Scott Walker opens up a big lead against Mary Burke in the new Marquette University poll.

Suddenly — after tying in the last poll — it's 50% Walker, 43% Burke.

In the new poll, Walker enjoys a significant lead among independents, who have bounced around more than partisan voters in this race. Among likely voters, Walker leads among independents 52% to 37%.

One other shift in the new poll: Burke's personal ratings have worsened, while Walker's haven't changed much.

Among registered voters, 38% view Burke favorably while 45% view her unfavorably. Among likely voters, 39% view her favorably while 49% view her unfavorably.

"It's the first time we've seen her that far upside down or under water on favorability ratings," said poll director Charles Franklin.

What has changed? Well, there were 2 debates. Burke seemed able to stand with equal weight next to Walker. She tended to attack him and call him not good enough, perhaps without explaining what she could do better, and he tended to speak optimistically about accomplishments. Maybe that made a difference. The other thing that changed is that Burke has identified herself strongly with the Obama administration with 2 big appearances alongside Michelle Obama.

It's post-poll, but worth mentioning here that President Obama himself appeared with her yesterday [CORRECTION: I originally thought the appearance was today.]

The event was at North Division High School, in a ward where Obama outpolled Republican Mitt Romney 843 to 5 in the 2012 presidential election, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The somewhat risky bet that Burke is making is that Obama, polarizing as he is, will help turn out Wisconsin’s urban Democratic base for her next Tuesday....

Burke is one of the very few candidates to welcome Obama, whose unpopularity in the polls has made him somewhat of a pariah amongst vulnerable Democrats in tight races. But Wisconsin’s labor-heavy, populist base hasn’t always loved Burke, a millionaire former executive at her family’s company, Trek Bicycle. Thus the gamble with Obama, whose presence risks putting off independent and suburban voters....

“I think it reflects the fact that she’s the candidate of Washington. We’re not bringing Washington surrogates in,” Walker told reporters after an event Tuesday in Wausau.

And I'm a little skeptical of October surprises — why are we getting this one week before the election? — but I feel compelled to acknowledge this new item in Wisconsin Reporter by M.D. Kittle, "Trek sources: Mary Burke’s family fired her for incompetence."

The [European sales staff] threatened to quit if Burke was not removed from her position as director of European Operations, according to Gary Ellerman, who served as Trek’s human resources director for 12 years. His account was confirmed by three other former employees....

A former employee with the company told Wisconsin Reporter that John Burke, Mary’s brother and current Trek president, had to let his sister go. The former employee, who asked not to be identified for fear of reprisal from the Burke family, said Mary Burke was made to return to Wisconsin and apologize to a group of about 35 Trek executives for her treatment of employees and for the plummeting European bottom line.

Managers in Europe used to call Burke “pit bull on crack” or “Attila the Hun,” one source said.

You know, she could spin that in her favor. Some of us might like a "pit bull on crack" or "Attila the Hun" standing up to the entrenched interest groups here in Wisconsin.

“There is a dark side to Mary that the people at Trek have seen … She can explode on people. She can be the most cruel person you ever met,” said Ellerman, who started a consulting business after he was “asked to leave” Trek in 2004 over a difference in hiring philosophy.

Come on! "She can be the most cruel person you ever met"... that could be a great political slogan.

Anyway, read it yourself and decide what to make of it. I tend to think Walker doesn't need or even want this kind of help. He's avoided attacking Mary, perhaps because he doesn't want to be thought of as the cruelest person, even though many Wisconsinites have wanted to portray him that way. Here's a picture I took during the protests of 2011:



ADDED: Finally, here's the link to the Marquette page. Additional information of interest:

After narrowing to just 2 percentage points in the previous poll, the gender gap in vote choice has returned... Among likely voters, Burke’s lead among women is 49-43 while Walker’s lead among men is 58-36. In the six Marquette Law School Polls since July... Burke has averaged a 52-42 lead among women and Walker a 55-40 advantage among men.

I'd say the Democrats' milking of gender politics hurts them. It might be driving more men to the GOP than pulling women to the Democrats. Republicans seem to avoid gender politics, but it's funny if the Democrats' gender politics helps Republicans. Wouldn't it be weird if both parties decided it wasn't worth doing?

Likely voters who are independents support Walker over Burke by 52 percent to 37 percent. Two weeks ago, among independents.... Burke had a 45-44 edge with likely voters.

Is this suspect? I don't know who the commenter Jennifer Gardner is, but she wrote in the comments on this post:

Walker was always ahead. Marquette U pollster Charles Franklin is a rabid liberal who was the pollster for both the Huffington Post as well as the Daily Kos. He pulled this same crap in the recall polling where he tried to keep Barrett "in the game" for as long as possible before releasing an accurate poll just days before the election so he could ultimately save face and boast how accurate his (final) poll was.

In this instance, he even inferred two weeks ago AFTER releasing a poll showing the race even that the poll probably would change: "Franklin cautioned that the movement among independent voters could change again."

JUST THINK ABOUT THAT: How would he know that after just conducting a poll showing independents dramatically shifting towards Burke? What possible indication would there be at that point that independents would flip back to Walker in just two weeks? By adding that caveat he essentially was admitting that he skewed that poll -- probably to appease all his liberal buddies in the business that wanted to fund raise for Burke on the premise of a "tight race."

Back to the Marquette poll page:

When it comes to being “able to get things done,” ... [a]mong likely voters, 43 percent say Burke can get things done while 43 percent say this does not describe her. The previous poll found 46 percent saying this described her with 39 percent saying it did not.

For Walker, .. [a]mong likely voters in the current poll, 65 percent say Walker can get things done, with 32 percent saying this does not describe him. Two weeks earlier, 67 percent said this described him while 30 percent said it did not.

Isn't that a crazy shift?