Nate Silver writes, displaying a list of 9 polls, only one of which shows Harris ahead of Trump. One has the 2 candidates tied, and 7 show Trump leading. Trump is up by 8 in one, as Silver notes. He's up by 6 in two, by 4 in one, and by 2 in three.
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121 comments:
Once people get to see how radical and incapable Harris is, her numbers will tank.
The only way she wins is if the Dems can cheat in swing states like WI, MI, MN, PA, GA and AZ. That's the wildcard.
The cheating worked last time and the Dems elected a senile man-puppet.
Last night on Mark Halperin's 2 way conversation, Newt Gingrich analogized the current Presidential race to the 1972 race between Nixon and McGovern.
That’s a poor, tortured sentence.
Because they oversample democrats.
No matter how much they try
No matter how much they will
They must always bend the truth
Again
Still
Did you see the video of Trump playing golf? It would be nice to have your thoughts about https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=6Rb9b8rYhII&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.powerlineblog.com%2F&source_ve_path=MTM5MTE3LDI4NjY2
This is completely off topic, but I'm not sure that you were going to have a post on this today. I didn't know this movie was coming. No reason I would. But I suspect this will be a closely watched movie by the residents of Meadehouse.
It stars TimothéE Chalamet, FWIW.
On Sunday morning Trump bragging as he had already won. Enjoyed a lead of 3 to 4 points. Predict and Polymarkets put his chances at 80% — Elon Musk pledged $45 million a month. The billionaires knew they bought Trump fully and he was ready to service them at their beck and call much as Stormy was there for him.
Now? 3 days later, Ipsos poll has Harris leading by 2 pts and 4 pts when RFK is included. Trump is ranting to aides that he made a mistake picking JD. Now, Trump is just a morbidly obese, almost senile convicted criminal and no Biden to compare to. Democrats are energized.
Musk said he was misunderstood, no money from him. Not the first time Musk reneged on a deal.
It is not just gender though. It is generational. Trump is now the old man with memory lapses. His message is all about nastiness. From what I’ve heard, Harris’s message is about hope and the future. That’s what voters want to hear about. Not personal revenge.
This is peak Harris. Fawning media, massive sense of relief with Biden stepping down and that new candidate smell. Seems like most of the left have amnesia regarding just how terrible a candidate she is.
It will be interesting to see the arc of those pollls going forward.
I am not a Trumper, but I hope DJT wins. I have my worries, though.
Sales people need something to market. SOB Joe could not be sold anymore. His brand expired. Kamala is pretty and hip and can easily be marketed. I fear this is like Kennedy Nixon all over.
From what I’ve heard, Harris’s message is about hope and the future.
Motherhood and the flag were a bit too edgy, I guess.
Political Junkie said...
Kamala is pretty and hip and can easily be marketed.
Not once she opens her mouth.
And a lot of women don't like any women who are prettier than they are
Dave Begley said...
Once people get to see how radical and incapable Harris is, her numbers will tank.
Dave's RIGHT..
Once people look at her; she will get very few VOTES..
Her vote COUNT though; will be in excess of 100 million
Rich said...
The billionaires knew they bought Trump fully
Really, Rich? What have they "bought" Trump to do?
Cut down on illegal immigration?
Oppose Communist China?
What are the "buying"?
Please, don't keep us in the dark!
"Kamala is pretty and hip and can easily be marketed."
LOL
Rich said...
It is not just gender though. It is generational. Trump is now the old man with memory lapses. His message is all about nastiness. From what I’ve heard, Harris’s message is about hope and the future. That’s what voters want to hear about. Not personal revenge.
Shorter Rich: I go through life with my head up my ass.
DEI is about bitterness, hatred, and revenge.
"Those evil white males 50+ years ago got away with bad things, now we must harm current white males and give unearned jobs to non-"white males" as revenge!
The ONLY "hope" she's destroying is the hope they can destroy America in the future.
"Make America Great Again" is entirely about hope and the future.
Are you really as stupid as what you write, Rich?
Silver is not as stupid as his article makes him out to be. He is writing to the angle he is being told to cover. It is not hard to design a mathematically predictive model to predict who will win the election.
One thing that makes models more predictive is to filter out "noise." When you create a model you include a set of predictive values. What Machine Learning is at it's most basic level is the idea of a reverse derivative.
The reason ML takes so much computing power is you give a model a set of data arrange that in a data table and you give it the list of "answers." You don't change the actual data in the set. You change the "weight" that is given to each variable in the set. Basic ML training makes a small change to each "weight" and sees which change makes the model the most likely to predict the right answer. It then takes the best derivative and repeats that process over and over until it stops getting closer.
One of the knobs you turn training these things is to filter out noise. Variables in your data that are just not very predictive.
These polls are all obvious noise.
Rich, who claims to be intelligent, said...
Ipsos poll has Harris leading by 2 pts
Rich? what do they call that? you know? when a person looks at several pieces of data, and selects the ONE (and Only ONE) that supports his argument? There's a political word for it?
Could you help me out? is it Gerry Picking? Ferry Picking? Merry Picking Very Picking?
i'm pretty sure, there's a word for that.. HELP ME Rich! You Claim to be intelligent!
My gut says Harris will win it. White liberal women will carry her. Too much TDS out there to overcome.
Let's check back after Labor Day.
Nate Silver: Trump leads in 8 of 9 polls
Rich: Poll shows Trump losing!
Hmm...
Rich said...
On Sunday morning Trump bragging as he had already won. Enjoyed a lead of 3 to 4 points. Predict and Polymarkets put his chances at 80% — Elon Musk pledged $45 million a month. The billionaires knew they bought Trump fully and he was ready to service them at their beck and call much as Stormy was there for him.
Now? 3 days later, Ipsos poll has Harris leading by 2 pts and 4 pts when RFK is included. Trump is ranting to aides that he made a mistake picking JD. Now, Trump is just a morbidly obese, almost senile convicted criminal and no Biden to compare to. Democrats are energized.
Musk said he was misunderstood, no money from him. Not the first time Musk reneged on a deal.
It is not just gender though. It is generational. Trump is now the old man with memory lapses. His message is all about nastiness. From what I’ve heard, Harris’s message is about hope and the future. That’s what voters want to hear about. Not personal revenge.
I hope the Democrats listen to Rich and carry forward with Kamala.
This prediction by Rich will age about as well as his prediction Trump would back out of the debate. Remember not even one month ago Rich was telling us that Biden was sharp and intelligent and was going to crush Trump in the debate. You are still burdened by what has been. Everyone remembers what you said last week, two weeks ago, 1 month ago, 1 year ago.
Nobody should really argue with the stupidity in Rich's post. Just hope that the Democrat party believes it.
"Did you see the video of Trump playing golf?"
Sorry, I'm preoccupied with a video of ice melting.
"He is writing to the angle he is being told to cover."
Who is telling Nate Silver what to write?! He seems to be self-employed these days.
"all over the place" ≈ solidly pro-Trump
The corrupt lying Progressives have been lying to us since at least 2021 about Joe's dementia. Just who has been really running things. We all know this is Husseins 3rd term to fundamentally transform us. His whole administration was installed along with Joe.
"In 30 minutes of remarks on Capitol Hill, Biden had spoken disjointedly and failed to make a concrete ask of lawmakers, according to Democrats in the room. After he left, a visibly frustrated Pelosi told the group she would articulate what Biden had been trying to say, one lawmaker said.
“It was the first time I remember people pretty jarred by what they had seen,” recalled Rep. Dean Phillips (D., Minn.), who would go on to mount an unsuccessful primary challenge against the president.
That was October 2021. That month was the last time Biden met with the House Democratic caucus on the Hill regarding legislation."
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2024/07/24/the-wsj-details-the-biden-presidencys-long-journey-towards-political-death-n2642448
Interview enough registered Democrats, and you'll get a poll favoring Harris. Intelligence, competence, and track-record of accomplishments are of no consideration whatsoever; Harris is poster-girl for women who have risen by a combination of literally her sexual favors to powerful men, resulting political sponsorships, and generational liberal affirmative-action/DEI hiring policies of corporations, government agencies, and democratic party slating goals.
Many democrats have endured several financial setbacks during Biden administration, yet blindly loyal to party, remaining loudly "orange-man-bad" regardless of their personal financial situations.
Silver must know that the way to understand it is to plot the various polls on a bell curve and take the midpoint. It’s not that hard, but it puts Trump in the lead.
Biden will address the nation on TV tonight.
If he does well, that will reinforce the concept that he was forced out in an elitist coup.
If he does poorly, it will reinforce the concept that he should resign now, and that Harris and the rest of the Deep State were conspiring to hide the truth from the voting rubes.
Boys vs girls. Who will win?
Trump will need as many girl votes as he can get, so next time you or J.D. Vance feels like going off on cat ladies and their wombs, I hope someone locks you in a room with Susie Wiles until you get the ways of the world explained to you.
Life is tough, but it's tougher when you're stupid. Cut that shit out.
My guess is Harris will make all manner of aspirational claims. Two questions in response:
You’re in office now. Why haven’t you done that? Has statesman Joe Biden stopped you?
And
If you haven’t done those things, what is it you say that you do around here? (h/t Office Space).
Welll, not necessarily the mid point, but all measurements cluster around the true value unless something systematic is going on introducing an error.
I don ‘t know which polls are registered voters and which are likely voters, nor do we know how the polls determine which voters are likely. The bulk of the article is behind a paywall, snd I’m not going to bother working my way around it.
And some of these polls are pretty suspicious. Ipsos is way out of line with the other polls, and HarrisX not only is out of line with the others, but shows zero votes for RFK Jr and zero undecided. When collecting data for my mathematical models I am trained to ignore outliers. I presume Silver’s training is similar, which makes this article itself suspect.
The world knows Kamala is a lightweight. It's not enough for the Democrat to destabilize the country, they want to make us the laughingstock of the world.
The Dems have NOTHING left. They are the proverbial little boy on Christmas morning sifting through a pile of horseshite looking for the pony they know is in there. To see the Legacy Media immediately POUNCE on Trump being the oldest candidate for president now, ev-vah! and trying to hoist the Jamaican bacon up onto their shoulders and carry her through to the White House is oh so ironic and hilariously delicious.
The Dems are literally "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight!"
The reality of the situation is sinking in and driving the Democrats on here to self parody.
@ Greg the CT — It’s a handful of west coast financiers doing what Wall Street bankers have long done — feathering their nests. They represent Silicon Valley about as much as the traditional Wall Street types represent the Bronx.
It's not that these individuals are involved in technology; it's that they've become rich from their involvement in technology. They're wealthy people who will vote for a Republican to protect their wealth. Competence in government to them means a person in government who will act in such a way as to let them win. And not just a bit, but in a winner-take-all way. It's Peter Thiel's theory that every tech investment should turn into a monopoly (read his lectures on economics), and Thiel has said, on the record, that he "will hold [his] nose and vote for Trump." Silicon Valley venture capitalists enjoy a great many tax breaks that they are afraid of losing and that is the sole reason they would support Trump.
I'm sure partners in private equity firms and other wealthy individuals will on the whole support Trump for the same reason, but the tech label will gild Trump and distract from the fact that the wealthy are willing to risk another four years of absolute chaos, climate denial, and existential brinksmanship in order to save themselves a few more billions. Frankly, it's ugly and has nothing to do with technology.
I would expect Harris to enjoy a nice bump in the short term. She might be able to win on the "I'm not Trump" strategy, but she's in a difficult position - She has to distance herself from the current administration (of which she is a part of) without throwing them under the bus and moving dramatically away from it. Nothing in her history indicates she has the talent to do this.
She's been able to run very left being from California. This is the first truly competitive general election she's had to be the face of. Get your popcorn ready.
"Who is telling Nate Silver what to write?! He seems to be self-employed these days."
I would think it is the same phenomenon that causes 99% of main stream media to push the same narrative using the same phrases and images. Remember that the journolist was just exposed, it didn't go away.
Silver is not being paid to do anything but one of the narratives being pushed is there is hype and excitement around Harris replacing Biden. Part of that narrative is that she will poll better than Biden. Silver is just doing his part to by adding to the smoke screen. As you said: "all over the place" ≈ solidly pro-Trump. But only if you dig into the details. The headline that will get parroted by the media is "all over the place".
Silver indicates a belief that Harris' numbers will improve once she starts actively campaigning, giving speeches and the like. He must have missed the effects of Harris' campaigning in 2019.
Ann Althouse said...
"He is writing to the angle he is being told to cover."
Who is telling Nate Silver what to write?! He seems to be self-employed these days.
You are right. I missed that. Interesting. Haven't paid much attention to mainstream media lately. Silver probably has more reach now that he is away from them.
I will take a look at this current methodology.
Any polls included in this have to be moving average polls though.
Snapshot polls are just silly.
As I wrote in a comment last night a statistical tie is a huge Trump electoral vote win. To actually win the election in a fair vote, Harris needs to win the national vote total by at least 4% and margin might be a lowball estimate since I expect Harris polls significantly better than Biden in the deep blue (leans 15% Democrat) states and will poll somewhat worse than Biden in the states that lean 5% Democrat or less.
Even these new Harris polls show Trump polling almost 10% margin better than he did at the same point in 2020 and Biden only won that election by a combined 100K votes in the swing states that determined the outcome.
Right when her halo should be shining brightest, she's behind in most polls.
Wait until the commercials begin airing with Antifa/BLM mobs burning down buildings and attacking passers-by, and the voiceover will be Kamala supporting them in her own words, with a reminder that she collected millions of dollars to bail them out.
Or clips of enormous mobs of illegals storming the border while she was supposed to be in charge of stopping them, and ending with her bizarre cackling laughter.
Or her comments supporting 80% tax rates, banning private cars, and other coastal-urban-marxist fantasies of the extreme Left. And on and on and on.
If Trump is smart he won't dwell too much on the details of how she garnered the support of powerful male politicians in California.
Silver knows this, too.
Now, do I trust any polls? Not really. I suspect that a lot of the Biden/Trump pollsters had the ulterior motive of getting Biden out because he really was under-polling vs 2020 so they made that more obvious and extreme as a cudgel. Now that Harris seems to be the new dog food the motive switches and you will start seeing more of the polls oversampling Democrats and under-correcting for it just like they did in 2020 and 2016- why Trump always seems to do far better than the polling indicates even just a week before the election not to mention the previous 6 months.
tommyesq said...
Silver indicates a belief that Harris' numbers will improve once she starts actively campaigning, giving speeches and the like. He must have missed the effects of Harris' campaigning in 2019.
Silver believes this because that is the way it has always been. What Silver is not including is the effect that X has started to have on our society. He is an expert and has a tendency to miss the forest for the trees.
X is shortening the approach to consensus. People are able to talk and trade information faster now without the filters that used to be there.
Our society is coming to equilibrium almost instantly now. The news of Kamala becoming the nominee has already been processed and everyone's input has been received into the system. People used to have to wait to see what their friends and peer's thought. Now they don't.
Call it the Shortening of the Way.
I think Biden is the worst president I have ever seen. I harbor some resentment that Biden's handlers foisted this semi-comatose disaster on the nation. I wish the presidential election was Biden versus Trump because I want Biden's handlers to go down with the infected rust bucket of a garbage scow they pushed on us and then defended.
I think Harris is a joke. And a commie.
That having been said, Harris has a chance at winning. She isn't Trump. And she isn't Biden either. "Woo hoo! Let's elect the first woman president! and the first woman of color!" After Obama was elected I started recognizing the extent to which many voted for him precisely because of his ethnicity. Many voters didn't care about his many negative characteristics. His ethnicity was what mattered.
When Biden resigned, he took Trump with him. Trump is too old and too orange and both he and the guy with the initials are too angry. They are lead balloons.
I’m not a Democrat flag waver but Harris has youth and energy and you can feel those making a change already.
Hassayamper said...
If Trump is smart he won't dwell too much on the details of how she garnered the support of powerful male politicians in California.
If Trump is smart he will just ignore her existence and let the X mob and meme creators do their thing until she is confirmed at the convention.
hombre said...
The world knows Kamala is a lightweight.
She is skipping Netanyahu's address to Congress tonight and instead is speaking to her sorority gathering. That should dispel the idea that she is vapid, unserious, and superficial!
But it's the distribution of votes that matters.
I'm so tired of people saying Hillary or whoever won the popular vote. It's like saying the Red Sox lost the game but they got more hits. Who cares? If the election were decided by popular vote the candidates and voters would behave differently.
The reason Kamala is gushing about "hope and the future" is because at present and during the last 3+ years she and Biden have created a stinking mess. She can't run on their record and the MSM/DNC will work hard to bury it and absolve her of any accountability. But she also has a pretty stinky past in California that she created without Joe's help.
“Who is telling Nate Silver what to write?! He seems to be self-employed these days.”
Nate Silver works for Peter Thiel now. What were the odds of that happening?
Rich: "I’m not a Democrat flag waver"
Stop lying.
JD should always remember not to forget, childless cat ladies vote, as well!
"Did you see the video of Trump playing golf?"
Sorry, I'm preoccupied with a video of ice melting.
You're cutting yourself off from a very interesting, informal, behind-the-scenes look at Trump the man, who is a lot more genial and pleasant and funny than Trump the politician. The camera runs for an hour at pretty close range, catching everything that he and DeChambeau say to each other, but you can get the flavor of it in ten minutes. It's becoming quite the viral must-see phenomenon.
If he can spotlight this side of himself when he's on stage or in interviews, he will help himself mightily.
I would enjoy a round of golf with this version of Trump, but it turns out he is a REALLY REALLY good golfer and I would be utterly humiliated.
Here's the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb9b8rYhII
Nate Silver is the Paul Krugman/Jim Cramer of polling. His record proves even a blind squirrel can sometimes find a nut.
Nancy said:
I'm so tired of people saying Hillary or whoever won the popular vote. It's like saying the Red Sox lost the game but they got more hits. Who cares?
Similar - it's like a team losing four games in the World Series but claiming victory because they scored more total runs over the 7 games. Who cares?
And a lot of women don't like any women who are prettier than they are
This was a big problem for Sarah Palin. She said a few dumb things, but male politicians before and after her have said lots dumber stuff than she did, and it didn't really hurt them.
Country-club Republican women in the suburbs saw their middle-aged husbands going gaga for her, and narrowed their eyes and flared their nostrils.
Rich said...
“Who is telling Nate Silver what to write?! He seems to be self-employed these days.”
Nate Silver works for Peter Thiel now. What were the odds of that happening?
This is something people will need to look at an pay attention to during this election. There has been a massive split in the ranks of the wealthy.
Watch for Rich and his leftist friends to start attacking the VC Tech crowd and the Cryptocurrency space.
The old/globalist wealth and the new/tech wealth are now enemies. You can watch the All In One Podcast episode 184 to figure out why.
Oh, Rich. We know exactly what you are.
Rich said...
When Biden resigned, he took Trump with him. Trump is too old and too orange and both he and the guy with the initials are too angry. They are lead balloons.
I’m not a Democrat flag waver but Harris has youth and energy and you can feel those making a change already.
And she can smile like a doughnut while juggling coconuts.
"Once people get to see how radical and incapable Harris is, her numbers will tank.
"The only way she wins is if the Dems can cheat in swing states like WI, MI, MN, PA, GA and AZ. That's the wildcard.
"The cheating worked last time and the Dems elected a senile man-puppet."
For being an attorney, you are shamelessly promiscuous in making wild statements and accusations with a big side serving of "no evidence."
I've never been impressed by Harris, but I haven't heard of any documented "radicalism" or unusual degree of incapability on her part. On the other hand, Trump, the "business genius," has a long history overstuffed with failed businesses and bankruptcies. Moreover, how can you know Harris cannot win except by cheating, (cheating that you persist in ascribing to Biden's win in 2020, despite there still being no available proof of such cheating)? It's obvious Trump and his confederates (in and out of Congress and the Supreme Court) are at least somewhat worried Harris can win--a fear they had not at all with Biden. Maybe they are being more realistic than you are.
I've voted Green Party since 1996, reflecting my disdain for both parties and their candidates in those years. However, I will vote for Harris this fall, for one reason and at least one certain fact: She is NOT TRUMP, and I'm voting the NOT TRUMP ticket.
"She is NOT TRUMP, and I'm voting the NOT TRUMP ticket."
Well, that does it. Trump has lost the Cookie's vote so the race is over.
Robert Cook said...
For being an attorney, you are shamelessly promiscuous in making wild statements and accusations with a big side serving of "no evidence."
What evidence do you have that 81 million people voted for Joe Biden?
jaydub: "Well, that does it. Trump has lost the Cookie's vote so the race is over."
The Path To The White House has never really run thru the Unreconstructed Stalinist Voters.
The Republicans need to circulate nomination papers to make sure Joe Biden's name appears on every swing state ballot. Trump. v. Harris. v. Biden v. RFK
Split their ticket. They left a wide open net.
LLR-democratical Rich: "I’m not a Democrat flag waver...."
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Now that is some pure, unadulturated LLR-democratical Chuck schtick!
The Althouse blog LLR-democratical brigade never disappoints.
Robert Cook:
Kamala Harris is on film wanting to ban fracking nationwide. Unless the Trump campaign somehow forgets to show that film, or she somehow comes up with a convincing come-to-Jesus, I-was-wrong, I-love-fracking campaign, chances of winning Pennsylvania are minuscule. That's pretty damned radical.
Karma-la, Trump, democratic combat, vote!
Trump said Harris “won’t be too tough” to beat, pointing out that her previous presidential campaign in 2020 was unsuccessful
I know someone else whose 2020 presidential campaign was unsuccessful
Worth noting that Hillary Clinton got nearly 3 million more votes than Trump in 2016, just not in the right places to win the electoral college and election. The point being that enough Americans will vote for a woman for president for her to win.
Trump didn’t have the baggage that he has now, and is now the retread candidate, while Harris doesn’t have Clinton’s baggage and is the new candidate.
Achilles: "Watch for Rich and his leftist friends to start attacking the VC Tech crowd and the Cryptocurrency space."
This started in earnest just yesterday with LLR-democratical Rich panicking over this growing political/policy split in Silicon Valley with Rich desperately spinning about how it didnt mean anything and SV would forever remain in The New Soviet Democratical Camp.
Rich's Chuck-like anger then led Abacus Boy Rich to launch techno-ignorant attacks against Musk companoes and leading edge tech development to make himself feel better.
It was quite entertaining: Rich screaming about how terrible Tesla and Musk's other companies are while the savvy investors buy in more and the shortsellers crash out losers!
Remember: according to Rich, X was supposed to dead in the water 18 months ago!
"She is skipping Netanyahu's address to Congress tonight and instead is speaking to her sorority gathering. That should dispel the idea that she is vapid, unserious, and superficial!"
Skipping Netanyahu's address may not be an indication of vapidity; it may indicate a distaste on her part for a criminal and mass murderer, and a disinclination to validate him by her presence.
Robery Cook: "Skipping Netanyahu's address may not be an indication of vapidity; it may indicate a distaste on her part for a criminal and mass murderer, and a disinclination to validate him by her presence."
Stalinists truly disdain the non-mass-murderers that the Stalinists have mendaciously labeled mass murderers.
Ann Althouse: "all over the place" ≈ solidly pro-Trump"
Exactly
Dr Weevil said...
Kamala Harris is on film wanting to ban fracking nationwide. Unless the Trump campaign somehow forgets to show that film, or she somehow comes up with a convincing come-to-Jesus, I-was-wrong, I-love-fracking campaign, chances of winning Pennsylvania are minuscule. That's pretty damned radical.
Pfft. Small ball.
Kamala Harris is on record keeping Black Men in Jail longer than their sentences because they needed them to keep jail workforce numbers up.
Kamala Harris is on record concealing and withholding exonerating evidence from cases involving death row inmates until forced to release that evidence by a court.
It is highly unlikely that Harris is the candidate. If she is then Black and hispanic men will no longer be a Democrat constituency and will probably be solid Republicans for a generation.
On the other hand, Trump, the "business genius," has a long history overstuffed with failed businesses and bankruptcies.
Not this shit again. 60 or 70 percent of businesses fail within five years. Trump had SIX bankruptcies out of nearly 500 different business enterprises he's founded. One of the best batting averages in the history of American business. Hall of Fame numbers for an American entrepreneur.
The Harris family are all quite brilliant. EXTREMELY leftwing CV. I see no aneurysm in her background. I'm not getting the doofus game.
Feel safe yet?? Don't be so sure...
The Dank Knight 🦇
@capeandcowell
What a wild time to be alive. The U.S. has to hire extra security for visiting dignitaries to protect them from the violent left-wing insurrectionist thugs
But somehow in their broken minds MAGA is the real danger
Breaking911
@Breaking911
More than 200 NYPD officers have been sworn in as United States Capitol Police Special Officers to assist with tomorrow’s joint-session address to Congress by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Eyal Yakoby
@EYakoby
The DC Palestinian Youth Movement released maggots and crickets were released throughout the Watergate Hotel where Netanyahu is staying.
The protestors also pulled multiple fire alarms throughout the night.
This is an utter security failure.
Kamala supporters are going nuts in DC, and the media is too upset (Jennifer Rubin) that people are calling Kamala, Kamala....Not Harris, or VP Harris.
Jen "Denial Dooms Democracy " Rubin
@JRubinBlogger
Her name is Harris or VP Harris. News reports calling her "Kamala" may not be intentionally disrespectful or demeaning but that is how she is treated. It's wrong.
7:37 AM · Jul 24, 2024
"Not this shit again. 60 or 70 percent of businesses fail within five years. Trump had SIX bankruptcies out of nearly 500 different business enterprises he's founded. One of the best batting averages in the history of American business. Hall of Fame numbers for an American entrepreneur."
You are embarrassing yourself. Please stop. How many casinos has Warren Buffet bankrupted? Trump is no hall of fame businessman. As the CEO of Foxconn who is the better negotiator. Trump is just an entertainer.
Trump Adoration Syndrome is just as lame as TDS.
Rich said...
Trump said Harris “won’t be too tough” to beat, pointing out that her previous presidential campaign in 2020 was unsuccessful
I know someone else whose 2020 presidential campaign was unsuccessful
Worth noting that Hillary Clinton got nearly 3 million more votes than Trump in 2016, just not in the right places to win the electoral college and election. The point being that enough Americans will vote for a woman for president for her to win.
How many votes did Trump get in 2016?
How many votes did Trump get in 2020?
Trump won the election in 2020 75 million to ~62 million. Trump ran the most successful campaign in history in 2020. That was 10 million more votes than Barack Obama got at his peak in 2008.
Only the presence of 21 million mail in ballots over 20 million of which went to Joe Biden that have no chain of custody, no unique ID, no archived images, no cross reference to voter rolls, no real auditability and showed up the night after the election in buildings that had windows boarded up and at which counting was "paused" simultaneously in 6 different states at multiple locations only to be restarted hours later with Joe Biden in the "lead."
Rich is not really a deep thinker.
Kamala Harris is on record keeping Black Men in Jail longer than their sentences...
Kamala Harris is on record concealing and withholding exonerating evidence...
She's not only wicked as in her Pro-Choice religion, but also a rabid Diversitist in progressive themes.
Trump is no hall of fame businessman.
I don't even know if there is such a thing, I was using it metaphorically. If there is, he would certainly be in it.
It's comical to hear a guy whose enterprises generate enough cash flow to maintain a private 757 jet for several decades described as a "failed businessman."
The one poll that showed Harris ahead oversampled Democrats.
Always look at the crosstabs...
"Skipping Netanyahu's address may not be an indication of vapidity; it may indicate a distaste on her part for a criminal and mass murderer, and a disinclination to validate him by her presence."
Cookie, you may wish for a world where Jews don't fight back, but the reality is different. It's an important speech regardless of your view of the conflict. The President of the Senate should have some responsibility to attend official events like a joint session. And attending a speech is not validation of anything the speaker says, but you knew that.
Kamala prefers vapid and does it really well. She'll enjoy her sorority event in Indy.
D. D. Driver: "How many casinos has Warren Buffet bankrupted?"
How many casinos does Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway own?
They own some luxury resorts but I am not aware of any casinos in the portfolio. I might have missed it. I am sure DDDriver knows the answer to that, right?
And the correct questions to ask about the Trump reorganizations under Chap 11 is: what was happening in the broader market context at the time? Chap 11 is used all the time by good companies to reorganize.
How many other casinos struggled or went bankrupt at the same time?
After reorganization, did tbe reorganized business survive, potentially even thrive?
So when did these Trump casino bankruptcies occur: 1991, 1992, 2004 and 2009
So, at the height of Desert Shield/Desert Storm, in 2004 at the start of the Native American reservations casino expansions competition and massive industry-wide consolidation to survive and reduce debt amongst all major casino owners, and in 2008/2009 in the "Great Recession".
Even PolitiFact, no friend of Trump, looked at all four of Trump’s Chapter 11 bankruptcies and determined that they were a result of business struggles largely beyond the billionaire-turned-presidential-candidate’s control.
Well, thanks for playing DD Driver. You'd make a terrific CFO.
This is a mosaic of Kamala made out of all the black men Kamala kept in jail past the end of their sentences.
This is why I want her to be the nominee.
Over at Real clear Politics, Harris only leads in a head to head with Trump where the third party candidates aren't a choice. Trump better hope that RFK Jr. doesn't drop out of the race.
I think by picking Whitmer as VP, you're trying to overwhelm Trump with turnout from your strengths. If you're picking one of the men, you're trying to shore up one of your weaknesses in the places where he is strongest.
Shapiro or Kelly are the only ones that I think make sense among the guys.But there is a case for Whitmer. I would be surprised. She's keeping basically the same Biden team. I'm not sure this is a move they would make. So I would think you would get Kelly or Shapiro. And Shapiro makes more sense because he's in a state that's more important to your fortunes than Kelly.
Do people not understand that she's usually called 'Kamala' because it's a far more distinctive name than 'Harris'? Wikipedia has a 'List of people with surname Harris' that includes literally hundreds of names: there are two Q. Harrises, one X. Harris, eight Z. Harrises (Zahmyre, Zakiya, Zeiko, Zelda, Zellig, Zin, Zinnie, and Zudie), and dozens for most of the other letters. None of them are super famous, but there are an awful lot of them.
We called Mrs. Clinton 'Hillary' and the younger Bush 'W' not (usually) out of disrespect but because there were two of each name in politics. We called Eisenhower 'Ike' or 'Eisenhower' because he was fortunate enough to have two distinctive names, as does Barack Obama. We call RFK Jr. 'RFK Jr.' because we have to: he doesn't have any distinctive name. We usually call Trump 'Trump' because his last name is much more distinctive than his first. Duh!
The sugar high of tossing Joe aside will soon wear off. Democrats will then quickly move on to Kamala anxiety. Some in the party will continue to want an alternative but she will prevail because those in charge view her as the next best puppet candidate to Joe.
Mosaic of Kamala Harris made out of all the black men she locked up and kept in prison past their release date for jail
She has Indo-Jamaican privilege, but karma's gonna get her.
I've been visiting one odds site since the assassination attempt; Trump has slipped a little since before last weekend when everyone started saying Biden was imminently dropping out (I think the best odds I saw for Trump were -225 or so), and for a minute Trump was at something like -150 to Harris's +150. That was last night, I think...
At present, Trump is at -154 and Harris is at +400, so maybe the halo is already tarnishing?
Robert Cook’s support for Kamala would normally be enough to convince me to vote for Trump, but Kamala has given We the People ample reason to be willing to crawl for miles across hot coals laced with broken glass to vote against her:
She is lazy.
She is stupid.
She is corrupt.
She is incompetent.
She got where she is by unjust actions towards young black men.
Meanwhile I find solid reasons to support Donald Trump:
His economic policies, as demonstrated in his previous term of office.
His support for the working people and small businesses of the United States.
The Abraham Accords.
In addition, I believe the Democrat Party as a whole needs to be punished for:
Its lurch into antisemitism.
TDS, including the (deliberate, I presume) incompetent security at Donald Trump’s rally on July 13th.
Their support for Joe Biden’s policies, including, but not limited to, our open Southern border, wasteful spending in an almost unimaginable scale (e.g., $7.5 billion to create a network of EV chargers and only 8 built), and mandatory COVID vaccinations.
Lawfare, not only against Trump but against Trump associates and supporters.
DEI.
Their bullshit lies about the alleged honesty of the 2020 election.
I stayed up late to watch the video of Trump playing golf. I never ever watched an hour of golf before. But watching Trump over 18 holes of golf you get a real idea of how fit Trump is and how he reacts. You can see some amazing drives and you see how he reacts when he misses several putts. I've always thought Biden was done in by the debate because people got a chance to see him continuously over a fairly long period of time. Everybody makes slips so a video of Biden making a slip didn't necessarily seem conclusive evidence on how he was overall whereas watching him continuously over 90 minutes gave people a real sense of his decline. Eveyone concluded that he wouldn't make it through another four years and that he shouldn't be the candidate. The debate left it up in the air up in the airas to whether or not Biden should be President right now. I thought anybody could see he wasn't capable any more of making decisions but that wasn't how others saw it. Still, The opportunity to observe Joe Biden continuously was a gamechanger. Anyhow, back to the golf game - it gives a real idea of how fit Trump is to watch him continuously and see him making those long drives onto the green at the later holes.
Rich said that all the tech finance and VC guys are backing trump to feather their nests!?! You mean like how Google Facebook and twitter all conspired to get trump elected in 2020?!? And all the mega donors from Citibank and all the hedge funds out of manhattan?!?
Are you freaking kidding?
Are you not aware of what happened since trump was elected? There’s a unified front from everyone in tech and VC and finance and of course the media to destroy trump and do whatever is necessary to elect whoever is not trump. I could list a dozen examples off the top of my head how this played out. Please tell me you are joking. That doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.
"Rich" mnakes another stupid comment:
And Shapiro makes more sense because he's in a state that's more important to your fortunes than Kelly.
Have a look at the Hamas riot today and then tell me how likely a Jewish VP nominee is.
The polls should not stabilize until the novelty wears off, which is usually about a month.
That goes infinityable if Harris is pushed out, which is not unlikely.
One of the (many) things that the media is glossing over about Harris is her age. She's being portrayed as young and hip in contrast to Trump. But they are both Baby Boomers. He was born in 1946 at the beginning of the generation, and she was born in 1964 at the end. She will be 60 before the election, which isn't that young for a presidential candidate. Obama had been out of office for 5 years before he turned 60.
she was born in 1964 at the end. She will be 60 before the election, which isn't that young for a presidential candidate. Obama had been out of office for 5 years before he turned 60.
Is that so? I did not know that. I would have judged her to be a decade or more younger than that. She is easy on the eyes for a lady of that age. I can see why Willie Brown was so smitten.
Still would not dream of voting for the crypto-commie kook, though.
Robert Cook:
"Kamala Harris is on film wanting to ban fracking nationwide...That's pretty damned radical."
"Pretty damned radical? It seems like good sense to me!
It's not good sense to continue fracking.
Remember, companies used to have ad campaigns citing doctors promoting the benefits of smoking cigarettes.
"Cookie, you may wish for a world where Jews don't fight back, but the reality is different."
There's a vast difference between "fighting back" and targeting civilian neighborhoods for all-out attacks and assaults, killing and maiming tens of thousands of children, women, the elderly, most who have nothing to do with Hamas' attack on October 07.
Is it a "civilian neighborhood" if armed Hamas "militants" are hiding in it? I believe the Geneva Conventions require soldiers to separate themselves from civilians and not hide behind them. And of course thousands of civilians participated in the October 7th massacre and committed some of the worst atrocities.
It's funny, I disagree with nearly everything Robert Cook ever says, often quite emphatically. But in his weird grumpy manner, I find him quite a likable guy. Some of the people on here who largely share my political opinions are people I just know I couldn't stand in real life.
R cook talks about targeting residential areas. This is of course all in Hamas. The reason we have rules of war is to minimize civilian casualties. When actors put their fighter and command and control in civilian areas - mosques, hospitals, residential areas - ALL serious people acknowledge that removes protection as civilian areas and those areas become legitimate war targets. No serious person disagrees with this. It is therefore upon Hamas not Israel that Israel must target what would otherwise be civilian areas.
And of course that doesn’t even bring up that all of this ends when Hamas releases the hostages. The question serious people ask is not how long will Israel continue but rather why does Hamas hate its people so much that it is willing for them
To continue to die rather than release the hostages.
Old and Slow: "Some of the people on here who largely share my political opinions are people I just know I couldn't stand in real life."
Ditto.
Is Harris in the same position as Humphrey when LBJ pulled out? Hard to tell , but there is certainly a lot of unhappiness among the voters about illegal immigration and the cost of feeding one's family. Is it equivalent to the negativeness about Viet Nam? Certainly those two issues directly affect more voters than Viet Nam ever did. Humphrey was probably a better campaigner than Harris and he was certainly better known. I suspect that we will quickly get the Iowa effect from exposure to Harris: she will be shown to be the idiot she is. No serious Dem operative can seriously believe that Harris is the future of the party.
I am still wondering where Obama comes out in all this. He wants an open convention because he thinks Harris is a terrible candidate. The problem is that waiting until Chicago gives Trump a chance to get better organized and leaves a Dem very little time to campaign. If Obama essentially sits out the election what does that mean for the Dems?
@Drago Way to miss the point entirely. The argument was made that Trumps bankruptcy record is proof that he is [check notes] a HALL OF FAME businessman.
Hall of Fame.
Do you agree, Drago? Does forcing casinos to go tits up demonstrate business savvy? How many CEO's would get a chance to run a fourth company after running three other one's into the ground? The only reason Trump was able to do it was because of his family money. No other CEO would get that chance.
HALL OF FAME!
And also: how many times did Steve Wynn go tits up in [checks notes again]: 1991 and then again in 1992 and then again 2004 and then again 2009?
Could happened to anyone, but always happens to Donnie. He's a Hall of Famer!
R cook talks about targeting residential areas. This is of course all in Hamas. The reason we have rules of war is to minimize civilian casualties. When actors put their fighter and command and control in civilian areas - mosques, hospitals, residential areas - ALL serious people acknowledge that removes protection as civilian areas and those areas become legitimate war targets. No serious person disagrees with this. It is therefore upon Hamas not Israel that Israel must target what would otherwise be civilian areas.
And of course that doesn’t even bring up that all of this ends when Hamas releases the hostages. The question serious people ask is not how long will Israel continue but rather why does Hamas hate its people so much that it is willing for them
To continue to die rather than release the hostages.
Rich said...
Greg the Class Traitor said...
Rich said...
The billionaires knew they bought Trump fully
Really, Rich? What have they "bought" Trump to do?
@ Greg the CT — It’s a handful of west coast financiers doing what Wall Street bankers have long done — feathering their nests. They represent Silicon Valley about as much as the traditional Wall Street types represent the Bronx.
You still haven't answered the question, Rich, exactly WHAT is it that they've hired Trump to do?
"They're wealthy people who will vote for a Republican to protect their wealth. Competence in government to them means a person in government who will act in such a way as to let them win"
That's just babbling bullshit. What policy proposals have the hired him to carry out? What law changes / tax code changes / EO changes have they hired him to do?
You can't answer that question, because even you know your claim is complete bullshit
Yancey Ward said...
Even these new Harris polls show Trump polling almost 10% margin better than he did at the same point in 2020 and Biden only won that election by a combined 100K votes in the swing states that determined the outcome.
44k, meaning he won by less than Trum did in 2016 (Trump won by 70k)
AZ + GA + WI was the difference between Trump and Biden winning, and the Biden marking in the 3 states combined was 44k votes.
Harris is doing less well with Hispanics, and Trump is doing very well with black males, so that's a double push for Trump to win
Greg the Class Traitor said...
"That's just babbling bullshit. What policy proposals have the hired him to carry out? What law changes / tax code changes / EO changes have they hired him to do?
You can't answer that question, because even you know your claim is complete bullshit"
It. Just. Doesn't. Matter.
If Trump advocated for the *exact same* policies that Joe Biden (or the people running him, anyway) does, Rich would still hate him.
Robert Cook said...
"Cookie, you may wish for a world where Jews don't fight back, but the reality is different."
"There's a vast difference between "fighting back" and targeting civilian neighborhoods for all-out attacks and assaults, killing and maiming tens of thousands of children, women, the elderly, most who have nothing to do with Hamas' attack on October 07."
Got any proof? And I mean proof that isn't supplied by a Hamas friendly NGO.
Here is a fact for you Comrade. The vast majority of people killed in wars are civilian. The vast majority of those die of starvation.
Tulsi is easy on the eyes, Kamala not so much. Tulsi tanked Kamala’s 2020 run. Replaying that debate performance will help Trump.
Blogger Robert Cook said
I've never been impressed by Harris, but I haven't heard of any documented "radicalism" or unusual degree of incapability on her part. On the other hand, Trump, the "business genius," has a long history overstuffed with failed businesses and bankruptcies. Moreover, how can you know Harris cannot win except by cheating, (cheating that you persist in ascribing to Biden's win in 2020, despite there still being no available proof of such cheating)? It's obvious Trump and his confederates (in and out of Congress and the Supreme Court) are at least somewhat worried Harris can win--a fear they had not at all with Biden. Maybe they are being more realistic than you are.
I've voted Green Party since 1996, reflecting my disdain for both parties and their candidates in those years. However, I will vote for Harris this fall, for one reason and at least one certain fact: She is NOT TRUMP, and I'm voting the NOT TRUMP ticket.
7/24/24, 11:10 AM
———————
McCormick in PA is running an effective ad against Bob Casey for his endorsement of Harris. The bulk of the ad is video of Harris endorsing the following:
A ban on fracking
Single payer healthcare
Decriminalization of illegal immigration
Mandatory gun buy backs
Reduction in meat consumption
Defunding the police
As a Senator she was to the left of Bernie Sanders
Blogger Rich said...
Trump said Harris “won’t be too tough” to beat, pointing out that her previous presidential campaign in 2020 was unsuccessful
I know someone else whose 2020 presidential campaign was unsuccessful
Worth noting that Hillary Clinton got nearly 3 million more votes than Trump in 2016, just not in the right places to win the electoral college and election. The point being that enough Americans will vote for a woman for president for her to win.
Trump didn’t have the baggage that he has now, and is now the retread candidate, while Harris doesn’t have Clinton’s baggage and is the new candidate.
7/24/24, 11:31 AM
—————————
The popular vote canard is ridiculous.
Logistical issues aside, if Presidential elections were based on nationwide popular vote then the campaigns would base their strategies. How many Californian Republicans sit out elections because their votes don’t count? How many would vote if their votes did count?
In the 1960 World Series the Yankees out scored the Pirates by something like 25 runs. All of the Pirate wins were by a single run. Guess who won the Series?
They are putting the fix in. These are the support columns.
And why shouldn't they. We let them get away with the last one. They want to see what we'll let them get away with. And they're right to do it.
We're gonna let them do it. We deserve this. Our forefathers would abhor us.
D.D. Driver: "@Drago Way to miss the point entirely."
No, I didn't. You don't like the actual details, because you are a business buffoon pounding away on his keyboard keys without a single solitary byte of understanding what occurred with gaming over the last 40 years. Your ignorance is your own fault so you should probably stop going Full Dunning Kruger in exposing it.
D.D.Driver: " The argument was made that Trumps bankruptcy record is proof that he is [check notes] a HALL OF FAME businessman.
Hall of Fame."
You never answered the questions made of you, because you can't. Because you are business ignoramus. Some of those questions include how many businesses has Trump owned over the decades? How did those 4 casino bankruptcies turn out? What was the end result after coming out or reorganization? What percent of the total Trump business portfolio did the casino's represent? I could go on but your brain is probably already bleeding out.
D.D.Driver: "Do you agree, Drago? Does forcing casinos to go tits up demonstrate business savvy?"
I have already shown above how that characterization of yours is moronic. Yet you continue with it. How stupid are you really?
D.D. Driver: "How many CEO's would get a chance to run a fourth company after running three other one's into the ground?"
Is this where I need to list quotes from 1 superstar business person after another explaining how their failures taught them more than their successes and that risking starting new businesses inevitably leads to failures along with successes. Again, you are an idiot and you've clearly never come close to starting and running a new venture in risky markets and economic times.
D.D.Driver: "The only reason Trump was able to do it was because of his family money. No other CEO would get that chance."
LOL
Such BS.
You're pathetic, in your very own special way. Now just go back to sleep dummy while others risk capital and reputation to try and advance the business of the nation. But do keep the bleating down, won't you? Some people are trying to work around here....
LLR-democratical Rich: "Worth noting that Hillary Clinton got nearly 3 million more votes than Trump in 2016, just not in the right places to win the electoral college and election."
AMDG: "The popular vote canard is ridiculous."
Quite so.
And the ONLY people that ever mention the popular vote in a national election as if it were meaningful are leftists/dems.
Ergo Althouse blog LLR-democratical Brigade member Rich is a leftist dem.
QED
Not that we didn't already know that as we did with Chuck and as we know with lonejustice.
The Harris honeymoon will be over soon. Trump hasn't even started on her yet.
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