Is that crazy? John Cassidy says:
The point isn’t that Obama won’t win but that in order to do so he will have to follow the time-honored Democratic route of rampaging around the Great Lakes and squeezing home in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. It’s also not as if he doesn’t have anything to say to voters in these areas....
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42 comments:
He's going to skip blue states like WI and MI and go to VA?
Only AP would think that scenario is workable, particularly since he's famously underwater in PA (36% approval) and NJ (44%).
And there's also that nasty reality of only 58% approval among black.
And this assumes everything stays the same for the next year, including his approval levels.
He was at -24 all week in Rasmussen's approval index and dancing between -22 and -23 the week before. Not a whole lot there in which to take comfort.
I don't have a problem w/ rich (or even just fairly well off) disgruntled white men.
But, the idiots who don't make much dough and can't come close to the work ethic of eager immigrants (documented, or not)...for them I only have one word: LOSER.
If Obama is giving up on Ohio, he is truly desperate.
I simply do not believe it. He needs to act like he's viable in Ohio. If he isn't, it's probably a landslide loss anyway.
He's so far back in PA, too. So I assume MO and FL.
Wow.
The GOP should nominate someone with a real mission of reform over a pure RINO for sheer electability. We need to play like we can actually accomplish something in the next four years, instead of nominating another Bob Dole or George HW Bush.
Cain or Perry, IMO.
"...where disgruntled white men are ominously thick on the ground..."
This sentence should get John Cassidy a Bulwer-Lytton award.
Bypassing Wisconsin is not possible. Maybe Michigan and Ohio are goners, but Wisconsin is the home of Garage Mahal.
No way Obama would abandon such a loyal supporter.
But keep an eye out for buses, Garage.
For Obama, Florida is toast. Re-configure that!
Mr.President! Mr. President!
what's an "urban professional" and why are they assumed to be Obama supporters?
It’s also not as if he doesn’t have anything to say to voters in these areas....
"I'm sorry" comes to mind. That's about it.
But, the idiots who don't make much dough and can't come close to the work ethic of eager immigrants (documented, or not)...for them I only have one word: LOSER.
WTF? What the hell does race and sex have to do with it? If you weren't a racist sexist bigot, you'd hate the poor regardless of skin color.
I like being ominously thick!
Urban professionals in Nevada? Where?
Hispanics, sure, but a lot moved back to Mexico because of our horrible economy.
But Obama has had 3 chances to visit the Hispanic community or the black community and he refused. He just visited the Strip and City Center. Hardly the epicenter of minority votes.
Obama needs to concentrate on 7
states,and skip the other 50.
Urban professionals in Nevada? Where?
Agreed. That is one reason that I loved living in Northern Nevada. No real urban center. But, you can get to a ski area in 20 minutes.
Vegas though is the demographic center of the state, and that is where he would have to win big (he isn't going to win the north or central part of the state regardless). Dan is right though, it isn't a typical urban center. The casinos are fairly heavily unionized, and they were key to Harry Reid's reelection. But he also had the casinos themselves heavily backing him, which I doubt that President Obama will have. Interestingly, Harry Reid beat his son by almost double digits on the same ballot - which I think indicates that it was Reid, Sr., personally, who pulled out the win.
The other thing to keep in mind with Nevada is that it is one of the four states that the Republicans were promised Senate seats from if Utah got statehood. The Mormon population is relatively large, esp. in the power centers in Las Vegas. Harry Reid, being LDS, pulled a lot of this vote, esp. those who work in the casino industry. Obama won't, esp. if Romney is his opponent.
Colorado has been shifting left a bit, but not as much as some think. The Senate seat was winable, but probably not the governorship. Bennett was weak, but Hickenlooper is the type of candidate that Coloradoans love. He is not a career politician, but rather a successful businessman before running for mayor of Denver for a term or so, which is rare for Democratic politicians. And, he is eclectic, which they also love. (Obama counts as a career politician because he didn't have a real job before going into politics).
Part of why I think that Obama won Colorado was that it is, if I remember correctly, the best educated state (ignore for now that a lot of those college grads are most typically underemployed). How could they resist the well spoken black man with degrees from Columbia and Harvard? Esp. compared to an old salt who graduated near the bottom of his class at Annapolis?
But, Obama has failed miserably in his handling of the economy, and the normal swing voters are less likely to vote for him just because of his education and skin color. It doesn't help either that he vacations in Mass. and Hawaii. Living and vacationing on the east coast indicates to many westerners that he is out of touch with most of the country.
And, do not discount the "once fooled, shame on you, twice fooled, shame on me" effect, esp. with those who think that they are better educated, and thus, smarter than everyone else, and, esp. if they are really independents. They really don't want to explain to their friends and people at work why they voted for four more years of recession, corruption, and scandal.
Romney though has two graduate degrees from Harvard and made a fortune working in business. Plus, Colorado is next door to Utah, and so a lot of people know Mormons, and they don't scare them. Some of my parents' best friends were Mormons, and they were pretty normal - you just needed to make sure that you had something besides wine when they came to the house for a party.
So, if the Republicans nominate Romney, I think the Republicans will carry Colorado. Possibly Cain. Bachmann?? But there has always been a bit of distrust of Texans, maybe even more than easterners, and Perry is all that Coloradoans see wrong with Texans.
57-state landslide folks.
And Barack Obama won't be the Democrat Party nominee.
You read it here first.
The path to an Obama electoral win is to expand the Anti-Capitalist "protest" and cripple the urban centers of America.
After this, they can provoke official police response and hope for a "Kent State"...then gleefully sit back and watch the media call for yet more change.
Well, listen, there is no Obma path to the Presidency. He's Jimmy Carter II...Landslide coming, so pick the most conservative candidate and let's resume being America.
econus.blogspot.com
I fear the rumblings of the angry sock monkey falling into depression are true, and if so, all bets are off. I can see Oblahblan calling in all his little union/socialist puppets, Acorn, the New (as opposed to the old)BBP, CodePinko, and every other libtard group who has a left over smelly hippie from the 60's in charge, and tellin' 'em "Let's light the fires and kick the tires"
With advisors like Jarret, Trumka, and Axlerod, and "Moochie" as Marie Antoinette, I just don't see this ending without some one being seriously injured, if not killed.
If this apocalyptic vision becomes reality, then all who voted for this utter failure should bear some of the responsibility because the signs were all there.
Prof. Althouse states that she voted for the SCFOAMF for logical reasons. but I can't follow that logic. How you can ignore someone sitting in Jeremiah Wrights so called church for 20 years and never heard any racism? Or sitting on a Board with Willy Ayers, and not know he's a socio-path? He voted to let a baby die rather than trying to save its life!
You people who voted for this thing showed such bad judgement that I believe you are willfully blind. No one can be that stupid, can they?
But every day the OWS sits in their own feces while blogging on their laptops, and taking videos with their cell phones, not seeing the idiocy of protesting the very system that made them wealthy enough to have those things. My Dad told me never to insult a farmer while my mouth was full. The Left insults the world with their milk stained pewlings.
That reminds me of the scene in This Is Spinal Tap where the manager tells the band that the show in Boston has been cancelled, but adds that "Boston isn't much of a college town anyway."
Keep it up and 'O' will have to bypass 75% of the country as they will all have pitchforks waiting for him.
Truely Obama's Admin. really is getting 'shovel ready' to be dumped in 2012.
"And, do not discount the "once fooled, shame on you, twice fooled, shame on me" effect"
I see a campaign ad around this theme.
You gotta be kidding. Talk about sending a message.
If Obama is looking to shore up Colorado and Nevada, he is truly screwed. He needs those as givens assuming NC and VA flip back red as they are more than likely to do (he just won't get the white independent vote again in those states).
He needs to focus on just 4 states - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Indiana.
See 270towin.com.
Obama destiny is the same as everything else he has tried...failure. The only problem is that he can't simply leave this mess behind. He will live the rest of his days pimping to change his legacy...a bitter angry man.
What's Axelrod going to say?
"Mr. President, you have no chance. I recommend you pack it in, and I'll go find another high paying, powerful job."
No, they're going to lie to Obama about how he can win, right up to the very end.
I just went for a 3 mile walk here in SW Ohio. Oddly enough, I didn't see one disgruntled white man (or any other race or gender) thick on the ground.
Did see a dead possum, and tons of Walnuts.
The only thing less-popular than Barack Obama these days is Ebola.
He'll keep the bulk of the African-American vote, but still loses something like 42-44 states,including a bunch of usually lead-pipe-cinch NE ones.
Can Obama even win Massachusetts?
Romney came the closest of anyone to knock off Kennedy, and wasn't exactly a failure as Governor.
If Obama cared about something besides Obama, re-election wouldn't be much of an issue and there would be far fewer disgruntled men, white or otherwise. And far fewer disgruntled women of every color.
Ann,
have you considered the theory that there is a correlation between shale oil / gas recovery activity and the tendency of political districts /wards/counties and precincts to vote GOP? Look at PA results and the Congressional districts that went RED in 2010 were largely Marcellous Shale districts.
I guess is that increased shale oil / gas lease royality papyments cause leasees to align with the GOP.
When the Clampetts mmove to Beverly Hills did they register as Democrats or GOPPERS?
"And, do not discount the "once fooled, shame on you, twice fooled, shame on me" effect"
November '12 isn't just an election, it's an intelligence test.
Matthew said...
"The only thing less-popular than Barack Obama these days is Ebola."
Boy, I really wish this were true.
But 90-95% of the idiots who thought he was experienced enough and his ideology was acceptable enough to earn their vote as president very likely haven't learned from their mistakes, and will vote for him again.
I hope I'm wrong.
No angry white men in Virginia? You've got to be kidding! I expect he'd get an earful if he made a campaign stop somewhere around Bristol or Martinsville.
"November '12 isn't just an election, it's an intelligence test."
2008 was an intelligence test, too. But, as we teachers are wont to do, when the class fails miserably we make the next test easier. Anybody who gets this one wrong, well, I just don't know ...
@Tim,
Different circumstances underlying this election.
2008 was about dissatisfaction with the status quo, made arguably worse by the unattractive GOP Team that the party vomited up. John McCain was a rotten candidate,and Sarah Palin couldn't polish that turd enough to get it across the finish line.
On the other side, your choice was between Clinton and Obama, and she simply isn't a believable candidate, anymore. Although in hindsight, it now appears as if Clinton was probably the lesser of the three potential evils.
Obama offered 'different', and that was enough for most. That there was no 'there' there didn't seem important, at the time.
Now it's all about employment and pocketbooks, extra wars we didn't sign up for, and the prospect of Carter-like malaise as far as the eye can see.
Obama is toast, even if he did have bin Laden shot in the friggin'face. Nothing wakes people up faster than realizing they can't pay the rent or buy food.
It's not crazy -- complaining about disgruntled white men worked before and may well work again.
Maguro,
This sentence should get John Cassidy a Bulwer-Lytton award.
Or just a Bullshit award.
Some more thoughts - Fast and Furious may lose Nevada for Obama. Not as much so in Colorado, but will likely be of some importance through much of fly-over country.
The scandal can be depicted simply as Obama not getting gun control legislation through Congress, and so setting out to illustrate what he and his people see as a major problem of too many guns and too easy access to them. And in order to do this, the Administration had the ATF expediate arming the weaker of the two major cartels in Mexico, knowing that the guns there would be traced back to the U.S.
That the scheme went awry says a bunch of things to many who know already about the scandal. First, that the libs will do anything to take guns out of the hands of civilians, and thus, further strengthen the monopoly the state has over their power.
Secondly, that the program failed so disastrously indicates that the left doesn't live in the real world. That they would so blithely do something that most reasonable people would have seen had a high likelihood of killing a lot of people also indicates a certain callousness towards life, and esp. the lives of brown people living south of our borders. And, it shows their total lack of touch with reality.
This also shows a certain arrogance and disregard for the American system. They knew best what was good for us, and if the laws weren't in their favor, they would bypass them, and if the Constitution was in their way, they would bypass that too.
The more people who know and understand the scandal, even if no other facts come out, which they assuredly will, the lower Obama's poll numbers are going to go. Except maybe in the liberal heartlands of the NE, DC, IL, HI, CA, and maybe OR. I think that it will even hurt him in VA and CO (and definitely in NV), having lived in all three.
The other scandals aren't going to help Obama either. Much of the Stimulus (I) seems to have gone to his cronies. We are saddled with the debt and unemployment, while his friends and supporters have made millions.
It doesn't help that there is a money trail there to reinforce the crony socialism argument. And his harping on his "Jobs" bill won't help either - you just have to look at what was in there to see that much of it was further payouts to his people (i.e. bailing out teachers, fire, and police; "green energy"; infrastructure; etc.)
Corruption is a natural byproduct of government, and the bigger the government, the bigger the corruption. And, the function there does not appear to be linear, but rather, a power or exponential relationship (i.e. curving up).
@ sorepaw
The rumor down South is that BHO will go to NC & VA.
Worse than that - he might start his bus tour starting in Asheville (visiting Asheville for the THIRD time in 32 month term).
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