The 538 model, which was based on publicly-available polling data, said the campaigns should target WI and MI. You didn't have to have any proprietary info to know they were important states. You just had to look at the data and not be huge dumbasses like the HRC campaign was. https://t.co/sbQgoq0gCO
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 8, 2019
८ जानेवारी, २०१९
Provoked, Nate Silver calls the Hillary 2016 campaign "huge dumbasses."
Notice the conspiracy thinking he's responding to:
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Nate Silver: "The 538 model, which was based on publicly-available polling data, said the campaigns should target WI and MI. You didn't have to have any proprietary info to know they were important states. You just had to look at the data and not be huge dumbasses like the HRC campaign was."
For some bizarre reason, LLR Chuck was "all in" on the strategy employed by Hillary and was convinced of her certain victory.
Then again, LLR Chuck is "all in" on all lefty/MSM/dem assessments and political "insights".
I love the way the New York Times' writer talks about Manafort targeting Wisconsin and Michigan like he's sold his soul to some kind of Russian voodoo witchcraft devil, rather than simply knowing Electoral College Politics 101.
I think HRC campaign is singular, not plural.
So, technically, the HRC campaign was a huge dumbass, because it failed to look at the data in Wi and Misc. It was not huge dumbasses. One could say that a huge amount of dunmbasses voted for Hillary, but that is unnecessarily caustic.
For some bizarre reason Drago has uncontrollable fixations.
Vladimir Putin always was ready to act, but first he needed crucial guidance from Donald Trump about which US states to target with Facebook ads.
Putin personally controlled superspy Carter Page, who traveled back and forth between Trump Tower and the Kremlin. When Page traveled to the Kremlin, he brought money and the crucial Facebook guidance. When Page traveled to Trump Tower, he brought photographs of Russian prostitutes urinating on hotel beds.
The FBI was trying to catch Carter Page by studying all his activities and communications, but superspy Page has remained free to travel -- to the present day.
In retrospect, Page's most important trip was when he brought to the Kremlin the guidance about buying Facebook ads that targeted Michigan and Wisconsin. Within the following few days, Facebook users in Michigan and Wisconsin were seeing many advertisements that showed Jesus arm-wrestling with Hillary Clinton.
Thus was the 2016 Presidential election decided.
Robert "The FBI Whitewasher" Mueller soon will expose the entire plot to steal the election. Mueller has obtained some nude selfies as evidence -- those were made by the Russian prostitutes as they urinated on the hotel bed in Moscow.
readering: "For some bizarre reason Drago has uncontrollable fixations"
Why are you commenting about me? Again?
Look, I get it. Your completely corrupt gal with the personality of a roadkill pelt and the brains of a sea urchin lost.
Try to get past it.
Let's face it, she thought it was going to be a cake walk.
Sense of entitlement.
ah klimnik, his business partner, who was hired from McCain's international republican institute, that part they leave out of the story,
Kremlin cutouts. These people have lost their fucking minds.
I'm always amused at the assumption that Putin and Russian intelligence understood America and state-by-state electoral politics much better than the extremely well-funded experts of the Hillary Clinton campaign. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of the should-have-been president.
I have always wanted to see the internal polling of the two camps for WI, MI, and PA. During last month of the campaign, it was obvious Trump was focusing breaking the blue wall- you just have to see where he campaigned the last 4 weeks of the race. Silver is correct- everything you needed to know was which states did Trump have to win to figure out that you campaign in OH, VA, NC, and FL- the recognized tossups- but then Trump had to find one other state from the midwest, or had to take NV and/or NH along with all those tossups.
I think Trump's internal polling did show WI, MI, and PA as closer than the public polls did, even though the very last public polls showed Clinton's lead in all of them below the reported MoE- she led them all by 2-4% is my memory. I have often thought that, perhaps, Clinton's internal polling misled her- her campaign may well have thought she was 5+% ahead in all of them. Even worse for Clinton, though, is that she wasted time and money in states like CA, TX, and GA. Dumbassery is an appropriate description of the Clinton Campaign.
Meh. Clinton didn't run a campaign, they ran a Potemkim campaign. Their candidate had boring unpleasant rallies and no one wanted to go to them. They realized early on that showing their candidate wasn't helping and they did it the minimum they could. They tried to drag her across the finish line.
Wouldn't have helped a bit to send her to WI and MI.
I also thought Trump had to win all the tossups, including VA, to win the race. Indeed, the night of the election, when I realized Trump was going lose VA (this point of realizatioin came before Clinton took the vote lead in the state), I thought he was likely to lose, and said so right here on the blog. It was a surprise to me, too, when it became clear he was going to win WI, and probably PA, too. The point is, though, that it shouldn't have been a surprise to the Clinton Campaign, and it obviously wasn't a surprise to Trump's- he worked hard to win them. It literally had nothing to do with Russians or Facebook ads. To believe otherwise basically marks you as a Pho Keane moron.
The Bergall said...
Let's face it, she thought it was going to be a cake walk.
She felt like she was owed it.
And I wouldn't necessarily put it down to dumbassery. Her campaign was loaded down with "over-educated shithead"*. Hilary being the queen of the "over-educated shitheads".
*Hat tip to the late Frank Zappa.
Nate,
Thanks for finally seeing it the way Trump's voters did. So why did you want the dumbasses to be running the country instead of the stable genius?
MikeR said: "They realized early on that showing their candidate wasn't helping and they did it the minimum they could."
I have read that Clinton's team thought it was better for her to stay out of Midwest states. Her campaigning there hurt her.
Why does everyone assume that if only Hillary went to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she would have won?
With her charisma, I think it likely she would have lost by a larger margin.
Being a huge dumbass requires first being and ass, and then being huge. Check, and check.
The Trump campaign didn't need Russian agents (or telepathy for that matter). I noticed the same thing that they had noticed:
Hillary was refusing to campaign in these Midwestern states, believing that this was her "Blue Wall" that she could always count on. Her campaign staff constantly spoke to the news media about that "blue wall." Google for "Hillary blue wall states." You'll find a zillion articles, including a specific one on Wikipedia.
Well, walls can be circumvented or breached, as the French found out in 1940 (and as Trump's supporters should realize applies to any wall on America's border too).
Trump held rally after rally in the Midwest while Hillary campaigned elsewhere.
The illegals have panzer tanks now? Holy shit!
I voted for Trump somewhat reluctantly. I had very mixed feelings. I mainly was voting against Hillary. There were things I liked about Trump, but with his background I had no idea what kind of President he'd really be. Voting for him felt like a desperate Hail Mary pass.
But one thing that made it easier for me to vote for him, and gave me some reassurance, was how hard Trump worked through the last days of the campaign. To use an old cliche, he had fire in his belly. I could not believe his focus, or his stamina. How could someone that age hold so many rallies across the country and never appear tired or burned out? To me, that is an underrated aspect of the 2016 campaign. Trump simply worked much harder for it, and demonstrated that he meant business. Hillary treated the campaign as a coronation march. Trump treated it as a hard slog in which every voter counted.
Her campaigning there hurt her.
Evergreen. Everywhere.
sinz52: "The Trump campaign didn't need Russian agents (or telepathy for that matter)."
Every single other lefty/dem/MSM'er/LLR/antifa/marxist has said just the opposite now for 2 years running.
What Andrew posted @6:54.
sinz52: "Hillary was refusing to campaign in these Midwestern states, believing that this was her "Blue Wall" that she could always count on."
There simply weren't enough LLR's to put her over the top in those 2 states.
The LLR's will do better for the dems in 2020.
sinz52: "Well, walls can be circumvented or breached, as the French found out in 1940 (and as Trump's supporters should realize applies to any wall on America's border too)"
There are apparently about 25 nations that have built or in the process of building walls/barriers to decrease illegal immigration, smuggling, human trafficking, etc.
Why oh why won't they listen to sinz52 and LLR Chuck and the drug cartels......
Even worse for Clinton, though, is that she wasted time and money in states like CA, TX, and GA. Dumbassery is an appropriate description of the Clinton Campaign.
Not to mention Arizona.
I'm surprised no one has 'Jimmy Hoffa'd Hillary. She keeps popping up and making sure everyone agrees that she should have won. I think Nate is tired of it for the simple reason that he sees how badly it will turn out in two years if the Democrats don't realize how badly they screwed up.
As Tyler Cowan said, we are seeing a rather effective Trump 2020 organization led by Democrats right now.
I would say Nate Silver has guts calling the Hillary/her campaign dumbaxxes. Nate makes his living in the prediction game. He forecast HRC to win up to and including election day. I am surprised he didn't take up golf or procuring girls for Clinton/Harvey/Menendez/Weiner.
Isn't it peculiar almost 2 years after the loss with all of the county by country break downs and polling information out there that DUMBASSES are still clinging to their bizarre theory that 100k of facebook ads and a Kremlin "cut out" somehow won the race for Trump. How fucking hard headed and stupid do you have to be?
Humperdink,
"[Silver] forecast HRC to win up to and including election day."
Sure, but didn't he give Trump something like one chance in three, for which other prognosticators on the left laughed at him for being too favorable to Trump?
I'm not a Nate Silver worshipper, but he was a lot closer to the mark than, say, the New York times. I have no problem saying Trump bet against the odds and won.
How fucking hard headed and stupid do you have to be?
Ask Howard, readering, and Trumpit.
I'm not a Nate Silver worshipper, but he was a lot closer to the mark than, say, the New York times. I have no problem saying Trump bet against the odds and won.
@JPS, I watched the state by state polling numbers evolve as the days ticked down to the election. Two phenomena convinced me that Trump had a chance: (1) Hillary Clinton's numbers were holding steady at (depending on the state) 47% to 48% in the states Trump had to win, and (2) once you threw out polls that were outliers, Trump's numbers were starting to go up. In other words, people on the fence through August, September, and October were breaking very strongly for Trump. I still thought Hillary would win, but she was manifestly not looking at a landslide.
If I had realized how much of her campaign strategy was based on a complex, unvalidated, mathematical model I would have thought more highly of Trump's chances. As a mathematician, I have learned over time to be skeptical of overly complex mathematical models -- when they fail, they fail spectacularly.
""[Silver] forecast HRC to win up to and including election day.""
Learn how probabilities work. If the 30% thing doesn't happen 30% of the time, you're doing the math wrong. If Mike Trout comes to bat, the prediction is that he'll make an out 65% of the time. So we do we act all shocked when we get a hit? Silver's projected three national elections -- 2008, 2012 and 2016. The odds have worked out fairly close to what he projected, with two going toward the more likely possibility and one going toward the less likely possibility. That's how probability works.
Your fire should be directed at the morons who gave Clinton a 99% chance of winning and pilloried silver as an obvious GOP-Koch Brothers-Illuminati plant for saying that Trump had a chance of winning. They were drunk on state-level polls and failed to account for the possibility that the polls might be wrong in several states.
And Silver is right about the HRC campaign being idiots. They were campaigning in states where she had no chance instead of securing their flank. Kellyanne correctly realized where the election would be won or lost and concentrated her resources there.
You just had to look at the data and not be huge dumbasses like the HRC campaign was.
The structural problems with the HRC campaign are laid out plainly in Shattered. In this case, most of the Clinton team never got to see the state by state breakdowns, as it was Robbie Mook who cranked out the numbers in private in his office, & then shared what he wished to share & no more with the other Clinton team members.
The first greatest cause of HRC losing the election was HRC. The second, and almost as great, cause was Robbie Mook.
@JPS. True, Silver was better than the NYTimes, but that is his sole reason for being.
Silver on Nov 8, 2016 HRC 71.4%, DJT 28.6%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver needs to step back from the trolls. He's responding to tweet idiots.
Big Mike, thanks for the interesting response; Humperdink, thanks for the chuckle:
"but that is his sole reason for being."
The Russians tricked us!
The Hillary lost butt hurt party continues apace.
“For some bizarre reason Drago has uncontrollable fixations.”
Indeed he does
i think that Hillary's failure came down to two conflicting things:
1) she was too sick to be able to campaign much; anywhere
2) the more she Did campaign, the less people liked her
When you add those two up, her decision not to campaign in the midwest made prefect sense.
Inga's having a difficult evening given Trump read out the details of a few of Ingas murdering illegal pals crimes, another dead male escort is found in the home of a major dem donor (no biggee obviously, because "democrat") and Brave Brave Brave Brave Sir Robin of Broward County is likely to be sent packing after his cowardly "lion" "sheriffs" have been found to have done everything but reload the shooters guns at Parkland, thus demolishing another media-led lefty/LLR smear campaign against law-abiding gun owners.
The good news for the lefties, one supposes, is that the human traffickers are still getting through our porous borders with those young children.
t was a bit gratifying that a lot of the responses to that insane tweet, presumably many by his followers, called him out on how stupid he is.
YoungHegelian wrote:
"The first greatest cause of HRC losing the election was HRC. The second, and almost as great, cause was Robbie Mook."
Perhaps Robert Mueller should be looking to see if Mook was a Russian agent.
Well Podesta was, maybe he took the fall.
Look, obviously the Russians are why Trump won. After all, the New York Times has clearly documented large Russian payments to people and institutions closely associated with the person who, from her insider position, tanked the 2016 Democratic presidential campaign.
For her interference in a US election as a paid Russian agent, I can only simply echo the current President: "Lock her up!"
Let's face it, she thought it was going to be a cake walk.
Sense of entitlement.
The reason Democrats still can't get over their loss in 2016 is they think they're so much more intelligent than the rest of us. It couldn't be their own stupidity and incompetence cost them the election. No, the only way Trump could be president is some sort of Rube Goldberg intervention on the part of foreign powers.
Putin must find this all outrageously funny, though he's probably disappointed Hillary didn't win after beating her like a rented mule when she ran State.
gilbar said...
i think that Hillary's failure came down to two conflicting things:
1) she was too sick to be able to campaign much; anywhere
2) the more she Did campaign, the less people liked her
When you add those two up, her decision not to campaign in the midwest made prefect sense.
A big YES to this statement.
"It couldn't be their own stupidity and incompetence cost them the election."
Well, it can't be because they were outspent, as the Clinton campaign spent almost twice as much as Trump's.
But, had Trump had outspent Clinton (instead of the other way around) you can bet the press would never ever have let up on, "Trump and Russia bought the election!!"
United Russia of Putin system work for all Russia, and peoples of Wisconsin and Michigan are know his system is to Making America Great Again! Supreme leader Putin defeat Satan woman Hillary. What a country! всем привет путин!
I vividly recall picking up the St. Paul paper one morning in October, 2016 and asking my wife the question, "guess who's coming to Eau Claire?". My wife responded "Trump?". I replied that Trump AND Pence were both coming to Eau Claire. My wife said "that's ridiculous-don't they know that Wisconsin is a blue state?"
Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the Trump campaign was seeing some polling data that apparently was not seen by the Clinton campaign.
Meanwhile, the Dems are working hard to steal the next election. They've perfected the ballot harvesting system in California, and now Virginia's governor is proposing dropping the Voter ID law.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/424184-virginia-governor-announces-bill-to-repeal-voter-photo-id-requirement
In the meantime, they have to keep any theory for losing in the airwaves apart from the "Democrats have terrible ideas that will bankrupt the economy once and for all." If the news media ever fairly covered what Obama did to the economy, and what Occasional-Cortex and Bernie are advocating, we'd have a GOP government.
Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the Trump campaign was seeing some polling data that apparently was not seen by the Clinton campaign.
It's literally impossible the Clinton campaign didn't at least know what Silver had to say.
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