২৫ অক্টোবর, ২০২৪

"How brilliant is Donald J. Trump?"

Brilliant enough to call in to a JD Vance town hall and ask "How brilliant is Donald J. Trump?"
And speaking of how women feel about politics, let's hear from Mika Brzezinski:
She's so earnest — or phony-earnest — about wanting women to wake up and start paying attention, but I've been paying attention every day, and I didn't think one thing in her parade of horribles was true.

You know, I said a long time ago that I thought the Democrats should put aside all the Trump-is-evil theatrics and simply engage with him on the substantive merits... if they can. Maybe they know that would be the better strategy but they lack the material to fight on the merits.

ADDED: I'm trying to find old posts of mine where I begged Democrats to fight on the substantive merits, and the first thing that turned up, from December 14, 2023, was "Predicted Electoral College vote: 312 Trump, 226 Biden" ("Here's the Electoral College interactive map, where I generated the numbers used in my post title").

I invite you to look at the Real Clear Politics "No Toss-Ups" Electoral College map right now:


I got it right on the nose! 312 to 226. 

And here's what I wrote last December:
The demonization of Trump has not worked for Democrats. I think Glenn Greenwald put it aptly (reacting to the polls I've displayed above): 
"The more Trump is indicted, the more he rises in the polls. That correlation doesn't prove causation, but what it does prove is that most Americans have so much distrust in the justice system and DOJ that even felony indictments don't undermine Trump's standing with the public."

My advice, not that I think Democrats would or even could follow it: Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues. Show us that you deserve the power you seek.

I was right all the way down to the prediction that they wouldn't do it and the belief — which I still hold — that they couldn't do it even if they wanted.

If you had to take the over/under on Trump 312/Harris 226, you'd take the over.

১৫৪টি মন্তব্য:

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

I literally just heard Duane Patterson play this clip. So I'll steal his line: "They are having FUN in this campaign. Yeah it will bother those who roll their eyes at Trump's 'arrogance' act, but these guys are having fun!"

(Don't miss the vignette about Vance's wife.)

typingtalker বলেছেন...

Let us not forget that the job of MSNBC not to speak the truth but is to deliver eyeballs to advertisers.

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

On the left- it's all lies. Lies lies and more lies. From lying liars who lie.

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

D-MSNBC = A taste of what Soviet-like State Run Media would be like.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

You know, I said a long time ago that I thought the Democrats should put aside all the Trump-is-evil theatrics and simply engage with him on the substantive merits.

This would require them to acknowledge he has policies and engage with them honestly, which they can NOT do. If they stopped lying about him ("national abortion ban!" "rule like a more fascist Hitler!" "lock up all the gay people!" "end social security!") they would have nothing left to say.

MadisonMan বলেছেন...

Brzezinski claims without evidence that Donald Trump is killing women. The horror. Laughable.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

List your favorite lie that Kamala says about Trump, which is echoed by the DNC Media.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

Mine is, "Trump will sign a national abortion ban."

MadisonMan বলেছেন...

That was also a brilliant answer by Vance. How relatable to everyone.

Gusty Winds বলেছেন...

After kissing Trump's ass in 2016 to pull in ratings on Morning Joe, you have to wonder what made those two and the entire rotational panel sell their souls. I think it was after the 2016 election, they showed up at Mara Lago uninvited, and Trump didn't give them the time of day. Women scorned. Then Trump mocked Mika's facelift.

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

It all started with the Make America Great Again/obsession = You're all Nazis! - alternate reality pep-talk.

with actual creepy Nazi imagery!

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

The big pay-off. Sell-out Drudge knows all about it. There's big money when you turn leftist loyalist.

tcrosse বলেছেন...

Trump is out for the billionaires, while Kamala is for the middle class.

tim maguire বলেছেন...

I was hoping he'd say, "brilliant enough to choose me as his VP."

Gusty Winds বলেছেন...

Trump is having fun, and even Chris Cuomo is trying to resurrect his credibility and join in. Mika is just a miserable bitch. The unqualified arrogance. Where's the joy??

Leland বলেছেন...

People on the left are the only ones I know obsessed with Hitler. Even the History channel has moved on.

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

Compare and contrast those two clips.

Normal Normal Normal v. Hysterical paid-off leftist liar Brezinski

Dixcus বলেছেন...

"Althouse (undecided voter): "Engage with Trump on the merits."

I'll bite: On which substantive issue do you think Donald Trump is wrong, Ann?

And then please post the substantive issues that you think Kamala Harris is wrong about.

Dixcus বলেছেন...

That Leni Reifenstahl staging was deliberate and it was the moment that Joe Biden's fake-Presidency ended.

Dixcus বলেছেন...

Bill Gates has very quietly donated $50 million to rig our elections. He gave the money to a PAC supporting Kamala Harris.

The MS in MSNBC is MicroSoft.

Dixcus বলেছেন...

She worked at McDonalds, after all, Kamala did. Middle class.

Wilbur বলেছেন...

At a couple of points in her rant, she sounded like she was ready to burst into tears. Reminded me of a certain commenter here.
I hope to see her wailing and gnashing her teeth the day after the election.

Dixcus বলেছেন...

It's Inga, folks. Inga.

JRoberts বলেছেন...
এই মন্তব্যটি লেখক দ্বারা সরানো হয়েছে।
AlbertAnonymous বলেছেন...

She and Scarborough used to piss me off. I used to wonder how they could be so stupid to be under the control of the unitary apparatus and not see it.

Once I recognized that they do see it, and they enjoy it, to the tune of millions of dollars a year, and they want that gravy train to continue, forever, I quit being bothered by them and simply ignored them.

They found a way to make a good living in the system.

If the real fascists win and start loading people into trains, they’ll be dutifully pointing out where we’re all hiding, of course. But for now I ignore them.

Sebastian বলেছেন...

"I didn't think one thing in her parade of horribles was true" Fair point, and nothing new about Dems, since some of us remember the collusion hoax and the laptop, but it is still striking, isn't it, that they feel a need to spout such BS to their own true believers.

"they lack the material to fight on the merits" They have the material, it's just that progs need to hide it during elections, since fighting on the "merits" of actual CA progressivism is still a sure loser in the country at large. Example: after the election Harris will get right back to an open border and mass amnesty.

Question: can Harris explain the merits of any policy--I mean, with evidence and arguments, like they used to in college and in courtrooms? Never seen her do it.

I Shouldn’t Have Left the White House বলেছেন...

Honestly Biden owns this if she loses. He should never have run again, he must have known he wasn’t up to it, and he should have allowed a proper primary to play out to select the strongest candidate against Trump. No one seriously believes Harris is that candidate. She shows no sign of being able to give basic coherent answers to the most obvious questions.

That is exactly the plan that James Carville layed out in his initial interviews with Maureen Dowd in the NYT. And Biden and the donor class-sponsored White House staff short-circuited the democratic process. The Democrats no longer trust a majority of the American people which is why there is no majority to support what was once the people's party.

JRoberts বলেছেন...

Of course, the MSM's take/headlines on Vance's story about his wife will be: "Melania and Usha both hate their husbands for being in politics"

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

The corrupt left are going to cheat. Be happy.

Wa St Blogger বলেছেন...

I have asked many of times for the left to refute the claim I made that they are wrong on every substantive issue over the last 20+ years. No one has made even one attempt other than to say nuh uh!

When your side has to lie about what their agenda is to get votes, that is a bad sign. (i.e. Take moderate positions that mimic the other side's positions.)

The democrats can't compete on merits because they are out of synch with the country. They HAVE to run on fear.

Dave Begley বলেছেন...

Mika and Joe deserve each other.

Wa St Blogger বলেছেন...

Here are just a few substantive issues that the Democrats are wrong on:

Education: Children, the poor and the minorities are hurt by Dem policies. They support unions over the desires of the parents and the education of the children. Opposing charter and other programs proven to work.

Immigration: Children, the poor and women are hurt by Dem policies. They prefer to allow the criminal elements to control who comes across, not the US government. Gangs use rape, enslavement, and payments” to smuggle people across. Children become sex salves in America. Gang members come across and settle into poor neighborhoods and cause great harm. The competition for jobs drives prices down and citizens from jobs. Increase in drugs into the country harm the most vulnerable.

There is simply no good argument for illegal immigration. If they want more immigrants, they can advocate for increases in legal quotas and let the people who stand in line first shot, not the ones who cut.

Transgender: Children and women harmed most. This is the party of child mutilation and the exposure of women to pre-surgery males. Women in sports lose out to biological men and are at greater risk of injury

I have more

Dixcus বলেছেন...

President Joe Biden: "We need to lock Trump up. Now."

Former Democrat Presidential Candidate and Senator John Kerry: "We need to eliminate the First Amendment."

Keith Olberman: "We need to arrest Elon Musk. Now. Not tomorrow."

Mika Brzezinski (Russian with Yuge Unibrow): "Donald Trump is murdering women."

These fucking people are CLINICALLY INSANE and none of them should be anywhere NEAR any lever of power in the United States.

They have no idea how quickly they will be gone if they get what they are pining for here.

narciso বলেছেন...

Did they put her back together

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

Mike: "Trump is a Fascist" slightly behind the lie that Biden and Myorkas/harris never opened the southern border and installed millions of illegals and made us pay for them

Dixcus বলেছেন...

Scarborough is being blackmailed. So at least you can understand him doing the Deep State's bidding.

Leland বলেছেন...

"If you had to take the over/under on Trump 312/Harris 226, you'd take the over."

I read yesterday that New Mexico is now in play.

Dixcus বলেছেন...

Primary Delegates for the Democrat Party 2024

Joe Biden: 3,904
Kamala Harris: 0

NBCNews has a report still up on the internet claiming that Republicans are circling a conspiracy theory that Biden will be replaced with Harris even though he was nominated by the Democrat Party to be their candidate.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-float-conspiracy-theory-biden-wont-ballot-rcna121467

This "conspiracy theory" floated by Republicans ... NBCNews still has that up on the internet. That's how trustworthy our media is.

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

Latest batch of Word Salad from Kamala(D)

wild chicken বলেছেন...

This is the rumor in the polling trade too, that over 300 is exactly what's gonna happen. Even supporters are kinda gobsmacked. we'll see...

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

Bad New for Fascist Soviet-Democrats.

BUMBLE BEE বলেছেন...

This morning on FOX it was pointed out that every Republican presidential candidate since Nixon has been labeled a Nazi by dems. So it is Retro!

Temujin বলেছেন...

Interesting story by JD Vance about Trump's secret super power. I think many of us have seen or read tales of how engaging he is, with people across all walks of life, when the cameras are not around. And...many of us have read stories about how awful Kamala is around people under her when the cameras are not around. You can tell a lot about a person in how they treat all people, not just those who can do things for them, when no one is looking.

As for Mika, I think she's just more on stage than most progressives, but the progressive meltdown has officially begun. Things are starting to happen. Dem. Senators running for reelection in blue states are starting to state out loud that they like a Trump policy that is well regarded in their state. Such as fracking in Pennsylvania. Tariffs on imports in Michigan. Those Dem Senators are actually saying out loud, "I agree with Trump on this and I can work with him." They are literally preparing for Kamala's loss, trying to salvage their own careers.

Mika looks awful and sounds crazy. The toll on the psyche of progressives is going to be catastrophic. Psychologists all over the country are going to be staring at the busiest 2-3 year stretch they've ever had. And considering most of them are leftists, it's going to be very difficult on them. The Trump economy will be very good for them, though they will hate him for it.

gilbar বলেছেন...

the Democrat Party's big problem with Trump; is that he is a Real Person, that relates to Real People.
he is NOT a synthetic, that was made by a committee.. He is a REAL PERSON.
you can see How Much that bothers the Democrats.

rehajm বলেছেন...

…that’s the problem with Ann’s argument, innit? Free flow abortion might be the only issue where the Dems are on the same side as an important voting block, and even that’s a close call. That and bribes are all they got but even on bribery it feels like the electorate is on to the game and understands TINSTAAFL…

Eva Marie বলেছেন...

“Sell-out Drudge knows all about it. There's big money when you turn leftist loyalist.”
You may be right. But I continue to believe (without any evidence) that he was also blackmailed. I think his presence was considered a serious factor in Trump’s win and he had to be taken out by the 2nd election. I base my belief on my admiration for Drudge, his friendship with Rush, and his complete silence.

Narayanan বলেছেন...

here is my overly take> CA and MN go red!!! closer to 400

donald বলেছেন...
এই মন্তব্যটি লেখক দ্বারা সরানো হয়েছে।
Ann Althouse বলেছেন...

It's always funny when a commenter tries to give me an assignment as if I work for free. I write what I feel moved to write and you are reading it free. If I were taking assignments, you would never pay what I would have to charge to motivate myself. It would be at least $1,000 an hour, and that's assuming I had some interest in the assignment and it fit into the writing I do on the blog. If it were something else, I can't even think of a price.

Breezy বলেছেন...

Trump wants to give tax breaks to billionaires and millionaires, while Trump’s tax proposals are no tax on tips, social security or overtime. Hardly the millionaire-plus crowd.

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

Corrupt Democrats know they can cheat. Why bother debating seriously and honestly on any issue?

RCOCEAN II বলেছেন...

I expected tears. No Oscar for you - mika

Mark বলেছেন...

The setup for a replay of 2016 is perfectly in place.

One side assured that the others candidate is a total idiot and they are confidently talking up their 300+ electoral votes.

Thing is, it's the flip of 2016 in terms of the party about to gobsmacked that the person they decided as an idiot won. Wonder who the rights Chappell will be. Rogan?

RCOCEAN II বলেছেন...

Once again Trump shows how funny and relatable he is. Its really sad we have to keep talking about the NOISE the MSM puts out about Trump. But they have the microphone and can shout out any crap they want. We can only respond.

rehajm বলেছেন...

even felony indictments don't undermine Trump's standing with the public.
They’re REALLY mad about this. So many assholes worked so hard on the phony bologna charges and nobody they needed to fall for it fell for it…

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

Eva - I am right with you. Either Drudge sold-out willingly - or - unwillingly. Some dark Soviet-like force was at work.

donald বলেছেন...

Think he’ll murder her?

RCOCEAN II বলেছেন...

This MSNBC used to have Pat Buchanan on, and engage in intelligent discussions, with Scarborough playing the moderate conservative. Then Trump came, and it went full hysterical leftwing. And stupid. My guess is their audience is made up of DC residents and hysterical pussy hat wearing females. I'm sure Mitt Romney watches every day.

Bob Boyd বলেছেন...

They lack the merit to fight on the merits.

Yancey Ward বলেছেন...

I remember that December post well and I think I wrote that those polls Althouse based the map on were designed specifically to force Biden out of the race so that primary voters could choose a stronger overall candidate. I think I also wrote that it would work. That prediction by me was laughably wrong. After March, I thought the Democrats were stuck with Biden- that also turned out to be wrong. I now think the Democrats are stuck with Harris- surely, I can't get that wrong, can I?

Breezy বলেছেন...

Vance is awesome. Mika is a pipsqueak.

Gusty Winds বলেছেন...

The RealClearPolitics map looks good. MAGA voters also are participating in early voting which seems to have the Dems freaked. Trump has to blow it out to win.

But these assholes are already projecting vote count delays in PA, GA, MI and Maricopa County, AZ. Maricopa seems the most openly corrupt in regards to "ballot curing". I'm sure there will be another late night Milwaukee ballot dump.

We're going to to through the same bullshit as in 2020, but this time it's going to be worse. This election isn't winding down. It's ramping up.

DanTheMan বলেছেন...

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”
― H.L. Mencken

Gusty Winds বলেছেন...

The entire point of Mika's fake freak out, (he's killing us), and the latest bullshit Hitler accusations are to create chaos to Dems can release ANTIFA and start riots like we saw in the summer of 2020. If Trump wins, the Dems want to brainwash their base into believing Hitler was just elected again, and any means necessary to stop him are then justified.

Michael Fitzgerald বলেছেন...

Excellent answer and deportment from Vance. Meanwhile, vying for title of The Ultimate AWFL, Brezinski is absolutely deranged. Whoever said that this election was the Mental Health Disruption election for Party members had that silly, vicious twat in mind.

Bruce Hayden বলেছেন...

I was commenting yesterday on how classy Reagan was in his Farewell Speech. But many, maybe most, with Alzheimer's, or age related progressive dementia don’t have that much self awareness. I don’t think that my partner’s father, an otherwise brilliant man, ever realized it. Heck, ever the consummate salesman, he BSed almost until the end. I don’t think that Biden probably ever realizes how bad he has gotten, or remembers it long enough to figure out that he is harming the country, or, maybe with him, ever cares. How important is that, in comparison to the next ice cream cone?

Mason G বলেছেন...

"Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues."

*These* issues? Good luck with that.

• Inflation? Democrats have increased it.
• Illegal immigration? Democrats encourage it.
• ICE vehicles and gas stoves? Democrats want to ban them.
• More expensive "green" energy? Democrats prefer it.
• Men in women's sports? Democrats don't see a problem.
• Wars? Democrats start them.
• Imprisoning political opponents? Democrats are doing it.
• Sexual mutilation of children? Democrats pass laws to enable it.

Dogma and Pony Show বলেছেন...

I've heard it's worse. Evidently the Soviets were far more subtle in how they shaped the news, so as to keep it plausible.

Enlighten-NewJersey বলেছেন...

I've been reading your blog almost for the beginning and enjoy it so much. The topics you chose, your wonderful pictures and the comments often make my day. Your consistency has been unbelievable. Thanks.

Eva Marie বলেছেন...

1. I thought they were only killing cats and dogs. They’re also killing women?
2. Her eyes blink like crazy probably to compensate for rest of her face not moving. Too much Botox my friend. Leave some for the rest of us.

Will Cate বলেছেন...

As I mentioned over on Instapundit last night, even w/o Arizona Trump gets to 300

PM বলেছেন...

Vance is quick on his feet and sitting down.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

Truman called Dewey a fascist. Johnson called Goldwater a Nazi sympathizer.

Bruce Hayden বলেছেন...

That secret power is real. He stayed at, unsurprisingly, Trump International Hotel, when he was in Las Vegas for a couple of events a couple months ago. We spent our time counterprogramming his appearances there in order to avoid the worst of the security measures. In any case, was in the Trump store, talking to the asst. mgr. there, and she told me that he strolled in, about closing time (midnight), and they just talked for most of a half hour. Mostly about her. Nothing about him. She’s Black, so maybe not a natural constituent. Didn’t matter to him. Around the hotel, a surprising number of the staff have similar stories.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

Althouse-ta-position is the new Drudge-ta-position.

Michael Fitzgerald বলেছেন...

"The Democrats no longer trust a majority of the American people which is why there is no majority to support what was once the people's party."
Well, that is proving the old adage true about the Party members losing faith in the citizens, and the need to replace those citizens with a more compliant populace. In typical Party member True Believer fashion, this commenter expresses this rueful trope without irony.

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U বলেছেন...

I would also add - the old Drudge was much more even handed... Even with a right-tilt. Now? He's just an arm of D-MSNBC. It's hysterics and lie-filled links all the way.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

Strongly disagree. Biden had challengers. I blame the Democrat Party, which rigged it so Biden would be the nominee and then rigged it so he would endorse her. It's on them. At this point I don't hold Biden responsible for anything he does or does not do.

Bruce Hayden বলেছেন...

Not without massive, very visible, cheating. Which many of us here fully expect. Yancey, here and elsewhere, has been questioning whether Trump can beat the margin of fraud in these swing states. He didn’t beat it in 2020, and here, in AZ, they are claiming that they may not have the votes counted for two weeks…

Lazarus বলেছেন...

I didn't see Morning Joe Scarborough in that clip. Maybe Mika's breakdown had more to do with Joe and an intern than with Trump.

Michael Fitzgerald বলেছেন...

Enlighten-NewJersey
"I've been reading your blog almost for the beginning and enjoy it so much. The topics you chose, your wonderful pictures and the comments often make my day. Your consistency has been unbelievable. Thanks."
I'll second that! I'm one of Althouse's snottiest critics, but I love her and her blog! Love you Althouse! Thank you for being you!

Sydney বলেছেন...

Nothing is more convincing or persuasive than an idiot calling other people idiots.

Rusty বলেছেন...

I don't know how many times I've asked our usual suspects to defend their opinions with facts and, to date, I have never had a response.

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

Because right now they can't cheat enough to win

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

You know, I said a long time ago that I thought the Democrats should put aside all the Trump-is-evil theatrics and simply engage with him on the substantive merits... if they can. Maybe they know that would be the better strategy but they lack the material to fight on the merits.

But they can't.
The fundamental thing driving the Dems right now, from their "Orange Man Bad" campaigning, to their push for Court Packing, to their hatred of teh 1st Amendment, is that they know their positions on the issues suck

And they don't care, because what they ONLY care about is power for themselves

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

So, Bruce, what's the "Over / Under" on some Republicans being tired of Maricopa vote fraud, and just breaking into the place and shooting everyone on Friday after the election?

Jersey Fled বলেছেন...

I personally like the lies they tell about themselves, depending on the ignorance and gullibility of their voters.

“When elected we will make Roe the law of the land”. Sysyphus had a better chance of rolling that rock up the hill.

Wilbur বলেছেন...

You may be right. But I seriously doubt it. We'll see.

The past is not necessarily prologue.

Hassayamper বলেছেন...

I continue to believe (without any evidence) that he was also blackmailed

I suspect he got a "plata o plomo" offer from the Deep State or its cronies.

It seems like a lifetime ago, but there was a time when he had the most important news outlet on the Internet, and was as fearless in taking on the Left as Musk is today. Musk is pretty much impervious to that kind of pressure, but Matt Drudge did not have that kind of money, and is an awkward unattractive nerd who probably would have jumped at the chance to fly on the Lolita Express to Epstein's island.

Hey Skipper বলেছেন...

...even felony indictments don't undermine Trump's standing with the public.

They undermined Trump's standing so much that I made my first ever political donation: $1,000 to the Trump campaign.

Jeff Vader বলেছেন...

6am November 6th I’m tuning in to watch Mika have a total and complete breakdown, it’s going to be glorious

Sebastian বলেছেন...

"Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues." They are doing it to some extent: abortion, abortion--which they consider inherently meritorious.

"Show us that you deserve the power you seek." Yes, slight problem there: Dems/progs feel they naturally deserve to rule. Showing why seems so unnecessary, so beneath them.

"they couldn't do it even if they wanted" Well, Harris can't, but then, is there anything she actually can do? I mean, anything real? But Dems can, and some try. But it's hard: on the "merits" of immigration or foreign or trans policy, they are likely to lose voters. So they obfuscate and fall back on Hitler! J6! felon! Which makes the AA point.

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

You were right in March, Yancey, to the point that "the Democrats are stuck with Biden. If he can't win, they are toast".
And they are toast.

I pulled down the Clark County NV (Las Vegas) voter registration DB and the early voting / mail in ballots reports, and did an analysis I posted to X.
The key point is here: https://x.com/BetterScotus/status/1849591361554559388
If you rate voters on the number of times they voted in the last 4 general elections (taking you back to 2016), the people you most want to get out in early voting are the 0,1,2,3 voters. The 4/4 voters are going to vote, you dont' have to worry about them, and getting them out early just means they're not showing up on Election Day.

For the 0-3 voters, the GOP is turning out ~4% more of their registered voters in each category than the Dems. For the 4/4 they're essentially tied (38.42% Dem vs 38.99% GOP). That's with over 100k voters of each Party voting so far, so these are real numbers.

If it's happening like that in the Democrat stronghold of Las Vegas, there's no reason to believe it's not happening like that everywhere in the US.

GOP voters, esp ones who don't vote every election, are excited and eager to get out and vote. Dem voters are not.
It may be that the Dem voters will decide at the last minute to hold their noses, get out, and vote for Harris.
But for all intents and purposes she's the incumbent. And people don't do that for incumbents

Jupiter বলেছেন...

Can Mika Brrrrr-its-cold-in-here really be that ill-informed?

Jersey Fled বলেছেন...

After a year and a half some us got Inga to kinda sorta admit that the Steele Dossier was a hoax, but she seems to be edging back on that one lately.

Jersey Fled বলেছেন...

Depends on whether the Democrats decide to go full Philadelphia on November 5th or call it quits and wait for next time. I still think Trump will win but might take the under.

Paul Zrimsek বলেছেন...

The 312-226 Trump win has been the modal result given by Nate Silver's model all along. This was so even back when Harris had the edge.

Jersey Fled বলেছেন...

Maybe a little off topic here, but Kamala’s numbers are being pumped up by polls from Big Village polling company that are showing her 6+ over Trump. I never heard of Big Village before this morning.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi বলেছেন...

Moronic Joe & Mika are probably voting for Trump. Without the TDS market they would just be another struggling MSM morning news show. A Trump win assures them another 4 year market for their pre-packaged hysteria.

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

If you had to take the over/under on Trump 312/Harris 226, you'd take the over.

Actually, I'd take the Under. Because that way I win either way :-)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, and VA are all possibilities, so the "Over" is certainly possible. But I'll be happy with GOP House, ~55 GOP Senators, Trump wins both EC and "national popular vote", and things being so lopsided on the early counts on election night that the Dems give up and dont' even try to cheat

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

A complete sweep would give the GOP 60 seats in the Senate. While this would be awesome, it would make Lisa Murkowski relevant in a way that wouldn't be the case with 55 GOP Senators, So while I'd love the 60 (esp Hung Can beating Tim Kaine), I'll be almost as happy with 55

Bushman of the Kohlrabi বলেছেন...

Trump is going to cut Social Security and Medicare. The only thing missing in the ad is granny in her wheelchair

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

No, it isn't, Mark
1: Late breakers tend to go against the incumbent / incumbent Party. That's Harris / Dems
2: The Dems will be equally "gobsmacked" this time, and it will against be because they can't believe they guy they've labeled as "evil" (not "stupid") has won.
3: There's no societal reason for someone to be a "shy Kamala" voter, whereas "shy Trump voter" is still a thing
4: The MSM pushing the "inevitable Hillary victory" were wish casting their desires. The ones pushing "oh shit Trump is going to win" are relaying their greatest fears

Bushman of the Kohlrabi বলেছেন...

Trump is going to ban birth control and monitor your gyno visits but only after sending in the military to lock you up in a concentration camp.

rehajm বলেছেন...

I got it right on the nose! No credit from me. Your prediction is based on a race that doesn’t exist anymore. How quick and casual to assume one Democrat President xandidate is identical to the other. I find that disturbing…

Eva Marie বলেছেন...

Hassayamper wrote:
“Matt Drudge did not have that kind of money, and is an awkward unattractive nerd who probably would have jumped at the chance to fly on the Lolita Express to Epstein's island.”
Don’t forget that the deep state/Democrats make things up. Kavanaugh only survived because he had a detailed calendar of his high school years plus the support of his family, friends from high school, former students and colleagues. Drudge is a loner. And they still don’t give up. Every time Kavanaugh makes a decision or statement the left doesn’t agree with they bring out the old falsehood.

Lem Vibe Bandit বলেছেন...

Kamala is more likely to implement dire Mika scare like policies.

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

Last thing, mark: Hillary coasted into the end of her campaign. Trump is out-hustling Harris

Kevin বলেছেন...

That map has a tremendous amount of faith in the good will of Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Phoenix

cfs বলেছেন...

The WSJ today has an article that said the GOP has a secret weapon for winning Senate seats. That secret is the uneducated, low-information voters who will vote for GOP candidates down-ticket without even knowing their names. Just because Trump wants them to. Aghast!! The horror! GOP straight ticket voters are a secret weapon. Who would have thought the voting process could be weaponized in such a manner? Those "uneducated, low information voters" (ULIVs -- pronounced "yoo-levs" I guess)are at it again!

I wonder what the author thought of the Philly Firefighter's Union endorsement of Senate GOP candidate Dave McCormick? They endorsed him and even knew his name!

Greg The Class Traitor বলেছেন...

A thought I just had, sparked by this article https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2024/10/25/harriss-radical-left-base-is-angry-shes-trying-to-hide-her-extreme-left-wing-beliefs-n4933633

The ONLY reason hard left progressive voters have to vote for Harris is "she needs my vote to win."

So, what happens if they decide she isn't going to win?

Well, if Jill Stein is on the ballot, you vote for her, and D down ticket

But what if the Dems kept Jill Stein off the ballot in your State, and you're a leftists pissed at Harris for rhetorically dumping your beliefs?

Once you've decided she's going to lose, do you even bother to vote?

Original Mike বলেছেন...

"It's Inga, folks. Inga."

It's certainly how I picture Inga.

Eva Marie বলেছেন...

BTW I love the ‘plata o plomo’ (so on the nose) and ‘sauve qui peut’ ( from a different thread, I think).

Original Mike বলেছেন...

"I blame the Democrat Party, which rigged it so Biden would be the nominee and then rigged it so he would endorse her. It's on them. At this point I don't hold Biden responsible for anything he does or does not do."

Yeah, Bich wants to shuffle the blame off on the guy with dementia. Kinda like everybody blaming the dead guy.

Original Mike বলেছেন...

"Those Dem Senators are actually saying out loud, "I agree with Trump on this and I can work with him." "

They're lying, people.

Yancey Ward বলেছেন...

Mika is planning on being one of the guards rather than being one of the prisoners.

DanTheMan বলেছেন...

>>If you had to take the over/under on Trump 312/Harris 226, you'd take the over.

Just watch Pennsylvania. If Trump is declared the winner of PA around 10-11P EDT, go to bed. It's over.

Original Mike বলেছেন...

"Thing is, it's the flip of 2016 in terms of the party about to gobsmacked that the person they decided as an idiot won."

There's a difference, one side really does have an idiot this time. But yeah, I expect Harris to win. Why are people basing their expectations on stuff they read on the internet.

Remember the red wave in 2022? Yeah, me neither.

Yancey Ward বলেছেন...

It would be the first time in my lifetime that a Democrat presidential candidate over-performed the polling averages during the last 2 weeks of an election and I am 58 years old.

rehajm বলেছেন...

10-11P EDT on what day???

Hassayamper বলেছেন...

even felony indictments don't undermine Trump's standing with the public.

These "felony indictments".... they BOLSTER his standing, or at least undermine his opponents' legitimacy.

If the shades of Idi Amin and Josef Stalin and Robert Mugabe and Fidel Castro got together in a room to read over the indictments and trial transcripts, they'd be saying "Whaddaya think? Over the top? ... Yeah bro, too much... "

loudogblog বলেছেন...

The Democrats can't run on their policies because they're too busy running from their policies.

It hasn't gone unnoticed by moderates that Democrats govern as liberals but run for office as conservatives. How many campaign commercials have we seen where a Democrat is spouting conservative talking points and the commercial intentionally fails to mention their party affiliation. Heck, even Harris said that migrants need to enter the country legally at the CNN town hall yesterday and that a border wall is a good idea.

Since the Democrats can't run on their own policies (because that's not what the American people want) and they can't act like conservatives all the time, the only other option open to them is to constantly throw personal attacks at their opponents.

loudogblog বলেছেন...

My favorite Democrat lie is that Trump will politically prosecute and imprison his enemies. You can just smell the lack of self-awareness that the Democrats have on this one.

One Fine Day বলেছেন...

The thing that got me to vote for Trump (vs not voting at all) in 2016 was a short clip of him chatting up and interacting with the backstage staff and other hotel staff at some event. He was chatting them up, real easy, they were responding with admiration and appreciation, he was very clearly listening and hearing them. I realized then that his public persona and private/backstage persona were very, very different. It hit me his on stage person (not beliefs, just persona) were of someone entertaining a crowd while his backstage persona was someone relating to individuals. The lightbulb went off for me and I got over my "I can't stand that loudmouthed NY real estate guy" and wound up voting for him.

loudogblog বলেছেন...

Someone else here has read The Moon is a Harsh Mistress by Heinlein.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

It's pretty obvious which campaign is full of joy and which one is full of hate. She wasn't even able to fake the happy schtick in this historically unprecedentedly foreshortened campaign. Two weeks to go and she's out of gas.

loudogblog বলেছেন...

There's a story about the writer Harlan Ellison. Someone called him about doing a DVD commentary for one of his works. He asked how much the pay was. They told him that there wasn't any pay involved. He hung up on them.

Mike (MJB Wolf) বলেছেন...

Seems like only yesterday I read that "Althouse doesn't 'make the case'..."

Former Illinois resident বলেছেন...

If Mika is actually sincere, then frankly she needs mental health Her statements here are irresponsible and ridiculous falsehoods, overt misrepresentations of Trump's own statements, and obviously unprofessional editorialization of unhinged fearmongering. You may not like Trump, but he's not a serious threat to world stability and progress. He is however a formidable threat to American and British progressive-liberal politicians and senior government officials presently in power.

I find Mika and Joe as unwatchable as The View. Equally unpleasant angry progressive-liberal media talking-heads, talking down to their audience, when they have zero integrity and little factual basis for their strident opinions.

loudogblog বলেছেন...

"She's so earnest — or phony-earnest — about wanting women to wake up and start paying attention, but I've been paying attention every day, and I didn't think one thing in her parade of horribles was true."

It didn't go unnoticed that Mika called everyone who didn't agree with her list of horribles "idiots."

Yeah, that's how you sway voters. Call them idiots.

It reminds of how yesterday Walz called the union leaders who don't support Harris, "knuckleheads." That's gonna get the union members to switch to your side. Just call their union leaders knuckleheads.

Former Illinois resident বলেছেন...

Meant to say "she needs mental health intervention, stat".

Hassayamper বলেছেন...

"Devil take the hindmost" or "Every man for himself" are good English equivalents for "sauve qui peut".

doctrev বলেছেন...

Look to the newspapers. The LaT and WaPo refuse to endorse her, because they've read the internal polling and they don't want to be officially tied to flaming dogvomit. More, Bezos knows that most other oligarchs aren't risking themselves to stop Trump. So he'd better play nice if he knows what's good for him.

President Trump is going on offense, quite possibly on Inauguration Day, and I am here for it.

Butkus51 বলেছেন...

Inga on video

Mr. Majestyk বলেছেন...

It looks and sounds like she was having trouble reciting what she was hearing in her ear piece.

Hassayamper বলেছেন...

President Trump is going on offense, quite possibly on Inauguration Day, and I am here for it.

What's on your wish list for his Day 1 blitzkrieg? Here's the beginnings of mine:
- Pardons for all non-violent Jan. 6 political prisoners, and judicious commutations for those whose violence was trivial.
- Pardons for himself and every member of his administration victimized by the Deep State conspirators.
- Pardons for Hunter Biden and Joe Biden for any bribes they took from any foreign country. Bill it as a gesture towards bipartisan reconciliation and healing, and savor the spectacle as they and their lackeys splutter how it's unnecessary and insulting (but pointedly do not take any legal steps to refuse it.)
- A proctological investigation of the American and British NGO's pushing censorship as cat's paws for left-wing politicians and bureaucrats. Draconian prosecutions for civil rights violations against any government official found to be in cahoots with them. The statement should include extremely pointed insults and threats to extradite Sir Keir Starmer and his fascist minions, specifically calculated to be so offensive that all the looney left-wing luvvies on both sides of the Atlantic begin hyperventilating about the threat to the "special relationship". (And I say this as someone with deep connections to Britain. Punish them hard.)
- Immediate dismissal of Jack Smith, Merrick Garland, and every U.S. Attorney. Don't even allow them to submit resignations. Hell, dismiss every single government official in every branch of the Federal government who serves at the pleasure of the President. They can reapply if they think they can work with Trump.
- Call the entire top layer of the Justice Department's permanent civil service into an auditorium. Since they cannot be fired, announce that they are on indefinite home furlough with full pay. Strip them of their ID's, weapons, badges, passwords, and security clearances. Order them not to set foot in any Federal government building but their local post office, nor to have any communications with any other employee of the Federal government, and any disobedience will be treated as insubordination and grounds for permanent dismissal. Have US Marshals escort them out without a chance to return to their desks.

What else? Let's brainstorm the best "Shock and Awe" strategies.

Achilles বলেছেন...

We shouldn't ignore them.

We should watch them the same way Germans should have watched their corporate media.

Mr. Majestyk বলেছেন...

Wait, did these union members lie about being in China during the Tianammen Square massacre? Or maybe they lied about their rank at retirement? Or perhaps their bad grammar caused them to say that they had carried weapons of war "in war." Because doing that stuff makes one a "knucklehead."

Achilles বলেছেন...

It is fun to watch these people pretend they never supported the NAZ... errr... Democrat Party.

Rich was looking forward to throwing all of his political opponents in jail and taking all of their stuff just like some Germans in the 1930s.

Never forget that Rich supports throwing his political opponents in jail and blames Trump for Democrats trying to kill him. These people are scum.

Achilles বলেছেন...

You overestimated the intelligence of the Democrat leadership.

If they were smart they would have taken our advice. But they chose to go with Kamala instead of an open convention.

They had the ultimate golden opportunity there.

Leland বলেছেন...

It is pretty clear we won't know the results on election night, because Philadelphia, Fulton, and Maricopa counties will make sure 46 electoral votes are at play for another week. What will happen then will be based on what they think they can get away with based on exit polls.

Lexington Green বলেছেন...

Trump could pick up some unexpected states where Ds do not have a fraud infrastructure in place. That would be good.

Freder Frederson বলেছেন...

So what you are saying is that Trump is not going to go after his opponents, but people like Bezos should worry about Trump going after him.

Drago বলেছেন...

No Freder, what doctrev is saying is this:

"Look to the newspapers. The LaT and WaPo refuse to endorse her, because they've read the internal polling and they don't want to be officially tied to flaming dogvomit. More, Bezos knows that most other oligarchs aren't risking themselves to stop Trump. So he'd better play nice if he knows what's good for him.

President Trump is going on offense, quite possibly on Inauguration Day, and I am here for it."

I hope that helps.

Drago বলেছেন...

Nate Silver does not have a "model". He simply selects, buffet style, polls to use in an ad hoc fashion to get whatever result he wants at that time.

Rusty বলেছেন...

An interesting anectdote. On my home from shopping I sometimes take the long way rather than going through the neighborhoods. I pass at least six Harris/ Walz signs. Today there were four. Peope are removing their Harris Walz signs.

Rusty বলেছেন...

Isn't wailing and chewing on the scenery her default setting?

Left Bank of the Charles বলেছেন...

“If you had to take the over/under on Trump 312/Harris 226, you'd take the over.”

I would gladly take the under at even money. It’s the odds-on bet if you look at electoral college margins on Predict-It. Even the Real Clear Politics bettings odds has Harris winning at 40%. The over loses if she wins and loses if she loses by less than 96 electoral votes.

Yancey Ward বলেছেন...

It would also be informative regardless of who wins.

Mikey NTH বলেছেন...

Sure, they can cheat. So what? Vote.
Being a wet blanket isn't exactly helpful.

Yancey Ward বলেছেন...
এই মন্তব্যটি লেখক দ্বারা সরানো হয়েছে।
boatbuilder বলেছেন...

Wearing his pussy hat...

Yancey Ward বলেছেন...

Conditional predictions based on popular vote margin..........
Popular Vote Margin............ Trump EV........... Harris EV
+3-4% Harris .............................273 ...................265
+2-3% Harris .............................307 ...................231
+1-2% Harris .............................313................... 225
+0% ...........................................332 ...................206
+2% Trump ...............................348 ...................190

Marcus Bressler বলেছেন...

Agreed. Please continue to write about what YOU want to write about. As I have said many times, it's YOUR blog. Every time I run into a high school friend who is a nationally-published artist, he corners me (singing my praises as a writer and how knowledgeable I am about my adopted hometown) and keeps cajoling me into writing a book about our experiences growing up in Jupiter FL. "You're the only one that can or is capable of doing it! I'll contribute the art." This is usually at a gathering of friends or a reunion, formal or otherwise. I know a lot of people who want ME to do 99% of the work on either their idea or an idea we all thought about at one time or another. Some people are idea men (or women); "I thought about this subject and you'd be great to do it.". I hand him my business card and tell him to call me for a serious sitdown about such a book. He never had called or otherwise contacted me. I am probably going to do it as a collaborative venture, with free contributions (including mine), which I am going to edit and publish. I am also writing a short murder mystery AND my memoirs at the same time - while working three part-time jobs. I'll be happy if I continue to make progress on any of these projects.
I was asked to be the official photographer for a recent reunion, that I would he paid. I said I would but no pay, just feed me. People who pay you have expectations; people who accept your contributions usually have gratitude and can shove their expectations.
Althouse, continue doing what YOU want to do. Blessings.