"In fact, it’s those hardliners who are most comfortable with the status quo. It’s those hardliners chanting 'Death to America' who have been most opposed to the deal. They’re making common cause with the Republican Caucus."
Said President Obama.
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124 comments:
"They’re making common cause with the Republican Caucus."
I can't wait for this asshole to shuffle off the stage.
The people Obama is making a deal with are the ones leading the chants.
Wow he is a scum bag. Is anything too low for that cretin? I don't think so.
As Kate at Smalldeadanimals says, "Not a Muslim! Noooooo!"
I would love to see somebody make Hillary comment on that statement. But nobody will because making Hillary uncomfortable in any way is verbotten!
But when some of those Iranian nonbelievers pretested election results in 2009, he screwed them. Conservatives wanted support for the democrats.
Now his Secretary of State is protecting Khamenei by telling Congress not to "screw" him. GOP is ready to screw K and his crew.
So who's on which side?
For the first time in U.S. history, we have a president who is not on our side. We are screwed.
He is a disgusting and horrid human being.
Moral equivalence, how does it work?
Barack Obama, I hear, puts on his pants one leg at a time. He has that in common with Hitler.
President Asshole.
People who support this person are the enemy.
But at least he's forcing the Democrats to take responsibility, right?
"They’re making common cause with the Republican Caucus."
-- I hope this isn't a real quote.
But opposing Bush on Iraq did not mean making common cause with Saddam Hussein or, later, al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Of course.
Because. That's why.
Remind me again - when is dissension "the highest form of patriotism", and when is it "aiding and abetting the enemy"??
Imagine if Bush had said the Dems in their anti-war protests were making common cause with Saddam Hussein.
The MSM howling would STILL be going on.
As I recall, Obama promoted then sacrificed the moderates to the hardliners in the last uprising. He did something similar in Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, etc.
This is way past Buchanan's role in making sure that the armories in the Southern states were fully stocked with munitions and arms and arranging for a substantial part of the Army to be on a wild hare mission running down polygamists in the Utah Territory in the run up to the Civil War. Officially Worst.President.Ever
Seriously, fuck that "man".
Obama, YOU are on the side of the hardliners who want this deal.
Barack Obama, I hear, puts on his pants one leg at a time. He has that in common with Hitler.
As was pointed out elsewhere, Obama opposed the war in Iraq.
So did Saddam Hussein.
Would he be amused for somebody to say he found common ground with Saddam?
This just in Mitch McConnell goes to Senate floor and agrees witht the President and promises to do nothing. Speaker Boehner offers statement promising to discuss this matter during next round of golf with the President.
Is this the same Republican Caucus that just gave this asshole that Asian trade deal over the objections of his own saintly party? I believe they are the same Republicans that gave him a tax increase ("just a little bit more") on the "millionaires and billionaires" a few years ago. Let's see, they also just gave this "likeable" President, Loretta Lynch? I could go on, but you get the point! Bipartisanship is a beautiful thing.
It's not like the Ayatollah is serious when he says they will annihilate us. He's just kidding. He's really a moderate who will fall if this deal doesn't go through. The POTUS and Hanoi John say so. Don't be a Republican warmonger. Approve that sucker!
OMG, what's that noise? It's the turnip truck. They don't see that I have fallen off and they are leaving without me.
He thinks he's a diarist at DailyKos
President Son of a Bitch, you mean.
President O: "Just because Iranian hardliners chant ‘Death to America” does not mean that that’s what all Iranians believe."
Yeah the ones that don't believe it are Christians rotting in Iranian prisons.
Just because the guys in charge of the army, the ones arming terrorists, the ones working to get a nuclear weapon chant death to America doesn't mean every Iranian does.
The truly sad thing isn't that Obama thinks your a dumbass. The truly sad thing is that there are dumbasses here that believe him.
Blessed Barry threw in with the hardliners back in 2009 during the Green Revolution, right?
T Rellis said...
Just because the guys in charge of the army, the ones arming terrorists, the ones working to get a nuclear weapon chant death to AMERICA doesn't mean every Iranian does.
No. It means that every Iranian better.
It's impossible to top dbp's self-evident observation at 3:44
I think he's the president that doesn't exist. If there's no such thing as a marinara pizza with mozarella, there's no such thing as a president who makes a deal that strengthens a major enemy and then says the domestic opponents of that deal are just like those who call for death to America.
Guy's an idiot.
Trouble is, those who disagree with the Grand Ayatollah had better keep their traps shut, or they will go to jail, or worse.
Obama has no "deal" as long as the ayatollahs says, we are in charge here, and we say Iran will never be dictated to by the infidel, and BTW, Death to America!
Also note that the imams have held from the time of the Crusades and before, that there is no sin in breaking sworn promises made to the infidel.
I mean, it's not like one ultra - conservative party full of religious famatics in the U.S. would call for the deaths of Iranians, right?
The only things that ever stopped the spread of Islam have been infidel armies, larger, or better armed and organized, than those of the caliphs, shahs, and sultans.
Obama and Planet Reality rarely connect. There's a reason why I turn the radio or TV off if this smarmy little poseur's voice or face appears.
Fuck you Obama you muslim born in Kenya.
I think the real story here is that Obama knows that the agreement is in trouble.
With his own party.
He doesn't come out with this type of incendiary rhetoric except when he's in trouble. That's his history.
If he only had to persuade a handful of people he wouldn't be throwing this nonsense out there. Scorched earth tactics.
If the Iranians who ARE on board with this deal are not the ones chanting death to America, why do we get their leaders coming out after the deal is struck saying America is a bunch of untrustworthy bastards, and they aren't going to stop what theyre doing.
"Side deals, shm'ide deals. Pass it to see what's innit. Listen to the kids with ipods..not the folks with the military and record of terrorism. Hey..gotta golf now."
@jacksonjay:
"Blessed Barry threw in with the hardliners back in 2009 during the Green Revolution, right?"
Members of the so called Green Movement widely support Iranian's right to have a nuclear energy policy. Neocon obsession with the greens was only ever as a means of fulfilling their ridiculous regime change desire for Iran. Because listening to them in Iraq and Libya has proven such a success and resulted in conditions much more amenable to our interests.
Original Mike said...
"I can't wait for this asshole to shuffle off the stage."
Oh, he will leave office (I hope). But he is not going to be shuffling off the stage. He's a young man and he will be keeping a high profile the rest of his life. If we have a Republican President in 2017 expect him to be on the air every day making nasty comments and snide remarks like this. In fact, even if Hillary is President (God forbid), I wouldn't be surprised that he did it to her, too. His sycophants in the US and world press will hang on his every word and hold him up as the most wonderful President in US history, giving him all the air time and column inches he needs to make his point. I expect for him to start lining himself up to be the Secretary-General of the UN so he can continue with his anti-American rhetoric and his sympathy for murderous regimes before an adoring audience. No, he is not shuffling off the stage. He's going to be around for a long, long time. Get used to it.
"-- I hope this isn't a real quote."
Not only is it real, you should see the little smirk on his face.
@MountainMan - After Iran explodes its bomb maybe he'll have the good sense to retire to the golf course. (I can hope, can't I?)
Wut?
This is not a "treaty" because as kerry said "It is physically impossible to pass a treaty anymore". This although several treaties have been passed under Obama.
It is an "agreement" rather than a treaty to get around the requirement for advice and consent by the Senate.
I need to go look it up again but FDR did something similar with Stalin at Yalta. they made a secret "agreement" so he would not have to ask the Senate or even tell them. Our agreements with Stalin (30mm dead in the gulags) always worked out well. Right?
Herbert Hoover discussed this in volume 4 of his memoirs which I had read several years ago. I was reminded of it today when I ran across something I wrote at the time elsewhere.
Herbert Hoover was an extremely successful and interesting man. Orphan and high school dropout as well as the first student to enroll at Stanford. Highly successful mining engineer, Minister of Mines in China for a time. retired in August 1914 to help WWI refugees and probably saved 20mm people from starvation.
Probably the best writer of any president, though TR comes close. His memoirs are extremely interesting, especially the 1st 3 volumes.
John Henry
"They’re making common cause with the Republican Caucus."
Ah, that much-ballyhooed presidential temperament again.
If any of the Republican candidates had any sense and stones they would announce that right after the inauguration the deal is cancelled. And that any company doing business with Iran is banned from doing business in the US. Somebody tell garage that he exceeded his daily stupid quota today.
It does not matter. There is no deal; there never was going to be one, and the powers that be in Iran have been telling Obama that straight up from day one - all they wanted was those damned sanctions gone, and they have achieved that at this point, regardless of anything the Congress does.
This is abiut the most remarkable example of "diplomacy" I have ever heard about.
Yeah, that smirk pisses me off every time he uses it. It's such a "fuck you" to the US.
He is such an asshole.
Douchiest President of all time.
Just because NAZIs chanted 'Death to the Jews' does not mean that that’s what all Germans believed.
1) Why don't we ever believe when evil tells us what it plans to do? There were German Jews still fooling themselves that they were good Germans and so safe, even after the camps were opened.
2) It doesn't take "all Germans" to kill 12 million people in camps, half of them Jews. It just takes the people in control.
Unless there is regime change first, the Iranians will get the bomb and use it. Whoever he bombs, probably Israel will retaliate. While we wait, Saudia Arabia, Kuwait and Yemen will try to buy bombs from Pakistan, who will probably sell them at least one apiece.
But what the Hell, he's already got the Nobel.
Remember, Mr. President, you sided with the Iranian hard-liners six years ago when you had the chance to support the Iranian people in getting rid of them. Instead, you will leave the hard-liners in place now as you did then and also give them the financial wherewithal to maintain their regime.
Meanwhile, the President seems completely unable to grasp that criticism of a deal does not mean that one prefers the existing state of affairs. The Iranian hard-liners are such that they are likely to publicly voice objections to ANY deal with the US that doesn't involve converting en masse to Islam and executing anyone who doesn't. It doesn't mean they like the existing state of sanctions on their country. The same with critics of the deal - to hate the deal does not mean the status quo is desired, only that it is preferred over what is proposed. And regardless of what the President thinks, peace deals do have the potential to make matters worse.
I would love the President to be right on this one, but I would sooner trust the Greeks with my money than the Iranians with any nuclear technology.
Not one comment that denies the point that the cons and the Iranian nuts both want the deal dead.
Did folks notice that bho called out the current fear peddlers as the same folks who lied us into Iraq?
Scaring cons = unlimited war
@Gahrie:
"Unless there is regime change first, the Iranians will get the bomb and use it."
You don't have on shred of evidence for this. It's a completely evidence-free proposition that warmongers incessantly invoke to justify more aggressive action towards the regime. US foreign policy has been a total failure in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, and the same people who championed all three of those interventions are lecturing the rest of us about Iran.
Yeah, Farmer, we don't have a shred of evidence except every word that has come out of the Iranian leadership for forty years. It's not like they've been subtle.
Obama had this to say:
“The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy or some form of war. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not three months from now, but soon.”
Kind of like how J Farmer frames the quest for Iran to get nukes in the first. place.
If we don't have the deal, maybe a war will occur tomorrow, or a few months from now. Or a few years from now. Or never. This then is just peace mongering.
"one ultra - conservative party full of religious famatics in the U.S."
It's nice to see the lefties finally woke up and are on the defense line for their guy. I sure hope you are around when the nuke goes off in NY Harbor.
"You don't have on shred of evidence for this"
Not a shred. Just 40 years of "Death to America." And then there is this.
Consider the Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, which is the regime’s military and ideological spine and controls an estimated 20% of the Iranian economy. This includes perhaps half of all government-owned companies, such as construction firm Khatam Al-Anbia, which is involved in building everything from city metros to oil pipelines; the Telecommunication Company of Iran, where an IRGC-controlled company has a 51% stake; and thousands of smaller front companies.
“To do business in Iran, foreign companies need an Iranian partner, which for large-scale projects often means firms controlled by the IRGC,” Reuters’s Pariza Hafezi and Louis Charbonneau reported in July. That means the Revolutionary Guards will benefit from the one-time windfall when Iranian oil profits now held in escrow are released, and going forward as foreign companies race to get into the Iran market.
How will they spend the money? In April, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave the order that “all organizations, including the Ministry of Defense, the military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, should increase their military and defense preparedness and increase their combative and mental capabilities on a daily basis. This should be taken as an official order.”
At this point what difference does it make ?
@Tarrou:
"Yeah, Farmer, we don't have a shred of evidence except every word that has come out of the Iranian leadership for forty years."
So quote some of the Iranian leadership in this regard...
@jr565:
"Kind of like how J Farmer frames the quest for Iran to get nukes in the first. place."
Uh, no. Iran has a right under the NPT to develop nuclear materials. The deal places Iran under even more stringent monitoring for behavior they are perfectly entitled to engage in under the NPT. There is no way to bomb the program out of total existence, so if you are arguing for invasion and occupation, then make that case. If not, explain to us how you hope to achieve the goals you espouse.
"Not a shred. Just 40 years of "Death to America." And then there is this."
Nothing that you quoted is evidence that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon and then will use one as soon as they receive it. As for fears of Iran gaining some massive benefit from the increased cashflow, Justin Logan has already thoroughly addressed this bit.
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/how-washington-has-inflated-iran-threat
We also have 1,400 years of Middle East history.
There is nothing to show that these people are any different.
And they are themselves adamant that they are not.
Oh I get it, the Republicans are the real terrorists. Thanks for clearing that up, Mr. President.
Hope & Change, folks--you voted for it.
I suppose it's possible that a coalition of Google programmers and militant Persian feminists will take over from the tottering Ancien regime and that Obama's strategy will prove to be prescient and wise. People made fun of Reagan's SDI, but, in the end, that was what brought down the Soviet Union. Maybe Obama's easing of trade sanctions will be the final nail in thr Ayatollahs' coffin and his gentle measures will herald an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity in the Middle East. Then all the people here will really feel sorry for the mean things that they've been saying about Obama.
J Farmer,
The Green Movement was a protest against the election of Ahmadinejad. The protesters were mainly students. The motto of the Movement, "Where is My Vote", was not about clean, sustainable energy.
Obama ignored the Green Movement with the current "deal" in mind. He wasn't about to side with student protesters against the hardliners in the regime. Who can forget Obama's infamous Hot Dog Diplomacy in the aftermath of the Movement? Invite Iranian diplomats to July 4th cookouts!
Nice try on the neo-con revisionism, but no! You don't think regime change in Iran would be a good thing?
@jacksonjay:
"You don't think regime change in Iran would be a good thing?"
I am very skeptical of revolutionary movements, because they can quite easily morph into something even worse than what came before. This insight is the foundation of conservatism. Regime change in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya have all been strategic failures.
I should add that this survey from RAND is informative:
"Of those surveyed, 87 percent strongly favored Iranian development of nuclear energy for civilian use (see Figure 4.1). Only 3 percent of respondents strongly opposed developing nuclear energy for civilian use. In addition, 98 percent believed that the possession of nuclear energy is a national right. This finding suggests there may be widespread support for the civil- ian aspect of the nuclear program, which could be helping the Iranian government weather international pressure designed to curtail its program."
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2011/RAND_TR910.pdf
"87 percent strongly favored Iranian development of nuclear energy for civilian use"
Oh, I agree that Iranians, when surveyed (how and where were they surveyed, by the way ?) will mouth nationalist slogans.
It is significant that Iranian women are "voting with their uteruses" as they have the lowest birth rate in the mIddle east. Persians, unlike the Arabs, are a real country and society and I fear they will be destroyed as collateral damage to Obama's vanity project.
Remember when Obummer sat on his hands when the Iranian people were in the streets? There is something wrong with this man. He prefers the radical clerics to everyone else. He is one strange man.
It's good to know that those hardliners are uncomfortable with the status quo. And that it’s those hardliners chanting 'Death to America' who have been most supportive of the deal. And that they're not making common cause with the Republican Caucus.
@Michael K:
"Oh, I agree that Iranians, when surveyed (how and where were they surveyed, by the way ?) will mouth nationalist slogans."
Methodology is discussed at length on pages 31-41 of the report I linked to.
@Amadeus 48:
"Remember when Obummer sat on his hands when the Iranian people were in the streets? There is something wrong with this man."
What, exactly, could or should Obama have done? And how much difference do you actually believe that would have made? Even if the green movement got the president they wanted, aren't we continually told that the president is not a very powerful figure within the regime structure? Why would a newly democratic Iran do away with a nuclear energy program that enjoys broad support from large segments of the population?
For as much damage as Obama can inflict upon us, this is not the worst. Israel will certainly use nukes on Iran before Iran uses them on Israel or us.
Why any reasonable person would engage J. Farmer, "garage mahal", Inga (no matter the moniker) or any of the other collectivist (READ: Leftist) trolls is beyond me.
They deserve mockery and nothing else. Meanwhile, J. Farmer can pretend at honest, convicted blah, blah, blah... Douchebag.
Obummer did nothing. He did not speak out and condemn the police crackdown. He was more than willing to destabilize regimes in Lybia, Egypt, and Syria, but in Iran he did nothing.
Now he is arranging a multibillion dollar windfall for the "Death to America" crowd.
He is a strange man. He is a fool.
@Birkel:
"They deserve mockery and nothing else."
Oh grow up and stop acting like a petulant child. I have a different opinion than you on US foreign policy (oh heaven, forbid!). Is the editorial staff of The American Conservative collectivist? Is the Cato Institute? RAND? Even if I was a dyed-in-the-wool Marxist, it would be completely irrelevant to whether any statement I made about Iran or the deal was correct or not.
If all you can do is call people "collectivist," "leftist," and "douchebag," it suggests you are either incapable of making a counterargument or are too lazy. Neither of which speak very highly for you.
@Amadeus 48:
"Obummer did nothing."
Let me repeat the questions you ignored completely...
"What, exactly, could or should Obama have done? And how much difference do you actually believe that would have made? Even if the green movement got the president they wanted, aren't we continually told that the president is not a very powerful figure within the regime structure? Why would a newly democratic Iran do away with a nuclear energy program that enjoys broad support from large segments of the population?"
J Farmer Obama is a fool. And those who support them in this are fools. This deal is nothing but crap and actually even less than what Chamberlain got which in the end was still crap. Chamberlain wasn't a fool like Obama, he knew who he was dealing and was desperately buying time to rearm and in that he was successful. Obama got nothing for nothing. What he did do is open Iran for business when the craven Europeans and Chinese which amazingly stupid since they need the US a lot more than the US needs them. America can and should use its power and put the screws to them in a simple but very efficient manner. Us or them as trade partners. Take it or leave it. There no international cops or enforcements of anything so all of R Cook's international law BS would just be that, BS. That's the beauty of being a superpower, when you really want to do something, you can because no one else can stop you. So the question is why would we want to do this? The Iranians are not all sane. Not only the they hate the Jews but the hate Arabs. And Arabs hate Persians. Once the Iranians get the bomb, everyone else in the region will nuke up and that is in no ones interest. The Soviets were no doubt evil but they were not crazy and yet we damn near came close to nuclear war with them on more than one occasion. The Arabs and Persians are nowhere near as sane as the Soviets. This deal unlike any deal the ones with the Soviets has more holes than Swiss cheese and is laughable on it's inspection terms and merits. There is no there there. This treaty will not prevent any war but maywell accelerate a war.
Neville Chamberlain thought the same way Obama does.
Obama feels we can 'talk' to Iran and we can 'reason' with Iran and Iran will, you know, abide by agreements. And we know Iran has abide by their agreements about the same way Hitler and Nazi Germany abided by theirs (and Nazi Germany was ran by fanatics, just as Iran is.)
But like Neville Chamberlain, his 'peace in our time' is based on lies. And like Chamberlain, the war he professes he wants to avoid, he will only encourage.
And other nations, as well as Obama's own Democratic party, worry about that.
A president who was willing to destabilize Lybia, Egypt, and Syria should be willing to destbilize Iran. Instead, he is arranging multibillion dollar windfalls for them. I don't understand Obama. I think he has strange and foolish ideas. I think he is dangerous. I hope a sufficient number of Democrats vote against this foolish pact to bring Obama up short.
@cubanbob:
"That's the beauty of being a superpower, when you really want to do something, you can because no one else can stop you."
That is dead wrong. US power is constrained by any number of factors. I'll repeat--the last three wars the US has fought in the last 15 years have all been strategic failures.
"Once the Iranians get the bomb, everyone else in the region will nuke up and that is in no ones interest. "
There is no evidence that Iran is even pursuing a bomb. People on your side continue to casually make this assertion but never seem to provide any evidence for it. If you have some, I'd be more than happy to consider it.
"Obama got nothing for nothing."
So an intrusive inspection regime that will monitor not only the two mines were Iran is able to obtain uranium but the processing facilities and the centrifuges is nothing? Giving up 70% of its centrifuges is nothing? Giving up 97% of the enriched uranium is nothing? Limiting enrichment to less than 4% is nothing?
Have you read the analysis of the deal from people like Jeffrey Lewis of Arms Control Wonk blog? If so, how would you counter his positive appraisal of the deal?
@Amadeus 48:
"A president who was willing to destabilize Lybia, Egypt, and Syria should be willing to destbilize Iran. "
Right. Because a destabilized Syria and Libya have been tremendous success stories and not at all counter to our national interests. I think anybody who looks at Syria and Libya today and thinks it would be just great for us if Iran were in the same state is clinically insane. Even if Iran turned into a total representative democracy tomorrow, its population largely supports the country's ability to enrich nuclear material. How do you imagine a democratic Iran ever agreeing to a deal you would favor?
@Paul:
"But like Neville Chamberlain, his 'peace in our time' is based on lies. And like Chamberlain, the war he professes he wants to avoid, he will only encourage."
How will the nuclear deal encourage a war?
"Nothing that you quoted is evidence that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon"
Oh, for fuck's sake, they are sitting on a sea of oil.
Khamenei.ir
@khamenei_ir
This barbaric, wolflike & infanticidal regime of #Israel which spares no crime has no cure but to be annihilated. 7/23/14
#HandsOffAlAqsa
Hardliner rhetoric! He doesn't mean it!
President Barack Obama acknowledged Wednesday that Iran might use cash coming its way under sanctions relief to fund "terrorist organizations" but argued this is preferable to allowing it to develop nuclear arms.
@Original Mike:
"Oh, for fuck's sake, they are sitting on a sea of oil."
That is still not evidence for a nuclear weapons program, and it is certainly not evidence that if Iran had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. Nuclear research has implications for more than just energy production. There is also nothing wrong with diversifying one's energy supply. The majority of Iran's domestic energy production comes from natural gas, not oil.
So, Farmer, what do you make of President Projection predicting a bomb in 6 months IF Iran doesn't have a weapons program. Can they go from nada to nuked-up in 6 months? Is he just bullshitting or does he know something he is denying?
@jacksonjay:
"Hardliner rhetoric! He doesn't mean it!"
You have a nice way of ignoring inconvenient questions and moving on to other points. So let's take this up.
I have no doubt that given his druthers, Khamenei would be quite happy to see the Israeli regime eliminated. Wanting something and being willing to sacrifice one's self to achieve it are two very different things. Threatening nuclear annihilation was a big plank in Khrushchev's foreign policy. He threatened nuclear attacks on the UK, France, and Israel over Suez and less than 3 years later he was having dinner with Dwight and Mamie.
@jacksonjay:
"So, Farmer, what do you make of President Projection predicting a bomb in 6 months IF Iran doesn't have a weapons program. Can they go from nada to nuked-up in 6 months? Is he just bullshitting or does he know something he is denying?"
By the measure of "breakout time," the deal is a huge success. Iran under the deal would have a lengthier nuclear breakout time than it does now. Under the conditions of the deal, the breakout time would be around a year. Absent a deal, breakout time is two or three months.
I'll add that the 12-month breakout time is debatable, and others have said it is closer to seven or eight months. This would still be a longer breakout time than exists in Iran right now today. And remember, that is the amount of time required to produce enough weapons grade uranium for a single bomb.
I think you argued earlier that there is no evidence ("That is still not evidence for a nuclear weapons program") of a nuclear weapons program. So clearly, Iran has a nuclear weapons program. Clearly, it will be up to the Iranians to determine the breakout time. I understand that we will not be involved in the inspections.
What do you make of the fatwa that the President mentioned. You know the fatwa from the Ayatollah declaring that Iran would not produce a nuclear weapon. Why did we need this deal?
@jacksonjay:
"So clearly, Iran has a nuclear weapons program."
No, they do not, and mention of the breakout time does not contradict that. Any country capable of enrichment has a breakout time; that is not the same thing as saying they have a nuclear weapons program.
"Clearly, it will be up to the Iranians to determine the breakout time."
No, the Iranians do not get to determine the laws of physics. Agreement to this deal extends Iran's breakout time. No deal can provide a 100% guarantee. If that is the level of certainty required, then no deal would be acceptable. And in that case, Iran's nuclear program would be less restricted than without the deal.
Again, if you have a plan for Iran that would achieve everything you want, please share it with us.
"So clearly, Iran has a nuclear weapons program."
No, they do not,
What is your evidence for this? Everyone except maybe Putin, including the Iranians, knows the Iranians have a nuclear weapon program. You are the first person I have ever heard try to make the argument that they don't.
Wanting something and being willing to sacrifice one's self to achieve it are two very different things.
Unless, like many of their coreligionists, the Iranian leaders actually believe what they say they believe, which is that they will be rewarded in death for killing Jews and destroying Israel.
An awful lot of Muslims have been willing in the past to die for the chance to kill Jews and unbelievers.
You don't have on shred of evidence for this.
Yeah Yeah Yeah...and in 1938, we had no evidence that Hitler was going to conqueror Europe and kill all the Jews...except his words.
Why or why do fools like you never learn.
International Business Times, today:
Obama warned that if Congress kills the deal, Iran would speedily resume its nuclear weapons program.
"Without this deal, the scenarios that critics warn about happening in 15 years could happen six months from now. By killing this deal, Congress would not merely pave Iran's pathway to a bomb, it would accelerate it," Obama said.
Sounds like Obama disagrees with Farmer. Either Congress or Iran seems to be in the drivers seat, according to Obama. Approved by Congress, Iran waits 15 years. Congress rejects, Iran breaksout in 6 months.
So, you don't believe that a fatwa was ever issued by the Ayatollah, right? Obama has repeated that crazy claim for a couple of years now. Do you believe "anywhere, anytime" was just bullshit as well?
I think you have more faith in Obama, Khamenei, and the 99% of the rest of the world than I do. Apparently the American people have become skeptical of this great deal. Sounds like Ash Carter, Marty Dempsey and Crazy Clapper all have doubts. But, 99% of the world and all, and Farmer ....!
@J. Farmer:Agreement to this deal extends Iran's breakout time
If they bother to stick to it--and since we won't inspect them we won't know when they are breaking out.
No deal can provide a 100% guarantee. If that is the level of certainty required, then no deal would be acceptable.
Since we can't keep a master jewel thief from breaking in, we may as well just leave our front door open and the car keys in the ignition.
As a supporter of nuclear energy, I am confused as to why many of the people who seem okay with Iran having it block it at every turn here at home. Do they hate Iranian children?
@J. Farmer: You're pretty smart. I do not understand why you are falling for fallacies.
First, you say it's either a toothless agreement or WAR WITH IRAN !!ELEVENTTY!! like there is no continuum of possible outcomes which might be preferable to one or the other.
Secondly, you are saying Iran can be completely 100% trusted to mean what they say about a nuclear agreement but that all the stuff about Death to America and Jew-killing is just posturing. You never acknowledge the possibility that the Death to America and Jews is where they mean what they say and the nuclear agreement is just posturing.
@Gahrie:
"What is your evidence for this?"
It is a point of logic that you do not ask someone to prove a negative. I can no more "prove" that Iran does not have a nuclear program than you can "prove" that Santa Claus doesn't exist. You disbelieve in Santa not because he has been proven to not exist but because you have never been presented with evidence that convinced you he does exist.
"You are the first person I have ever heard try to make the argument that they don't."
Then you have not been following this issue very closely.
"The United States, European allies and even Israel generally agree on three things about Iran's nuclear program: Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is probably years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/us-iran-usa-nuclear-idUSBRE82M0G020120323
Here is Benny Gantz, Chief of Staff of the IDF from 2011-2015:
"[Iran] is going step by step to the place where it will be able to decide whether to manufacture a nuclear bomb. It hasn't yet decided whether to go the extra mile."
""If the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants, he will advance it to the acquisition of a nuclear bomb, but the decision must first be taken. It will happen if Khamenei judges that he is invulnerable to a [military] response," he said in the interview published on Wednesday.
"I believe he would be making an enormous mistake, and I don't think he will want to go the extra mile."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2012/apr/25/israel-benny-gantz-iran-unlikely-develop-nuclear-weapons
Here is Ehud Barak, former PM of Israel from 1999 to 2001 and defense minister in Olmert's and Netanyahu's government from 2007 to 2013:
"Defence Minister Ehud Barak was on Wednesday also taking a somewhat softer line on Iran, saying it had “not yet decided to manufacture atomic weapons” also suggesting the sanctions could work.
The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) had also claimed that Iran was likely to have abandoned its nuclear weapons program.
http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/20071203_release.pdf
@Gahrie:
"Yeah Yeah Yeah...and in 1938, we had no evidence that Hitler was going to conqueror Europe and kill all the Jews...except his words. "
Godwin's Law. You lose. Not to mention that the comparison between 2015 Iran and 1930's Germany is absurd on its face and contributes nothing to the actual debate on the relevant issues.
@Gabriel:
"First, you say it's either a toothless agreement or WAR WITH IRAN !!ELEVENTTY!! like there is no continuum of possible outcomes which might be preferable to one or the other."
I don't say this. But I do believe that critics of the deal should offer realistic alternatives and a means for achieving them. How would you get China and Russia on board for more sanctions if we walked away from the table? North Korea is one of the most isolated countries on the planet, and they continued with nuclear weapons development. So I judge sanctions, especially absent multilateral support, as being a poor option. Bombing them could slow them down but would likely result in them redoubling their efforts. Then there is invasion and occupation and all the resultant nightmares that brings. So, again, if you believe I am unfair in laying out the continuum, then make the case for the alternative. Everybody I have asked in this thread has been mum on the alternatives. If you have ideas, I am more than willing to listen and give my opinion.
"Secondly, you are saying Iran can be completely 100% trusted to mean what they say about a nuclear agreement but that all the stuff about Death to America and Jew-killing is just posturing."
No, I did not. I specifically conceded that no deal can provide 100% certainty. And I also conceded that given his choice, I am sure the Supreme Leader would like to see Israel gone. The results of Zionism in the late 19th and early 20th century are widely considered to have been a historic disaster for the region, and this view is shared by many on the Arabian peninsula and the Gulf Arab states who enjoy broad US diplomatic and material support. My point was that the notion that Iran is a suicidal martyr state is a myth and is again not backed up by the evidence. The deal does not require us to simply take Iran's word for it. There is an inspection regime. If your only argument is that Iran could cheat, that would be the case in any deal that was reached.
Godwin's Law. You lose
Fuck you.
My point was that the notion that Iran is a suicidal martyr state is a myth and is again not backed up by the evidence.
Except for all the suicide bombers and other attacks by Muslims...and the statements by the Iranians themselves.
You know your buddy Stalin never believed that Hitler would attack him either.
you're gambling with other people's lives with a busted flush asshole.
@Gahrie:
"Fuck you."
What a wit. Your mother must be so proud.
"you're gambling with other people's lives with a busted flush asshole."
As opposed to the advocates for the Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libyan wars? Do the tens of thousands of innocent dead people occupy space in their consciousness as well, or are they happy to whistle past that graveyard while recklessly advocating for even more aggressive US military action? You are beyond pathetic.
@Gahrie:
"Except for all the suicide bombers and other attacks by Muslims"
The 9/11 attackers were Saudis. Does that make the Saudi regime a suicidal martyr state? Pakistan? Bahrain? Indonesia? All Muslim. Are they all prepared to die for their beliefs?
It's so easy to say things when you don't have to be constrained by evidence or even knowing what you're talking about.
@Gahrie:
If you are so confident in your opinion, why aren't facts, reason, and logic enough for you? Why do you need to incessantly resort to the most juvenile of personal attacks? Are you that bereft of knowledge on the subject, or are you just clinically insecure?
Every day in some way this man debases the office that he holds. He is beneath contempt.
People like J. Farmer are arguing in bad faith. This took 15 seconds:
Mohammad Khatami, the former president of Iran: “If we abide by real legal laws, we should mobilize the whole Islamic world for a sharp confrontation with the Zionist regime … if we abide by the Koran, all of us should mobilize to kill.” (2000)
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “It is the mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to erase Israel from the map of the region.” (2001)
Hassan Nasrallah, a leader of Hezbollah: “If they [Jews] all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide.” (2002)
Nasrallah: “Israel is our enemy. This is an aggressive, illegal, and illegitimate entity, which has no future in our land. Its destiny is manifested in our motto: ‘Death to Israel.’” (2005)
Yahya Rahim Safavi, the former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps: “With God’s help the time has come for the Zionist regime’s death sentence.” (2008)
Mohammad Hassan Rahimian, Khamenei’s representative to the Moustazafan Foundation: “We have manufactured missiles that allow us, when necessary to replace [sic] Israel in its entirety with a big holocaust.” (2010)
Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of the Basij paramilitary force: “We recommend them [the Zionists] to pack their furniture and return to their countries. And if they insist on staying, they should know that a time while arrive when they will not even have time to pack their suitcases.” (2011)
Khamenei: “The Zionist regime is a cancerous tumor and it will be removed.” (2012)
Ahmad Alamolhoda, a member of the Assembly of Experts: “The destruction of Israel is the idea of the Islamic Revolution in Iran and is one of the pillars of the Iranian Islamic regime. We cannot claim that we have no intention of going to war with Israel.” (2013)
Nasrallah: “The elimination of Israel is not only a Palestinian interest. It is the interest of the entire Muslim world and the entire Arab world.” (2013)
Hojateleslam Alireza Panahian, the advisor to Office of the Supreme Leader in Universities: “The day will come when the Islamic people in the region will destroy Israel and save the world from this Zionist base.” (2013)
Hojatoleslam Ali Shirazi, Khamenei’s representative in the Revolutionary Guard: “The Zionist regime will soon be destroyed, and this generation will be witness to its destruction." (2013)
Khamenei: “This barbaric, wolflike & infanticidal regime of Israel which spares no crime has no cure but to be annihilated.” (2014)
Hossein Salami, the deputy head of the Revolutionary Guard: "We will chase you [Israelis] house to house and will take revenge for every drop of blood of our martyrs in Palestine, and this is the beginning point of Islamic nations awakening for your defeat." (2014)
Salami: "Today we are aware of how the Zionist regime is slowly being erased from the world, and indeed, soon, there will be no such thing as the Zionist regime on Planet Earth." (2014)
Hossein Sheikholeslam, the secretary-general of the Committee for Support for the Palestinian Intifada: "The issue of Israel's destruction is important, no matter the method. We will obviously implement the strategy of the Imam Khomeini and the Leader [Khamenei] on the issue of destroying the Zionists. The region will not be quiet so long as Israel exists in it ..." (2014)
Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard: "The Revolutionary Guards will fight to the end of the Zionist regime ... We will not rest easy until this epitome of vice is totally deleted from the region's geopolitics." (2015)
J. Farmer said...
@Gahrie:
"Fuck you."
What a wit. Your mother must be so proud."
I agree with Gahrie. Fuck you. I have friends that were killed by Iranian made weapons in Iraq. The Iraq that is now a shit hole because Obama abandoned it where women are rounded up and sold as sex slaves, where christians and other religious minorities are dying in the next genocide.
I wish we could ship you off to any other country that we didn't defend. You take your freedom for granted and take no responsibility for the misery and death your shitty policies create. There are thousands of better people than you rotting in Iranian prisons who tried to fight for freedom from the mullahs.
It's been my position for years that the Iranian government is one of America's greatest enemies, and in the struggle with them, the Iranian people are one of our greatest allies.
The president is right when he points out that many Iranians do not chant "death to America!"
Just the ones he makes common cause with.
Ironic that he attacks the Republicans by accusing them of being in bed with Obama's partners.
But it was cool to vote for the black guy, wasn't it?
The only real question for this deal is how effective the verification will be. If it's effective, then any breach of the deal can be met with a swift response, ranging from reimposing sanctions to military action, and a better chance of having coalition partners than in the absence of a deal. If not, then we may find out one day that they built weapons under our noses and we got Versailled.
Whether the Iranians hate us is beside the point--the question is whether the powers that be in that country have the will to develop and use the weapons, and how best to prevent that.
Brando, we already know enough to know that verification is a farce (the Iranians themselves will provide the samples to be tested). We also know that the Iranians get the lion's share of the benefits of this treaty right out of the gate (unfreezing of assets). Finally, common sense tells us that, once lifted, sanctions will be slow and difficult to reimpose. And you can forget about "coalition partners." That isn't even contemplated.
There is no evidence that Iran is even pursuing a bomb. People on your side continue to casually make this assertion but never seem to provide any evidence for it. If you have some, I'd be more than happy to consider it.
This is n interesting assertion considering that Iran has made no secret of it's hatred for Israel and the United States. Iran has a continuing arms build up out of proportion to other states in the middle east. They are or are claiming to be developing all sorts of sophisticated modern weaponry.
Why in the world would you assume, given their rhetoric and behavior, that they aren't pursuing nuclear weapons?
It is always inadvisable to assume the gun is unloaded.
"Obama got nothing for nothing."
So an intrusive inspection regime that will monitor not only the two mines were Iran is able to obtain uranium but the processing facilities and the centrifuges is nothing? Giving up 70% of its centrifuges is nothing? Giving up 97% of the enriched uranium is nothing? Limiting enrichment to less than 4% is nothing?
Yes, It is nothing.
Why? Because Iran gets to determine where and when the inspections take place. They demanded and got a 24 DAY lead time.
Have you read the analysis of the deal from people like Jeffrey Lewis of Arms Control Wonk blog? If so, how would you counter his positive appraisal of the deal?
Naïve.
If Iran wanted nuclear power so badly why haven't they simply bought the ready made uranium material from a country friendly to them, like Pakistan, or Russia? Why go through the enormous expense of refining you own?
Because if you do it yourself no one will know how much weapon grade plutonium you're making.
Under sanctions Iran had to struggle to acquire materials. Now they have our permission. Now they have the money they need.
Your mistake is in assuming they are a rational actor under the western definition of rational. Iran is a rational actor under the Koranic definition of rational. We have just given permission to a culture that believes in Jhinns to remake the world in the image of Islam.
I'm willing to bet real money that, as we speak, Iran has put its nuclear program into overdrive.
If you are so confident in your opinion, why aren't facts, reason, and logic enough for you? Why do you need to incessantly resort to the most juvenile of personal attacks? Are you that bereft of knowledge on the subject, or are you just clinically insecure?
No..I just hate Commies. They're more evil than the NAZIs were. I also hate people who reflexively defend America's enemies while running down America.
I also hate people who call out "Godwin's law" as if they think it is an argument.
So once again, fuck you.
Are they all prepared to die for their beliefs?
Nope, just like not all Germans were NAZIs. You don't need all, just enough.
@J. Farmer: I specifically conceded that no deal can provide 100% certainty.
And I pointed out that's like saying we may as well leave our front door unlocked and our car keys in the ignition because we can't keep Lupin from stealing paintings from the Louvre (or whatever the hell he does.)
No one is demanding 100% certainty. They're demanding more than a deal where Iran gets to do what it wants without anyone being able to check up on it and getting paid to do it.
You pointed out this deal "increases their breakout time". And I said, yes, if they stick to it, but we are not allowed to check and we will not know when the breakout clock has started.
And in response you offer nothing,
J. Farmar once again taking up cause with Islamic facists.
I curse the worthless whore from between whose legs you slimed your way out of.
Do those US hostages of the regime in Tehran who were awarded millions in damages going to be paid now, or not?
"They’re making common cause with the Republican Caucus."
Obama is such a douchebag.
All things considered, he ought to know that only Americans get to say Death to America. On the other hand, if they want to engage in an international version of playing the dozens...
@Achilles:
"People like J. Farmer are arguing in bad faith."
No, and nothing you quoted contradicts anything I have said. Nothing you quoted is evidence that Iran is working towards a nuclear weapon or will use one once they have it.
"The Iraq that is now a shit hole because Obama abandoned it where women are rounded up and sold as sex slaves, where christians and other religious minorities are dying in the next genocide."
This is just idiotic revisionism parroted by people who want to hold on to idiotic spin like the Iraq War was ever "won." Why did George W Bush negotiate a plan with Maliki that involved a complete troop withdraw? Did he want to abandon Iraq? Why was Petraeus and the troop surge utter failures in Afghanistan? Remember how the surge was supposed to provide the necessary security for Iraq to reconcile its political problems? Those problems never got reconciled, and there is nothing a few thousand troops can do to make the now Shiite-majority Iraq govern itself in a manner inclusive of the sunni minority.
"You take your freedom for granted and take no responsibility for the misery and death your shitty policies create."
This really is laughable. I am a non-interventionist. If it had been up to me, US troops would never have been getting killed trying to nation-build Afghanistan and Iraq. So I think if anybody has to take responsibility for "misery and death" caused by "shitty policies," it is the people who advocate sending US troops to fight stupid, counterproductive wars.
@Rusty:
"Iran has a continuing arms build up out of proportion to other states in the middle east."
You're right it is "out of proportion to other states in the middle east," but in the opposite direction that you seem to think. Iran accounts for about 9% of military expenditure in the region. Saudi Arabia accounts for about 44% of the expenditure. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries outspend Iran on military expenditures by about 10 to 1. They also have massively inferior military capabilities compared to the GCC.
For more information, read "The Arab-U.S. Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf"
http://csis.org/files/publication/150713_Cover_and__Report%20_Gulf_Military_Balance_2015.pdf
"Why? Because Iran gets to determine where and when the inspections take place."
No, they don't. Iran only has two mines that it can obtain uranium ore from, and they will be under constant inspection. There will also be 24/7 monitoring at enrichment facilities, including the use of electronic seals. IAEA inspectors will be living in Iran. The deal agrees to allow up to daily inspections at Natanz. At Arak, the reactor won't even be operational for years. The most controversial part of the inspection regime is the 24-day for undeclared sites. This is not enough time for Iran to hide a cover nuclear processing facility. Even if such a complex facility could be dismantled and hidden away within 24 days, the evidence for the presence of nuclear material would last for thousands of years and is open to detection.
"Have you read the analysis of the deal from people like Jeffrey Lewis of Arms Control Wonk blog? If so, how would you counter his positive appraisal of the deal?
Naïve."
In other words, no, you haven't read it, and you're just talking out of your ass when you declare it "naive."
"I'm willing to bet real money that, as we speak, Iran has put its nuclear program into overdrive."
Great! If you are up for it, I will email you my personal information and we can get in touch. I'd be willing to put $10,000 in escrow as part of a bet with you that we see no nuclear bomb in the next, say, five years.
@Gahrie:
"No..I just hate Commies. They're more evil than the NAZIs were. I also hate people who reflexively defend America's enemies while running down America."
You don't have the first clue about my domestic policies and just look like a fool pretending you do. Nothing I have said defends Iran or runs down America. I think this is a good deal and preferable to the alternatives, and I make that case. I am more than happy to entertain arguments from the other side. But people like you don't have any actual arguments. You just have overwrought hysteria. If you think 1930s Germany is any way comparable to 2015 Iran, it only shows how small and superficial your knowledge of both subjects is.
@Gabriel:
"They're demanding more than a deal where Iran gets to do what it wants without anyone being able to check up on it and getting paid to do it."
They don't. Iran's nuclear program will be under stricter scrutiny than any other country on the planet. They have agreed to limitations that are beyond what they would already by permitted to do under the Non-proliferation Treaty.
"And I said, yes, if they stick to it, but we are not allowed to check and we will not know when the breakout clock has started."
The only two facilities where Iran will be able to do enrichment will be under continuous IAEA monitoring, as well as the only two mines where Iran can obtain uranium ore. The 24-day timeframe required for non declared and/or suspected sites would not be enough time for Iran to hide a nuclear enrichment program.
@President-Mom-Jeans:
When Ami Ayalon, former commander of the Israeli Navy and former head of the Shin Bet, says, "When it comes to Iran’s nuclear capability, this [deal] is the best option,” is he also taking up cause with Islamic facists[sic]?
There is no evidence that Iran is even pursuing a bomb. People on your side continue to casually make this assertion but never seem to provide any evidence for it. If you have some, I'd be more than happy to consider it.
"Why? Because Iran gets to determine where and when the inspections take place."
No, they don't. Iran only has two mines that it can obtain uranium ore from, and they will be under constant inspection. There will also be 24/7 monitoring at enrichment facilities, including the use of electronic seals. IAEA inspectors will be living in Iran. The deal agrees to allow up to daily inspections at Natanz. At Arak, the reactor won't even be operational for years. The most controversial part of the inspection regime is the 24-day for undeclared sites. This is not enough time for Iran to hide a cover nuclear processing facility. Even if such a complex facility could be dismantled and hidden away within 24 days, the evidence for the presence of nuclear material would last for thousands of years and is open to detection.
Who says they won't get uranium ore some place else? How do you know those are their only facilities? Now that they know what and where we are looking they'll do what ever they want somewhere else. Your whole premise is based on the Iranians being honest.
Naive. They'll have enough plutonium to build a bomb in five years.
The fact that Obama is a terrible negotiator has come up many times in the past. Here is yet another example.
The overarching goal of this negotiation is to reduce tensions by giving concessions. If we give the concessions without reducing tensions, it's a straight loss for us. But Obama only *assumes* that tensions will be decreased. He's not even requiring that Iran abandon its official hostile posture as a gesture of good faith.
Requiring that Iran officially and irrevocably abandon "Death to America" as its official policy should have been a prerequisite to sitting at the table. They have to show that they're willing and able to make a symbolic policy change, even though the hardliners oppose it. That's how we know that the doves are in control!
It's the old "I have to talk with my manager" negotiating trick -- "Sure, *I* would love to change the 'Death to America' slogan, but those darn hardliners..." He's giving credit to some Iranian faction for wanting to change the policy, or for saying they want to change the policy, without actually requiring them to change the policy in order to get the credit.
Aparently the head of one of Iran's military groups is in Moscow asking for god knows what. Against the rules of the agreement.
farmer?
@Rusty:
"Your whole premise is based on the Iranians being honest."
No, it isn't. It is based on a quite good inspections regime, and people who actually do arms control for a living have explained in detail why it would be very difficult for the Iranians to cheat under this agreement. You have already called this analysis "naive," even though you did not actually read any of it, so I imagine you will continue burying your head in the sand.
"Aparently the head of one of Iran's military groups is in Moscow asking for god knows what. Against the rules of the agreement."
Quite a command of the facts you've got there. You are talking about Qasem Soleimani, who has been the Quds Force commander since the later 1990s. This actually violates a travel ban that was put in place back in 2007. So what? That has nothing to do with the IAEA's ability to monitor nuclear materials, and I have already said that the deal does not presuppose Iranian honesty. If that were true, there'd be no inspections regime.
You ignored my earlier offer, so let me repeat. I am willing to put $10,000 in escrow as part of a bet with you that there will be no Iranian bomb in the next five years. You said you were "willing to bet real money." Care to put your money where your mouth is?
No, it isn't. It is based on a quite good inspections regime, and people who actually do arms control for a living have explained in detail why it would be very difficult for the Iranians to cheat under this agreement
It certainly worked with India, Pakistan and North Korea didn't it?
@Gahrie:
"It certainly worked with India, Pakistan and North Korea didn't it?"
None of those countries were ever under an inspections regime even remotely close to what the Iranians will be subjected to. Once again your spouting off without having the slightest clue what you're talking about.
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