"Even" is an opinionated and — I would say — wrong word.
"He's at 19% to 12% for Ben Carson and Scott Walker, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 9% for Ted Cruz, and 6% for Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio."
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30 comments:
PPP Poll is all you need to say for me to say don't pay attention.
"wrong", how?
""wrong", how?"
Many folks assume that he does well because he gets so much attention, not despite it.
Unlike professional pols, there's no long process of media producers to campaign staff where all sorts of organizing and planning happen to setup appearances. Trump just calls in and wings it.
The other big name pols could choose to wing it, but they count on all the layers of isolation. They've learned that that is the "smart" thing to do. At some point there may be some rethinking.
Hmmm. If opinionated, I agree with the wording.
I think the thinning of the herd will be nice. I'm surprised Santorum is doing this poorly in Iowa, but his former supporters are probably on the Huckabee train. I think it is important to look at both Iowa and New Hampshire at the same time to get a better idea of the post debate effect.
What controversy?
(Not paying attention, really, to Trump)
Let Walker be Walker! How could America not fall for the wonderfulness that has overtaken Meadehouse?
Surprise, surprise Iowa voters like a man who offers to fight and win for them using leverage against their enemies. Why that is almost like the President's job description.
After 7 years under the heel of a Fifth Columnist President using leverage against the American way of life, that would be like FDR's Happy Days Are Here Again.
Obama has used every leverage he can to defeat the USA in every issue under a Media Propaganda Screen. That makes the Media the enemy too. Trump has made us an offer to win again, and that is an offer we cannot refuse.
traditional guy,
Did you order a MAGA hat yet?
Can folks use the portal to get to this:
http://shop.donaldjtrump.com/category-s/111.htm
We'll see if the "support" one receives in summer when talking to the nice robot voice on the phone is still there when it's 15 degrees out in the snow in Bum Fuck, Iowa at the VFW hall all night for the caucus next winter. Because that's what actually matters in the actual election process, not this fake "news" stuff that we are subjected to to keep reporters from being bored, and TV ratings up in the summer.
I've never been to Iowa.
I imagine it's pretty much flat. Corn.
I can't name its capital.
I should have applied myself more in grade school.
Walker must be wondering what more he has to do to win favor. He destroyed everything good in Wisconsin. Where's the love?
Article at Politico:
"Ted Cruz: ‘Foolish’ for GOP to criticize Trump: He says that it is dangerous to dismiss a candidate with this type of drawing power."
So we have at least two clever guys in the race for the Republican nomination.
One, of course, is Trump. Look at the polls.
The other is Cruz. He has positioned himself perfectly. If Trump drops out, Cruz is in a good position to inherit Trump's supporters. If Trump wins the nomination, Cruz is in a good position to become the vice-presidential candidate on the ticket.
I don't expect Trump to run for reelection if he becomes president. As VP, Cruz would be in a good position to get the Republican nomination for president in 2020.
Good things come to those who plan and wait.
Politico link:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/ted-cruz-foolish-for-gop-to-criticize-trump-121241.html
James Taranto, author of the Wall Street Journal's "Best of the Web" online column, calls such cart-before-horse analysis "The Butterfield Effect" after a famous practitioner of the same: Fox Butterfield, wholong ago noted that prison populations continued to rise "despite" crime rates dropping.
It is the inversion of cause and effect that makes it funny.
It is the inability of progressives to understand cause and effect than makes it sad.
How is the littlest Bush doing helping out with Puerto Rico's corruption hitting a stone wall?
At least there is now some issue that excites JEB. It had looked like he had gone into hibernation molting his snake skin to become a NEW BUSH while the Rove/ Murdoch dirty tricks team finished off Trump for the sweet boy.
Yeah, but it's PPP so who cares?
Seriously, they pretty much make up numbers all year long, then modify their results to match everyone else's pols as election day approaches. They're a left wing group that pretends to do polling.
Go see 2014 results. All the pollsters are using "clustering" in an attempt not to look bad post election. The places where the 2014 predictions were the most off were the ones where pollsters "clustered" around PPP polls that hadn't had a chance to cluster around someone else, first.
What has Ben Carson done that was memorable? His debate performance was as bland as Scott Walker's. At least Walker has a track record in government.
PS Ben Carson's tithing tax was cartoonish in its naivety.
I think Carly is better positioned to pick up voters if Trump were to drop out. She's a fighter, too, but with a lot more class.
But The Donald is not going to drop out. He's running, either as the R nominee or as 3rd party.
Well, he "leads" in the sense of being the highest individual vote getter (or poll taker)
The Club for Growth PAc is split among five candiidates and encouraging people to contribute through them to any and all of them: Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubo, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.
Carly's gains are actually more impressive than Trump's lead.
Walker will win in Iowa.
People who say that Carly or Cruz will pick up Trumps votes are missing the point I think. While Cruz would pick up my vote, I think I'm pretty squarely in the minority.
There are 5+ youtube video's put out recently by these two black women sitting in what appears to be their home. Based off of how they speak about Trump, I'd say they are Democrats but they haven't come right out and said it yet, to my knowledge. They are funny as heck and pretty typical black voters, from what I can tell.
Take that plus the information that a lot of Trump voters are evenly mixed between right, left and center, I don't see how any one candidate would benefit from Trump dropping out.
P.S. Althouse, I think you should check these two black ladies out. I'm sure you'd laugh and have something poignant to say. You'll have to search google, or youtube, though, as I don't have a link at the moment.
Walker is yesterday's news.
He will never be able to recapture his gravitas after 2 hours of standing next to Trump. Poor Scotty came off like Howdy Doody. Too bad Buffalo Bob Smith wasn't around to feed him a line.
The Trump summer offensive is working better than Team Jeb! ever dreamed it would.
Black assholes matter to leftists.
"Trump scores a big lead [in Iowa] among those who didn't watch the debate, at 21%, double the standing of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who finishes second at 10%. But among those who watched the debate, Trump does less well, tied with Walker at 14%."
So says USA Today's polling, which also says:
"By 2-1, 55%-23%, those surveyed say watching Trump in the debate made them feel less comfortable rather than more comfortable with him as a candidate for president. A 54% majority also reject Trump’s complaints that he was treated unfairly by the Fox News anchors who served as moderators; 41% agree with him."
The only polling that matters is the polling which shows Trump is going to lose.
We have to give Beldar hope. He had a tough day yesterday over at Instapundit. Where is Romney when you need him?
Here is a link to one of the YouTube videos Eric mentioned:
The Viewer's View: "Megyn Kelly Starts a War With Donald Trump at the Debate"
https://youtu.be/DP6S3KE2DaI
Blogger D.E. Cloutier said...
Here is a link to one of the YouTube videos Eric mentioned:
The Viewer's View: "Megyn Kelly Starts a War With Donald Trump at the Debate"
https://youtu.be/DP6S3KE2DaI
8/11/15, 4:19 PM
I have a sneaky suspicion those gals aren't serious, but man, they are funny.
Eric: "they are funny"
Trump should use them as an "opening act" before some of his campaign speeches around the country.
Dear Professor Althouse,
I offer you the serious and hopefully helpful suggestion that you devote a separate tag to "PPP poling."
You do some nice commentary with polls; and you know as well or better than I, how often your readers have chastised you for what they think is your credulous referencing PPP's work.
It's hard to figure how "Dubious" didn't fit in to become part of PPP's name and acronym.
I once emailed PPP about a particular poll on a seemingly silly topic and asked who commissioned the poll. "Nobody," was the answer. They do polling on their own, to gin up discussion, which will hopefully include innumerable repeated mentions of "Public Policy Polling." I do not necessarily hold it against them, that they are basically a Democratic Party contractor, thought that is true. But they are a uniquely goofy polling firm, without much of a record for any great polling successes, apart from doing stuff that gets them mentioned in the human interest corners of the news and the man-bites-dog sections of your local paper.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed
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