ADDED: Trump also outperformed the Real Clear Politics poll average in each of the 5 states.
AND: The NYT's poll analyst Nate Cohn observes that his "demographic-based models systematically underestimated Mr. Trump’s performance."
Mr. Trump’s overperformance was broad — spanning nearly every kind of county across all of the states in play.And, just when Indiana was getting important, "He might not even need Indiana if he maintains the loyalty of the unbound delegates who said they would vote for the winner of their district in Pennsylvania, or simply if he wins big in California. And after Tuesday night, a big win in California looks quite possible."
That raises the possibility of a broad shift in Mr. Trump’s favor over the last month....
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58 comments:
Wow. Simply, wow.
Good day for Trump and Hillary.
I, for one, look forward to the Donald's opening statement in his first debate against Hillary. I fully expect him to turn to her and say, "Hillary Clinton is a lying, unrepentant fraud of a political hack who has made hundreds of millions of dollars for herself and her family by selling her political influence to the highest bidder, foreign or domestic. She has no business being any closer to an official position of trust, authority and responsibility than the defendant's chair in a federal courtroom."
Let Hillary complain about her "personal space" being violated and his attack on her vagina-ownership, I'm betting such an opening would change the tenor of the campaign for the better in an enduring manner.
Mikee
The whole world knows that your statement is factually correct but apparently many Americans don't care. I can't believe she even gets 40% of the Dem vote.
I, for one, look forward to the Donald's opening statement in his first debate against Hillary. I fully expect him to turn to her and say, "Hillary Clinton is a lying, unrepentant fraud of a political hack who has made hundreds of millions of dollars for herself and her family by selling her political influence to the highest bidder, foreign or domestic. She has no business being any closer to an official position of trust, authority and responsibility than the defendant's chair in a federal courtroom."
That would be great but he'll probably say something like this instead:
"Hillary, you're a big fat liar. Nana nana boo boo!"
Perhaps an appearance together will allow Clinton to explain what she promised to Trump, in exchange for his large donations to her campaigns and to the Clinton Family Foundation. And Trump can explain if he got his money's worth in terms of political consideration and favorable treatment of his "businesses."
Again, Trump is the front runner and Cruz and Kasich are train wrecks!
As always, no charge for my keen grasp of the obvious.
>
"Hillary, you're a big fat liar. Nana nana boo boo!"
Hey, this is how he is winning the Rep nomination so why stop now.
Shiloh take your own hint, that's how Trump is going to beat the grifter and felonious traitor.
@Mickee send that to Donny. Maybe instead of rambling and being otherwise inarticulate he just might learn to get to the point.
Chuck said...
"Perhaps an appearance together will allow Clinton to explain what she promised to Trump, in exchange for his large donations to her campaigns and to the Clinton Family Foundation. And Trump can explain if he got his money's worth in terms of political consideration and favorable treatment of his "businesses.""
Go vote for Hillary. We all know she is more like the oligarch pets you supported in this campaign.
Cruz is eyeing a win in Indiana next week to deny Trump delegates needed to lock up the nomination before the Republican National Convention
Yeah, that'll happen. I thought before that Trump had a good chance to win Indiana, now that they've announced that Bobby Knight will be campaigning with him, I'm sure he's going to win.
But then again, Hillary is now attractive to the Koch Brothers because she is a strong cog in a Wall Street first system.
Trump has to beat the Ultra Conservative ideologues brainwashed by Limbaugh and the gaggle of Limbaugh wannabees, while he beats the United Nations World Government guys at the same time.
He will have earned the Presidency the hard way.
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
"That would be great but he'll probably say something like this instead:
"Hillary, you're a big fat liar. Nana nana boo boo!"
Trump understands how to break through the media and get a message out to the voters. Part of the Republican smart set problem is they don't know how to do this and they resent trump for it.
If you want to cater to the equivalent of Republican nerds and make a bunch of money off of rich celebrity chasers with a neat cruise trip every year you write a rag like NRO. You talk down to all of those idiots out there who should just die and go away.
Trump is actually widening and inspiring the voters. It is time for some of the political activists who actually want to help to get on board and let all of the parasites go support hillary.
Well that's just great. Trump won every county in every state, none of which will vote Republican in the general election, just like NY. 2,300,000 votes cast for Republicans yesterday, 2,985,000 cast for Democrats.
1,300,000 votes cast for Trump, 1,700,000 votes cast for Clinton, 1,240,000 cast for Bernie. If you're a Republican, this looks like a train wreck.
Why did Cruz do so badly with voters in these states yesterday?
"If you're a Republican, this looks like a train wreck." Putting it mildly.
@Dan Hossley: To be fair most of those states have been deep blue for ages. Nobody with an "R" in front of their name has a prayer in those parts during the general.
All these "predictions" remind me of 2012 when many cons here, along with the blog mistress, were firmly convinced the skewed polls were wrong and mittens was going to win quite easily.
And all these "skewed" predictions were the day before the election.
So recapping, many Althouse cons don't believe political polls, especially the day before an election, and will tie themselves into knots to frame the debate in favor of their preferred candidate/nominee.
This is why Althouse is so entertaining the year before a presidential election.
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To be fair, many Dems/libs follow this same process as reality is such a difficult concept to grasp for the true believers.
1) Denial
2) Anger
3) Bargaining
4) Depression
5) Acceptance
Which is what the current Rep party establishment/hierarchy is going through regarding Trump.
Mary Beth,
While living in Indiana, I discovered that it is an at least two University state. Campaigning with Bobby is not going help much with the Purdue or Notre Dame voter.
"many Americans don't care. I can't believe she even gets 40% of the Dem vote."
I doubt many even know about these things. The MSM has been protecting her for 25 years,
The ones who found out were the Bernie voters.
"And Trump can explain if he got his money's worth in terms of political consideration and favorable treatment of his "businesses.""
This is what Silicon Valley supports Democrats and Trump can explain that, too. Maybe even make some points about H1B visas.
Shut up about the donations, Chuck. My grandfather was a businessman. He donated to both. It's what you have to do.
You seem almost willfully ignorant. And stop with the national polls at this stage, too. Did Carter beat Reagan? No? Then why do you treat polls at this stage as gospel? Do not underestimate Trump. I figured you would have gotten at least THAT much by now.
Every state is the GOPe's last stand. The nomination was sewn up after the escalator ride.
Chuck said...
Perhaps an appearance together will allow Clinton to explain what she promised to Trump, in exchange for his large donations to her campaigns and to the Clinton Family Foundation. And Trump can explain if he got his money's worth in terms of political consideration and favorable treatment of his "businesses."
4/27/16, 10:08 AM
Both are valid questions. I guess part of the issue is which actor is more "corrupt"? Someone that offered a bribe or someone that takes it?
"Life long republican" Chuck ever so gently dances up to the edge of indirect Hillary criticism but makes sure that, in the end, only Trump is attacked.
As would be expected of any "life long republican", like Chuck.
TCom: "Shut up about the donations, Chuck. My grandfather was a businessman. He donated to both. It's what you have to do. You seem almost willfully ignorant."
But TCom, you don't understand.
If you simply assume a different set of base assumptions regarding "life long republican" Chuck's purpose here and then work backwards you'll see that willful ignorance is not what is driving some of "life long republican" Chuck's comments.
After Trump gets the nomination, he will take a dive so Hillary can win. I believe that has been the plan all along.
CWJ: "Mary Beth, While living in Indiana, I discovered that it is an at least two University state. Campaigning with Bobby is not going help much with the Purdue or Notre Dame voter"
Actually, despite all 3 of those Universities in Indiana being "important", only IU and Purdue really matter due to attendance demographics (numbers, home states, current residences). Not that Notre Dame doesn't matter at all. It does. Just not as much.
Qwinn: "After Trump gets the nomination, he will take a dive so Hillary can win. I believe that has been the plan all along."
This may be one of those circumstances where "that has been the plan all along", but at the last moment, the fighter doesn't take the dive and the "fixers" are none too happy about it.
I can't begin to express how excited I get at the mere thought of what the screen rights to that story will be!!
Who will play Donald? Who will play Bill? (any sack of straw can play Hillary)
Oh, I insulted Hillary.
Sorry "life long republican" Chuck.
Todd, I don't think that Trump bribed anybody. I think he's too cheap. And besides, why would Trump -- a condo and golf course builder -- bribe a US Senator?
If Trump was bribing anybody, it would have been Manhattan fire inspectors.
No; Trump was buying personal visibility. Party invitations. Attendance by political celebrities at his functions. The guy is a reality-show star/celebrity. Not a businessman, like one of the Kochs or Buffett or Soros or Don Blankenship.
And as if on cue, (when isn't he?), Chuck manages to get in a direct attack on Donald while ignoring Hillary!
You know, just like every other "life long republican" would do.
Well played Chuck, well played.
Drago, you and Huma both need therapy for your Hillary obsessions. Maybe you two could get a group rate.
"After Trump gets the nomination, he will take a dive so Hillary can win. I believe that has been the plan all along."
"I think the dog and that man are working together," says the sheep.
"Enough with your conspiracy theories. Trevor!"
mccullough said...
Why did Cruz do so badly with voters in these states yesterday?
They don't want him to be President more than they want Trump to be president.
Plus the likability factor. Who would you rather spend a day with? Trump or Cruz? Or Hillary . . . .
I am feeling more positive toward him. I always figure that if I feel something, there is some percentage of Americans who feel the same way. I have stopped listening to him closely, or even reading anything about what he says, but I think it is a tragedy that the best the Tea Party could come up with was an opportunist like Cruz.
Chuck , the "life-long" Republican doesn't think that Hillary is the elephant-legged set of cankles in the room.
Trump continues to run well in heavily Democratic states.
Of course he's not running against a Democrat yet. That might be a factor.
Well that's just great. Trump won every county in every state, none of which will vote Republican in the general election, just like NY. 2,300,000 votes cast for Republicans yesterday, 2,985,000 cast for Democrats.
For deep-blue states that doesn't look so bad. If there is significant Hillary revulsion among Bernie voters (and I have to admit I don't think there is) that might be within striking distance.
How could Cruz or Kasich (or Ryan) win the nomination without incurring the enduring enmity of most Republican voters? It's time to fold their tents. Better luck next time.......,,Trump will present a far more substantive argument during the first debate than "nanny nanny boo boo". He will complain about the pervasive smell of stale urine and ask for a break so that Hillary can go to the bathroom and change her Depends. If she starts coughing, he will ask that the debate be terminated on compassionate grounds. He will claim that one of his rich friends gave him the text of her Goldman Sachs speech and will quote liberally from it--especially the parts about tax breaks for sex resorts.
Trump would never be my choice for president, Hillary is however so totally devoid of any morally redeeming value, that I can easily choose Trump over her.
As much as I like Cruze, The Donald is the only candidate who can easily defeat Hillary. It really will be great Reality Theatre watching/listening to them try and grind each other into the dirt.
In the mean time Hillarys life hangs in the balance, as Obamas DOJ could lower the boom on her with little more than an eye twitch from him.
She's certainly not His pick, but neither is Sanders. Does Obama have the political muscle to both remove Hillary, and replace her with someone other than Sanders?
I think it's a possibility.
The pressure has to be intense on Comey, now.
When does the word start to leak out ?
Democrats do not vote in Republican primaries, but some years they do vote Republican in the general election.
Michael K said @ 12:38: "The pressure has to be intense on Comey, now.
When does the word start to leak out ?"
That is starting to sound like Custer at Little Big Horn, wondering if the cavalry is coming.
I greatly fear this is a Clinton lock. Any other result would require (1) Sanders draining her base with a strong run as Independent and/or (2) Trump starting to sound like a grown-up.
Perhaps an appearance together will allow Clinton to explain what she promised to Trump, in exchange for his large donations to her campaigns and to the Clinton Family Foundation. And Trump can explain if he got his money's worth in terms of political consideration and favorable treatment of his "businesses."
So its a win-win situation.
Yeah, that was an amazing night for Trump and his supporters last night.
I think Republicans are just tired, they see that it's either Trump or a brokered convention, and they prefer Trump.
I hadn't thought about how Purdue fans might factor in. Maybe there'll be some chair throwing!
YAY! Donald won every county, with Hillary and Bernie getting about twice the votes he got. Err, Yay!?
If you want to cater to the equivalent of Republican nerds and make a bunch of money off of rich celebrity chasers with a neat cruise trip every year you write a rag like NRO.
I have never understood who the hell would voluntarily pay money to go on one of those things.
Who wants to go on a cruise where the "entertainment" is Charles Krauthammer giving a speech?
I'm on vacation, on a cruise ship, I want a vodka tonic, good music, and a book that is total mind candy.
YAY! Donald won every county, with Hillary and Bernie getting about twice the votes he got. Err, Yay!?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEbIk7ygzkk
Ron Winkleheimer: "….want a vodka tonic…" How is that set of preferences inconsistent with the NR cruise? Charles K or whoever else can drone along at the front of the room; you sit in the back with the V&T getting just as much as you want; and you go home with a tote bag full of virtue signaling.
Presumably Dems do the same.
This is not going to end well.
At this point, I am fairly confident that will be the conclusions regardless of what happens going forward: President Hillary, President Sanders, President Trump, President Cruz, or President Kasich. We are going to get the government we deserve. All aboard the crazy train. If we are fortunate, the country might survive, or at least part of it.
@Owen
You are paying a premium to listen to someone drone on about politics, while on vacation. You are of course correct, its virtue signaling, conservative style.
David wrote:
Trump continues to run well in heavily Democratic states.
Of course he's not running against a Democrat yet. That might be a factor.
This is an interesting observation.
Achilles wrote:
Trump understands how to break through the media and get a message out to the voters. Part of the Republican smart set problem is they don't know how to do this and they resent trump for it.
Trump really does have a talent for making "unspinnable" statements. It's almost Teflon-Reaganesque.
"We've made the Middle East more unstable and chaotic than ever before," Trump said. He singled out Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton's handling of the deadly attacks on a U.S. compound in Benghazi, Libya, and repeatedly linked the former secretary of state to what he sees as the failures of the Obama administration to show strength around the world.
This is going to be fun.
For those commentators who consistently point out that Hillary + Bernie got way more votes than Trump, consider this: Hillary + Bernie got way, way, way more votes than Cruz or ... that other guy.
I'm on the Board of a bank in Florida. After our meeting today, we had a casual conversation about politics. Four guys in the room, all over 50 and all accomplished professionally (one from Virginia, one from Pennsylvania and two from Florida). All voted for The Donald in their primaries. Not sure what that means, but I thought I would have been the only one.
Donald Trump didn't overperform. Nate Cohn underperformed.
I read the transcript. All I could think about was Glengarry Glen Ross - Always Be Closing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4PE2hSqVnk
And did it work? Yes it did. Elements of the speech are receiving some favorable commentary on Democratic Underground.
As this wears on, the Donald is going to be getting stronger rather than weaker. He's a good salesman. He is also probably a patriot, and the problem for the Dems is that Hillary's tactical plausibility is going to look like a nice set of steak knives next to a gold watch.
Further, there is some actual plausibility and logic behind the Donald's themes.
Just a thought.
How important is the republican primaries in solid blue states and why?
If a republican candidate wins resoundingly with 60% out of 875k cast while the democrat wins with 58% of 1.8 million votes cast and the state is in all probability going blue, how does that state's primary matter to republicans?
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