New Marquette Law School poll has Walker ahead by 6 percentage points (and Romney and Obama tied in Wisconsin).

Full report here:

[W]ith three weeks to go until the recall election Governor Scott Walker has taken a six-percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. Just three percent say they are undecided. In the previous poll, taken April 26-29, Walker held a one-percentage point lead among likely voters, 48-47. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47 to 41-percentage point lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided....

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents....


Voters split sharply along party lines in their evaluation of six personal traits of the candidates. The poll asked how well the following words or phrases described each candidate: honest, decisive, cares about people like you, fair, inspiring and provides strong leadership. Across the six traits, an average of 76 percent among Democrats said that these traits described Barrett either “extremely well” or “very well.” In contrast, an average of only 22 percent of Republicans said these various traits described Barrett. For Walker, an average of 88 percent among Republicans said these six traits described him well, while only 23 percent of Democrats thought so. Among independents, an average of 47 percent thought that the traits described Barrett well, while for Walker an average of 54 percent thought so. Barrett has a less firmly established image than does Walker, with 8-13 percent unable to say how well the traits described him. For Walker only 2-4 percent were unable to say if a trait applied to him.

Walker’s strongest trait among independents was “decisive,” with 70 percent saying that described him. His weakest trait among independents was “fair,” picked by 49 percent. For Barrett, independents thought “honest” was most descriptive, at 53 percent, while his weakest trait was “inspiring,” picked by 38 percent of independents. Crossing party lines, Barrett got his highest rating among 31 percent of Republicans for “honest,” while 48 percent of Democrats said that Walker was “decisive.”

In the Lt. Governor’s recall neither candidate is as well known as the top of the ticket contenders. Republican incumbent Rebecca Kleefisch has a 25 percent favorable to 31 percent unfavorable rating, with 43 percent unable to give an opinion. Democrat Mahlon Mitchell has a 19 percent favorable and 10 percent unfavorable rating, with 71 percent unable to give a rating.

Collective bargaining continues to divide the electorate by single digits. Voters prefer to keep the current collective bargaining law rather than return to what it was prior to last year, by a 50-43 percentage point margin. Restoring collective bargaining is supported by 78 percent of Democrats and opposed by 81 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 53 percent want to keep the current law while 38 percent want to return to the previous law. In the April poll, 49 percent said they favored limiting collective bargaining for most public employees, while 45 percent opposed such limits. In the January poll, using different wording, the public was more evenly split, with 48 percent favoring limiting public employee bargaining over benefits and non-wage issues, while 47 percent were opposed.

Walker’s job approval stands at 50 percent while 46 percent disapprove. In April 47 percent approved while 51 percent disapproved. Views of Walker also divide sharply over ends and means. The poll asked, “Which of the following statements come closest to your opinion of how Scott Walker has done as Governor? ‘I like what he’s done as Governor,’ ‘I like what he’s done but not how he’s done it’ or ‘I don’t like what he’s done as Governor.’” Thirty-seven percent said “I like what he’s done as Governor,” while 38 percent said “I don’t like what he’s done as Governor.” Twenty-two percent said “I like what he’s done but not how he’s done it.”

"Like what he's done" get's 2 versions — so you get to opine on the way he's done the thing you like. It would be funny if the "don't like" option had a choice to like the way he's done it: "I don’t like what he’s done, but I like the way he's done it."

Anyway. Seriously. Walker looks to be in fine shape, and what's more, conservatives seem highly activated and on task. The people of Wisconsin seem to be ripening into conservatives. On the morning of November 2, 2010, I wrote a post titled "Waking up in a red state." It was startling at the time: Walker, both houses of the legislature, Ron Johnson toppling Feingold. Those who didn't believe this could be happening fought hard. Maybe it was a weird and temporary deviation. The protesters chanted that they were what democracy looked like and they mounted their recall in search of the true read of the people of Wisconsin. Now, what?