New Rasmussen poll.
If Romney wins Wisconsin and New Hampshire, he'll win the Electoral College even without Ohio. Right?
२६ ऑक्टोबर, २०१२
याची सदस्यत्व घ्या:
टिप्पणी पोस्ट करा (Atom)
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१६७ टिप्पण्या:
If all other states go as Rasmussen currently has them, yes. If they go as RCP has them, I don't think so.
Ten days before Governor Scott won his recall election, polls showed him tied with Mayor Tom Barrett. Walker won the election by seven points.
Expect the same for Romney in Wisconsin.
Assuming he also wins Virginia, Florida, Colorado, and North Carolina, then yes.
"Ten days before Governor Scott won his recall election, polls showed him tied with Mayor Tom Barrett. Walker won the election by seven points.
Expect the same for Romney in Wisconsin."
I was gonna ask some of you Wisconsinite. How does it look up there talk-wise/sign-wise/rumor-wise as to Romney's chances of taking the state?
Assuming he also wins Virginia, Florida, Colorado, and North Carolina, then yes.
I thought the momentum was gone.
TWM said...
"I was gonna ask some of you Wisconsinite. How does it look up there talk-wise/sign-wise/rumor-wise as to Romney's chances of taking the state?"
Not a lot of enthusiasm apparent for Owebama. Some of that may because he fucked over the Democrats during the recall. I have a lot of centrist Democrat friends who not only will vote for Romney, but have given money to his campaign. Lots of enthusiams, and a great ground game to get the vote out...Romney took over all of Walker's "Victory Centers" and their well staffed. WI will go to Romney.
The momentum is gone, but the Mittmentum remains.
It looks more and more like WI will be the state that determines the presidency
Biden is coming to Oshkosh? LOLOL
Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.
I'm holding each and every one of you Cheeseheads responsible for the outcome.
i live in a very blue suburb of very liberal San Francisco. At my son's middle school they did a presidential vote in the history classes - exactly 3 votes for Obama. The rest, over 80 votes, for Romney. I can guarantee you 4 years ago McCain got only a handful of votes.
And they made the kids watch the inauguration at an assembly. The vice principal was crying.
He's gonna be crying again, I think, but not tears of joy.
It is almost beginning to look like somebody sold her soul down at the crossroads for web traffic, the way events have lately found a way to focus on her state....
Just sayin....
Regarding what Julie said, I think there will be a lot of surprises election night.
This Administration is coming apart at the seams.
And at just the right time.
"Obama 49%, Romney 49%"
Obama was down by 1 in the Rasmussen poll on August 15.
Fox Valley area of the state here. Not a ton of yard signs for either, but by my observation there are more for Mitt. I remember being very nervous about Walkers recall based on the polls, but then he won easily. I expect to see the same here next week - Mitt wins by a bigger margin than the polls are indicating.
Middle-schoolers are very conservative. My Walnut Creek, CA one went decisively for Nixon in '72.
Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election.
That seems like a ridiculously high turnout number, but maybe it's just that the average is pulled way up by Madison.
Anecdote from eastern Iowa. More Obama signs than Romney signs.
However, all signs are at maybe 1/3rd of what they were in 2008, for both parties.
PS. I was 50 ft from the presidential motorcade on Wednesday as the president was leaving after his campaign stop, stuck at a stop light as traffic was held up.
Always neat to see, no matter your politics.
Although Wisconsin rock breaks Ohio scissors, Florida paper covers Wisconsin rock.
Ready,set, go.
Here is how to read the polls in Wisconsin based on the recall. Walker was never down in the polls to Barrett the last month.
The two primary pollsters for the recall were PPP and Marquette. At the end, the MU poll had it Walker 50, Barrett 45. The final PPP poll had it at Walker 50, Barrett 47. But the last PPP poll refused to include the 3rd party candidate Trivedi, hoping that voters who didn't like Walker would default to having Barrett as the only choice.
Rassmussen did a final poll in WIsconsin on May 11th (for a June 5th election) that showed Walker 50, Barrett 45.
The actual final result was Walker 53%, Barrett 46%.
What I take from this is that if the silent majority shows up again at the Wisconsin polls, Romney and Thompson likely each will get about 2-3 points higher than the final polls show.
My Walnut Creek, CA one went decisively for Nixon in '72
Didn't the rest of the country do that, too?
Obama was down by 1 in the Rasmussen poll on August 15.
And election day was August 22!
Even if Ohio goes for Romney (which I think it will), it could be much closer than WI, so WI (or CO) could be the state called for Romney on election night that puts him over the top.
Julie, wow, I guess that means the word Romney passed from their parents' lips at some point favorably?
If Romney wins Wisconsin he will also win OH, MI, VA, NC, FL and NV. It will be a total blow out and probably bring a Republican Senate majority with it.
That said, I doubt if Romney will win WI.
My third grade class handedly gave the election to Dole.
No way Mitt wins NV - Reid won't allow it.
Ten days before Governor Scott won his recall election, polls showed him tied with Mayor Tom Barrett
False
The momentum is gone, but the Mittmentum remains.
Here is the polling trend in Wisconsin.
Romney by seven. 310 or so electoral college votes.
What Curious George said. The WIREP ground game is remarkable. Millions of phone calls, lit drops, door knocks. Essentially the same team that worked the Walker campaign, but with more money and resources.
Huge rellies scheduled around he state this weekend, and Mitt/Paul will have a big rally on the grounds of the Wisconsin State Fair Monday.
Super genius garage mahal rebuts a statement about polls 10 days before a June 5 election by citing a poll from April 13-15, which even preceded the Democrat primary.
And that's his A game.
Broomhandle said...
Middle-schoolers are very conservative. My Walnut Creek, CA one went decisively for Nixon in '72.
Damn you east bayers? I love the east bay. :D
Garage, that graphic leaves me wanting more. I'd prefer if the individual polls were all the same color, so you could see trends in the individual polls (Rasmussen, for example) or Gallup. I can almost assume that biases in each of those individual polls are minimal from one poll to the next, but comparing a spread of polling results as is done in your link hides too much information.
(Yes, I know you don't produce the graphic :) )
And they made the kids watch the inauguration at an assembly. The vice principal was crying.
They made the kids at my son's elementary school march in a fucking parade. Not because he's a Democrat, they said, but because he's the first African American President. Such bullshit.
I'm quite confident that when Mitt Romney wins, there will be no parade. "We had some complaints last time, it wasn't really, but it appeared like we were taking political sides" they will say.
Such bullshit.
when Mitt Romney wins, there will be no parade.
But, but...he'll be our first Mormon president! Another victory over intolerance!
I wonder if there would've been a parade if Colin Powell had run and won as a Republican.
Gararge Mahal disappeared from the Althouse blog sevral days before the thumping he tooking in the Wisconsin recall. He eventually showed up again. If garage's behavior is a bellweather in the coming election, expect him to disappear again.
Super genius garage mahal rebuts a statement about polls 10 days before a June 5 election by citing a poll from April 13-15, which even preceded the Democrat primary.
Well, I do know how to read a webpage.
Scroll down, past the first few paragraphs. You'll see a poll tracker with poll data up to June 3rd. You can even move your mouse over the dates 10 days before the June 5th election and everything. Let me know if you need anymore help.
But I expect him to hang around to gloat over his predicted 3 point victory of Tammy Baldwin.
Garage is correct. As I posted above, the Walker recall election polls did NOT show the race tied the week before.
Heck, I just heard a GOP guy on the radio today repeat the falsehood that the polls were tied the day before. They weren't. Even Toyko Rose Nate Silver had Walker as a 95% chance to win in the last two weeks.
The only takeaway from the recall polling which I noted above is that the polls seemed to undercount about 3% of the GOP vote here.
So if Romney is within 3 points in any poll this next week, he's got a good shot. If he's tied in the polls as with Rass, it means he could likely win here.
The reasonable scenario right now has Romney winning Colorado, Virginia and Florida. So put those out of the discussion.
Then it comes down to either taking Ohio outright and winning presidency or losing Ohio but taking Wisconsin and either Iowa, NH or Nevada.
He only has to get Wisconsin and ONE of those other three states. And he can then win the Presidency while losing Ohio.
This is why the game is moving here. Romney wants a second path and Obama wants to deny him a second path.
@Haz
Wasn't trying to stomp on you for personal gain. I remember watching this stuff pretty closely at the time. It just wasn't very close.
garage, from now on I'll just focus on the colorful graphs at your links, realizing that you don't think the multiple paragraphs of text preceding them are relevant to your point.
Good to know that you're not a text-oriented "reader". It answers a lot of questions.
"This is why the game is moving here. Romney wants a second path and Obama wants to deny him a second path."
Going out on a small limb here but I don't think Romney needs a second path and that he will have both path's covered. This Benghazi stuff is really hitting the fan today.
We're in Dane County, a few blocks from the Madison city limits. I've seen one Obama sign (alongside a Baldwin sign), and no Romney signs. Nobody seems to give a damn about anybody this election. Even the guy down the street who had the McCain sign last time doesn't have a Romney one up. The Obama fans from last time down the other side of the street have signs up for the local candidates but nothing for Baldwin or Obama. On the whole there are a ton of signs for local candidates but almost none for the national offices. I don't what that means, if anything.
Hey, garage! We're missing you over in the Benghazi thread.
Speaking of that "momentum", Romney's back to +5 in Gallup LV (51 - 46), and Obama's approval rating is cratering among ADULTS (approval -5, disapproval +5, in the last two days).
Ann, how accurate where the polls during the recall election? I can't remember if they skewed one way or the other.
the polls moved Walker's way before the election, the same time The Garage Mahal Show went on hiatus. besides , he was probably busy doing GOTV democrat propaganda stuff from his government job.
I don't what that means, if anything.
I've noticed the same thing. There's just one car on my block with an Obama sticker and one with a Romney sticker. The Romney car got keyed within a couple of days of the sticker's appearance.
My guess is that Romney supporters are keeping their heads down, and Obama supporters lack enthusiasm.
That might be a partisan slant, of course.
The reasonable scenario right now has Romney winning Colorado, Virginia and Florida. So put those out of the discussion.
Those states are "out of the discussion" only in the sense that Obama doesn't need them. Not in the sense that Romney has a comfortable lead, by any means. According to RCP, Colorado and and Virginia are two out of the three closest states right now (NH being the other). All are closer than Wisconsin or Ohio, or Iowa, or Nevada -- as is Florida. And for some reason, RCP ignores PPP's VA poll of yesterday that had Obama up by 5, even though it generally includes PPP polls in its averages.
Here's Biden in Wisconsin talking about Romney's $500 Trillion tax cuts for the wealthy:
Biden: A $500 TRILLION TAX CUT!!!!!!
Is Karl Rove running Obama's election strategy? Check Drudge to see the latest pathetic ad. They put Romney in a dunce hat.
garage, from now on I'll just focus on the colorful graphs at your links, realizing that you don't think the multiple paragraphs of text preceding them are relevant to your point.
You seem to be the only that had a hard time with it. I'll try to make it child-proof next time for you.
You seem to be the only that had a hard time with it
I'm the only one that bothers to check your links.
Ann, how accurate where the polls during the recall election? I can't remember if they skewed one way or the other.
If this is a duplication of something already posted above, my apologies:
RCP Wisconsin Governor Recall Election - Walker vs. Barrett
"Here's Biden in Wisconsin talking about Romney's $500 Trillion tax cuts for the wealthy:
Biden: A $500 TRILLION TAX CUT!!!!!!"
I'm sure garage buys that ...
Hey, garage! We're missing you over in the Benghazi thread.
yea I'm sure there is some real factual arguments going on.
"I'm the only one that bothers to check your links."
Been there. Done that.
Polls trending away from Romney in IA and NH. WI and NV remain long-shots. That makes OH crucial, and Romney seems stuck about 2% behind Obama. Intrade also trending away from Romney in the last day or so. Those who say that Romney's momentum has slowed or stopped appear to be correct. He probably needed to win one of the final two debates to put him over the top and that didn't happen.
-- A (realist) Romney supporter
"-- A (realist) Romney supporter"
Yeah, whatever the hell that means . . .
You seem to be the only that had a hard time with it. I'll try to make it child-proof next time for you.
For the record, I noticed it as well, but Chip pointed it out so I didn't need to call it out.
I drive from 60 miles east of Cincinnati, to Cincinnati and back every day for work. It is one of the more conservative areas, but you have to search to find an Obama yard sign. Romney signs probably out number Obama signs 5 to 1.
GALLUP R 51% O 46%
LANDSLIDE
Garage on a serious note....what do you think about what the father of the Navy Seal had to say.
When he said this:
Woods continues: “Apparently even the State Department had a live stream and was aware of their calls for help. My son wasn’t even there. He was at a safe house about a mile away. He got the distress call; he heard them crying for help; that’s why he and Glen risked their lives to go that extra mile just to take care of the situation. And I’m sure that wasn’t the only one received that distress call—you know, come save our lives … I’m sure that other people in the military, in the State Department, in the White House, received that same call that he would receive. And I’m sure that most military people would jump at the chance … to protect that life [and] not leave anyone behind.”
I consider you at bottom a good man and a "Real" American. What do you have to say about this?
Please don't run away.
Ohio is in the bag for Romney. The polls are weighted heavily toward a overwhelming democratic turnout. There will be an overwhelming republican and independent turnout. Romney wins. America wins.
"LANDSLIDE"
Popular for sure. Electoral votes are still a worry.
Garage, why do you link to a Huff/TPM poll tracker? Why not RCP?
I checked, and RCP had Walker leading Barrett by 5 points on May 28, whereas that (pretty crude) chart at TPM only had him up 4. RCP also had the source data for each poll.
I clicked through to the source data on the final PPP poll from June 3 and found this in the summary:
This is a close race, closer than it was a couple weeks ago. Scott Walker's still the favorite but Barrett's prospects for an upset look better than they have in a long time.
“What’s going to determine Tuesday’s outcome is pretty simple,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Democrats turn out in the same numbers that they did in 2008 Tom Barrett will win a surprise victory. And if they don’t Scott Walker will survive.”
Reverse the parties, replacing Walker with Obama, Barrett with Romney, and 2008 with 2010, and it sounds about right, no?
"-- A (realist) Romney supporter"
Yeah, whatever the hell that means . . .
It means he's "concerned."
I don't understand how WI can be close, after the last two years there.
Looks like the desperation on the left is for real though, if you check the Cap Times. A gay Lee worker claims to have been severely beaten and called a traitor and faggot.
BENGHAZI-gate Fox News Video...
http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
Popular for sure. Electoral votes are still a worry.
They can only win by stealing it. R has to win by more than the margin of fraud. Ohio needs to be as big as it was in 2004 (so Kerry HAD to concede the next morning).
Have no fear. R by at least 330 Electoral Votes. Over the next 48 hours the Libya news is devastating to the President - he is personally responsible. Impeachable offenses.
Over the next 48 hours the Libya news is devastating to the President - he is personally responsible. Impeachable offenses.
As much as I would like this to be true, I don't think it is. Where is this being reported other than in right-wing circles? Check your Facebook feed-is anyone sharing links? I thought about it, but since the only source is Glenn Beck, I will get mocked endlessly and mercilessly. It will have no effect until it's being reported by the MSM. Don't hold your breath on that one.
He will not be impeached.
But all decent Americans should turn away from him if what has been alleged is true.
If he ordered that the military not try to save the Ambassador so as to not "Insult or upset the Libyans".....well how could he survive that politically?
Reverse the parties, replacing Walker with Obama, Barrett with Romney, and 2008 with 2010, and it sounds about right, no?
I don't think so for a variety of reasons. Different dynamic completely. I used the TPM tracker because I never visit RCP, for no particular reason.
"They can only win by stealing it. R has to win by more than the margin of fraud. Ohio needs to be as big as it was in 2004 (so Kerry HAD to concede the next morning).
Have no fear. R by at least 330 Electoral Votes. Over the next 48 hours the Libya news is devastating to the President - he is personally responsible. Impeachable offenses."
Here's praying you're right. And I do mean praying . . .
@Baron Zemo, you may have to wait for a reply until HuffPo has figured out a way to spin this. As of now, not one single story about it on their homepage.
But maybe it's in a graph at the bottom of the page and I missed it.
There's a huge push down here in the Racine/Kenosha area for early voting. I voted on Monday at the Racine City Hall and lets just say the majority of the people in the line looked like they were Obamaphone users. I wanted to check to see if they were bussed to the City Hall but I didn't have the time.
Joe Biden is here in Kenosha this afternoon...hopefully he tells another whopper like the $500 trillion tax cut to 120,000 families (that approx. $42 million per family).
I firmly believe that Romney will win Wisconsin.
I think it's safe to say that every single poll conducted so far was before Meat Loaf endorsed Romney. It's all over but the cryin'.
I'm dyin' at the bottom of a pit in the blazing sun
It will have no effect until it's being reported by the MSM. Don't hold your breath on that one.
Over the next 48 hours .....
Another fresh poll to add to the mix:
WI President '12: Obama (D) 48.0% Romney (R) 43.0% (Oct. 25 - Grove Insight (D)
garage mahal said:
I used the TPM tracker because I never visit RCP, for no particular reason.
"Preserving epistemic closure" is a particular reason. Why deny it?
"yea I'm sure there is some real factual arguments going on."
I don't think they're going to be able to sweep this one under the rug.
"Another fresh poll to add to the mix:
WI President '12: Obama (D) 48.0% Romney (R) 43.0% (Oct. 25 - Grove Insight (D)"
Same group gives Obama +3 in Florida which isn't even close.
It leans Democrat in the sample but I am sure you knew that, garage
BTW, it's a DU sponsored poll.
Well, I have my ear pressed to the railroad track down here in S. FL. Divining the subtle vibrations I'd say you can put Florida in the lead pipe cinch category. It's all over but the cryin' for BHO.
He will not be impeached.
No, he won't be impeached.
He will be offered an opportunity to utilize hiw remarkable skills and intelligence in some other fashion.
He will sit out his Executive Pause time in Hawaii while he seeks his own true calling, having humbly offered his years of service to his country.
IOW, he knows what powerful people have on him. They can't outright win the election after Benghazi. They can still steal the election but I'm betting they won't.
Don't get cocky.
BTW, it's a DU sponsored poll.
Mopiate for the asses.
You have a chance to redeem yourself here as a reasonable man garage.
Any response would suffice.
Even excuses for Barry and Joe. At least address the issue.
If you ignore it you do yourself a disservice.
Or else you can ignore it. As most of the real libs have done today. They are notable by their utter disappearance.
Strange how that happens?
BTW, it's a DU sponsored poll.
Like I said, add it with the Rasmussens of the world and you have yourself an average.
The 2004 Bush re-election was a mass support for a President in a War on terror and in Iraq. He won Ohio.
The latest revelations from the Benghazi betrayal of Navy Seals lives by the slick liars of fast and furious fame who lurk in our White House will lose Ohio for President Obama big time.
He is just not an American. It's all over for him.
"Like I said, add it with the Rasmussens of the world and you have yourself an average."
Only in a fantasy world. But I do imagine it makes you feel a little better.
(crickets)
Many of these state polls are a crock. Their smaller sample size (than national polls) introduces more variance, and most of them have D/R splits HIGHER than 2008 for the Dems. No way in hell is that happening in any swing state, given what's happened the last 4 years, as 2010 gave us a glimpse of.
Add Benghazi coming absolutely unglued to that, and it may not be all that close by Nov 6.
OT - But this hurricane looks like it is going to be really bad. Here in Philadelphia, we just got an email to unplug everything in our offices and make sure the doors are closed when we leave for the weekend.
No, really, it makes perfect sense to treat Rasmussen and Grove Insight polling equally. After all, in terms of accuracy, Rasmussen and Grove are pretty similar.
That is, if you consider "among the most accurate" (1st among 15 major polls and 9th among 263 polls) and "144th most accurate (among 263)" to be pretty similar rankings.
"OT - But this hurricane looks like it is going to be really bad. Here in Philadelphia, we just got an email to unplug everything in our offices and make sure the doors are closed when we leave for the weekend."
Actually, that's very on-topic since the MSM will focus on that for two weeks instead of Benghazi.
garage mahal said...
" Like I said, add it with the Rasmussens of the world and you have yourself an average."
Serious question to which I don't know the answer:
Has there been an election where Rasmussen's polls showed substantially more support for the Republican candidate than the actual result?
Again, it seems more likely that with the recent recall elections and the big support for Walker that Romney could carry Wisconsin. Especially since Bush came so close in 2004. Now with the extra organization, Wisconsin could easily go Bush.
Also a lot of the Wisconsin polls are relying on 2008 partisan turn out and not 2004 or 2010 turnout.
It is one of the more conservative areas, but you have to search to find an Obama yard sign. Romney signs probably out number Obama signs 5 to 1.
I live in a similar area (MKE metro, conservative, red counties)- Ratio of McCain/Obama signs about the same - 5 to 1. Oops, that was 2008.
t-man, it could be the worst storm you've ever experienced. So it will certainly warrant news coverage.
One thing: Get cash. You will possibly have no power for a week. Plan ahead. Be proactive.
"it could be the worst storm you've ever experienced."
If it's not, Italian prosecutors will be knocking on your door.
I would suggest that polling data, at least at this point in time, is used by political parties to stimulate turn out--It is not used to describe he outcome. We will know for sure in the wee small hours of november 7
Has there been an election where Rasmussen's polls showed substantially more support for the Republican candidate than the actual result?
"The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight's database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued." Link
Good advice regarding the "Frankenstorm," MadMan. Governor Christie recently tweeted the URL for the Red Cross Hurricane Preparedness web site. Might be a good idea for others on the East Coast to check it out.
Latest prediction is that Sandy will come ashore over top of Atlantic City. Could that be a meterological critique of the HBO series?
Just heard a Crosspoint GPS radio ad here in Bangor, ME. Romney is going for the 2nd CD electoral vote. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that the votes can split. One vote, but it is now in play.
@garage
On good authority. WH issued an All Call this morning, including Ruemmler.
You don't suppose they might be discussing how to protect the President RE: Benghazi, now do you?
Who do you think will be inspecting the underside of the bus this weekend?
LANDSLIDE
@David McMillan, Wisconsin will be determinative only in the sense that the landslide will be so obvious that around the time Wisconsin is called by the TV talking heads is when I predict Obama will concede.
I look for Romney to win about 315 electoral votes, give or take a couple.
"it could be the worst storm you've ever experienced."
Hey, out here in L.A., it's gonna be about 80, with sunny skies all week. Come on out, you hillbillies.
LANDSLIDE
You have your work cut out for you buddy.
BREAKING: CNN Ohio poll: Obama 50, Romney 46
garage mahal: "Like I said, add it with the Rasmussens of the world and you have yourself an average."
LOL
Beyond parody.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued."
The Rasmussen models dont use a little known Franken Car Trunk variable... fast becoming indispensible in Political polling Standards.
His models also fail to account for the dead vote.
Garage, you sure have a high tolerance for disappointment. It's almost like you pump yourself up just so it will hurt more. Enjoy.
bagoh20, I think we all find it unpleasant to think about our side losing this election, so we cling to the polls and stories about polls that we like.
And why not? There'll be plenty of time for wailing and gnashing of teeth once the actual results are known.
I wish that overall there was a lot less reporting about polls and more about the issues, but then how could the MSM keep the Obama bubble aloft?
", I think we all find it unpleasant to think about our side losing this election"
True, but that must brutal on third party voters.
bagoh
I was in your shoes not too long ago. Didn't believe the polls. Thinking that the latest revelation (BENGHAZI!) would sink the incumbent. It never came to pass.
I'll stick to data and trends. If they're wrong they're wrong. But I don't see where and how Romney pulls this one off.
"I'll stick to data and trends."
Don't forget ballots in car trunks.
it's gonna be about 80, with sunny skies all week.
I was in Phoenix once, in January, and it was like that and after day 4, I was like "Okay, enough already, I'm ready for a change".
When weather doesn't change I get grumpy.
OK, here's a trend, via
HuffPo's tracking model (to pick a source garage may trust):
Since Oct. 4, Obama's held steady at just below 47%. In that same interval, Romney's risen steadily from 46% to 47.5%.
Obviously, this can still go either way, but the trend you're looking at is slightly in Romney's favor.
It is great to stick to data and trends when your guy let Americans die when he could have saved them.
I guess that doesn't matter.
Sad.
But predictable.
"(BENGHAZI!)"
Despicable.
My feeling is ALL the 'tossup' and leaning Romney states will go to Romney.
Yes it will be a landslide victory.
Hope for change in 2012 before another embassy is invaded and another trillion in debt added!!
Madison Man: When weather doesn't change I get grumpy.
You'd like the Colorado Front Range. More weather change there per week than Wisconsin.
We need to go back to the James Carville rule that Newt cited again last night on Greta.
Carville said in the past that the incumbent usually ends up with his last poll number.
So if Obama is topping out at 47 or 48%, that is what he'll be getting on election day.
This thing will be close, but the trends favor Romney. If Romney and Obama's roles were reversed, we'd have non-stop mainstream media experts say they've never seen a President win re-election with his national poll numbers in the 45-48 range this close to the election.
Of course if the rolls were reversed, that story would be reported after the 15 minutes they would spend on Romney personally watching Ambassador Stevens die via drone camera while telling his SOS to deny help for fear of a "Desert One" mess like Carter had in 1979. We'd have "BREAKING - MORE ON LIBYA-GATE" running on the screen crawl 24/7.
@ Julie C " i live in a very blue suburb of very liberal San Francisco. At my son's middle school they did a presidential vote in the history classes - exactly 3 votes for Obama. The rest, over 80 votes, for Romney. I can guarantee you 4 years ago McCain got only a handful of votes."
At my son's HS, in southwestern CT, Romney and all the down ballot Republicans won the election. They picked the winners in 2004, 2008, and 2012. I take it as an omen.
@garage
"The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
American Research Group also released a live operator, non-partisan poll of likely voters in Ohio on Friday. It was also conducted entirely after the final debate. It indicates Obama with a 49%-47% edge over Romney, which is within the survey's sampling error.
I want to know the split between D/R/I in the total and the 741 LV in ORG and in ARG overall.
Keep your chin up.
@ Dante " Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters." I am not a statistician, but how does that math work? If 96% of sure voters are 51-47 Romney, how then is the state tied?
Keep your chin up
My chin? You just cited a poll with your candidate losing!
My anecdote about my kid's class was not to suggest that California is in play or anything - obviously California will not come to its senses until we've completely bankrupted ourselves into oblivion, and even then I'm not so sure.
But, I take that 8th grade vote as a sign that there is very little enthusiasm for Obama even in these blue parts. It would not surprise me to find some of my liberal friends taking advantage of the secret ballot to actually vote for Romney and just not tell anyone.
The few current Obama bumper stickers I see are on either the cars of college students (I live in a college town) or those 60 year old gray haired NOW and Planned Parenthood adherents, largely female.
>>>
"Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters."
I am not a statistician, but how does that math work? If 96% of sure voters are 51-47 Romney, how then is the state tied?
<<<
Essentially all of Romney's voters are "sure to vote", not all of Obama's are.
Ctmom4:
First, these are Scott Rasmussen's numbers, not my own. You can click through to see the link.
Second, .96 *.51 is indeed 49%, which Romney apparently has. Obama's numbers are then 45% of certain to vote voters. This means that Obama has to pick up nearly all 4% of those voters who are not certainly going to vote.
Because these are whole numbers Rasmussen is using, there is up to about a 1% slop in the numbers for the above math. So it could be Obama has 3.51% of those uncertain to vote, but 45.49% of those certain to vote.
The only reason I pointed this out is because I'm a snarky bastard who was offended when our otherwise esteemed and wise hostess Ann made great claims about the power of being in the Middle in deciding the election, and how the middle was going to decide the vote.
I've read that it's all about getting out the vote. Getting out the vote is exactly how WI could go, as there are few undecideds (2%), so with big D turnout, the Obamao wins, with big R turnout, Romney wins.
Here in CA, there will be a similar effect. R's numbers I suspect will be higher than they would normally be because people are intent on stopping loopy Jerry Brown from sucking away more money from workers. That will cause conservatives to go to the polls, and more R votes. Meanwhile, though, the crazy Jerry Brown propositions on the Ballot are similarly at an advantage, as Ann has shown, everyone wants to be a winner, and so D's may turn out to the polls to give their Obamao vote. Or, who knows. If it looks like a Romney win, maybe D's will stay home, and the propositions will go down the toilet.
You want a trend? 3 weeks ago not a single poll of the 10 used in the RCP average showed Romney with a lead. Today he leads in 6 plus one tie. Of 6 most recent polls just this week, Obama leads in none. The trend is clear, and there is little in the news that could change it except to make it worse for Obama. The One needs to start a war, and quick.
All the latest polls suggest doom for Obama with independents.
This morning’s Washington Post poll has him down 20 with independents, 58-38. The Rasmussen national tracker has him down 17 today. Today’s IBD/TIPP poll has him down 10, 48-38. SurveyUSA/Monmouth has him trailing by 19, 52-33. The outlier, SEIU/DailyKos pollster PPP, had Romney up 2 yesterday with independents, 47-45, after the PPP tracker showed him up 10, 51-41, three days earlier. In this morning’s swing state poll, Rasmussen shows Romney leading Obama by 11 with independents.
In Ohio, ARG has Obama down 20 with independents, 57-37, SurveyUSA has him down 8, 47-39; TIME has him down 15, 53-38; PPP has him down 7, 49-42; CBS/Quinnipiac has him down 7, 49-42; Gravis has him down 19, 52-33.
Obama has lost independents.
With no sign that he’s winning the crossover battle, partisan turnout is therefore his only remaining hope. But most polls show an "enthusiasm gap" for him, as well.
It'll take some kind of miracle to change these dynamics in the next 10 days, or he's toast.
Lena Denham Parody video
From the comments: it's really weird that Stephen Crowder is hotter than Lena Denham.
Love it.
On Wisconsin! Everywhere but Camp Randall Stadium tomorrow!
Nov. 6th.
We have NC under control down here. You guys take care of Wisconsin for us and bring it home.
You want a trend? 3 weeks ago not a single poll of the 10 used in the RCP average showed Romney with a lead. Today he leads in 6 plus one tie.
Scroll down the page and you will see all the prior polls.
RCP - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Here's RCP for 2008 - at the end average was Obama +7.6%, Final Vote was Obama +7.4%
General Election: McCain vs. Obama
"My chin? You just cited a poll with your candidate losing!"
Garage Mahal is absolutely committed to being the last vote for Obama.
All of America may come to realize Obama is a failure, that Obama lets American personnel die on foreign soil while he jets off to Vegas for a fundraiser, that Obama is good for an easy $1 trillion per year in deficit spending, that Obama is good for a permanent unemployment rate of 8%+; that Obama is good for endlessly failing foreign policies.
Garage Mahal is the Nina Burleigh off the Althouse comment board. If Garage Mahal ever meets Barack Obama, I hope he wears a bib and knee pads and brings mouthwash.
@ Conserve Liberty
On good authority. WH issued an All Call this morning, including Ruemmler.
You don't suppose they might be discussing how to protect the President RE: Benghazi, now do you?
Who do you think will be inspecting the underside of the bus this weekend?
According this item, Obama:
Petraeus Throws Obama Under the Bus
If Garage Mahal ever meets Barack Obama, I hope he wears a bib and knee pads and brings mouthwash.
You guys have a real problem making a joke without about blow jobs. I can only imagine the intelligence level of winger fever swamp blogs you inhabit that think that is remotely funny.
If Garage Mahal ever meets Barack Obama, I hope he wears a bib and knee pads and brings mouthwash.
You guys have a real problem making a joke without making it about blow jobs. I can only imagine the intelligence level of winger fever swamp blogs you inhabit that think that is remotely funny.
"You guys have a real problem making a joke without about blow jobs. I can only imagine the intelligence level of winger fever swamp blogs you inhabit that think that is remotely funny."
That's odd.
Why do you think I'm joking?
That's odd
Not, it's not odd. It's a pattern. Is there something you'd like to tell us?
I don't know about the rest of you, but I enjoy this new spam about Iraqi chat rooms.
It's very soothing in the midst of a typical Althouse slugfest; like the sherbet course at a fancy restaurant.
Tim said...
"My chin? You just cited a poll with your candidate losing!"
Garage Mahal is absolutely committed to being the last vote for Obama.
All of America may come to realize Obama is a failure, that Obama lets American personnel die on foreign soil while he jets off to Vegas for a fundraiser, that Obama is good for an easy $1 trillion per year in deficit spending, that Obama is good for a permanent unemployment rate of 8%+; that Obama is good for endlessly failing foreign policies.
Garage Mahal is the Nina Burleigh off the Althouse comment board. If Garage Mahal ever meets Barack Obama, I hope he wears a bib and knee pads and brings mouthwash.
What he is committed to is a failed, evil, moral philosophy that has been repeatedly repudiated by history.
sad, really.
Tim
And no, I wasn't putting two and two together because of the city of your favorite football team.
"Not, it's not odd. It's a pattern. Is there something you'd like to tell us?"
Yes.
You are delusional.
But go ahead, use your mad googling skills, and prove me wrong.
The Giants aren't playing tonight.
So, go ahead, make my day, lol!
garage mahal said...
"Tim
And no, I wasn't putting two and two together because of the city of your favorite football team."
No worries on that score.
People have been running that tired old joke into the ground since the mid-70's. Too many idiots still think it funny. Go figure.
Anyway, your devotion to your failed boyfriend is insane.
Worst president since Carter, no positive accomplishments to speak of, failure drapes everything he's done, and yet, there you are, the last man standing for Obama.
12 more days, and then he's a one-term, failed president, for the rest of history.
It is very interesting that none of the usual Obama defenders have jumped in to defend him on Benghazi.
Obama himself continues to stonewall.
And of course there is nothing wrong with liking sports teams from San Francisco. Of all the teams available to root for, you just happen to be deeply passionate about San Francisco teams! Some people like pro teams because they are from there, or spent time there, or, they just like the uniforms and how they fit the players. It's totally up to each fan.
Hey Garage, one more thing.
All those homosexuals in San Francisco?
Do you know where they come from?
Wisconsin, and places like Wisconsin.
What's wrong with you people?
But one thing I would like to make perfectly clear.
The 49er's suck.
Just sayn'
(and it is not because they are from Frisco)
My wife thought Steve Young was cute, for example.
Nobody is more overrated than the Packers.
Well except for Obama but that goes without saying.
garage mahal said...
"And of course there is nothing wrong with liking sports teams from San Francisco. Of all the teams available to root for, you just happen to be deeply passionate about San Francisco teams! Some people like pro teams because they are from there, or spent time there, or, they just like the uniforms and how they fit the players. It's totally up to each fan."
Actually, one is better off rooting for the team one grew up with, or is the team of one's hometown area.
Which works for me, on both points.
Baron Zemo said...
"Nobody is more overrated than the Packers."
You are free to pay more attention to the NFL.
It couldn't hurt.
My wife thought Brett Favre had a substance abuse problem.
She was right.
Funny thing though, both periods of the Packers' recent successes trace immediately to the San Francisco 49ers and the local area: Holgren was born and raised in S.F., and was the Niners O-Coordinator before becoming the Packer HC; Mike McCarthy was the Niner O-Coordinator before becoming the Packer HC, and Aaron Rodgers, of course, is from Chico, a mere 3.5 hours northeast of S.F., and he went to Cal, a mere 30 minutes east of S.F.
San Francisco has its fingertips all over recent Packer successes.
But I'm sure many Packer fans choose to forget that...might make 'em queer, lol.
I don't know but I did follow the NFL last season and saw both the very overrated Packer's and 49er's fall to a vastly superior team.
Just sayn'
Oh and the even more overrated Patriots as well.
Just sayn'
I think that overall it is going to be landslide of epic (64-72-84) proportions.
I think it is so bad that Obama will find himself having a heart attack next week and withdrawing from the race.
Don't worry. Due to the miracles of modern medicine, he will make a full recovery and be on the speaking circuit by June.
I've put my money where my mouth is with several bets that he withdraws, for whatever reason.
Petraeous came out today saying, more or less, that Obama ordered military/CIA support in Benghazi to stand down. Obama refused to deny it in a TV interview.
The heart attack might not be necessary. Virtual tar and feathers might do the trick.
John Henry
Someone's electoral college math supremely sucks. New Hampshire and Wisconsin are favored for the president, but please, tell me which other battleground states got Mittens up to 256.
garage: "Thinking that the latest revelation (BENGHAZI!) would sink the incumbent"
Except in Scott Walkers case there was no "revelation", which is why he was not "sunk".
Again, the desperation on the part of the left to minimize and/or ignore the deaths of these Americans is really something to behold.
But hey, in the age of obama, what is most important is that islamist supremacists feel "validated".
So I'm looking through this thread and coming to realize that, the fanboys don't seem to understand the existence of something called the Electoral College.
This long-lost tribe calls itself "Republicans", and clings to irrelevant methods of determining national leadership. Fascinating. Will report back with further dispatches later.
John: "I think that overall it is going to be landslide of epic (64-72-84) proportions."
I have to disagree with that.
We are still in the true margin of error for most of the midwest swing states and that's not even counting the 7-10 states already baked in for obama.
Very different than 72 and 84 for sure.
But not so very different perhaps from 2004, with the parties reversed.
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