Althouse: In case you'd like to comment on Trump's Madison Square Garden rally...

October 27, 2024

In case you'd like to comment on Trump's Madison Square Garden rally...

... here's the live feed:

226 comments:

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Ann Althouse said...: How about Polymarket? Some folks like that. Trump is up by 31 points over Harris right now. 63 to 32.; 10/28/24, 5:06 AM
Christopher B said...: It's a bit of a long read but here's Sean Trende's analysis of the 2022-2023 elections Part I and Part II

TL;DR is the results were nowhere near as bad for GOP as most Democrats like to think, and he admits that making claims of large gains based on the fundamentals of the election like Biden's unpopularity ignored the lack of competitive seats to be gained.

Here's Nate Silver on the "GOP polls flood the zone" bullshit

But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. These polls might be more favorable to Republicans than nonpartisan polls, but that isn’t a good way to tell whether they’re moving polling averages. For the flooding-the-zone theory to hold water (pun somewhat intended), polling averages and forecasts would have to just toss these polls in the average without any adjustment. But that isn’t happening. Here at Silver Bulletin, for example, we weight polls based on pollster quality and adjust them based on pollsters’ house effects. And every other high-quality polling average does something similar.

What’s the result? The polling averages say pretty much the same thing, regardless of which polls they choose to include or exclude. Nationally and in the battleground states, the biggest difference in Harris-Trump margin between the Silver Bulletin average and averages from 538, Split Ticket, The New York Times, and VoteHub is 0.5 points. In Pennsylvania — the likeliest tipping point state — our average is Harris +0.6. Split Ticket has the race as Harris +1, 538 has it as Harris +0.7, VoteHub has it as Harris +0.7, and The New York Times has Harris up by less than 1 point.; 10/28/24, 5:07 AM
Christopher B said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/28/24, 5:13 AM
Christopher B said...: Nate Silver on that GOP polls flooding the zone BS.

But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. These polls might be more favorable to Republicans than nonpartisan polls, but that isn’t a good way to tell whether they’re moving polling averages. For the flooding-the-zone theory to hold water (pun somewhat intended), polling averages and forecasts would have to just toss these polls in the average without any adjustment. But that isn’t happening. Here at Silver Bulletin, for example, we weight polls based on pollster quality and adjust them based on pollsters’ house effects. And every other high-quality polling average does something similar.

What’s the result? The polling averages say pretty much the same thing, regardless of which polls they choose to include or exclude. Nationally and in the battleground states, the biggest difference in Harris-Trump margin between the Silver Bulletin average and averages from 538, Split Ticket, The New York Times, and VoteHub is 0.5 points. In Pennsylvania — the likeliest tipping point state — our average is Harris +0.6. Split Ticket has the race as Harris +1, 538 has it as Harris +0.7, VoteHub has it as Harris +0.7, and The New York Times has Harris up by less than 1 point.; 10/28/24, 5:15 AM
Mr. Forward said...: I don't know why Inga is worried. Democrats still have the edge in late voting.; 10/28/24, 5:35 AM
Ralph L said...: Didn't Rose Kennedy have speech problems in old age, or am I thinking of Katherine Hepburn?; 10/28/24, 5:36 AM
Would You Like Fascism With That Hat said...: That's a first. The Trump campaign disassociating itself from remarks too fascist in tone, even for them. It will be interesting to see how it ends up affecting the outcome in states like Pennsylvania who have a sizable Puerto Rican electorate. Which of course, is the real reason for the panicked response.; 10/28/24, 5:48 AM
Would You Like Fascism With That Hat said...: Wow -- the Republican base might actually have second thoughts if any of them knew that Puerto Ricans are American citizens.; 10/28/24, 5:52 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: My favorite take was on X, three photos with the caption "Weirdest nazi rally ever, featuring Jewish, Black and Hindu speakers."; 10/28/24, 5:58 AM
Would You Like Fascism With That Hat said...: In other words, we spent our weekends building the world’s most elaborate coin-flipping machine.; 10/28/24, 6:00 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: He's creating new swing states.; 10/28/24, 6:03 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Now, that's a fact check!; 10/28/24, 6:07 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Don't forget the Democrats had their DNC "Klan-bake" rally and nominating convention there in 1924. They were more open about their racism back then.; 10/28/24, 6:11 AM
Rocco said...: wendybar said...
“THIS is why we point and laugh at Regressives…
JFK had a Nazi rally there in 1962
Jimmy Carter had a Nazi rally there in 1980.”

But, but, but… both parties switched sides!

Although that does not explain why both Jimmy Carter and JFK are still voting Democrat this year.; 10/28/24, 8:38 AM
planetgeo said...: Thwap!; 10/28/24, 8:53 AM
Iman said...: Up the Thorazine NOW!!!!!; 10/28/24, 8:57 AM
Lazarus said...: It's a good bet that if one side is trying to skew the polling averages, the other side is trying to do it too. What are the odds that the chaotic, shambolic Republicans would be doing that, and the well-oiled Democrat machine wouldn't be?; 10/28/24, 9:03 AM
Iman said...: Peak shit in hat!!! Danger, Will Robinson!; 10/28/24, 9:04 AM
Mason G said...: If you vote early, you don't know how many votes you'll be losing by, and need to "find".; 10/28/24, 10:31 AM
Elliott A. said...: Ann- I am glad you have never lost your BS meter; 10/28/24, 10:31 AM
n.n said...: Person of Orange (PoO): Why did the chicken cross the road? To get to the MSG. Flavorful.; 10/28/24, 10:36 AM
PM said...: I missed the hundred-foot painting of George Washington in the background.; 10/28/24, 12:42 PM
Big Mike said...: Almost 2:1??? Wow; 10/28/24, 12:46 PM
Big Mike said...: And Senator Fetterman has it Trump in a walkover.; 10/28/24, 12:49 PM
Rusty said...: In 1934 The American Jewish Congress held a rally at Madison Square Garden. The American ambassador to Germany was called to Goerings office. Goering wanted to know how come the Jews weren't arrested. Goering was disturbed to find that American Jews enjoyed the same rights as everyone else and it would be illegal to arrest them.
Conservatives aren't nazis and we enjoy the same rights as everyone else.; 10/28/24, 1:01 PM
Rusty said...: So. Not voting for Trump, then?
Gadfly. You couldn't be objective if your life depended on it.; 10/28/24, 7:56 PM