"A Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday found that 51% of likely voters said that they approved of the job Trump is doing and that 47% said they disapproved."
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 24, 2020
POLL: Trump Leads Biden By 10 Points Among Independents https://t.co/i9JrHJ0lkT via @dailycaller
National GE, Among Independents:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 23, 2020
Trump 47% (+10)
Biden 37%@YouGovAmerica/@CBSNewsPoll, LV, 8/20-22
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34 comments:
Gonna go ahead and say I don't believe this polling. I actually suspect Trump leads Biden, with Indy's, by about 18-22 points, but polling isn't capturing it. Even in "blue" counties here in IL, I'm seeing way more Trump signs than Biden signs, along with a lot of houses that have NO presidential election signs but are sporting some variation of "Pritzker Sucks" - protesting the lockdowns imposed by our D governor. Doubt many of those houses will be voting for "masks for everyone, at gunpoint" Slow Joe.
As I keep mentioning here 'Independents' are not an autonomous subgroup of voters, like a squishy middle of fence sitters. States with open primaries and 'unregistered' or 'independent' voters are not registered D or R but they can be loyal highly partisan voters for one side or the other.
If one wanted to manipulate a poll for public consumption tweaking the 'independent' sample would be a nearly invisible way to do it. Want a good D poll? Oversample MA, VT, Seattle in WA. Good for Rs? Hit hit AL MI eastern WA. Avoid Austin in TX...
Asked to comment on this before receiving instructions on how to answer, Sen. Biden replied, "Come on, man! Are you a junkie? Potato salad! Vootie!" Then he stormed off, leaving a trail of saliva.
Also, for what it's worth, here in my Red county in IL I'm seeing plenty of Trump signs, including at houses and in some neighborhoods where political signs were scarce in 2016. My favorites are all the houses with signs for LCL174 or other labor unions right next to their Trump sign, or their anti-governor sign.
As one of the cruelly neutral this is what I saw over the weekend:
Biden: I'm shutting the whole country down because "leadership."
Trump: I'm going to light a fire under the FDA scientists asses to approve plasma treatment. We already know it is safe and it is likely that it will be effective for many patients.
Only one of these approaches seems like something we elect a president to do.
You can't beat somebody with nobody.
The Dems just spent four years convincing themselves they could beat Trump with anybody.
The polls are soft. These idiots are making similar mistakes as they did in 2016.
Generally, there are two mistakes: (1) they oversample Democrats and (2) they fail to detect "shy" Trump voters i.e, those who don't like pollsters, don't want to get fired from their jobs, and don't want mobs to come to their house.
For any poll, you have to look at the internal numbers to evaluate whether it's a reliable poll or not. No, I'm qualified to do it. But there's a handful of real smart folks who publicly do it, and advise. Most of the polls are crap, and fail to meet the thresshold for reliability. Nate Silver doesn't sufficiently evaluate the polls, but simply aggregates the crap, to get crappy aggregate numbers.
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right, but we'll see in November, right?
'independent' voters are not registered D or R but they can be loyal highly partisan
I agree. I've done phone surveying for years and it seems to be a point of pride for *most* voters to say they're independent.
I don't doubt them, because ambivalence is the easy way. But they're just so vain about it. Lol.
Since 2006, I've been a registered Indy, despite voting nearly 100% Republican since my first participation in elections. Last week I got a polling call, first of the cycle. I think it was part of a local polling group for one of our state representatives. I told the lady I was "strongly considering" voting for Biden, and my current Rep's challenger, who is a Democrat. I have no intention of doing either.
D- 41.6%
R- 30.0%
I- 27.0%
It's clear CNN and MSNBC are not going to cover much of the GOP convention after broadcasting damn near every minute of the communist liars.
Racist white supremacist Richard Spencer has just endorsed Joe Biden....and Joe Biden has not condemned and denounced Richard Spencer.
Meanwhile, leftists/dems on college campuses across the country are re-instituting segregation.
And the dems VP candidate comes from a family that owned over 200 slaves.
Discuss.
When are we going to get thoughtful breakdown of polling by electoral college votes?
I really don't care if Biden or Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, which is what this broad polling does not focus on. How is Trump/Biden doing in electoral-college-vote weighted polling?
i guess This explains yesterday's MSM articles about how conventions were obsolete,
and that we should just go ahead and annoint Jo Biden?
Polls are jokes, and have been for years. Name one poll that provides the number of people who don't answer the phone, or refuse to answer poll questions, or hang up when they find a pollster on their phone.
Not sure if this is the routine "election is getting closer so we can't get away with our earlier outrageous skews anymore" bullshit or if this is "DNC convention actually dropped Biden's numbers, so we need to pump up Trump's numbers pre-convention so we can say his convention dropped his numbers too so it's just the new normal!" bullshit.
Asked to comment on this before receiving instructions on how to answer, Sen. Biden replied, "Come on, man! Are you a junkie? Potato salad! Vootie!" Then he stormed off, leaving a trail of saliva.
Evergreen, as Taranto might say...
What did the Democrats have to offer except "HATE TRUMP, HATE WHITEY??" at their convention?? They haven't even denounced the rioting yet, in fact, they stand back and let it happen in their cities.
Hmmm. Approval rating at 51%, Republicans more enthusiastic than Dems, indies going for Trump ... but Biden leads nationally.
Sure.
"It's clear CNN and MSNBC are not going to cover much of the GOP convention after broadcasting damn near every minute of the communist liars."
Good. People who want to watch will have to watch Fox. Fox isn't very conservative, but at least there's some balance. And the thoughtful libs will note the absence of coverage from their usual source.
Obvious question, how can Mr. Trump lead with Independents by 9 - 10 pts., since May and all the mainstream Pollsters have had Biden up by double digits? Easy, they reduce the sampling of the Independents and Republicans and increase the sampling of Democrats. Viola Biden is the winner in a fictional set of polls. While I don't believe only in one explanation, the other reason is that the Pollsters are getting nervous as we get close to election day and are starting to tighten up their samples to save their Brands for the next election. If the Independents sample is true, Biden loses by a landslide of massive proportions. Plus, Mr. Trump looks to better his haul of Blacks over 2016 by a large percentage and his hold on Hispanics is solid. Given this data, I kind of scratched my head at the DNC convention and their divisive messages. They live in a bubble and believe their own propoganda - truly amazing.
Blogger rehajm said...D- 41.6%...R- 30.0%...I- 27.0%...8/24/20, 11:48 AM
2016 election results according to Pew Research: D - 35%; R - 31%; I - 34%. Now that doesn't mean 2020 will be the same. Nevertheless, every poll pushed by the MSM, which had Mr. Trump behind by double digit numbers, always reflected an under-count of Rs and Is. As a result, those polls exhibited classic "push poll" numbers.
Joe Biden has not condemned and denounced Richard Spencer.
Joe Biden is not supposed to know who Richard Spenser, or know that he's to be denounced.
Trump, on the other hand, is supposed to have just had dinner with him.
wendybar said...
What did the Democrats have to offer except "HATE TRUMP, HATE WHITEY??" at their convention?? They haven't even denounced the rioting yet, in fact, they stand back and let it happen in their cities.
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could there be D crackdown in their cities for October surprise?! asking for D+(eplorables)
wendybar said...
What did the Democrats have to offer except "HATE TRUMP, HATE WHITEY??" at their convention?? They haven't even denounced the rioting yet, in fact, they stand back and let it happen in their cities.
--------------===============
could there be D crackdown in their cities for October surprise?! asking for D+(eplorables)
My commment of - "...Given this data, I kind of scratched my head at the DNC convention and their divisive messages. They live in a bubble and believe their own propoganda - truly amazing..."
I just got of the phone with a business acquaintance in NYC and mentioned by comment. He said, have you thought of another possibility? What? That the Dems need to hold onto their liberal base as much as possible so the 'landslide' doesn't erode their positions to much in Congress. Interesting observation - good or bad point?
President Trump to the press: Good to see you all. I hope you had a great weekend at your convention!
Heh.
Day 1 of the Republican National Convention.
Highlights:
-Former First Lady Confidante Stephanie Wolkoff Secretly Taped her Conversations with Melania Trump and Is Writing a Book on It
-New York AG Letitia James Announces Lawsuit Against Trump Org in Probe of Financial Dealing
We are seeking thousands of documents and testimony from multiple witnesses regarding several Trump Organization properties and transactions, including from Eric Trump, who was intimately involved in one or more transactions under review.
Its going to be a turnout election. It isn't just what % of independents like Trump, its how many show up and vote for him. never in American history has the electorate been so divided by race and class. Blacks are 90-10 Democrat. other minorities 2-1 Democrat. Whoever gets more of their voters to show up will win. That's why the Media and the Democrats are pushing mail-in ballots. Their voters don't really care about Old Slow Joe - but they'll put a ballot in a mailbox.
Given the weakness of Biden/Harris and the D's support for riots in the streets, Antifa, Open borders, Globalization, Trillions for Climate change, bad trade deals, wars overseas, and trashing religion and patriotism, Trump should be up by 20 points.
That's its close and Biden may win shows the USA may be at the tipping point. California has turned into a ONE party state, an ungovernable mess. No matter what the Democrat political elite does, the mind-numbed Calf D voters give them 51%. People in Calf vote their identity, and don't care about what the state government does, as long as they get their checks or their social liberalism. The USA MAY heading the same way.
MAGA 2020 as if your life depended on it, and it does.
Biden got zero bounce from his convention.... Even Bill Mahar said it was like a Telethon at 2 AM in the morning... just Zzzzzzzzzzz.
I have not seen even one Biden 2020 sign (and being a meals-on-wheels volunteer) I go through the poor parts of town often!
I just hope the house flips to Republican... and two more SCOTUS picks come up!
MAGA!
Browndog, the audience for that crap is about 10% of the population and not one of them is a Trump voter. Pissing in the wind, it used to be called.
Interesting offer from Rassmussen:
Reward Offered:
For full crosstab set copies of spiked (otherwise unpublished) media-sponsored national match-up polls - Biden vs Trump - after last weeks DNC Convention.
@Cernovich
specializes in this work (IE the missing Iowa Caucus Selzer Poll) - let's see who can top him.
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