Althouse: At the October Café...

২০ অক্টোবর, ২০১৪

At the October Café...

... you can talk about whatever you want.

২৮টি মন্তব্য:

SayAahh বলেছেন...: “At no other time (than autumn) does the earth let itself be inhaled in one smell, the ripe earth; in a smell that is in no way inferior to the smell of the sea, bitter where it borders on taste, and more honeysweet where you feel it touching the first sounds. Containing depth within itself, darkness, something of the grave almost.”
― Rainer Maria Rilke, Letters on Cézanne; ২০/১০/১৪, ৬:২৮ PM
MadisonMan বলেছেন...: The last gasp of nice weather before November rolls around. So looking forward to sunsets at 5:15 when Day Saving Time ends.; ২০/১০/১৪, ৬:৪৭ PM
Meade বলেছেন...: "So looking forward to sunsets at 5:15 when Day Saving Time ends."

Now now. Train yourself to go to bed earlier. Get your requisite 7-8 and rise before sunrise, say, 4 am. 4 am is a magnificent time to be awake and alive in Madison, Wisconsin. You get the bacon and coffee started, take the dog out for a brisk round-the-block, greet the daylight and then your wife with a cheerful smile and warm embrace.

Power up your notebook, check the blogs, ignore email.

You don't fool me for one NY minute, MadMan. Your life is superb.

So is mine.; ২০/১০/১৪, ৭:১৭ PM
Scott বলেছেন...: THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM:

You're on Let's Make A Deal. Monty Hall tells you that there's a NEW CAR behind Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3 -- Choose a door!

So you choose Door #1.

"Let me help you out," says Monty. "I will show you what's behind Door #3." The door opens, and a goat walks out! No car.

"And, I'll tell you what," says Monty. "You've picked Door #1. But I will give you the chance to change your choice. Which door will it be?"

You want the car. What's your best choice?

A. Stay with Door #1.
B. Change your choice to Door #2.
C. It doesn't matter. Both choices give you the same chance.

What's your choice?

(If you've never heard of this problem before, the answer you're probably thinking of is wrong.); ২০/১০/১৪, ৭:২৬ PM
Michael বলেছেন...: Meade

Yes.; ২০/১০/১৪, ৭:৩৫ PM
pm317 বলেছেন...: You hit a jackpot, Meade!; ২০/১০/১৪, ৭:৩৮ PM
Original Mike বলেছেন...: Longer nights equals more stars!; ২০/১০/১৪, ৮:৫০ PM
Original Mike বলেছেন...: Daylight Savings Time is an abomination.; ২০/১০/১৪, ৮:৫৪ PM
Big Mike বলেছেন...: @Scott, a programmer I worked with back in the day couldn't accept the theoretically correct answer so he set up a lengthy Monte Carlo simulation where he randomly assigned the prize to one door (goats to the other two), randomly picked a door to open, then picked a door to eliminate according to the rule that (a) if the door picked in step #2 was a goat, then pick the door that has the other goat, while (b) if the door picked in step #2 was the prize, then randomly pick one of the remaining doors (since both have goats behind them). He then compared the results of keeping the door picked in step #2 versus picking the last door.

What he couldn't get over was that not only the results converge on the theoretical solution, but how rapidly the results converged.; ২০/১০/১৪, ৯:২৬ PM
MadisonMan বলেছেন...: Meade, I'm up with the dog now at 6 -- before sunrise. The problem with a 5:15ish sunset is that I have to find all my bike lights. Where did I put them last Spring? I've no idea.

BTW, Daylight Saving Time should start at 8 AM on Monday. Suddenly it's 7 AM. It should end at 3 PM on a Friday. Suddenly it's 4 PM. If I were King for Day, that would be one of my many mandates.; ২০/১০/১৪, ৯:২৮ PM
Original Mike বলেছেন...: "If I were King for Day, that would be one of my many mandates."

The King doesn't care what the hell time it is.; ২০/১০/১৪, ৯:৪২ PM
Bob R বলেছেন...: I'm with Meade. Early night is not as big a problem as no light in the morning. I have to say that I like waking up in twilight and going through my morning as the sun comes up. So I don't mind the "later" time for DST to end. But I definitely want it to end.; ২০/১০/১৪, ১০:০৩ PM
Bob R বলেছেন...: The Monty Hall problem is interesting since it is one of the few problem that is much easier if you increase the number of (in this case) doors. Think 100 doors. You pick door 49. Monty (knowing the answer) opens up 98 other doors and gives you a choice between door 49 and door 87. OF COURSE you switch. There was no (0=.01) chance you were right the first time.; ২০/১০/১৪, ১০:০৯ PM
Jupiter বলেছেন...: "THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM"

There is a major difficulty with this old annoyance, which is that it is underdefined. You have worked out that you should switch, because you are assuming that Monty is following this rule;

"No matter what door the rube picks, show him a goat, and allow him to switch if he wants."

That rule is certainly consistent with the scenario you describe. But what if Monty is following this rule;

"If the rube picks a car, show him a goat, and ask him if he wants to switch. If he picks a goat, let him have it."

That rule is also perfectly consistent with the scenario you describe, and leads to the conclusion that you should not switch.

There is no way to resolve the matter from the facts given, so the question has no correct answer. In fact, the question of what rules Monty followed, if any, supplied most of the interest of that show.; ২০/১০/১৪, ১০:১৪ PM
Jaq বলেছেন...: Great, these terrorists who will be nice if we just don't mock them strike a half an hour from my house

I think though that the best thing to do is to continue to make dishonest arguments against the West.

Carry on!; ২১/১০/১৪, ৫:৪০ AM
Humperdink বলেছেন...: The Amish never change their clocks. Whenever we agree to do a job or meet somewhere, I inevitably ask: "my time or your time?".; ২১/১০/১৪, ৫:৪৭ AM
Original Mike বলেছেন...: Hey, it's dark this early in the morning!

Going to pull an all nighter tonight with the telescope.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৬:০৯ AM
MadisonMan বলেছেন...: The rising moon sliver before dawn today was an awesome sight, as always.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৭:২৮ AM
Original Mike বলেছেন...: Out, oui.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৭:৩৫ AM
Original Mike বলেছেন...: Damn spell checker.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৭:৩৬ AM
নামহীন বলেছেন...: Early morning is when the young women in their tight exercise pants jog through the quiet neighborhood with reflector tape on their elbows. You can hear their heavy rythmic breathing, huah huah HUAH, and their buttocks gently bounce with their stride. Up with the buttock on the left, up with the buttock on the right, huah huah HUAH and the ponytail goes swish-swish-swish and one day I might follow them in my car, slow, slow, with the headlights off, bounce-bounce-bounce-swish-swish-swish-huah huah HUAH and I will have the stereo on very low playing Night Ranger's "Sister Christian" it will be Our Song,bounce-bounce-bounce-swish-swish-swish-huah huah HUAH.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৭:৪৫ AM
RecChief বলেছেন...: huh, it was announced on the radio this morning that 2.3 million voters in Iowa had returned absentee ballots.

Only problem is that there are about 2.0 million registered voters.

Must be a typo in their copy; ২১/১০/১৪, ৮:৪১ AM
RecChief বলেছেন...: hmm, what to make of this?; ২১/১০/১৪, ৮:৫৫ AM
Scott বলেছেন...: Monty himself said that he would have never offered to let the contestant switch doors. Instead, he would have offered $100.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৮:৫৬ AM
MadisonMan বলেছেন...: hmm, what to make of this?

Petty tyrants are the worst kind.

The Dowager said it best: It always happens when you give these little people power, it goes to their heads like strong drink.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৯:৪০ AM
নামহীন বলেছেন...: I know I shouldn't be fueling Althouse's triumphalism on gay marriage any further, but this ad for the Republican Congressional candidate here in MA6 is the first of its kind I've seen-- during an NFL game, no less.; ২১/১০/১৪, ৯:৫৩ AM
bleh বলেছেন...: Althouse, if you haven't blogged about this NYT article, you might consider doing so. It's another example of female triumphalism being socially acceptable and worth celebrating in the pages of the paper of record.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/opinion/sunday/are-women-better-decision-makers.html?_r=0; ২১/১০/১৪, ১০:২২ AM
Michael K বলেছেন...: It's nice to know that Milwaukee's Democrats are protecting the voters from violent 78 year olds.

Wisconsin is a trip.; ২১/১০/১৪, ১০:৫৩ AM