Here's the Real Clear Politics picture of the last 2 weeks in the polls, showing Biden gently rising and Warren sagging after her post-debate rise....
And here's one of the stories from my Google news search that manufacture wan Elizabeth Warren "news" out of the polls: "The Latest Iowa Poll Is Good News For Elizabeth Warren And Tulsi Gabbard" (FiveThirtyEight). Yes, there was one poll that was good news for Warren. It was Iowa only (with her at 22% and Biden at 20).
I'm writing this post because it's hard to notice things that don't happen. But I noticed this — Elizabeth Warren's failure to make news — because I was so impressed by the strength of President Trump's news-making as he tossed off some remarks on his way to a meeting yesterday. Now, of course, it's always easier for a President to make news, but there Trump was just walking by going to a meeting on one subject (religious freedom) and he got out a fantastic quote making his case in the Ukraine story that the Democrats have insisted on forefronting. Nevertheless, the challengers to the President need to make their news. They need to make an impression. How can Warren hope to pick up supporters if there isn't a stream of stories about her?
I search the NYT to see the current stories that have her name, and they aren't stories about anything she said or did: "Sanders Proposes Wealth Tax, Setting Up Clash With Warren," "Democrats Want to Tax the Rich. Here’s How Those Plans Would Work (or Not)," "Bernie Sanders Proposes a Wealth Tax, Taking Aim at Billionaires," "'Way Too Extreme': Some Democrats Warn Against Moving Left," "How Similar Are Your Political Views to Those of Your Parents?/On which specific candidates, issues, policies or political theories do you agree? On which do you disagree?," "Late Night Calls Out Trump for Bringing Up Biden With Ukraine," "Biden Returns to Philadelphia for Big-Dollar Fundraiser," "Where Have We Seen This Before?/President Trump is casting Joe Biden in a familiar role," "Nancy Pelosi’s Failure to Launch/The House speaker’s hesitation on impeachment empowers a lawless president," "Democrats Increase Qualifying Thresholds for November Debate."
I got bored copying NYT headlines — not skipping anything — looking for an article that was actually about Warren. Skipping down a bit, I finally got to one that showed her making news: "Warren and Biden Join U.A.W. Picket Lines as Democrats Use Strike to Court Labor." Excerpt:
The picket line visits of two of the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination — with the third, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, planning to join striking workers in Detroit on Wednesday — illustrated the importance to Democrats of winning the support of rank-and-file union members, including those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016.
Taking her message of fighting inequality to Michigan for the fourth time since June, Ms. Warren joined a scrum of striking autoworkers, carrying a blue and white “U.A.W. on Strike” sign. As they crisscrossed the entrance to the Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Plant, where Cadillacs and Chevrolets are built, the workers chanted, “We are the union, the mighty, mighty union. U.A.W. stand strong.”
Ms. Warren criticized G.M. for closing plants while making billions of dollars in profits. “G.M. is demonstrating that it has no loyalty to the workers of America or the people of America,” she said. “Their only loyalty is to their own bottom line. And if they can save a nickel by moving a job to Mexico or to Asia or to anywhere else on this planet, they will do it.”
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meanwhile;
Rasmussen's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll now has President Trump's Approval at 53%
When your message is, I’m going to take your retirement funds” I wouldn’t want to make the news, either.
The unions are trying to make almost everyone join a union.
They’re also trying to turn us into Germany.
I can’t remember if Warren wants that, too.
If they want her to win they need to keep her from opening her mouth and showing everyone how stupid she is (GE doesn't pay taxes!). She's like an eclipse- it's dangerous to look directly at her.
Again she does better with less exposure. I’m 100% sure she’s behind the Biden Ukraine story and she’s going to sit back and watch him decline and Harris drop out.
Problem for her is she can’t stay home for the next year and when she speaks, she’s just a sober, but even angrier Hilary.
Here's two WaPo headline about Warren:
Washington Post
After a third lackluster loss, Redskins’ defense has few answers for how to fix things
Washington Post
At 0-3, it’s time to ask: What is this Redskins season even about?
The factory would be open if union monopoly in labor weren't allowed. Hire anybody who wants to work at the wage offered.
Continue to glance sideways at her. Maybe some of those mylar glasses or a pinhole in a cardboard box...
It will be interesting to see whether Elizabeth Warren will go to Ferguson, Missouri, and protest against the government's continuing failure to prosecute police officer Darren Wilson for his murder of Michael Brown.
Although a Missouri grand jury decided not to indict Wilson, another grand jury could examine the evidence, some of which might be new, and the federal government could prosecute Wilson for violating Brown's civil rights.
So far, Elizabeth Warren has merely tweeted about Wilson's murder of Brown. Warren should protest in the streets in order to be more effective.
Also, Warren might protest against the Illinois government's failure to investigate further about the racist assault on Jesse Smollet. The racist assaulters still are walking around free as birds -- unpunished for their symbolic, hateful lynching of Smollet.
The first thing I thought when I read about that strike was that the economy is now strong enough for labor to start demanding higher wages and expect to get them.
By the way Ann correctly points out Warren's little bump in the polls is fading a little but this is the modus operandi of Nate Silver. Headline the one good poll as if that's the big picture. Paint the best picture rather than critical objective analysis of everything. It's weak and why Nate deserves every critical word said about him.
"The factory would be open if union monopoly in labor weren't allowed. Hire anybody who wants to work at the wage offered.”
Picket lines are sacred writ, borders are imaginary vestiges of white supremacism. So your “hire anybody at the wages offered” is only acceptable when applied to borders.
She may not know how to make news but she sure knows how to make up news! Michael Brown being murdered for example. NYT lies are a basis for impeaching Kavanaugh!
“Their only loyalty is to their own bottom line. And if they can save a nickel by moving a job to Mexico or to Asia or to anywhere else on this planet, they will do it.”
Using the strike to court labor?
Sounds like they're playing catch-up.
Trump Has Stolen Democrats’ Playbook On Trade
This is further support for the notion that Warren set the Ukraine story in motion via Hillary's buddies (Adam Schiff, Deep State), and she is stepping back and avoiding being in the news while the DNC-Media gears up to cap her rival for her. Sure they look like they are ignoring the story, going after Trump and not Slow Joe, but that is the feint. A "whistleblower" who didn't really overhear anything is a weak basis for any story truly intending to take Trump down. Some enterprising young reporter will make a name for herself by breaking HunterGate open soon. The Deep DNC knives are out for Joe to clear him out of the way, but they are moving very slowly so as not to be noticed by Joe's cat-like reflexes.
If she wants to make news just have the media continue to rerun the Globe Story debunking her Native American heritage lie with the 1/1024th Peruvian DNA result...
I have no sympathy for GM, which I consider "Government Motors."Maybe she could picket the UAW country club where the union bosses frolic.
For four decades, the United Auto Workers has maintained a sprawling property in northern Michigan as a shrine to the ambitions of the union’s founder, Walter Reuther.
Reuther’s ashes were scattered here after his death in 1970. He is the focal point of a painting of civil rights leaders in the lobby of the education center. There is a “zodiac room” where metal and glass sculptures ring the walls, depicting the position of the planets at the time the labor leader was born in West Virginia.
Despite a three-decade decline in membership, the UAW kept up and expanded the site. It opened an 18-hole golf course during the SUV boom in 2000.
Warren now has the De Blasio vote goin' for her, which is nice.
I'm not so certain her making news would necessarily translate to higher poll numbers for her. If she really wanted to raise her poll numbers she should probably back off some of her more extreme positions.
Or maybe I'm wrong? Maybe she needs to go even more extreme?
Bernie Sanders says billionaires are immoral and their wealth needs to be confiscated, presumably until they are no longer billionaires.
So perhaps Warren should say that millionaires are immoral too? Or perhaps she should say that they not only should billionaires be reduced to millionaires, but that they should be executed? I don't know.
Warren should have chosen another unit of money than the nickel.
It has more Native American heritage than she does.
Ok, so I'm not a fan of Warren but...
There's a reasonable strategy in staying lower profile in the news leading up to Iowa and elsewhere. Usually the frontrunners early on get destroyed by poor performance, dirt dug up by their same-party opponents, etc.
Biden is Warren's biggest competitor right now. It would be smart to let Biden destroy himself and her to stay low profile right now. Her chances of helping herself are likely lower than her chances of hurting herself.
Wince said...
Warren now has the De Blasio vote goin' for her, which is nice.
Yeah, but it's the De Blasio vote, singular.
You and all of us commenting here, Ms. Althouse, are not typical voters. Warren is making news where it counts during the run up to primary season. That Iowa poll, where she took the lead, is the only news item of all the non-Biden stories about the Democratic field that actually matters. Warren will make plenty of high profile news stories when she wins Iowa. In other words, Warren has her eyes on the actual ball in this case.
Like in the old story about the tar baby, Warren is playing the part of Br'er Fox, and laying low. Doesn't mean that Br'er Rabbit (Biden) is gonna make it out of the briar patch, though.
Just to make my point- check out the photos of Warren's events and compare them to those of the other top 4 Democrats- she is outdrawing them 5 to 1 regularly, and all that by making no headlines at all for the last several weeks.
"Is Warren boring Trump supporters? Yes? Good."
Ah, I wondered when Inga would pop up again!
In any case, Inga is actually correct in a fundamental way with this pithy little comment even if it is misdirected at Althouse herself.
Nonapod wrote:
"I'm not so certain her making news would necessarily translate to higher poll numbers for her. If she really wanted to raise her poll numbers she should probably back off some of her more extreme positions."
As Biden collapses, she will probably moderate her positions to suck up as much of Biden's support as she can without alienating the further left supporters like Inga above.
Assuming, as a lot of people seem to be predicting, Biden goes down. What happens to all the hypothetically moderate Democrats who are currently supporting Biden. Is it a certainty that they'll all go to Warren? She has said some fairly extreme things.
And let's say that Warren wins the nomination. Will moderates vote for her over Trump? Do enough of these people hate Trump so much that they'd be willing to live with Warren's various hare brained schemes and the trillions in new expenditures and the commensurate taxes they would require to impliment? To me it seems unlikely, but so did a lot of things that ended up happening anyway these last few years.
Fake Injuns should not exist.
Will moderates vote for her over Trump?
I don't believe Democrats care about appealing to moderates this time around. I think they believe they can win with a coalition of NeverTrumpers, Obama's base that included all those alienated minorities who don't usually vote and illegal immigrant voters.
It might just work...
Look, the only polls on this race that really matter at the moment are the Iowa polls. After Iowa holds its caucus, then the polls in New Hampshire matter most, and so on. After the 3rd week in March, then, and only then, do the national polls really reflect anything.
Right now, national polls reflect only Joe Biden's overwhelming name recognition, but in Iowa where all the candidates are living right now and for the last 4 months, the name recognition factor is not as dominant- Iowa television stations and every local newspaper is covering this race religiously, so Iowa citizens know the names of all these candidates whereas that isn't true everywhere else other than, possibly, New Hampshire at this point.
"Will moderates vote for her over Trump? Do enough of these people hate Trump so much that they'd be willing to live with Warren's various hare brained schemes and the trillions in new expenditures and the commensurate taxes they would require to implement?"
A lot of moderates and Dems staying home in 2020.
The rest of the country will only start paying attention to the primary race after a winner is declared in Iowa. I don't have to remind people, do I, that before the Iowa caucus, Bernie Sanders trailed Clinton by truly massive percentages in nationwide polls, and yet almost won Iowa and did win New Hampshire, and went on to win several other states even though he never really had a chance to win the nomination after declining to attack Clinton's biggest vulnerability. Warren is a far more formidable Democratic candidate than Sanders ever was or will be.
A lot of moderates and Dems staying home in 2020.
That's my assumption to. But I've learned not to take anything for granted in this season of madness.
Warren is a far more formidable Democratic candidate than Sanders ever was or will be.
I agree. And I think she has at this point she has at least a 50/50 chance of eventually winning the nomination.
But I also believe that her broader appeal is somewhat limited and I can't envision how that will ever change given all the more extreme things she has said over the course of this campaign that can easily be brought up in our modern age of ubiquitous camaras and recording devices. I don't see the appeal, unless I'm completely misunderstanding the mindset of a more moderate democrat (which is not unlikely).
And one last beat on the horse:
Iowa is a caucus state- this requires a bit more work from the voter than a primary does- I strongly suspect that Biden's support in Iowa itself is a bit softer in this this type of voter than the overall poll will suggest- so if he is polling at 25-30% in a registered voter poll, then I would lop off at least 1/3 of that as his actual total that will show up. I suspect people like Warren and Sanders have much more support from actual likely caucusers.
Well, maybe I will beat on this dead horse one last comment:
Trump and Clinton both lead Iowa just before the caucuses by over 4% in 2016, and Clinton won by 0.2% and Trump lost by over 3% to Cruz- a case where name recognition in the poll turned into softer actual caucus support. You see this regularly in Iowa caucusing poll vs results.
@Alhouse, the press is helping Warren. Like Hillary before her, the more one sees of her the lower her support. Also like Hillary, she has a political tin ear, do if she did make news, it would probably be bad for her.
Nonapod,
Yes, she will find it much more difficult to tack back to the center than Clinton did in 2016 for the general election- Warren's words are recorded and will be used against her in campaign ads by Trump.
If Republicans are bored by Warren, so are persuadables. I know of at least one IRL Trump hater who thinks Warren would be a disaster and would vote for him. I can’t believe I happen to know the only one.
I think it useful to remember that, for many years, the Iowa caucuses are quite a bit more partisan than US voters. Democrats are farther left and Republicans farther right, or at least more evangelical.
Lizzie has the Hillary problem. Nobody likes her nasty personality. She comes across as the Church Lady from the Religion of Socialism pointing out the Sin of profit making and demanding that capitalists whose businesses succeed be tortured and killed.
""How Similar Are Your Political Views to Those of Your Parents?"
Very Similar. Both my parents are dead, so they now longer vote (that I'm aware of) and since 2008, neither do I.
my parents are dead, so they now longer vote (that I'm aware of)
I see your commentary there...
Tisdale's parents were registered under the Morgue Voter Law.
Warren seems to be making news one selfie at a time that results in new social media web exposure, and perhaps is one reason why she is moving up? The other is, in my opinion, Biden is an old record we don't need to play again.
Agree that Warren's best play is to remain low profile as it relates to Biden, while trying to appeal to the voters that supported candidates that are dropping out of the race. At this point she doesn't need to win over Biden voters, and the news and he himself are undermining his support.
Im going to dissent with the idea Biden is stronger opponent than Warren. I think Warren is dangerous to Trump.
Granted she is a "sober and angrier" version of Clinton. But she voices an authentic concern about the state of the economy and the state of the working and middle classes. Hillary was clearly just a grifter.
There is a lot of anger out there about loss of jobs and stagnant wages. Trump says I'll bring those jobs home and stop illegal immigration. Warren says I'm going to punish the rich and give you all free shit. That will resonate with a lot of Trump voters.
Maybe Warren could stop wearing her Mom's glasses and get some Dame Ednas. That would hit the front pages.
Warren has the same affect as doe Greta Thunberg to me - negative, disappointed with everyone around her, teetering on the edge of emotion at all times, regardless of the provocation or lack thereof.
Settle down everyone, it's Eye oh wah. That's not the US of A. Biden still has a tremendous lead according to national pols.
She's making news today.
She's now the leader in Iowa and New Hampshire polls.
As I've been saying all along, no way does today's Democrat party elect a straight, white, male.
Sorry Joe!
She should go to one of her campaign rallies dressed as Pocahontas, carrying a baby in a papoose, with a copy of pow-wow chow in her hand. That would make news.
And that's what Trump would do.....
Those charts look like global wArming charts, oh wait....
Why do you think she continues to rise in the polls? She’s not winning over Trump voters, which no one expects.
Of course. She will not win any over next year either. Her problem is that she needs to get some sane Democrats to vote for her.
That is not going to be easy, I think there are some left.
Love in the Time of Democrats -- editorial in the Times praising Warren for reading the names of murdered black transvestites and denouncing Trump for not reading their names.
Of course Warren didn't include the names of the other people murdered by the murderers of some of the black transvestites, like the two women killed by the guy in Texas who also killed one black transvestite. Nor did she name any other murder victims. She called Trump a hater for not being shamed into reading the exact names she read, but she actually picked and chose between victims of the same killer.
So maybe it's a plus that she's not getting much news coverage.
Warren says I'm going to punish the rich and give you all free shit. That will resonate with a lot of Trump voters.
I disagree. I don't believe "free stuff" will resonate with a lot of Trump voters. If that were so, they might've voted differently the first time around.
I believe that most voting adults (esp. those who chose Trump over Hillary) understand implicitly that there's no such thing as truly "free" when a politicians and the government are involved. And they at least have enough skepticism about the real utility of punishing the wealthy in order to pay for it too. Of course, younger people and the perpetually indolent and the intellectually lazy are more willing to believe in magic I guess.
That's just my impression though.
TANSTAAFL
Seriously, if some were thinking, they’d understand the connection between Obamacare with its free stuff and the rise in their premiums and out of pocket.
My relatives’ Eyes nearly bugged out of their heads this weekend when I told them that after Obamacare, our OOP went to $7Gs EACH.
It’s down to $3500 each now.
Then I snarked, “Who knew ‘free’ contraceptives and breast pumps would cost so much?”
Sorry, Warren, can you speak up? All I hear is IMPEACHMENT! static. Were you trying to say something, Warren? Oh well, good luck with your plans that will be associated with impeachment. I guess they aren't as important or useful as winning by impeachment.
Iowa and New Hampshire, when polled, are white people only. Go ahead pole South Carolina and see where she ends up, or any other states where there are sizable black people. Not to mention, go to any Indian reservation and then see what the pols say.
"Granted she is a "sober and angrier" version of Clinton. But she voices an authentic concern about the state of the economy and the state of the working and middle classes. Hillary was clearly just a grifter."
First, I think Warren is quite vulnerable to the charge of being inauthentic given her documented record of trying to pass as a professor "of color." But even if she can overcome that, even if she is still perceived as somehow "authentic," she comes across as a shrill schoolmarm. Men won't vote for her and blacks won't vote for her, just to name two important segments of the electorate. (In some ways, I actually think Hillary had more personal appeal.) Warren just doesn't have the right kind of persona to succeed as a presidential candidate. This is where Biden would excel, but he's too old and compromised at this point to capitalize on what used to be his greatest asset, his personal charm and down-to-earth nature.
Sorry, pole = pol.
... also, "sizable black people" does not mean big black people. You all knew that, didn't you?
Haven't seen today's polls but previously as Warren's numbers increased Biden's remained steady. She's not taking his supporters, she's taking Booker's and DeBlasio's and Harris's and O'Rourke's. And she needs to continue that, maybe steal some of Sanders', he's been stuck for a while.
Trump voters don't matter at all right now.
I knew that AllenS, but must admit I paused briefly when I read it and a snarky rejoinder popped up in my head. :-)
ConradBibby that was a very good analysis. I think she has a serious problem with the misuse of affirmative action. Blacks will resent that if it is pointed out repeatedly.
She also has an unpleasant speaking voice. I assume she will choose someone like Booker for VP.
I think he is a fool and she might try to reach out for someone like Deval Patrick, although both from Mass is a problem.
One from Massachusetts is a problem according to history....
I've met Deval Patrick, like Booker he is not black enough (culturally) to provide electoral benefit for Warren. If she's the nominee she'll win MA hands down - as will any Democrat - regardless of her VP choice.
She needs somebody black. I don't know what Patrick is doing now. He is just an example.
The two from the same state came up with Bush and Cheney,
She could go the full looney and name Sharpton.
Deval Patrick is mostly busy with avoiding prosecution. Warren Sharpton is a great pairing. A dimestore indian and someone who burned down a dimestore.
"Iowa and New Hampshire, when polled, are white people only. Go ahead pole South Carolina and see where she ends up, or any other states where there are sizable black people. Not to mention, go to any Indian reservation and then see what the pols say."
"She needs somebody black."
Doesn't Granny Warren have the same problem Hillary had in motivating The Base in urban areas? A lack of enthusiasm among the diverse crowd in Milwaukee is what killed Hillary's chances in WI. So, yes, the whitest, oldest, most likely to scold candidate -- the one who seems like she'd actually claim to be an Indian to get ahead -- will have trouble in any election where blacks are voting in numbers.
She can tether herself to a black VP, but who really votes for the Veep anyway? If she does, it will be someone authentic like Stacey Abrams.
No way black guys are coming out in numbers for a sour old white woman.
I don't disagree with Nonapod and ConradBiddy's arguments.
I was making a smaller point. Namely Warren would be a stronger challenge than Biden.
Her economic anger program cuts into one of Trump's biggest reason for being. She may or may not beat Trump but she would do better than Biden.
Shes a fraud though, on a personal and professional level, whereas red queen is probably only the former.
Stacey Abrams has told several donors she wants the VP position. And the really big leftist foundations are throwing cash at her. Exactly the same trajectory as Obama.
It's a good guess.
I read where some Caucasian woman recently lectured some Hong Kong protesters "Security is more important than freedom." I thought that was a story about Elizabeth Warren, but it wasn't.
She's just repeated a call for impeachment. That would be a disaster for her if it actually happened, since it would totally overshadow the Democratic nomination race, so either she doesn't really think it will happen, or she has bad political instincts.
"She needs somebody black."
Ralph Northam?
@Tom T., embrace the power of AND.
Stacey Abrams has told several donors she wants the VP position.
Bingo! That has to be it. The two of them almost make one normal size woman. Maybe 1 1/2.
BarrySanders20 said...
"Iowa and New Hampshire, when polled, are white people only. Go ahead pole South Carolina and see where she ends up, or any other states where there are sizable black people. Not to mention, go to any Indian reservation and then see what the pols say." [Quoting me]
"
"She needs somebody black."
Wait one motherfucking minute, Barry, you quoted me, at first, but then, cocksucker you added a quote as if I said: "She needs somebody black." I did not say that, prick. Those are your quotes not mine. Fuck off!
Besides the news she isn't making, sometimes when she consciously tries to make news she misfires hilariously. Two recent examples: her AOC-style Instagram video of just having a beer with the people and her DNA test results. Still, she's a giant in this field, which is more damning of the field than praising her.
Warren is a nothing. No talent, no ideas, and especially, no joy. She knows it, and it shows.
No wonder no one wants to be associated with her.
Eventually the media may be forced to cover her, once Slow Joe is carted off to the rest home, but for now, anything but that angry brow and wagging finger.
She may have been happier as a nun in the old RC Church, bitter, empty inside, taking it out on little children.
But that world is gone forever, so it has to be the voting public instead.
As the youngsters say, that's so not happening.
“Stacey Abrams has told several donors she wants the VP position. And the really big leftist foundations are throwing cash at her. Exactly the same trajectory as Obama. “
I think Abrams has a decent chance. My expectation is that Trump will seriously scare the Dems by making inroads in that constituency. She is authentic enough, angry enough, etc. I don’t know how she is going to play outside the Black community. But she could be a game changer for the Dems.
One problem is that that would be two women on the Dem ticket. As a guy, I wouldn’t trust it. Too much estrogen (ok, Warren looks like a dried up bag). Too much emotion. Do you seriously want to trust our national security to them? A lot of guys are likely to say no. And a lot of women too.
A fraudulent use of affirmative action does not look good on her resume.
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