“The idea that people lie, it’s an interesting theory, and it’s not like it’s completely off-the-wall,” said David Winston, a pollster who works with congressional Republicans. “But it’s obviously a very complicated thing to try to prove because what do you do? Ask them, ‘Are you lying?’”...I question that last parenthetical — Trump voters are "a group that tends to be uniquely expressive and adamant about their support for the president." That's denying the issue the polling experts were talking about! Some Trump voters are vocal, and among the vocal Trump supporters there's a tendency to be expressive. But the point is that there are other people — who knows how many? — who believe there are social and economic consequences to being seen as a Trump supporter. That's a different group, and it's a group defined by its tendency not to be expressive about supporting Trump.
If voters were indeed afraid of voicing their support for the president, Mr. Winston said [there would be] an uptick in the percentage of undecided voters rather than a rise in support for Mr. Biden....
While the effects of a hidden Trump vote are certainly overstated by the president’s allies, that does not mean that no evidence exists that polls are missing some of his voters. A small percentage of his support is probably being undercounted, and has been in the past, public opinion experts said. And in states like North Carolina, where the margin of victory could be narrow, the undercount could make a difference between a poll being right or wrong.
[Neil Newhouse, a Republican who led Mitt Romney’s polling in 2012, said that in 2016] Mr. Trump tended to score 2 or 3 points higher in phone surveys when respondents were asked to press a button to record their preferences rather than talk to a live person. In postelection polling, when he asked people if they had ever been unwilling to talk about their vote, 35 percent of Trump voters said yes. And they tended to be women from Democratic-leaning counties.
Mr. Newhouse has picked up further evidence of such reluctance recently. In polls he conducted late last month in North Carolina and Iowa, he found that one-quarter to one-third of voters answered “yes” when asked if they knew someone who is voting for Mr. Trump but would not say so to anyone but their closest friends.
“This totally confirms the notion of ‘shy Trump voters,’” Mr. Newhouse said. But, he added, if polls are undercounting some Trump voters — a group that tends to be uniquely expressive and adamant about their support for the president — no one can say by how much....
Why was that parenthetical thrown in? I think it's because the NYT wants to give its readers the comfort of thinking Trump is on a losing path. The article seems to have been written with the idea of debunking the notion that there's a big hidden Trump vote. Just tell the story straight!
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Democrats control large corporations, the media, k-12 education, and universities.
You cannot get hired at these places if you say the wrong things or support the wrong people.
They are monolithic in their support for the democrat party. There are few tenured holdouts and they have learned to keep their mouth closed.
This is how the NAZI's operated.
It is effective in suppressing political opposition.
I can only say that as a Trump voter, I never answer questions from pollsters. My Lefty friends, OTOH, never shut up about their political views. Ergo I think thhere is a bias in the polls based on who responds. Anecdotal, but I believe it is true.
This is in addition to the international bias of oversampling Biden voters and undersampling Trump voters that I believe is going on. Remember that one of Panetta's emails that was hacked and then released in 2016 was on exactly this subject.
It isn't the toxicity of Trump that forces people to be silent about their vote. It's the toxicity, mendacity and evil of the left. Doing anything that opposes the agenda of the SJW's will get you fired, doxxed, firebombed or worse.
I don't believe the shy Trump voting block that lies to pollsters makes much difference in polling. I do believe pollsters have left bias in their methodologies AND in their turnout assumptions.
I suspect, just like the media pollsters lean left, prefer polls that favor Democrats and are also afraid of being statistical outliers, even throwing out polls favorable to Republicans because they don't follow the pack...
Add it all up and they're pretty shit...
It's not Trump that's toxic; it's the people around you who HATE Trump. Democrats are haters.
The NYT: I despise, detest, and distrust the NYT (and its little dog WaPoo, too!)
"If you ain't voting for Joe Biden, you ain't a decent person."
This is the persistent media narrative, and easily counters the arguments from these "Republican" poll experts. However, even that brief excerpt doesn't contain the real counter to the "undecided voters"- the real counter is that Trump supporters either don't answer the poll at all, or they actively lie to the pollster like I did just a few weeks back.
Liars vote for Trump. See?
Helping the media tout the glorious support of teh people for the biden-harris ticket will result in a spectacular meltdown by the Democrats and the media - BIRM - when Trump-Pence emerges bigly victorious in November.
A great number of citizens experience normal life in the United States of America. The NYT tells a different story.
Rather than showing up as undecided or Biden votes, wouldn't "shy Trump" voters mostly just decline to be polled in the first place? Why go through with the poll if you don't want to disclose your preference?
It interesting that all of these anecdotal theories are being pushed by the very same people who were disastrously wrong in 2016. My anecdote is several of my peers and family members are deliberately lying to pollsters as we live in battleground states. I asked one of my cousins why they lie to the pollsters and the response was simply, “I’m tired of my lied about, being called a racist, being condemned for being a faithful Christian, etc.”.
The MSM, and that includes Fox, are all against their lawfully elected President. The never Trumpers are all against their lawfully elected President. The totalitarian leftists groups are all against their lawfully elected President. Therefore, they are against my peers, my family and the majority of Americans.
Personally, I don’t care for any politician, as I have a skewed against the mainstream viewpoint, due to being a veteran. But, I have seen and read a great deal of how republican forms of governments are overthrown. Look no further than Venezuela.
The story has two sources- the New York Times and pollsters- who are supremely compromised by their actions over the past few years. Or in the case of the NYT- 90 years since Duranty- and they haven't let up.
Aside from that, I'm sure it's spot on.
There are no fish the ocean smaller than 3".
I know this because every day I go out in the ocean with a net and I scoop up all the fish I catch and none are smaller than 3".
Yes, as a matter of fact the holes in my net are 3" in diameter. What's your point?
It's unscientific to talk about fish my net can't catch. If my net can't catch it, it's not a fish.
The polls were so accurate in 2016, I can’t believe they aren’t accurate this year. I’m confident that Hillary! will win re-election.
There's a reason why my name doesn't appear in any of the public databases listing direct donations to specific political candidates...and that reason has been around since long before Trump.
So telling folks you are 'voting for Biden' when you intend to vote for DJT is not lieing? And the press wonders why nobody trusts them anymore? This is another tone deaf article trying to explain away the real possibility that DJT wins by a huge margin, and once again the 'experts' are wrong as f#$k.
I know, it does not fit the narrative, so it cannot possibly be so.
I'm voting for Trump in the fall, but I voted for Bernie in the primary, for fun. It felt quite wrong voting for him, although I was absolutely certain it made no difference to the outcome of the Dem primary. Then I bragged about voting for Bernie, again for fun and shock value.
Here in Austin, the Antifa grafitti of "Defund the A.P.D." on 12th Street has been resprayed to read "Fund the A.P.D." and "Refund the A.P.D." The Antifa scum tried once to respray their vile message, but within 12 hours it was back to "Fund" and "Refund." The propaganda fight is also important, and might help us avoid the riot kind of fighting.
I get polled all the time and when the Spouse is next to me, I hate it when I have to say Trump's name. Pollsters should word the questions so you can just say answer No. 1 or No. 2 or some such. Just trying to keep the peace here.
Funny he should mention Rotary though. They're pretty liberal. Probably they take on the coloring of the location, since it's a widespread international club. The one I was in was petrified of any political mention at all.
Made it kinda boring, really. I quit after one year. Ya got only so much time for this folderal.
Guy who makes his living selling polls insists polls are legit.
The article seems to have been written with the idea of debunking the notion that there's a big hidden Trump vote.
I'm 100% ok with this, actually.
Scott Adams said yesterday that he hears from people all.the.time who are in Silicon Valley and are secret Trump supporters. Just an anecdote. Another one is that no one I know would dream of answering a call from an unknown number, especially one from a faraway area code, or of answering any questions about political preferences from a stranger.
Exactly Phil314. Now count the Trump supporters that don't participate in polls. I am one, how many more are there?
People believe all sorts of crazy, tin foil hat, conspiracy stuff. That white suburban mom that lives in a blue county might just be suspicious that her answers to polling questions are being recorded and could be revealed to her friends.
It’s also about turn out. Who will get the voters motivated to actually show up?
""There are many people who are voting for Trump who are in environments where it’s politically untenable to admit it because he’s become so toxic."
There people are so effing clueless. It's not 'politically untenable' because he's 'toxic'. We just don't want to put up with your brown shirt tactics.
Tom Bradley ran for CA governor in '82 and '86. I forget which year it happened (maybe both), but the polls had him winning by a comfortable margin.
When the votes were counted he lost both times to his Republican opponent. The phenomena was dubbed "The Bradley Effect."
https://politicaldictionary.com/words/bradley-effect/
When poled, voters claimed to be voting for him. When they actually got into the voting booth, far fewer pulled the lever for the black liberal from LA.
I don't think I'm the only one who would lie to a pollster on this. It's strategery, man.
It would be interesting to see a location break-out of the numbers, in terms of where Trump reluctance in poll response seems more prevalent. You'd assume that the shy Trump voters would be more likely to keep their opinions to themselves in the Bluer areas of Blue states, or even in Blue cities in Red states, but the key would be how prevalent the shy poll respondents look to be in Purple states, especially the ones which went for Trump in 2016, but which now show polls trending toward Biden.
“While the effects of a hidden Trump vote are certainly overstated by the president’s allies,”
Wow. Must be nice to know stuff for sure. It’s almost like a relegion.
"— no one can say by how much..”
Can’t know how much, but they can be certain. It’s amazing this New York Times.
I bet there are a lot of people, including many Blacks, who not only are lying now, but will maintain the lie long after they vote for Trump. It's just not worth enduring the abuse from crazy people, and you will probably be materially harmed for it in some circles. The undecideds that Biden is picking up were always going to vote Democrat, they just know who for now.
I never tell pollsters the candidate I support. The opposite.
Maybe the guy who led Romney's polling isn't the best with interpreting polls or human behavior.
Based on a rather curious outdated binary approach to human society, ie there are two categories yes-Trump and no-Trump, the first is his voters the second will vote for the opponent.
Few issues stand out: One, Newhouse conflates a Trump supporter with those who may vote for Trump. Someone may intend to vote for Trump, and not like him. So of course won't be expressive for social and emotional and psychological reasons.
Two, given the tendency of media to be anti-Trump, those who for reasons of explicit or resigned support probably are more than likely to lie to a pollster for the express purpose of disrupting the polls.
Three, conspiracy theories are outlandish but given the way our technology completely undermines any sense of actual privacy, people don't trust that polls are actually private, so to preserve self-security they could lie to pollsters (not unlike how someone in East Germany might have lied to media)
Who's to say what society is really leaning toward but the polls themselves are mostly meaningless in light of all this, but the media and pollsters above all can't allow that idea to go unopposed.
Of course there is no evidence that Trump voters are uniquely expressive and adamant in their support. The writer throws this in because the NYT wants everyone to believe the Trump supporters are "mind numbed robots" who mindlessly support anything Trump does. As opposed to Y'know Democrats, and Biden supporters, who are free-thinking independents who look with healthy skepticism at every side. LOL!
If there are any political mind numbed robots in the USA - it'd be black folks that vote 90-10 Democrat no matter what. Or the average Democrat voter who didn't seem to care WHO the D's nominated, or that the primaries were more or less cancelled in mid-March. Biden won super Tuesday, everyone then bowed out, and Biden was on his way to his Coronation. And not a peep from the so-called Bernie Bros.
you get the impression with Democrats, that if they simply got rid of the primaries all together and had the party bosses pick the leaders, they'd be A-OK with it.
The Shy Trump voter is not myth, its a fact. I know several at work. Whether they would lie to a pollster, I don't know.
"There are many people who are voting for Trump who are in environments where it’s politically untenable to admit it because he’s become so toxic."
Is it that Trump is toxic or that the environment is? To ask the question is to answer it.
Again, any poll that shows more than a 5% difference nationwide, or in the deciding states, is wrong.
Also, the only interesting poll question is "who did you vote for in the last election (or party) and who are voting for this election (party).
As stated frequently, I've yet to find a actual 2016 Trump voter who's switching his/her vote. Plenty of Hilary voters who might have occasionally voted for a republican senate candidate or something and who are voting Biden, but not an actual 2016 Trump voter changing sides.
If I were to be polled, I promise I would lie.
I would be an LLR who absolutely loves Caramel Harris and thinks Joe Biden has all his marbles.
I would love that Joe Biden has hairy legs and can do more pushups than you, you dog faced pony soldier.
I am voting by mail and in-person because Caramel/Joe are going to make America socialist again.
You'll notice that in the blue states, the Democrats just ACCEPT every decision made by the Governor. If the Gov locks everything down - OK With them. Gov mandates masks - OK with them. Gov closes schools - OK with them. Gov does the opposite - OK with them. Even the Democrat businessmen who are being bankrupt don't utter a peep.
Democrats just go baa,baa,baa & follow the leader.
I was surprised when Trump won in 2016. Not shocked, not "I can't believe this, how could this happen?" - I just went into election night believing Hillary Clinton would win, then said, Wow. That really did happen.
(I'd bought plenty of booze that day. I went into the election telling myself that whoever won, I would console myself that at least it wasn't the other.)
So maybe, for symmetry, Trump will lose and I'll be surprised again.
But I do think a lot of people who disapprove of Trump will vote for him anyway because most of the left has gone so completely batshit insane, and those who haven't are seen as enablers to those who have.
Right now I'm just hoping against expectation that whatever the result, it's clear-cut enough that it doesn't lead to protracted legal wrangling and 40+% of the country feeling they've been cheated out of the victory they so clearly deserved. I could see a squeaker where the Democrats magically keep finding ballots til they're over the bar; or one where the national narrative is that Republicans kept black people from the polls.
Also I hope that the winner gets more popular votes than the loser, even though that's not how victory is defined. If we have one more EC/popular vote disagreement anytime soon, as seems likely, that's pretty much the end of the Electoral College, which I think is worth keeping.
There are thousands of people tweeting how disappointed they are that the wrong Trump died yesterday.
Yep, no reason to lie about supporting him. These are the good people, compassionate and caring who would wish you dead for you politics, and Trump is the toxic one? Hiding your support for Trump is probably the default position for most of us, unless we are with people we trust.
It seems probable, based on the enthusiasm shown at Trump rallies before the previous presidential election, and my own impression, that Trump supporters tend to be, and enjoy being, out, loud, and proud, but they have lately seen the danger in that, and have maybe experienced it. I think they’ll be happy to let Trump be outspoken and bold for them this time, while themselves keeping silent and voting R.
Undocumented Trump voters has a nice echo.
The disparity between polls and reality has less to do with cryptic Republicans and more to do with the absurd weighting methods pollsters use. I cannot think of a reason that, instead of making assumptions about the composition of the electorate and diddling their results accordingly, pollsters don't just poll at random. They should cast their nets and count the fish, without regard to whether the fish are the wrong size or color.
LOL Phil 314 what he said! But seriously of course you can’t prove it, because that’s the whole point. Laughing at pollsters is just a bonus.
I would assume the numbers of such people have only gone up, and by a lot, 50-100% or more. We shall see.
Let’s ask Nate Silver! And then go the other direction.
Maybe you dipshits who want people to be honest about their political leanings should have thought this through, before dragging millions of voters with your relentless “Trump is [insert ad hominem bullshit here]” 24x7x365 attacks. You’re attacking his voters by proxy.
Is Trump toxic? Or is it that anti-Trumpers have developed a well-deserved reputation for intransigence and violence?
If 1/4 to 1/3 of voters in two states say that they know someone who is voting for Trump but won't tell it to anyone but their closest friends, that strongly implies a huge undercounting of Trump support by polls in those states. Not 2 or 3 percent. Significantly higher than that. And there's no reason to think it is different in other states.
I doubt it is so much as "lying to pollsters" as hanging up on an unsolicited call wasting your time.
The only condition that would seem comparable to the toxicity toward Trump held by so many bigoted Democrats would have been if Obama had been elected President in the 1940's. Trump's opponents are not racists, but they carry the same vitriol and malice that we see in racism. Nothing Trump does can placate their hate. The same man who was loved on TV, given awards by black advocates, and praised for good works, has political leprosy. Orange really is the new black.
I regularly get calls from crooks pretending to be from AT&T or Microsoft or Apple or my bank asking to dial into my computer or confirm a number. I'm supposed to believe a pollster is who he says he is? I suspect its antifa compiling a doxing list. I live in the Bay Area so this is a serious concern.
Its my civic duty to talk to pollster? I don't think so!
They've gone beyond politically untenable to personally untenable - causing you lose social and business connections. They can vilify a man so you won't admit you support him but we can't follow you into the voting booth.
I think part of the pressure for mail in voting is to make people fear that others will see their vote.
There is nothing 'Toxic' about Trump
Other than his enemies desiring you to believe otherwise.
the new trash times, stay the course, aluminum tubes ahead...
Just going by the yard sign poll, support for Trump has only increased since 2016 in my little suburban, upper middle class corner of Pennsylvania. I've seen about two dozen Trump signs and ONE Biden sign within a couple mile radius from my house. The very people Trump is allegedly losing, educated suburbanites. Similar proportion of Trump to Biden signs on my commute to and from work. My county has been trending Republican since 2000 but in 2016 the yard sign poll was much closer than it is right now in 2020.
"because he’s become so toxic."
Because progs are so violently intolerant.
You should label this "wishful thinking."
I hang up on average of one poll call a day.
I get polled several times a year. Only twice have I responded.Those two times I lied, deliberately to screw up their numbers. I will only tell a pollster the truth if he pays me.
In practice I just hang up when I get a phone call from a polling outfit. But, if I were running strategy for Republicans, I might be tempted to institute "Operation Skew You" -- openly advocate for conservatives to lie to pollsters -- in order to blunt the rather obvious practice Ds have of using polls to depress the conservative turnout. Make their polls laughably wrong. I'd like to see it.
I did get a phone call from an unknown number. I rarely ever do.
but I did, about a week or 2 ago. I was in the care driving.
It sounded like an Asian woman.. in a far-off call center. I was mildly intrigued so instead of hanging up I stayed on the line and answered a few of her questions. I don't recall the questions other than I said - yes - I'm a republican and yes I plan on voting for republicans.
She hung up on me. LOL.
Just tell the story straight!
You crack me up sometimes, Professor.
So basically the polls are saying Trump has lost 20% of those who voted for him last time. Because they like the dem way. Yeah, lets go with that.
@Leland(11:57)
+1
“If voters were indeed afraid of voicing their support for the president, Mr. Winston said [there would be] an uptick in the percentage of undecided voters rather than a rise in support for Mr. Biden....”
If voting for Trump is “toxic,” isn’t it also “toxic” to be be considering voting for him? Saying you’re undecided just exposes you to the same sort of ridicule or disdain. How can you be undecided between a guy who represents everything wholesome and decent about America and a literal orange fascist?! If I was scared to admit that I supported Trump, I would lie and say I supported Biden, or that I had decided not to vote. I wouldn’t say I was undecided.
My Philadelphia near-suburb neighborhood is not festooned with lawn signs or bumper stickers these days (which is interesting in and of itself; there's normally more public messaging going on), but these signs are not rare either and they have all been pro-Democrat/leftist in their messages. Today, I passed a Trump/Pence lawn sign while walking my dog and was shocked. I noticed they didn't put the sign near the sidewalk; it's right off their porch so if anyone has a problem with it, they would have to walk through the whole front yard to mess with the sign. I don't have the balls to put anything on my car or my house identifying us as non-Left supporters---it's bad enough that some co-workers and neighbors have figured it out by our reluctance to join in Trump-bashing. It will be very interesting to see if the sign makes it through the Election.
The toxicity is among the lefties. I would never berate a colleague or relative for being an out and proud leftie, but they won’t shut the fuck up if they learn I’m a proud deplorable. And they’re nasty about it.
Also, I believe that our Althouse political weather vane is directing us to a large number of habitual D voters who would never say they plan to pull the T lever. All this looting and rioting and cancelling has made a deep impression among those who want fairness and safety nets from grub’ment but don’t particularly enjoy being call racists merely because they are white. But they won’t say it out loud to anyone for fear of a struggle session.
When the BLM thugs marched into a neighborhood a couple of days ago and shouted to the white residents that they should “give us your homes” and “open your fucking wallets”, I could hear the T levers being pulled.
- Krumhorn
Who can forget the 2016 joy of watching all the celebrity news readers react in surprise, then astonishment, then despair, as the actual election results came in and refuted their expectations?
Lying to poll takers is a way of participating in the great joke. Set 'em up again, and watch 'em fall for it all over again.
It's like a Three Stooges bit, or Laurel and Hardy, or Lavern and Shirley or Lucy and Ethel. The first time is funny. But the repeated, persistent, and oblivious failure to get that piano up the stairs, to make that wall paper stick, to keep up with the chocolate bananas ... Failure is funny. Repetition is hilarious.
Imagine the silent majority in the role of the madman, and the media in the role of the sad sack, locked together on election night. "Slowly I turned, step by step, inch by inch ... " Each state's report is funnier and funnier. Each electoral vote for Trump is a blow against the smug and self-important. The audience can see it coming. We are HELPING to bring it on. We are heirs of a long and great tradition and we want to pass that heritage on to a new generation:
https://www.threestooges.com/2017/11/01/slowly-i-turned-the-origin-of-the-three-stooges-niagara-falls-routine/
What can be better?
I have another theory to go along with the "people lie to pollsters" theory: Pollsters create dishonest polls and fudge or outright lie about the results.
Wait a minute, Mr. Postman - these Trump-invented silent supporters may prefer "last-mile service" to Trump's undelivered promises.
It’s not Trump who has become “so toxic”. It’s those who cannot abide a Trump voter in their midst who have become toxic.
I would suggest that the Trump voters who are open about their preference tend to be older, retired or self employed. The "shy" Trump voter tends to be younger and still concerned about SJWs at work.
They're weaving a narrative, directing a perception, a poor model of reality that they expect people to accept on faith. An insidious duplicity, sixteen trimesters and in progress. They underestimate people's awareness, principles, and resolve.
Trump voters only seem like a really boisterous, un-shy bunch because those are the only Trump voters who dare speak up.
I have people tell me at least once a week how they can't understand why idiots support that fascist, Trump. Well,they aren't going to find out from me, because they've made it clear they think Trump supporters are fascist-supporting idiots.
There are about 6 people in the world who know I voted for Trump last time and will again. And even my husband isn't one of them.
since the spring of 16 I have answered questions for every pollster who calls my rural area of WI. By Oct 17 '16 I was on record over 2 dozen times as a strong Hillary supporter. I did not vote for Hillary. The way I see it the person calling me asking for my information is being paid, so is the organization they are working for but they are asking that the most valuable part of their enterprise, My Opinion, be given to them for free. Well no such luck, if you are making money based on my honest opinion you need to pay me, otherwise i amuse my self by lying to you.
I was a Never Trump-er. I voted for Gary Johnson last election.
But now? I’m showing up and voting straight red down the whole ticket. I’ve never been so afraid of the democrat party in my entire life.
We could never hope to again feel the joy of watching the shaedenfreudelistcally delicious anguish of the assholishly smug and sure Hillary voters on election night 2016, could we? Wait, there just might be a way to savor that again in November -- lie to pollsters. That alone is reason to do so.
I answer unknown numbers on my phone when I'm in the mood for some fun. Somehow I'm on the list for the Dem's and Rep's to see how political ads effect my opinion.
Here's how the conversation usually goes:
Pollster: If you knew that candidate X refused to allow funding to help a neighbor with cerebral palsy, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for candidate X, or would it have no effect on your vote?
Me: What a frigin scumbag! Purposefully causing harm to a kid, a little disabled kid! If I were to see him on the street, I'd punch him right in the face! No effect, I'm voting for candidate X (or candidate Y).
By the end of giving my opinion to the pollster on all the proposed ads, and after calling candidate X worse than a child molester and promising I would run him down with my pickup if I see him walking down the street, the pollster is laughing and thanking me for lightening up the mundane task of calling people all day and getting people pissed off.
Pointing out the lies of NYT is like fishing with dynamite. Up your game Professor!
These people are so delusional. 4 years ago the hidden Trump voter won him the presidency. And that was before the left turned several cities into open air insane asylums. A lot of the hidden voters have gone further underground and he's running against the dementia patient. It's not a lock but it's not impossible
Okay I just read some of the comments and it seems like a lot of people just don't answer questions. I actively lie and tell them I'm voting Democrat. I have no doubt I am not the only one
"People believe all sorts of crazy, tin foil hat, conspiracy stuff. That white suburban mom that lives in a blue county might just be suspicious that her answers to polling questions are being recorded and could be revealed to her friends."
I am not a registered party member and have never donated money. But back a few years ago I would answer telephone polls honestly (now I don't answer at all) and it is clear that that's all it took to put me into databases as "Republican".
A statistic I'd like to see: How many new voters are there who have voted once or less in the last 4 Presidential elections broken down by age group. I think this is determinative of whether Trump wins or not. If the number of over 30's shows a major increase Trump wins in a landslide. Statistics from previous Trump rallies may be indicative. CV19 may have made a hash of those numbers though.
Local elections are crux to the future health of the Republic. If the idiot city councils and mayors aren't booted in this election even a second term for Trump won't save us.
what you need to know,
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/08/some_matters_domestic_and_foreign.html
I was taught that to do polls, you randomly select a sample frame of respondents, then you work as hard as you can to get them all to respond. Non response is kryptonite to pols because many times non response is correlated to category of opinion. I don’t think there is a good random way to contact people anymore. If I get a cell call from a number I don’t know I never pick up, I know I will just be blabbered at. I was polled a year ago by a democratic poll outfit and I told them I was a lesbian Bernie boy. They loved it. I would definitely lie to a pollster, what if your company made a fake poll call to you trying to figure out who to lay off?
It's not the people the pollsters FINALLY get on the line who lie to the pollsters that matter. It is the people who NEVER answer the call. That massive, silent majority is going to DESTROY the loons on the left in November.
No political pollster has ever polled me, in my life. But nowadays I never answer an unfamiliar phone number, so that's not likely to change, I suppose. But I'd certainly tell them the truth.
Personally, I don't talk about my support (it's not 100%, but it is pretty strong) for Trump unless I'm sure it's not going to go bad. And that's true of talking with pretty close friends, whom I've had it go bad. I think it is real and a bigger deal than a lot of people will admit. I don't know how directly it correlates with poll numbers. I'm not interested to talking to pollsters and have declined the few times I've gotten a call.
Mrs. Duncan and I drove down to Waterville, Iowa yesterday. We saw zero Biden yard signs on our 100 mile round trip. We counted about a dozen Trump signs. One farmer had a 4' by 8' "Trump 2016" sign he had repurposed for 2020.
My vision is not very good these days. Your mileage may vary...
"If voters were indeed afraid of voicing their support for the president, Mr. Winston said [there would be] an uptick in the percentage of undecided voters rather than a rise in support for Mr. Biden...."
And people who just hang up when they realize they're talking to a pollster or swipe to disconnect when their phone says "telemarketer" or "proabably spam": How are they counted?
I have looked at the detailed data from several polls, and have yet to find a report of the ratio of calls answered versus not answered. And if answered, how many hung up before completing the poll? I would think this information would be of extreme usefullness in determining the validity of any poll, but it usually unavailable.
That said, if I were working for a pollster and had to get 10 or 50 polls completed before I got paid, how many hang-ups would I accept before I started inputting responses pulled from the back of my pants? Very little data exists publicly on the validity of data reporting in polls, either.
“This totally confirms the notion of ‘shy Trump voters,’” Mr. Newhouse said.
The word that comes to mind is intimidated.
Judging by the number of Trump lawn signs and Trump flags where I live, not to mention the amount of people who in just the last year are now flying old glory, people are not afraid to show their admiration for Trump, and their unapologetic love of this country.
You Trump haters can fuck off and die. You are not needed to make this country work, so get out of the way.
mikee said...
I'm voting for Trump in the fall, but I voted for Bernie in the primary, for fun. It felt quite wrong voting for him, although I was absolutely certain it made no difference to the outcome of the Dem primary.
Yep. Same here. I didn't brag about it afterwards, but the rest of what you wrote exactly describes my actions and feelings
And yes, I'm in a swing state that may very well go Trump this time. No, I didn't vote for him in 2016
No, I'm not answering any phone calls from numbers I don't recognize, so I won't ever be polled
Liars vote for Trump. See?
Silence isn't lying. See?
a group that tends to be uniquely expressive and adamant about their support for the president
Does the boat parade have him feeling a little salty?
pollsters lie to us
...but expect the truth be given to them
Think about all of the boat parades supporting Trump. I've not seen anything comparable for Biden, but maybe that's just me.
I know, however, that if I had a Trump bumper sticker on my car or a Trump flag or sign on my house, people on the left would do something hostile (key the car, trash the house or yard, etc.).
I also know that when I fly my Trump flag on my boat, no one can do a damn thing about it. It's pretty cool to be out on the boat and see other folks with Trump flags and wave and toot the horn. You can express your political preference without fear. You can't do it on land because the other side is aggressive, hostile. and ombative.
That is all …
"Some Republicans have been trying to talk themselves into believing that Donald Trump would not be so bad as the Republican nominee for president. Maybe he really would scramble the political deck sufficiently, they think, to allow the party to retake the White House.
Those Republicans are whistling past the graveyard. A Trump nomination has as much chance of success in the general election as Trump University, or Trump Mortgage, or Trump Shuttle, or Trump Vodka, or Trump Casinos. Trump is an electoral disaster waiting to happen."
- Whit Ayres in the Washington Post, March 31, 2016
JPS said...
Right now I'm just hoping against expectation that whatever the result, it's clear-cut enough that it doesn't lead to protracted legal wrangling and 40+% of the country feeling they've been cheated out of the victory they so clearly deserved.
The Democrats are not willing to accept it when they lose. See, Georgia 2018, Trump 2016, Bush 2004 (Ohio was stolen with vote suppression), Bush 2000
My hope is that the Democrat never again win a national election, until such time as they're willing at accept it when they lose
Because until then, they're not qualified to hold power
I get polling calls on my landline. When I do answer the call I ask for who they are polling for. Since they never say for whom, I just hang up.
"China is core identity for Trump. If you like that about him, it means you're a Trump supporter."
"Voting for Trump is shameful!... I guess I'm a supporter then."
This was from a Muslim I know.
Biden is FUCKED.
When a stranger calls the next number on their list and it's you.
You know nothing about them. Even their phone# may be spoofed.
They say they are election polling.
Any questions you answer can be tied to your phone#. It takes a lot of faith in strangers to think they are going to break that phone# link when your phone# and data can be monetized elsewhere.
The rare times I have answered such a call I decline. When I decline, I wonder how often the caller fills in their own preferences as if they were mine, just to show some production.
Bob K
Here's a link to the Whit Ayres op-ed I quoted at 1:46.
It's worth a look because almost every single assertion he makes is completely wrong. Every one. Completely.
He is a respected Republican pollster and has his finger on the pulse of the electorate.
I guess I don't understand why Trump voters would be "shy" to admit to a pollster that they're voting for Trump.
Now, I can understand well why a voter might want to lie to pollsters to screw up the polls. I've been doing that myself for more than 20 years.
I never fail to answer a phone call if I think it might be from a pollster. After 20 years, at this time of an election year, I get called by polling companies about 5 times a week.
That’s great, Rabel. You guys are cheering me right up today.
Love ya MayBe
“ There are about 6 people in the world who know I voted for Trump last time and will again. And even my husband isn't one of them.”
...to Trump's undelivered promises.
I'm old enough to remember when building the wall and 3 percent growth were promises Trump would never deliver.
Good times...
Your headline sows the bias right out the gate. I cannot trust a word they say after that.
Trump supporters do not think he is toxic. The think the left is toxic and will out them and ruin them if given the chance. I think their fear is reasonable and prophetic.
The left is toxic as hell and has shown over and over that they are more than willing to line their opponents up against the wall. It will be re-education and all that from the get go if we let these evil people take over.
Personally, I am going to set aside my reservations based on Joe Biden's minimal mental attributes, his revolting personality, his dishonesty, and his obvious mental decline from an always low level and vote for him for president because Joe Biden is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.
Any questions?
It's probably just self selection bias. Not by the pollsters, which is why they haven't figured out how to solve their accuracy problems. By the public. As a conservative, I'm utterly disgusted by the mainstream media and by association their polling organization adjuncts. You cannot get me to answer a pollsters questions. I'll hang up or ignore them.
Does an equivalent sized faction exist on the left? The mainstream media are their allies. They want Democrats elected. They want Trump and all conservatives out the door. It seems unlikely that an equivalent level of animosity exists there. So, what is skewed is not the people who will answer a poll, it's the people who will not answer a poll. Of course, they'll continue to call until they get enough GOP poll respondents, but here's the key - those aren't the same people. They are oversampling people who are moderate Republicans, casual Republicans, RINO's, NeverTrumpers, and Mitt Romney.
Can you conduct a proper poll if there is a sizable group that refuses to be polled because they regard your polling process as illegitimate?
The pollster can't think of any reason why a shy Trump voter wouldn't claim to be an independent? That shows a remarkable lack of imagination. Most pollsters work for one of the two major parties. If you claim to be undecided, you're telling them to call you back, over and over, until you agree to vote for their candidate or reveal (most likely with curses) that you're voting for the other. Who needs that?
If a pollster ever manages to get hold of me, or a nosy neighbor or student (I'm a teacher) demands my opinion, I tell them: "I have already decided how I'm going to vote in November. No, I will not tell you, and no, there is nothing you or anyone else can say that will change my mind, so there's no point in wasting your time talking to me. And no, I don't want to know how you're voting, either, or why, even if it turns out to be the same as how I plan to vote." If it's a neighbor or student, I add "Let's avoid all talk about contemporary politics in the future. Have a nice day!" If it's a pollster, I add "I'm not interested" and skip the part about having a nice day.
Professor Althouse - your analysis for this post is spot on. I am a former daily NY Times reader, but the "slant" of the news and analysis became so overwhelmingly and purposefully un-accurate that I could no longer give it the respect that it tries to demand. I can't help but wonder if you may get to the point where you also start to question using it as anything other than a flashpoint for discussion on the blog. Maybe you are already there.
By the way, it is not Donald Trump's unfulfilled promises that bother me, it is Joe Biden's and Kamala Harris's as-yet unfulfilled promises that scare me to death.
Reagan beat a lot of these asshole lefties 49-1 and they STILL deny that he was better than Carter. Why expect them to stop whining now?
A woman in the next county tried to remove a neighbor's Trump sign, and he hit her in the arm with a BB and now faces a criminal charge. His lawyer says he was aiming for her ass. She claims on the TV news that she isn't anti-Trump and it wasn't on his property, so she didn't believe it was his sign, so she was just doing him a favor.
My landline has been out for a week, and the lack of robocalls is so nice, I may not call AT&T until after the election, despite the waste of money.
Teh Cry of teh sunsong...
https://youtu.be/wDYNVH0U3cs
Blogger Ken B said...It’s not Trump who has become “so toxic”. It’s those who cannot abide a Trump voter in their midst who have become toxic.
By answering a so-called poll, you have given private information to someone you have no clue about. Could be a local political operative that exposes you to bad things. I worried about this more when I was a registered voter up in deep-blue St. Paul, but there are TDS deranged people everywhere.
Trump has become so toxic? Well if you dump truck loads, boat loads and ship loads of maliciosus garbage on someone (as has gone on for four years now) they will tend to smell a bit.
But for weapons grade toxicity you need to go find yourself a progressive or liberal SJW. Disagree with them and a world of hurt will come down around your hears.
Best to just lie low--and hope enough of us put the electoral shiv into the Democrat balloon on November 3. May not happen--gut it would be a fitting revenge to all the crapola that's been spewed.
"Whit Ayres in the Washington Post, March 31, 2016"
LOL! Probably how he was found by the reporters for the present article.
I am not so sure it’s shy voters, but that the polling outfits cook the books, just like Wikileaks showed us, as an attempt at voter suppression. Any honest story on this subject should reference that email.
"I can't help but wonder if you may get to the point where you also start to question using it as anything other than a flashpoint for discussion on the blog.”
That and that puzzle that seems to be a bigger craze than Klic Klacs.
"But I’m still not convinced that not telling your business associate or the people in your Rotary Club or the people in your country club is the same thing as not telling a pollster,"
Why would anyone tell anything to a random stranger in this day and age? You have no idea what they are going to do with the answers and/or where the info is going to end up (leaks, hacks, bankruptcies, etc.)
"...because he’s become so toxic."
Because he's become so toxic? Who is this Whit Ayres guy anyway? Trump was toxic the moment he chose to run for president. Toxic to establishment people inside the beltway party affiliation notwithstanding. Toxic to uncritical acquiescence to the Climate Crusade. Toxic to a "liberal" configuration of the Supreme Court. Toxic to the news media accustomed to fawning politicians. Toxic to "allies" seeking a free ride. Toxic to the Russians who would happily annex half of Ukraine and all of Poland. Toxic to China who loves to play games with trade, their currency, and their epidemics.
It is the "Cancel Culture", the culture of Intolerant Opinions that became toxic. Said culture was headed there anyway (e.g. "Dear Colleague - signed Title IX, PROMISE, and mail-in-voting), but with Hillary in the White House and Democrats in charge of Congress, the "Woke" could be tolerant of the powerless opposition (and even Confederate statues). The coming of Trump changed all that, and some of the "Woke" resort to violence trying to regain momentum toward "Utopia".
In an environment where you can lose property, livelihood, and maybe your life for "wrongthink", yeah, of course it's Trump's fault. If only he hadn't become so toxic.
It’s a mystery. A stranger calls you claiming to be a pollster and asking, in effect, if you’d like your house burned down in the night.
Pretty sure you’re not “undecided”
that's all it took to put me into databases as "Republican".
Over half the states don't let you register by party anyway. Montana is one.
So it's hell trying to find out who's with you and who's not. I did a lot of voter ID calling and hated every minute of it.
Then early voting caught on so everything had to start earlier. It was easier when most people voted the same day!
Never again.
People with Trump yard signs are obviously not shy nor concerned about vandalism. Maybe they never get polled.
Rabel said...
Here's a link to the Whit Ayres op-ed I quoted at 1:46.
It's worth a look because almost every single assertion he makes is completely wrong. Every one. Completely.
He is a respected Republican pollster and has his finger on the pulse of the electorate.
And yet he's completely missed the reason Trump was elected.
A lot of Americans felt that it would be safer for them with Trump in the White House than it would be with Hillary! in the White House.
I can't see that changing in any way except becoming more prevalent. It's time the American left got their heads around the fact that re-running the 1960's playbook was doomed to failure!
I don’t answer any phone calls that my phone’s caller ID displays that I don’t recognize (unless I am expecting an important call). I also wouldn’t trust anyone who could potentially use my phone # & name to input it in a database to use against me (harassment, vandalism, or doxxing me) as I have seen how liberals operate against people they don’t agree with in my state AND nationwide. In the office that I work in, 95% vote straight Dem ALL THE TIME, no matter how despicable and/or unqualified the candidate is. I keep my head down at work about politics just so my work relationships AND friendships don’t become toxic due to the enmity my co-workers feel towards conservatives. I got scolded by one co-worker the day after the election for not voting for Hilary! four years ago like my one vote would have swung the election for her. In my opinion, the tactics that the Dems & left use today in harrassing conservatives or those who don’t agree with them are exactly what the Marxists/Maoists/Communists do in countries that they takeover (eg Nicaragua, Venezuela) which was straight out of the playbook of Nazi Germany after they took power by the ballot box in 1933 - people who don’t agree with the party in power were at a minimum harrassed initially and much, much worse only a few short years later.
the dems plan to keep counting until they win. That way Bidne's 11+ poll numbers or whatever, will make nater Silver a star.
I’ve often wondered if lying like this could account for the wildly wrong poll results of 2016, but I don’t know if I buy it. I think what’s likelier is just that more dems tend to be concentrated in bigger cities which gives the gop an advantage in the electoral college. I’m anticipating a repeat of last year’s results where The Donald loses the popular vote, but still wins the presidency. If there really is a demographic shift underway in which people are leaving the cities this could be bad news for the gops later on down the line.
We finally cut our landline about 4 months ago, we were not getting anyone we wanted to talk to on it. It also was not portable enough to just look at it and decide, nope, had to go answer the dang thing.
Very happy with the decision.
"My landline has been out for a week, and the lack of robocalls is so nice, I may not call AT&T until after the election, despite the waste of money."
This seems like so much liberal chum to buck up the faithful in the Nytimes. There are still great misgivings that the polls are accurate this time as many progressives still have nightmares about believing them in 2016 only to wake up to a horrifying reality.
I think the thing that keeps them up at night is states that are polling with Biden ahead pollsters also asked respondents if they think their neighbor is a secret trump voter and it's an astonishing 52%!?
Didn't the BBC do an in depth analysis in 2017 on how they missed Brexit and PM May's surprise election results when all of their polls forecasted a different outcome? I think they discovered an inconvenient truth that people kept their preferences to themselves or openly lied.
I'll do anything I can to mess with the corrupt media, SJW crowd, and even my woke family members. They all start from the premise that everyone who votes for Trump (or any other constitutionally sound politician) is a bigoted hateful Neanderthal; then with phony claims of patriotism, regard for truth, or personal caring, attempt to bait us into statements they can use to shame or cancel us. I have no regrets about my shuck and jive acts. Let them howl at the sky after the election, and puzzle out why its alway us deplorables who have bug-out hideaways stocked up, know how to educate our own kids, and already have those despised and oh-so-essential "redneck" skills.
if you’d like your house burned down in the night
We observed this intimidation tactic when Some, Select Black Lives Matter and Antifa factions invaded people's neighborhoods and occupied large swaths of cities and commercial properties. The fires, the shakedowns, their order, were just a bit too much nostalgia for some people.
The NYT (is there anyone left who hasn't fled NY?) is barking up the wrong tree. The story isn't just Trump supporters that are keeping their inclination hidden it's left-leaning independents who are looking at the current lunatic democrat platform. As the Stalinist left continues to tighten it's grip, how many are going to turn to the Republicans?
As the BLM and antifa terrorists keep threatening everyone over statues and attacking a Ronald Mcdonald house, do voters think they are going to trust the press/pollsters to not doxx them and expose them to the violent left mobs?
Does the NYT think the McCloskeys are going to vote democrat?
Voter registration analysis is a meaningless exercise. Why? Just look on voting day how many cross from one party to another. Better yet, look at the growth of Independent registration over the decades. End of story!
If it’s in the NYT, it’s unreliable, period!!
I work in Seattle so I keep my opinions to myself. Even my Facebook is sanitized. It’s all puppy dogs and unicorns. I also hang up on polltakers. Not sure how I am skewing the narrative with all of that.
If it's Trump that's toxic, why is the trend on Twitter "the wrong Trump died". Those aren't Trump voters posting that. They're Biden voters, like Chuck.
bbkingfish cannot understand why conservatives don't want to be doxxed, fired, attacked, and run out of pointe society.
bbkingfish,
I hope Antifa comes to your neighborhood to mostly peacefully protest.
I hope they block your streets.
I hope you need an emergency vehicle and it cannot get there to help you.
WaPo launches another poll showing big time support for Kamala Harris among.....
.....(wait for it).....(wait for it).....
........"All Adults".
Yes. All Adults. Not US Citizen Adults. Not Registered Voters. Not Likely Voters.
"All Adults".
I'll bet they even polled the same LLR's 2 or 3 times each......
Oh and living in a blue blue, NorCal it would be career suicide for me to let my true conservative viewpoints out at the white collar office I work part time in. It is completely different when I am out in the field with tradesmen and other blue collar workers who are unabashedly for Trump. I guard my true feelings here as well (professionalism at all times) but they know which side I am on.
Since Wednesday the blowjob jokes towards Harris have been unrelenting and course. Hispanic men have been particularly negative towards Harris which is something of a surprise to me as well. They are usually quite demur towards women generally. I theorize many of the blue collar workers have been driven into the arms of trump because of the prudish almost womanly chastising they get from the popular culture when they speak simple truths. If this is happening in Blue NorCal, what must be happening everywhere else?
If it’s in the NYT, it’s unreliable, period!!
It is politically unwise to voice support for Trump in Madison. Especially if you work for the University.
"Toxic" is how pathogens think of antibiotics
...and how vampires regard garlic, crosses and sunlight
Trump is the punch in their turd-bowl
I believe that the polls will radically shift when school actually "starts" but school actually does not start in many districts. I believe that the polls will radically shift when people see that property taxes have not gone down but their children are not in school and when they see that their neighbors' children are in private or Catholic schools without dying. And I believe that the polls will radically shift when many couples who formerly had two incomes but had to give up one job for their children, when such couples see that their former neighbors who moved to different counties or states are still prosperous and still have their children in school. It's the way of the world that people simply do not respond until things actually happen - and all of the above will have actually happened by September 20. Then we'll see. (And don't think for single instant that parents will blame their children for being; they will blame the teachers for not teaching.)
I would definitely lie to a pollster about voting for Trump. I live in an extreme liberal bubble and have gotten quite used to holding my tongue.
Hey, there are plenty of good reasons why we have (for now) a secret ballot.
"Shy" Trump voters, my *ss...
I sat at a table in my church, in my Episcopal church, with my longtime choir friends, my friends of a decade, before the 2012 election, you know, the Romney one. And to a man and woman, they talked such smack about Republicans as I could not believe I was hearing coming from these friends of mine. Republicans were stupid. Republicans were evil. Republicans should be booted out of the country. Republicans should not have the right to vote. No one who has any self-respect or any feeling for any other human being could be a Republican. No one who can string three words together or add two digits could possibly be a Republican.
The sweet woman who taught Sunday school beside me. The woman who became a nurse in her 50s and got a PhD in nursing in her sixties after escaping from an awful, abusive marriage, and was supporting two of her four adult children. The guy I played opposite when we performed "Into the Woods," and who taught Sunday school with my husband. The organist-choirmaster, a quiet man but a very interesting one, gay as it seems most church organists are now, and also a bodybuilder, which you could never tell under his robes, whom I had never heard express a political opinion - I assumed because he played organ at an Episcopal Church and Episcopalians are so often assumed to be conservative. Now of course I believe he just thought everyone in his choir shared his opinion, so there was no reason for him to put it out there. All of them. Every one of them.
But in 2012, that fascist, misogynist, vulgar Romney was running. And everyone in that choir decided two things: First, they could speak freely because after all, see the characteristics of Republicans enumerated above; none of their friends could possibly be Republican. Second, this election would no doubt be the most important one of their lives.
I exaggerate very slightly: two choir members, a husband and wife, are "out" Republicans. They weren't there that day. But the choir members present made no exception for these two, people that they had been friends with for far longer than the decade that they had known me, and whom they knew absolutely were not on their political side. The next time that couple was with the group, la-la-la, it was as if nothing had happened.
After that day, I decided I would never reveal my political leanings to anyone whose political leanings I did not know already. I'm not "shy" about it. I am instead deeply cynical, and when I had a paycheck, paid by that church as it happens, deeply uneasy about the ramifications of my employer's knowing my politics.
2008 california had a proposition in favor of traditional marriage on the ballot. Everybody who contributed favorably had their name posted in the Los Angeles Times, in local papers, and on the internet. Then, gay groups encouraged harassment of donors. The left never changes. People homes and cars were vandalized. People lost their jobs. People were terrorized. Just like having a Trump sign or bumper sticker The left never changes. Everybody with a landline is easily identifiable.
http://projects.latimes.com/prop8/
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/19/us/19prop8.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/prop-8-anger-spurs-donor-blacklists/
I have no doubt that there are several million secret Trump voters out there. More important than the absolute number is where they are. Half a million in each of a half dozen swing states would be plenty.
I hear that people who sheltered runaway slaves on the Underground Railroad wouldn't even tell their neighbors, because Blacks were so toxic.
I watch free game, food show videos on YouTube - I have seen pop up fundraising ad/pitch from Joe, Stacy et al - never seen one from Republican yet.
what about other commenters?
You've really become toxic, you racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, transphobic, colonialist, supremacist, fragile, hate-filled, white, demon-spawn. How do you account for that?
One of those environments would be the NYT.
it is well and good that comments indicate that commenters feel more openly responsive than they would be to pollsters.
when I have time I would answer by asking questions back !
(if you have inclination for that and can maintain unrevealing your own preferences)
JPS,
"that's pretty much the end of the Electoral College"
Do you really think enough of the non-huge states would sign on to sign away their power in that way?
... said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster,
... said David Winston, a pollster who works with congressional Republicans.
[Neil Newhouse, a Republican who led Mitt Romney’s polling in 2012, said that in 2016]
etc.
did NYT talk to any /Democratic pollster/, /pollster who works with congressional Democratics/ about this issue?
"...deeply uneasy about the ramifications of my employer's knowing my politics."
Sad, very sad for our society. This is how kids will grow up now - with the assumption that you can/will/should be fired for failing to subscribe to the approved political line. Horrible for a free society. It shows how many people, especially how many people "in charge," don't want to live in a free society. Jeezus, whatever happened to live-and-let-live?
You don't have to lie to pollsters to skew the results. Disproportionate nonresponse rates would do just as good a job, and I know if I were contacted by a pollster I'd definitely not respond one way or the other.
I'm glad my working days are mostly behind me. I can do part-time freelancing for a couple of people who couldn't care less about my politics, and I never have to worry. But my career included a big stretch at a huge tech company. I doubt I'd be allowed to work there now - not because I ever mix politics and work, but because somebody, someday, would find out that I'd written something unapproved on some website like this one.
Like Dude, some total stranger calls me around dinner time and asks me who I’m voting for. And I’m going to tell him Trump? Sure thing. I like getting my car keyed, and my property vandalized.
My wife wanted to put a Trump bumper sticker on her car, I told her, are you out of your mind, we’re in the DC suburbs. I said better yet, we’ll find a high end car with a Biden sticker and cover it with a Trump sticker, let those folks Learn a lesson on tolerance...
I used to enjoy answering telephone polls, and I did not lie very much.
However, to combat a flood of spam, if you are not in my contact list you go straight to voicemail. Odd, no pollsters have called me since. None leave a callback message.
I do participate in yougov. polls now and again.
When I was young and had a heart I voted Democrat and always took every opportunity to talk to pollsters.
Now that I'm old and have a head I no longer vote Democrat and I never talk to pollsters.
I work in higher ed. I am going for tenure. I never disclose my politics.
My wife wanted to put a Trump bumper sticker on her car, I told her, are you out of your mind, we’re in the DC suburbs. I said better yet, we’ll find a high end car with a Biden sticker and cover it with a Trump sticker,
In LA in 2016, the only Trump sticker I saw was on a Tesla.
Huh. So THIS is what happens when an intelligent moderator excludes trolls but not viewpoints. The creative, clever and open-minded thrive while the humorless, triggered and dogmatic slink back to their echo chambers. Interesting.
"In LA in 2016, the only Trump sticker I saw was on a Tesla."
Like "Dead Head sticker on a Cadillac".
"It's worth a look because almost every single assertion he makes is completely wrong. Every one. Completely.
He is a respected Republican pollster and has his finger on the pulse of the electorate."
Effective sarcasm.
Yeah I may start lying again..
But I just liked the end of the call, when they ask education level. Surprise, I have a graduate degree! A Trump supporter!!
Heh. But the callers in Bangalore don't seem to know or care one way or the other.
@Narayanan at 5:30pm
I'm getting a ton of Biden-Harris sponsored ads on my Instagram feed now (which has so many sponsored ads that I'm considering dropping my lightly used Instagram account altogether). Instagram ads can be bought by MSA (metropolitan statistical area (ads by specific zip codes are supposedly not allowed bc that is considered "virtual redlining")) and they are relatively cheap.
Haven't seen paid political ads on LinkedIn yet. On the Professor's blog I mostly get ads for women's clothing - wtf? Cruel neutrality will probably result in no political ads -- although maybe we'll see an equal number of all parties represented here if the kickback from Amazon is deemed insufficient?
I agree with all the commenters who never talk to pollsters. Thank goodness for Caller ID. Real question: How does each campaign's internal polling (reputed to be more accurate than public polls) deal with this? Both Biden and Trump pollsters would be affected in significant but opposite ways, no?
"I never disclose my politics."
Can't they tell by omission? I'd think you'd have to actually chime in with the hate, or be forever suspect.
Unless everyone is sensible enough to not bring it up.
Narayanan said...
I watch free game, food show videos on YouTube - I have seen pop up fundraising ad/pitch from Joe, Stacy et al - never seen one from Republican yet.
what about other commenters?
I watch a lot of Dave Rubin, Joe Rogan, Ben Shapiro, Brett Weinstein and Jordan Peterson discussions and interviews (along with stuff on cars and sports). Until the last few months, it was about 60-40 Democrat ads. Now with the Stacy and Chucky appeals for $, it is about 80-20 Dem.
We are a low-trust society, very diverse but with no sense of community cooperation that is not enforced at the end of a gun. And even at that, we have Portland and Seattle and Chicago.
We don't have enough sense of community to convince people to wear masks in small rural towns now, in states where almost everyone is Christian or in single-ethnic neighborhoods.
We don't even have the usual level of cooperation on this year's census.
I haven't taken political or marketing phone calls for years.
The political gasbags had a good gig until they blew it in 2016. Nobody trusts them, or anyone else.
JPS said...
Also I hope that the winner gets more popular votes than the loser, even though that's not how victory is defined. If we have one more EC/popular vote disagreement anytime soon, as seems likely, that's pretty much the end of the Electoral College, which I think is worth keeping.
The only way they electoral college can end is if people whose votes now matter, decide to make their votes not matter
Not going to happen
It does not help the reputation of pollsters when we get polls out in May/June of adults (not even registered voters) where the sample is 50% Democrat. Such a poll is literally useless, but yet they push it out with the press release and the media dutifully report it like it means something. But yet we are supposed to take them seriously.
Trump is not toxic, the Left is.
Is there a documented case of a Trump supporter terminating their relationship, whether familial, fraternal, or marital, over non support of Trump?
I rarely talk to pollsters. I don't know who they are. They do not identify themselves as Gallup, for example, or any other recognized company. Most of the time, I hang up on them.
Right now, I have on my desk a piece of mail from the "Biden Victory Fund." Since they're paying the postage, I'm going to send it in, outline (including chapter and verse) why the Democratic Party should be declared a terrorist group. I've already taken off the identifying marks, including the one on the envelope itself, because you can't be too careful.
Third piece of mail we've received from the D's with the postage paid. Why they've sent me two when I'm registered R shows how terrible Pennsylvania is with their voter rolls (I was indy before moving over years ago). Otherwise, why would they waste money on me?
"that's pretty much the end of the Electoral College" really?
If true, it will be the end of the USA. In no way would the less populous states give up their rights.
Let's be honest: A lot of likely Trump voters are contemptuous of pollsters, and are more likely to ignore them or tell them to bugger off than Democrats, who are eager to display their TDS in Technicolor.
Salena Zito remains the only journalist who can explain the Trump phenomenon. She talked to small business owners and regular people in PA, OH, MI and WI. The answers are all right there in Zito's "The Great Revolt," but the Left still has no clue why he won, and why he’s going to win again. -WSW
Can't they tell by omission? I'd think you'd have to actually chime in with the hate, or be forever suspect.
In my experience (also higher ed) they are so much in their own bubble that in everyday conversation it doesn't cross their mind that I could be a Trump supporter. It is a risk, though, if you're being considered for a job at another institution, as I learned the hard way once.
Jamie @5:15pm... isn't that something... Americans sitting in a Christian church, casting aspersions and behaving in a very un-Christian-like manner.
Since liberals don't embarrass easy, I'll act as proxy and hang my head in shame for them.
This just in... bbkingfish rots from the head.
Hahahaha... I'll tell you what is gonna happen. Another Reagan landslide. And Biden will be the Jimmy Carter without even one term.
What happened with Prop 8 was terrifying, the marriage proposition, in California.
They went after people’s businesses, even if you only had an employee that contributed. They do a bunch of negative reviews.
Brendan Eich got kicked out of Firefox / Mozilla. He invented JavaScript!
And campaign contributions are public records in Ca.
And then our government after it won, and quietly killed it.
My view is unless you live in a very very Gop area, it’s dangerous to be seen as a supporter of Trump.
I have heard this also impacts Facebook reach, if you have a business, and you post pro Trump stuff.
Libertarianism is self-organizing. Liberalism is divergent. Progressivism is monotonic. Conservatavism is moderating. #PrinciplesMatter
I was in rural PA for three days this week. I visited three counties where the non-profits I work with have offices. Those counties voted an aggregate 73-23 for Trump in 2016.
Two small-town mayors (one who sits on our boards) advised my friend, who started and runs both agencies and lives in Clearfield County, that he would be wise to change his party registration. If the wrong people found out he's a Dem, his business would suffer big time.
The last thing I said to him when I left on Wednesday was that he should change his registration. It's just not that big a deal. You still can vote for whomever you want.
The point is, the phenomenon cuts both ways. If you're in an environment where the majority is substantial, pressure to conform from subtle to not-so-subtle, is felt by the minority. It doesn't matter if you're in Silicon Valley or Punxsutawney, PA.
Also...if you think those people making phone calls for the pollsters care who you vote for or what party you favor, you need to get a grip. Those folks make $10-13/hr, and are just doing their jobs. If you don't answer, they'll just talk to the next person. They don't care any more about you than you do about them. Less probably. Chances are, they don't even vote.
As the BLM and antifa terrorists keep threatening everyone over statues and attacking a Ronald Mcdonald house
Ronald, perhaps a reference to one of our favorite Presidents. Mc... Donald, they probably thought it was owned or a homage, a statute, a monument as it were, to our current President. That, or they felt entitled to prosecute a simple act of retributive or redistributive change a la Hutu/Tutsi, the Libyan affair, post-apartheid lynching, etc.
"We don't have enough sense of community to convince people to wear masks in small rural towns now..."
Have you considered the possibility that your argument in favor of masks is just not convincing enough? You probably should...
I watch free game, food show videos on YouTube - I have seen pop up fundraising ad/pitch from Joe, Stacy et al - never seen one from Republican yet.
what about other commenters?
Most of the YouTube videos I look at are music videos. Every one has a Biden ad.
Kirk Parker, 6:07; Greg the Class Traitor, 8:03; hstad, 8:46:
I don't know - just a bad feeling. It seems to me that the anti-EC movement is gaining steam, though that may be amplified by the sources I read and the people I hear it from.
I'm surprised at some of the states that have signed onto the national popular vote compacts; from a narrow view of their interests I wouldn't have thought they would.
It's a standing joke amongst Trump voters (such as me) that any polling question gets an emphatic "Biden!"
This (below) is probably the best explanation I've seen and will plagiarize this thought when talking to my Lefty friends who are so, so sure Biden will win based on the polls.
I very, very rarely answer phone calls from numbers or names I don't recognize. Its not that I'm lying to a pollster - its that even if they tried to call me I would even answer. I figure if its important they can leave a message. If I do answer the call and hear its a poll I'd just hang up - I've got a full time job and three kids; I'm not going to waste time on a stupid poll?? Especially if I am constantly subjected to news I KNOW is biased?
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Blogger Jersey Fled said...
I can only say that as a Trump voter, I never answer questions from pollsters. My Lefty friends, OTOH, never shut up about their political views. Ergo I think there is a bias in the polls based on who responds. Anecdotal, but I believe it is true.
Unknown: "Salena Zito remains the only journalist who can explain the Trump phenomenon. She talked to small business owners and regular people in PA, OH, MI and WI. The answers are all right there in Zito's "The Great Revolt," but the Left still has no clue why he won, and why he’s going to win again. -WSW"
I found it interesting how, during the 2016 cycle, when Zito was writing truly intriguing and insightful analysis of what was happening on the ground she came under vicious fire from those on the left and, in particular, certain LLR-lefties, for that analysis which, in the end, proved prescient.
Another individual who came under withering fire from the dems/left/LLR-left but was proven absolutely spot on correct was Scott Adams. You'll recall that our resident LLR-lefty has spent the last 4 years in constant attack/insult mode against Adam's for the "crime" of being correct.
Very telling.
Ann Althouse thought aloud...
"The article seems to have been written with the idea of debunking the notion that there's a big hidden Trump vote. Just tell the story straight!"
The NYT tell something straight? Hmmmmm...Yeah, I don't think they can. To tell a story straight, particularly from the home of the 1619 Project, is to not have a point-of-view, or at least to not express that POV openly on the "news" pages. Walter Lippman said the press had the responsibility to be agenda-setting. To do that, you need to have an agenda. Which, by all accounts, the NYT does.
Can't speak for others, but when my caller ID says anything with the words "POLITIC" or "POLL" in it, I just don't answer.
If somehow I got blindsided by a pollster, I'd lie. I don't want to lose my job.
YMMV.
Proud to say I would never vote for Basement Biden who has as 1st speaker at tomorrow’s convention Bernie Sanders and I’m in true blue land. I get texts not phone calls and say so. Freedom Rocks.
Polling companies create lists of people to poll and they keep records of who they contacted and the responses. They have to do that to do the necessary sampling manipulations to adjust for demographics, etc.
So the $10 an hour guy doesn't care, but the people with access to the database very well might. They, or whomever else they gave that data to, could easily crosstab their response list with other lists, of people someone else may be keeping an eye on. You cannot trust anyone in US politics to refrain from dirty tricks.
As for small town partisan retribution - that is penny-ante. The other side controls every major American institution. The locals may harrass a Dem re local government contracts, but the other side can lock you out of the global financial system.
"My Lefty friends, OTOH, never shut up about their political views."
This is an underappreciated aspect of this question. I'll talk to anybody about politics, but there's never anything offered that approximates conversation. It's just loony ranting about the designated outrage of the day that metaphysically proves Trump is Hitler-plus.
I go to three websites, about sports, movies, and TV. Two of those have officially banned political discussion, but there's still sarcastic outbursts, and all of that originates with leftists. Conservatives usually ignore it, occasionally rejoin, but never initiate it. I don't think it's a conscious compliance with the rules, it's just that conservatives put that stuff away when they're engaged in something else.
Does anything think that leftists even DISCUSS politics among themselves? If so, how do they follow Hillary over the cliff and then end up four years later with the one politician who is most like her as a candidate?
I
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