1. "The Roberts Court's Surprising Move Leftward." A NYT analysis — with charts depicting trends from 1946 to the present — of data from The Supreme Court Database (to which it tries, but fails, to link).
2. "Hillary Clinton is going to lose: She doesn’t even see the frustrated progressive wave that will nominate Bernie Sanders/Clinton's positioning on TPP is way too cute. When it passes with Dems' implicit support, grass roots will explode." An article at Salon.
3. ??? This is a trendwatch, so... more to come! (Maybe....)
June 23, 2015
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Hillary is not going to lose because everything is moving left. She'll lose because her resume is all failure and her campaign abilities are wretched.
Democrats: Please nominate Sanders.
Technically, Hillary won't "lose" because she'll drop out of the race. You can tell she's going through the motions to "pay back" all the bribes she's taken over the last decade. That way she can say "well I tried" to all those that bribed her and the Clinton Foundarion. She'll cite health reasons, couched, of course, her meaningless pablum about "doing it all for the middle class".
Yes, there is a general trend left. Less religion, less marriage, less tradition, no doubt about that.
But Hillary will win the Dem nomination - this Salon guy is cluelessly engaged in wishful thinking and lacks any self-awareness to see it.
The reason Hillary will win the Dem nomination is that no other Dem has the money, cojones, drive or organization to beat her.
If Sanders got an early labor endorsement of, say, AFSCME or SEIU - and the money and manpower that went with it, and then a few green, left-wing billionaires like Tom Steyer to fund him, and then a group of Senators to actively oppose Hillary, and then made some early ad buys to attack Hillary, maybe he'd have something.
As for the General election, though, it's much closer, probably slightly above 50-50 in Hillary's favor. A lot depends on how bad the GOP splintering is, whether the "clown car" meme gets traction, whether a buncha folks stay home and don't vote, etc, etc
Yesterday, I tried to read that Salon article on how Bernie's gonna beat Hillary. It quickly ran into the loon wilderness. The author, Something Curry, writes in personal, emotional, wishful terms, with great certainty. Certainty in expression breeds success, he seems to think. That's a pretty common failing among essayists.
For your "everything's moving left" trendwatch, you could add:
NASCAR races (white guys turning left)
The last few elections haven't moved left.
Not even world wide.
So I'm not sure he's right.
I say this every time, but it is true.
Bernie Sanders is the lib prog's summer fling before their impending arranged marriage with Mrs. Clinton where on that fateful night they will lie back and think of the Democratic Party.
The pendulum swings, and it also corrects itself.
Hillary's question here is can she convincingly embrace the Left so they turn out for her, and can she do so without giving up the middle to the GOP?
Though she does have an ace up her sleeve--the GOP can always find a way to screw things up. If they alienate the middle just enough, Hillary can swing left without fear.
Hillary is not going to lose because everything is moving left. She'll lose because her resume is all failure and her campaign abilities are wretched.
The left doesn't care about failure and corrpution (from their own people, that is). They care about narrative
I'm still not convinced that Hillary will make it all the way through to the election. She has, like, zero popular support. Note the key word ... Popular. Yes, she has all the money, connections, vagina, etc, but at some point it will come down to average people pulling the lever for her.
She was just here in Indy this week for fundraiser sponsored by the Simon Foundation (the Simon companies are based in Indy). No media, no crowds, no mention of the event ... $3700 a plate for a few rich people. That's her support.
The gods of the copybook headings always return. Reality is like that.
I have come to the conclusion that I would rather have Bernie Sanders as president, with a Republican congress to restrain him, than either of the party's Wall Street/Chamber of Commerce offerings.
Also: Stephen Curry, the NBA MVP, shoots deadly with his left. He might be an alien.
"I have come to the conclusion that I would rather have Bernie Sanders as president, with a Republican congress to restrain him, than either of the party's Wall Street/Chamber of Commerce offerings."
I would be at peace with Sanders as president. His politics are far left, but he's honest about them and he doesn't seem to be a crook or dangerously nasty person. With a moderate-right Congress, he isn't going to get anything done without placating the middle.
There's a whole lot of drifting going on....
Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) said: “I’ve been saying for some time now, my friends in the Congressional Black Caucus will tell you, I’ve been saying to them that there’s this rightward drift in the country that I think is going too far. And people get emboldened by all of this.” June 22, 2015
"I would be at peace with Sanders as president."
Hey, I think you just coined Bernie's campaign slogan.
Sanders 2016
"Rest in peace America"
The nice thing about Bernie Sanders is no one is going to unearth a photo of him posing in front of the Confederate Battle Flag.
Latest WSJ/NBC polls finds Clinton with 60 point lead over Sanders. Leads Jeb! by 8pts, Walker by 14pts, Rubio by 10pts. I wish there was a groundswell of support for Bernie besides guys like me, out there but I don't see it yet.
Everything's moving left, except the people of the United States.
@Bay area guy, you need to get out of the Bay Area and meet real humans.
That poll was of "American adults." People not paying attention more than a year before the campaign starts.
I trust Bernie on immigration. He has come out against ethanol. I think it would probably take a person who is a massive asshole not to be co-opted.
I think Bernie Sanders is that asshole.
Bernie Sanders is Barry Goldwater's doppelganger. If he wins the nomination, he will lose the election, and for the same reasons Goldwater did (unless Sanders' Republican opponent doesn't go on the attack.)
"Hey, I think you just coined Bernie's campaign slogan.
Sanders 2016
"Rest in peace America""
Oh we can come up with more!
"Sanders 2016--Ah, Christ, May As Well"
"Sanders 2016--At Least Look At Me When You Screw Me"
"Sanders 2016--It Was a Nice Country We Had, Wasn't It?"
Sanders 2016
Its come to this.
Sanders would rein in military spending and tax the rich. Say Goodbye, America!
Sanders 2016
"At least he's honest about it"
Amazing how those NSA telephone and E-mail intercepts of the recalcitrant justices can nudge decisions.
"I would be at peace with Sanders as president."
Hey, I think you just coined Bernie's campaign slogan.
Sanders 2016
"Rest in peace America"
Like that. Catchy slogan. I think the Iranian mullahs like it too so Obama should be OK with it.
Communist or grifter. Some choice the democrats are offering for this election.
Just read Trump is 2nd place in NH. Can you say Trump-mentum?
Sanders 2016
"Not shameless. Unashamed."
I better stop now. I think I'm talking myself into Bernie Sanders.
I don't think that the country is really moving to the left. Rather, I would suggest that a lot of young adults are still enamored with Obama, and he is pretty far to the left. But, if you get down to specifics, they really aren't that far to the left. Not nearly as locked in as so many of the Vietnam/hippie generation were.
Talking to my kid a couple days ago. They get real defensive when Obama comes up. I think that they know deep down that he is incompetent, and that their generation's vote for him is a big part of why so many of that generation are back living with their parents, working minimum wage jobs, and facing mountains of school debt. But they still love him. He is cool, hip, bi-racial, etc. Hillary! though is a different story - my kid didn't reject my thesis that she is the most corrupt politician to run for President for at least the last halfl century, probably 3/4, if not much more. And they laugh when Hillary! claims to be their income inequality fighter, after giving her daughter a multimillion dollar starter home. And maybe the cincher - her taking quarter million dollar speakers fees, paid for out of student activity fees - esp when my kid knows people who have had to take out student loans to pay the mandatory $1k a semester student fees at their school. Their is no way that Hillary! will get nearly the percentage of the young adult vote that Obama got, and the Dems are banking on. Sanders could potentially do better than she, though, again, not near Obama's level.
I don't see Sanders having much chance at winning the general election either. He is a really old white politician without a vagina. About the only positive thing that can be said about him is that he isn't as corrupt as Hillary! But he is older, and male.
The only thing Democrats care about (not the people who vote democrat regardless, or the misty-eyed young people) is winning the election and stacking the Supreme Court for another eight years.
Perhaps this is just laying groundwork for Sanders to be the VP nominee.
" The author, Something Curry, writes in personal, emotional, wishful terms, with great certainty. "
So you are saying he's a liberal?
Pro-choice doctrine, including selective-child, selective exclusion has a dictatorial following.
Please, please, please lefties. Please nominate Bernie Sanders.
Please, please, please lefties. Please nominate Bernie Sanders.
YES! YES! YES!
Egad, it's 1972 all over again...
"Everything" is not moving left, only the political class, their consorts in the media and their groupies.
As for the Supremes, they are much more conservative than they used to be, even if there's some leftward drift from time to time. A lot depends on the mix of cases that they take in any given term -- because some of the "conservatives" are "liberal" on some issues, and vice-versa.
But you can take this to the bank: If a Republican is elected President next year, it won't be long before the NYT will be hysterical about the radical rightward shift of the Court once the Pres. gets to appoint a successor to one of the "liberals". And if a Democrat is elected, it won't be long before the Court lurches dramatically leftward when the Pres. gets to appoint a successor to one of the "conservatives".
I was just listening to Sununu on the Howie Carr show explaining how Souter basically lied his way onto the Supreme Court. That's part of it.
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