tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post5459022075275291672..comments2024-03-28T15:35:21.498-05:00Comments on Althouse: "I stand entirely behind the above footnote: behind every sentence, every phrase, every word and every syllable."Ann Althousehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01630636239933008807noreply@blogger.comBlogger133125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-64132499609797330412017-09-27T19:44:17.336-05:002017-09-27T19:44:17.336-05:00You already conceded that there was nothing unusua...You already conceded that there was nothing unusually warm about the SST, so maybe you can explain why 'global warming' made the hurricane so strong. Or you could demonstrate that lack of wind shear is a result of climate change, or what are we arguing about?tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-39683435561823330262017-09-27T13:24:28.655-05:002017-09-27T13:24:28.655-05:00I'm happy to view data that shows a lack of wa...I'm happy to view data that shows a lack of wave action in the Atlantic. I've been providing you with lots of links. Have you any to share on wave action anomaly? Or wind anomalies?MadisonManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01212179466758420208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-89242576528838584972017-09-27T11:11:42.620-05:002017-09-27T11:11:42.620-05:00Oh, I forgot... "(sigh)". Did you learn...Oh, I forgot... "(sigh)". Did you learn that from Al Gore?tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-49456926898550234962017-09-27T11:10:37.621-05:002017-09-27T11:10:37.621-05:00You know what else warms tropical waters? Lack of ...You know what else warms tropical waters? Lack of wave action. Lack of wind. Waves fold the water heated by the sun, not the air, the sun, into the cooler water below. tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-18627133233322904222017-09-27T11:08:14.895-05:002017-09-27T11:08:14.895-05:00Oh cool! You found a link that doesn't show an...Oh cool! You found a link that doesn't show any detail about WHERE the temps are slightly above normal, so you don't have to deal with the embarrassing fact that WHERE Irma intensified, SSTs were relatively average. <br /><br />What intensified IRMA was the nearly complete lack of wind shear, which is also why she kept drifting west. I don't know where that was predicted by the GCMs, but if you can show me that, that would be great!tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-40045807908222785882017-09-27T11:03:47.099-05:002017-09-27T11:03:47.099-05:00I would like to see some evidence that you actuall...<i>I would like to see some evidence that you actually live according to the principle that experts do not know better than non-experts and that it is not worth listening to them.</i><br /><br />You obviously are not an expert in reading comprehension, but I suppose if invidious interpretation is your M.O. Go ahead and argue with somebody else who has the time. <br /><br />BTW, you find a climatologist who has seen as many planets as my doctor has seen bodies, I will take his word on stuff mostly too. But since that is not the case, and the science is. in its infancy and computing tools are not yet up to the task, I will examine their evidence and apply my own critical thinking before accepting their word on anything.<br /><br />Look at MadisonMan struggle to even understand the arguments he is making.tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-22711627690288903632017-09-27T10:48:47.097-05:002017-09-27T10:48:47.097-05:00(sigh)
Irma is in the middle of her first rapid i...(sigh)<br /><br />Irma is in the middle of her first rapid intensification, where it achieved Cat 3 Status, in that discussion I linked to, the one that said Irma is skirting cooler temperatures, because the formation was along the climatological gradient in SSTs. <br /><br /><a href="http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/current/ts_al_tat_RSST.gif" rel="nofollow">Here's</a> another link for you. Tropical Atlantic Basin mean surface temperatures. (<a href="http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic_00-24.asp" rel="nofollow">From Here</a>). Above normal.<br /><br />I will further note that I did not dispute any of Curry's comments. I'm only showing you where you can actually see data, rather than rely on someone else's interpretation of the data.MadisonManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01212179466758420208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-74384663548635622432017-09-27T10:38:47.781-05:002017-09-27T10:38:47.781-05:00The following two statements are true:
1) Experts...The following two statements are true:<br /><br />1) Experts know stuff about specific subjects you don't.<br /><br />2) Some experts are idiots you shouldn't listen to about anything.<br /><br />It is not always immediately obvious which is which.<br /><br />I don't think anyone disagrees.John Nowakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14289896109284792526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-30585032467786102492017-09-27T10:08:52.840-05:002017-09-27T10:08:52.840-05:00tim in vermont:I can't figure out why people w...tim in vermont:<i>I can't figure out why people whose main position is that experts know best and we should listen to them even get involved in discussions on blogs.</i><br /><br />That's why you've never been to a medical doctor in your entire adult life, right?<br /><br />"Listen" does not mean blindly obey the last thing that a pet media expert was reported to have said on this or that. The "people whose main position is that experts know best" have been making very qualified and reasonable points, which you have had to ignore and distort into a straw man.<br /><br />I would like to see some evidence that you actually live according to the principle that experts do not know better than non-experts and that it is not worth listening to them. You must not be seeing medical doctors when you are sick. You must not be willing to hire an electrician or a plumber or an auto mechanic or a lawyer or an accountant.Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18188485747371986575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-13995676375633591532017-09-27T10:04:52.162-05:002017-09-27T10:04:52.162-05:00Bad example. I don't believe arsenic is a pois...Bad example. I don't believe arsenic is a poison<br /><br /><br />Arsenic is a medicine. The dose makes the poison.Bad Lieutenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18091901464339059169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-41233704619658233852017-09-27T09:48:03.729-05:002017-09-27T09:48:03.729-05:00Still, I'll say that the tropical Atlantic sou...<i>Still, I'll say that the tropical Atlantic south of 20 N -- where, for example, Irma formed -- shows SSTs that are above norma</i><br /><br />Based on what? There are flecks of cooler than normal water in an area of warmer than normal water. Common sense averages this out to very slightly warmer than the exact baseline for the anomaly. Since the map doesn't show "normal" it just shows a kind of binary warmer or cooler than "average" as arbitrarily defined, Judith Curry's point still stands that the water was not especially warm and that blaming it's intensity on a very slight squiggle above average on a line that squiggles a lot is a real stretch. <br /><br />I am not going to go down rabbit holes knocking down every one of your new improved links when your original link backs up my point quite well and it is the one you offered to 'prove' I was wrong. <br /><br /><i>where, for example, Irma formed </i><br /><br />Weren't we talking about where it developed into a major hurricane before anyway? Why change the goalposts? This is a fool's errand trying to get you to see your own biases. It's. like talking to a creationist. I get it, Gaia is mad at us!tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-8289465347829573672017-09-27T09:08:36.154-05:002017-09-27T09:08:36.154-05:00The Toothless Revolutionary: Horribly wrong: The s...<b>The Toothless Revolutionary:</b> <i>Horribly wrong: The stakes of inaction were high, but we decided not to act just because.<br /><br />Not-so-horribly wrong: The stakes of inaction were high, but we acted anyway and it turned that we were just over-prepared for more than we needed to be.</i><br /><br />Also horribly wrong: The stakes of inaction were high, so we acted, and we made things even worse than they would've been if we hadn't acted.<br /><br />"We <b>have</b> to do <b>something</b>" is bad policy. "We <b>should</b> do <b>this thing</b>" is good policy - but only if there's some evidence that doing "this thing" is <b>actually better</b> than doing nothing.SeanFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09697328067457248454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-41490619060095849992017-09-27T07:35:42.358-05:002017-09-27T07:35:42.358-05:00Somebody once said that any scientist who is worth...<i>Somebody once said that any scientist who is worth a hoot should be able to explain his or her work to an 11-year-old child.<br /><br /></i>I've heard it stated as a Congressman, not an 11-yo child, as the child is usually smarter.<br /><br /><i>you should look at your own anomaly map</i><br /><br />I actually did. Before I linked to it. I agree that the color scale is silly. A zero line usually isn't included for visual clarity, because it moves all over the place. I would prefer seeing only areas that are, say, more than a 1/2 sigma above normal. Still, I'll say that the tropical Atlantic south of 20 N -- where, for example, Irma formed -- shows SSTs that are above normal, even with OSPO's dreadful color scale. <a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" rel="nofollow">Here's</a> another analysis from the Tropical Tidbits page. (Look what Maria has done!!)<br /><br />If we're talking about Irma, Irma did form in a region of very low shear. But SSTs were warm (You can read all the NHC Forecast Discussions <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA.shtml?" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Note that Irma early in her evolution was <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al11/al112017.discus.005.shtml?" rel="nofollow">forecast to move over slightly cooler temperatures</a> -- but that didn't happen. (Cooler, but above normal).MadisonManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01212179466758420208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-24722124785394721452017-09-27T07:23:32.993-05:002017-09-27T07:23:32.993-05:00The funniest part is when a toady to experts, who ...The funniest part is when a toady to experts, who is even against examining the premises from which experts reason, labels himself a "Revolutionary."tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-36080627123436925972017-09-27T07:21:22.376-05:002017-09-27T07:21:22.376-05:00I can't figure out why people whose main posit...I can't figure out why people whose main position is that experts know best and we should listen to them even get involved in discussions on blogs. What is the point? They can learn everything they think by reading the New York Times. <br /><br />Experts say Hillary is not a. corrupt war-monger! Experts say that Al Gore's carbon footprint doesn't matter, but yours does! Experts say that Obama taking foreign money was good! Experts say that Hillary taking money from the Russians no big deal! Experts say that the Russians installed Trump by the simple expedient of spending 00.00015% as much money! Experts say that the planet is wrong and the models are correct! It goes on an on and on!<br /><br />Nobody has any need to apply their own critical thinking skills to the pronouncements of experts in a democracy! After all, "Experts" thought that WWI was a good idea! Why would a voting member of a democracy question experts? Why vote at all? Just let "experts" pick our leaders for us!tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-9607880102414024912017-09-27T06:00:02.087-05:002017-09-27T06:00:02.087-05:00Recently a bunch of experts polluted a river in Co...Recently a bunch of experts polluted a river in Colorado with all kind of nasty mining chemicals including cyanide. Thereby rendering the drinking water for the people downstream undrinkable.<br />But they were experts.<br />So it's OK.Rustyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00938263272237104128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-48206260273149910682017-09-27T04:25:10.071-05:002017-09-27T04:25:10.071-05:00Whatever happened to simply moving the goalposts?Whatever happened to simply moving the goalposts?stlcdrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07407669183827851656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-37433036846437391852017-09-27T00:43:47.216-05:002017-09-27T00:43:47.216-05:00Bad example. I don't believe arsenic is a pois...<i>Bad example. I don't believe arsenic is a poison because experts say so - I believe it because there are any number of known instances in which people who consumed arsenic (wittingly or unwittingly) promptly died, and all with much the same symptoms.</i><br /><br />And how do you know that? Which expert told you that? Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Togetherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02059991118123693141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-10492881411654396362017-09-26T22:12:33.135-05:002017-09-26T22:12:33.135-05:00"The Toothless Revolutionary said...
"H..."The Toothless Revolutionary said...<br /><br />"Hey - maybe the experts are wrong to count arsenic as a poison. Drink up!"<br /><br />Bad example. I don't believe arsenic is a poison because experts say so - I believe it because there are any number of known instances in which people who consumed arsenic (wittingly or unwittingly) promptly died, and all with much the same symptoms.<br /><br />If I want to assess an expert's claims, I prefer to at least try to understand the underlying reasoning and data. Somebody once said that any scientist who is worth a hoot should be able to explain his or her work to an 11-year-old child. (I tried to find the quote by Googling, but I can't seem to. Oh, well, I'll just attribute it to Feynman.)<br /><br />This takes me back to the lawyer-commentators who have posted above about expert witnesses, because that's what competing experts do at trial. They also try to point out the flaws in the other expert's reasoning. (In the example given above of the two valuation experts, the adversary system failed a little, because both experts' reasoning had the same flaw, and neither wanted to point it out.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-66561987749009091742017-09-26T22:11:54.201-05:002017-09-26T22:11:54.201-05:00Tough crowd. That is why I appreciate the blog and...Tough crowd. That is why I appreciate the blog and comments. I work for the Forest service. Their reliance on experts over the course of their existence in managing forests and wild fires leaves a depressing legacy of failure. Do I rely on experts? Of course. But the more complex an issue or system is, the more sceptical I am of their total knowledge and understanding. There is a point where it crosses the line of verifiable fact to proven theory to theory to opion, conjecture and hope. My wife went is being treated for cancer-we see all of the above in her care. Her surgeon is great, her follow on treatment is wonderful and all of her doctors and nurses are careful to tell us just where on that spectrum whatever procedure she is going to have falls. We appreciate the honesty. JMLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14459452642637722342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-91077217875736109022017-09-26T21:57:53.320-05:002017-09-26T21:57:53.320-05:00If you (you know who you are) want to have a sensi...If you (you know who you are) want to have a sensible discussion about "science" you need to talk about specifics, not vague generalities. Yes, the Earth is getting warmer and it has been getting warmer since around the second quarter of the 19th Century. It would be getting warmer even if the steam engine and the internal combustion engine had never been invented, because we have come out of the "little ice age". Yes, the Earth is getting more warmer (sic) than it otherwise would have, because we DID invent the steam engine and the internal combustion engine. How much warmer? That's question #1. So far, the "experts'" projections of how much warmer the Earth has gotten have proved to be much, much too high. If you think that in the future the reality will catch up with the projections, what's your evidence? Or is this a matter of faith, faith in the "experts", in "science"? <br /><br />Question #2 is, What should we do about it? If you're really serious about the dangers of "greenhouse gasses", don't you have to call for expanded nuclear power to replace coal? Sure, wind and solar are great, but they can't replace all or even most power generated by fossil fuels; only nuclear can do that (and that only for fixed site generation).<br /><br />Question #3 is, How much will it cost to prevent how many degrees of increased temperature? And how much would it cost instead to adapt to a warmer world? Until you are prepared to answer these questions, maundering on about "global warming" is a waste of breath and electrons. And it doesn't prove that you're as smart as you claim to be.The Godfatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10575359417766667457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-40552006785077496672017-09-26T21:19:24.161-05:002017-09-26T21:19:24.161-05:00JML said... For years and years experts declared t...<i>JML said... For years and years experts declared the Earth flat and anyone who said otherwise was a heretic. Now people who question the experts are called flat-earthers. I suppose they miss the irony.</i><br /><br />Oh, it is better than that. As I understand it, in the late 19th century "experts" invented the idea that everyone believed in a flat earth in the Middle Ages. It was meant to be a weapon against people who did not fall into line with their views. It is a classic and extremely successful example of "fake news." Wikipedia has a whole article on it:<br /><br /><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_the_flat_Earth" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_the_flat_Earth</a>Static Pinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17083787604745437979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-10018054054744892172017-09-26T21:01:05.599-05:002017-09-26T21:01:05.599-05:00BTW, Dr Judith Curry, PhD, late of Georgia Tech, h...BTW, Dr Judith Curry, PhD, late of Georgia Tech, hurricane expert, now in her own weather forecasting company, came to the same conclusion I did (before me of course), so maybe you can explain why she is wrong, if you don't want to explain why I am wrong.tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-25679127679008189242017-09-26T20:57:42.664-05:002017-09-26T20:57:42.664-05:00I don't think it is an accident, BTW, that the...I don't think it is an accident, BTW, that there is no color for within a half a degree of average, say "green". It makes the maps scarier.tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-25635909571820770522017-09-26T20:55:20.275-05:002017-09-26T20:55:20.275-05:00MadisonMan, you should look at your own anomaly ma...MadisonMan, you should look at your own anomaly map. There is no color for "average" there is only warmer and cooler than average. In the Atlantic Basin, in the area in question, there are tiny flecks of "very slightly cooler than average" surrounded by areas of "very slightly warmer than average" So forgive me if I come to the conclusion that temps at the time of the development of Irma in the area of the development of Irma, per your own link, were approximately "average."<br /><br />You, of course, are free to explain why I am wrong, and why global warming impacted this hurricane mysteriously though some other mechanism than sea surface temps. I think that David Burge stated your position best: "Top scientists warn that the Sea Gods are angry!" Who else but God could impact a storm so untraceably?<br /><br />But I know I am arguing what is religion for you, even if you don't know it. I know that you worship your precious priesthood, but seriously, where is the warming?tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.com