tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post5550081466883982896..comments2024-03-28T14:57:10.962-05:00Comments on Althouse: "The American military strike against Syria threatened Russian-American relations on Friday..."Ann Althousehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01630636239933008807noreply@blogger.comBlogger124125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-56149363463389522982017-04-10T15:49:35.446-05:002017-04-10T15:49:35.446-05:00@J Farmer Late comment!
The Russkis have to be ni...@J Farmer Late comment!<br />The Russkis have to be nice to the Turks if they ever want to get their Navy in and out of the Black Sea. It would be absolute insanity to piss off the Turks and have them close the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. Tartus is a good base and I agree that Russia benefits from it, but it can not handle major repairs on Russia's most modern vessels. It does work as an effective thumb in the eye for us, but only until we decide to cripple it which we are unlikely to do. khesanh0802https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792377924992548208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-69062613697044773432017-04-10T15:49:11.918-05:002017-04-10T15:49:11.918-05:00@J Farmer Late comment!
The Russkis have to be ni...@J Farmer Late comment!<br />The Russkis have to be nice to the Turks if they ever want to get their Navy in and out of the Black Sea. It would be absolute insanity to piss off the Turks and have them close the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. Tartus is a good base and I agree that Russia benefits from it, but it can not handle major repairs on Russia's most modern vessels. It does work as an effective thumb in the eye for us, but only until we decide to cripple it which we are unlikely to do. khesanh0802https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792377924992548208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-87259433019629690602017-04-09T16:22:19.244-05:002017-04-09T16:22:19.244-05:00@khesanh0802:
J. Farmer It's a long way from ...<b>@khesanh0802:</b><br /><br /><i>J. Farmer It's a long way from the Black Sea to Tartus.</i><br /><br />Agreed, but Tartus is an extremely important facility for Russia, and it is the primary reason they are interested in seeing the survival of their client-state, Syria. I think the notion that Russia wants to "take" Constantinople from the Turks is absurd. And even if Russia had such desires, it has no conceivable means of achieving it in the short-term. The Soviets were major supporters of Turkish revolutionaries during the war for independence, and they maintained good relations throughout out the 1920s and early 1930s. When Stalin demanded bases on the Turkish Straits, he quickly pushed Turkey into the western security orbit. However, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russian-Turkish relations have gone well. Even after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane near the Turkish-Syria border in 2015, the Russian response and reaction was relatively muted, and normalization continued by mid-2016.J. Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09118902560282089997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-69410380716187042762017-04-09T14:27:08.184-05:002017-04-09T14:27:08.184-05:00I think they're going to discuss a political s...I think they're going to discuss a political solution to their civil war.Rustyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00938263272237104128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-78696367880024822082017-04-09T14:06:55.522-05:002017-04-09T14:06:55.522-05:00@Rusty Yes, what's going to happen next with ...@Rusty Yes, what's going to happen next with that agreement with the Russians to remove and destroy all Syria's chemical weapons? Another one of Obama and Kerry's harmful pieces of paper. Stay tuned.khesanh0802https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792377924992548208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-4618397098073495332017-04-09T11:35:42.613-05:002017-04-09T11:35:42.613-05:00Russia and Turkey have been fighting, off and on, ...Russia and Turkey have been fighting, off and on, over the Bosphorus Strait since at least the 16th century. mockturtlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10507310332014103437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-24844868764791030972017-04-09T10:03:37.280-05:002017-04-09T10:03:37.280-05:00J. Farmer It's a long way from the Black Sea t...J. Farmer It's a long way from the Black Sea to Tartus. Access to the Med is through the Bosphorus for Russia. That's a pretty restricted place to move a naval force through. The Black sea fleet is basically bottled up in the Black Sea. Tartus is a point of resupply and shore support with some repair facilities. I don't think it is comparable to our facility in Naples, but I imagine that's what Putin would like.<br /><br />From Wikipedia: "The Tartus facility can accommodate four medium-sized vessels only if both of its 100 m floating piers, inside of the northern breakwater, are operational. It is not capable of hosting any of the Russian Navy's current major warships which range in length from the 129 m Neustrashimyy class frigate through the 163 m Udaloy class destroyer, much less cruisers such as the 186.4 m Slava class and the 252 m Kirov class, or the 305 m Kuznetsov class aircraft carrier."<br /><br /><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Sixth_Fleet" rel="nofollow"> For comparison, the US Sixth Fleet. </a>khesanh0802https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792377924992548208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-72933004252018220892017-04-09T08:55:56.892-05:002017-04-09T08:55:56.892-05:00Now Russia has to live up to the bargain they made...Now Russia has to live up to the bargain they made to rid Syria of WMDs or look complicit in the gassing.<br />Putin does not have the men or material to double down and confront the US in the Med.<br />Trump might be an asshole, but he isn't a stupid asshole.Rustyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00938263272237104128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-866551663500038742017-04-09T05:18:54.003-05:002017-04-09T05:18:54.003-05:00"Victory looks like Syria not using chemical ..."Victory looks like Syria not using chemical weapons.<br /><br />The strategy is to punch a bully in the nose when he fucks up."<br /><br />Exactly right. Taking out the airfield was a quick measured response to the new top guy's authority, and was dealt with accordingly. Another gas attack, another airfield lost, and then, maybe the rest of the airfields if there is a third attack. The Russians (and thus Assad) will likely get less warning the second time, and maybe none the third. Except that there won't be a third. Assad needs his airfields more than we need our 1,000 lb bombs. Bruce Haydenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10815293023158025662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-91302300496729917492017-04-09T02:31:49.651-05:002017-04-09T02:31:49.651-05:00Antiphone Could you cite your sources when you ins...<i>Antiphone Could you cite your sources when you insert quotes? It helps on follow up. Thanks.</i><br /><br />OK, it was lazy of me.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/08/us/politics/trump-doctrine-foreign-policy.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news" rel="nofollow">Here</a><br /><br /><i>On Syria, Mr. Trump had mocked President Barack Obama for setting a “red line” against the use of chemical weapons and urged him not to launch a punitive strike against Syria after Mr. Assad crossed it in 2013. That attack, with a death toll of 1,400, dwarfed last week’s toll of 84. And just days before last week’s attack, Mr. Tillerson indicated that Washington would accept Mr. Assad’s remaining in power.<br /><br />Indeed, critics, including Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, argued that Mr. Assad felt free to launch a chemical attack precisely because Mr. Trump’s administration had given him a green light.Russia, critics added, did not constrain Mr. Assad because it has had a blank check from an overly friendly Trump administration. And Mr. Trump’s efforts to bar Syrian refugees from the United States, they said, sent a signal that he did not care about them.</i><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.startribune.com/obama-aides-push-back-against-criticism-of-inaction-on-syria/418724813/" rel="nofollow">And here</a><br /><br /><i>Trump laid part of the blame for the chemical attack on former President Barack Obama, saying the deaths were a "consequence of the past administration's weakness and irresolution."<br /><br />Republicans, however, who controlled Congress then as they do now, were adamant that Obama should not act without their approval, Obama aides said. Trump also had called for Obama to get congressional approval before any attack on Syria.</i> Heywood Ricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02196900556192534896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-3186026790277378742017-04-09T02:25:00.548-05:002017-04-09T02:25:00.548-05:00Somehow there has developed a sense that the Russi...Somehow there has developed a sense that the Russians are look super-serious people with a wicked team of inhumanly well-trained super spies and assassins.<br />In reality they aren't that smart. They create an environment where they can get stupid people to use brute force and torture and kill people. <br />The downing of Malaysia flight 17 was a clumsy mistake. The idiot Russian speakers in Ukraine chatted about it in real time, unencrypted, in Russian until they realized that they had shot down a civilian plane. Putin says it was a plot by those clever Ukes.<br />The current president of Ukraine, Petro Porochenko, is an oligarch. He is known as the "chocolate king" of Ukraine. Putin will not allow his chocolate in Russia becaue, he says, it poses a health hazard to the drunken Russians guzzling a liter of vodka each day. Something like that. Another plot by those clever Ukes.<br />In a really choice bit of comic-opera foolishness, Russian-speaking "Ukrainian" protesters occupied the Kharkiv, Ukr. opera house because they thought it was the Kharkiv mayor's offices. Apparently they decided it must be the mayors office because it looked really fancy. Another clever Uke plot.Lewis Wetzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01200232293505119133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-3406544584545839132017-04-08T22:44:01.976-05:002017-04-08T22:44:01.976-05:00khesanh0802:
There is no question that Putin, lik...<b>khesanh0802:</b><br /><br /><i>There is no question that Putin, like all the Czars before him, wants access to the Med.</i><br /><br />The Russians have had access to the Mediterranean since the early 1970s via their naval facilities in Tartus. This is part of the reason that Syria is a client state of Russia's. Russia also has access to Spain's port facilities in the enclave of Melilla near Morocco. J. Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09118902560282089997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-90303341095724145882017-04-08T20:23:50.292-05:002017-04-08T20:23:50.292-05:00@Quaestor Interesting analysis. There is no questi...@Quaestor Interesting analysis. There is no question that Putin, like all the Czars before him, wants access to the Med. I am not sure that Russia is militarily strong enough to threaten to"overthrow" Erdogan and I don't think Russia is economically sound enough to tempt Turkey, but incentives and proximity may prove me wrong. Turkey is, of course, a NATO member as well. Syria may turn out to be as much a "tar baby" for Russia as for us and I don't think they have the resources to spare. The missile strike does indeed force Putin to do some recalculating.khesanh0802https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792377924992548208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-27354750090167627432017-04-08T19:58:24.980-05:002017-04-08T19:58:24.980-05:00@Antiphone Could you cite your sources when you in...@Antiphone Could you cite your sources when you insert quotes? It helps on follow up. Thanks.<br /><br />Re your quotes: so it's Trump's fault that Obama made a threat of a red line and didn't follow through; and it's Trump's fault that Assad gassed his people when there was an agreement that he would turn over all his chemicals to the Russians; and its Trump's fault that Assad didn't gas enough people this time; and how did the raid change the US position on Assad retaining his position; and apparently Assad misread Trump's blank check; and Marco Rubio (who had his ass handed to him by Trump) is now the authority on how Assad reads Trump's position on refugees. <br /><br />Your quotation, to use one of favorite figures of speech, is a steaming pile of horse shit.<br /><br />khesanh0802https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792377924992548208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-73895858574026469902017-04-08T19:09:38.057-05:002017-04-08T19:09:38.057-05:00" Brilliant that all of this went down while ..." Brilliant that all of this went down while China was paying a neighborly call."<br /><br />Never let a crisis go to waste!!<br />exhelodrvr1https://www.blogger.com/profile/15874052265934108903noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-64561599307384147652017-04-08T18:25:00.070-05:002017-04-08T18:25:00.070-05:00Obama was a fool to declare a "red line"...Obama was a fool to declare a "red line" and then not enforce it.<br /><br />The Syrians and the Russians weren't too worried about it. I wonder why?<br /><br />I'm guessing they're worried now.<br /><br />I wonder if Iran is reconsidering what to do now that they know they won't be getting pallets of cash and the "don't do it but really just go right ahead" wink wink nudge nudge on their nuclear ambitions, like they got from the last administration. I bet they're just all confused.<br /><br />And hopefully China steps up their game with Fat Boy Kim. Brilliant that all of this went down while China was paying a neighborly call. Swedehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03057618129887829256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-7796822906560882472017-04-08T18:16:28.514-05:002017-04-08T18:16:28.514-05:00Trump laid part of the blame for the chemical atta...<i>Trump laid part of the blame for the chemical attack on former President Barack Obama, saying the deaths were a "consequence of the past administration's weakness and irresolution."<br /><br />Republicans, however, who controlled Congress then as they do now, were adamant that Obama should not act without their approval, Obama aides said. Trump also had called for Obama to get congressional approval before any attack on Syria.</i> Heywood Ricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02196900556192534896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-57412647803012347892017-04-08T17:53:53.510-05:002017-04-08T17:53:53.510-05:00Victory is Syria settling down to peace under some...Victory is Syria settling down to peace under some non-insane ruler more or less acceptable to most of its neighbors. Or split into as many countries as required so each fits the requirements of the previous sentence. buwayahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02388691837737324814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-9723103517091730002017-04-08T17:50:00.237-05:002017-04-08T17:50:00.237-05:00What does victory look like? What's the overar...<i>What does victory look like? What's the overarching strategy here?<br /><br />Victory looks like Syria not using chemical weapons.<br /><br />The strategy is to punch a bully in the nose when he fucks up.<br /><br />It's a little early but....so far, so good..</i><br /><br />What happened to last week's strategy?<br /><br /><i>On Syria, Mr. Trump had mocked President Barack Obama for setting a “red line” against the use of chemical weapons and urged him not to launch a punitive strike against Syria after Mr. Assad crossed it in 2013. That attack, with a death toll of 1,400, dwarfed last week’s toll of 84. And just days before last week’s attack, Mr. Tillerson indicated that Washington would accept Mr. Assad’s remaining in power.<br /><br />Indeed, critics, including Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, argued that Mr. Assad felt free to launch a chemical attack precisely because Mr. Trump’s administration had given him a green light.Russia, critics added, did not constrain Mr. Assad because it has had a blank check from an overly friendly Trump administration. And Mr. Trump’s efforts to bar Syrian refugees from the United States, they said, sent a signal that he did not care about them.</i> Heywood Ricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02196900556192534896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-88360233032319125372017-04-08T17:23:33.183-05:002017-04-08T17:23:33.183-05:00What does victory look like? What's the overa...What does victory look like? What's the overarching strategy here?<br /><br />Victory looks like Syria not using chemical weapons.<br /><br />The strategy is to punch a bully in the nose when he fucks up.<br /><br />It's a little early but....so far, so good.Swedehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03057618129887829256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-29537785665871439792017-04-08T17:19:50.264-05:002017-04-08T17:19:50.264-05:00Say, what do you fellers think the chances are tha...Say, what do you fellers think the chances are that Syria will use chemical weapons again?<br /><br />Slim to none.<br /><br />And Slim left town.Swedehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03057618129887829256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-88823403658609203732017-04-08T17:04:18.104-05:002017-04-08T17:04:18.104-05:00Based on all military experience to date poison ga...Based on all military experience to date poison gases, even nerve gases, are just harassment weapons unless they can be dropped on a very large scale on a concenteated target, which hasnt really been done since WWI. As we see in this case a couple of aircraft sorties against an urban civilian population killed a few dozen people.<br />The could probably have killed as many using 1-ton bombs instead. <br />I suspect the Syrian regime was simply trying to start a panic with a little gas. Thats what Saddam Hussein seems to have done in 1991 to crush the Shiite rebellion. <br />The Iraqis dropped quite a lot of several types on the Iranians but never (that I know of) enough at once to have a decisive effect on the battlefield besides adding to the attrition.buwayahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02388691837737324814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-55261466133920986192017-04-08T16:21:29.109-05:002017-04-08T16:21:29.109-05:00Allt he Russians I've talked to recently have ...Allt he Russians I've talked to recently have been cordial.rhhardinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06901742898653890646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-49782318241642532852017-04-08T16:00:00.919-05:002017-04-08T16:00:00.919-05:00So Questor, ya gonna wish me into the corn, speaki...So Questor, ya gonna wish me into the corn, speaking of stupid avatars, but in your case, fitting. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-21774274538447122672017-04-08T15:49:28.554-05:002017-04-08T15:49:28.554-05:00He's as creepy as you often are.
Coming from ...<i>He's as creepy as you often are.</i><br /><br />Coming from Inga "creepy" is high praise. Quaestor would rather be taken for a creep than a mendacious oaf.Quaestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13688608372863540573noreply@blogger.com