"On Saturday, however, Mr. Kim abruptly announced he was retiring his signature policy, known as byungjin, or 'parallel advance.' The strategy has been at the center of his government’s propaganda and is enshrined in the charter of the governing Workers’ Party. But Mr. Kim said it was now time to adopt a 'new strategic line' and focus the nation’s resources on rebuilding its economy."
So begins "Will Kim Jong-un Trade His Nuclear Arsenal to Rebuild Economy?" (NYT).
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Ha! No, he'll only pretend to, and the willfully gullible will believe him, as they did before.
If this really happens, and I agree it is not yet a done deal, will the left give Trump any credit?
Will the Ds stop blocking Pompeo ?
I wonder. They must see the election coming but can they see how to handle this ?
It might mean having to come up with some sort of intelligent policies.
As Insty says, all the Democrats have to do is not act crazy and they can't even do that.
It would be nice if this really happened. Keeping nukes out of Kim's hands and improving the lives of North Koreans would be a good thing. Maybe North Korea could become the next Vietnam.
But you can't trust Kim.
Michael K: "If this really happens, and I agree it is not yet a done deal, will the left give Trump any credit?"
Absurd!
Even as we speak, LLR Chuck and his lefty allies are cranking up the Lets Credit Obama narrative.
In other words, will NK go straight if the rest of the world once again bribes it to do so, but this time backed up by a USA/SK/Japanese stick & China's loss of patience to go with the carrot? I'm sure DC, Seoul, Beijing, & Tokyo are full of analysts pondering that question right now.
I actually think that this time, it just might work. Why? The root reason is because the NK population now has, through smuggled media & phones & Chinese contact, some idea of how the outside world looks. Before, the population was effectively cut off from the world, but modern technology has changed that. They now know that they live in a desolate, starving shithole & that their enemies are warm & fat. The population now knows that their paradise on Earth is worse than what the poorest of the poor endure in SK.
This can't go on. The nuclear program now gives the regime a bargaining chip. If they give it up for massive aid, they can claim to the people that they stared down the enemies of the Korean people & their running dog lackeys in the South, & forced them at gun-point to give up their treasure to support the great socialist experiment of Juche.
I think NK knows they have to do something, & this may give them a face-saving way out.
Michael K said...
If this really happens, and I agree it is not yet a done deal, will the left give Trump any credit?
Stop being naive.
The left hates this country and most of the people in it.
They hate our freedom. They hate our prosperity. They hate our quality of life.
They will do everything they can to sabotage peace with North Korea. There is no space between the neocons and the democrat party.
YoungHegelian said...
In other words, will NK go straight if the rest of the world once again bribes it to do so, but this time backed up by a USA/SK/Japanese stick & China's loss of patience to go with the carrot? I'm sure DC, Seoul, Beijing, & Tokyo are full of analysts pondering that question right now.
This has nothing to do with what North Korea wants.
China will trade peace in North Korea for Trump pulling back on the trade war and allowing China to "win" the trade war.
That is the bargaining chip in play.
The gaggle of stupid analysts on the media insist that Trump has to offer Kim what he wants or this new deal in Korea will be a myth.
Trump already made the deal 4 months ago. Kim surrenders and he gets to live. Think space weapons. Kim's button no longer works.
The thermonuclear and ICBM capability targeting NYC and DC etc given to him by American traitors was. Kim's weapon. Trump shot it first. All Kim can do is obey. Meanwhile the traitors knees are knocking. Kim has flipped on them.
n Korea will want more than just the sanctions lifted, but what I am not sure. They do want a more unified Korea but in what form? At any rate this is a great opportunity for Trump and the US team to make history.
If it really happens, this is a very good thing. A lot of people are desperate to believe this will be successful, but I’d surely like to see the fine print about by whom and how the agreement will be verified.
Among the people equally desperate to see this fail are the allegedly knowledgeable foreign policy “experts” heavily invested in the Clinton-Carter approach by throwing money at North Korea every time they rattle their sabres. (I’m including folks implicitly invested in the Clinton-Carter approach from the Bush and Obama administrations.) Not to mention people who do hate Trump they’d rather see Portland disappear in a mushroom cloud rather than see him be right about something.
Sure, they've cheated before. Sure, they may not follow through. Sure, they may be bargaining for goodies again.
But if I remember correctly, in past "negotiations," the Norks made concessions after talks started, not before.
Talk about strategic change and partial nuclear stand down signal relative weakness, which is encouraging. For the moment.
I wonder what Khadify’s thoughts are on the wisdom of giving up a nuke program.
Perhaps Hillary can do a seance?
@Achilles,
China will trade peace in North Korea for Trump pulling back on the trade war and allowing China to "win" the trade war.
That is the bargaining chip in play.
No, I disagree. I think NK has gone, even from the viewpoint of the Chinese, rogue with this nuclear weapon business. One day, NK will fall, probably to re-join the two Koreas into one. That means that a Korean regime of some stripe will have nukes. Do you really think China wants a nuclear-armed Korea of any kind, even with a regime sympathetic to it, on its borders?
This sounds much more like the Libyans under Bush than the Iranians hoodwinking Obama. IMO the fat guy is scared straight.
One question I have is whether Kim is the only power in NK ? I have read that it is a warlord society with Kim at the top but with other "mouths to feed." As the character said in Godfather II, maybe they each have to "dip their beak."
Finally (at least this had not been clear to me) we can see the true contours of the Russia Trump collusion. Collusion, after all, is the situation where individuals work cooperatively together in order to achieve an outcome that is mutually beneficial. The "working together" part has been obvious -- Trump was working to defeat Hillary, and simultaneously, Russia was working to defeat Hillary. But what was the mutually beneficial outcome? Now it begins to look like the answer to this question is "elimination of the North Korean nuclear program."
So this pretty much puts a cap on the collusion story. And if (for some stupid reason) Congress fails to see this collusion as an impeachable offense, we have other more examples, such as the collusion between Trump and the governments of UK and France to bomb Syria, or the collusion between Trump and Panama to build a hotel in Panama. So let's stop arguing about whether collusion occurred, and start discussing how soon Trump can be removed from office.
I'm wondering if Kim still has any nukes to bargain with. There have been enough very carefully placed stories about a "devasting earthquake" on Kim's secret nuclear mountain underground lair to make me think Trump sent in our Special Forces to sneak in, blow up the nuke labs (and scientists therein) and sneak out again. Supposedly happened a few weeks ago, right around the time Kimmy started making nice noises. If true, RocketMan is negotiating for his survival, i.e. peace with the South and conversion to capitalism.
A few weeks ago there was the very public Xi-Kim meeting, during which Xi pointedly played up nuclear disarmament.
I think Kim received direct instructions.
The Fat Kid may be seriously ill with diabetes and there are no tenable heirs in sight for at least 15-20 years.?
He is the only one to claim having played golf just once and then scored eleven holes in one. He is not just a "normal" dictator.
And this, Thank you Donald J Trump.
"That nuclear test site is gone.
It died mysteriously last fall. The media has been less than attentive to this detail after initially reporting on it.
"A tunnel at North Korea’s nuclear test site collapsed after Pyongyang’s sixth atomic test in September, possibly killing more than 200 people, Japanese broadcaster TV Asahi said on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the situation," Reuters reported on November 1.
The report concluded, "Experts have said a series of tremors and landslides near the nuclear test base probably mean the country’s sixth and largest blast on Sept. 3 has destabilized the region, and the Punggye-ri nuclear site may not be used for much longer to test nuclear weapons."
Or maybe Navy SEALs did it in, or a Rod from God, or an earthquake. I don't care. His nuclear program is in the past tense and likely has been for some time."
http://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/04/no-nukes-is-good-nukes-in-north-korea.html#more
"A tunnel at North Korea’s nuclear test site collapsed after Pyongyang’s sixth atomic test in September, possibly killing more than 200 people, Japanese broadcaster TV Asahi said on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the situation," Reuters reported on November 1."
Rods from God? maybe.
http://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/04/no-nukes-is-good-nukes-in-north-korea.html#more
This will be mind-blowing for intelligentsia ...
Requires admitting socialism failed again
Venezuela etc.
And...
"Somehow in October, Kim Jong Un lost his nuclear capabilities. His underground nuclear facility collapsed beneath a mountain. It was like the end of a James Bond movie with Nukefinger's mountain falling down. ("No, Mister Trump, I expect you to die.")
A month later, Trump was in Asia.
Chairman Xi (he's no more a president than Hillary is, although he may be slightly less communist) treated Trump like royalty. Obama? He made Obama use the servant's entrance on Air Force One.
Trump can make your nuclear mountain collapse. Or maybe it was nature. Whatever it was, the mountain collapsed. Xi ain't risking the Trump Effect."
http://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/03/why-trump-called-kim-jong-un-rocket-man.html
"start discussing how soon Trump can be removed from office."
I guess Germany and France colluded to start World War I since they were the biggest trading partners of each other.
I have read a bit about the theory of blowing up Kim's nuke site. Hard to believe but Reagan set up the destruction of the big Soviet gas pipeline.
Michael the m,
I agree, trust but verify.
But really, what has kim said he would do and didn't? Or said he would not do and did?
John Henry
Plus this. Rods from God.
"'Tis an Air Force weapon. The technology goes back half a century to Vietnam. Steel rods were fired from airplanes into the jungle below.
From Business Insider:
The idea is like shooting bullets at a target, except instead of losing velocity as it travels, the projectile is gaining velocity and energy that will be expended on impact. They were shotgunning a large swath of jungle, raining bullet-size death at high speeds.
That's how Project Thor came to be.
Instead of hundreds of small projectiles from a few thousand feet, Thor used a large projectile from a few thousand miles above the Earth. The "rods from god" idea was a bundle of telephone-pole-size (20 feet long, 1 foot in diameter) tungsten rods, dropped from orbit, reaching a speed of up to 10 times the speed of sound.
Why tungsten? That's what we use to make the coils in incandescent lamps. The element can withstand the heat. It melts at 6192 °F, steel at 2500 °F."
http://donsurber.blogspot.com/2017/12/trump-may-have-ended-norks-nukes-program.html
This is for the record.
If US and NK achieve non-nuclear pact, then will the Nobel Committee award Trump and Kim with the Peace prize?
If not, then how can one justify that Obama got?
If yes, then will the Dems/NYT/WashPost/NPR/CNN/MSNBC freak out. Will there be a boycott of Nobels? Will some renounce their prize?
Let's start the thread in social media.
Cheers!
Etienne,
If you are calling back to crooked hilary's famous button it was, technically and legally, an "emergency stop" button. Not a reset button.
E-stop works better as a metaphor anyway.
I think President Trump pushed it last year.
John Henry
So much winning! :-)
America's Politico asked:
"If US and NK achieve non-nuclear pact, then will the Nobel Committee award Trump and Kim with the Peace prize?"
Here is my serious answer- Kim and Obama share the prize. You think I'm joking, right?
Here is my serious answer- Kim and Obama share the prize. You think I'm joking, right?
Wrong. It's the Norwegian Nobel Committee that makes the jokes.
We seem to have this notion that powerful and totalitarian regimes last forever.
Just in recent history, the Ottoman Empire, British Empire, Soviet Empire, and the 3000 year closed society of China have all gone by the wayside.
Yet, N. Korea will always be the N. Korea it has been for 60+ years?
“Do you really think China wants a nuclear-armed Korea of any kind, even with a regime sympathetic to it, on its borders?“
I think a nuclear armed Taiwan needs to be on the table.
The North Koreans have lied to every president since Truman.
Dropping steel darts from airplanes was a French idea from WWI.
Did not work that well. Planes couldn't carry enough darts and small bombs were more effective.
Some rumors out about an attempted assassination of the Saudi Crown Prince.
I don't know how steadily his crown sits, and he certainly has a horde of enemies.
Trouble in Saudi would be very bad.
Latest on Saudi is that it was a "toy drone" seen as a threat and shot down - that is, a false alarm.
Who knows, news from those parts is always uncertain.
Collapsing Tunnel = potentially big factor. But also I think the Ho guy who escaped across the DMZ and shot 6 times - because of the worms. https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/22/health/north-korea-defector-parasites-health/index.html
If lil Kim actually reads foreign press (can they shield him from it?), he would (if rational) conclude that worm story showed to rest of world just how f-ing weak NK really is in any measure outside of ability to potentially explode/deliver an a-bomb. You can't go to war and expect to win with army infested with 10-inch long worms and Hepatitis. Maybe Ho should get the peace prize if this turns out well! But I also think Trump and/or Mattis, if this works out, should get credit. At this point I am worried more about Yellowstone than NK, so that's great progress.
If any of this pans out, I suspect that Xi, Putin and Trump have colluded to keep NK as a buffer state with Fat Kim as the Communist Monarch and in return Fat Kim gives up his nuclear and ballistic missile programs. How much is going to cost the US taxpayers remains to be seen but if it works it's worth the money.
The North Koreans have lied to every president since Truman.
I know, huh? The N. Koreans, steeped in history, only began lying to American Presidents since Truman.
Kim's got to be asking himself: If I give up my nukes in return for US guarantees, how can I be sure that the US won't kill me after my nukes are gone? Look what happened to Gadaffi. I can trust Trump; he knows there'd be no profit in overthrowing me. But what if he loses the next election and Hillary is elected? I know what she did in Libya, which made no sense, but that's what she does. Part of the deal has to be that Hillary is appointed US ambassador to North Korea, so that I can keep my eye on her, you know? You know?
Kim's got to be asking himself: If I give up my nukes in return for US guarantees, how can I be sure that the US won't kill me after my nukes are gone?
How can I be sure that my own Generals won't kill me after my nukes are gone ?
Blogger Achilles said... I think a nuclear armed Taiwan needs to be on the table.
Never go full retard there Butch.
Love, Stalin
Oh my God,. After signing peace treaty Trump has to get Senate to ratify or will he pull an Iran -Obama.
Then he can collude with Kim for 2020.
Fat Kim gives up his nuclear and ballistic missile programs
I dunno. Can you really put that genie back in the bottle?
"Look what happened to Gadaffi."
Yes, that is one of the most disastrous foreign policy decisions in US history.
Bay of Pigs might be its equal.
Why tungsten? That's what we use to make the coils in incandescent lamps. The element can withstand the heat. It melts at 6192 °F, steel at 2500 °F."
It's also almost twice as dense as lead. KE = M * V squared.
There are heavier elements, but they're too expensive to use.
I dunno. Has Kim Jong Un got "woke" and smelled the kimchi in Pyongyang?
The country is or has been run as a rather vicious kleptocracy in a fashion which makes the Castro brothers envious. I mean that Fidel and Raul have put a lot of Cubans in prison and also executed them. But have they ever stood their uncle and ex mistress in front of the Cuban cabinet and had them (the uncle and the mistress) blown away with an anti-aircraft gun?
Kim Jong Un's having a half brother assassinated with a nerve agent was a nice touch--one that Vladimir Putin could no doubt appreciate.
The point is that Whoa Fat or Little Rocket Man is a very bad actor. And if the New Sheriff in Town gets him to clean up his act, that's a good thing for all concerned.
Too much doom and gloom here. It is quite likely that Kim, in the face of a mortal threat from Trump, has simply decided to give up and is looking for a way out that will save his life.
If we have to grant economic concessions to push him along towards de-nuclearization and a minimization of his military posture it will be well worth the cost.
Remember that just a few months ago we were seemingly on the verge of a nuclear confrontation which would have destroyed a great part of the Korean peninsula and possibly a fair part of our west coast, and then consider that we may soon be ending the Korean War thanks entirely to the aggressive and uncompromising attitude adopted by our Tweeter-in-chief.
Kim may be bluffing but if he is then he knows that he faces death. I don't think he's bluffing, and I know that Trump isn't. Kim knows it too.
I couldn't believe that AA wasn't writing about this yesterday, focusing instead on some Clinton story du jour or other.
"If this really happens, and I agree it is not yet a done deal, will the left give Trump any credit?"
I doubt it will break down neatly resulting in a win for a particular sub-narrative or side, but there is NO DOUBT that if this "really happens" it will reflect very well on Trump. Some say his participation merits, well, a participation trophy. I hate to say it, but it would be much more than that.
"Will the Ds stop blocking Pompeo ?" Again, I am not sure that you can break it down like some kind of math, and parcel out the goodies to this or that agenda. It will be a victory for Trump, without a doubt.
But seriously, folks, What about Stormy Daniels ?
1. China doesn't want a unified Korea. That would put the US on their doorstep.
2. Russia has increased trade with NK since the sanctions.
3. Several people in the Trump administration have stated clearly there will be no deal unless the US (not the UN) has boots on the ground to verify.
Any deal has these 4 moving parts. NK remains independent with a big influx of resources to keep them going. Russia needs to be butted out of the mix. The US needs complete verification !before! trust, and China gets something besides a NK buffer -(South Sea? Taiwan? Trade?)
China is going to want to come out a winner. Russia would love to screw the whole thing up. How much is the US willing to give? What part does SK, Japan, SE Asia play in the deal?
If this gets done at a reasonable price then Trump deserves a Nobel. I'll hold my breath.
buwaya said...
A few weeks ago there was the very public Xi-Kim meeting, during which Xi pointedly played up nuclear disarmament.
I think Kim received direct instructions.
And the question is what do the Chicoms want.
Right now they are in a trade war they can't win. That is the driver here.
@tcrosse,
But seriously, folks, What about Stormy Daniels ?
She's performing at a "gentleman's club" in Baltimore as I type this. I asked the Mrs if she wanted to drive up with me & we go see her, but she said no, for some strange reason.
Chicks. Go figure.
The Space Force has kinetic Energy weapons that do the damage of nukes but with no nuclear explosive . They are Tungston Rods fired from a Satellite at precise targets that can convert their kinetic energy into total destruction of the underground targets.
Imagine a Satellite with six of these Rods from God. We could call it the Trump-Colt Model Peacemaker.
First of all chosinv the bay of pigs as Landing site was as smart as berchtesgarden had they picked Trinidad which was the seat of the resistance, carried a insurgency in the escambray mt for some four years.
I pray North Korea gives up it's nuclear weapons and feeds it's people.
But with their track record of lying, I give it a 25 percent chance of working.
And no, I don't think Trump underestimates Kim nor believes all he says.
Trump will use Reagan's "Trust but verify".
But I still only give it a 25 percent chance of working.
Paul,
That is 25%? Up from zero? That sounds like tremendous, if unfinished, success.
One thing Trump does that too few respect is keep mutually beneficial "balls in the air" at the same time. People see each policy in the abstract and in isolation. The people with whom Trump is negotiating seem to understand that multiple levers are creating pressure along multiple fault lines.
And when people yell about each individual strategy, without appreciating the totality of what this Administration is attempting, the critics seem shortsighted and intemperate. It makes criticism seem small. It makes criticism seem incongruent with events. It makes people seem anti- without being pro-.
But I can confidently type this secure in the knowledge Trump's critics will learn nothing.
I hate it when I come across an article that doesn't allow comments. The Time's doesn't allow comments on the article Ann referenced. Why didn't the Time's allow comments on the article?
except, Michael, it could pentrate just about any attempt to bomb proof anything and penetrate very deep. This was one of the selling points. In the first Iraq war the airforce was reduced to using the barrels of old decommissioned battleships for deep bunker busters.
Hang Kim by his neck until dead, if you seek justice.
Or exile him & his to some western Chinese city for the rest of their lives if you want quick peace.
But forget about treating him as a rational leader who can be trusted in any way.
(I’m reposting this because there was an error earlier in the units shown for an intermediate computation step — final results weren’t affected though. Afterwards I’ll come back to reply to Rusty’s point above.)
Re: all the talk of “Rods from God”
E.g.:
The Space Force has kinetic Energy weapons that do the damage of nukes but with no nuclear explosive . They are Tungston Rods fired from a Satellite at precise targets that can convert their kinetic energy into total destruction of the underground targets. Imagine a Satellite with six of these Rods from God.
This is a myth — a myth promulgated by (probably) dozens of media pieces — I’ve lost count (here’s one)— but a myth nonetheless.
The fact is that a “Rod from God” would actually impact the earth with an energy yield that is far far short (less than 1/1,000th!) of (even smallish) nuclear weapons — such as the Hiroshima atomic bombing during World War II. Rather, a Rod-from-God is still well within the explosive yield of conventional bombs.
Check it out for yourself: A “Rod from God” (as described in the many media pieces which also assert that they’re “like nuclear weapons”) has these fundamental characteristics: a tungsten rod (standard density for W = 19.25 grams/cubic cm) — which is 6.1 m (20 ft.) long and 0.3 m (1 ft.) in diameter (thereby massing some 8,300 kg = 8.3 metric tons per) — which then, after falling (after being decelerated) out of (near-earth) orbit, would thereupon impact the surface of our world at a terminal velocity of (a proposed) 3.0 km/s (11,000 km/h) — or more than 6,800 miles per hour.
Applying the usual kinetic-energy formula from physics:
K = 1/2 Mv^2
= 1/2 (8.3 t) (3.0 km/s)^2
= 1/2 (8,300 kg) (3,000 m/s)^2
= 1/2 (8,300) (9,000,000) kg-m^2/s^2
= 3.735 • 10^10 joules (J) = 37.35 Gigajoules (GJ)
If one thereafter peruses compilations such as Wikipedia’s “Orders of magnitude (energy)” list, you will discover that 37 Gigajoules conveys very nearly the same energy (actually a little bit less) as one (1) “Massive Ordnance Air Blast” (MOAB; or “Mother of All Bombs”) conventional bomb (in U.S. conventional weapon inventories and whose individual yield is given as 5 • 10^10 J).
Also compare those 37 GJ resulting from one (1) “Rod of God” impacting the earth with yield of the Hiroshima atomic bomb — at some 15 kt of TNT explosive yield, the latter is equivalent to 6.3 • 10^13 J!
Which, one might note, is only about 1/30 of the yield of the larger nukes in modern nuclear powers’ inventories (the biggest Bombs yield some 1/2 megaton TNT). Hiroshima’s output, however (small for a nuclear weapon), was still some 1,700 times more energetic than any single Rod from God could do.
Under the circumstances, probably simply launching a MOAB from an aircraft onto a target would be easier and cheaper than lugging 8 tons of expensive tungsten (per Rod-from-God) into orbit only to just drop it on somebody’s head.
except, Michael, it could pentrate just about any attempt to bomb proof anything and penetrate very deep. This was one of the selling points. In the first Iraq war the airforce was reduced to using the barrels of old decommissioned battleships for deep bunker busters.
While I expect that such a Rod-from-God would penetrate conventionally hardened structures very well, and perhaps better than a MOAB could, no doubt it would still have its severe limitations. For one thing, a “Rod” could hit as only a single blow.
A Rod couldn’t (at least not without much more extensive modifications than simply throwing a solid bar of tungsten at the target) accomplish the kinds of things that a well-designed armor-penetrating warhead (e.g., a shaped-charge initial explosion to hole the armor, followed temporally by secondary charge(s) exploiting other blast architectures, which go on to destroy the critical target beyond the up-front armor. A Rod-from-God couldn’t defeat armor (and what’s back of it) in so sophisticated a fashion; it would have to do so by main force. Perhaps it can, but maybe not.
As for penetrating “just about any attempt to bomb proof anything” — no. Sure, a surface installation of just about any strength would be pulverized by a Rod (or a MOAB). Sure, there would be some depth of effective penetration.
But all a foe really needs do is just tunnel deeper. Could a Rod penetrate through 100 feet of rock? Now about 100 meters? How about 1,000 m?
It obviously is not going to be all that far down into the earth before a Rod striking above that point with its merely conventional impact energy simply isn’t going to penetrate down to there. Many countries already possess quite deep mines — so in that case they wouldn’t even have to do much new digging.
My dad’s home town of Butte, Montana, for example, has long been known as the city that’s “a mile high and a mile deep” (a mile high because of its altitude, a mile deep because that’s how far down the mines go). I would assert that no “Rod” or MOAB could penetrate and destroy very deep in such tunnel networks, if they were hardened as well as I expect they could be.
It appears that only real nukes — specially designed to be penetrating — could possibly do the job of effectively collapsing truly deep tunnel networks if that job must indeed be done.
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