Althouse: The snow at dawn.

December 9, 2009

The snow at dawn.

71 comments:

Fred4Pres said...: That is some nice snow. I want to go play in it.; 12/9/09, 8:10 AM
Mr. Bingley said...: Looks simply lovely.

Sit around the fire with Meade all day.; 12/9/09, 8:16 AM
Anonymous said...: It's really a shame that global warming has reduced the snow totals to these paltry levels.

Clearly there will be no further requirement to "hide the decline."

Those Copenhagen hookers need to get busy fisting our elected leaders so they'll cool down the planet down some more.; 12/9/09, 8:16 AM
KCFleming said...: Beautiful.

This suggests Joni Mitchell's line:

"White flags of winter chimneys
Waving truce against the moon""; 12/9/09, 8:17 AM
Richard Dolan said...: Snow is best when it behaves itself and stays on the ski mountains, out of the cities. It's pretty for about, oh, 5 minutes. And then you have to shovel it out of the way, to get on with life and all. Shoveling can make a grinch out of anyone (and chez Meadhouse, you have a long suburban drive/sidewalk to deal with).

This video makes me want to check out the cheap condos for sale in Palm Beach. The bank's loss can be your friend.; 12/9/09, 8:23 AM
Paddy O said...: Snow is also best when classes are done for the year and there's no need to fight your way through it. Snow is best when you can sit inside with a warm fire, a pot of good coffee, and someone you heartily enjoy.; 12/9/09, 8:26 AM
Joan said...: I'm sure the growl of the snowblower is a nostalgic sound for some people, but the sounds I associate with snow like that is the shush-scrape-thump of snow shovels clearing sidewalks and driveways.

And I am so glad I live where it never snows.; 12/9/09, 8:26 AM
AllenS said...: I put the tractor in the shop yesterday, and today I'll put on the chains. I screwed up. Should have mounted the plow on the tractor, but, nooooooooo. The car is also in the shop, and I'll change the oil. We got snow, but hard to say how much. The wind is fierce, and it's two feet deep in places where it drifted.; 12/9/09, 8:33 AM
Original Mike said...: Hey, I'm at work. What's the big deal?; 12/9/09, 8:33 AM
Joaquin said...: Ah, smart lady!
Windshield wipers in the up position!; 12/9/09, 8:35 AM
Brian said...: Haven't seen that much snow since I went skiing in Colorado many years ago. Seeing the snow in Wisconsin makes me want to go skiing again, but it will take me longer now to get into shape.

We had snow in Mississippi over the weekend, and I missed it, because I was out of town. It's rare to get enough snow here to make snowballs, and it doesn't usually last long.; 12/9/09, 8:35 AM
Salamandyr said...: Pretty. Here in St. Louis it's nothing but flurries, along with 30-50 mile an hour winds.

I think I'd rather have the snow. (but not the snow and the winds.; 12/9/09, 8:39 AM
Omaha1 said...: looks like you can use your new skis right in your neighborhood. In Omaha we are also drifted in with 10+ inches of snow and wind chills around 20 below, so I am not intending to make much of an effort to get to work today. I have not taken a "snow day" since before 2004 so I don't feel too guilty about it.

wv: pinglyr - the sound of ice falling from the trees and landing on power lines.; 12/9/09, 8:41 AM
Bissage said...: WARNING: Dumb, Adolescent Joke Follows:

Q: Why was Frosty the Snowman so happy?

A: He had a date with the snow blower.

Booooooooooooooo!!!; 12/9/09, 8:53 AM
KCFleming said...: I was up at 4 this morning, used the snowblower until 5:30, then got ready for work. I live within walking distance, but even so, scaling the plow piles in the middle was no small task.

It was very quiet for 6 a.m., few cars, no other walkers. Serene.

My first patient had 10 x-rays and over 200 pages of outside records to review.; 12/9/09, 8:56 AM
bagoh20 said...: One of the most ecstatic feelings in my memory is as a child looking out the window first thing in the morning in rural western Pennsylvania and seeing a scene like that and hearing on the radio that school was canceled for a snow day. Pure bliss.; 12/9/09, 9:02 AM
Ann Althouse said...: "and chez Meadhouse, you have a long suburban drive/sidewalk to deal with"

No, we don't. The houses are close together in this old neighborhood. The "suburbia" of the 1920s is not what you think of when you think of suburbia.; 12/9/09, 9:08 AM
KCFleming said...: "Pure bliss."

Second that.

My high school junior at home was still thrilled at the opportunity to sleep in today.

My daughter, just out of college, unable to find anything more than a store clerk spot over the holidays, was chagrined to discover that businesses do not call off the day similarly.

I refrained from comment.; 12/9/09, 9:09 AM
Original Mike said...: I was up at 4 this morning, used the snowblower until 5:30, then got ready for work.

I wanted to starting blowing at 5 so I could get to work on time, but I didn't have the heart to make so much noise that early so I waited till 6. Got to work late, but hardly anyone else is here at the UW Hospital.; 12/9/09, 9:15 AM
kjbe said...: It looks great and now it's really, really blowin'. A nice day for a fire and a book...; 12/9/09, 9:15 AM
Richard Dolan said...: "No, we don't. The houses are close together in this old neighborhood."

OK. It's all relative, I suppose. From Brooklyn Hts, it looks pretty suburban and not so close together (we know 'close together' here, as you will recall). I suspect you have more than my 25' frontage/no driveway to shovel, though.; 12/9/09, 9:31 AM
garage mahal said...: Hey, I'm at work. What's the big deal?.

Yea same here, me and one other guy.; 12/9/09, 9:56 AM
rhhardin said...: Wind (video) but no snow in Ohio this morning. Fifty degrees.; 12/9/09, 10:00 AM
KCFleming said...: This particular morning my driveway was, as I estimated while blowing snow, about 3.5 miles long, which is considerably longer than I thought.

My least favorite snowblowing time is the 30 mph blowback into my face and down my neck.
Yummy.
Takes all the beauty to zero.; 12/9/09, 10:01 AM
Original Mike said...: Takes all the beauty to zero.

You might want to use negative numbers for this one.; 12/9/09, 10:03 AM
Anonymous said...: My best snow story is when I moved to Minnesota in the fall of 2001, just in time for the Halloween Blizzard of '91.

Over two feet of snow, which stayed on the ground pretty much until April.

I didn't last too long in Minnesota.; 12/9/09, 10:13 AM
howzerdo said...: We're getting hammered as I type this. The amount was under predicted, but it isn't as much here as in Wisconsin and some other places. I love all the seasons, including winter and its snow.; 12/9/09, 10:16 AM
bagoh20 said...: If you want to see the missing Global Warming raw data and how it looks unadjusted check it out with graphs and all. The data was kept at three different facilities and has been analyzed at this site. Scroll down to see great graphic comparisons of the raw versus adjusted. The skinny: The raw data shows a cooling of 0.7/century, no warming. The adjustments though are clearly anthropogenic.

Settled Science?; 12/9/09, 10:18 AM
Original Mike said...: Yeah, I read that too, bagoh20. It was pretty jaw-dropping. It's going to be mighty, mighty interesting now that the world is going to get to see the "adjustments" that have been done to the data. A lot of smart people are going to be asking, "OK, and the justification for this adjustment is?"

Now, it might not be realistic to look at all the adjustments individually. But if we do a statistical analysis and find a strong bias for upward adjustments, that would be bad for the GW crowd.; 12/9/09, 10:24 AM
rhhardin said...: Dog investigates possible cause of wind. (video); 12/9/09, 10:26 AM
Simon Kenton said...: The snow has settled to about 8", the wind abated, and it's -14F in a canyon near Boulder. On our walk the malamute romped. I've read they don't even ramp up their metabolism until -20F; this has to be a crypto-Rather: false but illustrative.

I'm giving a minor prayer of thanks that the residents in our fire district are pretty careful sedate drivers so I haven't been called out on any MVAs at -10F in the middle of the night. Other first responders in the rest of the county, not so lucky.

The aberts and fox squirrels are hibernating, so if here Ms Althouse could briefly breathe easy; their time for plucking hairs from the heads of law professors to line their dens and dreys is past. For a few weeks, it was the annual fall ravagery, with panicked law professors skittering past the house and focused herds of squirrels in hot pursuit, each seeking the high-status silver-blonde-fox-professor hairs that will signal to their brood that they have been borne to the non-parvenue, Our-Kind-of-Squirrel Nobility of the Neighborhood.

The local patrolling red fox has been passing through each morning, listening intently for deermice under the snow, rearing up and pouncing, pinning one, tossing it neatly in the air, snapping it up, trotting off to mark the elk antler in the snowy garden, with mouse dangling from each side of his mouth. For this the nearly-girdled apple trees give their own minor prayer of thanks.; 12/9/09, 10:28 AM
bagoh20 said...: I still think Climategate is the biggest story of my lifetime, if it's true of course. One thing is beyond reproach though and that is how people reacted to the information before this discovery and after. That is what I really find telling about our global and national cultures. It's stunning to me. AGW, if true, was the biggest story in history, if a fraud, it still is, but way more informing and interesting.; 12/9/09, 10:35 AM
Original Mike said...: I was watching the Weather Channel this morning and one of their field dufuses was in Waukesha. He said he didn't know how people were going to cope with a snowfall of this magnitude. Then he offered the suggestion that we will just have to wait for it to melt.

This was a new guy. I haven't seen him on-air before. I wouldn't be surprised if I never see him again.

Wait for it to melt. Sheesh.; 12/9/09, 10:39 AM
knox said...: Beautiful. Can't wait for it to snow here.; 12/9/09, 10:42 AM
Widmerpool said...: Hope you're friends with that neighbor with the snow blower.; 12/9/09, 10:48 AM
chuck b. said...: Is that what that is? I thought it was a bug zapper.

It's not even winter yet.; 12/9/09, 10:54 AM
garage mahal said...: bagoh20
So the theory is that there is a vast multi-continent conspiracy spanning decades of liberal scientists faking data at hundreds of measuring stations around the globe.....with the ultimate goal of.....? Destroying capitalism? It's just plain loopy dude.

Why didn't they fake the data starting 1998 showing a cooling trend?; 12/9/09, 10:58 AM
Omaha1 said...: My husband and I and our best (female) friend once camped out when it was five below zero. That was several years ago and the older I get the less I appealing I find that kind of adventure.

However, the coldest cold I ever experienced was when we took our heavy-coated husky mix for a walk over a frozen lake. We could not even drive to the boat ramp as the parking lot was filled with drifts of six feet and higher, and the wind was howling. Despite all of our high tech cold weather gear our hands became instantly numb upon exiting our (AWD) car and did not warm up again until after several minutes of brisk walking.

wv: farlappe - the distance required for a dog's tongue to reach the unfrozen water in the middle of the lake.; 12/9/09, 11:02 AM
Unknown said...: When I saw the opening frame, my first thought was, "Very pretty".

Then I saw the cars buried and I said, "Oh, God", and thought of all the fun it's going to be to dig out.

Of course, Meade, macho guy that he is, can't wait to hit all that stuff with his brandy new, thermonuclear, ramjet snow blower.

My philosophy: This is why God made ten year olds and teenagers.

Snuggle up, you two, and, when you do go out, watch it on the ice and packed snow (yes, Ann, I know you've lived there forever). You guys may feel younger than springtime, but you've still got old bones (like mine) and, at our age, as Dale Robertson once observed after falling off a horse, you don't bounce, you break.

howzerdo said...

We're getting hammered as I type this.

The landscape or the people inside?

WV "dillmone" What a lady dill does when she really lets go.; 12/9/09, 11:16 AM
KCFleming said...: When my son was in 8th grade and still in Boy Scouts, I joined him on their January camping badge experience.

The leader was a Gulf War vet, and able to navigate outdoors without any devices at all. We left the barely tolerable shelter at midnight for an hour long hike. It was 17 below.

It was one of those glad-I-did-it-don't-ever-ask-me-to-do-it-again things.

I was thinking 'Donner party' the whole time.; 12/9/09, 11:16 AM
Anonymous said...: "So the theory is that there is a vast multi-continent conspiracy spanning decades of liberal scientists faking data at hundreds of measuring stations around the globe.....with the ultimate goal of.....? Destroying capitalism?"

No moron. Just a few crappy "scientists" with a lot money to make on climate grants that historically have never been well-funded.

Same story of greed throughout history.

Are you so uneducated as to know that this is not the first time scientists have faked their data collection? Or made dumb mistakes they were to embarrassed to fess up to? Remember desktop fusion? Human cloning?

No conspiracy is needed nor is there one.

Just plain old human greed and massive ego, combined with a typical total lack of supervision by their University supervisors thanks to their having tenure and being un-fire-able.

But never fear - fraud investigators are on the case and all your base are belong to us.; 12/9/09, 11:25 AM
bagoh20 said...: Garage,

It's data, facts, science, observation and history. In fact, I bet you said just that before the data was actually examined by skeptics. That examination is what makes it science and fact.

You can believe what you want and that is what I find so interesting and informational about us. What we choose to believe and what we refuse to regardless of evidence.; 12/9/09, 11:32 AM
bagoh20 said...: You do realize, Garage, that this is great news, if true: The world is not going to go bad, and we don't have to make painful sacrifices that could harm millions of people. Now why do you want that catastrophe so bad? That is the answer to your question as to why such a fraud could happen. Loopy indeed.; 12/9/09, 11:37 AM
bagoh20 said...: "Why didn't they fake the data starting 1998 showing a cooling trend?"

They are right this week in Copenhagen, with the IPCC claiming this to be the hottest decade on record.; 12/9/09, 11:41 AM
Simon Kenton said...: Just about clicked 'send' too soon. We were toned out on a possible structure fire by the neighboring district. You could sense congruent thoughts in houses all over the hills and canyons as we went for our gear: "Shit! Stand around pumping water in -10 while the hoses freeze closed and a sheath of ice forms on the firefighters and a cloud of diesel fumes envelops the scene and a frozen lake of busted coccyx fills the driveway. Shit!" The truck bitched and balked, the 4WD creaked and chattered, and a blessed cancellation came through - somebody was burning slashpiles of beetle-killed pine. Back to house and on-line Xmas shopping.

WV - equat. The cry of the duck who thinks he's just as good as you, despite your snooty airs.; 12/9/09, 11:43 AM
garage mahal said...: They are right this week in Copenhagen, with the IPCC claiming this to be the hottest decade on record

And the true data lies.....where?; 12/9/09, 11:47 AM
bagoh20 said...: "And the true data lies.....where?"

Do you really care?

The truth lies in science. Science requires peer review, skepticism, honesty. The IPCC has little of any of that. Nor does the "science" so far". This is a huge case of accepting the authority of people rather than process. The people clearly abandoned the process here.

I'm willing to accept the truth if AGW is proven. I'm pretty sure you will not accept the opposite outcome. I don't think you even want to find out the truth unless it is what you already "know".; 12/9/09, 11:56 AM
howzerdo said...: edutcher: hehe. The people are waiting until later. Shovel + hammered could = those broken bones you mentioned.; 12/9/09, 12:06 PM
Original Mike said...: Did you read the link, Garage?; 12/9/09, 12:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Snow was a wonder-filled escape when I was a kid. It's when the world went silent, so silent you could hardly hear your own voice. Only the sound of snow, falling.; 12/9/09, 12:49 PM
Original Mike said...: Here's a "winner": How not to measure temperature; 12/9/09, 12:55 PM
bagoh20 said...: Original Mike,

Due to issues like that link shows, a lot of the data is pretty much garbage or worse. Unfortunately, I fear there are very few surface temp measurements that can be relied upon. The methodology is just too messy. Even a measurement taken today would be suspect, so how can we trust ones taken decades ago under undocumented conditions. I would have this objection regardless of what the measurements show.

We need a complete redo, to determine the reliability of data, excluding stuff like that in your link. I think more reliance on large sample sizes of ice cores, tree rings, etc. for past data and satellites can give recent data to check the accuracy of recent ice and tree type data.

If we get a fair examination, I'll take the result, whatever it is. What to do about it is a complete different subject, but why would you start running in any direction before you know where you are? That's called panic and usually ends bad.; 12/9/09, 1:17 PM
Original Mike said...: Where's garage? Still reading the links, I guess. Good for him.

I have to say, as a scientist, I look at the temperature sites they're posting pictures of and am at a loss. The only thing I can think of is the people who put them up didn't care about the quality of the data.; 12/9/09, 1:28 PM
garage mahal said...: Mike
So we can't measure temps around asphalt? How is that "artificial" data? Whether is a thermometer there or not, the temp is still the same.; 12/9/09, 1:34 PM
Original Mike said...: You're kidding, right?; 12/9/09, 1:40 PM
garage mahal said...: No.; 12/9/09, 1:46 PM
Original Mike said...: Don't just look at the picture. Look at the graph from that site. Then read the link. Look at the spike in temperature when they moved the site to it's current location. The infrared off the asphalt and the building will produce an elevated measurement w.r.t. the surrounding countryside. And think about what happens when a car with a hot engine parks there.

And even without the discontinuity in the data because of the move, when you make a measurement you seek to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). If you're trying to monitor climate, you want measurements that are not contaminated with local effects that swamp the one you're looking for. This site has a very high level of noise (artifactual teemperture related to the site, not to climate) that I can't imaginae pulling the real signal out of that data.

While I picked this link because I thought the picture said it all, the really more meaty link is the one in bagoh20's 10:18 post. Read that if you're at all intellectually curious.; 12/9/09, 2:01 PM
garage mahal said...: The infrared off the asphalt and the building will produce an elevated measurement w.r.t. the surrounding countryside. And think about what happens when a car with a hot engine parks there..

Look, I'm not afraid of data whatsoever. If there are problems where these stations are located, it's perfectly good science to look at it. I haven't had a lot of time to read up on these stations to argue it one way or the other, although it is interesting. On the other hand, how do we even measure what the temperature is in NYC? We can't say because there are people and sidewalks there? Also, are these stations "adjusted", do you know - between urban and rural sites? It would hard for me to fathom coming in 2010 and suddenly realizing every temperature we've ever recorded is corrupt because where that temp was recorded.; 12/9/09, 2:41 PM
Original Mike said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 12/9/09, 2:46 PM
Omaha1 said...: While we were chilling at home on our snow day we won tickets to a Kiss concert Friday night. I have no interest in attending a Kiss concert but my stepdaughter is also stranded here because of the storm and she has a friend that would like to attend with her.

My husband was listening to sports radio and they had a "Ndamukong Suh Heisman Trophy Acceptance Speech" contest and this was my entry:

(to be sung/spoken in Johnny Cash voice)

I weighed fifty pounds when I was two
And mom didn’t know just what to do
When my preschool teacher screamed and ran away.
I went to Grant High in Oregon
They all were scared of Ndamukong
But this old boy named Suh would have his day.

Well, in Arlington on December five,
Our BCS chance was still alive,
So I thought I’d get myself a sack or two.
If I ran down that football field,
And made their world-class linemen yield
The press might gain respect for Mr. Suh.

Well Texas thought I was quite a joke
but I gave ol’ Colt McCoy a poke,
And after that he just could not get through.
Our fans were cheering “Go Big Red”
Some lineman laughed and I'd bust his head,
I tell ya, life ain't easy for a boy named "Suh."

Later I added a couple of additional verses:

I got four sacks, and then some done
And time ran out and it seemed we’d won
When they put another second on the clock
We were down by two and they got to kick
They made three points which made me sick
The refs that did that should be in the dock.
[alternate obscene verse “Those crazy referees can suck my cock.”]

There’s not much else I could have done
Without me we’d have never won
Our record would be dismal without me.
I’m not some fancy quarterback
But whatever you think I lack
I’ve earned my shot at that Heisman Trophy.

wv: popyqzb - what Colt McCoy said after being hit by Ndamukong Suh.; 12/9/09, 2:49 PM
Original Mike said...: If you're trying to see small changes in global temperature, you don't go anywhere near NYC. You can't deal with the uncertainties and you don't need it.

re: adjustments, in order for them to be successful, you still need to get a reasonable SNR in the raw measurements.

And speaking of adjustments, go read the other link.; 12/9/09, 2:51 PM
garage mahal said...: If I wasn't the only mofo to show up for work I probably could go and read the link :); 12/9/09, 2:54 PM
Original Mike said...: No one will know.; 12/9/09, 2:58 PM
bagoh20 said...: OK, so lets say I have one of these temp sensors up my ass. Since I am on the earth and there are many like me, this would be a valid temp data point of said orb. If I then use that to extrapolate that the earth is 98.6F all day, every day, then I have pulled that science out of my ass.

Hope that helps.; 12/9/09, 3:07 PM
Original Mike said...: That's not the way to win friends and influence people, 20.

I will give your answer full credit, however. It illustrates the point.; 12/9/09, 3:15 PM
bagoh20 said...: I bet I could make a pile of friends with my sensor project. I just recently retired from alien abduction studies. I could reuse some of the equipment.; 12/9/09, 3:26 PM
Original Mike said...: Here's another very worthwhile piece, garage. It takes two or three readings to digest, but it's worth the effort.; 12/9/09, 3:31 PM
bagoh20 said...: Well Mike, that link pretty well nails these guys. I can't believe they almost got away with that. It's Enron all over again. They may still get away with it to some degree. Every day I'm getting more skeptical of everyone and I don't like it, but it seems appropriate considering recent history.; 12/9/09, 4:16 PM
Original Mike said...: Well, this is a big, complex issue, 20, so I wouldn't jump to that conclusion. But I have seen enough over the last weeks to come to the conclusion that the "the science is settled" meme is hollow. The data issue needs to be fully vetted. And I don't see how anyone who looks at this issue honestly can come to any other conclusion.; 12/9/09, 4:47 PM
Roux said...: It's beautiful but what a pain in the butt when you have to go to work. Thank God I live in the south. I always wondered why my Swedish Grandfather settled down here.

FWIW I was 60 today in Baton Rouge. I think it'll get down to about 50 tonight.; 12/9/09, 6:45 PM
vbspurs said...: "Is sex dirty? Only if it's done right."

Sex isn't dirty. It's only dirty if you don't wash.

Cheers,
Victoria; 12/10/09, 1:17 AM