We're serving tariff-scrambled data this morning.
Let's read the text:
Economic growth softened in the first half of the year, as tariffs and uncertainty upended business plans and scrambled consumers’ spending decisions.
Your brains are scrambled! There's growth, but it's soft-boiled growth. Yuck!
The disruptions extended to the economic data itself. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. On the surface, that appeared to represent a strong rebound from the first three months of the year, when output contracted at a 0.5 percent rate.
Oh, but we won't be looking at the surface. We'll be delving down beneath the good news. Surely, there's bad news in here somewhere.
But both those figures were skewed — in opposite directions — by big swings in trade and inventories caused by President Trump’s ever-shifting tariff policies. Taken as a whole, the data from the first six months of the year tell a more consistent story of anemic, though positive, economic growth.
Yeah, we have found it. The "more consistent story," the narrative we want to relay.
Many forecasters expect a further deterioration in the months ahead....
Don't worry, pessimists. The bad news you've got your heart set on is coming.
पोस्ट्स
८२ टिप्पण्या:
It's just good to see the NY Times admit that whoever is running the federal government can just throw numbers out there and there's no reality in it. What are you gonna do ... check the numbers?
Just like Biden did with the fake jobs numbers. Soon as Trump got elected, but before he took over, Biden's job numbers got revised down 900,000 in a single quarter.
Now the NY Times, because they are weasel sonsabitches and a bunch of fucking assholes who should have their faces punched in, is never going to point this out during a Democrat fake news conference.
Don’t you have a mixed metaphor tag? The news is skewed, yet it is also consistent. There was growth, but with further deterioration expected.
A year or two ago, I remember reading how Biden had beaten inflation. However, when you looked into the details from BLS, every single category had a significant increase in inflation, except one area. They had changed how the calculate inflation for healthcare spending, and despite that actually going up in the quarter, they showed it lowering because… well they needed this one time correction to match up with the new calculation. Instead of adjusting old numbers to show what happened that quarter, they faked that quarter to give Biden a story of defeating inflation. It was a lie, but like all the other lies by Biden’s Administration, the NYT seemed not to notice.
I'd like my economy scrambled please, with a side of sour grapes and some crow pie.
No mention of the BLS revision that wiped out 800,000 phony "jobs" that Biden's admin claimed to have created, but which never actually existed? Seems lacking in context. A clever editor could have spun that story as a hit job on Trump. I fear the Left is losing what little imagination it had left, having given over their creative side to the sole mission of chanting and sign production during the Trump years.
Sad. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.
So we move from the Biden economy, where the numbers are great - but are then revised downward when you're not looking, to the Trump economy, where the news might be good - but it's not clear, until it's revised upward - when you're not looking.
I'm sitting here listening to Dan Turrentine on Morning Meeting making the exact argument you outlined in the last sentence.
LOL
We have the words. We have the emotions. We can re-frame this Person of Orange (PoO) to meet our preconceived expectations.
I noticed NPR/PBS news is no longer giving me daily accounts of the "Stock Market crashing". Or having pompous windbag "economists" on to tell me Trump's tarriffs were destroying the economy.
Anyway, its funny how - per the MSM - President Biden wasn't responsible for any bad economic news, while Trump is. When we had massive Bidenflation that wasn't Biden's fault that was blahblahbblah. Don't blame Slow Joe - was the message. But now, Trump is to blame for everything.
The experts have been serving up stupidity for decades. Now they are being proven wrong. They got government jobs that required no actual tests of their words or policies. Their assertions were always enough as long as they controlled the government.
Now there is objective proof that they have been wrong for decades.
The average IQ of college graduates has fallen 20 points over the last several decades. The Experts and our Intelligencia just are not that smart anymore. That is why they need government jobs.
If all the people that say Trump are wrong were right they could start a business and prove it.
But they aren't right. They are talentless stupid people and now everyone gets to compare the results of Trump and the results of Obama. Obama is a talentless thug who couldn't run a lemonade stand. That is why he had to try to install a police state and censor his opponents.
"Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 3 percent annual rate"
help me out, people. can y'all point to a "Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation" before?
i sure don't remember that phrase.
i'm assuming, that meant that the GDP was HIGHER than 3%, before they "adjusted" it?
You could never get South Park's permission, but you could easily rewrite "Blame canada" as "Blame Trump" and use it to satirize the MSM.
I started my career in 1973 as a Data Scrambler at National City Bank.
IF the NY Times wants to be taken seriously, it needs to examine and explain to readers how every positive economic report involving Republicans is "unexpected."
Everybody and their mother knows that the NY Times is doing this. The NY Times knows we know they're doing this.
It's because they're assholes and that's why trust in the media is lower than trust in Congressmen. There's a COST to having trust in the media be this astonishingly low. News has less value. Opinions have less value. Endorsements have zero value.
Many anonymous leftie forecasters will have egg on their faces in the months ahead…
"I started my career in 1973 as a Data Scrambler at National City Bank."
I prefer my economic data sunny side up, with a side of soldiers and a rasher of bacon.
First quarter “…when output contracted at a 0.5 percent rate.”
NYT still flogging the anomaly of national income accounting that an anticipatory surge in imports is subtracted from GDP=C+I+G+(X-M), rather than signaling a contraction of “output.”
Strong GDP is not an advertisement for lower rates.
Trade-related distortions in net exports disrupted 2025 growth data again, with Q2 2025 growth rising 3%, overstating the true underlying pace of economic activity.
↓C+I+G+(X-M) No reason↓
2Q GDP JUST OUT: 3%, WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED! "Too Late" MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE. No inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes! ~ Donald Trump
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers at just +1.2% is not indicative of a booming economy at all. The underlying trend is weak and weakening.
Read for yourself. Investment spending is down 3%... the reason for GDP growth going back to Biden-era levels is because imports tanked: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/gdp2q25-adv-chart-02.png
It’s hillarious watching the Internet full of do your own research people never doing any research of any sort, like basic economics.
This is your economy.
This is your economy on tariffs.
Any questions?
RR
JSM
Well 3% is pretty awesome. We should appreciate it. What was the consensus prediction? Contraction. Exactly opposite the reality. Not since 2018 has growth been this high. Hmmm. Who was our economic steward then, I wonder?
Excellent summation by Aggie at 8:10. Spot on. Damned spot on.
Don’t worry pessimists. The bad news you've got your heart set on is coming.
I’m poaching this…
“ i'm assuming, that meant that the GDP was HIGHER than 3%, before they "adjusted" it?”
If they are really economists they would report the current gdp and then adjust all previous measurements to July 2025 dollars. What use is it to have a gdp value that does not reflect what can be purchased in today’s dollars.
“There's growth, but it's soft-boiled growth.”
An economy so bad you can dip your toast in it!
The Oligarchs that are behind the scenes require experts to be stupid fools.
For example the Fed is run by complete idiots who couldn't run a latte shop. They just say stupid shit about how tariffs are worse than taxes. They are paid to be stupid.
The Globalist Oligarchs set up a system that taxed the little people while they paid no taxes and called it "Free Trade" Their multinational corporations used slave labor in other countries to produce cheap goods under no regulations.
Now that the Oligarch multinationals are getting taxed we are supposed to know this is way worse than taxing evil US corporations.
help me out, people. can y'all point to a "Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation" before?
This is called "real GDP" by economists. And no I don't recall them using this awkward formulation before. You are correct to be suspicious.
What you likely caught was them slipping this in hoping people won't realize they were NOT adjusting for inflation under Biden, when inflation was raging. It then helped support the "strong economy" bullshit the Left kept crowing about last year, even though we all knew Biden's economy was crap.
A soft-boiled egg is a flavorful choice for a productive day.
The news bias is actually a tensor.
Josephbleau said...
“ i'm assuming, that meant that the GDP was HIGHER than 3%, before they "adjusted" it?”
If they are really economists they would report the current gdp and then adjust all previous measurements to July 2025 dollars. What use is it to have a gdp value that does not reflect what can be purchased in today’s dollars.
This is posted as a joke right?
There is no more phony and manipulated metric the government uses than the "Core inflation rate."
You could make an argument that unemployment is more fake. That's about it.
Kakistocracy said...
Strong GDP is not an advertisement for lower rates.
In the absence of actual inflation, “strong GDP growth” will have to do as a pretext for higher interest rates, in some sort of Phillips Curve bloodletting ritual.
The left are desperate for America to crash and burn.
that's why they do what they do.
they adore crime and homelessness and drugs and child sex trafficking... and covering for corrupt Hillary and Joe...
kakscheisser…
As seen in a Don Surber substack article this morning:
“We no longer call them retards. We call them experts.”
Credit to Donald Trump for asking the question “What if the conventional wisdom is actually unwise?”
The average IQ of college graduates has fallen 20 points over the last several decades.
I was just reading a piece in Substack making this claim - can't remember whose Substack, sadly. But whoever it was believes that a huge reason for our societal troubles is what s/he called "the overeducation of the midwits" - the fact that college has been dumbed down to accommodate the 100-115 IQ students (rather than the lower-bound 125 s/he said it used to be), and that cohort is not capable of real critical thinking - so "use reason to understand and solve problems" has been replaced by "memorize things and take experts' statements as gospel."
I can see it.
““We no longer call them retards. We call them experts”
Buy the Aggie; sell the Kaki.
3% GDP growth with high interest rates is very good. Low and stable inflation means interest rates should be coming down soon. Consumer spending should increase as rates come down. Personal debt is still a problem. Savings rates need to increase. The final tariff effect is still uncertain. The Fed needs to get on board right now.
Trump is hitting the marks necessary to get the deficit under control. It will take a couple of years to shake out but so far so good. He will need to get a 5-10% reduction in government spending over the next 3 years as well.
The benchmark for me is a sub fourty trillion deficit at the end of his term. That would be a marked improvement from the path we have been on for over 2 decades, and would signal a better economic future.
Couple this with his foreign policy, and instituting societal norms....
I'm optimistic, but Rome wasn't built in a day and there's still a lot of risk inherent in what he is doing. (The biggest risk is the Dems getting back in power imo.)
“We're serving tariff-scrambled data this morning.”
Is that just regular tariff data with liberal tears sprinkled in?
NYC will be underwater by 1999.
It’s funny how this reads like a forecast you’d rather the media ignore — even as it quietly confirms serious cracks forming beneath the surface. I imagine people applauded the Titanic’s pace across the Atlantic, too. How’d that turn out?
pacwest said...
“The benchmark for me is a sub forty trillion deficit at the end of his term.”
I hope you meant a sub forty trillion debt.
The lack of economic deterioration is transitory.
Kak/Richsockpuppet/paidtrollaccount said:
"It’s hillarious watching the Internet full of do your own research people never doing any research of any sort, like basic economics."
That's Rich, coming from the ActBlue paid poster who just copypastas everything from Mother Jones, and Indivisible"s website. O_o
GDP rising as economic activity falls is the definition of stagflation.
Having lived through several economic upturns and downturns, I've learned that most economic reactions lag significantly behind the events that trigger them. In other words, we have yet to see the full economic impact of Trump's policies.
"Don't worry, pessimists. The bad news you've got your heart set on is coming. "
Bad news always comes eventually. And they'll be there to say "See, see, see!"
There were few tarrifs in Q2.... Tariff day was 2 April and he TACO'd very soon after that.... From the BEA:
"The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP"
Meanwhile investment is down massively:
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/gdp2q25-adv-chart-02.png
Fine print is not something MAGA tend to pay attention to. In fact to any print beyond the headline.
Reading kak’s flailing around is humorous but not as exciting watching my retirement fund improve.
Kakistocracy said...
GDP rising as economic activity falls is the definition of stagflation.
I think you meant to say inflation rising as economic activity falls is the definition of stagflation?
Your brain is an egg.
Your brain on tariffs is scrambled (or is it, your brain on Trump?).
[Scramble!" used to be a common cry in war movies. How many times have you heard "scramble" used in adulthood, other than in reference to eggs or other things in a frying pan?]
Less chemicals and private inventory adjustments due to cessation of the Q1 import surge?
The largest contributor to the decrease in investment was private inventory investment, led by decreases in nondurable goods manufacturing (mainly, chemical manufacturing) and in wholesale trade (reflecting widespread decreases in durable goods industries). The estimates of private inventory investment were based primarily on Census Bureau inventory book value data and a BEA adjustment to account for notable increases in imports in the first quarter and decreases in the second quarter.
The disruptions extended to the economic data itself. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. On the surface, that appeared to represent a strong rebound from the first three months of the year, when output contracted at a 0.5 percent rate.
But both those figures were skewed — in opposite directions — by big swings in trade and inventories caused by President Trump’s ever-shifting tariff policies. Taken as a whole, the data from the first six months of the year tell a more consistent story of anemic, though positive, economic growth.
Ok, so let's unwind this bullshit.
1: GDP is GNP - imports. So it's a measure of how much America produces, not of how much America consumes.
IOW, in the 1st quarter, the press focused on GDP, which was down, rather than GNP, which was up (companies front loaded a bunch of imports to get them in before the tariffs hit).
Now that's backfiring on them, because with imports down GDP is up, so they don't want to look at it.
Key things to note: they're giving words, not numbers. What's the growth over the last 6 months? They won't say. How's it compare to last year? They don't say.
What's that tell you? They're lying
A while back, Kaka said he was going to wait until the end of the summer to assess the tariffs and the economy. That lasted a week. The man couldn't shut up if his life depended upon it.
Net exports up, making up for drop in Q1. Net imports down, offsetting the spike in Q1. Yep. Seems like tariff distortion alright.
Removing that noise, what we're left with are personal expenditures — up a tiny bit, about as much as inflation.
Fixed investments — the thing Trump is actually trying to grow — are dead flat. Meanwhile, inflation continues its upward trend that started on 'liberation' day: https://truflation.com/
I'd hold off popping the champagne bottle.
Jamie, probably Boriagato on Substack.
Our Bich, having been wrong so consistently and totally for 2 years is rapidly approaching the event horizon of spinning.
Kak would like you to disremember that Biden's GDP was largely government-driven.
I've learned that most economic reactions lag significantly behind the events that trigger them.
Except when opening the economy back up produced the highest job growth of any presidency ever.
God, what a hack.
For those that didn't take or have forgotten Econ 101, economic growth is measured by percentage change in real GDP. Real GDP is nominal GDP corrected for inflation. Both the real and nominal GDP numbers have been published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for decades. This is not a change in the report, merely a change in how the news media reports on it. The numbers are also SAAR - Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. The non-seasonally adjusted numbers are also in the full report. FYI - SAAR Real GDP grew at 3.0 % in Q2 while Nominal GDP grew at 5.0 % meaning inflation was about 2 %.
Q1 was down because imports spiked - buying ahead to avoid expected tariffs. Had imports been on trend, Q1 would have been between 2.5 and 3.0 %. Q2 is merely a return to trend. For those without TDS, this was totally expected and hence un-news worthy.
"The average IQ of college graduates has fallen 20 points over the last several decades."
If it drops any further they won't be fit for any kind of work other than MSM Business reporter.
Kakistocracy said...
GDP rising as economic activity falls is the definition of stagflation.
Having lived through several economic upturns and downturns, I've learned that most economic reactions lag significantly behind the events that trigger them. In other words, we have yet to see the full economic impact of Trump's policies.
How can you post this stupidity? How can you be so wrong all of the time?
GDP is up while unemployment in Washington DC is exploding.
Only a dumbass would misunderstand what is happening right now.
Time for the multinational oligarchs to pay their fair share of taxes.
A note on business Investment expenditures: It was up in Q1 partly because of inventory builds - pre-buying before the expected price increases. Same reason Imports were up (where did you think the spike in imports went, not into consumer spending). Businesses quit doing that in Q2. Hence inventories fell decreasing business investment. So the investment change was mostly due to the imports change. We will revert back to trend in Q3.
GDP rising as economic activity falls is the definition of stagflation.
Fact check: False.
GDP is a measure of economic activity. Economic activity can’t be falling if GDP is rising.
If prices go up because of higher tariffs, is that inflation?
If nominal GDP goes up because of higher prices due to tariffs, is that economic growth?
Left Bank of the Charles babbles...
If prices go up because of higher tariffs, is that inflation?
Yes, that would be. But they're not
If nominal GDP goes up because of higher prices due to tariffs, is that economic growth?
No, which is why the fact that REAL GDP went up at a 3% annualized rate is so awesome.
It was 5% before adjusting for the awesome 2% inflation (if only the Biden years had just been 2% inflation).
Left Bank of the Charles said...
If prices go up because of higher tariffs, is that inflation?
If nominal GDP goes up because of higher prices due to tariffs, is that economic growth?
No. You are just showing everyone how stupid you are.
Wages are going up. Prices are staying flat.
Look up the difference between Nominal GDP and Real GDP.
If you weren't so stupid you would understand why the economy under Trump is better for average Americans.
Kakistocracy said...
Net exports up, making up for drop in Q1. Net imports down, offsetting the spike in Q1. Yep. Seems like tariff distortion alright.
Removing that noise, what we're left with are personal expenditures — up a tiny bit, about as much as inflation.
Fixed investments — the thing Trump is actually trying to grow — are dead flat. Meanwhile, inflation continues its upward trend that started on 'liberation' day: https://truflation.com/
I'd hold off popping the champagne bottle.
You are as accurate and Jim Kramer.
Just so you understand Jim Kramer is a meme. People buy everything he screams to sell. He is a loud idiot like you.
I wanted to write it out in small words so someone as stupid and wrong as you always are could get it.
Ol Kaki at 3;15--"nflation continued its upward trend which started back in 2021 when Joe Biden was inaugurated. " There fixed it for you. I know you wish to be accurate.
I'd hold off popping the champagne bottle.
We know you will, Kak, as long as Orange Man (or any Repub) is in office. (And it's *cork*, not *bottle*, for pity's sake.)
I'm so old I can remember the Biden days when the inflation was temporary and the economy was doing great- we just weren't seeing it.
even as it quietly confirms serious cracks forming beneath the surface
Maybe you could share with the class just what those 'serious cracks' are.
Lower energy costs? Increased wages? Budget surplus last month? Steady (but decreased) inflation? Steady unemployment rate? Increased domestic manufacturing?
Do tell.
Whenever Democrats delivered poor results, the MSM would slip an "Unexpectedly" in the sub-head. When Republicans deliver good results, there's a "But" in the sub-head.
Powell also said uncertainty remained over the effects of Trump’s tariffs on inflation.
Until the tariff issue settles with the major trading economies, Fed is very much within its remit to manage the fallout from such disruptive policies and manage the threat. So, well done Powell.
He wants to go as Paul Volcker, not as Arthur Burns.
“GDP rising as economic activity falls is the definition of stagflation.”
In the future, dictionaries will cite that statement in the definition of “wrong”.
at a certain point, the Times as well as all the other diviners have to be ignored Powell dropped a 100 bases points despite the rising expenditures in 2024, he has to get a new set of clown shoes,
Remember all the fake and inflated "jobs' numbers under Crook Puppet Biden? They are all government employees.
Kakistocracy said...
Powell also said uncertainty remained over the effects of Trump’s tariffs on inflation.
Until the tariff issue settles with the major trading economies, Fed is very much within its remit to manage the fallout from such disruptive policies and manage the threat. So, well done Powell.
He wants to go as Paul Volcker, not as Arthur Burns.
There is absolutely no justification for what Powell is doing other than he is a Democrat operative.
Inflation and every single possible metric they could use was worse when he dropped rates in September to help Joe and Kamala.
The Fed's primary job right now is to keep working class wages down. They are upset that Trump is making the Oligarchs pay taxes for once and boosting middle class income across the board.
The Fed is going to be the last hurdle that Trump sweeps aside. When rates come down the housing market will open up again and the budget deficit will go way down.
Powell will go down in history as a political animal that hurt the economy because he was doing political party bidding.
A strong rebound the size of an anemic rebound.
Jamie,
Yes it was indeed El Gato Malo writing about overeducating midwits:
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/overeducating-the-midwits
Maybe you could share with the class just what those 'serious cracks' are.
They are pointing to the temporary drop in imports Q2 that followed a surge in Q1 and pretending it is a trend indicating future supply chain issues. Which ignores the entire reason for the pause in imports, the game of chicken countries feigned before complete capitulation to Trump demands. Of course they are wrong. The gates are open and trade will steadily increase until the next democrat caused economic crisis in the distant future.
Bank on it.
Since tariffs do not concern the money supply they are not inflationary.
The threat of tariffs are a great negotiating tool. Which is what Trump meant them to be.
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