, e.g.

Based on the current stats, I'm going with "overblown media-driven panic" and that it'll be similar to a bad flu season, where, according to CDC, 50 to 60K Americans die in a year: that's an average of 4-5,000 deaths a month, though they're mostly in one season.

How would the MSM be reporting 5000+ deaths from WuFlu in the last month? Kinda panicky, ya think?; २४/३/२०, ११:३६ AM
Tommy Duncan म्हणाले...: You may find the following links useful regarding COVID-19:

Minnesota COVID-19 Situation Update

Wisconsin COVID-19 Outbreak Summary

Wikipedia 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Wisconsin; २४/३/२०, ११:४३ AM
grackle म्हणाले...: Based on the current stats, I'm going with "overblown media-driven panic" and that it'll be similar to a bad flu season …

Nope. I am not buying the narrative that it’s just the flu.; २४/३/२०, ११:५१ AM
Sebastian म्हणाले...: Hey, have we heard from Slow Joe yet? Or was he too exhausted from his ten-minute teleprompter reading?; २४/३/२०, ११:५२ AM
BUMBLE BEE म्हणाले...: What Jersey Fled said, then crank up Stevie Ray Vaughn!; २४/३/२०, ११:५५ AM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Nonapod, you are of course free to do as you wish with that information including its outright dismissal. I intend to err on the side of caution as I have much to lose and nothing to gain by contracting the virus. :-); २४/३/२०, १२:०० PM
stlcdr म्हणाले...: r.e. packages...

Using gloves is probably overkill, if you don't have any cuts, wounds or sores on your hands. Skin is nature's protection; it's designed to keep these things out of the inside of your body.

Of course, if you feel it's necessary, then by all means use gloves.; २४/३/२०, १२:०४ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Spain is on a very dangerous trajectory. We still haven't heard anything from buwaya lately, have we?; २४/३/२०, १२:०६ PM
Meade म्हणाले...: I too am concerned for buwaya. I hope we hear from him soon.; २४/३/२०, १२:०७ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Using gloves is probably overkill, if you don't have any cuts, wounds or sores on your hands. Skin is nature's protection; it's designed to keep these things out of the inside of your body.

Unless you touch your face or anything else that might find its way into your body. I think perhaps you are confusing this virus with other kinds of pathogens.; २४/३/२०, १२:०८ PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: I was congratulating myself for stocking up on booze, then it turns out you just have to use the drive-thru, where they give the dogs a biscuit.

Panic in Colorado:

"Polis said there isn't an enforcement authority over that order, but said the enforcement should come from the greatest authority of all, the Grim Reaper."

Nope. I am not buying the narrative that it’s just the flu.

My "narrative" (word!) didn't say that it's just the flu.

So how do you think the MSM would be reporting 5000+ deaths from WuFlu in the last month, if there were 5,000 deaths?

Differently than they reported 5000+ deaths a month, which occurred a few years ago? Or the same way?; २४/३/२०, १२:११ PM
Openidname म्हणाले...: "mockturtle said...

"There are living bacteria virtually everywhere that provide a host medium for the virus."

With all respect for one of my favorite commenter, I beg to differ. Viruses specialize. A bacteriophage is a virus that specializes in infecting bacteria. COVID-19 is not a bacteriophage. COVID-19 specializes in infecting humans -- maybe also bats and pangolin.; २४/३/२०, १२:१३ PM
Wa St Blogger म्हणाले...: I am thinking finding latex cloves might be challenging. Get used to washing your hands often and not touching your face.; २४/३/२०, १२:१४ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Openidname: Look up the piggybacking of viruses on bacteria. A scientist in S. Korea has a video explaining this. This is why washing hands is so very important. Otherwise, intact skin would not be at risk.; २४/३/२०, १२:२६ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: PS: And I was not referring to bacteriophages.; २४/३/२०, १२:२९ PM
Francisco D म्हणाले...: I am thinking finding latex cloves might be challenging. Get used to washing your hands often and not touching your face.

Check out art supply stores (e.g., Dick Blick). They are a bit more expensive, but work well.; २४/३/२०, १२:३४ PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: This article reports that, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the virus has shown to be present on surfaces after 17 days!

Not the virus, just its RNA -

"SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces ... Although these data cannot be used to determine whether transmission occurred from contaminated surfaces, further study of fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 aboard cruise ships is warranted."

Strangely enough it stays active up to four days on stainless steel and plastic, much longer than on cardboard.; २४/३/२०, १२:३८ PM
Bay Area Guy म्हणाले...: HI @Fernadistein,

Yeah, there's no reason to put Ioannides on a pedestal. Disagreeing is fine -- and normal. But he's big -- like the Chicago Bears defense in 1985. Ya gotta come hard when confronting with him.

In 2007, he wrote, in my humble opinion, the single most important paper in the literature in the past 30 years:

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

Of course, most folks ignored him, but at least he's on record. Stanford didn't fire him, thankfully.

Based on the current stats, I'm going with "overblown media-driven panic" and that it'll be similar to a bad flu season, where, according to CDC, 50 to 60K Americans die in a year: that's an average of 4-5,000 deaths a month, though they're mostly in one season. .

Exactly right!; २४/३/२०, १२:३८ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: grackle said...
Based on the current stats, I'm going with "overblown media-driven panic" and that it'll be similar to a bad flu season …

Nope. I am not buying the narrative that it’s just the flu.

What are you basing your narrative on?

Just curious to see who exactly you people are trusting these days.; २४/३/२०, १२:४१ PM
madAsHell म्हणाले...: Does anyone have any thoughts on whether we should handle or open the package?

Lenovo?? Don't worry about the package, the virus is in the hardware.; २४/३/२०, १२:४१ PM
grackle म्हणाले...: My "narrative" (word!) didn't say that it's just the flu.

Readers, below is the part of the commentor’s previous comment that I’m not buying …

Based on the current stats, I'm going with "overblown media-driven panic" and that it'll be similar to a bad flu season …

The “current stats,” depends on which stats you choose to heed. The are many different “stats” and many of these statistics contradict other statistics. Which means that many of the “current” statistics will prove to be bullshit.

I also am not believing that the Wuhan virus in any significant way like ordinary flu and that the Trump team’s recommendations and guidelines are due to mere "overblown media-driven panic."

And, finally, I disagree that the Wuhan virus is, in any significant way, “similar to a bad flu season.”

I base that judgement primarily on the fact that hospitals and healthcare systems in general all over world have never to my knowledge been overwhelmed by ANY “bad flu season.”; २४/३/२०, १२:४४ PM
madAsHell म्हणाले...: We still haven't heard anything from buwaya lately, have we?

I noticed that as well, but I thought he was in San Francisco.; २४/३/२०, १२:४४ PM
BUMBLE BEE म्हणाले...: Soooo The Obama admin depleted n95 masks over H1N1 then never replenished 'em

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/los-angeles-times-and-bloomberg-news-federal-stockpile-of-n95-masks-was-depleted-under-obama-and-never-restocked

What else will we find?; २४/३/२०, १२:४५ PM
Churchy LaFemme: म्हणाले...: Their Thinkpads inherited a great design from IBM. I always disable the stupid touch pad and just keep the trackpoint enabled.

However, the last one I got had a really unusable keyboard, alsmost as bad as the old "chicklet" keyboards. I had to put it in another room and run it by remote desktop.; २४/३/२०, १२:४६ PM
BUMBLE BEE म्हणाले...: Buwaya said he was bugging out some time ago.; २४/३/२०, १२:४६ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: When the US death total passes the Chinese total for reported deaths due to Coronavirus, 3277 currently, I cannot wait for all of the media to praise their handling of the situation.

We are all of the way up to 622 people dead over a 2 month period.

It is a fucking disaster I tell you. Exponential! If you are posting anything against this narrative you should be banned from speaking in public. If you leave your home you should be thrown in jail.

Wait a sec...

It is fairly likely more people have died to the flu during the 10 days my kids have been out of school and schools were closed.; २४/३/२०, १२:४८ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: grackle said...

I base that judgement primarily on the fact that hospitals and healthcare systems in general all over world have never to my knowledge been overwhelmed by ANY “bad flu season.”

1957

1968; २४/३/२०, १२:५२ PM
Bay Area Guy म्हणाले...: I would say, Yes, the Wuhan/Corona/SARS-CoV-2 Virus is morphologically different from the flu virus, but nobody cares about that. It causes similar overlapping symptoms as the ordinary flu virus, but most importantly, it will kill many, many, LESS Americans people than the normal flu virus, that mutates every season.

Last year Flu in US
1. 35 Million cases (very few confirmed by test, almost all by symptoms)
2. 490,000 hospitalizations
3. 34,000 deaths.
Source: CDC

Coronavirus in US 2020:
US Population: 330 Million
No. of Deaths: 622
Source: RCP

Stick to the data, not fear-mongering or opinionated cluelessness.

Have a great day!; २४/३/२०, १२:५४ PM
daskol म्हणाले...: A bleak statistic? According to Worldometer numbers. the death rate in NYC has fallen well below 1% of confirmed cases: over 25000 cases, and around 210 deaths. I hope it continues to decline, even if that's driven primarily by denominator growth. Reports from those on the front lines of the war against COVID-19 disease are alarming at the same time as they are encouraging: various treatments are being tried, some apparently/hopefully successfully, and brave health professionals continue to show up for work as more and more of them are drafted into service outside their specialities to help triage in the busiest hospitals. This guy's twitter feed is simultaneously scary and encouraging.; २४/३/२०, १२:५५ PM
narciso म्हणाले...: in progress; २४/३/२०, १२:५६ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: Turkey, Malaysia, Philippines, Brazil, Australia, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, South Africa, India, Egypt, Taiwan, Vietnam, anywhere in Africa...

It is a total mystery why there isn't a massive pandemic in these countries.; २४/३/२०, १२:५७ PM
narciso म्हणाले...: there are cases in south Africa, it came from a cluster in Westport conn, but specially more humid climes have less,; २४/३/२०, १:०० PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Grackle

Certain commenters here are oblivious to any fact that does not fit their political preferences. You have met a couple of them. They have been peddling HOAX and FLU FLU FLU for well over a month. They are more focused on how the press treated Obama than on the spread of covid19.

It isn’t flu. It’s more contagious than flu. It causes permanent soft tissue damage in many cases. It kills at a much higher rate. It puts a significant fraction of its victims into a ventilator for weeks. There is no widespread natural immunity.; २४/३/२०, १:०१ PM
narciso म्हणाले...: you think nbc is bad; २४/३/२०, १:०१ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Achilles, many in Equatorial Africa are on malaria prevention medications and this was recently proposed as a theory explaining the low number of cases there.; २४/३/२०, १:०३ PM
Ignorance is Bliss म्हणाले...: Achilles said...

Exponential!

No need to add the factorial, the exponential is bad enough.

:); २४/३/२०, १:०३ PM
walter म्हणाले...: 1.
Politics · Trending
#ReopenAmerica
35.5K Tweets
2.
Politics · Trending
#NotDying4WallStreet
163K Tweets
3.
Politics · Trending
#CoronavirusLockdown
253K Tweets; २४/३/२०, १:०६ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: "Certain commenters here are oblivious to any fact that does not fit their political preferences."

It's very strange that this became political. But then, I can only find it split along political lines online and only among a minority of people. Every conservative I know in real life is taking it seriously.; २४/३/२०, १:०८ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: It's also interesting that it's not political in the way one might expect as the disease is more dangerous to older people (mostly Republican voters) than younger people (mostly Democrat voters.); २४/३/२०, १:१० PM
Nonapod म्हणाले...: mockturtle said...Nonapod, you are of course free to do as you wish with that information including its outright dismissal.

Actually I've personally been pretty cautious. I've gone so far as to wipe down groceries with disinfecting wipes. And I certainly didn't mean to imply that you were behaving foolishly or anything like that. I was just trying to put some perspective on the likelihood of something like that happening in a grander sense. If you or others were concerned that because other people aren't behaving the way you are (specifically with regards being hyper-cautious about foreign surfaces) that it would mean that the virus has some hugely greater chance of spreading far more than it already has. As I said, I don't believe that is the case. And even if it were the case... that that sort of infection vector was common, there'd be little we could do about it at this point anyway. It's one thing to ask that a vast majority of people practice social distancing, frequent 20 second hand washing, abstain from face touching, ect. It's quite another to ask them to behave as if every foreign object is absolutely toxic to the mere touch.; २४/३/२०, १:११ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Looks like Italy is not yet on the downside of the curve. Just today, 5249 new cases and 743 new deaths. :-(; २४/३/२०, १:१३ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Freeman Hunt
Yes, every conservative I know personally, and most I know via the web, take it seriously.
It isn’t even consistent really. Trump is not a denialist. He was over a month ahead of Trudeau in closing off travel from China. The fact the epidemic is real does not discredit Trump. Part of it seems to resentment over the different way the media treated Obama. A fair complaint but not grounds for thinking this a nothing burger!
Very strange as you say.; २४/३/२०, १:१३ PM
narciso म्हणाले...: it's smart to take reasonable precautions, it's stupid to flat line the economy, is that so hard to understand, and you add to this these are the same jackalopes who have been pushing the Russia hoax for three years, who sold Obamacare by the bushel, and one has to take note,; २४/३/२०, १:१४ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: So we're at roughly 1/30th of the H1N1 deaths and people are not allowed to go to work.

So it makes perfect sense for those to things to go together, based on past experience?

It's just not as bad as people were worried it might be.

Anybody who counts Twitter-bots and retweets has too much time on their hands.
#FakeStats
#FakeNews; २४/३/२०, १:१६ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: The logical solution, IMO, is to test everyone and then isolate those who are positive. And let the rest of the community go back to living their lives, using new prudent social measure. [Hand shaking should be passé]. So contrary to what the experts are telling us, we need more tests and more testing.; २४/३/२०, १:१६ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Birkel, if you listened to the Trump team today you heard that he wants people back to work by Easter.; २४/३/२०, १:१७ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: “ So contrary to what the experts are telling us, we need more tests and more testing.”

No, that’s not contrary to what the experts are saying. It is exactly what the experts are saying. The problem is we haven’t had enough test kits. We are getting more, but still don’t have enough. No one disputes testing and targeted isolation is the better response. It is physically impossible at this moment.; २४/३/२०, १:१९ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: So form an opinion apart from our laughable media. Nobody needs an American journalist to read a graph or see what measures have been taken in other countries to what ends.; २४/३/२०, १:२१ PM
Derve Swanson म्हणाले...: ब्लॉग प्रशासकाने ही टिप्पण्णी हटविली आहे.; २४/३/२०, १:२१ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: True that, Ken, but aside from the epic f**kup by the CDC, how is it that we are so lacking in tests at this stage when S. Korea has been mass-testing for weeks?; २४/३/२०, १:२२ PM
walter म्हणाले...: Paul Sperry
@paulsperry_
·
15h
Tho MSM are reporting U.S. COVID-19 cases are doubling every # of days, the reports are misleading. This should be expected as we plus-up testing. More tests, more cases. Naturally. The caseload shows us how fast we're finding new cases, not how fast the virus is really spreading; २४/३/२०, १:२३ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: "It's just not as bad as people were worried it might be."

Based on what? Right now it appears to be exactly tracking with what one would expect.; २४/३/२०, १:२५ PM
Derve Swanson म्हणाले...: ब्लॉग प्रशासकाने ही टिप्पण्णी हटविली आहे.; २४/३/२०, १:२६ PM
Bay Area Guy म्हणाले...: Here's the CDC on yearly Mortality in the US

These are just numbers, so chill the fuck out.

The US has a population of 330 Million, which means that 2.8 Million folks die each year. (In Chicago, though, you can still vote!).

Here's the top 10 killers, rounded up. I have added our new friend to the bottom:

* Heart Disease: 647,000
* Cancer: 600,000
* Accidents: 170,000
* Chronic Lower Respiratory:160,000
* Stroke: 147,000
* Alzheimer’s 121,000
* Diabetes 84,000
* Flu/Pneumonia 56,000
* Kidney Disease 51,000
* Suicide 47,173

Coronavirus (March 24,2020) 662

So, let's take suicide. About 48,000/year (rounded up for ease). Which means 4,000/month.

So, in the first 3 months of 2020:

Suicides: about 12,000 deaths
Coronavirus: about 662 deaths

Think hard about this before you comment. If you have digested a lotta propaganda this past month, it may have clouded your judgment.

In the meantime, yes, continue to take sensible precautions, wash hands, isolate if sick or elderly, etc, etc. Just don't shut down the $20 Trillion dollar economy.; २४/३/२०, १:२६ PM
Derve Swanson म्हणाले...: ब्लॉग प्रशासकाने ही टिप्पण्णी हटविली आहे.; २४/३/२०, १:२७ PM
Known Unknown म्हणाले...: "Art makes bleakness beautiful."

Bleakness makes art beautiful.; २४/३/२०, १:२७ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: Bay Area Guy, you realize that we're trying to prevent it from spreadsheet and killing a great number of people, not reacting to the number of people it's already killed, yes?; २४/३/२०, १:२८ PM
narciso म्हणाले...: for some it may seem like the 10th plague imagine an epidemic where even hope is ephemeral,; २४/३/२०, १:२९ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Mock
Because they had a stockpile, and we didn’t. And then they spent time getting new ones and the CDC wasted time. So we are way behind.
Most places are as well of course. Plus SK got on it earlier, when there were fewer infected.

In the next few weeks I hope this happens
- essential people get tested, and go to work ( and get regular tests)
- low risk people stay closeted for a bit then get tested and return to the public square
- the rest of us get tested but still try to reduce our public presence
- targeted isolation for positives
- regular tests for all; २४/३/२०, १:३० PM
stevew म्हणाले...: We will know for sure how serious and threatening this Covid thing is after it is over. That's how it works with every public health threat.

In the meantime, the responsible thing to do is collect as much data as possible to assess the risk, in real time. Then decide on the actions that will protect as many people as possible. Simultaneously we must weigh the pros and cons of the recommended actions; will they make people more safe, will they cause some other form of harm, is one worse than the other?

Dr. Fauci was quoted the other day, in which I recall him saying that Italy was a hot spot, lots of cases, lots of deaths, compared to other regions, and that no one has figured out why. The statistics are quite imperfect at this point. Comparing Covid to the seasonal flu is also imperfect - Covid isn't the seasonal flu.

All the uncertainty feeds the crisis. Best thing a layman like me can do is proceed with an abundance of caution.; २४/३/२०, १:३१ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: I agree with you, mockturtle. We need to get people back to work, so we need to get the numbers under control (purpose of lockdown) and switch to testing, contact tracing, and isolating as soon as possible. (Should have done that in the first place and avoided a lockdown entirely, but that's the government for you.); २४/३/२०, १:३१ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: “Bay Area Guy, you realize that we're trying to prevent it from spreadsheet and killing a great number of people“

Lotus 1-2-3 strikes back!
😉

Just kidding.; २४/३/२०, १:३३ PM
Known Unknown म्हणाले...: "We are all of the way up to 622 people dead over a 2 month period."

Almost 4 month period. (But there are probably uncounted deaths from December and January); २४/३/२०, १:३३ PM
narciso म्हणाले...: some things never change; २४/३/२०, १:३३ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: Autocorrect picked spreadsheet instead of spreading. I guess we don't want it to fill our spreadsheets.; २४/३/२०, १:३३ PM
Big Mike म्हणाले...: @Tommy Duncan, what Jersey Fled commented. Also, wear a mask of some sort — a painters mask will do if you have one, or even a bandana like the bad guys used to wear in old cowboy shows. Eye protection is probably overkill unless unboxing generates a lot of dust.; २४/३/२०, १:३३ PM
walter म्हणाले...: Jim Cramer
@jimcramer
·
16h
Not sure how to reconcile the futures with the potentially doomed legislation to help Americans deal with covid-19 given how far apart the Dems and the GOP are..
--
Dunno Jim. Anything interesting happen late yesterday? Anything?; २४/३/२०, १:३४ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: "Lotus 1-2-3 strikes back!
😉"

Ha! You know, I have a copy of that!; २४/३/२०, १:३४ PM
Nonapod म्हणाले...: Ken B said...
The problem is we haven’t had enough test kits. We are getting more, but still don’t have enough.

Regarding testing, in the US as of 2:25PM EDT we have conducted 328,768 according to the COVID tracking project. Almost all of those tests were completed within the past 10 days or so. Basically, testing has ramped up quite a bit recently. We've conducted a quarter of a million tests last week and we will most likely be able to do more than that again over the next week.; २४/३/२०, १:३५ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: We stick all the packages in a bag each day and date it to open three days later.; २४/३/२०, १:३६ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: It’s not like the flu

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common; २४/३/२०, १:३७ PM
Derve Swanson म्हणाले...: ब्लॉग प्रशासकाने ही टिप्पण्णी हटविली आहे.; २४/३/२०, १:३७ PM
Dave Begley म्हणाले...: Great townhall by VP and POTUS on Fox today.

Glad he exposed Fredo's brother's incompetence for not buying vents 3 years ago when he had a chance.; २४/३/२०, १:३७ PM
Known Unknown म्हणाले...: "and that no one has figured out why"

This is just absurd.

1. Large concentration of mobile Chinese nationalist and immigrant workers, especially in Northern Italy. (more vectors for the disease than a single "patient zero"
2. Larger smoking population
3. Median age of 48-ish years
4. Cultural differences (kissing hello, etc.)
5. Ignorance of ruling classes (Hug a Chinese day -- on February 5 -- where the video shows hundreds of people out in the streets nearly elbow-to-elbow
6. "World Class" Healthcare social healthcare system that is free until you really need it -- then it costs you dearly when there's an emergency.
7. Sanitary conditions outside of major metro areas and international hotels that are suspect.
8. Aged infrastructure that contributes to sanitary issues.; २४/३/२०, १:४० PM
JPS म्हणाले...: Nonapod,

"Regarding testing, in the US as of 2:25PM EDT we have conducted 328,768"

Thank you for this. I hadn't seen that number, or come across that exact site. I knew from the famous Johns Hopkins tracker how many cases and deaths we have, but had no idea how many had tested negative.

I think testing has been our biggest Improve so far. Glad we're ramping it up.; २४/३/२०, १:४२ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: The FDA is nixing home tests https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/fda-stops-at-home-tests.html; २४/३/२०, १:४३ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: By Easter includes next Monday.
That will be fine with me and let the states makes their own choices, as always.
Federalism.; २४/३/२०, १:४३ PM
Known Unknown म्हणाले...: What sucks for people trying to analyze testing data is that a lot of states have stopped reporting negative results.

Why?; २४/३/२०, १:४३ PM
Meade म्हणाले...: Social sadism prohibited. Please avoid engaging with sadists in these comments. Thank you.; २४/३/२०, १:४४ PM
n.n म्हणाले...: Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
- ft.com via market-ticker.org; २४/३/२०, १:४४ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: Well, find the predictions from weeks ago that match today's reality, Freeman Hunt.
Go wild and prove me wrong.
You've got this.

Find the 3-4% death rate for infections.
Let's see that.; २४/३/२०, १:४६ PM
Sebastian म्हणाले...: "Last year Flu in US
1. 35 Million cases (very few confirmed by test, almost all by symptoms)
2. 490,000 hospitalizations
3. 34,000 deaths."

Rough back-of-the-envelope calculations for the last decade for flu:

Hospitalizations/year (mean): about 446,000
Deaths/year (mean): about 37,000

Did you know that? I didn't.

Yes, Wuhan Virus seems more infectious, has nastier complications, and can produce a more overwhelming spike.

But in 2017-8 we had 810,000 hospitalizations for flu, and 61,000 deaths. Did you remember that? I didn't.

The point is not to underestimate Wuhan, but rather to put it in perspective. 446/37 is what we live with as a matter of course; 810/61 did not cause any major concern, as far as I recall. Nothing shut down. No one panicked.

And that does not even get into the proper measurement -- not "deaths" but QALYs lost, which in the case of flu is higher per fatality since it hits younger people more. At least as far as we can tell from current evidence, the distributions of flu deaths and Wuhan deaths are not the same; therefore, the impact also differs.

Precisely because the risk profile for Wuhan is marked, the obvious strategy, once we get past these few weeks of lockdown/quasi-suppression, is rigorous quarantine of identified risk groups with general behavioral adjustment, at far lower economic and therefore long-term public health cost.; २४/३/२०, १:४७ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Please avoid engaging with sadists in these comments. Thank you.

And also saboteurs and assassins.; २४/३/२०, १:४८ PM
chuck म्हणाले...: @Known Unknown

Try this site. It also provide links to the relevant state sites.; २४/३/२०, १:४९ PM
Nonapod म्हणाले...: Another interesting piece of data from the COVID tracking project is the number of hospitilizations. Currently in the US we are at 4,083 patients who tested positive for Covid-19 who are currently hospitilized. There are 3,234 hospitilized in New York, which is about 79% of the total. I think that the number of hospitilizations, and specifically the rate of new hospitilizations might be a useful metric for gauging how well were doing overall in this war.; २४/३/२०, १:४९ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: Bay Area Guy:

It was a $22 trillion dollars. I know it's just a 2. But really it is 2,000,000,000,000 that you misplaced. And that happens to be quite a lot.; २४/३/२०, १:४९ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: Ignorance is Bliss,
"I can't figure out how, mathematically, flattening the curve could possibly make things worse."

At its worst, a "flattened curve" is not as bad, but stretches the problem out over a longer period, where a spike is worse initially, but much shorter-lived.; २४/३/२०, १:५० PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: Ignorance is Bliss said...
Achilles said...

Exponential!

No need to add the factorial, the exponential is bad enough.

:)

You know if given a choice most people freaking out right now would choose factorial growth over exponential growth.

Because exponential growth is super scary.

And most people freak out and accept complete state control over their lives.

!; २४/३/२०, १:५७ PM
n.n म्हणाले...: >At its worst, a "flattened curve" is not as bad, but stretches the problem out over a longer period

Maybe not. It may also imply that a majority of the population have been infected, and developed natural immunity, but the virus will persist, albeit with less safe havens, and less social consequence.; २४/३/२०, १:५९ PM
Char Char Binks, Esq. म्हणाले...: FAKE SUNRISE!; २४/३/२०, १:५९ PM
walter म्हणाले...: I believe you mean "Expodential!"
No malarkey.; २४/३/२०, २:०८ PM
Ignorance is Bliss म्हणाले...: walter said...

The caseload shows us how fast we're finding new cases, not how fast the virus is really spreading

So don't look at cases, look at deaths, and how fast those are doubling. This should be proportional to new cases, at least until improved treatments come on line. So you would expect the death doubling rate to be the same as the case doubling rate (not the confirmed case doubling rate, which depends on testing); २४/३/२०, २:११ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: Birkel said...
Bay Area Guy:

It was a $22 trillion dollars. I know it's just a 2. But really it is 2,000,000,000,000 that you misplaced. And that happens to be quite a lot.

The government is investing in debt and empty promises.

Because the voters are demanding debt and empty promises.

I would suggest investing accordingly.

The only number that matters is productivity. That is directly related to economic freedom. That is all that matters.; २४/३/२०, २:१२ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Meade
Bit of a catch 22. Hard to know exactly who we should not be noticing. I think I know three names ...; २४/३/२०, २:१७ PM
grackle म्हणाले...: Achilles, I would pay more attention to your 1957 and 1968 assertions if provided with citations and links to where health systems all over the world were overwhelmed by regular flu.; २४/३/२०, २:२४ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Nonapod observes: I think that the number of hospitilizations, and specifically the rate of new hospitilizations might be a useful metric for gauging how well were doing overall in this war.

Yes. Deaths, in themselves, do not overwhelm the system, but hospital stays, especially in intensive care, do.; २४/३/२०, २:२५ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: Ken B said...
Meade
Bit of a catch 22. Hard to know exactly who we should not be noticing. I think I know three names ...

Say the names of who you think should be banned Ken.

Then post some more completely dishonest quotes and attributions.

Out of everyone on this board you have been the worst. You are constantly posting rephrasing of other peoples comments and attributing evil motives to people who disagree with you.; २४/३/२०, २:२५ PM
Big Mike म्हणाले...: @Meade, I may despise his politics, but I hope that proud New Yorker Robert Cook is okay.; २४/३/२०, २:२६ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: grackle said...
Achilles, I would pay more attention to your 1957 and 1968 assertions if provided with citations and links to where health systems all over the world were overwhelmed by regular flu.

I just gave you examples you asked for.

I bothered to go look up some history. You can too if you want.

Or you can take twitter and the media and the WHO and the CDC at face value.; २४/३/२०, २:२७ PM
walter म्हणाले...: Blogger Ignorance is Bliss,
FWIW, that's more accurately attributed to Sperry.
However, he writes "MSM are reporting U.S. COVID-19 cases are doubling"
How else would one count COVID-19 cases w/o test results, given symptom overlap with influenza?; २४/३/२०, २:२८ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: " look at deaths, and how fast those are doubling. This should be proportional to new cases, at least until improved treatments come on line"

We would know about deaths with or without an increase in testing, but we wouldn't be as aware of new cases. So I would expect the death vs new cases ratio to be gradually decreasing, because improved treatments should lower the number of deaths from what they would have been, and the increased new cases will be primarily due to increased awareness of new cases; २४/३/२०, २:२८ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: @Meade, I may despise his politics, but I hope that proud New Yorker Robert Cook is okay.

Big Mike, Cookie weighed in yesterday and said he was fine and he appreciates our concern.; २४/३/२०, २:२९ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: mockturtle said...
Nonapod observes: I think that the number of hospitilizations, and specifically the rate of new hospitilizations might be a useful metric for gauging how well were doing overall in this war.

Yes. Deaths, in themselves, do not overwhelm the system, but hospital stays, especially in intensive care, do.

Why are we talking about hospitalizations instead of deaths?

Why is it climate change instead of global warming?; २४/३/२०, २:३२ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: I'm sorry, Achilles, but are we keeping you away from your telecommuting and child care responsibilities with these discussions?; २४/३/२०, २:३३ PM
Meade म्हणाले...: “Bit of a catch 22. Hard to know exactly who we should not be noticing. I think I know three names ...”

Let’s try not to name names. Use your best judgment. Address text and ideas, not persons or even personas. Maintain appropriate social/psychological distance. Help, don’t spread. Thanks for your help.; २४/३/२०, २:३६ PM
Big Mike म्हणाले...: @mockturtle, good to hear. Hope he stays that way.; २४/३/२०, २:४१ PM
BarrySanders20 म्हणाले...: We all want testing to advance to the point where it was widely available, cheap, safe, and accurate. Eventually we will get there. Would also be good to develop a test with the same characteristics to detect antibodies to identify people who have already recovered and are now immune.

I suspect my daughter may have already recovered. The student next to her in a college architecture studio class (where they sit 5 hours per day, or used to anyway) is from China. She went back to visit in early February and was coughing, etc. My daughter caught it soon after and had a fever and what she described as the worst coughing attack of her life. Campus health treated it as bronchitis (but didn't know what it was) and gave her Z-pak and codeine. Could have been flu or some other upper respiratory virus but the whole thing is suspicious.

BTW, the company that was prepared to offer her a job in Nashville called her today and said they aren't hiring now and will reconsider all applicants in 6 months. She was crushed, but I reminded her that we are still pretty lucky, especially her -- she is young, healthy, smart, and pretty and the start to the career path is only delayed temporarily, not denied.; २४/३/२०, २:४५ PM
Nonapod म्हणाले...: Why are we talking about hospitalizations instead of deaths?

Because one of the main reasons that we're doing this lockdown is to do what we can to try to avoid overwhelming the existing healthcare system, which is what happened in China and is currently happening in Italy. The death rate is driectly linked to the number of hospilizations. If the system becomes overwhelmed you'll start to see a huge increase in the death rate because of finite resources meaing that older and/or infirm people are left to die.

Put another way, it's a measure of how soon things can return to normalcy.; २४/३/२०, २:४६ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: "Well, find the predictions from weeks ago that match today's reality, Freeman Hunt."

They match the predictions at my house and among mathematician friends. I'm not really a truster of journalists with mathematics. I guess you could look at the logarithmic graphs total cases and deaths in the United States to see it continuing on a predictable line.

It will be a very nice development if the heat and humidity do affect it, and we get a summer reprieve.; २४/३/२०, २:४८ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: When journalists in the U.S. first started reporting on this, it was only to say, "Be scared of the flu! Being scared of a virus in China is racist!" They're not very good.; २४/३/२०, २:५० PM
bagoh20 म्हणाले...: "Does he explain this? I can't figure out how, mathematically, flattening the curve could possibly make things worse."

I suspect the reasoning is that a flattened curve is not enough. It has to be flat AND below the threshold that overwhelms the system. If it is above that, then the flatness serves to extend the time the system stays overwhelmed and under-serving the needs of other patients. A non-flattened curve gets overwhelmed more, but lasts a shorter time, thus getting the COVID-19 cases resolved one way or the other and out of the way, letting the system support other sickness. Can't say which is really better in the long run, and it depends on who you are in the trade off.; २४/३/२०, २:५० PM
NYC JournoList म्हणाले...: My local Google News feed for NYC has three COVID related obituaries today: Lee Green, Nashom Wooden and Dezann Romain. They ranged in age from 36 to 50. Thought only the old people are dying? That is three of just ~100.; २४/३/२०, २:५० PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Achilles
You are as ever reading impaired. I don’t think anyone here should be banned. I have said so many times. I even said *you* should ot be banned. But meade has deleted banned people, and has asked us not to respond to them when they reappear. I want to respect his and Althouse’s wishes. That’s easier knowing the names.; २४/३/२०, २:५० PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: "Why are we talking about hospitalizations instead of deaths?"

Because too many hospitalizations makes people die of all kinds of things from which, under normal circumstances, they would have recovered.; २४/३/२०, २:५२ PM
Tomcc म्हणाले...: Ken B @ 1:30- "Because they had a stockpile..."
How could they (S. Korea) have stockpile, aren't the tests specific to this version of the virus?; २४/३/२०, २:५७ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: Does anyone doubt that most of the media will cherry-pick statistics at the cost of providing an accurate picture, if they can make Trump look bad?; २४/३/२०, २:५७ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: “Why are we talking about hospitalizations instead of deaths?"

That was explained in the same comment where it was suggested.

There isn’t one good way to measure a changing situation. We have several numbers we can look at. All matter and all tell us different things.
Freeman explained why this one is important.; २४/३/२०, २:५८ PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: A panicky fake news headline from Sludgereport:

"VIRUS LINGERS ON SURFACE FOR 17 DAYS"

-> links to the less inaccurate but still uninformative headline:

"Coronavirus Traces Lingered in Vacated Cruise Cabins for 17 Days"

That article doesn't itself mention RNA, which is what the "traces" consisted of.

Is chemical RNA wimpier than DNA? Asking for a friend, because:

"Even under the best preservation conditions, there is an upper boundary of 0.4–1.5 million years for a sample to contain sufficient DNA for sequencing technologies."

Let's see, uh, um, carry the million, that usable sample of DNA is about 21,470,588.235294118 times as old as the RNA on the ship.; २४/३/२०, २:५९ PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: Just sayin'.; २४/३/२०, २:५९ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Tomcc
Stockpile. You are right. I was thinking masks.; २४/३/२०, २:५९ PM
Iman म्हणाले...: “House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Panderville) just announced she has dropped procedural blockage and will allow a vote on the Senate’s version of the COVID bill instead of holding the nation hostage by demanding what some commentators called “racial and gender pay equity provisions, diversity on corporate boards, increased use of minority-owned banks by federal offices, and a grab-bag of other diversity-themed requirements.”

That’s good news.; २४/३/२०, ३:०० PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Iman
It means the Democrats ran polls.; २४/३/२०, ३:०१ PM
rehajm म्हणाले...: President Trump's Job Approval Rating Up to 49%

Pandemic Churchill; २४/३/२०, ३:०१ PM
bagoh20 म्हणाले...: "Put another way, it's a measure of how soon things can return to normalcy."

The fastest way is a shortcut through enemy territory, and politically problematic. I hate that word.; २४/३/२०, ३:०२ PM
rehajm म्हणाले...: If Nancy caves that's probably why...; २४/३/२०, ३:०३ PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: In 2007, he wrote, in my humble opinion, the single most important paper in the literature in the past 30 years:

I know and I agree - in addition to exposing info about health and bogus meds, he exposed a big-billion dollar scam.; २४/३/२०, ३:०३ PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants म्हणाले...: In you have to laugh news, I’m in line at Walmart (our county is issuing a SIP tonight and I had a few things to get) and an elderly fellow in front of me is pushing his cart while taking bites of what appears to be an unwrapped Subway sandwich. Guess he hasn’t heard the news. Bless his heart.; २४/३/२०, ३:०४ PM
JPS म्हणाले...: Nonapod,2:46:

"If the system becomes overwhelmed you'll start to see a huge increase in the death rate because of finite resources meaing that older and/or infirm people are left to die."

See also Italy, where hospitals in the worst-hit areas were overwhelmed early on, and the death rate is pushing 10%.

BarrySanders20,

I'm glad your daughter is doing OK.; २४/३/२०, ३:०४ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Interesting column - Oxford study indicates the virus has likely infected many more than thought, but that only 1 in 1000 who get the virus need hospitalization; २४/३/२०, ३:०६ PM
Jersey Fled म्हणाले...: Dr. Fauci was quoted the other day, in which I recall him saying that Italy was a hot spot, lots of cases, lots of deaths, compared to other regions, and that no one has figured out why.

Fauci said in an interview on Philadelphia radio this morning that the main problem in the case of Italy was that they did not close their borders soon enough and the contagion got out of control. He contrasted that with the US, which acted quickly and decisively to ban travel from both Asia and Europe.; २४/३/२०, ३:०६ PM
Ignorance is Bliss म्हणाले...: I prefer deaths as a metric because it is less subjective. Yes, whether or not a person is hospitalized is objective, but the decision to admit someone is subjective, and there will always be borderline cases. As a particular hospital nears capacity, there will be pressure to not hospitalize borderline cases, thus decreasing the number of hospitalizations per case, and making hospitalizations less useful as a proxy.; २४/३/२०, ३:०६ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Exh
Paywalled. Classy of the FT.; २४/३/२०, ३:०९ PM
rehajm म्हणाले...: Savannah is going SIP tomorrow. South Carolina not even considering it 'at this time'.; २४/३/२०, ३:०९ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: Italy also reports deaths differently, has a much higher percentage of elderly, higher air pollution, and greater incidence of smokers. Also cultural factors such as the hugging/kissing; २४/३/२०, ३:०९ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: "I prefer deaths as a metric because it is less subjective."

I can understand that. It's a significantly lagging indicator though.; २४/३/२०, ३:१० PM
Nonapod म्हणाले...: Thought only the old people are dying? That is three of just ~100.

I'm pretty sure nobody in authority has ever claimed that this thing only kills old people. It's true to say that the vast majority of those that have died have fallen into the category of older people (meaning >65) and in particullar older people with underlying health conditions. However younger people with underlying conditions also seem to be at a greater risk.

But, yes, there have also been a tiny minority of cases of supposedly young and healthy people who have died too. The moral of the story is that just because you're young and healthy don't assume the worst can't ever happen. There are no guarantees, only probabilities. If you're young and become infected, there's a non-zero chance that you will die. There's also a non-zero chance that you'll get hit by a bus. Call it just plain bad luck.; २४/३/२०, ३:११ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: ही टिप्पणी लेखकाना हलविली आहे.; २४/३/२०, ३:११ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: Ken B,
I was able to read it without paying anything. Here:

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.

But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.

Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.

To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.; २४/३/२०, ३:१४ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Exh
Thanks.
It’s a model, not the result of testing. I hope it’s right.; २४/३/२०, ३:१७ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: Show your work on those projections from weeks ago.
Offer a link, eh?
I do not believe you can.; २४/३/२०, ३:२० PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: So, let's take suicide.

If you like your suicide, you can keep your suicide.

Seriously though, having to wash my hands makes me feel suicidal because it reminds of my second generation traumatic childhood in an abusive orphanage.

I wonder how many more suicides, and murders, will result from all the economic damage? More than zero, I bet.; २४/३/२०, ३:२२ PM
Curious George म्हणाले...: ही टिप्पणी लेखकाना हलविली आहे.; २४/३/२०, ३:२३ PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: Why don't we hear more from the U.S. Surgeon General?

Shouldn't he have been out speachifying from the get-go?; २४/३/२०, ३:२५ PM
grackle म्हणाले...: I just gave you examples you asked for. I bothered to go look up some history. You can too if you want.

Nope. If you want me to attach any credence to your assertions/examples you’ll have to provide some links so the rest of us can check your examples for credibility.; २४/३/२०, ३:२६ PM
iowan2 म्हणाले...: Wow, Watching Nicole Wallace interview Joe Biden. It's like hanging out at the Special Olympics. Happy Happy people. Talking to each other but neither understanding a thing.; २४/३/२०, ३:२७ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: And I offer the Imperial College projections as the counter.; २४/३/२०, ३:३० PM
roesch/voltaire म्हणाले...: While we cite statics and hope for herd immunity, I think of this quote from Paulo Coelho, "Whenever someone dies a part of the universe dies too. Everything a person felt, experience and saw dies with them, like tears in the rain."Because we do value life, I think most of us would agree that in the face of death the prudent practice what is preventable.; २४/३/२०, ३:३१ PM
Maillard Reactionary म्हणाले...: Regarding packages from China (I haven't read the whole thread, maybe someone already suggested this), for something like a computer, if you're concerned open it outside, throw out the packing material and then just mop the whole thing off with Windex or something. (I said mop, not spray, right?) That should take care of anything that's exposed on the outside where your little paws can get to it. And never, under any circumstances, lick the thing. (I'm sure there's somebody here who needs to hear that.)

Actually I've never bothered to clean things from China and I've lived to tell the tale, so far. At this point, I'm sure my laptop is more of a threat to others than it is to me.; २४/३/२०, ३:३१ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: I saw the US Surgeon General in TV just this morning. And afternoon.; २४/३/२०, ३:३२ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: What prevents one death often causes many more unseen deaths.
But if you close your eyes they never happened.; २४/३/२०, ३:३३ PM
Drago म्हणाले...: r/v: "While we cite statics and hope for herd immunity, I think of this quote from Paulo Coelho, "Whenever someone dies a part of the universe dies too. Everything a person felt, experience and saw dies with them, like tears in the rain."Because we do value life, I think most of us would agree that in the face of death the prudent practice what is preventable."

Filed under: Things not said during 2009 pandemic under obama where greater than 16,000 us citizens died along with 282 children and where obama went golfing on the day he declared a national emergency.; २४/३/२०, ३:३५ PM
DanTheMan म्हणाले...: Our mayor has declared that if your company does not work from home, he will shut off your utilities and condemn your business.

No one ever asks where he gets that authority. It must be some sort of emanation and penumbra thing...; २४/३/२०, ३:३५ PM
Curious George म्हणाले...: Curious George said...
"Freeman Hunt said...
It's also interesting that it's not political in the way one might expect as the disease is more dangerous to older people (mostly Republican voters) than younger people (mostly Democrat voters.)"

That's because the disease is more economically dangerous to younger voters (mostly democrat voters) than older people (mostly Republican voters.) The economic impact of this will be devastating to younger people, who don't have the financial reserves to weather the shutdown.; २४/३/२०, ३:३६ PM
walter म्हणाले...: Ignorance is Bliss said..So you would expect the death doubling rate to be the same as the case doubling rate (not the confirmed case doubling rate, which depends on testing)

Perry: "MSM are reporting U.S. COVID-19 cases are doubling"
How else would one count COVID-19 cases w/o test results, given symptom overlap with influenza?
The term "case doubling" has to be attached to a reliable diagnosis..which with covid requires testing.

Also,
Do we have data on length of time spent in treatment re covid prior to deaths? That could influence how to determine spikes in deaths.
IOW, if treatment from onset involves weeks, it changes interpretation of the number.; २४/३/२०, ३:३७ PM
Fernandinande म्हणाले...: I saw the US Surgeon General in TV just this morning. And afternoon.

I admit I don't watch any teevee news, but hadn't seen any mention of him, at all, in the internety-news, until yesterday. Had you seen him on the TV before that? The panic has been in effect for a month or so...; २४/३/२०, ३:४० PM
Curious George म्हणाले...: "While we cite statics and hope for herd immunity, I think of this quote from Paulo Coelho, "Whenever someone dies a part of the universe dies too. Everything a person felt, experience and saw dies with them, like tears in the rain."

Sure you do. And it's a bad Hallmark card.; २४/३/२०, ३:४० PM
walter म्हणाले...: Fernandistein,
Pretty sure he was in a presser earlier on.; २४/३/२०, ३:४२ PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves म्हणाले...: CO Governor Polis loves hard core murderers. Setting them free under cover of Covid - even bettah!

18th Judicial District Attorney's Office - Colorado
22 hours ago

District Attorney George Brauchler released the following statement in response to Gov. Jared Polis commuting the sentences of Colorado’s three death-row inmates:

With a mere stroke of his pen and buried under the coverage of an urgent, global pandemic, Gov. Jared Polis wiped away three separate unanimous jury verdicts for some of the worst murderers in our state’s history. And he did it without complying with the law.

Colorado Revised Statute 16-17-102 makes clear that the g...; २४/३/२०, ३:४६ PM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Fernandistein, he has been present at most of the pressers, at least in the past week and was on the lawn for the 'town hall' event today.; २४/३/२०, ३:४६ PM
Browndog म्हणाले...: The blanket ban on elective surgeries is going to bankrupt private practice physicians and hospitals.

Hospitals being over-run is another scare tactic by the lying liars. Besides, it only takes minutes to cancel a procedure to make room for a CCP virus patient.; २४/३/२०, ३:४७ PM
Mark म्हणाले...: Trump: Wouldn't it be great if we could open up things by Easter. I hope we can.

MSM/Dems: You evil bastard!; २४/३/२०, ३:५० PM
rcocean म्हणाले...: To a certain extent deaths are a lagging indicator, since most people die AFTER Hospitalization. However, the decision to Hospitalized is subjective. And ultimately, its only the deaths that truly matter. I mean its sad that someone suffers from an illness abut if they pull through with no permanent damage, that's not as important as someone dying.

Plus, you can't cover up or inflate Dead, but you can with hospitalization.; २४/३/२०, ३:५१ PM
Mark म्हणाले...: Please don't denigrate Special Olympians by comparing them to Nicole Wallace and Joe Biden.; २४/३/२०, ३:५२ PM
rcocean म्हणाले...: Looks like Colorado is turning into California East at record speed.; २४/३/२०, ३:५२ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: I have seen the Surgeon General many times in the past month plus. But he is not saying things like:

1. We really need to get over this love affair with the fetus and start worrying about children.
2. [On masturbation:] I think that it is part of human sexuality, and perhaps it should be taught.
3. Homicide, often involving guns, is a disease that is the leading cause of death for young black men...
4. Condoms will break, but I can assure you that vows of abstinence will break more easily than condoms.

Maybe if he said these sorts of things he would attract more press.; २४/३/२०, ३:५३ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: “ Hospitals being over-run is another scare tactic by the lying liars.”

The lying liars? How about the truthful liars? What's their scare tactic? Shortage of ventilators?; २४/३/२०, ३:५४ PM
rcocean म्हणाले...: Flu/Pneumonia 56,000

Shockingly high.; २४/३/२०, ३:५६ PM
Browndog म्हणाले...: Plus, you can't cover up or inflate Dead, but you can with hospitalization.

Italy says hi.; २४/३/२०, ३:५६ PM
DanTheMan म्हणाले...: >>Maybe if he said these sorts of things he would attract more press.

But is he a fan of Eric Clapner?; २४/३/२०, ३:५७ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: A Canadian doctor practiced some evil voodoo and hooked nine patients up to a single ventilator.

Apparently the ventilator shortage can be overcome with magic.

But that doesn't make fear mongers into liars, one guesses.; २४/३/२०, ३:५८ PM
mccullough म्हणाले...: Italy is wishing Marco Polo never went to China; २४/३/२०, ३:५८ PM
n.n म्हणाले...: Thought only the old people are dying? That is three of just ~100.

Old people are at elevated risk based on physiological conditions forced by progression.

The moral of the story is that just because you're young and healthy don't assume the worst can't ever happen. There are no guarantees, only probabilities

That and there are no hidden conditions, weaknesses, vulnernabilities, which may be intrinsic, evolved, or behavioral. It's an estimate based on a distribution model, where fitness depends on complete or sufficient characterization of the system and processes. Some assumptions/assertions are worse than others, but, in this context, age, and attendant changes, are a known risk factor. That said, another strain may emerge, or coexist, and change the calculus.; २४/३/२०, ४:०० PM
walter म्हणाले...: Blogger rcocean said...
To a certain extent deaths are a lagging indicator, since most people die AFTER Hospitalization. However, the decision to Hospitalized is subjective.
--
FWIW, I was talking averages, which should mean something. Perhaps from the acute stage of ventilation.
Interest in those numbers is not a lack of empathy.; २४/३/२०, ४:०५ PM
n.n म्हणाले...: The scare tactic? A conflation of infection, disease, and mortality, for one. A social contagion that normalizes stress and trans-social behaviors. So-called "herd immunity" develops principally through infection and naturally acquired immunity.; २४/३/२०, ४:०६ PM
rehajm म्हणाले...: Trump is doing a poor job of communicating why it's important to not be in isolation for a long period of time. He's harping on 'the economy'- a nebulous thing his opponents will attack as greed. Why is he forcing people back to work? they will cry..

...instead it's important to emphasize how there are people with chronic illness stuck at home rather than getting the care they need because they've been told not to come in to the hospital. There are millions of people with lost income some of them will literally be starving after a few weeks. There are elderly outside the safety net afraid to go out...

There are trillions of dollars in lost assets combined with trillions in deficit spending- a combination lead to instability that's difficult to reverse in a short period. Depending on severity it could take a decade, if it happens at all. Not a good situation for humanity's well being...; २४/३/२०, ४:१२ PM
Browndog म्हणाले...: rehajm said...

It will be self-evident to the general population come next week.

No one demanding an extended lock down has missed a paycheck, so they'll never be convinced it does any real harm.; २४/३/२०, ४:१८ PM
Tomcc म्हणाले...: I keep puzzling over the coronavirus death rate in Italy: ~10%. New York is experiencing a spike in cases much greater than any other locale in the US. At the moment, the number of deaths is <1%.
Are we sure we're talking about the same virus?; २४/३/२०, ४:२१ PM
Browndog म्हणाले...: A short clip of Biden weighing in this morning

This guy. Are you kidding me?; २४/३/२०, ४:२२ PM
jaydub म्हणाले...: "While we cite statics and hope for herd immunity, I think of this quote from Paulo Coelho, 'Whenever someone dies a part of the universe dies too. Everything a person felt, experience and saw dies with them, like tears in the rain.' Because we do value life, I think most of us would agree that in the face of death the prudent practice what is preventable."

Unless, of course, we're talking about Planned Parenthood terminating a fetus, in which case philosophical musings regarding parts of the universe are null and void.; २४/३/२०, ४:२३ PM
Achilles म्हणाले...: Browndog said...
The blanket ban on elective surgeries is going to bankrupt private practice physicians and hospitals.

The freakers must never be made to think of the costs of their actions.

This is just a symptom of the real disease which is a population that is willing to accept state control without doing any critical thinking.

I am just glad Obama didn't think about doing this in 2009 with filibuster proof majorities.

But ten times as many people were dying and nobody cared because a democrat was president.

We don't deserve our freedom.; २४/३/२०, ४:२५ PM
Ken B म्हणाले...: Tomcc
Well there is a lot of discussion of Italy, and there are several factors probably playing a role but they have a lot of old folks and the hospitals are swamped. It’s that latter which is particularly worrying. They are not putting people over 60 on ventilators now, which means death most of the time.; २४/३/२०, ४:२९ PM
Left Bank of the Charles म्हणाले...: We are on track to surpass China and Italy in total number of confirmed cases by Saturday. The two key questions are, how high will the case number go and how many deaths will follow? Our death per confirmed case rate is now at 1.1%, compared to 4.0% for China and 9.5% for Italy. But we are at a point on the curve where deaths are resulting from the much lower numbers of confirmed cases 1 or 2 weeks ago. For the U.S., April looks to be the cruelest month. And that's the optimistic view.; २४/३/२०, ४:३१ PM
Tomcc म्हणाले...: So, if the disease is 10X more deadly in Italy, it suggests that the cohort is much more susceptible. Advanced age and pre-existing conditions, I suppose.; २४/३/२०, ४:३६ PM
Bay Area Guy म्हणाले...: Putin dons a Hazmat suit. .

Dow Jones up 2,100 today.

Saner folks are making headway. Getting close to returning to work.

Keep calm and carry on.; २४/३/२०, ४:३७ PM
Birkel म्हणाले...: Well, since the testing just got off the ground (thanks Big Government CDC!)...
Let's assume we know exactly how many people were infected weeks ago to make predictions about what must be true weeks hence...

Leftist Collectivists are not bright.; २४/३/२०, ४:३९ PM
Bay Area Guy म्हणाले...: Italy has a different problem. They had 4 straight really bad flu seasons, before this one, with 68,000 excess deaths, mostly old folks.

Source: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons).

Italy is essentially grafting this corona "epidemic" onto a previous epidemic.; २४/३/२०, ४:४३ PM
Marc in Eugene म्हणाले...: Sadists, saboteurs, assassins, and heretics. And don't forget the wreckers.; २४/३/२०, ४:४४ PM