August 4, 2022
"The violent eruption of Tonga's Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano injected an unprecedented amount of water directly into the stratosphere — and the vapor will stay there for years, likely affecting the Earth's climate patterns..."
"... NASA scientists say.
The massive amount of water vapor is roughly 10% of the normal amount of vapor found in the stratosphere, equaling more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools.... Earlier large volcanic eruptions have affected climate, but they usually cool temperatures, because they send light-scattering aerosols into the stratosphere. Those aerosols act as a sort of massive layer of sunscreen. But since water vapor traps heat, the Tongan eruption could temporarily raise temperatures a bit, the researchers said.
It normally takes around 2-3 years for sulfate aerosols from volcanoes to fall out of the stratosphere. But the water from the Jan. 15 eruption could take 5-10 years to fully dissipate.
Given that timeframe and the extraordinary amount of water involved, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai 'may be the first volcanic eruption observed to impact climate not through surface cooling caused by volcanic sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming,' the researchers said in their paper...."
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76 comments:
Is Dr. Fauci involved?
The weather can take care of itself. It’s not nice to fool with Mother Nature. And other cliches come to mind.
Hunga Tonga-Hunga, the new existential crisis. The new emergency.
Now, that's an inconvenient truth! An unexpected complication! Who's up now for destroying our economy with net-zero, when Hunga Tonga-Hunga has already got the climate power?
Don't be a volcanic denier. Our pitiful solar panels and wind turbines are as nothing compared to the climate power of Hunga Tonga-Hunga!
Lord Almighty
Feel my temperature rising
Higher, higher
It's burning through to my soul . . .
I'm just a Hunga Tonga-Hunga burning love
Just a Hunga Tonga-Hunga burning love . . .
The critics of mainstream global warming/climate change theories and policies have long noted that prior climate models didn't account for clouds, water vapor, the random contributions of volcanos, etc.
"The science is settled. We have just 10 years before it's too late." -- Al Gore circa 25 years ago
NEVER trust absolute pronouncements about science, be they climate or be they COVID. Demand nuance.
The greenies and Deep State try to control "climate" and "global warming", but in the meantime nature is at work in terms of the sun, volcanoes, earthquakes, etc. We can't control any of these phenomena and they have a greater impact than anything dictated in DC. We can't even produce enough wind...where does that come from btw? Certainly not enough electricity for the conversion to all electric vehicles.
If only we knew about this in advance! Al Gore could have thrown AOC into the volcano in order to appease the Gods and stop the eruption.
We also need to amend that Inflation Reduction Act and add billions for volcano control.
Seriously, the NPR Left is thinking that they have to redouble their efforts on solar and wind in order to account for volcanoes.
something happened... It COULD BE BAD! and will PROBABLY cause GLOBAL WARMING!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Color me unimpressed.. Actually, color me saying BULL SH*T
Never seen anything like it is an opportunity to understand atmospheric physics better. Any increase in global temperatures will only likely effect the low IQ people in the equatorial shit hole countries, so no one cares. I'm surprised they haven't blamed the Killer Kentucky flooding on it.
"could...could...may..."
Sorry. Post-Covid, I quit reading "science" articles when they start using these words. Facts only, please.
So you're telling me that natural causes can cause changes in the Earth's climate?
Who knew?
NPR reports, in "Tonga's volcano sent tons of water into the stratosphere. That could warm the Earth."
I certainly hope so. Al Gore promised I’d have pineapple and banana trees growing in my yard by now, and I’m getting tired of waiting.
The climate patterns are the climate patterns already. It includes the volcano.
roughly 10% of the normal amount of vapor found in the stratosphere, equaling more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools....
serious question, how much water vapor IS there in the stratosphere?
Oh, that's right about 600,000 Olympic-size swimming pools
How much water vapor IS there, in the lower atmosphere?
At any one instant, the Earth's atmosphere contains 37.5 million-billion gallons of water vapor - enough to cover the entire surface of the planet with 1 inch of rain if condensed.
That's about 56,818,181,819 Olympic sized pools.. That 56 BILLION Olympic sized pools
(https://healingpicks.com/how-many-gallons-are-in-an-olympic-size-swimming-pool/ says 660,000 gallons per pool... Check my math; PLEASE!)
these individual water molecules.. floating around at 8 miles high... How much infrared are THEY going to affect? Anyone? Anyone at all?
Let's find out! Interesting experiment. Let's. find out exactly what they know. They should lay down their markers right now with their models and tell us what they think is going to happen in detail. My bet is that they won't, but that's only a bet. If they call what happens, it would certainly help their credibility.
Wait. What? I'm told only we do that stuff.
Here's a fun line, from today's reading..
But since water vapor traps heat, the Tongan eruption could temporarily raise temperatures a bit, the researchers said.
Saw lots (and Lots (and LOTS!) of the words "could", "might", "possibly" in today's reading..
BUT, my favorite word phrase is DEFINITELY "temporarily raise temperatures a bit"
"...it's more important than ever to fight climate change..."
"The massive amount of water vapor is roughly 10% of the normal amount of vapor found in the stratosphere, equaling more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools"
How does describing one thing that no one understands with another help?
Makes man made CO2 "pollution" seem meaningless. Wait, it is.
“According to the IPCC’s own data, man-made CO2 output levels are 3% of 3% of 0.1% of the total Earth’s atmosphere. That’s 0.000009%! That’s 9 millionths.”
What a dumb name for a volcano.
Word has it Greta Thurnberg is headed to the volcano's remnants to give what's left a piece of her mind. How dare it!
Water is a greenhouse gas! We must pass legislation to regulate volcanoes!
What they're leaving out is that it also might cool the Earth. Cloud cover is one of the big acknowledged unknowns in climate modeling. They don't know whether clouds heat the Earth through increased water vapor or cool the Earth by shielding it from the Sun.
"What a dumb name for a volcano."
LOL. It's culturally insensitive, but I laughed a lot. Reminded me of:
"Hungadunga. Accent on the diphthonic, not the penultimate."/"Care of Hungadunga, Hungadunga, Hungadunga and McCormick . . . "/"You left out a Hungadunga. You left out the most important Hungadunga."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2LqmcjIeMU
But what about cloud formation from all that water? It could also cool off the Earth.
When things are really complicated, trust NPR to simplify by giving one side of the story.
By the way, I don't see the hand of man in the Hungadunga volcano.
Unprecedented?
Stereotypically, isn't pearl clutching and the fainting couch preceded by "suffering the vapors"?
The American Chemical Society points out that predicting climate changes from water vapor changes is complicated:
“There is also a possibility that adding more water vapor to the atmosphere could produce a negative feedback effect. This could happen if more water vapor leads to more cloud formation. Clouds reflect sunlight and reduce the amount of energy that reaches the Earth’s surface to warm it. If the amount of solar warming decreases, then the temperature of the Earth would decrease. In that case, the effect of adding more water vapor would be cooling rather than warming. But cloud cover does mean more condensed water in the atmosphere, making for a stronger greenhouse effect than non-condensed water vapor alone – it is warmer on a cloudy winter day than on a clear one. Thus the possible positive and negative feedbacks associated with increased water vapor and cloud formation can cancel one another out and complicate matters. The actual balance between them is an active area of climate science research.”
Other hedges:
‘Unprecedented’: presumably compared to observed eruptions, not every eruption.
A lot of water vapor injected into stratosphere? OK. What is the volume of aerosols from this eruption compared to observed eruptions? Lower, average, or higher? NPR does not discuss.
‘Unprecedented’ later becomes ‘extraordinary’: please define scale.
A ‘normal mechanism’ that is ‘so reliable’ is transformed into loaded word ‘heartbeat’.
Of course the Tonga volcanic eruption is why we can’t have cheaper energy. There seems to be a connection between climate alarmists and self-flagellation.
Stephen makes the point that the greenies may have created global warming by clearing the air of clouds. I've noticed over the years that the sky has been clear much more often than say in the 60's or 70's. Cloudy skies reduce the impact of the sun.
As a greenhouse gas, water vapor is vastly worse than carbon dioxide. But water vapor formed into clouds reflects solar energy (i.e., sunlight) away from the earth’s surface and back out to space, as anyone knows who has flown in an airplane above a dense cloud layer. Obviously the latter impact, called the albedo effect, will cause cooling.
So which effect will predominate? If we read no more stories about this volcano in conjunction with global climate change, then it’s the albedo effect that dominates.
Any minute now, because of this volcano’s temper tantrum, the greenies will be pronouncing that we need to speed up the process of getting rid of all privately owned vehicles to please Gaia before it is too late. Gaia is p*ssed off big time! John Kerry has just booked more flights around the world in his personal jet to convince world leaders WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING! ANYTHING! BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!!!
Of course the climate "experts" will say this make the "emergency" more severe.
I don't think "unprecedented" means what they think it does. It's happened before and at larger scale.
Unprecedented is the new inconceivable.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OHVjs4aobqs
Get the UN to ban volcanoes.
Is there any science more inexact than 'Climate Science'? There isn't. And that's why any contrary science is not even allowed to be shown or discussed.
Get the Congress to pass a law banning volcanoes.
Amadeus 48 said...
But what about cloud formation from all that water?
It's NOT all that much water. To the extent that is Anything (which it "could be"..);
The issue is that this water has been injected up into the stratosphere, WAY above the troposphere (where clouds live). Since it's 30 miles high, it WON'T make clouds, WON'T precipitate, WON'T defuse quickly. It will be up there, doing what ever it does, for a long time..
HOWEVER; it's NOT going to DO much.. Even according to the chicken little's at NPR..
It "might" increase temperatures a bit... a VERY SMALL bit.
The Only thing that makes this a story, is the 'Man bites Dog' aspect of a volcano Not cooling the planet.. That and the fact that NPR has to act like global warmingism is real
38.1 billion gallons. That's equal to 16-hours over Niagra falls. It's just under 3-hours of total US fresh water production. That's about 100-days of coffee consumption in the US.
The SO2 aerosol content was like 1% of the Mt Pinatubo eruption. The ocean acted like an air scrubber
Brad's pilot has filed a flight plan.
Excellent comments all. I share the delight of “gilbar” @ 6:19 that Science is now able to provide greater accuracy and precision to our understanding of the atmosphere through the use of terms like “a bit.” We have been too long in thrall to quantification, busily putting numbers on things. Much better if we just wave our hands and speak of the sky gods and their current moods.
“Could…might…maybe…a bit…”. Lovely stuff.
I took an unprecedented and extraordinary fart this morning. The coming months could be the warmest the planet has seen since last year.
Finally, climate change that we can measure and prove - and it didn't come from a tail pipe, mechanical or bovine.
gilbar asked, "serious question, how much water vapor IS there in the stratosphere?"
More important, how much water vapor is there in an olympic sized pool?
Dire.
Another example of why "man-made climate change" is insignificant?
Marcus
THEOLDMAN
We need volcano control to save the planet from climate change. I'd say throw 1 million climate scientist/activists into the volcano to appease Earth god and stop this existential threat to the Atmosphere gods.
How much nitrogen did it put out? That's the realll
question.
People are freaking out 400ppm of co2 and ignoring the 780,000ppm of nitrogen.
We're all going to die!
John LGBTQBNY Henry
This isn't the volcano we're looking for. We want one more like Mount Tambora which made 1816 the Year Without A Summer. It was bad for agriculture and people, but it certainly would do a lot to offset global warming.
Of course.
We're all going to die.
In twenty years we'll all be begging for global 'warming' as the planet enters a natural cooling cycle and we can't grow enough food.
But there are no government grants to study that so let's all be totally unprepared.
'Unexpectedly' will be the most used word in 2050...
'Any increase in global temperatures will only likely effect the low IQ people in the equatorial shit hole countries, so no one cares.'
This is correct.
If they were smarter they wouldn't live in shit hole countries...
Stop with the DISINFORMATION that nature is the overwhelmingly primary cause of any climate change.
Volcanoes and sunspots and solar flares are negligible. Mankind is the greatest and only danger. Emphasis on the man. And if nature does have an impact, it is only because mankind caused the volcano eruptions and sunspots and solar flares.
Congress (well, maybe the UN) needs to act IMMEDIATELY! Stuff like this should be SO illegal!! We can't have volcanoes and other suchlike riffraff messing with our precious climate!!! (Especially volcanoes with peculiar names, do they think they're special or something?)
So you're saying global warming can be caused by forces stronger than capitalism?
"It's culturally insensitive, but I laughed a lot."
Back in 1971, the year before Nixon went to China, there was a table tennis match between the US and China held in China, probably Beijing. In my high school social studies class of that time, a particularly liberal teacher read the following story (I paraphrase).
"It is reported two US Senators, William Song and Hiram Fong, have introduced a resolution declaring the church bells in Hong Kong should ring in celebration of this historic occasion when the US team arrives in Hong Kong from China. The resolution has been named the Song-Fong Ping Pong Hong Kong Ding Dong bill."
P.S. I like Robert Marshall's culturally insensitive parody at 5:43 AM.
Those familiar with atmospheric scientist Dr Judith Curry and her blog Climate Etc know that she often posts a "Week in review – climate edition / A few things that caught my eye" article. For example,
https://judithcurry.com/2022/07/16/week-in-review-climate-edition-4/
I'll be interested to see if the NASA paper about Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai makes the cut.
Not to worry - they can just adjust the computer models slightly to account for this.
… now do volcanic eruptions on the sea floor…
For some reason I'm reminded just how desperately our government needs fear of the monkeypox virus to replace the ever-fading Covid hysteria.
Hiram Fong actually was a US Senator, the only Republican Hawaii ever sent to the Senate. He was a big promoter of immigration and terribly wrong about that.
We can only hope that the climate crazies do not take civilization down with them.
50 shades of the recurring, natural ozone hole... thinning. Her Choice, which is why the models have demonstrated no skill to do either forecasting or hindcasting. Yet the consensus elect to abort babies for social, redistributive, clinical, political, and fair weather causes in human rites.
I prefer the federal government to motivate me through greed, as done by Trump, rather than fear, as done by Biden. There is always an option to motivate me through idealism, but neither political party has tried that in my lifetime.
"LOL. It's culturally insensitive, but I laughed a lot."
That's what I do.
And thanks for the video. My turn to LOL.
Clouds are "parameterized" in the models, In other words the models exist to launder the assumptions which are used to set the control knobs; they have physics in them, but in no way are the climate models pure physics.
I note that NPR says the water vapor will stay there for years. And the NASA Study? It could take 5-10 years to dissipate.
People who rely on NPR for Science reporting are misinformed.
“ The study authors said it’s still too early to predict the exact climatic effects of the Tonga eruption.”
Wait, what? Why is it that our iron clad climate models that are being used to totally disrupt our lives cannot just tell us?
Now this is weird. Not the volcano, but the old Hangadunga joke. Only last night, while walking the dog, I was trying to recall the last partner's name.
Thanks for the fart admission Yancey! I wondered about the smell this morning . . . fits the timing perfectly.
Wherefore the next class action lawsuit progresses... per chance a fascist conspiracy of government, industry, and environmentalism.
Hexavalent chromium was determined to be extremely toxic in isolation. However, it has been observed to have a net-zero effect in the wild. Another em-pathetic apology with "benefits", a handmade tale of incomplete, insufficient characterization, and unwieldy computation.
"Why is it that our iron clad climate models that are being used to totally disrupt our lives cannot just tell us?"
They have to wait until they see what happens so they can come up with a way to explain why things happened the way they did.
The eruption is just mother earth reacting to man made climate change.
So it's still whitey's fault after all.
Let's see if I got this right. Tonga Island in the middle of the South Pacific has a volcano that put a big glob of water vapor into the stratosphere that NASA says will warm things up for years. From CERN experiments, we know this water is suspended in aerosol form. Meanwhile back at the Sun cosmic rays are sent to the Earth and when an increase in energy creates a gamma-ray flux, this causes the water aerosol particles to attach to each other to form clouds. Since clouds cool everything down, this lets the extra water vapor fight off warmth.
Climate Emergency powers now!!
"As a greenhouse gas, water vapor is vastly worse than carbon dioxide. But water vapor formed into clouds reflects solar energy (i.e., sunlight) away"
Climate work is like any good panic.
Arrhenius claimed that higher CO2 raised the heat absorbed by the air, but by the log of CO2, so it decreases in effect as concentration goes up.
That was not a big enough disaster so we had to add other effects; like that water vapor would increase also with CO2, or clouds would remain stable when water vapor increased.
The fact that all climate models together have a large variance and they don't back cast global temps accurately declare that some variables (causes) are missing.
Science is not a bulldozer that overpowers people who disagree. Science is a method of exposing truth that is obvious by experimentation.
I believe that F = MA disregarding quantum effects. I have not been convinced that high CO2 absolutely gives higher temps. There may be compensating factors with high CO2 that we have not seen yet, like an increase in cloud coverage that increases albido.
I was in tune with Althouse here. "Hungadunga, Hungadunga, Hungadunga and McCormick" was what immediately came to mind, though I will admit to not remembering the "McCormick" part.
--gpm
I learned about the Hungadunga firm about the same time I learned about their rivals--Shadrach, Meshach, Abednego, and Schwartz.
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