"... potentially placing one of every three people alive outside the climate niche where humans have thrived for thousands of years. Many will dig in, suffering through heat, hunger and political chaos, but others will be forced to move on.... People are already beginning to flee.... Should the flight away from hot climates reach the scale that current research suggests is likely, it will amount to a vast remapping of the world’s populations. Migration can bring great opportunity not just to migrants but also to the places they go. As the United States and other parts of the global North face a demographic decline, for instance, an injection of new people into an aging work force could be to everyone’s benefit. But securing these benefits starts with a choice: Northern nations can relieve pressures on the fastest-warming countries by allowing more migrants to move north across their borders, or they can seal themselves off, trapping hundreds of millions of people in places that are increasingly unlivable. The best outcome requires not only good will and the careful management of turbulent political forces; without preparation and planning, the sweeping scale of change could prove wildly destabilizing."
From "The Great Climate Migration" (NYT).
July 26, 2020
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50 years out. Have you noticed that climate change predictions are always so far into the future that the people making the dire predictions don’t have to see how far off they are...and be held accountable for their incompetence or deceit?
It's good to live in Wisconsin. Lots of water.
We can't do more than a 7-day weather forecast.......but we know that 20% of the earth will be covered with Sahara-like hot spots in 50 years!!
This is beyond stupid. Did you pay for that publication?
The NYT reporters' guide explicitly requires their writers to start with a specific conclusion and then go out and find some facts from reliable "experts" or twist facts or manufacture facts to fill out the story.
Example: They want to push increased and unrestrained immigration into the U.S. Everything surrounding that political conclusion is just fluff intended to deceive readers into thinking that it is supported in reality when it is not.
Funny how "the science" always supports what Democrat Progressives and the NYT have wanted to do all along. Do they follow the science, or do they cherry-pick the science to support what they want to do? I think we know.
I thought it was in a few years. Climate zealots have no credibility. And anyway, in 50 years we will have made great strides in desalination, small nuclear ir other energy sources. Anyone trying to change policy 50 years from now is a street barker.
With respect to immigration, shut up until you are willing to positively control immigration. I’m all for letting the current illegal immigrants and/or dreamers stay IF we can control the borders and remove unlimited anchor babies and chain migration. Until then they can sod off.
Lots of use of the word "could" in the piece.
Al Gore promised us - WITH UNQUESTIONED SCIENCE! - that this would have already happened by now.
oh well. At least Al gore is a Billionaire.
Get your daily fix of climate porn from the NYT. A question for the NYT: would the NYT be in favor of a white exodus from Europe to the US and the African climate refugees move to Europe?
Our recent and ongoing experience with the wildly inaccurate models for the pandemic should have cured people of any reason to rely on the climate models as well. Not one prediction on climate that has been made for the past 30 years or so has come to pass. Neither will this one. It would be far more useful to have an accurate 7-day weather forecast than attempt to tell us what the climate will be in 50-100 years.
More nonsense from the lefty climate warriors.
Two words: Michael Shellenberger.
And yet, and yet, according to this same publication, our newest cities have been created in the south where it is ridiculously hot.
So, if say Phoenix' average temperature goes up 5 degrees someone would notice?
It's a dry heat you know.
"There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." Mark Twain.
Start buying future farm land in Siberia now! (Or at least Saskatchewan.)
Wait a minute. I thought we were going to be dead in 12 years? What the...?
Right. Miami should be underwater by now. According to them. Ditto those islands. And Manhattan. Until they come clean on being wrong about everything Global Warming since 1972, there exists no basis in which to balance belief in what their saying in light of the record. The era of big experts is over.
Do I, CAN I, trust the NYT? No, NO, HELL, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
Is this the same modelling techniques that predicted 2.5 million dead in the US alone?
Should we wear face diapers to stop global warming?
Sorry Althouse but you are such a fan girl of some really dopey stuff like NYT, Andrew Sullivan, the old a blogging heads Michele Goldberg and that stuffy jerk I forget his name. You can probably guess who I mean.
"Should the flight away from hot climates reach the scale that current research suggests is likely..."
Meanwhile, back here on earth...
Phoenix has attracted more new residents than any other city in the United States for the fourth year in a row, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Phoenix remains the nation’s 5th most populated city while its metro area has surpassed Boston’s in becoming the 10th most populated metro area in the U.S.
Phoenix also led the nation in ten-year population growth with an increase of 234,301 residents since the 2010 census.
The U.S. Census Bureau also documented Buckeye as being the second-fastest growing city in the U.S. when measured in terms of population percentage increase over the last 10 years.
In July 2019, Buckeye’s population was estimated to be at 79,620, a 56.6% increase since 2010.
Only Frisco, Texas, was documented to have a faster rate of population growth.
Related Links-
200 new residents a day flocking to metro Phoenix, report finds
Census report ranks Arizona third in population growth rate
Buckeye, Phoenix can both claim title of fastest-growing US city
https://ktar.com/story/3176532/phoenix-leads-nation-in-population-growth-for-4th-consecutive-year/
fake news
now with MODELS that work back from the result
Everyone give up your lawn mower, BBQ, and beef
Do whatever AOC tells you are we are dead in a few millenia
Say, is it going to rain today?
I’m so old I remember when global cooling was settled science and we were all going to starve because the wheat belt would be snowed under.
funny the fix to every Democrat crisis
it to SURRENDER TO GOVT CONTROL
Health Care
Black (in crisis)
The Economy
Just hand it over and the country won't get hurt
Climate modeling is no more accurate than infection rate modeling. Why would you believe any of this crap?
From <1% to 20% in 50 years??? And let me guess, the only solution is...
SOCIALISM!!
Did we learn nothing from Paul Ehrlich's hubris?
By 2075 we'll see the same NYT headline. Only then they'll really mean it.
Middle case of UN population estimate for Africa by 2100: 4 billion. It'll be great, the USA needs to take in 2 billion, to solve our demographic collapse. Just ask Joe Rogan.
In the late 1950s, psychologist Kurt Danziger asked South African high-school and college students to predict the future. Two-thirds of blacks and 80 % of Indians predicted the end of apartheid. Only 4 % of Whites thought the same.
The Whites' predictions were more like fantasies. Because they were the beneficiaries of the existing state of affairs, they were reluctant to predict its end. Likewise, the New York Times readers benefit from open borders and can't imagine a future without free trade and open immigration. Of course, people will simply migrate out of the hot zones to Europe and North America. Duh! We can't stop them from coming because it would be racist!!!
I wonder how the earth every got along with out the NY Times and WaPo writing about the environment. I mean...for a few billion years it must have been a struggle without someone to tell us how to control the evolution of the planet.
Thank God there are Junior Journalists! who can explain to us the struggles of being a full-time planet.
Will Barack’s place on Martha’s Vineyard be underwater then? Wait! Barack will be dead by 2050.
First comment nailed it. CAGW is a total scam.
Hot is from no foliage, not from global warming. It gets cold at night, too.
Release cows at the edges.
I assume the models they used for these predictions will be at least as accurate as the models used to predict the covid-19 pandemic effects.
*snort*
“So, if say Phoenix' average temperature goes up 5 degrees someone would notice?”
Probably. But that isn’t the way it typically works. Rather, the colder places heat up a lot, while hotter places heat up very little. That is the fatal flaw in their modeling. (Ignoring their idiotic CO2 models). Basic thermodynamics. And, of course, given the (current) shape And arrangement of the continents, that means that global warming, if it actually happened, would likely open millions of acres of permafrost to cultivation. They don’t want to talk about that aspect, of course. But the reality is that arable land would likely significantly increase as much of Canada and Siberia would now be capable of supporting farming, and habitation.
“It's a dry heat you know.”
Not so much any more. Al the stupid lawns, pools, and golf courses. Still, I moved from Austin to Phoenix a bit over twenty years ago because the heat there was much more tolerable for me.
“I’m so old I remember when global cooling was settled science and we were all going to starve because the wheat belt would be snowed under.”
So, now they are panicking because the wheat belt would significantly increase in size, as parts of Canada and Siberia were opened to cultivation.
Did somebody miss the fact that the Sahara is turning green?
50 years out. Have you noticed that climate change predictions are always so far into the future that the people making the dire predictions don’t have to see how far off they are...and be held accountable for their incompetence or deceit?
Not always. Most of Gore's predictions have already failed, but the Chicken Littles simply don't care.
I remember reading in the Chicago Tribune that Illinois would look like Oklahoma during the dust bowl by 1988. The experts at the University of Illinois said so, and it was irreversible at the time of the article.
It will obviously be necessary to ration air conditioning in Phoenix, etc. — With exemptions for Party Officials, of course.
an injection of new people into an aging work force could be to everyone’s benefit.
Like this! Africa For Norway / Radi-Aid
By 2070, the kind of extremely hot zones, like in the Sahara, that now cover less than 1 percent of the earth’s land surface could cover nearly a fifth of the land..."
could, yes; could
of course; IF Pigs had Winds, They could Fly South for The Winter
Help me out here!
Does this prove global warming, or is it more evidence of global cooling??
I’m old enough to remember learning about the coming ice age In junior high due to man made pollution. You’ll excuse me for being a little skeptical of these claims from the experts.
an injection of new people into an aging work force could be to everyone’s benefit.
Yeah, this has worked great for Europe. /s
50 years out. Have you noticed that climate change predictions are always so far into the future
Could be worse
Nuclear Fusion is Just Twenty Years Away... And, has been; for FIFTY FUCKING YEARS
Autonomous cars are Just Four Years Away... And, have been; for FIFTEEN FUCKING YEARS
Who knows what the sun will do by then ? We do know it’s in a Maunder Minimum now That is threatening severe global cooling and cooling’s resulting strange weather patterns from extreme Southerly Jet Stream dips of cold air. As for the Marxist’s Fake CO2 science, that has no effect at all. All Of their Weather control taxes and tripling Of utility bills are pure theft done to enslave us.
The first Earth Day was fifty years ago. None of the dire predictions from then came true. Fifty years from now “climate deniers” will point to this article as another failed prediction as they fight against World Ending Global Cooling.
"Northern nations can relieve pressures on the fastest-warming countries by allowing more migrants to move north across their borders"
True. Russia first. Let'm go to Siberia. Plenty of space.
The walls are closing in!
Imagine that, the New York Times printing a fable as if it were hard news. A fable that just happens to support their partisan political interests. These are now the only kinds of stories they see fit to print. One of the reasons they are coming out against “intellectualizing” stuff is because this climate nonsense won’t stand up to it.
This is meant to lay the groundwork for a new basis for immigration asylum: "Climate Asylum".
Somewhere, in my collection of images, I have photos and screen shots of newspapers going back to the 1980s declaring that we only have 10 years before hitting a tipping point.
Now I ask you, if I told you in 1985 we only had ten years, but then in 1995 I told you again we only had ten years, would you believe me? You shouldn't.
If I again told you the same thing in 2005, would you believe me?
And again in 2015?
At some point you have to register that they've been selling the same bullshit for 40 years. You can either choose to be taken in by it, again, or come to the realization that they're lying to you and go on with life.
Why do people like dry heat? Who likes to feel parched and withered no matter how much water is consumed? I like a little humidity.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/25/humans-inhabited-north-america-in-the-depths-of-the-last-ice-age-but-didnt-thrive-until-the-climate-warmed/
When they say migrants should move north, do they mean northern China (since this is one of the countries pumping out massive amounts of CO2)? Or are they just talking exclusively about North America and northern Europe?
"Why do people like dry heat?"
Easy. It lowers the subjective perception of the temperature. Your perspiration evaporates efficiently and cools you.
I recall as a kid climbing out of an unheated swimming pool in the summer in Desert Hot Springs. Temperature at least 100 degrees and low humidity. You're dry in moments, even a bit chilly until you quickly warm up again. Way more comfortable than the thick, heavy feeling of say, August Florida heat and humidity
"Many will dig in, suffering through heat, hunger and political chaos..."
Yeah, sounds like Portland these days.
"By 2070, the kind of extremely hot zones, like in the Sahara, that now cover less than 1 percent of the earth’s land surface could cover nearly a fifth of the land..." so we don't need to do a damn thing different until 2069 since it isn't possible it could happen that 20% of the earth's land surface could be like the Sahara before 2070. Damn good to know we are ultra-safe for many more decades, with no possibility of anything going haywire.
...69.
Ha.
Is 69 the age when life-long grifters realize a new generation of narcissists care not about others' plights?
"Why do people like dry heat?"
Your sweat evaporates, cooling you in the process. And I can hang out my clothes on my patio clothesline and they'll be dry in less time than it takes in a dryer.
Before there was the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, there was the NYT Climate Apocalypse Effect. And a century earlier the Millerites. People never learn.
I appreciate that our gracious host reads the NYT so I don't have to.
"Why do people like dry heat?"
It cools down at night, with no moisture to hang onto the heat, so that early mornings can be quite pleasant.
There are solid predictions that are less than 50 years out.
If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from the year 2055 to 2080, according to these projections. This rise in temperature is not expected to be uniform around the globe but to be greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as much as 20 degrees, and lower at the Equator.
The rise in global temperature is predicted to cause a thermal expansion of the oceans and to melt glaciers and polar ice, thus causing sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the 2050. Scientists have already detected a slight rise in sea levels. At the same time, heat would cause inland waters to evaporate more rapidly, thus lowering the level of bodies of water such as the Great Lakes.
Wait. It gets worse, and much sooner than 50 years.
A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2030.
Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ″eco- refugees,′ ′ threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.
He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.
As the warming melts polar icecaps, ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations, Brown told The Associated Press in an interview on Wednesday.
Coastal regions will be inundated; one-sixth of Bangladesh could be flooded, displacing a fourth of its 90 million people. A fifth of Egypt’s arable land in the Nile Delta would be flooded, cutting off its food supply, according to a joint UNEP and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study.
″Ecological refugees will become a major concern, and what’s worse is you may find that people can move to drier ground, but the soils and the natural resources may not support life. Africa doesn’t have to worry about land, but would you want to live in the Sahara?″ he said.
Oh. Wait, what? I lied?
The first quote was made in 1988 and was supposed to have come true by 2025. And it is completely, totally, laughably wrong in every regard. Perhaps most egregiously bogus is Great Lakes water levels, which are now at record highs.. And there's more. If you want a perfect example of stentorian certainty, read this abstract
As for the second quote, it was made in 1989, with the "tipping point" being 2000.
Of course Warmenists are chucking their apocalyptic predictions further into the future. In the process of doing so, it would be greatly clarifying if they explained why their previous iron clad predictions needed so much postdating.
"I appreciate that our gracious host reads the NYT so I don't have to.”
You wouldn’t have to anyway. Do you feel some need to read the DNC newsletter?
In order to be consistent, Ken B must visit this thread and call us all science deniers who want to kill grandchildren...
Because he fucking loves science and models that always work to the benefit of Big Government cvnts.
Also, fuck your freedoms!
For the first time since they started polling on the question in 1965, Gallup finds Americans want more, not less, immigration.
Less immigration peaked in 1995 at 65%, and has declined more or less steadily since then to 28%
More immigration flatlined at 7% from 1965 through 1995, and has trended upward since, to 34% in 2020. In the same timeframe, favoring the status quo has increased from 24% to 36%, so that today 70% favor the same or increased levels of immigration.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/313106/americans-not-less-immigration-first-time.aspx
Freeman Hunt said...
Why do people like dry heat? Who likes to feel parched and withered no matter how much water is consumed? I like a little humidity.
I have lived in Tucson for two years now, going on my third summer. The relatively dry heat is much more comfortable than the humid July and August heat in the Midwest. (One year in Nashville was the absolute worst for heat and humidity). The trick is to drink a lot of water because you are less aware of evaporation.
We had increased humidity last week with lower temps and it really wore me out.
Dry heat.
I remember the first time I spent a Summer day in Las Vegas- it was 105 degrees that afternoon, and I was a surprised to find that was the temperature- it didn't feel like it was that hot. For me, a 100+ degree day had a dew point of at least 60-65 where I grew up in the mid South- when it was only 90 degrees, the dew points were often in the low to mid 70s.
NYT newsroom: "Hey, the real threat of COVID-19 has made people forget all about the fake threat of climate change. Plus we need something scary to distract them from the really scary things happening in Portland, Seattle, Denver, Chicago . . . .
"Give our readers a dose of climate change narrative! Stat."
It’s the diversity of views and intelligent good faith back-and-forth debate that makes this blog so special. How nice that Althouse is a Safe Space for climate change deniers.
Pour on the hate.
Well, if you import Africa's population to Europe, you don't get Europe- you get Africa in the end. Europe isn't made of magic dirt.
"Could happen" is a phrase commonly employed by climate alarmists.
Bob Smith said...
I’m so old I remember when global cooling was settled science and we were all going to starve because the wheat belt would be snowed under.
*********
Well, there's always been "winter wheat".
Bob Smith said...
I’m so old I remember when global cooling was settled science and we were all going to starve because the wheat belt would be snowed under.
*********
Well, there's always been "winter wheat".
what a joke.
Happy talk and clap trap--well it's not "happy talk"--it's just the NYT's version of "happy talk" when the world will come to an end tomorrow and women and children will be hurt worst. Oooh---wait, I'm not up to date LGBTQQ will be hurt even worse.
I think that if we could just bring back Time magazine's dire prediction of a "New Ice Age" which they published in 1975 we could cool off all of that Saharafication.
Well I believe it, but these changed have been going in how long now? And it was probably cultivation and logging that caused drought in Mesopotamia and the Valley of Mexico.
But what to do? I think they want us in permanent lockdown.
Yancey Ward said...
Dry heat.
I remember the first time I spent a Summer day in Las Vegas- it was 105 degrees that afternoon, and I was a surprised to find that was the temperature- it didn't feel like it was that hot. For me, a 100+ degree day had a dew point of at least 60-65 where I grew up in the mid South- when it was only 90 degrees, the dew points were often in the low to mid 70s.
*********************
Yes, that's hwy the term "global temperatures" is so meaningless.
A hundred degree day in Death Valley in not perceived to be anywhere near as hot as a 100 degree day in Delhi just before the arrival of the monsoon. The difference is in what's called enthalpy, or the heat energy of the air AND the water vapor it contains.
Referring to air temps w/o reference to their heat content is bogus.
@steve Uhr: funny, innit, that you dimiss as "hate" anything you disagree with but lack the info or the wit to counter
For me, a 100+ degree day had a dew point of at least 60-65 where I grew up in the mid South- when it was only 90 degrees, the dew points were often in the low to mid 70s.
this morning at 6:10 it was 74F That would be the dew point. Your night time low (if there is dew) is the dew point. As a generality, add roughly 20F and you get your daytime high. So that gets me 94F with a 74 dew point. Tropical. Overcast and light rain now, and 85F
The prediction for 50 years in the future will come true, just like the climate disasters and massive starvation predicted in 1970. Read the "Population Bomb". The Author yet today, stands behind the entirety his scholarly work.
Climate Change is a harness and a bit--just another way for assholes to control you. Pound those bastards into plowshares.
Uh oh, apparently the rioting, BLM, Russian collusion, and Covid are not working! Break out the climate scare mongering stories, stat!
Is it a coincidence that this story appears a few days after the latest poll numbers showing Trump's significant improvement versus Biden?
steve uhr says;
"How nice that Althouse is a Safe Space for climate change deniers."
Actually, many of us got our start denying Nuclear Winter (NW), back in the 70's. After NW failed to arrive, we segued into denying the Greenhouse Effect (GE). The "climate scientists" finally admitted that their understanding of the way a greenhouse works was faulty, but they continued to insist that we were facing Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), which we were happy to deny. Then the ice caps failed to melt according to Gore's timetable, and now we seem to be imperiled by "Climate Change" (CC). I am not really sure how CC differs from AGW, since CC does not seem to involve any Global Cooling (GC). It seems like it is just AGW without the falsifiable predictions. But if you would like to explain the difference, I am pretty sure we can figure out a way to deny CC as well.
Yeah, humidity, temperature, enthalpy, the whole works. In Colorado Springs 105°F doesn't feel hot, unlike 80°F in CNY. I've been told by my son who lives there that a frequent cause of tourist death there is spontaneous sublimation.
Whatever you've had to drink when you're visiting there- it isn't enough- have more.
"But after the flood, the rain stopped again, and everything died. Jorge knew then that if he didn’t get out of Guatemala, his family might die, too."
That's as far as I got. It reads like a third grade book report, but it has nice pictures.
Blogger bbkingfish said..."For the first time since they started polling on the question in 1965, Gallup finds Americans want more, not less, immigration."
Now do ILLEGAL immigration.
I can't recall when exactly but a few years back there was a rash of stories about how lake Michigan was at the lowest levels it had ever been, and that it might soon dry up! And- long abandoned piers and wharves started to appear. Seems our forefathers were so stupid they put the docks UNDERWATER! Or maybe- the water levels were once much lower- take your pick.
Same with Lake Ontario. A few years ago at record lows- it'll never recover. Now people on the shoreline want more water released to head down the St Lawrence to the sea because the record high (as long as records have been kept) level is eroding the shorelines.
Last year ice floes came out of Lake Erie and destroyed shoreline homes.
The NYT reports anecdotes and “models” that tell us that Guatemalans would rather move to the US than toil in subsistence agriculture in a mountain environment. That is true science. Why does the NYT post glitchy html pages with the world spinning and paragraphs sliding around all over. Can’t any of their readers handle formatted text anymore? Very irritating to me.
The US is rated in the lower half of all countries in quality of life by UN agencies, but everyone still wants to come here.
Lets do a bit of simple, 6th grade, arithmetic here:
20% of the world's land (14% of the total) is going to increase to Sahara like temperatures. Let's say that means a 20 degree rise.
He Skipper tells us that world temps are expected to increase by 3-9 degrees in that period. Not clear but I am guess he means all temps including oceans. But let's ignore the oceans for the moment.
If overall average temps are going to rise by 6deg and 20% is going to rise by 20 degrees, that means that the remaining 80% is going to get significantly colder.
Arithmetic is really hard. That's why these people go to J-School. Forget about any math at even the simplest level, they can't even do simple arithmetic.
I think that somewhere there is a "scientist" chortling to a colleague "Hey, Samantha, look what I got a reporter to publish! Let's see you top that."
John Henry
What were climate experts in 1980 or 1990 projecting for 2020? If I remember it was pretty dire. These characters can't even forecast five years in advance with any accuracy. Never make policy on 50 year estimates.
Steve Uhr can't even get current events right "Trump is besties with China!" thinks we should pay attention to events that are going to happen 50 years in the future according to models that can't even predict the past.
Have you ever taken any science classes, Steve? In HS or college?
BTW: The entire Arctic ice cap melted 20 years ago and nobody even noticed.
It did melt, didn't it? Algore promised in his book that it would be completely gone by 2000. Surely a genius such as he could not be wrong, could he?
John Henry
Josephblau notes: The US is rated in the lower half of all countries in quality of life by UN agencies, but everyone still wants to come here.
Yes, strange, isn't it? Are these people just gluttons for punishment?
"Why does the NYT post glitchy html pages with the world spinning and paragraphs sliding around all over. Can’t any of their readers handle formatted text anymore? Very irritating to me."
"Reader View" is a God Send. Wonder how long it will be before they take it away?
WOW! SOMETHING TO BE WORRIED ABOUT! I will go out on a limb and posit that it can all be solved with more government control by the right sort of people.
@steve uhr
It’s the diversity of views and intelligent good faith back-and-forth debate that makes this blog so special. How nice that Althouse is a Safe Space for climate change deniers.
Climate change deniers? Here? Did I miss something? Surely, you can back that up.
Right?
"steve uhr said...
"How nice that Althouse is a Safe Space for climate change deniers."
How so? Entry is open to everyone on the internet. You're here. You could provide reasoned arguments, data, and citations. But no, you go straight to name-calling.
We had a moderate hurricane Irma, hit Puerto Rico in 2017. 3 weeks later Maria came across PR as a Cat 4. Cat 5 when it came ashore near my house.
Everybody was using that as evidence of how horrible global whatsit is. Oh the horror, the horror!
It was pretty bad, Maria scared the shit out of me. Irma I slept through.
But I've been in PR since 71. During that period we've average a Cat 2 or greater hurricane every 8-10 years. Last one that hit the main island was 1998 so 2 in 2017 just maintained the average.
Maria was not even the worst hurricane to hit. San Ciprian in 1933 was significantly stronger than Maria.
The biggest problem with Maria was that the govt utility had been used as a piggy bank for corruption for so many years that it was at the point where a strong breeze would have blown it down. That, not Maria and/or Irma is why I was without power for 4 months.
Nothing at all to do with global whatsit.
John Henry
Blogger wholelottasplainin' said...
The difference is in what's called enthalpy, or the heat energy of the air AND the water vapor it contains.
Don't forget the diffusivity effect as well.
John Henry
@Jupiter:
Then the ice caps failed to melt according to Gore's timetable, and now we seem to be imperiled by "Climate Change" (CC).
And now it is Climate Chaos.
Please do try to keep up.
"As the United States and other parts of the global North face a demographic decline, for instance, an injection of new people into an aging work force could be to everyone’s benefit."
As always, the New York Times shows their empathy by focusing on the needs of their readership for cheap landscapers, household servants, and sex workers.
@Darkisland:
Hey Skipper tells us that world temps are expected to increase by 3-9 degrees in that period. Not clear but I am guess he means all temps including oceans. But let's ignore the oceans for the moment.
NB: I was satirizing predictions made around 1990 that should have become true by now; instead, they are so wrong as to give the very concept of wrong itself a bad name.
And I think by "world temps" they mean global atmospheric average increase from that of 1987-ish.
BTW, here is another tell that Climate Sciencists are either lying, or incompetent. The goal of combatting climate change is to limit temperatures to a 2ºC increase over pre-industrial temperatures; i.e., around 1500.
Ignore, for the moment, that we could know the global average temperature five hundred years ago to within a degree.
Instead, note what isn't said: what the global average temperature would be now, given the 1500AD level of human activity. That is the meaningful figure of merit, and they don't mention it ever, because they don't have a clue what it would be.
Well now, if you were paying attention in the mid '70s you would know that we've been dead for some time now due to all the midwest's aquifer's depletion because big agra pumped it out down to the brackish fertilizer polluted remainder. On the bright side, a Yellowbeard is never more dangerous than when he's dead! Run on apologies in advance.
I think we need this heat to finally get out of the Ice Age these same people predicted 50 year ago.
"How nice that Althouse is a Safe Space for climate change deniers."
Nobody is denying the climate changes, you dishonest hack. It's been changing for 4.6 billion years.
STFU, and deal with it.
For the first time since they started polling on the question in 1965, when America's population was 194 million including under ten million immigrants Gallup finds Americans who now number 328 million including over 45 million immigrants want more, not less, immigration.
an injection of new people into an aging work force could be to everyone’s benefit
Look how well it worked for the Seminoles.
These are the same "scientists" who whose models told us that COVID-19 casualties would be a couple of orders of magnitude higher than they actually are. They speak with a great deal of certainty and then invariably prove to be way off the mark. They have used up any vestigial reservoir of trust in "science" that the public ever had.
"If overall average temps are going to rise by 6deg and 20% is going to rise by 20 degrees, that means that the remaining 80% is going to get significantly colder."
Why?
In 2000, the U.K.'s Independent newspaper predicted that snow would be a "thing of the past" in 2020. Four years later, the Pentagon predicted that Britain would have a Siberian climate in 2020. The actual climate hasn't changed. Climate model fail!
The historical record over the last 3,000 years shows cyclical cooling and warming with LOWER peak temperatures over time, not higher. The temperature is decreasing at -0.137 deg/millenium. It was warmer during the Minoan era, Roman Era, the Mideival era than it is now.
The sunspot prediction is for no sunspots starting about 2050, ushing in a new cooling period.
The climate modelers don't understand what they are trying to model. Modeling airplane aerodynamics is difficult enough, for an object only 200-ft by 200-ft. The climate modelers are trying to model hundreds of processes for an object that's 25,000-miles around. Unless they include the effect of changing solar behavior, they'll never succeed and their predictions aren't worth the paper their printed on. In fact, toilet paper has more worth than their papers.
steve uhr: "How nice that Althouse is a Safe Space for climate change deniers."
JUpiter: "Actually, many of us got our start denying Nuclear Winter (NW), back in the 70's. After NW failed to arrive, we segued into denying the Greenhouse Effect (GE)."
The list of hoax crises Li'l stevie and his band of morons has attempted to foist upon us is endless.
The Population Bomb.
Peak Oil.
Nuclear Winter (as mentioned above).
All intended to deliver the same thing as the russia collusion hoax (which steve uhr still believes): marxist control over the nation.
History really does begin anew every 15 minutes for these schmucks and they are always, ALWAYS, shocked when it doesn't begin anew for everyone else.
News of the future.
99% of predictive computer models use questionable data. [Yeah, I just pulled that 99% out of thin air but it's probably as accurate as most computer models].
I'm betting on no...
Even if it does my cheap waterfront tundra investment will thaw and pay off big time
“BTW, here is another tell that Climate Sciencists are either lying, or incompetent. The goal of combatting climate change is to limit temperatures to a 2ºC increase over pre-industrial temperatures; i.e., around 1500.
“Ignore, for the moment, that we could know the global average temperature five hundred years ago to within a degree.”
Until the advent of satellite based temperature recordings, their attempts at determining a global temperature were ludicrous, at best. They generated what can best be thought of as statistical nonsense. Indeed, Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick turned out to be just bad statistics. What we don’t know, really, is whether he should have taken a remedial statistics class (or better, just hired a competent statistician) or he was deliberately trying to deceive. Making things worse, “climate scientists” for years normed the satellite results to correspond to the statistical nonsense they generated from terrestrial recordings. NOAA is still fudging their figures, introducing global warming, where there is none in the underlying data.
Blogger Temujin said...
Wait a minute. I thought we were going to be dead in 12 years? What the...?7/26/20, 10:10 AM
I heard Joe Biden state 9 years - left?
The commentators who point out the illiterate scientific gibberish being pushed by scientists who need grant money, or are about to publish something which garners them more money, are 100% correct. Yet these same scientists and the narrative snake-oil salesman at the NYT never look at the advancement of technology. In 50 years, water will not become a problem, because technological breakthroughs will solve it. Just look back 50 years from today - amazing progress on all fronts making life better. The scientists who push "Climate Change" are doing so for power and money - end of story.
We can't do more than a 7-day weather forecast
If that.
I live in Atlanta where a forecast of snow closes schools, brings the tarps off of the piles salt and grit and gets the dumptrucks warmed up. Nine times out of ten no snow comes.
Except this year. We had one day of snow. I woke up on a Saturday to see the lawn covered in snow. NOT a single forecast was for snow. Totally surprised everyone. Luckly, since it was a Saturday, no harm done.
But they can't even get a ONE DAY forecast right!
steve uhr could make it an "unsafe for deniers" space by explaining why we are wrong. For some reason that never happens though.
The casual line about how, well, "North America and Europe are suffering demographic collapse anyway, so why not let in all these people from the rest of the world, where they have more young people than they know what to do with?" -- that's what gets me. "Replacement theory" is supposed to be a far-Right fantasy conspiracy theory, yet here is the NYT promoting it in broad daylight. Let the peoples of North America and Europe (not, as others have pointed out, northern Russia or China or the 'stans) build up a civilization; encourage them by any possible means to stop breeding; and then point to the people of the rest of the globe, who have not stopped breeding, and say, "See? You have all the labor force you want, right here! Just let them in." That's not a "conspiracy theory"; it's the editorial page of the NYT. Or the WaPo.
This is by no means its first appearance there. I remember in particular a WaPo article a few months back about the poor Japanese, who keep aging and finding ways to take care of their elderly with robots and such, when obviously the correct thing to do is import non-Japanese caretakers. How very silly the Japanese are not to have figured this out! But perhaps, just perhaps, the Japanese do this because they want to remain Japanese.
Yes, I do realize that there are some people who hold onto a conspiracy-minded version of this. But a few white guys shouting "Jews will not replace us!:" in Charlottesville are nothing in comparison to the actual fact that all of Europe and Japan are below replacement-level fertility, that the US is just at replacement-level; and that China's "one-child" policy is by now so ingrained in the populace that you can remove the ban and the demographic reality (for Han Chinese, anyway) still persists.
In Gibbon's "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" Volume 1, he spends a couple pages discussing significant climate changes before and during the Empire.* Based upon extensive contemporary written records.
All before 1500.
Which the Warmenists, umm Chaosists, neither acknowledge, nor can explain.
*Download from Project Gutenberg, search on "ice".
"Pour on the hate. “
You know who always talks about “hate”? People who hate. I don’t see what is anything less than loving in wanting government to do the right thing regarding these nonsense fears of a climate that has always been changing. Where I sit the ice was a mile thick almost within the span of human history. You have to keep your options open or you are going to be like the goalie who gets a sunburn from the red light because he falls for the first deke every time.
Fascinating. They’re looking at the demographic tables, seeing the decline everywhere but in Africa where population is still exploding, and spinning a story that will eventually explain why the misery in Africa, why it’s our fault and why it means we need accept tens of millions of African immigrants. I have to admire the creativity and ambitious forward thinking, a sort of prophylactic narrative to prevent other common sense explanations of reality take root. It’s not just African Americans who have no agency and twist in the winds of systemic white supremacy and fickle white fragility—now it’s the entire continent of Africa that’s being destroyed by white supremacist civilization.
The green shoots of recovery are showing up on satellite images of regions including the Sahel, a semi-desert zone bordering the Sahara to the south that stretches some 2,400 miles (3,860 kilometers).
Images taken between 1982 and 2002 revealed extensive regreening throughout the Sahel, according to a new study in the journal Biogeosciences.
The study suggests huge increases in vegetation in areas including central Chad and western Sudan.
The transition may be occurring because hotter air has more capacity to hold moisture, which in turn creates more rain, said Martin Claussen of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, who was not involved in the new study.
"The water-holding capacity of the air is the main driving force," Claussen said.
While satellite images can’t distinguish temporary plants like grasses that come and go with the rains, ground surveys suggest recent vegetation change is firmly rooted. In the eastern Sahara area of southwestern Egypt and northern Sudan, new trees—such as acacias—are flourishing, according to Stefan Kröpelin, a climate scientist at the University of Cologne’s Africa Research Unit in Germany.
"Shrubs are coming up and growing into big shrubs. This is completely different from having a bit more tiny grass," said Kröpelin, who has studied the region for two decades.
...
Now you have people grazing their camels in areas which may not have been used for hundreds or even thousands of years. You see birds, ostriches, gazelles coming back, even sorts of amphibians coming back," he said.
"The trend has continued for more than 20 years. It is indisputable - National Geographic
Maybe steve uhr can explain why more grazable land in Africa is a bad thing that will force an exodus. Only a hater would want to end a drought that killed 100,000 Africans, I. guess.
I love how they call this a “surprising” benefit of global warming, when CO2 fertilization is well known, and commonly used in greenhouses, for example.
Climate alarmists have the amazing ability to ignore empirically obvious facts seen by their own eyes and to forget anything that doesn’t comport with what their own ears heard. See no......hear no......
But they sure can speak lots of noxious nonsense.
One such friend of mine chortled this week that all fossil fuel usage will be 100% gone in 20 years. I advised him not to make any investment decisions on that basis.
mockturtle said...
99% of predictive computer models use questionable data. [Yeah, I just pulled that 99% out of thin air but it's probably as accurate as most computer models].
well,
86& of americans will believe any statistic you put in front of them
I mentioned this to my community college instructor; and he laughed, and said: That's probably true!
I'm old enough to remember when "questioning authority" was a good thing, but now it just means you're a hater. Good people love authority, and would never dream of questioning it!
Go here. Be sure to look at the date of the article.
https://apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
The list of hoax crises Li'l stevie and his band of morons has attempted to foist upon us is endless.
The Population Bomb.
Peak Oil.
Nuclear Winter (as mentioned above).
All intended to deliver the same thing as the russia collusion hoax (which steve uhr still believes): marxist control over the nation.
and we found out (in the '90's), that the Soviets were on LAUNCH ON WARNING all through the 80's
even though they were using THEIR excuses for Warning devices
which, considering things like
ReForGer, which included Able Archer 83
and, ONE MONTH EARLIER; 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident
AND
Norwegian rocket incident
I'm Convinced; that The Reason WHY people worry today, is that there is NOTHING to worry about
THE Reasin WHY people did NOT worry in the 80's, is 'cause we all figured WE WERE GONNA DIE
"We can't do more than a 7-day weather forecast.......but we know that 20% of the earth will be covered with Sahara-like hot spots in 50 years!!"
Weather is not climate.
Al Gore used pictures of Florida half under water, but according to IPCC projections, this will take about 500 years. There is no basis in any reasonable scenario for what the NYT claims--it sounds more like greenpeace fantasies. To get to a hot state like the NYT claims (ie about 8 degrees in 50 years) we would need a warming of 1.6deg C per decade, whereas 1.2 deg C per 120 years is about what we have experienced. It is climate porn.
"Phoenix has attracted more new residents than any other city in the United States for the fourth year in a row, according to the U.S. Census Bureau."
Who ever said people are not foolish?
Weather is not climate.
Holy Fuck Cookie!!
Digital music isn't analog, but it is. The really sad part is.......you won't understand this argument.
At one time, I respected Cookie because I thought he wrestled with his convictions. I was wrong.
"Right. Miami should be underwater by now."
More and more, it is.
And yet, people keep coming.
Cook (Kommie Klown nose off): "Weather is not climate."
And yet lefties just like you declare every hot day and hurricane and every other weather event another indicator of AGW.
And you've been doing it for years.
tim in vermont: "steve uhr could make it an "unsafe for deniers" space by explaining why we are wrong. For some reason that never happens though."
Li'l stevie is holding back on all his "evidence" for AGW in the same way that Adam Schiff-ty is simply not releasing all that "evidence" that is in "plain sight" for the russia collusion that never happened.
BTW, according to the lunatics like Li'l Stevie, we were supposed to have begun our snow-free winters years ago.....
Just another lefty lie down the memory hole.
If I could trust the NYT with facts, I might worry.
E books, Streaming television, smart phones, fracking, 250 bu. Average Corn yields. 70 bu Average soybean yields, fiber optics, uber
These are just a few things NOBODY predicted 20 years before their appearance. These are things experts in each of these specialties could not predict 20 years in the future, advancements that are now normal could not be imagined then.
Making predictions are hard. Especially about things in the future.
"Science is real!"
Is the left's new slogan.
Scientific theory is constantly changing. What we thought we knew yesterday.. can turn upside down tomorrow.
The left are stuck because they WANT oppressive solutions that feed the green D-beast.
Recall all those companies that got our tax dollars under Obama that are belly-up.
More please! oh....
I recommend leftists watch Michal Moore's latest film on green energy.
Experts and models. Where have we heard those things before?
[T]here was major decline in temperatures from the 1930s to the 1960s [while] CO2 emissions went up constantly meanwhile, in utter lack of correlation not fitting the theory of CO2 being the primary climate driver. What does fit for more correlation there is solar activity - both solar irradiance and the solar-driven interplanetary magnetic-field affecting comic rays.
Scientific studies confirm that "Its the Sun Stupid." And nobody is going to change anything caused by the sun but acknowledging "what is" will shut down major rent-seeking by so-called environmental scientists and their political and financial friends.
No one is fleeing because of heat. They are fleeing shitholes.
Have this people noticed what has happened in Europe since Merkel decided to encourage migration?
I like to think that the current global warming is delaying the coming ice age.
JaimeRoberto: "Experts and models. Where have we heard those things before?"
Playboy mansion?
"an injection of new people into an aging work force could be to everyone’s benefit."
We wouldn't need immigrants if we stopped killing the native sons. Stop Abortion Now! 623,471 abortions in 2016. Of these abortions 35% are the children of the black community which is 13% of the population and declining.
"Making predictions are hard. Especially about things in the future."
I predict the predictions won't be stopping anytime soon. I also predict forthcoming predictions (aside from this one) won't be any more accurate than past predictions were.
“Blogger Robert Cook said...
"Right. Miami should be underwater by now."
More and more, it is.”
Do me a couple favors.
First, search on [tybee island nyt]
Read the article.
Then search on [tybee island flood control plan]
Go to page nine or so and look at the tide gauge records that start in the mid 1800’s.
Then tell us were global warming change chaos starts.
I predict no response.
More tyranny of the "experts".
"Northern nations can relieve pressures on the fastest-warming countries by allowing more migrants to move north across their borders, or they can seal themselves off, trapping hundreds of millions of people in places that are increasingly unlivable. "
Maybe I misunderstand the piece-- the excerpt, I don't have NYT access-- but it seems to be saying that the present flood of emigrants is caused by climate change? Does it offer a particle of evidence for that?
Seattle and Portland have moderate temperatures and are very welcoming of immigrants, so I hear. I'm sure they'd both love another 50 million negroes moving in, to replace the aging rioters there.
Who ever said people are not foolish?
@Cookie, damn right! For instance 18,804,000 people live in New a York City. That’s pretty stupid right there.
There must be a special kind of mental defect that causes people to want to believe stupid crap like this.
If my math is right, that is 50 years away, like the comparison between the world in 1970 and today. The world would get there gradually and not abruptly. To assume that one out of 3 people would be impacted assumes today’s numbers. Moronic at best.
Until the advent of satellite based temperature recordings, their attempts at determining a global temperature were ludicrous, at best.
The Medieval Warm Period was an historical fact. As was the "Little Ice Age." The global warming scam artists are being made fools by the evidence. No self respecting scam artist allows real evidence. It is amusing that they still find fools like Cook.
they'll be wrong again.
Predictions are awesome tools. You can make completely unfounded claims with impunity. Since there is no way to prove you wrong yet, you can really go off and say all kinds of crazy shit. These particular predictions could be true, and if you think them possibly, which I do, then what you need to do is make and save lots of money. Money = choice. In the reality of life on earth money is what you want. It the only thing that prepares you for almost anything external. Well, money,... and a gun, actually.
One of my favorite stories (gosh, I hope it’s true) is that John Von Neumann opined that powerful, large-scale computers were not feasible due to the “law of large numbers”: the mean interval between vacuum tubes burning out would be too short for useful operation — plus’s the heat generation and power demand. He was a true genius, but didn’t invent the transistor.
I've spent the last year and a half looking for a home to buy in South Florida, east and west coast. I was surprised that I couldn't find anything beachfront for less than a few million. I figured they'd be giving them away.
"And now it is Climate Chaos.
Please do try to keep up."
Do I have to figure out what it's supposed to mean, before I can deny it?
I don't know why anyone believes any polls on any controversial subject any longer. Admitting to a nosey stranger that you support President Trump or don't accept the mainstream view of climate "science" is a good way to get a brick through your window, or your tires slashed, or your skull split with a bike lock.
We are at war and we are behaving as such. "Loose lips sink ships", remember that? Except now they get your house burned down by a leftist mob with your children inside.
IF the southern hemisphere cannot support its existing population, is it suitable for colonization by different societies that can support themselves under dire extremes? I'm asking for the Chinese, who openly want to colonize and repopulate with Chinese at least Australia and Africa, and would gladly overrun India if it weren't for those damned Indian nukes.
Increasingly Unlivable? Other than Antarctica and the middle of the ocean, is any place on earth truly unlivable in 2020? They are writing like modern technology doesn't exist. They've heard of Dubai, right?
“ Blogger Tommy Duncan said...
Lots of use of the word "could" in the piece.”
It’s how they roll.
After all, I could win lotto tomorrow. I could be named sexiest man alive next week. I could los 20 pounds by the end of the year.
All true statements.
bbkingfish said...
For the first time since they started polling on the question in 1965, Gallup finds Americans want more, not less, immigration.
So, bbk, you state-you prate, you boast-that ever since 1965, increased immigration has been rammed down the throat of the American people, and only now do they accept it? Does that then justify the ramming?
Big Mike said...
Who ever said people are not foolish?
@Cookie, damn right! For instance 18,804,000 people live in New a York City. That’s pretty stupid right there.
7/26/20, 7:37 PM
Here's foolish for you: Bob feels he has no interest in civil order, let the riots roam. He seems to have no complaint with Cuomo's or de Blasio's handling of the COVID crisis.
However, there are indications that 450,000 people have left New York, around 5% of the population. It may be worse, census data response is 45% short of projected.
What Cook may not have considered is: after NYC exceeds a 5% vacancy rental rate,
RENT STABILIZATION ENDS
And he will be paying market rent for his choice UWS pad.
Of course, market rent may drop...but then maybe I can afford a place.
Why is the supposition that sub-Saharan and Central/South American peoples will move north to avoid the heat? Why not south? Seems racist.
Since the 70s, public school social studies text books have put forth the idea that the so-called lost civilizations of places like the Indus River valley, central America, and Mesopotamia, were lost because of the environmental sins of the people. Either they cut down too many trees, or planted too much corn, or dug too many irrigation canals, or something. The clear implication was that what ever it was,it was human's fault. The climate couldn't just up and change by itself. Invaders didn't just kill everybody. And, of course, we were in danger of doing the same thing if we didn't get on board the environmentalist/Earth Day band wagon.
Each generation of school kids thinks they are first ones to hear this story, and it's their responsibility to save the world. Hence,Greta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg.
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