Nearly half of his own base — 45 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents — want someone to challenge him for the Democratic nomination...The strategy for Obama is obvious: Make more liberals!
And, assuming he wins re-nomination, barely more than 1 in 3 voters, or 36 percent, said they'll definitely vote for him, while nearly half, 48 percent, said they'll definitely vote against him....
Among groups lining up against Obama early:
Whites, by a margin of 57-27
Those planning definitely to vote for him rather than against him:
- Men, 55-31
- Independents, 50-30
- Midwesterners, 51-35
- Southerners, 54-32
- Westerners, 47-41
- Minorities, by a margin of 57-28
- Northeasterners, 39-36
- Liberals, 74-17
November 24, 2010
"Obama's looking weak for re-election in 2012."
According to a new McClatchy-Marist poll:
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65 comments:
The strategy is obvious:
Another grand immigration amnesty!
20 - 30 million bought and paid for new Democratic voters.
If your expectations are low, it's harder to screw up.
Hey - it's time to break out Oprah!
Alot can happen in 2 years
As the Roe Effect theory teaches us, it's unlikely "new liberals" get "made".
So, as ST has indicated, they have to be imported. That plan has been in effect for decades and is beginning to show positive effects for Democrats.
Pro-growth economic policies would probably get him re-elected. But he is either unwilling or not smart enough to realize that.
The more obvious scenario:
Obama wins in 2012, Republicans take the Senate and maintain the House.
Chase: I think that's a likely scenario. The republicans are self destructive in presidential politics (John McCain!! Really?)and its not looking like that will change.
I know I can count on the GOP to compromise their compromises. To get a better seat at Martha's Vineyard.
So I think post 2012 will look the same in DC as it does now.
Assuming the nation still exists.
I think the only solution is for the Tea Party to replace the GOP.
It will be almost impossible for Republicans to NOT pick-up the Senate.
Senate seats up for re-election in 2012:
Republicans: 10, 3 vulnerable
Democrats: 23, 13 vulnerable
Additionally, Republicans now control the most governorships, particularly in states where reapportionment is crucial to Republicans chances.
Probability on Republican takeover of Senate 2012: 85%
"Obama wins in 2012, Republicans take the Senate and maintain the House."
I'm not sure about Barry winning but the latter is highly probable.
It will be almost impossible for Republicans to NOT pick-up the Senate.
Excuse me, but we're talking Republicans here. If I told you last May that Harry Reid would be reelected and Mike Castle would not win the open senate seat in Delaware, would you have believed me?
Yes, Obama will probably win in 2012, because I think the economy will probably rebound.
Obama will win because blacks vote as a block for Democrats.
Which is why, after all, Democrats must continue to prosecute the Racism hysteria.
Bigot-O-Mania is how the Democrats continue to play for the black vote. Well, you've also got to add in the quota system and welfare handouts.
Democrats buy the black block vote with tax money.
The strategy for Obama is obvious: Make more liberals!
The counter-strategy is equally obvious. Operating on the assumption that most conservatives are liberals who got mugged, send squads of muggers into limousine liberal neighborhoods.
As some have noted (Madison Man, me, and now Fen) 2012 is a LONG away--I agree with Chases's analysis: given the vulnerable Senate Dem seats, they have the most to lose in the next election--I frankly would prefer divided government with Mr Obama, a lame duck with low approval numbers, and a GOP controlled congress. Its just less for either party to screw up. The less government the better--and it would be even more fun if there were a challenge to Mr Obama from within the Dems. I just don't know who that might be--but damn: it would be fun.
Unless the economy gets a lot better and foreign policy stops looking like 1979, all the predictions of The Zero's re-election are way optimistic.
Too many people here don't remember '80. Or '68.
shoutingthomas said...
The strategy is obvious:
Another grand immigration amnesty!
20 - 30 million bought and paid for new Democratic voters.
The outlook for DREAM don't look good. Too many Demos running for re-election in states where this is unpopular. There's also the Pew survey, which can be worth as much as you want it to be, that says less than 30% of Hispanics support amnesty, a drop of almost half in 3 years.
"The strategy for Obama is obvious: Make more liberals!"
Good luck with that, given that his centrist, corporate-friendly and Bush-continuing policies thus far have alienated many liberals who have supported him.
Maybe he ought to try passing a few liberal policies if he wants to win (or win back) more liberal voters.
I don't think he realizes it has been his pandering to the Republican/Corporatist agenda which has hurt him, so I certainly don't expect he will shift leftward of center, but will probably move further right.
FAIL.
Good luck with that, given that his centrist, corporate-friendly and Bush-continuing policies thus far have alienated many liberals who have supported him.
Jesus, Kookie, we can always count on you to weigh in from another planet.
Ground control to Major Tom!
How to you celebrate Thanksgiving. By singing the Internationale?
If I told you last May that Harry Reid would be reelected
I never discounted Reid's chances because of the dirty nature of his past political shenanigans. I never considered it truly open. The same with Barbara Boxer. Never believed they wouldn't win.
``````````````````````
Obama will win because blacks vote as a block for Democrats.
It's true, but in national elections for President it doesn't really matter - the size of the black electorate is pretty much stable for the foreseeable future (black Americans comprise 13% of the population, and that's going to remain the same for a long time). The "hispanic" vote is what matters for Republicans. Self-identified Hispanics - now 16% of the American population - will be over 20% by 2020, over 30% by 2050. And that's huge.
Have you read the Sailer Strategy?
All he needs to do is make family formation expensive so that either people are dependent on the government or they don't have children. Import new voters. Instant democratic base.
"I don't think he realizes it has been his pandering to the Republican/Corporatist agenda which has hurt him"
The Republican agenda is not corporatist (is that a word?). The Democrat agenda is not corporatist. The root of the problem is a big government able to hand out the goodies to the rent seeking corporations, and the politicians eager to oblige in order to keep their cushy gig. The bigger and more powerful the government, the bigger this problem becomes.
EDUTCHER JOHNSON IS RIGHT!!
Millions of us will be using state law to question Obama's eligibility if he does make it till 2012.
He is not a natural born Citizen, since his father was NEVER a citizen. No matter if Obama 2 were born in the White House.
The GOP is finished. The irony is that they do not even know it - this is like Brett Favre being sacked as he cannot see his blind-side. You the GOP are done.
I must repeat that Obama polls will be of no relevance. Have you been at the airport when Air Force One lands? Have you been at a campaign rally (2008) with Obama-Biden? And so on.
The GOP has no chance. No chance. Not even a slim chance.
The GOP will have a devastating defeat in 2012 so bad that will destroy the party. Good riddance.
Palin/Huckabee/Romney/Jindal/etc. will be so buried that it will look like an earthquake has hit the GOP.
Let us face it: 2012 is the death year for the GOP. You will lose it all: WH (of course), Senate (you already lost it), and House (the new Speaker is such a cry-baby, wait till the comedians take him on in Jan.)
You are done. You are finished. Save yourself. Support the Administration.
The fed is predicting that the economy of 2011 will be a continuation of the economy of 2010. Anemic GDP growth, with unemployment in the 9% range.
It is difficult to see how Obama can win reelection if that is the case. If the fed's economic predictions are correct, Obama will likely suffer a primary challenge that will weaken him further.
I am amazed at the number of liberals who think that Obama's policies are forming some kind of tidal wave of prosperity that is just taking its time in building and breaking.
There are no signs whatsoever that this is the case.
Fortunately, liberals are exercising their Constitutional right to abortion a lot more than Conservatives are.
The republicans are self destructive in presidential politics
Huh?
I seem to recall that they've won 5 of the last 8 presidential contests.
When I think of marginal Presidential candidates I think of Mike Dukakis and John Kerry.
Fortunately, liberals are exercising their Constitutional right to abortion a lot more than Conservatives are
I get the joke and understand what you're saying, but it never makes for good snark.
Whilst Obama is, and has been, an utter disaster, he still has to be defeated by someone in order to lose re-election, and I don't see who's going to be able to beat him.
The only person substantively positioned to do so is Sarah Palin, and I'm not optimistic that she can overcome the smearing that has hindered her so far.
The others, though? Romney? Huckabee? Douchetastic!
He doesn't care. He has set in place "the framework." The apparatchiks will grow and grow these horrible agencies until it's too late.
"The strategy for Obama is obvious: Make more liberals!"
He can't. Most of them have been aborted.
"He doesn't care. He has set in place "the framework." The apparatchiks will grow and grow these horrible agencies until it's too late."
I call this the "Obama is smart" hypothesis. He knows his policies are an economic disaster, but he is willing to be a one-term President (as he, of course, said himself) for the reason you state. A maryter for the liberal cause.
The "Obama is dumb" hypothesis is self explanatory.
Totally agree, Mike.
"Another grand immigration amnesty!
20 - 30 million bought and paid for new Democratic voters."
Two Democrats making a little Democrat is apparently a job that those Americans just won't do.
"The only person substantively positioned to do so is Sarah Palin....
Nope.
Two things wrong with your scenario:
First, outside the incestuous community of the radical right, Palin is not seen as adequate to the job, even by many who like her otherwise;
and,
Second, Ms. Palin has not shown that she really wants the job, and I don't believe she does. She enjoys the limelight, the ephemeral power and glory of celebrity, and, of course, the large green that her celebrity allows her to rake in, and by teasing her base that she is "considering" a run, she keeps herself positioned in that public eye she loves so much, (except for when people are so mean to her). As shown by her quick abandonment of her governership, she doesn't have the necessary fortitude or work ethic to be President, or even to manage a successful run.
But, the powers that be managed to get nonentity George W. Bush into office, so I guess nothing is impossible.
Too bad Ted "Fredo" Kennedy croaked..he could have reprised his role from the Carter years.
RC
Second, Ms. Palin has not shown that she really wants the job, and I don't believe she does.
I'm not a huge fan of Palin For President, but I will say that there has been talk of people working for her shopping for office space in Iowa. Make of that what you will.
If the fed's economic predictions are correct, Obama will likely suffer a primary challenge that will weaken him further.
Nope, won’t happen. You heard it here and mark your calendar. While past performance is not indicative of future results, every time a challenger has tested the presidential incumbent the challenger loses. Consider the state of the nation when Kennedy challenged Carter (granted we are talking Teddy here) and Kennedy got the boot.
What you might see is Obama pulling a Johnson or Truman and just declining to run which is a possibility if the economy tanks even further or the NORKS just go ape shit and decide to flatten Seoul and drag us into major shooting war where you’ll see real body counts and he does a Carter and twiddles his thumbs.
Plus consider an insider primary challenge against Obama will weaken and already weakened Democratic Party which is the last thing they want. My guess is the Dems are praying the GoP does something stupid like trying to impeach Obama (which I don’t put past them) and galvanize support ala Clinton. So forget Hillary! She’s already stained (no pun intended) by being part of this administration and she had her chance two years ago and screwed the pooch. Her supposed ‘closest supporters’ dumped her like a cheap Friday night date for Obama so its wishful thinking that she’d get any backing for a challenge.
every time a challenger has tested the presidential incumbent the challenger loses.
Well, it's not like this administration isn't replete with "first time's".
"...outside the incestuous community of the radical right..."
OK, who invited blabbermouth Robert Cook to the last Pastafarian family reunion/orgy?
Mr. Hoosier Daddy, I am afraid that you misunderstand me. I don't think a leftward challenger to Obama in the 2012 primary will best Obama, but it will weaken him.
But as for Robert Cook's words:
But, the powers that be managed to get nonentity George W. Bush into office, so I guess nothing is impossible.
Cook is deep in liberal delusion. Bush Was elected and re-elected Governor of the second largest state in the union by clear majorities. Bush is also heir to a political dynasty. One brother a governor of the 4th largest state, father a president, grandfather a US senator, great grandfather an adviser to Hoover and a member of the Federal Reserve Board in Ohio.
Compared to George W. Bush, Obama is a non-entity, but I bet Robert Cook ran to the polls to vote for him.
ohbygod yes...with palin at 185 among republicans this is a turkey shoot.
Someone take the bet with this sock puppet. He didn't specify a year. (nobody tell him we noticed)
I bet a million dollars or more.
The GOP cannot (not possible at all) win the WH in 2012.
It is over. Accept it now.
HenHouse, AP and Kookie agree that Palin is unelectable!
Make way for President Palin!
Three more completely out-of-touch goofs could not exist.
Read and weep.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/business/21stra.html
Let me repeat - as you seem not to get it.
The GOP CANNOT win the WH in 2012.
lol
The above doom and gloom is from the same guy who said this back in October...
have been consulting/campaigning/advising all day. We have to meet our target: 224 in the House and 54 in the Senate. I was helping the DE GOTV.
Look, do not get me wrong, I stand for truth and the American way.
There is no change - no chance in hell - that GOP has any chance in 2010 or 2012. There is a greater chance of snow falling in DC on July 4, then GOP gaining anything in the House and Senate (in 2010) or coming close to the Presidency (in 2012).
The effort planned by us - all who support the President and VP - is so huge that you all are totally off-base. As I said before: GOP is the party of the dead. Give up now or be disappointed on 11/3/10.
Care to 'splain how you were so wrong then and could be so right now? Assuming you're a real person...
I still say sock puppet.
First, I said that my polls got an error. This affected the House.
The Senate is still close 53.
The main issue: It does not change the fact that the GOP will NOT
(repeat, NOT) win the WH in 2012.
Do you want to buy the Brooklyn bridge?
GOP = 2012 WH LOSERS
I don't remember, because I wasn't paying attention. Did AP predict the Democrats would hold the House?
Yes he did. See my 2:07 comment. Which contains this tidbit...
There is no change - no chance in hell - that GOP has any chance in 2010 or 2012. There is a greater chance of snow falling in DC on July 4, then GOP gaining anything in the House and Senate (in 2010) or coming close to the Presidency (in 2012).
Very few people thought that the GOP had a serious chance to take control of the Senate. You gloating about it smacks of canyon screaming. You were utterly wrong about everything else. You lack serious cred...if indeed you are a real person. My vote is for sock puppet.
Only missed that one by 25 seats. And you claim people actually pay you for this sage advice?
Obama will not even go for the second term. He does not need all that hard work, he's not a type for it. He'd obtained star status of Mr President for the rest of his life already. Now he can enjoy his celebrity and make money by doing what he loves doing best - just talking, with no responsibility attached.
Robert Cook: Palin is not seen as adequate to the job
That doesn't mean much coming from those who chose Obama.
Like getting advice from the broker who told you to go big on Enron...
@Rialby
That plan has been in effect for decades and is beginning to show positive effects for Democrats.
Unfortunately it also has a downside that eventually bites them in the political butt, re: California.
@fen
Like getting advice from the broker who told you to go big on Enron...
Or advised buying Euros.
The new D'Souza book The Roots of Obama's Rage is right on the money. He says Obama pretending to be in the middle is his greatest public relations ploy but to do it he posits two outrageous positions -- some want no taxes, and some want 100% taxes -- I just want to tax 50% of income --
D'Souza says he laughs like crazy every time he sees Obama use this gag, and is amazed that not everybody has figured out the formula -- posit two outrageous positions that no one holds, and then say, I'm between those two, to seem moderate.
shoutingthomas said...
Yes, Obama will probably win in 2012, because I think the economy will probably rebound.
Obama will win because blacks vote as a block for Democrats.
---------------
Not if whites determine they cannot stand the guy.
That assumes they carry the Independents, and yet another factor weighing against Palin, if she pulls a Christine O'Donnell and wins the primaries and the Republican nomination - is that Independents cannot stomach Palin.
AS for the monolithic black vote - their slavish loyalty to Democrat bosses hurts their bargaining power. Smarter demographic groups than blacks have their vote in play between the two Parties. HIspanics trying to get a piece of the pie tend to have their way blocked not by whites - but by 100% black Democrats in city positions wanting the choice things going to "their people" who have suffered many grievances needing restitution by society, not Mexican johnny come lately interlopers.
Blacks have been driving "coalition partners" away more than all but the extreme Republican right wingers "shoot the Mexicans!", have.
The final thing is that blacks beholden to Democrats are all too frequently beholden to "black leaders for life" that tend to concentrate patronage and the lions share of funds to their inner circles that have dined well on the backs of other black voters that get little or nothing for generations. It would be in blacks interest if they could be competitive in another Party and drive these old school civil rights dinosaurs out and catch black politics up to the 40 years that have passed.
Because other groups than blacks turn over power more frequently - power is more diffused within those communities, as are benefits.
Though Obama looks weak, no conservative looks that strong. Maybe Christie, but I don't think he's running. Jindal hasnt been terrible, but he's kind of exotic. I liked Romney, but most conseervatives think he's a liberal squish (even though he would know how to balance a ceckbook). Sarah Palin, while good as a kingmaker and opinoin pusher would not, I think, make the best front runnner (though she would make a good vp). So whos left. Hopefully not Huckabee and please god not Ron Paul.
Scott M and Original Mike and others:
You are all clueless. Clueless = Losers. Obama-Biden will destroy the GOP ticket. Even I - a nobody - can defeat the GOP. Hell, you have no idea what happens when the Air Force One lands. No idea. As a consultant (who gets paid), I can tell you are smoking something not right.
Just give up. Do yourself a favor. Give up.
Obama will defeat everyone in the GOP most spectacularly everywhere in Nov. 2012.
You are finished. You are done. Join us. Be a winner. GOP is a losing proposition.
America's Politico said...
First, I said that my polls got an error. This affected the House.
Really?
An 60+ seat error, huh?
When Franken stole the Minnesota Senate seat, the Democrats had it all. There was a Democratic President. They had over 60% of the House of Representatives and 60 Senators with RINOs like Snowe, Collins and others to fill in any holes. They accomplished very little except a health care bill that more and more Americans hate as they learn about how they're getting screwed. The Democrats simply blew it.
Oh, and AP, I've seen Obama rallies and airport arrivals. It isn't hard to make up an "enthusiastic" crowd when the SEIU is willing to bus in supporters and the King of Astroturf Axelrod is working full time to keep up appearances.
The 2012 Presidential race will be decided by the Republicans in Congress. If the GOP stays dedicated to improving the economy and limiting government there will be a Republican in the White House in 2013. If they yield to insideritis, Obama will be reelected. It's as simple as that.
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