Althouse: This morning, the betting odds converged.

২ অক্টোবর, ২০২৪

This morning, the betting odds converged.

Link.

৩৭টি মন্তব্য:

Virgil Hilts বলেছেন...: Wait until they hear about masculinity-reshaping, bitch-slapping drunk Emhoff. Top story on X, and NY Post is only major paper that will even cover it. In my law firm, not sure any male partner could survive doing something like that.; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:২৭ AM
RideSpaceMountain বলেছেন...: Amazing considering how the media continues to act as if Trump is the incumbent and Harris the underdog. If people took their blinders off it wouldn't even be close.; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৩১ AM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent বলেছেন...: And it's October 2nd. Short of a third assassination attempt, the Donk's quiver is empty.; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৩৪ AM
lonejustice বলেছেন...: Surprise surprise!!! Most Democrats thought Walz won the debate, while most Republicans thought Vance won the debate. Who would have ever imagined that happening???

The POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll, conducted among 902 adults with a weighted sample of 525 likely voters, found that 72% of Democrats thought Walz won the debate while only five percent thought Vance won.

On the contrary, 71% of Republicans thought Vance won the debate while four percent think Walz won.; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৩৬ AM
Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...: IT will keep on moving towards Trump

Because every day that goes by with Harris refusing to say what she'll do, is another day when more voters stop giving her the change to convince them she's good; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৩৯ AM
Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...: 1: I note no link to the poll data
2: What I saw last night was a claim that the Frank Luntz undecided poll watcher focus group went 12-2 for Vance

But I note you don't list what the "undecideds" thought. Guess that group destroys your priors; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৪০ AM
mccullough বলেছেন...: Time to swap out Kamala; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৪১ AM
rehajm বলেছেন...: I mentioned yesterday I'm wondering how long before Clooney takes out a full page ad to demand to have Joe back..; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৪৯ AM
tim maguire বলেছেন...: It's a testament to how weak the Democrats are right now, talent-wise, that they nominated Harris at all. Her only advantage over Biden was that she is enough of a blank slate that the media could paint her as a strong leader and pretend to be excited by her candidacy. They did, it helped a bit for a while, but they couldn't keep up the ruse for even 2 months.

How bad off does a political party have to be that the short con is their best option?; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৫৪ AM
rehajm বলেছেন...: They plan on stealing it again, tim so dun' matter...; ২/১০/২৪, ১১:৫৮ AM
Yancey Ward বলেছেন...: The DNC's big donors need to start buying some more contracts to get those betting odds back up.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:০৬ PM
Yancey Ward বলেছেন...: There is a lot of cope going on this morning.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:০৭ PM
tim maguire বলেছেন...: I'm sure they'll steal every vote they can, but this time Lara Trump is co-chair of the RNC and all that money they used to spend on consultants and travel and booze is now being spent on lawyers and poll watchers. Massive fraud will be harder for the Dems to get away with this time.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:০৯ PM
Zavier Onasses বলেছেন...: So which is the October Surprise: Iran tosses 180 rocket indiscriminately at Israel, or Walz crashes on debate?; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:২১ PM
Mr Wibble বলেছেন...: "How bad off does a political party have to be that the short con is their best option?"

She wasn't. She's only the nominee because they had no choice after Biden endorsed her. Guarantee you that the original plan was to hold an "accelerated primary" and put in someone like Newsome or Whitmer.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:২৬ PM
Quayle বলেছেন...: When the wind blows, the Potemkin façade can blow down for a time.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:৩১ PM
Whiskeybum বলেছেন...: Don’t forget that gamblers are factoring in vote fraud into this result.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:৩২ PM
H বলেছেন...: It is easy, but wrong, to interpret this as one would interpret a change in a poll average. A change from Harris being ahead by 2 points to Harris and Trump even in a poll average would be a change that is big enough to notice. But the change in probability of Harris win from (say) 52 to 50 is almost no change at all.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:৩৫ PM
Narayanan বলেছেন...: could better bettor be factoring in cheat?; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:৩৯ PM
Kevin বলেছেন...: We were warned not to cross the streams!; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:৪৪ PM
Shouting Thomas বলেছেন...: The election has been rigged. The polls are rigged. This election is a farce. Worse even than the 2020 election, which was brazenly and openly rigged.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:৪৮ PM
chuck বলেছেন...: I've never hit a women, or knocked up a nanny and then caused her to miscarry. I'm just too old to adopt the new masculinity. Such is life.; ২/১০/২৪, ১২:৫৬ PM
Yancey Ward বলেছেন...: Indeed.; ২/১০/২৪, ১:০৪ PM
rehajm বলেছেন...: slick speculator suspecting some sham...; ২/১০/২৪, ১:০৭ PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi বলেছেন...: Kommie-la and Wally sinking under their combined intellectual weight of nothingness; ২/১০/২৪, ১:৫২ PM
loudogblog বলেছেন...: If you look at the polling data from 2016 and 2020, Hillary was leading by about 4% and Biden was leading by about 8% right before the elections. That means that Harris probably needs to be leading by about 6% to win. Right now she and Trump are, effectively, tied. Harris will not win unless she surges in the polls and with all the early voting, she doesn't have much time to turn this around.; ২/১০/২৪, ১:৫৮ PM
Enigma বলেছেন...: Betting odds this far out are likely...manipulated...by a few big players and party propagandists. Bookies stay in business by having 50% of the money on each side of every bet. It's likely easy to shift the nominal odds in this niche market. Drop $100K, $1M quickly and it looks like you've got momentum in one direction. The odds will settle on the best (internal) polling numbers in the last week before the election.

Despite all that, I think Trump is indeed moving upward. State-by-state polls have been moving in his favor.; ২/১০/২৪, ৩:০৬ PM
Christopher B বলেছেন...: I thought that for awhile but what's happened since then makes me think that whole mini-primary/open convention plan was a feint. If the plan had been to move up Newsom or Whitmer Biden would have been pushed out sooner and a real primary would have been engineered. I think the Democrat PTB were truly blindsided by how bad Biden was, and had no option other than Harris at the point Biden was defenestrated. The delay was either needed for extra persuasion, or to work around Biden (Jill, not Joe).; ২/১০/২৪, ৩:১৪ PM
Christopher B বলেছেন...: এই মন্তব্যটি লেখক দ্বারা সরানো হয়েছে।; ২/১০/২৪, ৩:১৪ PM
Levi Starks বলেছেন...: Ooooh,
I’m on the edge of my seat.; ২/১০/২৪, ৩:৩২ PM
jpg বলেছেন...: Could a female partner? Or is that different?; ২/১০/২৪, ৩:৩৬ PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...: I'm sick of betting in all forms, oddsmakers, points-givers. Started watching a pregame show last weekend and instead of football it was all "what are the hot bets to place on today's NFL games." WTF.; ২/১০/২৪, ৩:৪০ PM
Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...: https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/10/02/frank-luntz-focus-group-and-snap-polls-n2180042

The WaPo focus group had 14-8 for Vance with swing state voters.

As for Luntz: Final focus group vote tonight after the #VPDebate: 12-2 in favor of JD Vance
(That is a big deal since only 5 of them were leaning toward Trump-Vance when the debate began); ২/১০/২৪, ৪:০৯ PM
Rocco বলেছেন...: Wow, so Trump now has a 50-50 chance of beating The Swamp's fraud machine.; ২/১০/২৪, ৫:২৪ PM
Josephbleau বলেছেন...: Since the election will be decided by the ballots counted in 6 to 9 counties located in various swing states,, I am not too impressed by any of this.

But Master, certainly, if the rural red areas have a high turnout that will make the red team win.

Oh Grasshopper, The 6 to 9 counties always wait until the others have submitted their counts before they divulge their own results.; ২/১০/২৪, ৬:০৮ PM
Josephbleau বলেছেন...: As many know and say, Republicans can win only if they exceed the capacity to create artificial ballots. 2016 was lost because of overconfidence. The required number of artificial ballots were not to hand, so there was no way to win.

Every third grade kid knows that the cheater is the one that wants an "honor" system.; ২/১০/২৪, ৬:২০ PM
Mason G বলেছেন...: "The 6 to 9 counties always wait until the others have submitted their counts before they divulge their own results."

At some point, Republicans are going to have to say "Okay- we're done counting and ready to report. After you. What have you got?"; ২/১০/২৪, ৬:৫৬ PM