Writes Glenn Reynolds.
I have 4 thoughts, from least to most frivolous:
1. Lamb's presence in the House is disruptive, and hence more Trumpian than Saccone. As Trump himself put it, Saccone would be a reliable vote for Republicans. Just another Republican. But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party. I'd like to see the Democrats challenged from within like that.
2. Trump asserted that Lamb, once elected, would turn into nothing more than a vote on the Democratic side — basically, the kind of nonentity that was Trump's characterization of Saccone. But Lamb faces another election in the fall, less than 8 months from now. He'll be monitored. He needs to prove that he didn't lie to the people in his district. He can't hide.
3. If the looks were switched, Saccone would have won. Obviously.
4. Even though the vote is too close to call, Lamb took the stage 12:45 a.m., introduced as "Congressman-elect," and he was all: "It took a little longer than we thought, but we did it!" That sent me on a memory trip back to that amazing Wisconsin year, 2011, when Scott Walker antagonists pinned their hopes on a state supreme court election. One of my favorite videos from the Wisconsin protests was, "April 5, keep hope alive, vote Kloppenburg":
On the day after the vote, with a 200 gap between Kloppenburg and Prosser, Kloppenburg — expressing elation and gratification — declared victory. Here's video, which you should watch knowing that within a day, in the re-canvassing, Prosser picked up over 7,000 more votes. The joy you see here is about something that did not happen:
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But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party. I'd like to see the Democrats challenged from within like that.
I would too. But as you say, we shall see.
What happened as a result of that 2011 election? Have there been any notable decisions that would have gone a different way?
I'm all in favor of Lamb winning. I think it is vital for this country to have two political parties that are functioning well.
I hope the Dems have learned the lesson well. Enough with the psycho-drama and enough with the flirtations with fascism. The sooner the Dems can get pulled back to the center, the better for the country.
Althouse, some of your other commenters noted that the chances of a Democrat in the House voting against his party in any dramatic way are somewhere between slim and none.
My regular antagonist "Drago" was essentially right to cite the example of Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak who represented the far rural north of Michigan (1st Congressional District), including the Upper Peninsula. Stupak was a former Michigan State Police Trooper, was pro-gun and anti-abortion. When push came to shove, Stupak accepted the Obama Administration lies about abortion funding in the affordable care act, and capitulated with one of the last House votes to pass the Affordable Care Act.
If Dems win the House, his days as a 'rebel' will be over, in my humble opinion, but if Dems lose,my bet is that Pelosi will have to go and be replaced by somebody more of a Trumpian moderate, like this guy Lamb.
PA18 district is a big Union district. Those Union guys still like Trump because they feel he has their back. They didn't feel that way about Saccone who was 'Right To Work'.
Lamb is the kind of guy the Democrats purged from their party after Obama was elected. He was on TV shooting an AR-15 during the campaign and essentially denounced Pelosi. He said he was personally opposed to abortion. Dems with views like that used to be called moderates, centrists. The center has been moved to the left so much under Obama and views like these have been so controversialized that now Lamb is practically a right winger.
"What happened as a result of that 2011 election? Have there been any notable decisions that would have gone a different way?"
The protests were over legislation that was later challenged in the court, but the liberals really needed 2 more justices, not just one.
There is no such thing as a conservative Democrat. They may get elected; but once in office, they always, always, always cave to the party vote. There is no way in hell the Democrats would countenance even a scintilla of restriction to the abortion license -- not born alive, not pain capable, not 24 weeks, no restriction. Democrats are absolutists. And their only platform is implementing the far reaches of the sexual revolution. So fly your freak flag, Conor!
"He can't hide." From all the critical media that will be reporting his every misstep. Riight.
"The sooner the Dems can get pulled back to the center," Now that's funny.
The struggle in American politics is over who gets to define the center.
The pro-tax, pro-illegal, anti-defense, pro-climate-subsidies, anti-entitlement-reform left isn't interested in "centrists" setting the agenda.
This lamb will be slaughtered soon enough. (Sorry.)
won't this district be redistricted into a more democratic one this fall? Or does the court ruling not take effect that soon.
I'm guessing that this is the last we'll see of conservative Lamb, welcome to Leftwing Lamb
" 3. If the looks were switched, Saccone would have won. Obviously."
How very Trumpy.
1) This thing is for all of 9 months;
2) Indivisible was pivotal in getting this man elected, if he really is elected. NOT a moderate/conservative Democratic organization;
3) Trump, in his speech in Pa., now wants to bring in great workers (the implication being of course that we currently do not have them). BIG change.
It's interesting to see the Democrats celebrating the victory of one of the types they have all but read out of the Party due to tendencies of moderation.
You assume, contrary to Trump, that Lamb is not a VERY good liar.
You further assume that Lamb will not have "hall passes" from the (D) Leaders on some votes.
Both are faulty assumptions, I fear.
Trump, in his speech in Pa., now wants to bring in great workers (the implication being of course that we currently do not have them). BIG change.
I don't think that most people object to the individuals in DACA so much as they do and uncontrolled southern border, and we are tired of being compared to Hitler (who was, BTW, no respecter of borders) for wanting some control over who and what comes into this country. What would make Trump like Hitler would be if he decided to invade Mexico to get more land for white people. We did that once already a couple of centuries ago, but that was land stolen from the Indians and given to Mexico by the Pope anyway. If we were to give it back, I think the Indians have the prior claim.
"But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party"
Doubt it.
Ds will say whatever they need to say to get elected, then they will march in lockstep once they're in DC.
The GOP candidate was inept and unattractive. A buffoon. Zero excuse for his candidacy.
Obviously, we can't keep the level of economic growth we are experiencing going without some legal immigration, with some, you know, actual government controls.
Another thing that would make Trump like Hitler is if he invaded Canada as a kindred race, to increase our "national greatness" and fulfill our destiny. I don't see many signs of that either.
But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party
Lamb is a temporary place holder at the bottom of the Representative food chain. His victory will be milked for the optics by the left but his chances to actually change anything within the Democratic Party are nill. Remember there's still a strong push for a Madison-approved Bernie candidate for President- probably Bernie.
Imagine if the 'next in line' theory of nominations holds true...
I'd worry about a guy like this to the point that I would never vote for him. All to often they "grow" in office as part of their Potomac Fever and begin to "reassess" their earlier positions.
This guy strikes me as a wolf wearing sheep's wool. Never trust anyone who associates with the Democrat Party. Never.
The sooner the Dems can get pulled back to the center, the better for the country.
I think that the only thing that will do that is a big loss for the Democratic Socialist Party we have now.
Rahm Emmanuel took Congress in 2006 with this kind of candidate but that was 12 years, and an Obama, ago.
We'll see.
The Senate is more important and McConnell gave us another D Senator with his machinations with Strange.
Does anyone know who Lamb will be forced to run against in the redrawn district? I never found that out.
Conservative Democrats are a memory of times gone by. That was the only Party in Georgia until the late 1980s. The last one finally died out when Zell Miller ( also a Marine Corps product) retired. Until then, the good guys were the straight shooters and the bad guys were the crooks, and both were Conservative Democrats fighting it out in the Primary Run-off in August. It's a Scots-Irish thing.
Makes me wonder how much the Tillerson firing affected the vote for Saconne. That is, if Trump had just sat on his hands for another week until after the election, would it have mattered in this election? Perhaps not, but it suggests Trump's indifference to how his behavior might influence these things.
@Althouse: "Lamb's presence in the House is disruptive" Huh?
GOP holds a majority and controls business, for now. Lamb will have no impact. Dems are solidly left and won't tolerate disruption in the ranks--a few tactical freebies for the rookie, maybe, but no more.
from the WSJ
Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court last month redrew the state’s congressional districts, placing the homes of both Messrs. Lamb and Saccone into different districts for the November elections.
Lamb needs to shit on Pelosi for 8 months. Slap around some lobbyists like Eric Cantor and Boehner.
Take digs at Clinton, W and Obama for getting paid to give speeches to a bunch of wealthy assholes. Verbal lap dances basically.
Michael K pontificated...
We'll see.
I glad someone pointed that out since the idea is too obvious to notice unless you're old and liable to drop dead at any minute.
Fist, the court confused the shit out of voters with with where to vote.
Second, we won't know who won the election till March 20th when the absentee votes, provisional votes and military votes are counted.
The district, PA-18, was the airplane I learned to fly in and soloed, at age 16. Too young to drive. Bicycled to the airport.
The GOP needs to find better candidates.
But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party. I'd like to see the Democrats challenged from within like that.
This isn't a fact. It's far more likely Lamb shares the extremist views of most politically active Democrats but is smart enough to hide them and let the media defend him. In which case he's still emulating a recent President, just not Trump.
"I glad someone pointed that out since the idea is too obvious to notice unless you're old and liable to drop dead at any minute."
The stalker makes less sense than usual.
Is she implying I'm old ?
How about a race ?
Conor Lamb is a millennial.
Due to the age of Congress, eldest in history, it is due for a generational change. Lamb may be part of that.
New elections coming up in November with new districts. Wouldn't be surprised if both Lamb and Saccone are both part of the Jan 2019 Congress.
Take digs at Clinton, W and Obama for getting paid to give speeches to a bunch of wealthy assholes. Verbal lap dances basically.
That might get him two or three self inflicted gunshot wounds in the back .
Nobody messes with Hillary.
She is like Harry Cohn, the head of Columbia Studios.
Someone who attended his funeral said he went just "to make sure the sonofabitch is dead."
He’ll be like every democrat who voted against the tax bill - meaning every one of them. Lock step time young man.
Lamb was the Candidate who was running against the established Power Structure in a very Trumpian way. But this is spun as an anti-Trump vote -- when Lamb explicitly was running against Pelosi.
Interesting times.
Lamb may call himself a 'conservative' Democrat but he is pro-abortion because, well, Democrats. And 'Dickin' rightly observes, "The GOP needs to find better candidates."
If Lamb opposes Pelosi, nothing he proposes will ever be voted on anywhere as long as Pelosi is majority leader.
I would like to add to this discussion that "Kloppenburg" sounds like the German word for the pungent, moundy pancakes left in the road by passing horses.
Hagar suggests: If Lamb opposes Pelosi, nothing he proposes will ever be voted on anywhere as long as Pelosi is majority leader.
Right. The swamps of both parties need draining before any meaningful change can occur.
Pelosi is fundraiser extraordinaire for the Democratic Party and isn't going anywhere any time soon.
If Trump had depended on campaign funds from the GOP he would never have been elected.
"I'd like to see the Democrats challenged from within like that."
Wouldn't brain cancer be more effective?
2018 is looking like a replay of 2006, when general dissatisfaction with a Republican President and congress, and Democratic recruitment (by Rahm Emanuel) of attractive candidates of ambiguous ideology, led them to take over Congress and set the stage for solidifying those gains and taking the presidency in 2008.
And then we learned that these so-called independent "Blue Dog Democrats" were either lying or couldn't stand the pressure as they all collapsed into the extremely liberal national Democratic Party agenda, passed Obamacare and Dodd-Frank on party-line votes, and most were defeated in 2010 (Congressmen) and 2014 (Senators elected in 2008) when people realized they had been lied to.
Remember Bart Stupak? Neither does anyone else, but you can google him.
"The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history."--George Santayana.
Saccone is/was not an appealing candidate compared to the young, fresh face of Lamb, but I can just about guarantee that if Lamb wins and then wins a full term in November, it will be amazing how he accommodates himself to the overall Democratic Party agenda on anything that really matters and his vote is important, no matter how far left he has to move.
Anyone else remember how conservative Obama sounded in his keynote speech at the 2004 DNC convention?
Oh, he's personally against abortion? Where have I heard that one before?
He's pro gun? Somehow I think we will hear the words "common sense" in regards to gun reform laws sooner rather than later. Something like, "I'm pro second amendment. I was am a marine. I've used all sorts of guns in my life. But we need common sense gun reform."
Democrats aren't pro life and pro 2nd amendment in the same way Republicans are.
What they really mean when they say these things is, elect me because I believe exactly what you believe, whatever that is.
@Bob Boyd, either you're wrong about Sacccone being "Right to Work," or the Pennsylvania GOP is dumber than a stack of bricks. You don't run a Right to Work candidate in a union area.
I agree with those upthread who think Lamb will vote conservatively until after he's reelected in November (assuming he gets reelected), then "evolve."
led them to take over Congress and set the stage for solidifying those gains and taking the presidency in 2008.
The 2006 election led directly to the 2008 crash.
Bush, far too late, saw (or underlings saw) trouble coming with "liar loans" and the MBS scandal but Barney Frank, now a chairman of the relevant committee, said "Let's let this go on a while longer" and refused to rein in the CRA or the Fannie Freddie combo.
Here is more on the Democrats actions in 2003 and later.
''These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis. The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.''
Barney in 2003 as the train headed for the open switch.
"If Trump had depended on campaign funds from the GOP he would never have been elected."
Bingo !
Why, for all his faults, people like Beldar are dead wrong.
Lamb will ba another Manchin who talks a good game but is a reliable Dem on every critical vote.
Just so much MSM hype! How much money did the Dems drop in this election for a seat which will last a whole 8 months? Wow, talking about rolling the dice in Vegas? Politics is truly a profession for idiots.
The beta male left is knowing at their cuticles.
Tim in Vermont said:
"...we are tired of being compared to Hitler (who was, BTW, no respecter of borders) for wanting some control over who and what comes into this country."
Thank you for mentioning "what comes into this country".
We should not just be concerned about the unidentified criminals, terrorists and gang members that cross our southern border. We should also be concerned about the drugs, crime, weapons and diseases they bring here.
Is there anyone who shares my concern about having 10+ million people in the US about whom we know nothing, not even their names?
Big Mike said...
@Bob Boyd, either you're wrong about Saccone being "Right to Work," or the Pennsylvania GOP is dumber than a stack of bricks. You don't run a Right to Work candidate in a union area.
It was the latter. Saccone wasn't the right candidate for the District. My point is, I don't think this race is a reliable indicator for how things will go in the midterms. Having said that, Saccone may still be the winner, but it shouldn't have been this close.
"Why, for all his faults, people like Beldar are dead wrong."
Beldar is a great voice, a great blogger and used to post here, but, alas, like many smart folks, he botched it with Trump. Just couldn't see the bigger picture. Hope he returns, though.
As for Lamb, to be blunt, he's my type of guy. A Blue-Dog Dem from Pennsylvania. I like those guys.
Ever see the opening wedding scene in The Deer Hunter? Those types.
But, the Democrat Party, on the whole, is a corrupt organization. At some point, Nancy's gonna say, follow my lead, Lamb, or we cut you off. Unless he has the means to self-fund, likely he will meekly follow Nancy.
That's what Lambs do.
Oh, he's personally against abortion?
Meaning he'll vote to keep it legal and to extend Planned Parenthood's federal funding until the end of time, but he's not going to have an abortion himself, personally. (Hell, by November a male Democrat who vows he'd never have an abortion himself may be considered a right-wing extremist.)
I can hear the campaign ads already.
Nancy had a little lamb
dependent on her dough
and everywhere that Nancy went
Her Lamb was sure to go.
"But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party. I'd like to see the Democrats challenged from within like that."
-- I'll believe it when I see it.
If Lamb opposes Pelosi, nothing he proposes will ever be voted on anywhere as long as Pelosi is majority leader.
Sorry; brainfart. Revise to read" ... retains support by a majority of her caucus," or something like that. Anyway, as long as she is above ground and has a gavel in her hand.
Beldar is a great voice, a great blogger and used to post here, but, alas, like many smart folks, he botched it with Trump. Just couldn't see the bigger picture. Hope he returns, though.
I used to read his blog, too, but they collect over at Patterico and tell each other how awful Trump is.
There was some guy writing at USA Today yesterday, another LLR, writing about how he will vote for Democrats.
I think it tells us why nothing ever got done after the 1994 election.
At least once Gingrich was gone.
@Michael K,
The "Conservative" Never-Trumpers remind me of those stories, where they find an 84-year old Japanese soldier, living in the jungle on an obscure Pacific Island, manning his post, reciting his General Orders, unaware that his country lost and surrendered 70 years ago.
The "Conservative" Never-Trumpers remind me of those stories, where they find an 84-year old Japanese soldier, living in the jungle on an obscure Pacific Island, manning his post, reciting his General Orders, unaware that his country lost and surrendered 70 years ago.
And Never-Trumpers are reinforced by their TDS comrades so reality is even slower to penetrate.
With Democrats like Lamb the Democratic Party controlled Congress for much of the twentieth century, but there's no indication going forward that the progressive wing of the party will tolerate ideological heterodoxy.
Lamb did nothing that wasn't seen in 2006, too- Democrats running right of center. The problem, though, is that they never govern from there in D.C., and lose the elections after a term or two.
I have been predicting since the middle of last year that the Republicans are going to lose the House majority this coming Fall- much of it is the party's fault, too, for not governing the way they ran in the last 4 House elections. What you saw last night was a failure to turn out voters for Saccone- this is always a problem in a mid-term election for the party in power, but the Republicans in Congress have made the problem worse as the last year has gone on. I think the Senate is at risk, too.
"3. If the looks were switched, Saccone would have won. Obviously."
Yes, this was no Sophie's Choice; it was easy peasy. If your obstetrician told you that had to remove the "less viable" of three implanted fetuses from the womb, and one looked like Saccone, she would clearly sack Saccone. Wouldn't you? There's a song about Conor Lamb's landslide victory over Saccone, the goat:
I know a ditty, nutty as a fruitcake
Goofy as a goon and silly as a loon
Some call it pretty, others call it crazy
But they all sing this tune:
Mairzy doats And dozy doats
And liddle lamzy divey
A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you?
Yes! Mairzy doats And Dozy Doats
And liddle lamzy divey
A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you?
If the words sound queer and funny to your ear,
A little bit jumbled and jivey,
Sing "Mares eat oats and does eat oats
And little lambs eat ivy"
Oh! mairzy doats and dozy doats
And liddle lamzy divey
A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you - oo?
A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you?
The GOP betrayed those of us who consider Trump 'our guy in Washington' and would like to think we have a short memory. Have they learned anything?
Here in AZ where Sen. Flake is persona non grata and knows it, therefore is not running again, it will be telling whether Kelli Ward, a Trump supporter, or Martha McSally, who refused to endorse him, will get the GOP nomination.
Both parties clearly need reform. Both are corrupt.
There is no such thing as a conservative Democrat. They may get elected; but once in office, they always, always, always cave to the party vote.
Bob Casey is a good PA example: Claims to be pro-life, but has voted in lockstep with Dems on everything abortion-related, including Obamacare provisions, defunding Planned Parenthood, etc., etc.
Blogger Trumpit said...
"3. If the looks were switched, Saccone would have won. Obviously."
Yes, this was no Sophie's Choice; it was easy peasy. If your obstetrician told you that had to remove the "less viable" of three implanted fetuses from the womb, and one looked like Saccone, she would clearly sack Saccone. Wouldn't you?
Good drugs, Trumpie. Erm, what did Saccone look like 30 years ago? Maybe the decision wouldn't be so clear cut if they were both showed to advantage.
Here in CA, Trump and mockturtle are personae non gratae. We wish the good Lord would call them home. The bible refers to these two plagues as "Monsters of the Muck," i.e., Dwellers of the deep water drifted into the upper tide - monsters of the muck at the Nile bottom, turtles, huge crawfish, water-newts, spotted snakes, curious ...
Althouse writes:
1. Lamb's presence in the House is disruptive, and hence more Trumpian than Saccone. As Trump himself put it, Saccone would be a reliable vote for Republicans. Just another Republican. But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party. I'd like to see the Democrats challenged from within like that.
2. Trump asserted that Lamb, once elected, would turn into nothing more than a vote on the Democratic side — basically, the kind of nonentity that was Trump's characterization of Saccone. But Lamb faces another election in the fall, less than 8 months from now. He'll be monitored. He needs to prove that he didn't lie to the people in his district. He can't hide.
Sorry, but you are wrong, and gilbar is right when he said...
won't this district be redistricted into a more democratic one this fall? Or does the court ruling not take effect that soon.
He's running in a more left-wing district in the fall. And if he won on Tuesday, then the House GOP leadership will be happy to force him, and other House Dems, take lots of votes they won't want to take.
And Trump's right, Lamb will be a lock-step voter for the Left whenever it matters. Because that's what Democrats do.
But Lamb is a force for change within the Democratic Party.
Gulled again but keep hoping. Another quote that brought a smile:
The sooner the Dems can get pulled back to the center, the better for the country.
Lamb ran as a “conservative” Democrat but will vote like any other standard Democrat pol once he is in Congress.
The next quote has the benefit of history:
Rahm Emmanuel took Congress in 2006 with this kind of candidate but that was 12 years, and an Obama, ago.
Yes indeed. The next quote goes into some detail:
2018 is looking like a replay of 2006, when general dissatisfaction with a Republican President and congress, and Democratic recruitment (by Rahm Emanuel) of attractive candidates of ambiguous ideology, led them to take over Congress and set the stage for solidifying those gains and taking the presidency in 2008.
Bingo! Present your card to the podium and claim your prize. The next comment gets grackle’s Grand Prize!
Nancy had a little lamb
dependent on her dough
and everywhere that Nancy went
Her Lamb was sure to go.
Anybody who moves the Democrats away from the extreme left flank - that currently dominates their party - is a good thing.
But we've seen this before. They were the Blue Dog Democrats during the W. Bush years. And they're either now extinct or secretly voting for Trump.
Adolescent women of all ages voted for the pretty boy. It has no political significance other than that The Stupid Party needs better looking candidates.
It’s the same dynamic the gave males a two-to-one edge over females on American Idol - except real adolescents.
George Clooney would win the Presidency tomorrow with ease.
Somewhere along the way, Trumpsters ignore that Trump didn't give a speech in support of Rick Saccone - he gave a typical "I am the greatest president" speech complete with expletives and declarations as to how smart he is. Marketing professor William T. Kelly at Warton disagreed many years ago, declaring: “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddamn student I ever had." Rex Tillerson called Trump a "f*cking moron" and you see what that got him. But I guess that big-ego folks, especially Donald, cannot handle truth.
@gadfly: “... Trumpsters ignore ...”; “... dumbest goddamn student...”; “... fucking moron....”
Never Trumpers alway make stuff up about “Trumpsters” and gobble confirmation bias.
Trumpsters aren’t ignoring anything. It’s the Nevers who attach great political significance to Saccone’s loss. As Althouse pointed out, if Saccone looked like Lamb, he’d have won, regardless of any speech by Trump.
A college professor disparaged Trump? Really? An anonymous source claimed Tillerson called Trump a “moron” months ago. Really?Nothing happened, but the Nevers cant stop talking about it.
BTW, it’s Wharton, not Wharton.
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