In the last Marquette poll, released Oct. 3, Baldwin led Thompson 48% to 44%, but her advantage was half the size of the 9-point lead she had in a Marquette poll two weeks earlier.How did Tammy ever get out in front? She's the most liberal member of the House of Representatives. Tommy's old and was perhaps too lackadaisical about what it would take to win, but still.
Also in the new poll: Obama 49%, Romney 48%.
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१६ टिप्पण्या:
Surge.
Coattails.
Obama will get a bump from last night but the next debate is Monday and it will be Syria, Egypt, Iran and Libya. Maybe some Afghanistan but I favor getting out tomorrow and stopping payment on the check to Pakistan.
I believe that Tommy will outperform Romney Ryan by more than 2pts and should win.
Michael K said:
"Obama will get a bump from last night."
I am cautious about predictions, but I tend to agree with Meade's (pre-debate) call. I don't think the needle will move.
As for Thompson: I've done some phone-calling for the R/R campaign, calling all over the state. Quite often, people told me they were voting for Romney and Baldwin - without knowing much about Baldwin.
Me: Do you favor Obamacare?
Voter: No, no, it should be repealed! I want Romney to do it!
Me: Do you realize Romney can't do it on his own? We'll need control of the House and Senate as well as the WH. Baldwin will never vote to repeal Obamacare. Thompson will.
Voter: Oh. Well, in that case...
Tommy ran out of money after the primary. Couldn't respond to Baldwin's negative ads. It showed in the polls.
In the event Thompson wins, I hope Andy takes it personally.
I still find it hilarious that some people still think that Tommy Thompson, arguably the most popular governor this state has ever had, is going to lose to one of the 5 most radical liberals in the US House in a statewide election.
Tommy will beat Baldwin by a bigger margin than Scott Walker won by.
"Michael K said...
Obama will get a bump from last night ..." No way. Any movement will be to ROmney
As for Tommy, as others have said he did little ads or campaigning early, but is in full mode now. Cya Tammy.
exiledonmainst said...
I am cautious about predictions, but I tend to agree with Meade's (pre-debate) call. I don't think the needle will move.
FWIW, that seems to be the consensus of even the Demo talking heads last night.
As I've said before, the two choices leave me very cold. I'm leaning towards Tommy vs. Tammy simply because he'll be a one-termer before retiring. Maybe (maybe) a non-career politician will be on the ballot next time. That would be grand (wistful sigh).
And If Tammy loses, maybe the Democratic Party of Wisconsin will finally wake up and smell the coffee and tell Dane Co to get stuffed.
Romney nailed Obama over and over again last night, in spite of that blatantly biased moderator and the stacked audience. The media can pretend otherwise all they want - but the focus groups from two different networks show the voters are not quite as stupid as the media thinks they are.
Romney wins big - as big as Walker did - and Tommy T pulls it out too.
Agree...Tommy will be a one-termer, but that is not bad. The world will be very different in 2018.
Tommy needs outside groups to run attack ads on Tammy. Not stupid ones, but ads talking about how far out in left field she is.
Considering Thompson's son was just caught--on video--saying Obama should go back to Kenya, I'm guessing this lead vanishes once that video gets out on the public airwaves.
How did Tammy ever get out in front?
How quickly we forget the +11 D sampling of that first poll.
I still find it hilarious that some people still think that Tommy Thompson, arguably the most popular governor this state has ever had, is going to lose to one of the 5 most radical liberals in the US House in a statewide election.
This.
Tommy will win Wisconsin, on the under ballot, "Best Screenplay" theory.
Many disappointed Obama voters from 2008 will pull the lever for him, begrudgingly, in 2012, but a vote for Tommy is a vote for their discontent with the direction of the economy, foreign policy, the country. Just as a critically well-received film will win a Best Screenplay Oscar to compensate for its being up against a popular-consensus "superior" film in the Best Picture category. So if Obama is "The Artist," Tommy is Woody Allen ("Midnight in Paris").
That's my theory and I'm sticking to it until disproved in about three weeks.
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