The one element that's in place is "A united, enthusiastic and engaged GOP base."
The other 3 are: "A deeply flawed opponent," "Decent support among independent voters," and "Third-party candidates siphoning off enough votes to allow Trump to win key states."
Walter says, "Joe Biden has never been popular, but he’s also never been as unpopular as Hillary Clinton." I'd say that Biden is more like the absence of a candidate, putting the focus on Trump's flaws. And with the virus making everything bad, the badness falls more heavily, more directly on Trump. He's presiding over what's actually happening, and one can only imagine how Biden might have handled things.
As for independents, we're told Trump trails Biden by 14 to 18 points in "the most recent national polling by Fox News, CNN and Pew."
As for third party candidates, they're less important than in 2016.
Posts
44 comments:
Expect the usual denial, poll blaming, and attacks about Biden.
Trump made his bed and now finds that people want to have a President who doesn't need to dominate the headlines every day and cannot control his social media addiction (Tweeting like he does is weird for people over 30).
People want boring and competent, and the Donald cannot sell that product as he isn't it
Poor ,poor,President Trump. All he has is a loyal base of a majority of the American voters everywhere you look.
Amy Walter is a liberal. No credibility.
The virus has not made everything bad.
Quit reading the NYT and look at primary sources for raw data.
Republican voter registration is outpacing Democratical voter registration in ALL the so-called swing states.
Florida. Ohio. North Carolina. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Minnesota. Nevada. New Mexico.
And partisan voter registration is the single best indicator as to the person's likely partisan vote.
The NYT is actively lying to you.
And all the other news sources, also.
Primary! Sources!
In the last week I've seen a few blue check 'poll' watchers asking themselves and Twitterverse: If Trump wins 'what did I miss?'
Here's what you missed, for starters:
Hillary won the popular vote by +2 yet polling that uses Hillary's turnout have Trump winning all the competitive sunbelt sates and enough of the 'rust' belt states to win reelection..AND...new voter registration since 2018 heavily favors Republicans nationwide, including most competitive states.
Conclusion: The United States in 2020 is not D+8.
Using approval metrics, Trump has made significant gains amongst several key voting demographics, including big gains with 'latinos' and smaller but significant gains amongst blacks. Over the last century, incumbents with Trump's current approval ratings have easily won reelection.
The results of the classic Are you better off than four years ago? poll question give Trump the highest approval in a century- basically since the question has been asked. Better than Reagan in 1984 by a wide margin...
Historically voters reject candidates that reject retail politics.
I could go on...
Wishful thinking this...
Joe is a horrible candidate and so is his (poorly chosen) running mate.
Enthusiasm gap is huge. Each had a “car rally” in Miami this weekend. Look up the news reports. Trump’s reportedly had 30,000 cars parading through. Joe’s had 15.
Not 15,000, but 15.
And then there are the numbers from the “swing states”. Polling (as skewed as it is for political purposes) has trump doing better than 2016. I’ll try to link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/sunshinest8sam/status/1315120039432007680
When one sees 0-50 people showing up for Biden, and tens of thousands for Trump, how could the polls be at all informative?
Practically everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him in 2020. A significant portion of those voters have been irked because Trump does not wear a mask, talks too much during coronavirus press conferences, and so forth. However, practically all those voters will come around and vote for him after all.
A significant number of Black men sat out the 2016 election. Will they vote now in 2020? If so, for whom?
No two Presidential campaigns are actually alike. The people, the issues, never the same. Well, other than Adalai Stevenson one supposes.
The Democrats in 2020 have put together a much more effective campaign than in 2016. And with a less impressive set of candidates. It is an accomplishment of note, if not of merit.
Pachy
EhH, those are her 4 main elements, not Trump’s. It looks to me like he has 2 of them (you hit on the second—Biden is a deeply flawed opponent). How did she miss that? Her fixation on Hillary's unlikeability, as though that were the only flaw that mattered?
A third party that draws from the left sounds made-up because she felt like she needed a fourth thing. Nobody includes that in their strategy unless the third party already exists (and even then, they tend to collapse down the stretch).
As for independents, maybe. But then again, media events are full of “independents” who somehow manage to also be Democratic activists. I question their ability to identify independents.
What happens if a candidate has a rally and no one comes? That apparently happened yesterday for Biden and Harris n AZ. How do they expect to flip the state, if they can’t get any of their party faithful out to political rallies?
Is someone "being like the absence of a candidate" a "deeply flawed opponent"?
Some might say so. The real problem with Joe is that he's a pig in a poke. We don't know what we are going to get ---the "voters don't deserve to know" Joe's agenda re vote packing. I really think that if Biden is elected there'll be a left wing sort of Politburo running the Oval Office. Joe certainly isn't mentally around to do the job, and with his health may soon not be physically around. Dr. Jill and the "committee of lefties" will run the Oval Office until Kamala--and the committee of lefties steps in and takes over.
Yup--that's a deeply flawed opponent.
unfortunately, it DOES look like President Trump will not be reelected in 2020
Since this election is going to have The HIGHEST TURNOUT IN HISTORY (well over 100%),
i don't think he has a chance
Students living at home are going to vote absentee (in the parents district as well as the schools)
People that moved to Florida are going to vote there (as well as back in Vermont)
People that have NO INTEREST in voting, are going to vote (whether they know it or not)
Finally; the dead, the dogs, and the goldfish will all be voting and they'll be voting for Biden
He's presiding over what's actually happening, and one can only imagine how Biden might have handled things.
We can imagine! It would be one of two things. it would ether be treated just like H1N1 as in no big deal, no coverage and no news or he would have waited way longer than Trump and then did a lot of unconstitutional nation wide shutdowns until there was only the ultra wealthy and welfare recipients left.
I believe the Rallies. I believe the car parades, boat parades, and just walking parades a HELL of a lot more than I trust unreliable polls that are always wrong.
Biden is the funny Uncle who lives in a basement. He is not unpopular as Hillary!! because he's kept from the public. His gaffes -- such as telling voters they don't have the right to know about whether he might pack the court -- are kept carefully screened from the Public.
It's worth asking individual polls what they've done to correct for the problems in 2016. Maybe they are closer to correct this time. It's hard to know in advance without knowing how they've fixed things.'
The Biden/Harris bus rally pulled up in Arizona, and NOBODY showed up!! There's your poll.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/kind-boring-arizona-reporter-stunned-no-one-shows-campaign-event-joe-biden-kamala-harris-video/
Is Biden a 'deeply flawed candidate'?
What might these documents show? Will they show Biden abusing his power as VP?
"Documents are being released at a level now that nobody’s ever seen before. Things that nobody thought were going to get released are now being released,” Trump told Bartiromo's “Sunday Morning Futures” show.
“Wait until you see what’s coming out. Breathtaking,” the president said, adding that people who have already seen the documents being released "are shocked."
“We have found things that nobody can believe,” he said.
For comprehensive analysis of election data read Robert Barnes @Barnes_Law. His only flaw is he does not take into account the mail-in ballot fraud which will essentially void this election.
It will be a (at least) 40 state Trump landslide. I will be drinking non-alcoholic Liberal tears the night of November 3rd.
THEOLDMAN
Stay away from the NYTimes and crack addicts. They both lie to get what they want.
Biden is not "a deeply-flawed" opponent? Bwhaahhahaha
Joe Biden was never as unpopular as Hillary Clinton ≠ Joe Biden is not deeply flawed, no matter what Amy says.
The only third parties in Montana this time are Libertarians. The GOP tried (clumsily as usual) to get the Greens on the ballot but were caught out by the courts. Oof.
Good thing we don't matter!
Yet according to Gallup, 57% expect Trump to be re-elected and only 40% China Joe will be elected and 56% say they are better off than they were 4 years ago. Reagan, just before his landslide win, could only muster 44%. Methinks the lying, enemedia is going down big-time on November 3rd. FYI, there is no Democratic Party, just the MSMS Party.
Mark: People want boring and competent, and the Donald cannot sell that product as he isn't it.
Mark may be right, unfortunately. It’s bizarre to think that America will reward the left for its relentless petulance, but there we are.
Joe Biden is the most “deeply flawed” candidate in my lifetime. Demented, corrupt, indecisive, incompetent, morally bankrupt.
If I had to bet now, I'd bet even money on Biden. In part because Trump hasn't been doing well in the Rasmussen approval polls and in part because he isn't HRC.
But we'll most likely see another October surprise or two that could mix things up. It was about this time in 2016 that Trump's "grab them by the pussy" tape came to light. And it was October 28 that Comey reopened his investigation into HRC's emails.
I, for one, regret for the first time in 20 years that I no longer live in Baltimore. There I could vote any number of times for Trump. And while the votes would probably be discarded at the precinct level, and votes for Biden substituted for my Trump votes, I'd at least have the satisfaction of leaving that shithole again the day after.
One word: Seniors. Without them, Trump is toast.
The fact that Amy Walter is willing to claim that Trump does NOT have "A deeply flawed opponent" shows that the rest of her analysis is going to be garbage, too.
Trump used all those things in 2016.
This is 2020, where he has 4 years of results.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-economy-mainstream-media-andy-puzder
Released two weeks ago, the Census Bureau’s report on “Income and Poverty in the United States” for 2019 clearly shows that, pre-pandemic, President Trump’s economic success blew past that of any other presidency.
First, the Census Bureau reported that real median household income grew to $68,703 in 2019, an impressive 6.8% increase over 2018. It was the largest one-year increase in median income on record going back to 1967. It was also 45 percent more growth in a single year ($4,379) than Obama/Biden produced in their entire 8 years in office ($3,021).
Vote for Biden, because Democrats love to burn cities, destroy businesses, and tell you want to do with your life!
So long as the polls keep on reporting that people think Trump is going to win, I'm going to keep on believing that that is the real measure of how people are going to vote
Blogger Earnest Prole said...
One word: Seniors. Without them, Trump is toast.
You could have put that as "People who know history" or "those that can identify which candidate said what. "
Bruce Hayden said...
What happens if a candidate has a rally and no one comes? That apparently happened yesterday for Biden and Harris n AZ. How do they expect to flip the state, if they can’t get any of their party faithful out to political rallies?
Vote harvesting.
Obviously fraudulent results announced loudly on election night.
Declarations of victory.
Censorship of all republican voices.
For the polls to be right, there would have to be a massive wave of either new Democratic voters or 2016 Trump voters who are switching. Where are they? If there really were a lot of these people, there would articles and profiles all over the place, presenting these people as courageous heroes. Instead they're nowhere to be seen. Where are the shy Biden voters?
https://pjmedia.com/election/matt-margolis/2020/10/10/freudian-slip-this-might-be-bidens-funniest-gaffe-yet-n1034528
If the sainted "Independents" and going to vote for Joe Biden they're even stupider than I imagined. Biden's going to pack the court, he insults the voters, he signed up for the Sanders radical agenda, he supports antifa, etc. I guess the "independents" somehow imagine that no matter what Biden says or how corrupt he is, he's still "good ol' Joe" who won't do anything radical or bad.
They'll soon find out differently.
Normally in most campaign's the candidate or his VP "attack dog" has to engage in negative campaigning to point out the flaws in the other candidate. Biden doesn't have to do that, because the DNC Mainstream Media is acting as if they are part of the Democrat "Biden2020" campaign. They're waging a negative campaign against Trump 24/7. Meanwhile, they are covering for Biden and smothering every Trump attack on him. Chris Wallace and Page wouldn't even ask Biden about Packing the SCOTUS, until Pence brought it up!
So, Biden just sits back with his mask on, saying nothing, taking no hostile questions, making almost no speeches. Its incredible. Trump has to fight the entire media AND the Democrats. And needless to say, the Republicans Senators are worthless.
I couldn't vote for a 78 y.o. senile man who can't speak without making a gaffe, and "puts a Lid" on his campaigning at 10 AM. But the American people just don't seem to care. You see the seem sheep-like acceptance over CV-19. Asshole D Governors lockdown everything, destroy people's lives and business and the sheep just go baa, baa. Its obvious that in many blue states, that Democracy is dead. you could just get rid of the State Legislatures and let the D GOvernor's rule by Fiat, and DUMBO Democrat voters would accept it.
Vote fraud is my chief concern this year. "Harvesting" is part of it but the USPS seems to be an arm of the DNC as well. We have our absentee ballots this year but will vote in person on the 27th, the first day of "early voting" in AZ. It's actually the 26th but we will be driving back from CA that day. Visiting family. I don't want to be in LA close to the election.
Dumb Lefty Mark: "Expect the usual denial, poll blaming, and attacks about Biden."
In 2016 I did alot of denying, I blamed polls, and I attacked Hillary.
It worked out pretty well.
I’d say the deck is stacked against Trump. He is going to get swatted. Wait till people start to focus on Biden, if he wins. The shock and disgust at this awful parasite may be overwhelming. Queen Nancy is already moving to shut him down and step on him. So then we get Kamala...for a while. If she doesn’t behave, Nancy is ready to flits her, too.
Yup. We are into insect politics. Trump, Biden, Kamala— they are all as dispensable as the fly that landed on Pence.
The polls are worse this time than they were in 2016.
Reporting generally is worse than it was in 2016.
The idea that Americans will vote for a dementia patient they're ready to replace with a heels-up authoritarian is offensive.
Americans are very good at sniffing out bull shit and we all know we are being kept like mushrooms.
Just fucking stop it with the whinging about the coming Democratical fraud.
They will have to cheat in a dozen states - effectively - and in numbers that will surprise the cheaters.
Allan Lichtman, who predicted Trump's 2016 win, says Biden will win in 2016. The covid economic downturn and the riots tipped his "13 keys" model, from a Trump win to a Biden win. Of course, Lichtman's a Democrat - he even tried to become a Democratic senatorial candidate - but you don't need a political scientist or a predictive model to realize that what's happened this year has vastly improved Biden's chances.
"Joe Biden has never been popular, but he’s also never been as unpopular as Hillary Clinton." I'd say that Biden is more like the absence of a candidate, putting the focus on Trump's flaws.
There are two problems here. The first is that Althouse — and presumably many other women like her — find it easy to let themselves be focused on Trump’s flaws and not his solid accomplishments. The second is that Trump should not be running against an empty face mask like Joe Biden. He should be running against the whole Democrat Party. Run against the mayors of Portland and Kenosha and New York and Washington, DC. Run against governors like Tim Walz, Tim Evers, Kate Brown, Inslee, Cuomo, and Murphy. Run against Nancy Pelosi. He has four weeks left to tie rioters rampaging through suburban neighborhoods to the Democrats who encourage them. Do it! Just win, Baby.
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