Tweets Nate Silver.
I’m having trouble making a link to his tweet, but you can look at all the relevant polls here. Silver doesn’t offer any ideas about why Biden is holding strong. Maybe people aren’t paying so much attention to the Ukraine story.
ADDED: In related news, there’s a poll of Republicans, reported at The Hill, showing very low awareness of what Trump’s Ukraine phone call had to do with Biden.
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51 comments:
Biden isn't any of the other candidates, is why. He's the none of the above vote.
Graft and corruption at least shows he's the normal person is the field.
Biden cares for his family. That's a plus.
Here is how a poll about the impeachment inquiry should be worded.
House Speaker Pelosi has declared an "impeachment inquiry" about President Trump. The purpose of this declaration is to enable the House Democrats to obtain grand-jury testimony, tax returns, White House papers and other documents that normally are protected by privacy rules. The declaration was done by Pelosi alone, without a vote of the entire House of Representatives.
Do you support or oppose Pelosi's one-person declaration of an "impeachment inquiry" to enable her acquisition of such documents?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1178796108094545920
Maybe people aren’t paying so much attention to the Ukraine story.
Maybe they take his word it has all been thoroughly investigated.
Maybe they have no viable second choice.
Maybe Biden is the only Democrat they can name.
Maybe this is Joe’s ceiling and we’ll see the fallout as people leave the race and he can’t move up.
Maybe we’re still a couple of weeks out for the real shoe to drop on him.
He’s taken a very hard line, with no room to maneuver when new evidence emerges.
If it were causing harm you can bet Nate wouldn't be reporting it. If the poll tomorrow shows it hurting Biden you can bet Nate will find something else to talk about...
Sometimes he's forced to report bad news for Democrats. That's when he starts to dabble in the on-sciencey talkey-talk...
Apparently, the people who like Biden are like the people who like Trump: they stand by their man no matter how stupid, deceptive, or generally creepy their man is.
Of the news stories I've seen, the only time Biden is even mentioned is when the fake "Trump asked Ukraine to dig up dirt on Biden" smear is launched. They're even ignoring the damning quid pro Joe video. With all this help, it's no wonder Joe is unscathed.
I’m having trouble making a link to his tweet, but you can look at all the relevant polls here. Silver doesn’t offer any ideas about why Biden is holding strong. Maybe people aren’t paying so much attention to the Ukraine story."
More likely Democrats don't care that he is a crook as long as he can defeat Trump. The Democrat Party, as always, the party of criminals.
I don’t really have plans to vote for Biden, but I can definitely see his appeal.
Of course he's holding strong. Democrats are incapable of seeing corruption in Democrats.
Democrats are used to corruption. It is what they are all about and have been for years. Meh.
Biden is holding strong, not because of the Ukraine story doesn't have legs, but because of the fact all the other candidates suck more than Slow Joe.
The good news for Dems is that a huge story about alleged Trump corruption hasn't hurt Biden?
Youve seen all the links from steyn, from davis from stephen mcintyre all the interesting details they left out.
Miraculously, none of the bus's tires ran over Biden. When he came out the back and sat up, the people who threw him under couldn't believe it. They rushed over, helped him up and brushed him off.
Maybe they have a really good story about Biden sniffing their hair and him going out like this would ruin it.
To some extend, dems are rallying around the flag, and since the impeachment is a Trump vs. Biden thing, Biden is the flag.
Plugs would prefer we not use the term "fall out".
This one involved burisma boardmembers kwasnievski, pinchuk of the clinton foundation, and akhmetov who paid podesta and weber to lobby
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1179160879255953408.html
Is it possible for Hillary! to wait until the stupid "debates" are over with and then step in to rescue the Party by declaring herself a candidate?
but because of the fact all the other candidates suck more than Slow Joe.
Right on Allen. Lefties love taking someone else's money but first and foremost they like to keep their own money. They like Europe too but they don't want to have to flee there to keep their own money. To those lefties Biden is the only option, the one eyed king.
Biden is still the lifeline for Hillary! too...
Biden is holding strong because the alternatives are so weak.
"Silver doesn’t offer any ideas about why Biden is holding strong. Maybe people aren’t paying so much attention to the Ukraine story."
Maybe Democrats are just stupid and/or corrupt.
only democrats vote in democrat primaries
only democrats are polled about democrat primaries
Polling Question:
Does it bother you, in any way, that your party is involved in rebellion against the Union?
A) No, of Course Not! I'm Secession All The Way! I'm KEEPIN' MY DARKIES!
B) No, of Course Not! THEY started this war when they tried to resupply Fort Sumpter
C) No, of Course Not! THEY started this war when they relocated from Fort Moultrie to Fort Sumpter
D) No, of Course Not! This war will be over in less than a year. 1 Democrat can lick 10 Republicans
Kay said...
I don’t really have plans to vote for Biden, but I can definitely see his appeal.
He'd have to be convicted of something before he could appeal.
Biden is so pathetic. He will never understand he had no power (except referred by BHO) or influence (except access to BHO) -- he was soley "assassination insurance". He is and was a DOLT.
The unexplainable makes perfect sense to Killary who owns these fake polls. She wants Biden to keep the moderate's place ready for her to take it over while her team finishes rigging Bernie's loss and Lizzies's rejection by the big Dem donors. And then, surprise, surprise, Slow Joe drops out.
The lack of "Fall Out" is proof that the core of Democrat-Socialist Party is pathologically divorced from reality and the values underlying "justice" and true "patriotism".
Favorable press is probably helping Biden. After all; last week was framed by a narrative that evil orange man was digging up dirt to perpetrate a hoax on Biden. I'm sure that garnered sympathy for Biden.
I agree he is the "none of the above" candidate.
I saw the bumper sticker "Anybody else 2020." Biden voter.
Perhaps the Democrat voters are listening to the Democrat media and only hear that Trump tried to do something dirty to blameless Joe. They are watching a different movie than AA commenters.
First, polls...yawn
Second, these people want an old white guy because an old white guy can beat Trump and they know that and they hate Trump so there. It's just like why my vote for Trump 2020 is less because I'm on board with his policy than it is to continue to take a giant piss on these people...as well as to ensure his ability to find Ginsburg's replacement (which in and of itself is enough) which will create two streams of piss instead of one.
Cold. Civil. War.
All the democrat hack media outlets are proclaiming, without evidence, that Biden's son's money grubbing never happened and even if it did, so what.
Maybe because every single news story says that Biden is innocent — that there is “no evidence” for them and they are “baseless” and “debunked” and “proven to be false.” Every single story on MSNBC or CNN or in the New York tunes or Washington Posr or any of the late night TV hosts or any other mass news and commentary outlet other than Fox and Limbaugh.
Mind of a Democrat:
Sure Biden has issues that (should) matter. But if not Joe, who?
The liberals I know have not even heard that Biden might have been involved in something which indicates investigation. The media have told them that this was an effort by Trump to manufacture dirt on Biden out of nothing.
What Ukraine story involving Joe Biden? What are you talking about?
Actually the nomination process is very early and Biden is the most recognizeable name. That's all, he's a place keeper.
Why no effect on Biden as a result of these revelations? The media ignored it, so it's like it never happened, like all the other scandals during the Obama administration.
It hasn't hurt Biden because the media report it as all debunked. How is it debunked in the media's opinion? Because Biden denies it, case closed.
Biden is toast though- I think most of these polls are being rigged so badly that you can't get the truth out of them- the desired narrative of the day is that Trump is wrong about Biden, so polls won't easily be allowed to disagree with that narrative. What I watch is who shows up for the speeches given by the Democratic candidates at their campaign stops, and Warren is outdrawing Biden and Sanders 5 to 1 or more- that is your most reliable indicator- Warren's support is far more solid than any other candidate in the primary- if you show up to hear the speech, you are 10 times more likely to show up to vote.
And Kevin above is right- this total seems to be Biden's ceiling. Warren's total is probably her floor.
Silver is narrowly stuck on the polls, can't see the bigger picture. Biden is toast -- in the same way Franken was toast. Sacrificed in an effort to "get" Trump.
It's more interesting to me to see how fragile Biden looks every week. Manufactured polls can not cover the reality of a campaign stop. He is really not up to the rigors of running for president. He reminds me of Joe Paterno when he was trying to survive the child molester assistant coach scandal. He looked borderline scared and confused the entire time, just like Joe.
Late breaking crap from Nate: FiveThirtyEight has erected an 'impeachment tracker', complete with real time updates showing important timeline dates like 'News about Ukraine Scandal Snowballed'...what is the 'Ukraine scandal' exactly? This second order shit is irresponsible journalism...
Also of note...We put this together quickly, borrowing settings from our presidential approval and generic ballot trackers. We may take a deeper look later in which case the averages could change slightly. So consider these in BETA/preliminary mode for now.
That's some quality journalism going on there innit...
"ADDED: In related news, there’s a poll of Republicans, reported at The Hill, showing very low awareness of what Trump’s Ukraine phone call had to do with Biden."
Exactly right. Why don't we know anything about Ukraine considering the billions of dollars our government has been giving them? Why don't we know anything about the so called investigation into Joe and Hunter Biden's role in the corrupt Ukrainian energy company if the whole matter was thoroughly investigated, as alleged by Joe Biden?
If Democrats cared about corruption Hillary wouldn't have been their candidate in 2016.
I dunno what polls 538 is talking about.
It looks like Biden is dropping like a rock.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/463751-a-deeper-dive-into-one-poll-shows-what-americans-really-think-about-impeachment?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Here’s another take on the polls...
Did Nate Silver forget that we've known for a long time that when Democrats claim to care about corruption, they are just kidding, or more often using Alinsky's advice.
There doesn’t need to be any investigation of Biden. He is clearly guilty of keptocraticism. He owned up the threat, he has publicly lied about his knowledge of his son’s business dealings, he admitted bullying the Ukraine into firing a prosecutor. Only an idiot would not be able to read the tea leaves that as long as his son was on the board, there would be no prosecution of Burisma, a company that got so huge by the owner's former position where he was responsible for handing out gas extraction leases.
This is the United Fruit Company all over again, and the Democrats just look the other way. All of the evidence is out there already. Way more than would have been needed to convict Trump, if they had it against him.
This is the most brazen full offense defense of systematic corruption by a poltical party that I have ever seen. One thing Trump has shown is that our government is run by a criminal class enabled by useful idiots. It’s a kakistocracy. And when Biden bald faced lies about his own corruption, psychopath is the term that comes to mind.
I think we’ve moved from the phase of the race where Biden was leading and Sanders and Warren were battling for second and third to a new phase where Biden and Warren are battling for first and second.
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