Althouse: A scientific calculation of the advantages and disadvantages of the 2 leading candidates in the Wisconsin recall primary...

April 30, 2012

A scientific calculation of the advantages and disadvantages of the 2 leading candidates in the Wisconsin recall primary...

"Final score: +1 for The Kathleen. (Toasting Mary Bell of WEAC and Marty Beil of AFSCME.)"

13 comments:

Joe Schmoe said...: BLASKA! That is fucking hilarious! Jolly good show, old man.

I wonder what profile name Blaska comments under here at Althouse...; 4/30/12, 10:17 AM
traditionalguy said...: Blaska has the right props calling this report Science and showing pictures of men wearing white lab coats. Now his conclusions are unchallengable.; 4/30/12, 10:31 AM
edutcher said...: This guy could make big bucks handicapping the Oscars with that system.; 4/30/12, 10:43 AM
ndspinelli said...: Marty Beil has lost a lot of weight! And, his sartorial skills have improved. The satirical photo should show Falk wearing blaze orange. She will play the "I'm a hunter" card to try and get male votes from outside Dane county.; 4/30/12, 10:58 AM
David Blaska said...: I do, too, Joe Schmoe.; 4/30/12, 11:03 AM
MaggotAtBroad&Wall said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/30/12, 11:31 AM
jungatheart said...: Althouse (may I call you Ann), please consider doing a post on Intrade. Seems fascinating, and I'd like to hear some commenter insights.; 4/30/12, 11:40 AM
MaggotAtBroad&Wall said...: NOTE: I deleted the original comment made at 4/30/12 11:31 AM to edit it slightly. I initially definitively stated in paragraph four that there are no laws prohibiting campaign insiders from Intrade participation. But that may not be an accurate assertion, as I am not an expert in election law. Sorry.

That is a clever and entertaining article. And clearly scientific.

However, I prefer the accumulated wisdom of everybody in the world who is willing to put actual cold hard cash down on their predictions on Intrade.

As of the exact moment that I'm writing this, the "market" of everybody in the world willing to put cold hard cash down on their prediction says Barrett has an 87.5% chance of winning the Democratic primary and Walker has exactly a 70% chance of winning the recall.

One final note. As far as I know, there are no laws prohibiting campaign staffers, strategists, internal pollsters, etc. from participating on Intrade. So it's possible that some of the people responsible for "making the market" have access to a real information edge. Not everybody placing a bet is necessarily a degenerate gambler.

I suppose candidates and campaign managers may have rules that prohibit insiders from exploiting such proprietary information in the Intrade prediction market. But it's still relatively new, small, and unregulated, so who knows.; 4/30/12, 11:54 AM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: Yeah but Tom is promising a wind power job in every pot and a trolley in every garage.; 4/30/12, 12:07 PM
BarrySanders20 said...: Has a liberal woman from Madison ever won a statewide race in Wisconsin?

Maybe Peg "Tipsy" Lautenschlager counts? But I think she was from upstate somewhere before her Madison days, and then she got Falked in the primary.

Feingold certainly qualifies as liberal and from Madison, so we know liberal men from Madison have won state-wide races.

But what about our fellow Gyno-Americans?

You have to think Walker wants Falk as his opponent. That would force the public sector union issue to the forefront where it belongs.; 4/30/12, 12:38 PM
ndspinelli said...: Peg "Two glasses of vino" Lautenschlager got beat in a fucking school board race recently. Maybe dog catcher next time.; 4/30/12, 2:19 PM
jungatheart said...: Was Blaska this funny at the Isthmus? Great article.; 4/30/12, 2:34 PM
Joe Schmoe said...: @David Blaska; I know. I was just reprising one of my favorite exchanges over the past year. I paraphrase from memory:

Chip S.: I wonder what screen name Blaska comments on here...

David Blaska: David Blaska?!

Chip S.: A likely story, Byro.

(At least I think it was Chip S. Ah, the good old days of Byro...)

And David, that was a great article. P.J. O'Rourke or Chris Buckley would be proud of that one.; 4/30/12, 8:42 PM