Writes Shikha Dalmia in Reason.
(I've got exactly the tag for this one: what Trump did to the GOP.)
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२१६ टिप्पण्या:
216 पैकी 1 – 200 नवीन› नवीनतम»Thapki Pyaar Ki
This is thread is for Chuck, hope he turns up.
"Trump is radically transforming the GOP. Who would have thought that the party would have caved on its core issues without even a fight."
Well, you people voted for him and the GOP was/is cowardly. Now you'll get what you deserve, unfortunately so will the rest of us.
5. Remember professional ethics.
When political leaders set a negative example, professional commitments to just practice become more important. It is hard to subvert a rule-of-law state without lawyers, or to hold show trials without judges. Authoritarians need obedient civil servants, and concentration camp directors seek businessmen interested in cheap labor.
-- Timothy Snyder. On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons for the Twentieth Century. Penguin Random House LLC. New York, 2017.
Hard to say anything has been "!!radically transformed!!" yet. I thought almost all politicians were of the "these are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others" stripe. The R's are superficially going along with the way the winds seem to be blowing today.
On a side note, it's always struck me as comic when a non-member of a party or organization scolds the party for not holding true to its alleged core beliefs. Or, as one of the commenters at the link says, "What is so ridiculous about Shikha's article is that she pretends that lack of principle and failure to deliver on small government represents a change for the GOP and blames Trump for it. It's obvious Shikha hates Trump because he doesn't fall into line with her faux-libertarian progressive world view, that's all."
The one big thing underlying Dalmia's anger is H1b.
The rest of her complaints are overstated or well within the traditional Republican policy range.
H1b has been terribly abused, to the point that it is difficult for even entirely proper cases (exceptionally qualified personnel unavailable in the US) to be accepted, if your business has no "pull", as outsourcing operators grab all the slots and fill them with people who simply replace already available American workers with below-market indentured workers.
This has been abused to such a degree that a very great deal of money is involved, leading to a very well-funded opposition to reform (as we see Dalmia largely makes her living as a mouthpiece on this front).
tl;dr
The author comes across as severally butthurt.
AReasonableMan said...This is thread is for Chuck, hope he turns up.
See my previous comment.
Under Trump, the GOP has become the party of unrepentant restrictionism, even when this clashes with the free market and competition — things the party allegedly believes in.
Yes, because utterly uncontrolled immigration, and the abrogration of national borders has always been a bedrock of conservative thought!
On trade, yes, I have changed my mind, but had changed it before Trump came along.
So one would think that when President Trump vacuously declared to Fox News' Bill O'Reilly that there is no moral difference between American and Russian foreign policy conduct, conservatives would be horrified ... right?
That was before Libya and Syria.
There is no doubt that the country has shifted a little left, which happened because the Democrats kicked one of their core constituencies to the curb, but forgot that they still were allowed to vote.
H1b has been terribly abused, to the point that it is difficult for even entirely proper cases (exceptionally qualified personnel unavailable in the US) to be accepted, if your business has no "pull", as outsourcing operators grab all the slots and fill them with people who simply replace already available American workers with below-market indentured workers.
If you believed the Democrats marketing brochures, I am sure you would be mystified as to why the tech bazillionaires, almost to a man, back the Democrats. They Democrats offer these people what they desperately want, policy levers that can be controlled by money.
...erode the GOP's core conservative commitments and hollow out the party's soul. The "blasé" maintain that cooler heads among party stalwarts, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan, will change and temper Trump and make him appreciate the GOP's commitments...
How much of a naïf, or a tool, or a naïve tool, do you have to be to write these sentences? "Hollow out the party's soul". Lol. "The GOP's commitments". Yes, do tell us what the "GOP's commitments" might be, Ms. Dalmia, and to whom they are committed.
You think that people who spent months and months wailing about how Trump was not a "true conservative(tm)", would have figured out that Trump is not a "true conservative(tm)", and that he did not get elected because everybody (including conservatives) loved and trusted "true conservatives(tm)".
There is no doubt that the country has shifted a little left
Tim, has it not shifted far to the left in highly influential areas, e.g. cultural institutions such as education (at all levels), entertainment industry, etc?
This column is filed under "Why I am not a Big L Libertarian."
The H1b visa program has been terribly abused. It has nothing to do with "legal immigration" as those holders are indentured servants who will be sent back if they lose the low paid job they have.
tim in Vermont wrote: There is no doubt that the country has shifted a little left, which happened because the Democrats kicked one of their core constituencies to the curb, but forgot that they still were allowed to vote.
Yes, that happened. But the real reason the Dems changed politics was because they adopted that Super delegate voting structure. This effectively quashed the Sanders insurrection. If Republicans had had such a policy in place, there would have been no Republican Trump but rather a third party effort. This would have resulted in another Clinton victory. I think Hillary was counting on it.
Re Timothy Snyder, quoted above: His book "Bloodlands" is, along with Paul Johnson's "Modern Times," necessary reading for anyone who doubts the capacity for evil of collectivist leftist/social ideologies (including Facism/Nazism).
Moreover, I think the increased polarity of the American electorate is due simply to the gerrymandering and creation of safe seats. Safe seats mean that politicians get to evolve into quasi-extremists w/o any real electoral accountability. It occurs on the right but more on the left.
Dalmia has spent time comparing immigration law to the Fugitive Slave Law and defending the Berkeley riots. Her fears tend to be overblown.
Nobody is asking to kill H1B visas but to reform it so it ain't used to just replace domestic workers, which is happening a lot. After her magazine has spent considerable effort confusing legal and illegal immigration, their fears are meaningless.
social = socialist
I would love to hear how free-traders are going to solve the trade imbalance with China, for example. If you want a low cost barn, you can buy one of those shipping containers used to import Chinese goods, for about 2 grand, I hear. Guess what, those containers are not going back to China filled with American goods!
I wonder if their plan is to put all of those workers who used to find satisfaction and pride in making stuff to work cleaning bedpans! Guess what? It is! I suppose it is better than putting them all on the dole, or lining them up and shooting them! Hey! Put them on the dole and they shoot themselves! Kind of like "self deportation."
Are the Republican politicians the GOP? Or are the people who usually vote Republican the GOP?
I don't think the first one has changed. They go along with whatever they think will get them elected.
The voters changed, they got tired of going along. Trump was the result of the change, not the cause.
I tried reading the article, but with my response to practically every sentence being "huh??" I stopped. The reason for the "huh??" would seem to be the totally wrong, 180-degree opposite from reality premise that the Republican Party was before the election a committed, principled conservative party.
Anyone who has ever been authentically conservative knows, on the other hand, that the party is filled with and headed by a bunch of spineless worms whose only goal is to be elected and maintain a majority in Congress for the sole purpose of having a majority in Congress and that any campaign promises or any votes on issues are purely gimmicks to fool people. And they think that because they are an elected majority that voters love them when, in fact, voters despise them all and only voted for these weasels because, incredible enough, the liberal and progressive Dems are even worse.
But the real reason the Dems changed politics was because they adopted that Super delegate voting structure. This effectively quashed the Sanders insurrection.
Right, they kicked 'em to the curb.
Writes Shikha Dalmia in Reason.
She's horrible. Don't read it.
Mark said...
I tried reading the article, but with my response to practically every sentence being "huh??" I stopped.
Sounds about right.
But the real reason the Dems changed politics was because they adopted that Super delegate voting structure. This effectively quashed the Sanders insurrection.
Might be one of those times where "squashed" is the better word choice. :^)
Geez Roughcoat, are you saying that the right-wing has given up on Nazism's belief in physical perfection and a hatred for foreigners or fascism's belief in subverting the state to corporations?
Safe seats mean that politicians get to evolve into quasi-extremists w/o any real electoral accountability. It occurs on the right but more on the left.
The above comment happens when cousins breed, folks. To showcase how extreme the right is, all one has to do is look at how far apart national polling is from the positions needed to win a Republican primary, and contrast that with how closely aligned Democratic positions are with those of the national polls.
But that's hard to do when you possess less instincts into understanding human nature than the average cat.
"Under Trump, the GOP has become the party of unrepentant restrictionism, even when this clashes with the free market and competition — things the party allegedly believes in."
How shocking. Every single point is recycled from the Republican primaries. Trump is doing on immigration, trade, entitlements, Obamacare exactly what he signaled he was going to do. This pretended shock is just an illusion of a fresh take. Writing for an intellectual journal is like marking up a boilerplate contract. Global change "Candidate" to "President," "would" to "is" write a new first paragraph, and hit publish. Nice gig.
Fascism actually believed in subverting corporations to the state. But of course, in the real world it becomes a question of who subverts who, and you get a bit of that mutual subversion. See Schumpeter on how this works. The real world, seen in this light, is almost uniformly Fascist at this time. Go anywhere and you will find the same thing.
Hatred for foreigners is also (or has been for a long time) the default official position of most governments. You will find this codified all over the Third world, and plenty elsewhere also. The major exceptions are Europe and the US.
But isnt the current polling showing that the administrations policies are actually popular, much more popular than the administration?
Fascism actually believed in subverting corporations to the state. But of course, in the real world it becomes a question of who subverts who, and you get a bit of that mutual subversion. See Schumpeter on how this works. The real world, seen in this light, is almost uniformly Fascist at this time. Go anywhere and you will find the same thing.
So your preference for subverting the state to corporations is what, then, if not fascism? I simply believe that corporations should not be above the law, let alone re-writing laws to make pollution easier, weaken worker protections, etc., and other things that are popularly and ethically opposed. Have you ever considered using a time machine to go work for the Pinkerton Corporation a hundred years ago? Maybe that's a situation you'd prefer to be involved with.
Hatred for foreigners is also (or has been for a long time) the default official position of most governments. You will find this codified all over the Third world, and plenty elsewhere also. The major exceptions are Europe and the US.
Thanks to Western enlightenment norms that it looks like your Trump friend is interested in overturning.
"The reason for the "huh??" would seem to be the totally wrong, 180-degree opposite from reality premise that the Republican Party was before the election a committed, principled conservative party." Right
And Reagan "gave up the GOP soul" when he was ready to make a deal with Gorbachev as Bush did when he expanded Medicare and supported NCLB and Romney did when he accepted Romneycare and the GOP did since time immemorial as tax collectors of the welfare state. US parties are no ideological phalanxes. Even Dem elite control is about spoils and power and patronage as much as it is about promoting prog ideology.
China is heading into rough seas and the future might hold some surprises.
The cash flow from China has reversed, which is very bad news for the southern California real estate market.
The future for China is uncertain and debt is heavy.
He argues that China's reliance on debt to stimulate growth will end when the economy runs out of room to borrow, leading to the sort of stagnation seen in Japan after its bubble burst in 1992.
The danger, he says, will be that as companies shift focus from expanding production to repairing their balance sheets, even loose monetary policy will no longer persuade indebted companies to increase borrowing.
"This [the H1B program] has been abused to such a degree that a very great deal of money is involved, leading to a very well-funded opposition to reform (as we see Dalmia largely makes her living as a mouthpiece on this front)."
I wondered why so many Republicans were supporting "comprehensive immigration reform" that would potentially give the opposition party, the Dems, a significant electoral advantage. We found the answer when a friend went to DC to lobby against such for an engineering society. The answer was that there was a huge amount of money behind the H1B side of the bill and Dingy Harry Reid tied the two pieces together. The House could pass whatever immigration legislation it wanted, but if it didn't give the Dems the legalization of the illegals (and thus their votes), it wasn't going anywhere in the Senate. Which essential ally meant that Got file and the other tech giants were spending tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars to enact legislative n that would presumably give the Dems a permanent resident king majority.
The thing that made the whole thing ludicrous was that the H1B part of immigration "reform" would have made it even more difficult for H1B visa holders to ever change employment, once here. Apparently, they would have had to go back home first. The absurdity was that while the legislation would make it easier for an illegal immigrant, with a 3rd grade education, to get citizenship, but at the same time, harder for the STEM PhD here on an H1B visa. But, because of all that tech H1B money behind the legislation, we were always surprised when Republicans backed it. And then, like Cantor, went down in flames, at least partially in response to their support.
Mark said..."And they think that because they are an elected majority that voters love them when, in fact, voters despise them all and only voted for these weasels because, incredible enough, the liberal and progressive Dems are even worse."
Ding ding ding!!! This^^^^
My sense is that Dalmia and others would far prefer to maintain their ideological purity and critique from the sidelines than actually take and exercise power with all the messiness that involves. I continue to believe there is a good chance that by any reasonable standard the whole Trump experience will work out well for the country and the GOP.
Tim In Vermont
If you believed the Democrats marketing brochures, I am sure you would be mystified as to why the tech bazillionaires, almost to a man, back the Democrats. They Democrats offer these people what they desperately want, policy levers that can be controlled by money.
Exactly. And that Disney guy - who is a (D), who might run for prez, he likes to fire Americans and hire H1-B. He's not rich enough!
Ritmo, you are silly.
I did not mention any personal preference, merely commenting on the state of affairs. Any honest and diligent observer will inevitably become cynical about the utility and effect of such laws. Or, indeed, their actual purpose. Most of these things are eagerly sought by the regulated. I should know, I am in the belly of these beasts. Why? Because they serve as barriers to entry and ensure market niches. Man is a fallen creature and his works are always corrupt, or corruptible.
Laws should be seen not as mechanisms to achieve their legislated intentions, but, if the desired condition actually prevails, rather as expressions of the cultural climate. Laws that dont fit their cultural climate, which is most of them most of the time in most places, are ignored, perverted, or are merely tokens in dominance games. Consider Brazil, say, with a huge lot of bien-pensant laws on the books, versus the actual social and economic conditions there, and the actual state of compliance with their laws.
Balls builds straw men as performance art.
Makes the "resistance" mystery all the more mysterious.
Toothless Revoutionary @10:13 AM:
You missed my point.
But that's hard to do when you possess less instincts into understanding human nature than the average cat.
Meow!
A "free market" with monopolies and arbitrage is leftist. A capitalist market is conservative.
[class] diversity is leftist. Recognizing individual dignity is conservative.
Selective exclusion (e.g. "=") is leftist. Female chauvinism is leftist. Equal treatment (of individuals) is conservative.
Social justice adventurism (e.g. wars of aggression), elective regime changes, extra-judicial trials, catastrophic anthropogenic immigration reform is leftist. Self-defense, probable cause, trials by jury, emigration reform is conservative.
Elective abortion of the wholly innocent is leftist. Capital punishment of murderers is conservative.
Denying life unworthy is leftist. Recognizing intrinsic value of human life is conservative.
The principles of the Republican Party are conservative.
That said, beware overlapping and convergent interests. Classical liberalism untempered has a socially liberal outlook, economically leftist progression.
Ritmo,
But why do you privilege "western enlightenment" norms vs others? Is that not simply bigotry? Why isnt, say, Confucian moral philosophy just as valid, even in a western culture?
Are we not one world now? I ask for your ideas on this honestly, as I come from cultures where all of these norms apply, and conflict.
I assure you, further, that in modern US schools anything smacking of "western enlightenment" is entirely unwelcome. They prefer their own cultural ideals that are mainly artificial constructs, much like the syncretic Gods (Serapis, say) of Alexandria.
I did not mention any personal preference, merely commenting on the state of affairs.
You defended corporatism as somehow being different from and better than fascism. Whether you realized that or not.
Any honest and diligent observer will inevitably become cynical about the utility and effect of such laws.
Only if they've never been to countries that allow less pollution and worker violations than America does.
The rest of what you say is just an excuse for saying that laws should be repealed until the only ones left are those that appeal to the lowest common denominator. Laws are not repealed until the only ones left are those which no one violates. If you're such a fan of might making right and money controlling everything, you should repeal murder laws so that the hit man and bodyguarding industries could flourish.
Your positions as usual are too extreme and poorly thought out to take seriously. No wonder you're opposed to thoughtfully doing the right thing. You're never thoughtful enough, yourself, to come to a sane position. You just think that anarchy and mob wisdom are acceptable outcomes to justify your distress that society will never be perfect enough to prevent a law from being violated.
Michael K said...
China is heading into rough seas and the future might hold some surprises.
The cash flow from China has reversed, which is very bad news for the southern California real estate market.
The future for China is uncertain and debt is heavy.
World debt is 225% of World GDP.
Trump is remaking the GOP and this country for americans in the face of the globalists who are scamming the world economy.
But why do you privilege "western enlightenment" norms vs others?
Because I, and most thinking people, believe they're better.
Is that not simply bigotry?
I don't think so. I don't believe that all other cultures are worthless, or need to end. Just that ours is the best for life in a modern industrial/post-industrial society. Or any other society where so much information needs to be shared and disseminated so thoroughly.
Why isnt, say, Confucian moral philosophy just as valid, even in a western culture?
I don't know for certain that it isn't. I don't know that much about it, frankly.
But if a look at China, or even Asia is instructive, its emphasis on piety and obedience may illustrate why Asian societies are more prone to totalitarian collapse, which I'd want to prevent here. A friend of mine explained that it's Asia's emphasis on piety and familial authority that make it prone to tyranny and dictatorship. Sounds plausible. Here we worship youth and their well-being instead.
Are we not one world now?
We always were. We're less separated by language or other information barriers, of course. And trade. But other than that we exchange information more frequently enough to make conflict or even misunderstanding less unavoidable.
I ask for your ideas on this honestly, as I come from cultures where all of these norms apply, and conflict.
Well, I'm happy to provide my opinion on it.
I assure you, further, that in modern US schools anything smacking of "western enlightenment" is entirely unwelcome.
I don't know how this became such a popular right-wing talking point. I think US schools try to teach cultural developments globally from a neutral perspective. But that doesn't mean that the west or its enlightenment are devalued.
They prefer their own cultural ideals that are mainly artificial constructs, much like the syncretic Gods (Serapis, say) of Alexandria.
Not sure what this means.
buwaya said...
The one big thing underlying Dalmia's anger is H1b.
One of the most ignored issues has been the tipping of the balances towards capital over labor while the globalists like Obama have been in charge. Low interest rates favor debt and make it easier to borrow money to buy capital improvements rather than hire labor for example. Another is open borders for obvious reasons and allowing the free movement of labor anywhere obviously lowers wages.
Just listening to all of the heavy breathing about coming "inflation" the past couple weeks has been eye opening. "Inflation," the bane of economies according to the globalist, appears to be nothing more than higher wages.
I should clarify that my friend is from SE Asia.
"Trump Has Radically Transformed the GOP"
MacCain hardest hit.
Corporatism = Fascist economic policy = the prevailing state of affairs in the world today. We are all fascists now, even if we havent the black shirts. In the west though they still sing the message of "Faccetta Nera" in prose and art.
I have done business in many countries. I have been in hot spots (Guangdong) and odd spots (Aden). Let me lay down a matter of experience - the US worker is far better treated than almost any other anywhere. And where they are better treated, to a degree, and disputable (ask about, say, disposable income, pensions, and etc.) it is because of a privileged group prevailing over the unemployed, as with the unfireable workers of France, or where a small country exists in an economic sweet spot (Switzerland, say) that doesnt apply on a continental scale.
Laws are like whipping a recalcitrant horse. The horse will go if he wants to, and wont if he doesnt, and no degree of whipping will come to much but a tired arm and a bloody horse.
I am comparing American working conditions (or even just protections, rights, influence) to Europe, not to China or Yemen. And not necessarily to France. Europe is bigger than just France. There are other countries in Europe besides France, and I don't think their labor environments are all unfavorable compared to ours. I'll let you investigate further and then we could discuss those comparisons, rather than comparisons to rights-bereft countries outside of the West or France.
To moderate that about the black shirts. My daughter was wearing, in high school, the prevailing costume of the the San Francisco intellectual teenager, which is of course - black. She even had a black pea-coat, on which matter I put my foot in it, like dads are condemned to do, by remarking that it looked like she'd joined the Gestapo.
buwaya said...
Sorry, I have to butt in, cuz I am a butthead.
Ritmo,
But why do you privilege "western enlightenment" norms vs others? Is that not simply bigotry? Why isnt, say, Confucian moral philosophy just as valid, even in a western culture?
Not sure if you are baiting Ritmo or not. The "anglosphere" clearly fosters superior values. For example my wife comes from hong kong where Confucian moral philosophy is taking over. Chinese culture has some pretty abhorrent shit. Discuss with them whose fault it is if someone steals your stuff. They are still harvesting organs from political dissidents.
Are we not one world now? I ask for your ideas on this honestly, as I come from cultures where all of these norms apply, and conflict.
People are trying to make us one world, that is why Trump won.
I assure you, further, that in modern US schools anything smacking of "western enlightenment" is entirely unwelcome. They prefer their own cultural ideals that are mainly artificial constructs, much like the syncretic Gods (Serapis, say) of Alexandria.
Our public schools were designed by facists and operate to create drones for the state. They are still better than most Asian schools amazingly. You should hear some of the shit they did to my wife in their schools.
Better headline - "The GOP has radically transformed the GOP..."
Then the author could explain how the core principals atrophied over time due to non-exercise until Trump came along.
The Toothless Revolutionary said...
I am comparing American working conditions (or even just protections, rights, influence) to Europe, not to China or Yemen. And not necessarily to France. Europe is bigger than just France. There are other countries in Europe besides France, and I don't think their labor environments are all unfavorable compared to ours. I'll let you investigate further and then we could discuss those comparisons, rather than comparisons to rights-bereft countries outside of the West or France.
Most of this will be moot in 10-20 years. But.
One problem with comparing the European economy to the US economy is the difference in imported labor. The labor we import is excellent and hardworking and generally peaceful. Theirs is decidedly not.
Another is that the European economy is impossible to maintain without the United States defending Europe essentially for free.
I am speaking of Europe as a whole, of the large economies, including Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain. None compare very well in terms of, say, median disposable income vs the US. Nor do most do well in terms of retirement income.
The top tier does compare very well, since 2000, on labor force participation, and especially since 2008, and they are rather better paid in manufacturing, even adjusting for PPP/COLA. These are the clear result of recent US economic and other policies.
As far as European countries go, Germany's is a fine labor market for ours to compare to. Plenty of worker protections, a plenty productive economy a per capita GDP that closely approaches ours (pretty impressive given their lack of billionaires compared to us), and a vibrant manufacturing sector. All this in spite of that problematic influx that the Trump fans are very concerned (not unrightly so) about. Plus, they seem to be figuring out that renewable energy is not a bad thing, and that cheap energy from little yellow powder isn't the greatest when you can't figure out how to keep meltdowns from ever happening. Plenty of innovation, too. Fukushima is now yielding radioactive boar and fish washing up in California with 10x the background radiation as before. Not good. Sometimes balancing all a society's needs within the context of a productive, innovative manufacturing sector is actually a good thing. They do all this without having billionaires control their Bundestag, either. Imagine that. Lo and behold.
On US schools - having spent 20+ years dealing with the very edge of enlightened US schools, volunteering, sitting at dozens of school board meetings, reviewing curricula, and hearing a great deal of the state of affairs at the University of California system -
The message of the public schools is, muddled as it has to be, that western culture is shit. Entirely and irredeemably shit. This is seen in history, philosophy, literature, etc., every "soft" subject. The greatest interest is in a sort of hate-competition, where there are rewards for finding causes for complaint. Examples of literature no longer contain any "western" classics, but have to be some third-world or US-minority litany of complaint. This is the plainest truth.
This does not apply to math and science, though I note that "science" is very poorly taught on the whole, with nearly no experimental content. This seems to have been expunged as a result of liability exposure. I have been to a dozen San Francisco schools that have classrooms that were obviously, in a truly better time, chemistry labs. Very much, for instance, as Richard Feynman famously complained of about Brazilian education.
@buwaya
"Fascism actually believed in subverting corporations to the state. But of course, in the real world it becomes a question of who subverts who, and you get a bit of that mutual subversion. See Schumpeter on how this works. The real world, seen in this light, is almost uniformly Fascist at this time. Go anywhere and you will find the same thing."
Interesting you put it that way. Marxist approaches to capitalism all emphasize its links with capitalism. They believed that capitalists were able to persuade the perpetually perplexed petty bourgeoisie that its interest lay in defending property against socialism. Fascist corporatism essentially involved the collusion of trade unions, employers and the state who would determine things like wage levels and economic activity from above. Industrialists and unionists would be forced to come to some sort of compromise in the interest the nation. But the unions in Germany and Italy knew better and saw Fascism for what it was and bravely opposed it.
"Corporatism = Fascist economic policy = the prevailing state of affairs in the world today. We are all fascists now, even if we havent the black shirts."
This is a bit of a stretch. Corporatism mixed with economic nationalism and racial exclusionism = fascism. With fascism national and racial interest was regarded as the supreme priority over the interests of social classes or individuals. The neoliberal view is explicitly global in its outlook and seeks to eliminate barriers so that capital and goods can flow freely. Borders and strong nationalistic sentiment are a hindrance to that end. So we are all not fascists. At least your "global elite" boogeymen aren't.
Marxist approaches to fascism* all emphasize its links with capitalism.
To put the disaster of US education in context - they are deliberately filling the minds of young Asian immigrant children, FOB (fresh off the boat) with the need to hate and fear the society that they have just entered.
That every (white) mans hand is against them, and that they must band together against the (white) oppressor.
It is pure tribalism. There is not an ounce of "western enlightenment" in it.
To their credit, a great number of these poor kids kick back against the propaganda.
Nyamujal -
Most countries are decidedly not global in their outlook.
The vast majority are much more protectionist than the US.
And the vast majority are far more explicitly nationalist in their official messaging. Much of Europe excluded.
My point re fascism is that its economic policy, corporatism, is prevalent. Black shirts and foreigner-hating not necessarily, but a great number are into that too.
buwaya said...
I am speaking of Europe as a whole, of the large economies, including Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain. None compare very well in terms of, say, median disposable income vs the US. Nor do most do well in terms of retirement income.
You can't really compare a European Economy like Germany to the US. We defend them for free. They get to do a lot of things with that extra 2-4% GDP.
It is interesting we still outperform Europe in almost every measure. That is the power of growth.
In my opinion a more interesting comparison is between Germany or Britain and France or Italy. If you want to get into the meaty core of the protestant vs. catholic discussion this is where you can have it. All of the controls are there.
Nyamujal said...
This is a bit of a stretch. Corporatism mixed with economic nationalism and racial exclusionism = fascism. With fascism national and racial interest was regarded as the supreme priority over the interests of social classes or individuals. The neoliberal view is explicitly global in its outlook and seeks to eliminate barriers so that capital and goods can flow freely. Borders and strong nationalistic sentiment are a hindrance to that end. So we are all not fascists. At least your "global elite" boogeymen aren't.
But the "global elite" bogeymen have been running things for the last 30 years. What we have is stagnant wages and growing inequality.
The fight hasn't been between the 1% and the 99%. It has been the .001% against the 1%. Small and medium sized businesses generate the most wage growth and innovation. Over the last 30 years we have seen open borders and "free" trade deals that give well connected wealthy an advantage over their small business competitors.
Nyamujal said...
Marxist approaches to fascism* all emphasize its links with capitalism.
All of these labels are meant to distract from what is happening.
Some of voted for Trump because we were opposed to open borders and free trade, both idiotic ideas that have devastated working families and benefited only the rich.
It is patently obvious that our foreign policy under Clinton, Bush W and Obama has been infinitely worse than Russia's, actually morally depraved. We have deliberately and for no reason devastated Sudan, Somalia, Mali, Afghanistan (the Taliban didn't do 9/11), Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt (attempt defeated). We have killed hundreds of thousands of civilians, displaced millions, literally flattened dozens of cities, wrecked whole regional economies. The leaders of the US, the Presidents, Members of Congress, State Department and Department of Defense are actual war criminals in the Nuremberg sense. Lots of Nazis (and Japanese) died for their crimes. Reason, the cuckservatives and neocons celebrate their own.
Thank God Trump is decent enough to dispense with the rotten conservative principles.
Germany is the best comparison for parts of the US.
The US ethno-cultural mix is way more varied, and is best compared to Europe as a whole, and IMHO this is more significant to social and economic conditions than the legal siituation. Rather, the laws are a reflection of the society, much more so than the society being created by the laws.
Germany has maintained a mighty manufacturing base indeed, through more enlightened social ideas and education. They dont hate their manufacturers like US governments tend to hate theirs - this is a real thing, in Germany regulators WANT to keep you in business, and will HELP you comply, instead of killing you the moment they get the chance. And dancing over the dead bodies.
However, on the whole the US, even after nearly two decades (or mire) of poor economic policy and social degradation, still beats Germany re workers. The telling number is disposable income.
Perhaps Trump is a new party. We shall see.
The Toothless Revolutionary said...
As far as European countries go, Germany's is a fine labor market for ours to compare to. Plenty of worker protections, a plenty productive economy a per capita GDP that closely approaches ours (pretty impressive given their lack of billionaires compared to us), and a vibrant manufacturing sector.
Still can't compare an economy that defends itself to an economy that doesn't.
I understand wanting worker protections. But I would posit that freedom does a better job. Worker protections make it next to impossible for a small business to compete with a large business.
I am all about worker protections for people who work for large businesses though. But businesses that have fewer than 1000 employees should be exempted from federal regulation. Let the states take care of that.
kentuckyliz said...
Perhaps Trump is a new party. We shall see.
Whether Trump did it purposely or not he turned the election into Country vs. DC. The republican party clearly took a side and the democrats were outed for long ago taking the side of the wealthy donors.
The Serapeum of the US educational system built its gods, those statues on its walls, from the following elements -
- Hate of the white man
- Worship of the third world - or rather the brown-skinned inhabitants thereof.
- Communism (a dead god, but much honored)
- Ignorance, facts being discounted unless useful for the worship of some of the gods above.
- Equality of, well, something or other. A very confused God.
- Process, for the sake of process
- Money
buwaya @12:55 PM:
Very good. Excellent.
Nyamujal: This is a bit of a stretch. Corporatism mixed with economic nationalism and racial exclusionism = fascism. With fascism national and racial interest was regarded as the supreme priority over the interests of social classes or individuals. The neoliberal view is explicitly global in its outlook and seeks to eliminate barriers so that capital and goods can flow freely. Borders and strong nationalistic sentiment are a hindrance to that end.
The post-war neoliberal project is corporatist and anti-democratic. It's a failing project. (Its champions only pretend to be "democratic" when democratic outcomes are going their way.) That it is or is not technically "fascist" isn't, imo, a particularly relevant debate.
Achilles said...
I understand wanting worker protections. But I would posit that freedom does a better job. Worker protections make it next to impossible for a small business to compete with a large business.
The German Mittelstand is generally considered the most successful example of small and independent businesses on the planet.
These were never "Core Republican values" - they were core "Wall street values" and "Chamber of Commerce values".
Cheap labor, open borders, bad trade deals, cutting social security, and hating Russia NEVER were core values to grass roots Republicans.
Of course "Reason" is not a conservative magazine, its a "Libertarian" one. Its in favor of economic policies that favor the rich and liberalism in everything else.
@rcocean: These were never "Core Republican values."
Don't you love being lectured on core Republican values by someone born and educated in New Delhi? Recovering and explaining the core values of the Republican Party: one more job Americans can't or won't do.
AReasonableMan said...
This is thread is for Chuck, hope he turns up.
Well, here I am.
I've been listening to Shikha Dalmia for a while now as a semi-regular guest on the Detroit NPR station, WDET. She is a particular favorite of Stephen Henderson, who hosts a morning interview program which follows Morning Edition. Henderson is a devoted, activist liberal who doubles as the Editorial Page Editor (and lead columnist) for the Detroit Free Press. Shikha Dalmia resides here.
As you can imagine, the devoted libertarian (Dalmia) and the devoted Democrat (Henderson) find much to agree on, when it comes to Trump. They get on nauseatingly well.
Let's be clear about Shikha Dalmia; she is nothing like the NeverTrump conservatives at National Review and the Wall Street Journal. She is one of the dreamy libertarians who could only find work at a place like Reason or the University of Chicago, where a brown-skinned libertarian is a kind of twofer.
Now, about this column. I enjoyed reading it, and I really want to thank Althouse for posting it, so that I would not miss it. I read it, without a lot of emotion. I think it is pretty clear, and pretty well-described by Dalmia, how it is that Trump is fundamentally unlike doctrinaire Republicans. That is, if you assume that Trump might actually act on these things, as though he had some doctrine of his own.
The thing that I don't get about Shikha Dalmia's column is that it isn't at all clear to me that Trump, or Congress, is going to act on these Trump initiatives. Trump might indeed have changed the GOP if any of these things came to pass. But will they? It seems to me that apart from the frat-house cheering of Trump by many House members in Trump's Joint Session address, a whole lot of Trump proposals are landing on Capitol Hill with a barely-audible thud. I might agree that Trump was changing the GOP, if he were actually changing what the GOP puts out as policy. But I don't think he is. Trump is ticking off list-items from his campaign, like a Muslim ban and a "repeal" of "Obamacare," and a "Mexican wall, et cetera, in remarkably weak, watered-down ways that only suck all the political air out of the room without resulting in any serious Trump presence or influence on Capitol Hill.
Maybe stating the obvious but Trump was elected in part, by cutting into a traditional core Dem party constituency. Historically, these working class whites were the foundation, center of that party. And, maybe as a result sealed the fate of that party. They are left with the poor, esp minorities who hate each other, and the very rich exploiting everyone else to increase their own immense wealth, plus young college aged voters too naive to know better, and some of the upper middle class, who prefer virtue signaling to problem solving. Not a stable assembly. Blacks know that the illegal immigrants they are supposed to be helping end up taking jobs from them, while Jews discover the the worst antisemitism is found in their own party, and esp the newest preferred demographic, Muslims, whose dream remains the killing all the Jews in Israel. And the poor there suffer the most over the party elite's get-richer-schemes, such as renewable energy and solving AGW. Meanwhile, the Republicans remain in the center, while expanding their reach downward economically. Much more stable position to be in. If played well, Trump could usher in the same sort of demographic electoral lock that the Dems were dreaming of, but for the Republicans.
I have long been a free trader, but keep coming back to the reality that the rich keep getting richer, the richest are now obscenely rich, and much of the advantage of globalizim end up in their pockets. Not ours - theirs. And because of this, are supporting the Democrats more and more, that party's leaders having shown themselves more than willing to be bought (not saying that Rep politicians can't be bought, because they routinely are, but rather that it is more shameless and blatant with the Dems - think about what nominating Crooked Hillary last year says about this subject). The top .1% are netting the biggest gains from globalization, by far, and are willing to sacrifice anyone, or the welfare of any country (even their own), to achieve this. Indeed, the people least tied to single countries benefit the most from global free trade.
Trump's job of cementing that new demographic majority for Republicans seems fairly straight forward - he just needs to keep most of his campaign promises, and then become less offensive to the upper middle class. Reducing regulations, esp the extremely onerous economically ones of the Obama Administration is likely to more than make up for any losses due to lessening of free trade, and esp if combined with tax reform that reduces individual and, esp. corp., tax rates. Criticality there is that small businesses do a bulk of new hiring, and are esp burdened both by our extremely punitive tax rates (our family company pays a higher marginal rate than does GM or Microsoft), while not having the ability to move profits to lower taxing countries.
@Chuck: "it isn't at all clear to me that Trump, or Congress, is going to act on these Trump initiatives."
We should certainly know by the mid-term elections. The big ticket changes will by definition take time, but if Trump (and the Republican Congress) deliver on:
1. Repeal and replace Obamacare
2. Corporate tax reform, particularly along the lines of the border adjustment tax that will tilt advantage back to Made in America,
3. Some kind of Public/Private infrastructure plan that creates hundreds of thousands of construction jobs and
4. hundreds of miles of new border wall/fence
that is action which will be rewarded in 2018 and beyond.
Next, assuming 60 seats in the Senate, immigration reform along the lines of Canadian/ Australian Immigration merit-based system.
just like much of what comes out of the keyboards of those who are compelled to use them, the "need" to put forth words, does not equate to them being profound.
Its March..... March.
So that's an interesting list. But it really doesn't follow Shikha Dalmia's Five Ways that Trump is supposedly changing some of the essential values of the GOP, right? Let's examine:
1. Repeal and replace Obamacare
So far, the Obamcare "replacement" looks like a total inside-GOP job. Calculated to cause the least disruption with something that could still be called a "repeal." The Freedom Caucus of the GOP is having it. Without betraying whether I like or dislike the House-Leadership proposal, Trump and Dr. Tom Price have signed on, and it looks like the thing is nevertheless dead on arrival.
2. Corporate tax reform, particularly along the lines of the border adjustment tax that will tilt advantage back to Made in America,
As they say on the playgrounds, "I don't see that happening." Tax reform, maybe. But nothing whatsoever like the Trump campaign trashtalk about a 35% on imported car parts if Ford sets up any new assembly in Mexico or China. I expect Ford to do both. Not to spite Trump, but rather because it is the best business decision for the Ford Motor Company and its shareholders.
3. Some kind of Public/Private infrastructure plan that creates hundreds of thousands of construction jobs and
That has been blocked by House Republican budget hawks, and I expect that it will remain an uphill battle for Trump.
4. hundreds of miles of new border wall/fence
that is action which will be rewarded in 2018 and beyond.
And that will do what? Fulfill a campaign promise? Lower the number of low-skilled Mexican and Central American immigrants by some number? That is such an insignificant part of the economy. If some conservative immigration hawk wants to claim that it is indeed significant, to the maintenance worker making $35,000 a year who can be replaced by a Mexican illegal for $19,000 and who will work overtime hours without overtime pay. But while that is a compelling story, it isn't a dominant one, and it isn't a large part of the economy. Build more wall, if you want. I just don't regard it seriously as anything other than signaling to the Trump base.
The message of the public schools is, muddled as it has to be, that western culture is shit. Entirely and irredeemably shit.
Yep! I'm sure that's exactly what it is. Lol. Expletives and everything. Whatever you say, Philippine expert on America. Ha.
This is seen in history, philosophy, literature, etc., every "soft" subject. The greatest interest is in a sort of hate-competition, where there are rewards for finding causes for complaint.
Oh Dear. Methinks someone confuses a society interested in its own self-correction with the inferior non-Western societies, replete as they are with nationalistic love-fests that cloyingly embrace their own injustices and abominations instead of correcting them. Patriotism in a self-governed, Western-style democracy is a bit different. It doesn't tell people to ignore away problems that are eminently resolvable once the people are allowed to speak out about them. If you're a fan of authoritarian elites spouting messages of nationalistic perfection onto the masses, and forcing the masses to repeat them back robotically, you'd be more at home in North Korea, China or any one of a number non-Westernized states - clustered as they seem to be, for some reason, in the traditionally paternalistic, obedient societies of Asia.
On some of these, the effect will be to drive the Democrats left, leaving the middle to the GOP. The Dems have embraced open borders. Most Americans don't want that. Ditto their anti-police "civil rights" agenda.
Worst case for the GOP, as far as controlling political offices, is for Trump to fail to keep his campaign promises.
Which country are you a citizen of, R&B? Romania? The country you describe is unrecognizable. In the US, we have to put up walls to keep people out, not in.
@ARM i suspect you will find the same networks of small to mid-size companies all over the US as in Germany. I am always surprised at the small manufacturers in small towns that I see across MN as I travel. We are so spread out that our small/middle size companies don't make the same "visual" impact as in Germany.
Ritmo, my boy, you have not seen what I have seen.
30 years in the US and three kids raised here, K-grad school.
Enter the world of US education and you cant miss it.
I leave you to your delusions.
Plus, they seem to be figuring out that renewable energy is not a bad thing, and that cheap energy from little yellow powder isn't the greatest when you can't figure out how to keep meltdowns from ever happening.
This is just hilarious and I wonder that you can post this with an intention of being taken seriously.
Germany has the highest energy costs in Europe.
Taking exchange rates out of the equation, Helsinki is the cheapest of the 23 European cities surveyed for electricity prices. Households in Berlin - the most expensive - pay two-and-a-half times as much, largely due to taxes and subsidies designed to boost renewable energy production.
In fact, almost a third of a Berliner's electricity bill comprises energy taxes. The equivalent figure for the UK is currently 9%, but this will fall - possibly by three or four percentage points - once energy suppliers pass on recently announced changes in green levies.
High energy costs damage German industry.
Germany’s Kyoto 1990 emissions are high, because East Germany is included. By retiring East Germany’s old, inefficient coal plants, and replacing them with new ones, Germany has been able to brag about its large reductions of CO2 emissions. See figure 12 of below URL of Agora report.
The targets of 2030 and 2050 would require shutting down most coal plants, which likely would not happen, as the newly-built, flexible ones are needed for balancing the variable, intermittent wind and solar energy, and to provide capacity adequacy. See below sections.
Increased coal use occurred in 2012 and 2013. This will be ongoing for many years, as new coal plants are brought on line and nuclear plants are decommissioned. 2010 was a colder year, requiring increased fossil fuel for heating; 2014 was a warmer year.
Shutting down nuclear plants was insanity. They will pay later in decresed manufacturing and higher costs.
Twenty-four hours later, Juergen Grossmann learnt through the media that Merkel was planning to shut down the country's oldest nuclear plants and bid farewell to a technology she had vowed was critical just six months earlier.
"There was great hysteria," Grossmann, RWE's CEO until 2012, said during a hearing at the state of Hesse parliament this year.
"The government thought at the time that Germany was close to a nuclear disaster," said Grossmann, 63, known to his critics as "nuclear Rambo", according to transcripts of the hearing seen by Reuters.
The decision, one of the biggest policy turnarounds in Germany's history, lays bare a lack of coordination untypical for Merkel, a physicist by training and known for her disciplined step-by-step approach.
Half a decade on, it shows.
As the Fukushima disaster approaches its fifth anniversary, Germany's utilities are in crisis and struggling to shoulder the shutdown bill. There are fears the government may have to bail them out.
A disaster and our resident expert on everything hasn't noticed.
"I understand wanting worker protections. But I would posit that freedom does a better job. Worker protections make it next to impossible for a small business to compete with a large business."
The German Mittelstand is generally considered the most successful example of small and independent businesses on the planet.
"History does not repeat, but it does instruct. As the Founding Fathers debated our Constitution, they took instruction from the history they knew. Concerned that the democratic republic they envisioned would collapse, they contemplated the descent of ancient democracies and republics into oligarchy and empire. As they knew, Aristotle warned that inequality brought instability, while Plato believed that demagogues exploited free speech to install themselves as tyrants."
-- Timothy Snyder. On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons for the Twentieth Century. Penguin Random House LLC. New York, 2017.
I am all about worker protections for people who work for large businesses though. But businesses that have fewer than 1000 employees should be exempted from federal regulation. Let the states take care of that.
That's fine, but it's a bit of another right-wing talking point. Check this out. It mirrors a similar ranking list I'd seen in The Economist a year ago on the best countries for opening a small business. Keep in mind the disincentive it is to go into business for yourself when buying insurance on the individual market was a significant problem before the ACA. Self-insurance is a significant obstacle to starting a business; you can ask anyone who needs regular care who's done it.
And NO ONE, not any business, not any person, not any chamber music ensemble is exempt from federal regulation. Examples of federal crime "include mail fraud, aircraft hijacking, carjacking, kidnapping, bank robbery, child pornography, credit card fraud, identity theft, computer crimes, violations of federal hate crimes, violations of the Federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO), obscenity, tax evasion, counterfeiting," etc., etc., etc., etc. (Per wiki). When people want to talk about "regulation," they need to be specific and say which one. Saying regulation is bad is like saying law is bad, because it's just as unspecific and generalized a statement, and is essentially saying the same thing. Executive Order Feb. 28, 2017 was signed because Trump said it would "save" a hundred or so jobs that are apparently reliant on polluting watersheds that are not connected by major, navigable waterway to a definable body of water. Sounds great! 100 jobs! In the meantime, some people might not think that the ability for the big, dying corporations profiting off this to poison them is worth it. Call them crazy. I guess they figured out that the ecosystem doesn't discriminate between pollution making its way into their water sources through the watershed's less visible/navigable features and pollution that gets there in a more geographically visible way. But hey, kill/poison some people, save a job devoted to an obsolete industry that's growing much slower than those in safer, substitutable industries. It's the Trump way, I guess.
Where I live residential power costs just shy of $0.35 KWh.
Most places in Hawaii have lots of sunshine year-round. They still have to subsidize solar to get people to install it on their homes.
Average US residential power is about $0.12 KWh.
@Robother
"Don't you love being lectured on core Republican values by someone born and educated in New Delhi? Recovering and explaining the core values of the Republican Party: one more job Americans can't or won't do."
An outsider's perspective can be very valuable. There's a reason why people still read de Tocqueville.
A disaster and our resident expert on everything hasn't noticed.
What are you, a "resident expert" on eating radioactive fish and keeping radioactive wild boar from making your seaside towns uninhabitable? What's the economic impact on that, Mr Money is Everything?
I say everyone who's good with a power source that has an unavoidable waste product that doesn't decontaminate for thousands of years, get together and form their own community in which to welcome transport and storage of that waste. Or better yet, live on the plant site itself. (Hopefully it's a geologically inert site, which is not likely the more you frack). I'm fine with that. But everyone knows that's not what happens. Michael's just another one of those egomaniacs who think he should be able to buy justice for himself, and deprive it from everybody else.
Germany's per capita GDP is 87% ours. Their health outcomes are better; they're not consigned to a Dickensian life if they go into the trades. Looks like they're doing fine.
The nonsense quotient is high now.
One last example. A friend who is a master plumber and whose wife is a nurse midwife waited years to win a lottery for an immigration visa from Germany to the US. They had saved 60,000 Euros while waiting. They are in Tucson now doing well.
He told me there was no way he could ever start his own plumbing business in Germany.
Pardon me for preferring someone who has experience to the resident talking machine.
Here's a cost:
$100 million to keep Miami Beach habitable.
What's the cost to keep rising ocean levels from wiping out NOLA?
Or Manhattan?
Or Bangladesh?
Michael K doesn't know. He's only a "resident expert" on things that right-wing outlets like WND tell him to be an expert on. And he thinks human life is expendable. Only dollar amounts matter to him. Too bad no one told him that half the human population (the economically more productive half, by far), lives on vulnerable coastlines. It seems he's ok with taking a chance on wiping out the vast majority of human wealth and property, because that's what "resident experts" focused on exchanging lives for money do, apparently.
Pardon me for preferring someone who has experience to the resident talking machine.
That's not the only thing you need to be pardoned for.
Not only do you prefer anecdotal gossip to rational empiricism, you get your linked sources from places that would basically only be picked up by worldnetdaily.com.
The nonsense quotient is high now.
Thanks for the generalized dismissiveness. That's to be expected from a gated-community dweller like yourself.
So what specific examples of nonsense were stated? Obviously no one can fact check what someone's best friend's boyfriend's sister's cousin who started a German plumbing business and saw Ferris Bueller pass out at 31 Flavors last night said.
Are you down with radioactive wild boars making your town uninhabitable, Dr K? Or are you not?
Or does the strength of that evidence just not compare to what some schmoe in Tucson told you?
Yep, lots of sensible people living in a place that's regularly 90 to 100 degrees. If it's a place where cool heads will not prevail, then Dr K's got their story. And he's an expert on how their anecdotal gossip should shape reality generally.
"half the human population (the economically more productive half, by far), lives on vulnerable coastlines."
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed, whateveryouare.
For those reading here who are capable of logic, there are thousand year old docks and breakwaters in the Mediterranean that have not shown an inch of ocean rise.
I am not surprised that you still follow the religion of global warming but am slightly surprised you admit it. Or even boast about it.
Some of us have even been to places like Ephesus that are now inland due to river deltas. The oceans have not risen since the end of the last ice age but, if another one is beginning, they might drop.
Ritmo,
The fact that in the US you dont have good educational channels into the trades and industry is the result largely of educational policy that was set by the educational system itself. No politician said to shut down auto shop, or not to deal with plumbers unions or the local manufacturers.
Rather, these were decided on by ed schools, as it was much more important to get kids into college, whether they wanted to or not.
FYI, I have dealt, direct, with the German Mittelstand, various companies. I have been to places like Wetzlar and Heidenheim and Traunreut. Not really on tourist routes.
A disaster and our resident expert on everything hasn't noticed.
Yes, Fukishima was a disaster. Most nuclear accidents are. Did you not notice that?
What's your solution on containing radiation? Ever noticed how hard it is to do that?
Some people value their lives more than you value their money, K. As I said, if you want to shoulder the risk, or pay for it, be my guest. Just don't force a policy on the people who have to pay for it. They don't live in gated communities, like you do. What's the closest you've ever lived to a geologically active nuclear plant site? Or a brownfield? My guess is not very close at all.
It's another example of Mikey thinking his shit don't stink and how he wants to force things on the poorer masses than he'd ever put up with himself.
Ritmo certainly can kill off an interesting conversation.
It's a bit like a shabby long hair who sits down next to you in a cafe and carries on a rambling conversation with himself.
And that will do what? Fulfill a campaign promise? Lower the number of low-skilled Mexican and Central American immigrants by some number? That is such an insignificant part of the economy.
Yes, well, that's the problem. Illegal immigrants are an insignificant part of the economy, but they still require medical care and their kids require schooling.
Some people value their lives more than you value their money, K. As I said, if you want to shoulder the risk, or pay for it, be my guest.
It's funny you should talk about risk. How many people died as a result of Fukushima? How many people has nuclear power killed, ever?
"Let's be clear about Shikha Dalmia; she is nothing like the NeverTrump conservatives at National Review and the Wall Street Journal."
Lulz
I am not surprised that you still follow the religion of global warming but am slightly surprised you admit it.
I'm not surprised that you disbelieve the fact that atmospheres regulate climate AND are stupid enough to admit it.
Tell me how the climate is on an asteroid, or the moon. Or in outer space generally. What's the climate like in places like that, places that lack atmospheres?
Tell me what's caused all this polar glacial melt, then. Or how you wish to deny away that it's even happened.
Ever compare photos from 100 years ago of Glacier National Park, Yosemite, or the Swiss Alps to today?
Are there any limits to your power of denial?
Ritmo certainly can kill off an interesting conversation.
With an idiot.
It's a bit like a shabby long hair who sits down next to you in a cafe and carries on a rambling conversation with himself.
Sounds like your plumber friend in Arizona. The place where water resources are never-ending. Only in his case, he happened to find a willing mouthpiece to trumpet his gossip as if it now became absolute truth.
Maybe he and you can take a trip up to the north pole and do some hydrology on all those melting ice masses. See if the force of their gushing waters can equal a few million flushes. Try to take a swim in all that melt, while you're at it.
Do the planet and humanity a favor, for once.
Michael K reminds me of the geezer that stands on his front porch yelling at anyone who dares step on his lawn. Get off my damn lawn, it's mine, mine mine! However, this blog's comments sections aren't his. Stop acting like a crotchety old geezer.
R&B, you clearly do not understand paleoclimatology.
Once you've fallen into the correlation = causation trap, it is hard to find yourself out of it.
The human mind is good at finding correlation. Science is supposed to help us identify causes, but of course global warming science does not consist of observations of repeatable experiments. That's why the IPCC expresses its opinions on AGW as having "confidence levels", rather than being true. And confidence level is really just an opinion.
Michael K reminds me of the geezer that stands on his front porch yelling at anyone who dares step on his lawn. Get off my damn lawn, it's mine, mine mine! However, this blog's comments sections aren't his. Stop acting like a crotchety old geezer.
He's a control freak who probably yelled at and threw operating room trays at his assistants. Not only in his O.R. but in adjacent ones.
He's a control freak. Plain and simple. An impulsive one. With dementia.
And if you want info on German labor economics, consider that they do, and historically did, suppress labor costs. The German secret was always affordable productivity. Various of their industries have been squashed by foreign competition, but their pool of high quality labor that was affordable pulled them through.
Forget GDP. Use median income, or better, median disposable income PPP. Look it up, its easy to find. That extracts taxation and cost of living from incomes. How much are Germans actually paid? Answer is: considerably less than Americans overall, and that is leaving out millionaires-and-billionaires.
What the Germans have that the US doesnt today is reasonable employment prospects from top to bottom, though in this the US situation was considerably better than Germany right up to 2000-2001, and equal up to 2008.
The other big difference is social. Germans are quite a lot better at BEING poor, if they are poor. The poor look much less poor, even if their financial condition is comparable. They behave better, their neighborhoods of poverty are less terrible-looking, they have many fewer criminals. Yes I have been to Ossi parts like Leipzig.
R&B, you clearly do not understand paleoclimatology.
Once you've fallen into the correlation = causation trap, it is hard to find yourself out of it.
The human mind is good at finding correlation. Science is supposed to help us identify causes, but of course global warming science does not consist of observations of repeatable experiments. That's why the IPCC expresses its opinions on AGW as having "confidence levels", rather than being true. And confidence level is really just an opinion.
This a mind unsubtle enough to buy the courtroom line that it was ok to poison the defendant's victim, because clearly the stroke was going to kill him anyway!
Or maybe the dose wasn't high enough, making it ok to slip the powder into his drink!
You are a fool.
1. Astronomical bodies that lack atmospheres lack climates.
2. CO2 and related industrial compounds contribute to that climate more than its other principal constituents.
3. CO2 has correlated closely enough with past geological climate changes to not deny its causative role.
4. More than half of humanity and the vast majority of its economic productivity are located along coastlines.
5. The rate of lost land-based glacial ice is vast and unprecedented for the holocene.
Only a moron would take those observations and decide to prioritize giving dying, mature extraction-based industries the free-for-all profits scheme that dismisses all that in favor of their bottom line. Or a serf. A serf would also do that.
Nyamujal,
Re Toqueville - exactly right. There is nothing like perspective.
I keep bringing this up with, say, US education policy. Thats one giant area with a "not invented here" syndrome.
That's nice buwaya. If you like radioactive fish and radioactive wild boar and no place in a densely populated country to store waste with long half-lives, I suggest you petition the Trump Administration to make your community a prime storage site for the stuff, and also to make your community a nuclear power plant (huge jobs provider) and also a fracking site. Because Oklahoma didn't have nearly the number of earthquakes that, thanks to fracking, they do now!
Earthquakes and fission reactors go together as well as chocolate and peanut butter. Hey, those are your two favorite power resources, right! I say every conservative should declare half the country a fracking-and-fissioning power experiment, poke enough holes in the crust to blow out their methane-riddled tap water and increase seismic activity a few thousandfold, and see how many meltdowns they can withstand! It will be fun! I know you conservatives really like living on the edge. Just think of how much your property insurance will cost! It will be awesome!
Fracking and fission reactors (and Alberta tar sands) go together as well as conservatives and corporate payments to Republican congress critter election campaigns.
It's environmentalism and conservation at its best, folks.
"You are a fool. "
The debating technique of insulting everyone in sight and declaring your superiority, especially after shouting a statement that is no longer accepted by most not dedicated to the leftist view of capitalism. Some climate hysterics have even admitted that the target is capitalism
As for Inga, she is welcome to make a fool of herself.
Good day.
Check out what conservatives are doing to the Canadian prairies, folks! Thanks to their willingness to ship that muck through Native American lands and the XL/DAPL pipelines!
Great conservationists, those conservatives! The landscape never looked better!
Added bonus: They also support energy industries that set your tap water on fire, don't tell you what chemicals they're putting into the ground where your water table is located.
@Nayamujal: "There's a reason why people still read de Tocqueville."
Yes, and the reason is his work is still read is that he came to observe what was most distinctive about American democracy, not to lecture Americans on how they needed to emulate European (much less Libertarian Utopian) values. I might have interesting outsider observations on India, but I would never presume to tell Indians what the core values of the BJP are.
"The debating technique of insulting everyone in sight and declaring your superiority....."
The man has absolutely no self awareness.
Your 6:10, R&B, seems to consist entirely of falsehoods and tautologies.
Not particularly convincing to a person who believes that reason is necessary to discover the truth.
People who use the term "butthurt" to criticize are definitely projecting something about their own physche.
...especially after shouting a statement that is no longer accepted by most not dedicated to the leftist view of capitalism. Some climate hysterics have even admitted that the target is capitalism
Who the hell even knows what that means? Economics is economics, every regulation is a law that affects economic activity of some sort (including anti-murder statutes), you can make money off of anything (including being a hit man or bodyguard - industries strongly affected by anti-murder statutes), and again, how much glacial melt has happened and is it possible to continue without affecting, if not the oceans, the ecosystem upon which we rely? How has something other than ocean rise affected agriculture/habitation in the South Pacific, Bangladesh, Miami Beach, hurricane frequencies?
You are denying multiple lines of evidence just so that you can come out in the open and admit that you think money (for Big Oil) is more important than that industry's impacts.
Is the concept of an ecosystem also "left wing propaganda?" How about the importance of a stable/predictable climate on agriculture in our own holocene era? Nearly every successive year for the past five have been the new hottest on record, and spring came to the U.S. this year earlier than ever.
How much do you have to deny/ignore/dismiss just to make your inane Big Oil pitch as if Big Oil were the end-all-be-all of economics? And again, tell me how completely you want to severe whatever science has to say about the obvious link between atmosphere (which the moon lacks) and climate (which the moon also, oddly enough, lacks)?
How much glacial melt is occurring and at how fast a rate?
Do sunspots regulate the moon's climate, Michael K?
Yes, you are a fool. That's not a debating technique. That's a sign that your purpose is to dissemble, and that I'm onto you and have no patience for it. You might waste your own time and your grandchildren's future by denying them a sustainable planet in which to live and that's fine. Your choice.
But don't pretend that I'm going to agree with you to deny away thousands and thousands of facts and observations all leading in the same direction, while you fail to account for how it is that you managed to convince your gullible, amoral self that single one of them is wrong.
If you are not a fool then you are a liar. There's just no two ways about it. You've had countless opportunities to demonstrate otherwise, and fail to do so every time.
"Don't you love being lectured on core Republican values by someone born and educated in New Delhi? Recovering and explaining the core values of the Republican Party: one more job Americans can't or won't do."
Ha. Exactly. As someone who started as a "Reagan Republican" in the 1980s, I'm constantly amazed at how "open borders" "Free Trade" and "hating Russia" somehow have become "Core Republican Values".
Immigration was rarely discussed by Reagan in 1980 or 1984. When he passed an Amnesty, I assumed it all part of a deal that would end illegal immigration by enforcing the law. And Reagan never believed in "Free trade" since he bailed out Chrysler and made the Japanese build auto plants in the USA. Finally, we didn't hate "Russia" we hated the "USSR" and Communism.
Ritmo,
I said nothing re nuclear plants on this thread, but for what its worth, having a passing familiarity with them, and the industry (I have a nuke eng minor on my BSME, and a long expired (foreign) cert as a watchstander) -
I'm in California, which has nuclear power plants, and in SoCal they wish they had more of them, having electricity shortages since shutting down San Onofre. For stupid reasons CA has the most expensive electricity in the country, not a small reason why industries have been abandoning CA (the LA basin had quite a decent Mittelstand you know, but not valued, and deliberately driven away; would not have happened in Germany) and why the quality of life has declined in the Central Valley, airconditioning becoming less affordable.
CA has no history of tsunamis of the size of Fukushima.
Your 6:10, R&B, seems to consist entirely of falsehoods and tautologies.
Your statement above "seems to" be bullshit.
You haven't demonstrated how a single one of them is false. And I don't think you know what a tautology even is. I don't think it means what you think it means. I'm getting you to think about trade-offs and unassailable observations, and you can't deny them away like a good little Exxon Mobil serf, so you just make a silly blanket dismissal that mangles even the meaning of the accusation to dismiss.
Not particularly convincing to a person who believes that reason is necessary to discover the truth.
People who believe in reason already agree with me. That's not the point. I'm making an exhibit of why someone like yourself, who obviously doesn't believe in reason, is wrong.
Nuclear power is great, buwaya. I'm not arguing with you there.
I just think you should be a good citizen and agree to manage the disposal/storage of the 24,000 year half-life Plutonium waste personally, since you're such a fan of forcing the utility on everyone.
Nevermind the fact that you'll only be living for a fraction of that time. But since when do Republicans care about creating problems that they don't intend to stick around long enough to safeguard against!? Hahahahahaha. They love sticking their problems on others. Just love it. It's their favorite thing to do.
I think Michael K is really onto something with this, "Be nice to me or whatever you're saying is false," declaration he makes.
I don't know why MK expects people to treat him respectfully after he daily insults anyone he perceives as holding an opinion in opposition to his own. Then when others push back he seems surprised and hurt and flounces off. It's a pattern with this guy, just my observation. Good discussion, sorry to interject, but MK just begs to be thrashed, with his insults and air of superiority, that he obviously is so unaware of. Sheesh...
I think Michael K is really onto something with this, "Be nice to me or whatever you're saying is false," declaration he makes.
I think you really are crazy. One time you sound educated then you go off on these rants.
Dog walking time.
Thanks for proving my point, you nasty old curmudgeon
More evidence that Ritmo is crazy.
About 15 years ago, Germany embarked on an ambitious plan to re-engineer how it got its electricity. Its goals were noble, but that alone hardly guarantees success. Let’s take a look at those goals and see how they compare to the results so far.
One of the main goals was to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and cut carbon dioxide emissions. Germany also wanted to boost its portfolio of renewable energy. As a coal-rich country, these were major challenges. So it forced utilities to buy electricity from renewable sources (wind and solar) at above-market rates and regardless of whether the electricity was needed. This subsidy could last through 2020. It’s been a boon for solar plants and wind turbine operators. In 2009, for example, utilities paid eight times the market price for electricity if it came from a solar panel. It was also a good deal for Chinese plants making solar panels.
Now, I am going to walk the dog.
Miami Beach, AFAIK, has seen an eleven-year hurricane drought, or longer. The longest drought since, possibly, the 19th century.
As for rising sea levels and Bangladesh, IIRC their real problem is- land subsidence - land is sinking, geologically, some of this may be due to pumping groundwater but it seems this is an ongoing natural effect in any case; loss of silt due to less flow from the Ganges (dammed and feeding irrigation upstream) , so the delta is dropping back; land erosion in the coastal areas due to greater tillage and conversion of land to agriculture; loss of coastal swampland (Sundarban), which absorbs silt and helps build land, as well as mitigating tidal effects.
Actual sea level rise seems speculative especially as such confounding factors need to be isolated. And future sea level rise forecasts depend entirely on models that are dependent on other models.
Flounce!
The progs are out for Michael K. A fury grounded in envy at an accomplished person, a life well lived. Look carefully at progressive anger and a trembling resentment will be evident. It must be painful to be possessed like this. Especially when stoned.
Nyamujal: An outsider's perspective can be very valuable. There's a reason why people still read de Tocqueville.
Lol. As if any random outsider is anywhere near the level of a de Tocqueville.
As if there has been an "outsider's perspective" anywhere near the caliber of de Tocqueville, ever. Let alone some axe-grinding libertardian dingbat.
We have buwaya. An Althouse commenter who provides better "outsider" perspective than anything available "professionally".
If people still read de Tocqueville they would most certainly not give the time of day to the likes of Dalmia.
Ritmo,
If someone gave me that job, and moreover paid me commensurate with the responsibility, I would accept in an instant!
This is in truth a minor engineering problem, in the context of every other energy system waste/logistics/maintenance problem.
Life is problems, which is why engineers exist.
It is seen to be worse, somehow, not for any objective reasons but because of non-rational fears, the invisible death rays. Regardless that they never seem to kill anyone.
However, this blog's comments sections aren't his. Stop acting like a crotchety old geezer
Nearly 25 percent of the comments posted here are from Ritmo (30 of 127) -- who is, yes, together with you one of the regular combox discussion killers.
"Ritmo certainly can kill off an interesting conversation."
That's the beauty of the Blog Comment Killfile: I haven't seen a Ritmo comment in years, except for when other people make the mistake of engaging and quoting his screeching. Apparently he's saying a bunch of stupid shit here, as usual. Whatever.
Green hysterics and left-wing Hollywood - I want you all on stationary bicycles generating power... chop chop.
except for when other people make the mistake of engaging and quoting his screeching
When he changes names, it's easy to get suckered into reading his comments -- until someone IDs him, then you are able to just skip over him.
Frackings enemies (and of Alberta tar sands) seem to have been heavily subsidized by Arab governments, and - ominous music - Russia. Look up Rassmussens (Nato chairman) statement on Russia paying anti-fracking activists.
No high-mindedness in this, its all about oil and gas prices.
The Al Gore - Qatar episode was a remarkably open payoff.
What the Germans have that the US doesnt today is reasonable employment prospects from top to bottom, though in this the US situation was considerably better than Germany right up to 2000-2001, and equal up to 2008.
German blue collar work is subsided in ways that are not always obvious. One reason so many skilled Germans are available is the government spends heavily on advanced training for workers in high tech manufacturing. That's why Germany dominates tooling and the manufacture of anything with bleeding edge precision or exotic metals.
It works for them, but they couldn't pay for it if they weren't running an export economy, and we can't all be net exporters. The only reason they've gotten away with it is the European Union makes other European countries into somewhat captive markets.
I enjoy Ritmo's and Inga's comments. They make me feel sophisticated and statesmanlike. Plus I love watching Lefties shit themselves.
Catastrophic debt has been the secret of Trump's business success. Why wouldn't he tell Republican fiscal-responsibility scolds to go to hell? We'll all be dead when the bill comes due.
"Catastrophic debt has been the secret of Trump's business success."
Another lefty troll.
Paco, how does the killfile work ? Is it on the browser or the blog ?
It will be a relief when Leftists like TTR declare those with different political preferences enemies of the state to be exterminated. Get on with the Final solution since killing us is really just an act of self defense.
Miami Beach, AFAIK, has seen an eleven-year hurricane drought, or longer. The longest drought since, possibly, the 19th century.
As far as you know, nobody knows anything. The place has been flooding regularly now for years.
Jesus.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article107959967.html
https://therealdeal.com/miami/2016/04/07/miami-beach-property-values-may-fall-as-sea-levels-rise-experts/
So much for local control. The Republicans will now have to tell local papers that they need to change their reporting on all this flooding so that it can now conform to Scott Pruitt's Environmental Destruction and Dissembling Agenda.
It will be a relief when Leftists like TTR declare those with different political preferences enemies of the state to be exterminated. Get on with the Final solution since killing us is really just an act of self defense.
Just get out of the way and admit that you have no business running an organization that you hate and say that you think shouldn't exist. Who the hell does that anyway? Just leave the government. Failing that, just end gerrymandering so that fair elections and acquisitions of power can take place and let democracy do what you fear: The thing it's supposed to do.
You can't lead, you're horrible followers (except for the Exxon Mobil agenda). You need to get out of the way. Obviously a lunatic like Trump took over your party for a reason. Time to let the rest of it go also.
Just let it go. You and the government: It's like a bad relationship. An abusive relationship.
Just let go of it. Set it free. Let the people's parties run things for a change.
Frackings enemies (and of Alberta tar sands) seem to have been heavily subsidized by Arab governments, and - ominous music - Russia. Look up Rassmussens (Nato chairman) statement on Russia paying anti-fracking activists.
No high-mindedness in this, its all about oil and gas prices.
The Al Gore - Qatar episode was a remarkably open payoff.
Note the level of drama, paranoia, and conspiracy in this statement.
Here's a conspiracy: Why do you hate Native Americans so much? Why do you want to endanger their communities?
You could just subject them to smallpox instead. But something has to be in it for Exxon, right.
That's the beauty of the Blog Comment Killfile: I haven't seen a Ritmo comment in years, except for when other people make the mistake of engaging and quoting his screeching. Apparently he's saying a bunch of stupid shit here, as usual. Whatever.
Oh, they do that a lot. Apparently they're not as aware of their inability to best me in a debate as you are.
You definitely deserve congratulations for understanding how far you are from being up to the task.
Nearly 25 percent of the comments posted here are from Ritmo (30 of 127) -- who is, yes, together with you one of the regular combox discussion killers.
Lol. Says a guy who never posted a memorable comment here. Ever.
Hey, if you want me to comment less, start saying more intelligent things. But all Michael K, etc. can up with is conspiracy, ego and ignorance.
He does it to himself. What do you guys expect me to say? Oh, an ignorant lie. THAT'S interesting! Let me let it slide!
I'd have to become a Republican to do that.
The progs are out for Michael K. A fury grounded in envy at an accomplished person, a life well lived. Look carefully at progressive anger and a trembling resentment will be evident. It must be painful to be possessed like this. Especially when stoned.
So many lies to debunk, so little time.
Let me get this straight: Before evaluating the truth/falsehood value of a claim, you first feel a need to evaluate the wealth/status of the person making it?
That must get tiring. Do you take a look at your own bank account before confirming that the sky you saw today actually looked blue to you?
"Is it on the browser or the blog ?"
It's a browser plugin. You can load it from here, at least the Chrome version. It has (at least one) annoying quirk on Blogger blogs, like this one; it works on the full blog posting links (e.g.) but not on the "XX comments" links e.g.). So if that's how you're used to viewing comments, it won't do you much good – you'll just have to "collapse comments" and ignore the stinkers.
Six comments in a row! Ritmo sure is gassing away today.
Thanks. Bye Ritmo.
Paco Wove has provided the right wing secret sauce for how they became so secure in their ignorance. Hopefully the Trump administration will apply this plug-in to NASA, the EPA, the NPS, and every other agency honorably doing their work honestly and objectively - despite the direct opposite direction in which the administration's agenda is geared to take things.
Sea level rise on the US East coast is a very long term linear trend, and AFAIK as per tidal guages does not show a recent increase to justify predictions of disastrous effects. Or no more disastrous than what threats are already baked in due to dangers resulting from regional weather.
All the scares are due to global warming model predictions, and sea level models based on those models.
@Angel-Dyne
"If people still read de Tocqueville they would most certainly not give the time of day to the likes of Dalmia."
I agree. Hopefully they wouldn't pay any attention to the likes of Milo either.
Thanks. Bye Ritmo.
I'm glad technology has invented a way for you to stick your fingers in your ears and yell, "Nah nah nah," while still feeling like an adult.
All the scares are due to global warming model predictions, and sea level models based on those models.
Is the fact that you need an atmosphere to have a climate in the first place also a "model?" How is climate regulated on objects without an atmosphere, like an asteroid, the moon, etc., etc., etc.?
Let the record show that I never cared if a liar like M K read my comments, and had rather wished he never had in the first place. His obsessive, whining responses to them were as annoying as any of his other lies.
But it's good he has an electronic nursemaid now. He'll feel less injured and I'll have to put up with less lashing out.
Conservatives need their "safe spaces," too. How nice that they've found a way to have them.
@The Toothless Revolutionary
I agree with you man, but at some point you need to stop trying to convert people on the internet. A lot of the people here are old and set in their ways.
Unless and until TTR starts killing conservatives in self defense, as a sort of Final Solution, I will doubt the seriousness of his histrionics.
"Let the record show that I never cared if a liar like M K read my comments, and had rather wished he never had in the first place. His obsessive, whining responses to them were as annoying as any of his other lies."
Yes! I hope he includes all the Unknowns with private profiles that he so often gets bent out of shape by in that Killfile App! What a joy it will be to not have him address any of us anymore.
The more you know about how public affairs are actually conducted, the more paranoia seems like common sense.
Im not constructing plots here, other people have found the plots, nothing needs to be made up.
As for Exxon, consider, say, General Electric or a half-dozen well funded solar or "alternative" companies, including Elon Musk's, all of which depend, entirely, on government policy for their markets, making other people pay them rents. All together its a case of corporatism worthy of Mussolini.
Step away from the pipe, Ritmo.
@buwaya
"The more you know about how public affairs are actually conducted, the more paranoia seems like common sense.
Im not constructing plots here, other people have found the plots, nothing needs to be made up.
As for Exxon, consider, say, General Electric or a half-dozen well funded solar or "alternative" companies, including Elon Musk's, all of which depend, entirely, on government policy for their markets, making other people pay them rents. All together its a case of corporatism worthy of Mussolini."
Let's assume you're right about this conspiracy. What's wrong with switching to solar and other renewable sources of energy? What's wrong with funding R&D in this space?
@buwaya, some parts of the government are switching to green energy out of necessity:
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/how-the-u-s-militarys-tech-is-going-green-to-save-live-1792858567
That you have an atmosphere, and a biosphere, and for that matter a planet with oceans in orbit around a star, doesnt mean you understand it, or can predict what all that messy bunch of interactions are going to come up with.
That deficient understanding is what the "models" are. At this point it is hubris to claim to predict climate or sea level 20 or 100 years out, the system is not well understood and there is insufficient data. And the people doing the predicting are, unfortunately, not quite honest enough to disclose their uncertainties, and above all they seem to have strong personal and institutional incentives to predict the worst case they can manage.
I agree with you man, but at some point you need to stop trying to convert people on the internet. A lot of the people here are old and set in their ways.
Good point. But dishonest propagandists should never be able to get off without being called out. Some of these things are really important, and generations from now people will want to know how the reactionaries were allowed to get away with killing the planet and almost everything people need to be sustained for our quality of life to continue. We look back today on so many people and movements who stood up for the right things thousands of years ago, before the civil war, as the labor movement was formed, prior to WWII, etc., etc., etc. Future generations will need to know that there were people today who cared about them also. Even if the gated community dwellers like Michael K and his ilk were too powerful to stop them from destroying all the things that future generations would need to live.
That you have an atmosphere, and a biosphere, and for that matter a planet with oceans in orbit around a star, doesnt mean you understand it, or can predict what all that messy bunch of interactions are going to come up with.
That's a good point. We have all these things, they all exist, and clearly you don't understand their significance.
Again, if atmosphere doesn't regulate and allow for the existence of a climate, then why is it that asteroids and the moon don't have one?
Nyamujal,
Because someone needs to pay for it. "Green" energy has given California almost 2x the cost of electricity than the US average. This raises the cost of living, repels businesses, lowers peoples incomes and standard of living.
And, note, before the green nonsense California was already zero-emissions for electric generation for all reasonable purposes, working with a mix of nuke, hydro and natural gas. Well, between those three nearly 100%.
That deficient understanding is what the "models" are. At this point it is hubris to claim to predict climate or sea level 20 or 100 years out, the system is not well understood and there is insufficient data. And the people doing the predicting are, unfortunately, not quite honest enough to disclose their uncertainties, and above all they seem to have strong personal and institutional incentives to predict the worst case they can manage.
It is "hubris," I suppose to claim that giving someone an LD50 of a poison (or dose lethal to 50% of subjects) will kill him.
And yet, you're still legally culpable if you go ahead with it.
Attempting to murder the planet and getting lucky with an unknown variable that keeps it from happening, doesn't make you less culpable for trying.
Nyamujal "What's wrong with switching to solar and other renewable sources of energy?"
You mean aside from an inability to handle peak load? Or disruptions from cloudy or mindless days? Or the biological hazards inherent to the production of the solar paneks?
Or the fact that you are comfortable with government taking by threat of force what some people have and giving it to others? Color by numbers fascism.
TTR,
Self defense is your excuse. Get to killing because of politics. I despise your laziness.
Mindless is an auto-correct of windless.
Leviathan will squash you like a bug. Here it comes... for Birkel.
I concede I am not smart enough to understand what you are getting at Ritmo.
I can understand the concept of an orbit, for instance, but I cannot calculate one accurately, being as I dont have the math and specialized knowledge to deal with the dynamic complex curve it actually is. Thats why, in a previous career, we hired an astrophysicist from Berkeley to calculate the precise geometry (or more precise geometry) of circular holes we were drilling. Because, for our purposes, our required standard of precision, simple models wouldnt do.
And the standard of precision required in climate models, vs the data and knowledge available, is extreme, and out of reach.
Blogger Nyamujal said...
@The Toothless Revolutionary
"I agree with you man, but at some point you need to stop trying to convert people on the internet. A lot of the people here are old and set in their ways."
That isn't what Ritmo is doing most of the time. He is unconciously trying to drive people who disagree with him away. It takes a lot of patience to get past his personal attacks which obviously a lot of people don't have and it devolves. For the most part we all do the same thing to people that disagree.
I am probably the only person who finds the threads he is on more entertaining. For that matter I think I see potential with you too.
If I get free of the kids I look forward to the coming discussion of CO2. Hopefully you all have something better than what's above though.
But having a human race on the planet is an LD dose anyway.
And your poison model fails if your goal is the welfare of the poison. My mere existence is "poison" to somethings somewhere no doubt.
And you have no way of calculating the dose, even less what the LD is.
@Buwaya
"Because someone needs to pay for it. "Green" energy has given California almost 2x the cost of electricity than the US average. This raises the cost of living, repels businesses, lowers peoples incomes and standard of living. "
Energy isn't the sole contributor to high cost of living. People still seem to want to move to California over a lot of other states where the cost of energy is a lot lower, like North Dakota or West Virginia. I suspect that the cost of energy in CA will go down over time once the initial investment amount is recouped. I live in New England which has the highest energy costs in the country, but that mostly has to do with heating costs in the winter. Most of those systems are oil and gas based.
#55
You haven't read Hobbes. You have no understanding of Smith, Buchanan, Stigler or the rest.
I enjoy reading your comments in the same way watching gibbons can be amusing. Do, please, proceed.
@Birkel
"You mean aside from an inability to handle peak load? Or disruptions from cloudy or mindless days? Or the biological hazards inherent to the production of the solar paneks?"
Energy storage solutions from Tesla help deal with that issue. It's only a matter of time before cheaper solutions show up. I don't understand the urge to hold on to fossil fuels. A good, stable energy solution must include all available options and that includes renewable, nuclear, and gas.
"Or the fact that you are comfortable with government taking by threat of force what some people have and giving it to others? Color by numbers fascism."
There's no threat of force. Out of the top 10 companies in the planet four are oil companies and two are automobile manufacturers. Who do you think has the clout to influence the debate about energy, some dinky solar companies or Exxon?
Nyamujal: "Energy isn't the sole contributor to high cost of living.
This is bad faith argument. It is a straw man of your own construction.
You are comfortable with government taking by threat of force what some people have and giving it to others. Own that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/20/revealed-the-biggest-companies-in-the-world-in-2016/
Actually, that's 5 oil companies and 2 car companies.
"You are comfortable with government taking by threat of force what some people have and giving it to others. Own that."
What is the government taking with the threat of force? What do some people have that is being taken and given to others?
But having a human race on the planet is an LD dose anyway.
Not a defense. People are mortal, and destined to die. Doing things intentionally or negligently to hasten their deaths is still unethical.
I find your response ethically embarassing.
And your poison model fails if your goal is the welfare of the poison.
I guess your goal is the welfare of the poisoner, Exxon Mobil. But mine is not.
My mere existence is "poison" to somethings somewhere no doubt.
Not in normal quantities. CO2 will kill you, but only once it gets above a certain amount. But before that amount it's still killing off the majority of the biosphere that we rely on.
And you have no way of calculating the dose, even less what the LD is.
We have unprecedented consequences in the form of incredible glacial melt. You don't watch pre-death symptoms of a poisoning and say, "Let's wait until he's closer to death to treat."
Unethical. Irresponsible.
Birkel: Leviathan is taking my stuff!
There's no threat of what because people send their tax dollars to be disbursed to political cronies like Elon Musk out of the goodness of their hearts.
You stopped typing but I finished your sentence for you.
Nyamujal,
I am speaking of electricity prices. "Energy" is a much bigger question. California also has expensive motor fuel.
Because of the weather heating is a relatively minor expense.
But air conditioning in the summer, in much of CA, is a major expense and that runs off electricity.
There are a lot of other costs of course, but none should be dismissed.
If I wanted to make something in the US, for many reasons including the price of electricity, I would not even think of California. Or the Northeast.
The effect of everything on costs of living, and costs of doing business are cumulative.
The CA prices have built in financing costs, which are extreme. The problem with these projects is that replacement costs are also likely to be extreme. Their service life is not like that of a nuclear power plant, which are mostly now rated at over 60 years, nor is their replacement cost as extremely low as a gas turbine generation plant, the new ones of which are ridiculously cheap and almost portable.
Nyamujal,
On your other point, CA internal (within the US) net migration is strongly negative, and has been so for almost 20 years.
Residents of California are highly prone to leave. The CA population is constantly replaced from abroad.
"There's no threat of what because people send their tax dollars to be disbursed to political cronies like Elon Musk out of the goodness of their hearts."
Their tax dollars are appropriated by their elected representatives. Representatives who don't represent your point of view because your side lost in a state like CA. There's a lot of shit I don't approve of that my tax dollars go to. I have the option to campaign and convince others to change what I don't like. Heck, I could even get a thousand other people, raise money, hire a lobbyist and get that lobbyist to help write some legislation.
BTW, Exxon has way, way more political clout than Elon Musk. I hope I don't have to remind you that our SOS is a former Exxon CEO.
Fair enough. They won.
Its interesting, that petroleum companies dont suffer from "global warming" hysteria, nor do they contribute to finance anti-global warming propaganda - because there really isnt any, in the mass media nor any well financed university departments. Almost all the scholars in the anti-camp, in fact, have been forced out, like Judith Curry. And none of these people have been paid hundreds of millions like Al Gore.
The truth of the matter is that these big oil companies are not really in the path of global warming activists, and wont be for a very long time, because energy isnt simply energy. There is no real substitute for petroleum, as over the last 50 years its become nearly totally a vehicle fuel. The only way that can be replaced is with electricity.
And the way they are going, electricity will remain expensive and thats just fine with Exxon.
The real target of global warmers is electric power generation, and you wont find the real goat there in your top ten. Prices in that world are passed through to consumers, the ratepayers. You and me and, oh, all sorts of small and medium businesses.
@ Nyamujal
You are precisely demonstrating that you are comfortable with crony capitalism, a.k.a. fascism. Own it.
@buwaya,
"If I wanted to make something in the US, for many reasons including the price of electricity, I would not even think of California. Or the Northeast. "
New England has a lot of companies that consume a lot of energy - Semiconductor fabs for instance. After Texas and CA, NE is probably the biggest high tech manufacturing hub (with the exception of Oregon which has Intel). There are tonnes of other boutique fabs that do Aerospace and defense work in NE. Manufacturers can be, and usually are coaxed to relocate with juicy incentives some of which include energy discounts. Access to top talent helps too. California and NE has that going for it.
"The CA prices have built in financing costs, which are extreme. The problem with these projects is that replacement costs are also likely to be extreme. Their service life is not like that of a nuclear power plant, which are mostly now rated at over 60 years, nor is their replacement cost as extremely low as a gas turbine generation plant, the new ones of which are ridiculously cheap and almost portable."
I defer to your experience with CA financing costs as that's something I don't know a lot about. However, I remember reading that over the next 20 to 40 years, the Levelized Cost of Energy for an existing nuclear plant is only 3¢/kWh. For an existing gas plant the cost is 5¢/kWh, and for an existing coal plant it’s 4¢/kWh. I think a reasonable energy market plays a role too. Washington for instance has a nice low energy cost of 8 cents per KWH thanks largely to Hydro and Nuclear power. Also, fossil fuel plants suffer from outages here in the winters. Coal stacks get frozen and diesel generators simply don't function in low temperatures. The railways, which mostly have diesel run trains, were pretty fucked a few years back when we had a record breaking winter.
That's a lot of random data, but the point is that we can do better and pure fossil fuel sources are not a great option. You can't and shouldn't put all your energy eggs in a single basket. I'd be happy with a 50 - 50 renewable to fossil and nuclear split.
@buwaya
"Its interesting, that petroleum companies dont suffer from "global warming" hysteria, nor do they contribute to finance anti-global warming propaganda - because there really isnt any, in the mass media nor any well financed university departments. "
Actually, that's not true. They were researching global warming in the 80's. But the American companies hid or didn't publicize their research. Some European ones did. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming
@Birkel
"You are precisely demonstrating that you are comfortable with crony capitalism, a.k.a. fascism. Own it."
Whatever dude.
Nyamujal,
But that was thirty years ago.
Do they do any of that now?
If they did, you would see it. Theres nothing anti-global warming on TV, ads in print, or even much in stories and op-eds, other than quoting some individual opponents; nor do you see web ads, and as far as I know, there isnt a single "anti" university department left, other than the US government financed satellite temperature operation at Huntsville.
So, why is that? You are Indian, I am Filipino, we both have ethnic superpowers of paranoia and cynicism. So use yours on this question.
Nyamujal,
Manufacturing has been fleeing CA for 20 years, and nearly nothing new is coming in. These things take time. But the business climate consensus is clear.
The ideal electric generation source is nuclear, with breeders, or perhaps the Indian-promoted Thorium cycle. Its very cheap per Kwh. This would be baseload, so will need some system to deal with peaking. Hydro is excellent if available, Natural gas is very cheap to implement and is very low-emissions.
Guess what? That was California in 1986, when I came here.
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