The first picture looks out over the lake at 8:03, 33 minutes after sunrise. The second picture — which has the lake in the background (you can see if you look closely) — was taken at 8:11. The sunrise time was 7:36 [NO: It was 7:24]. We were out there in time for it, and I have a photo, but the view was somewhat duller. Do these details matter? They matter a bit to me, 7+ years into something I call The Sunrise Project. What are the rules, if any?
पोस्ट्स
११३ टिप्पण्या:
spooky- and that golf ball teed up on the horizon…what does it mean? I. Don’t. Know…
After 7+ years, there isn't anyone more qualified to set the rules.
Being a native Pittsburgher I despise all things Philadelphia, the latest being their Commie DA Larry Krastner. So it warms my heart to see that Philadelphia has relinquished the title of City of Brotherly Love to Minneapolis.
…well played humperdink…
The rules are as fluid as the lake at sunrise.
Photo #1 was worth waiting for.
The Onion has some thoughts on Mary Pelttola
The Onion! Where have you been?
RIP Sir Patrick Stewart. Finally reunited with the Atreides Pug! CC, JSM
it's all about the coolness, Park
photo #1 is super cool
photo #2 remains me of the 23 days I spent in Outward Bound
now I want to shower
Number one is very halloweenie. A night on witch mountain resolving into human safety from hidden evils always enforced with the rising sun. Here comes the sun dutum dutum. Here comes the sun. It’s alright. But the house of the rising sun is not the same.
The Brewers made a surprise entrance at the Packers game during a first half time-out. Had the trophy, at least one did a Lambeau Leap.
I like the cloud shades.
Why is Trump cancelling all his remaining rallies except for the Daytona Beach rally? He couldn’t be blamed if he is just tired. He got quite upset with a Reuters reporter who asked about his health. Trump needs a rest, a nice long rest.
“On Thursday, October 29, 2026, President Donald Trump lashed out at Reuters White House correspondent Jacob Bogage on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, launching into a personal, appearance-focused tirade after the journalist questioned him about his health and recent changes to his campaign schedule.
The On-Tarmac Clash…
When Bogage followed up by asking if the cancellation had anything to do with the 80-year-old president being "sick of traveling" or experiencing travel fatigue, Trump reacted sharply:
• The Rebuttal: Trump immediately dismissed the premise, responding, "Oh, you're sick to ask that question. You are sick." After asking what outlet Bogage was with and learning he represented Reuters, Trump called the agency "terrible" and labeled Bogage a "sick guy."
Trump gestured to the surrounding press, saying, "Can you imagine—look at this dope, look at this guy, he's way out of shape... Look at how badly—he comes to me, 'Sir, you're not going to go to Kansas.'"
• The Final Jabs: Before abruptly walking away and ending the press availability, Trump told the reporter, "You've been following me for two weeks. I feel perfect. You are disgusting. Put yourself in shape. You look like hell."“
Touchy, touchy, did the reporter hit a nerve, or the truth?
9:05PM quotes from Google AI
Fox News : "Bari Weiss faced 'significant resistance' from CBS News staffers about Alaska ballot scandal, insiders say"
'It used to happen all the time.' Commentary I heard on the radio.
You get into bed with Hamas and then you're terrified. This woman, the next mayor of Berlin doesn't want to name names because she's afraid her "allies" will harm her family.
What does Inga know? The true mind of Trump. In all its aspects.
The one she's scared to name is Ibrahim Ibrahim.
In the past, Ibrahim Ibrahim has described Yahya Sinwar, the former head of Hamas in Gaza, widely regarded as the mastermind behind the deadly terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, as a "martyr" and a "hero."
So, a big fan of rape, murder, and kidnapping. I wouldn't want to hang out with him, either.
“What does Inga know? The true mind of Trump. In all its aspects.”
It’s merely conjecture, I believe it’s part of free speech.
Why yes, there are always rules. I imagine a great deal of discipline and structure go into the Sunrise project. You have made it seem routine, but it is only because you are a trained eye and show up every day. Then I would imagine there must be restraint, in both what the eye settles on and which images are retained. Rules are what promote human flourishing.
The left/MSM keep suggesting Trump is not well. They keep being wrong, but eventually they'll be right (Trump is not immortal) and they'll say "We told you so."
It reminds me of how when Reagan was diagnosed with Alzheimer's nearly six years after leaving office they would say "We told you he wasn't all there."
Video: In Ireland, Bill Murray is confused with Bill Cosby
That first article was a little muddled. This article is better
Elif Eralp, a member of the Berlin House of Representatives with the far-left party "Die Linke," admits that she is very afraid of pro-Palestinian extremists with ties to Hamas. Eralp’s admission was revealed in an internal document that was accidentally sent to journalists at the German newspaper "Der Spiegel," with whom she had conducted an interview.
During the interview, Eralp was asked about antisemitic statements within her party and the connection of some of its members to extremist pro-Palestinian activists. Eralp said she was not aware of the extent of the problem, but she does know that some party members are acting on behalf of Palestinians.
The journalists asked her if she was referring to the extremist pro-Palestinian activist Ibrahim Ibrahim, and she answered yes.
After the interview took place, the transcript was sent to her for approval, but it was mistakenly returned to the newspaper with internal comments and her correspondence with her spokesperson and the party chair, Kerstin Walter. In the document that was sent, she explained that she is afraid for herself and her family, and said that she cannot even mention their names in public, even though some members of her party cooperate with them.
In the comments document, the question about Ibrahim and her answer were deleted.
Well, we got our regular, threatening letter from the democrats. "We'll know if you don't vote, and we'll tell your neighbors." Disgusting.
"The left/MSM keep suggesting Trump is not well."
They've been doing this for years, there's no choice for them but to keep it up. They can hardly stop now and say "We were wrong", now can they?
Inga wishes for Trump's ill health. As always.
Or worse. As always.
Says it's freedom of speech.
Keep talking. You do yourself no favors.
There's a great series called Babylon Berlin. It takes place in Germany in 1929, the Weimar republic. You really get a sense of how some political parties are really just criminal operations. And you see the rise of the Nazi party. It's really well done.
I know we throw around the "Nazi" word quite a bit. But in the case of Hamas, I think there are a lot of similarities. Not just the hatred of Jews. But also the violence, the rapes and murders, the crimes, the hatred for free speech and liberal society. Hamas is a terrorist group. They're not kidding about it. It's a mistake to invite these criminals into Germany. Certainly a mistake to ally yourself with them.
Freshmen orientation at Princeton.
Behold the insanity of the left:
"Neuroscientist Maryanne Wolf was answering a student’s question when she nearly used the word “trump” as a regular English verb, meaning “override” or “overcome” — but she couldn’t bring herself to finish her sentence. She collapsed into her armchair, citing her inability to say “his name” out loud, and instead spelled it out, letter by letter."
Fucked in the head. Every, last one of them.
“It’s merely conjecture, I believe it’s part of free speech.”
Exactly, lies are free speech too.
But in the Biden Admin the FBI was telling Twitter and Facebook what to censor.
Is it true that Trump is "cancelling all his remaining rallies" except one (Inga, 9:05pm)? What I read on Twitter is that he canceled one rally, for the Republican running for the Senate from Kansas, because they're both confident that the guy's going to win without it, and that he's adding rallies for Congressional candidates in more than one state. In other words, nothing to do with any alleged lack of energy, he's just redirecting his time and effort to where they are most needed.
“Original Mike said...
Well, we got our regular, threatening letter from the democrats. "We'll know if you don't vote, and we'll tell your neighbors."
Yes, in Chicago I already got that email from the “Chicago Ellection Bureau, an arm of the teachers union. They say that your vote will be published to the public and you may be asked to answer for it. Safe and fair elections here huh.
We're told that checking eligibility to vote is an invasion of privacy, but democrats are given our voting records for the purpose of intimidation.
What are the rules, if any?
After querying ai, I'm disqualifying myself. #HonestVibing.
I like the new subhead!
probably my favorite was "fruits and nuts"
Josephbleau:
If you can find enough neighbors who don't want to vote for any of the available candidates, you could arrange to write in the same name, to get them off your back. If 1,000+ wrote in the same name, people would notice, especially if someone dropped a hint to the press. I believe write-ins are generally listed in decreasing order by total votes in official returns.
So what name would be best? How about "C. T. U. Sucks"? Or "Noe Z. Teacher"? Or "Fark Ewall"? No doubt something better could be found. (The traditional "Nunya Bidness" is probably too tame.)
Should Donna Arthur, the Ohio mother who lived with a fugitive accused of abusing her children and is reportedly now living in her car surrounded by cats, ask Vivek Ramaswamy for more money to smear those same children, or negotiate a more permanent payoff?
“The Republican National Committee confirmed in a statement that the Trump rally in Kansas on Saturday and in Iowa on Sunday were canceled.”
NYT
In-person rallies will be done after Daytona Beach tomorrow according to numerous news sources. He supposedly will be doing “tele-rallies”. I can’t blame him, he’s being hammered with hecklers, seems like at every rally. Plus at age 80 it’s not unusual to be fatigued. Some of you folks sound like you expect him to be super human.
“According to campaign officials and Republican strategists, the tele-rallies will feature several distinct changes from his traditional campaign stops:
• Format and Length: Instead of delivering his usual in-person speeches that often exceed 90 minutes, Trump is expected to speak for approximately 10 minutes per event over a telephone broadcast.
• Broader Geographic Reach: White House officials and the RNC stated that the shift allows Trump to maximize his time and reach a wider pool of voters in a high number of tight races simultaneously. He is slated to hold more than 20 tele-rallies before Election Day.
• Targeted States: The virtual events will broadcast to at least 19 states. According to the super PAC MAGA Inc. and the RNC, the target list includes Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.”
Google AI
Should Amy Acton stop showing up drunk or drugged for rallies (link)?
IEE, you are a mouthpiece of cool vibes that no one believes. iZEE: here I am with another cool statement, you can’t prove I am wrong, therefore I am right.
So, just as I said, Trump is redirecting his effort to where it's needed, helping candidates in "at least 19 states" instead of just 2 where he's not really needed. I've certainly read that early voting trends indicate that the Kansas and Iowa races are pretty safe Republican wins.
What a quandry: Amy Acton's mom says she lies, but Amy sez, 'in vino veritas'.
In other news, well it would appear there is some more royal awkwardness (of the in-law collateral variety) headed our way. Sparkle Plenty's elderly dad now under investigation for having inappropriate content on his devices. Lots of it.
Inga, free speech, Milwaukee sucks but Appleton is good, both sre wisc democrats. Why?
A little perspective: Trump has canceled two planned in-person rallies, one in Kansas and one in Iowa.
But the polling makes the explanation that these are races Republicans are comfortably winning rather questionable.
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is trailing Democrat Adam Hamilton by four points in the latest CNN poll (49–45). The race has been downgraded to a Toss-up by the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
In Iowa, the Senate race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek is also essentially a toss-up. Recent polling has the two candidates separated by only a point or two, with some polls putting the Democrat ahead.
Trump’s political operation says he will instead participate in more than 20 telephone rallies covering at least 19 states, allowing him to reach voters in multiple campaigns without traveling to each location.
But the suggestion that he’s canceling appearances because Republican candidates are comfortably ahead doesn’t square with the polling.
No it does not correspond to the poling. Remember the Iowa Des Moines register that Kamella was going to win Iowa by 4 points? And when the election happened the pollster resigned?
To say the pols are an absolute scientific measurement is to be a fool. There is no history to support confidence.
Again, IEE knows all, sees all, understands nothing, and draws flawed conclusions.
Let’s wait until the vote. Perhaps the house and senate will be veto proof and we can become the new Brazil.
"To say the pols are an absolute scientific measurement is to be a fool."
Or a tool.
"Let’s wait until the vote."
That's not what he's paid for.
Fair enough. Let’s dispense with the polls and wait for the votes. But if Democrats win Texas, Kansas or Iowa, I trust we’ll agree it was a rather good night for them.
“In-person rallies will be done after Daytona Beach tomorrow according to numerous news sources. He supposedly will be doing “tele-rallies”. I can’t blame him, he’s being hammered with hecklers . . . “
Gee, I wonder if those hecklers are purposely sending him a message to fear for his safety. He has survived 3 attempts. I worry for his safety every time I see him speaking in front of a large audience. A pity Democrats don’t come out and say they disavow all violence. They have crazies on their side and they should do everything they can to dissuade any and all of them.
Vote Republican in the midterms.
“ But if Democrats win Texas, Kansas or Iowa, I trust we’ll agree it was a rather good night for them.”
It will be a good night for the Democrats and a bad night for America.
If you want your borders, you can keep your borders.
Vote Republican in the midterms.
Sleepy Don will not be campaigning from his basement ,how the worm turns huh! My right wing buddy says its a master plan,I told him make sure he's got enough $ to pay for the mid term party we are having and not letting him off the hook like many times before. At 83 his delusion is almost as bad as the orange man :)Fortunately its only wings, pizza and sparkling water.I'll make sure he dont blow a gasket at his age but wagering has consequences!!
oh wait ,he is going to do the BRANDON METHOD, he say the results and will try anything even campaigning from his basement ,I heard there all making posters and flags and maybe wearing tin foil hats while they teletubby dementia on the old man is causing concern and saving him from tiny uninterested crowds is most import, I watched Ken Paxton and he had at least 15 people at his evening...
There are several people on Twitter doing careful analyses of the early returns by party, and they report that the youth vote is extremely low, that blacks are not turning out in Texas - no desire to vote for the weenie Talarico instead of his black primary opponent Jasmine Crockett - and that the polls are obviously fixed. The only state where a blue tsunami seems at all likely is Virginia, with all the laid-off, pissed-off, federal bureaucrats. We shall soon see.
Dr. Weevil, I hope that is right! Do you have a link?
Saint Croix:
I'll see if I can find you some tomorrow.
Yesterday, I think it was, Twitter had multiple posts with video of a massive fistfight in the Armenian parliament. Today, someone posted about what supposedly caused it (link):
"Meanwhile in Armenia:
"- The opposition proposes creating a 'Ministry of Unsatisfied Women' to improve birth rates.
"- The government spokesperson asks them if their mothers are going to be in it.
"The rest is history and an ode to post-Soviet parliamentarism.
"Enjoy."
Is this true? I don't know, but I hope so.
Your link at 10:32 is kind of amazing. Drunker than Kamala. I hope she's not driving. Maybe that's why politicians have chauffeurs now, to avoid the Ted Kennedy oops murder.
I have a soft spot for drunk and happy girls. But I'm not voting for you! Sober up.
Saint Croix:
I should have gone to bed already, but here's one place to start: link.
Is this true? I don't know, but I hope so.
It's too good to check, right?
And I checked, anyway.
And it's true!
It's interesting how some people think we're stupid enough to believe the constant updates about the President's health means they simply want him to step away and relax.
A long rest, as it were.
Here's one more, or rather two, since it's a reply tweet: link.
awesome link, Doc, get some sleep
I was wondering why Ted Cruz was attacking the Christian preacher in Kansas and not the Christian preacher in Texas. That's why.
Cancelling ad buys would be a big tell. He's literally given up? So weird that the media is telling us he has a big lead, when he's actually stopped spending money.
The media polls are so bad. I think they're having real troubles finding representative samples. Or, they're just blatantly lying.
We will soon see. Don't trust the media.
I would love a link for Michigan!
Chris Cuomo sounds the alarm:
https://x.com/dominguezh31015/status/2115839019628085293/video/1?s=46
According to E Data Guy, the early vote totals are neck and neck in Michigan.
To me, those are way more relevant and interesting than these phantom polls by sketchy liberal journalists. Why wouldn't news organizations report on early voting by party? I don't get it.
Difference between the left and conservatives
https://x.com/the_jefferymead/status/2115852862337008100/video/1?s=46
Saint Croix, you might be interested in what Chris Cuomo says about Detroit in the link above
The truth about socialism:
https://x.com/still_hustling/status/2115632658436735404/video/1?s=46
Lefty turns right
https://x.com/nowpammsy/status/2115659198985888188/video/1?s=46
That's an interesting clip Eva. I would love it if black people in Texas and Michigan decided to go rogue Republican. That would be amazing. Even if they just stay home, that would doom Talarico and El-Sayed, respectively.
In both Democrat primaries, black voters went for the primary opponent in a big way. The NYT goes after Trump for dividing people racially. Which woke people do as a matter of course!
Trump calling Schumer a Palestinian is kind of hilarious. Identity politics is a bitch, amirite?
Anyway, Crockett refuses to campaign with Talarico. Without black support, his candidacy is probably doomed.
In Michigan, black voters supported Haley Stevens, not El-Sayed. She's trying to bring them over to vote for "Abdul." But her future husband is not on board. "Jews are to blame for the price of bananas," he says, referring to the Young Turks ad. That ad was produced by the uncle of the radio shit Hasan Piker, who said that the USA deserved 9/11.
An appeal to anti-Semites is an unusual campaign strategy. What would be fun, and cool, is if this fucked up DSA election were to drive sizable numbers of black people and Jewish voters into the Republican ranks. Media heads would explode.
I hesitate to ask, DINKY DAU at 11:28, but who is Sleepy Don?
Where is the video proof of Obama going to the Cheescake Factory since he is now lying, and telling his adoring press, that the Cheesecake factory was HIS JAM??? The lies pour from his mouth so easy, and the Ingas of the world bow down. IF he ever set foot in one with his daughters like he is now claiming, there would be ALL kinds of proof since there are and have been cell phones and people would have shown the Obamas doing normal things, which they never did.
He is and will remain the biggest joke ever played on America.
https://x.com/theblaze/status/2115612376753942729?a=2U5V_yB3369RWzQZA-M&s=20
Schumer should campaign with Talarico in Texas, and give him some tips on how to BBQ.
It would be kind of hilarious if Schumer tried that, actually, and one of his damn raw burgers put the vegetarian in an ICU for a week. BBQ is not for pussies, Schumer! You Palestinian.
Where is the video proof of Obama going to the Cheescake Factory since he is now lying, and telling his adoring press, that the Cheesecake factory was HIS JAM?
Link here.
That's funny that he has to "defend the joke." Oops!
mocking somebody with "cheesecake" is fine
but mocking "The Cheesecake Factory," which is an actual business worth $5 billion, is something an anti-capitalist might do.
"Cheesecake is my jam" is something Urkle would say.
And it's not your jam! Arugula is your jam!. You're a skinny, healthy, elitist fucker. Own it!
Question for AOC:
You say that Cornell has a rape culture.
Does Gaza have a rape culture?
Does Hamas have a rape culture?
I have not heard you criticize any Islamic state for a rape culture. And yet, the Hamas atrocities of October 7th are well known.
Are you accusing the men of Palestine of having a rape culture?
Because you're accusing all the men at Princeton, and the Ivy League, of participating in a rape culture. And you're accusing the women at the university of paying $200,000 to get entry into a rape culture.
Do you think the President ought to send in the National Guard to protect all the women from the rape culture in the Ivy League?
Your words say one thing, but your actions say 100% the opposite. You malign the rapists of Cornell, because it's safe to do that, in a feminist paradise. Nobody's going to harm you. Nobody's going to speak out or challenge you. But you are repeating a lie, a vicious lie, a feminist lie. And you are hating on Americans, and all the men who have done nothing to you. Whereas, you have nice things to say about terrorist groups. So my question is, what the fuck?
Imagine being Bari Weiss, and you leave the NYT, and start a really cool newspaper (The Free Press) and then you get hired and put in charge of CBS. Wow!
And then the NYT breaks a story, about Democrat fraud in Alaska. And CBS doesn't want to cover it!
From the comments: "Why is Nick Shirley not on staff yet?"
Score!
I am off to bed.
“‘Cheesecake is my jam’ is something Urkle would say.“
The thing is, I don’t think that was his joke - the stilted way he said it. He paid someone to write that - even AI would know better than to give him that joke.
(I made up a really funny joke - in my opinion - but it was a bit politically incorrect. So I asked Perplexity if I should tell it and Perplexity nixed the idea, saying it could be misunderstood.) Maybe Obama should have ran his speech by his favorite AI.
BTW, here’s a Democrat, a former Obama supporter, now voting Republican:
https://x.com/nowpammsy/status/2115659198985888188/video/1?s=46
How can you NOT laugh at this imbecile?? Why do Progressive women fake accents that they aren't very good at. Is she drunk again??
Natalia Marie Carissimi
@NanLee1124
·
6h
🚨She’s speaking to college students at an HCBU. What’s the purpose for changing her dialect? Kamala Harris: “We too busy watchin what ya doin to listenin what ya sayin."😵 This is absolutely ignorant, insulting, and an embarrassment. But considering it’s Kamala it’s no surprise whatsoever! https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2115919012374925455/video/1
Speaking of Jewish issues and old dudes with tremendous staying power, Dos Equis has new 'Most Interesting Man in the World' commercials. He is still played by Jonathan Goldsmith (yes, a Jewish New Yorker with no Latino heritage). Dude is almost 90! CC, JSM
DINKY DAU 45 line for this thread: bumped strt, weakened, no factor
…I’ve forgotten most of the drf comments. Failed to menace maybe the best one…Gamely, dwelt: good words but lacking meaning race-wise. Hung: descriptive but tmi…
…lost rider says it all…
Saint Croix at 3:34 am, excellent point!
Could it be the Islam vs the West feud boils down to their respective right-to-rape or not-right-to-rape values?
Outstanding link at 4:21, Eva.
You know, converts are often stronger to a faith than people who are born into it. I think of all the red diaper babies who became raging anti-Communists. Or Ronald Reagan, who signed a law allowing abortions in California, and was astonished and appalled at the millions of dead babies that followed. He became a huge pro-lifer. Abortion doctors who become pro-lifers. Or Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who transitioned from Islamic jihadist to atheist, and then she transitioned again to a Christian. She is, arguably, the sharpest critic of Islamic terror around the world. Absolutely brilliant and fearless. She writes for the Free Press now.
Britain's Rape Gangs and the Failure of Feminism
The Lie About Islam, Europe, and the Dangers We Face.
Who knows, maybe this kid will make a similar journey, and he'll write a book or make a documentary or do something to spread the truth. So I liked this little video! He's not a rabid libertarian (yet). More like a disillusioned moderate. Good for him. When it comes to politics, illusions are dangerous as shit.
thanks Breezy
My sleep was completely whacked last night. Up all night. Not sure why. All that damn red meat Althouse feeds me.
My college chant: Goooooooooooooooooo Dawgs! Sic' em! Woof woof woof
(the woof woof woof is the best part)
My rule is: Let Althouse be Althouse.
I do cherish the sunrise pictures.
The videos mingle sunrise with water - currents, ripples, waves and water's moods - calm, reflecting, ominous. There's reeds, birds, planets.
So, in short, who makes the rules and what are they? I only know there's two people involved.
1:23 - Eva - link is excellent!
Eva - this link is even better!
[start virtual italics]Or Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who transitioned from Islamic jihadist to atheist, and then she transitioned again to a Christian. She is, arguably, the sharpest critic of Islamic terror around the world. Absolutely brilliant and fearless. She writes for the Free Press now.[end virtual italics}
She is fearless. I have admired her for many years.
This reminded me that I once posted about her, back in 2006, so went looking to see if I could find the post. I hadn't looked at it for years. Unfortunately, I used the word "garnered," by the way! LOL. Definitely not my best writing ever, for sure; I dashed it off very late at night. But it was a bit prescient in terms of recognizing her character and fortitude.
Evicting Moral Courage
In my search, I also came upon an archived Memorandum page, in which the post was featured. I had completely forgotten that! But now I remember that at the time, I was a bit gratified, though I wished it hadn't been a dash-off. It did get some discussion at Hot Air, The Corner, apparently, according to the Memorandum page, but I don't specifically remember that.
Anyhoo, memory lane. Where did those two decades go?
Another day, another case of fraud and corruption in government programs. This time in student loans.
“ The multi-district probe has yielded indictments against five defendants, seizure of over $750,000 in cryptocurrency tied to Kenyan networks, and identified more than 830,000 potentially fraudulent FAFSA accounts with estimated losses in the hundreds of millions since 2021.
Remember when Obama moved to federalize this program to “reduce costs and make it more efficient”. I doubt that private banks would be sending money in cryptocurrency to Kenya.
No wonder Soros Family and cult dems are thrilled with Lula win.
X@Sassafrass_84
"Did you know…
2014: the candidate who ran against Lula’s party died.
2018: the candidate who ran against Lula’s party was stabbed and nearly killed.
2022: the candidate who ran against Lula’s party is serving a 27-year sentence for a “coup” that never happened.
2026: Flávio Bolsonaro, the candidate who ran against Lula, is in exile.
What are the odds? Just huge coincidences.
And Lula wants us to believe he won the election fairly?"
Thanks Peachy, and thanks for making the link more accessible.
dr weevil claims: 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘯 𝘛𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘥𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘶𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘴 𝘣𝘺 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘺, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩 𝘷𝘰𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘭𝘰𝘸, 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘭𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘛𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘴 - 𝘯𝘰 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘷𝘰𝘵𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘦 𝘛𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘰 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘰𝘧 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘭𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘑𝘢𝘴𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘊𝘳𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘵 - 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘣𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘭𝘺 𝘧𝘪𝘹𝘦𝘥.
Apparently, the polls are fixed, but the Twitter analysts are trustworthy.
So we’re now supposed to disregard the polling averages of major, established polling organizations in favor of unnamed people on Twitter who have apparently unlocked the secrets of election forecasting by studying early returns.
And Texas? The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project found Talarico leading Paxton 50–47 among likely voters, with particularly strong support among independents. That’s hardly evidence of a state Democrats have already written off.
Texas does not register voters by party affiliation, and official early-voting data does not list or publish party affiliation of the people who have voted. https://www.callthemap.com/early-vote/texas
𝘈𝘴 𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘛𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 3 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘷𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘴, 𝘏𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘤 𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘴. 𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘏𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘥𝘪𝘥 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 2024 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵'𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘶𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦? 𝙔𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙜 𝙫𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙨. https://x.com/tbonier/status/2113944605888819292?a=xCzMzVctD756226XvCU&s=20
Of course, all these polls could be wrong. That’s why they’re called polls, not election results. But declaring them fixed because they contradict what some people on Twitter are seeing is not exactly a sophisticated analytical method.
By all means, let’s wait for Election Day. But perhaps we could wait without pretending that a collection of social-media anecdotes constitutes a superior forecasting model.
Well as Breeders Cup takes off today I am also wagering on who this fella voted for! Finally a pope with some balls and conviction to do what is his God given right to cast his ballot.
Responding to Trump’s public rebuke, Leo told reporters en route to Algeria: “I’m not afraid of the Trump administration or of speaking out loudly about the message of the Gospel, which is what the church works for. ”I will continue to speak out strongly against war, seeking to promote peace, promoting dialogue and multilateralism among states to find solutions to problems, says Leo. Catholics must have a knot in their briefs, boxers and trunks. That's a boy Leo do your thing, you know they say the pope is infallible in certain matters, well there ya go. MAGA'S can't contain themselves and will have the FBI investigate(see which side he pulled handle for) GUESS!
Eva - you are a star!
Russia’s Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Samara is heavily ablaze this morning after an overnight Ukrainian drone raid, with numerous pillars of smoke rising from the refinery complex. https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2116061985326383310?a=YXgib0hUN7qETQnooDs&s=20
Ooooh! The "polling averages of major, established polling organizations"! So convincing. How many times do all the polls have to be way off to convince even stupid people that polls are (at least in today's world) worthless?
Here's a post-mortem on polling in the Israeli election three days ago (link): the first three words are "Israel's polling apocalypse". Are American pollsters any more honest or competent than Israeli pollsters?
As for the other country that just had an election, Brazil, anyone who thinks Lula "won" legitimately will have to admit that the polls were apocalyptically wrong in predicting a Bolsonaro win. And even those who know it was stolen can agree that the polls were probably fixed. One mathematician claims to have proven from analysis of the reported results that Bolsonaro won 60-65% of the legitimate votes, which I think is way more than the polls predicted.
As for Texas not registering by party, stupid IEE doesn't realize there are other ways to calculate partisan turnout. If turnout in the rural counties that voted Trump by 50-point margins is way up, and turnout in the mostly-black districts that vote Democratic by 70-point margin is way down, compared to previous mid-terms at this point in the cycle, that is very strong evidence that Republicans are doing much better than the polls say.
Again, IEE needs to bugger off to Blue Sky. Should I abbreviate this useful and always pertinent phrase to BOTBS? Seems appropriate when replying to a BS BOT.
Here’s the fundamental problem with your argument: you’re treating polling errors as proof of fraud, speculative turnout analysis as proof of partisan collapse, and an extraordinary mathematical claim as evidence of election theft.
That’s not skepticism. It’s simply accepting the evidence you like and dismissing everything else.
There’s a reason I call you the Althouse Piñata.
Saint Crox (6:43am):
Another Muslim who converted to Christianity and is well worth reading is Dan Burmawi, who has a whole organization of similar minds (IDI) and many hard-hitting posts on Twitter (@DanBurmawy). No, I don't know why he spells his name two different ways.
There's nothing "speculative" about turnout analysis. The number of people who vote in a given district on a given day is a matter of public record. Once again, the BS BOT just can't stop lying.
The stops are back on, rich.
Another day another Somali fraudster sentenced for his crimes in Minnesota.
“ Eric Daugherty reports Said Farah’s sentencing to 78 months in federal prison for participating in a scheme to bribe a juror with cash delivered to her home during his Feeding Our Future fraud trial in Minnesota, calling for deportation afterward.”
And even another arrest. We have a twofer here:
Yesterday, @FBIMinneapolis and our partners executed 17 search warrants in a single day to combine into a 26-count indictment, and arrested four of the alleged fraudsters:
Feisal Elmi, Aspen Associates — 11 counts of healthcare fraud, $8 million in intended loss;
Jama Mohamod, American Home Health Care — 6 counts of healthcare fraud, $3.27 million in intended loss;
Faiza Ahmed, Home Sweet Home — 8 counts of healthcare fraud, $10 million in intended fraud;
Habiba Mohamed, Smart Therapy — 1 count of conspiracy to defraud the United States, totaling nearly $20 million in intended fraud and loss."
Looks like more Somalis here. We even have an Elmi
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