"... of a potentially greater depression than in the 1930s, with no assurance of any progress yet visible. If we keep this up for six months, we could well keep the deaths relatively low and stable, but the economy would all but disintegrate. Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true. The previously unimaginable levels of unemployment and the massive debt-fueled outlays to lessen the blow simply cannot continue indefinitely. We have already, in just two months, wiped out all the job gains since the Great Recession. In six months? The wreckage boggles the mind. All of this is why, [on] some days, I can barely get out of bed. It is why protests against our total shutdown, while puny now, will doubtless grow. The psychological damage — not counting the physical toll — caused by this deeply unnatural way of life is going to intensify.... Damon Linker put it beautifully this week: 'A life without forward momentum is to a considerable extent a life without purpose — or at least the kind of purpose that lifts our spirits and enlivens our steps as we traverse time. Without the momentum and purpose, we flounder. A present without a future is a life that feels less worth living, because it’s a life haunted by a shadow of futility.'... We keep postponing herd immunity, if such a thing is even possible with this virus. A massive testing, tracing, and quarantining regime seems beyond the capacity of our federal government in the foreseeable future... [S]ometimes the only way past something is through it."
Writes Andrew Sullivan in
"We Can’t Go on Like This Much Longer" (New York Magazine).
ADDED: Damon Linker may "put it beautifully," but to write "Without the momentum and purpose, we flounder" is to be on the wrong side of
the flounder/founder distinction.
"Flounder" is a fish, and the verb means to struggle, and that takes some "momentum and purpose." To "founder" is to collapse, to fall helplessly to the ground... without momentum.
Posts
428 comments:
1 – 200 of 428 Newer› Newest»Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true.
So potentially Trump is telling the truth? Good to know.
We have reached a point where each should be free to find their own way forward in this plague, as long as the hospital system can continue to cope.
"Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true."
I wish Sullivan the best of luck in trying to reason people out of a position they didn't reason themselves into in the first place.
"Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true."
That's not a fly in the ointment, it's Jeff Goldblum.
I am Laslo.
Big Mike said...
So potentially Trump is telling the truth?
Potentially is fair here. We have no way of knowing the economic cost of doing nothing, but the cost would certainly not have been nothing.
Is Andrew Sullivan the voice of reason today?
Weird times.
Trump was right, but he was right in the wrong way so really he was still wrong article number.. it must be in the tens of millions by now.
Excitable Andy: the only choices are six months lockdown or Ollie Ollie Oxen Free.
Ride it like a cowboy? Bareback?
Weird times.
He used to be very sensible. Miss the old old Sullivan.
I agree. Social distancing was a way to spread out tens of millions (or even hundreds of millions) of cases over a two year period so that the health care system does not get overwhelmed. But the economic cost would be staggering. I just hope that herd immunity doesn't look like New York City.
I saw the title of the essay yesterday (or maybe Friday) in the RCP morning links, and didn't read it, but I more or less figured out what Sullivan was going to write. I had actually expected Althouse to comment on it.
I put a quote in these comment threads several weeks ago, but will repost it now because I have noticed in the last few days that a number of people who were publicly running around with their hair on fire a month ago are starting to regain some sense of rationality. Not a lot, but it is a start.
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
From Charles MacKay"s, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Universal constant testing, or a regime of control that this would be a part of, is futile.
You cannot run such a micromanaging system without it being about as bad as a lockdown.
""Without the momentum and purpose, we flounder"
Hopefully, we'll soon flubber.
I am Laslo.
Flounder was in Animal House. It really is a one eyed fish that always use its one eye to look up. Nothing to see on the bottom...very Trumpian.
I think the nautical meaning of founder, a shipwreck - to collapse, fail, sink, fits better.
Sullivan inserts the word potentially not to take a shot at Trump, though it is easy to see that intent, but because he is talking about the future when Trump's prediction would come true.
Or he's just taking a shot at Trump and all you rubes that agree with him.
We are fortunate that the mostly voluntary measures and, as yet, uncharacterized factors, did mitigate progress of the social contagion, Covid-19 disease, if not actually the Wuhan (formally known as SARS-CoV-2) virus.
“Trump is floundering and so the nation might founder.” Perfectly idiomatic use of both verbs.
Adolf Hitler's sequel: Mein Plattfisch
@Meade
I elided the AIDS material from the quote I used. He wrote: "But I learned something from the AIDS years: Sometimes it is a catastrophe. And sometimes the only way past something is through it."
I left that out in part so the quote wasn't too long, but also because there's a big distinction between AIDS and Covid19. Covid19 is MUCH more contagious, and to take all the steps needed to protect ourselves, we have to shut down to the point that is not feasible in the long run. It's an economic disaster, and also it requires too much personal isolation.
With AIDS, people needed to learn how to do safe sex. They could still go to work and socialize in the usual way, and AIDS was not transmissible. You needed more intimate exposure. The solution was safe sex! Unfortunately, Sullivan did catch the virus before finding the way to protect himself, but it is flat wrong scientifically to say that with AIDS "the only way past [it was] through it."
I guess he's trying to claim special authority, having lived with (and through) the history of AIDS. But that shows how a feeling of authority can fail you. Some things are alike and some things are different. Your familiarity with one thing may tempt you into overusing it as an analogy.
I had a saying back in the day: "Not enough flux to fluoro a flounder.". It meant your proposed system wouldn't have enough x-ray output to achieve an acceptable signal-to-noise ratio.
You cannot run such a micromanaging system without it being about as bad as a lockdown.
And it would needed to be done throughout the year to flatten the curve of other infectious diseases. That and 3 m distancing (based on latest guidance from military scientists in Wuhan), 6 m if you subscribe to the precautionary principle, in order to mitigate progress of diverse contagions.
"Without the momentum and purpose, we flounder" is to [flounder?] on the wrong side of the flounder/founder distinction.
"Dorfman, I've given this a lot of thought. From now on, your name is Flounder..."
"Flounder?"
Originally we were told the objective was to flatten the curve. The total number of people infected wasn’t meant to be less but the infections were to be spread out until resources like ventilators were more available. But now it seems the objective is to prevent infections altogether, at least in the minds of the long lockdown proponents. There’s been essentially no public discussion of this most fundamental issue.
A better definition of "founder" is to sink, as a ship.
Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true.”
The shutdown is much more costly than covid19. Power Line has a post - with a graph - showing that very fact. Each death was valued at $4.3m.
Look at the science!
Cancer treatments and all sorts of surgeries have been delayed.
I totally blame the Fake News after China.
"Umm, no. “Flounder” means to stagger or flop around in confusion. So “flounder” fits his meaning perfectly. "
1. Beginning a comment with "Umm" is insulting and will get you banned in some places. You're saying the person you're talking to is stupid. I should just delete you for that offense. It would be a mild response.
2. You are not just insulting, you are wrong. It takes energy to struggle, as I said, and Linker is talking about complete stagnation, loss of momentum. The word "founder" refers to total collapse, as in the sinking of a ship.
traditionalguy @ 11:28: "...Flounder was in Animal House." Yes. Greatest movie ever made.
But especially here: because the most important exchange in that movie was between Flounder and the Animal House guys after they took his beloved car: "You f**ked up! You trusted us!"
Same here: we are trusting these numbers when there is less and less reason to do so. The overcounting/misattribution problem is profound. There are strong incentives now baked into the system to tag every death as due to Wu Flu. That, plus the GIGO modeling, plus the panic-mongering by media and the intelligentsia among which Sullivan likes to include himself, have produced a gigantic overreaction.
IMHO.
HIV's primary transmission path was social activity through the rectum ("back hole"). Not exactly a communicable disease in the general population, whether sexually active or not. Of course, there were secondary pathways, but those were few and far between. Also, AIDS, as most STDs, was a disease of habit and caused by a notably socially liberal pathogen.
Owen nails it.
A present without a future is a life that feels less worth living...
How about a nation whose future consists solely of repenting for its past? How long can that last?
"Without the momentum and purpose, we flounder"
Not what the Founders had in mind
wild chicken said...
He used to be very sensible.
He was just as hysterical, only in a direction that involved killing Muslims and suppressing all opposition to war. He is a thoughtful guy and an excellent writer, but loses his shit too often to be taken seriously as a guide for living.
To repeat myself, we need to get on with life.
We should have stayed with the federal government guidance: Wash your hands or disinfect, stay home if you are sick, and cover up if you cough or sneeze, as supplemented by practicing social distancing as much as you can, and wearing a mask when engaging with others in an enclosed space.
The states went way beyond that, which is their right, but it is a huge mistake for them go on with this from here. Our hospitals have not been overwhelmed, it has become very clear that this disease mostly (but not exclusively) carries off the elderly and ill. We have done very little to create broad exposure to the virus among the young and healthy, who will handle it best and who are key to developing broad immunity in the population. And we have engaged in the wrong measures (closing schools, closing "nonessential" businesses) at huge randomized cost, mostly borne by those at the low end of the wage scale.
Well, I guess some people think that this is the right thing to do. I think it is stupid and destructive.
When the destitute mount an offensive against the nice elderly folk who still have, them perhaps the Boomers will see their folly.
words are forever mr Sullivan the data mining of fatalities, are fascinating for comparative sake
"If we keep this up for six months, we could well keep the deaths relatively low and stable, but the economy would all but disintegrate. Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true."
Dr. Sullivan here -- at your cervix.
No more Umms for you!
That most young men with AIDS had to work pretty hard to get it is one of those things not to be mentioned in polite company.
I've always thought there are two Andy's inside Sullivan: the cool smart rational Andy (who predicted Trump's win though he didn't like it one little bit), and the Andy of fevered brain.
Narr
Always glad to hear from the first one
When ARM finally lives up to his self-description and reveals a certain Concern Troll in all his NeverTrump glory.
Even a double hater is better than a single hater.
American data can be checked against international examples that dont have perverse incentives.
I wouldnt worry too much about that. When Germany exits lockdown the US will follow suit no matter how the count is running.
By the way, I love the picture. Where did you take that? I assume you weren't snorkeling in the Caribbean.
Birkel @ 11:43: "When the destitute mount an offensive against the nice elderly folk..." Yes. If you were a 20- or 30- or 40-something already struggling to build a family or a career or a business, and some old guys on a podium issue an order that you must take all that and burn it down because a statistical model says so, and because we need to preserve the last few days or weeks of expected life for people hanging on at a senior care facility? If you are that person, you are eventually going to tire of being sacrificed for a hypothetical advantage to be enjoyed by somebody who has already run the course.
You might even decide to do something about it.
THAT's what keeps me up at nights.
@Meade, no. "Ride it like a cowboy" means riding on a saddle that cost more than the horse. Didn't you ever watch a Randolph Scott movie?
In light of various commentatorial outrages Sullivan has committed, I don't think he deserves any attention, but what the hell:
"So we have created a scenario which has mercifully slowed the virus’s spread"
Assumes facts not in evidence. Whether general shutdowns helped to slow the spread, beyond what common-sense adjustments like informal social distancing and closing nursing homes accomplished, remains to be shown. Comparative analysis across states and countries suggests that the marginal utility was probably very small, and the cost of course very large. Hence, the most insane form of public policy ever executed in the U.S. (and many other places).
"... of a potentially greater depression than in the 1930s, with no assurance of any progress yet visible"
Well, yeah, the economic data are blatantly obvious to all but the most bad-faith alarmists. But what more "progress" can we make? Hospitals are not overwhelmed, deaths are orders of magnitude lower than "projected," actual infection rates are orders of magnitude higher than initial testing suggested, complications are concentrated among the old and sick, and so on. By alarmist standards of doom, all this is progress.
"Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true. The previously unimaginable levels of unemployment and the massive debt-fueled outlays to lessen the blow simply cannot continue indefinitely. We have already, in just two months, wiped out all the job gains since the Great Recession. In six months? The wreckage boggles the mind.'
Check out pandemiccosts.com.
"We keep postponing herd immunity, if such a thing is even possible with this virus."
Of course, the cost of the postponement, i.e., the obvious negative consequences of "the scenario," need to be part of The Reckoning. Since the Wuhan virus is a new coronavirus, part of a known family, the burden of proof was and is on the alarmists to show why herd immunity should work differently here than with any other virus.
Anyway, taking Sullivan as indicator rather than argument, this suggests the alarmist case is becoming ever less respectable even on the left.
I liked sully way back before 9/11.
true, but what is the cost, of this flatline for short and long term prospects,
where is sasha monck, social distancing champion any thoughts,
but to write "Without the momentum and purpose, we flounder" is to be on the wrong side of the flounder/founder distinction.
Without the momentum and purpose, we [struggle to move or obtain footing; thrash about wildly; proceed or act clumsily or ineffectually].
Without the momentum and purpose, we [become disabled, go lame; collapse; sink; become submerged]
The first one is much more appropriate.
From the American Heritage Dictionary:
Usage Note: The verbs founder and flounder are often confused. Founder comes from a Latin word meaning "bottom" (as in foundation) and originally referred to knocking enemies down; it is now also used to mean "to fail utterly, collapse." Flounder means "to move clumsily, thrash about," and hence "to proceed in confusion." If John is foundering in Chemistry 101, he had better drop the course; if he is floundering, he may yet pull through.
Flounder is not just a fish, it’s a verb. The verb fits Linker's use of it. Your dismissal of his writing does not indicate you knew flounder was a verb.
You threaten deletion over ”umm” but several comments wished death on Inga, and they drew no protest.
Yes, it has come at a great cost. I’m a solo practice family physician. The lockdown has reduced my revenues by 80%. And that is with telemedicine substituting for in person visits when possible. People are avoiding doctor’s offices. I laid off my staff and am running things on my own. I spent this morning mopping my office floors because I can’t afford the cleaning service. I got a paycheck protection loan, but after attending a Webinar about maximizing forgiveness, I’m afraid to use the money because the government keeps changing the terms and definitions to meet for forgiveness. If it isn’t forgiven, the bank will want $1700 a month in seven months. If this social distancing is going to continue to be the new normal,even after opening the economy, I will go bankrupt. A medical practice can’t survive without seeing patients. If I space them out to keep no one from meeting anyone else, it will still not be enough volume to stay afloat. Tomorrow, I will find out what rules our state is going to require for businesses to operate safely. The governor and health department director have hinted that sanitizer and face masks will be required for a long time. Both are nearly impossible to purchase these days. And we all know that businesses are held to a higher standard than the general public, so bandanas and soap and water aren’t going to cut it.
I love the “now discovering.” If only it had been foreseeable ...
Having seen the explicit, but not very inventive, personal insults exchanged in the comments here ("racist fopdoodle extraordinaire"?), I would not expect beginning one with "Umm" to be a hanging offense. Boy is that strict ("Chewing gum on line? I hope you brought enough for everyone.")
Look, Bullwinkle, a message in a bottle!
(someone had to do it)
Fernandistein at 12:53 makes the same point I did, but rather better than I did.
We have no way of knowing the economic cost of doing nothing, but the cost would certainly not have been nothing.
As is all too usual, ARM, you get close to being right and then go way off the rails. Your second clause is correct as far as it goes, but the first clause is simply wrong. We already have enough information make a good stochastic model, and the data is only going to get better.
"We have already, in just two months, wiped out all the job gains since the Great Recession. In six months? The wreckage boggles the mind."
Just days ago Ken B was helpfully explaining how the destruction of the most vibrant economy in the history of the World was actually an example of how our lock down depression avoided economic collapse.
With AIDS, people needed to learn how to do safe sex. They could still go to work and socialize in the usual way, and AIDS was not transmissible.
But we didn't always know that. There was a time the "gay man's cancer" was thought to be much more contagious. Remember Diana got famous for daring to hug an AIDS patient. People didn't want HIV kids in school with their kids. People thought any body fluid might spread it, and tears or sweat or snot or sharing a toothbrush or a water fountain might spread it. I remember people who thought people with AIDS should be quarantined.
Eventually, we learned it was much more about sex and safe sex. Or we accepted that. We'll see what we eventually learn about COVID.
Rob said: But now it seems the objective is to prevent infections altogether, at least in the minds of the long lockdown proponents. There’s been essentially no public discussion of this most fundamental issue.}}}
THANK YOU ROB! I feel like, in addition to the apocalypse, I am living in Crazy Town. Why is this fact not the starting point of every discussion we need to be having now?
At this point it’s probably safer for people to just go forward and live their lives as they see fit rather than congregating in large groups yelling in each other’s faces at protests. If there is a spike in cases that is so large that it would overwhelm our healthcare system, we will clearly see that social distancing was the correct mitigation policy and may have to go back to it in densely populated areas.
My family and I are still going to be cognizant that Covid is real, it’s killed real people in awful ways and weigh the risks of getting together. I’m hopeful that like when polio was around, there will be a vaccine and as time goes by healthcare professionals have discovered better ways to treat Covid, but it’s still going to kill people, some younger, more older. Covid won’t just disappear because some people deny it’s real or deny its more virulent that the seasonal flu.
Lucien 11:55
The real offense is lèse-majesté.
The difference, Ken, is that this isn't Inga's blog.
Yancey
So you agree with my 12:00 comment then.
On March 8 I read a Twitter thread by a biologist who said based on cases doubling every six days the US would be at one million cases by May.
It looks like we will meet or exceed that prediction. And that's with distancing.
Outside of some hotspots like Seattle, NYC, and NOLA, our hospitals weren't overwhelmed. More like underwhelmed in Montana.
Continuing the lockdown is just a power trip, man. By whom?
"I just hope that herd immunity doesn't look like New York City."
In most places, it looks like California.
Inga: "At this point it’s probably safer for people to just go forward and live their lives as they see fit rather than congregating in large groups yelling in each other’s faces at protests."
Inga has yet to criticize NYC for keeping open the subways and Central Park and shoving infected elderly back into nursing homes.
This weekend tens of thousands of Californians flocked to the beaches.
Number of Inga complaints? Zero.
What an interesting dichotomy.
Economic devastation.
IT'S a PAUL KRUGMAN MIRACLE!
I’m a solo practice family physician. The lockdown has reduced my revenues by 80%.
Doctors going out of business because a lot of people are sick sure sounds like one of those "unintended consequences". Plus ironic.
Good luck, and maybe learn to code.
Althouse: "there's a big distinction between AIDS and Covid19. Covid19 is MUCH more contagious, and to take all the steps needed to protect ourselves, we have to shut down to the point that is not feasible in the long run. It's an economic disaster, and also it requires too much personal isolation."
True, it would be an economic disaster, considering it already is. But as commentators have already covered in previous threads days ago, there are also similarities between AIDS and WuFlu. Example: "protect ourselves." Indicative of the kind of rhetorical moves made in both cases to suggest that a virus poses general risks, and therefore, we must protect "ourselves." No. Both target specific groups of people. Gays had to protect themselves, which they were and again are reluctant to do; AIDS was irrelevant to the rest. Od and sick people have to protect themselves (and have to be helped); WuFlu is harmless to most healthy people.
"With AIDS, people needed to learn how to do safe sex."
There's that word again, "people.""
"it is flat wrong scientifically to say that with AIDS "the only way past [it was] through it." "
Very true.
"Some things are alike and some things are different. Your familiarity with one thing may tempt you into overusing it as an analogy."
Then again, many people do not see the actual analogies clearly (not a criticism of Althouse, who is pretty clear here)--already covered in previous threads: the alarmist projections of doom (Dr. Fauci, anyone?), the general alarmism, the abuse of false expertise, the political distortions to obscure actual risks for prog purposes, and the overreaction in public policy.
N.N. @ 11:40
That is the difference. and it's a really big difference.
No, Ken, I don't. Your term is pejorative. I wouldn't toss you out of my house if you pissed on Inga's sofa, but I would toss you out if you pissed on mine.
I have taken to writing "founder/flounder," knowing that what I want to say is "founder" but that most people will expect and read "flounder." According to Google engrams, "founder" is far more commonly used than "flounder," but still, it sounds highfalutin and pretentious to my ear (even though it's the word I want to use).
I need better news. It's to the point where I want to just make a break for it; run out there and get this WuFlu and die or not die, whatever.
Big Mike said...
We already have enough information make a good stochastic model, and the data is only going to get better.
This is simply wrong. Even now there is no convincing prediction for what the total number of deaths will be. It seems fairly certain that it will exceed the 60,000 best case scenario, but by how much? Cases and deaths have reached a constant level but the virus could rattle around the country for months, or it could die out quickly. No one knows.
@Meade, no. "Ride it like a cowboy" means riding on a saddle that cost more than the horse."
here
so how do we prevent infection and treat it, most strategies, rendesvir, hcq, seem to be dismissed off the block, a vaccine is iffy, in the short to mid term. I fear we tupolev'd ourselves, this time around, will we suffer the fate of the konevalov?
BleachBit-and-Hammers: "Economic devastation."
On the contrary, despite the clear evidence of widespread devastation, Ken B was quite adament we had avoided it.
In fact, even mentioning economic impacts qualified one as a racist. Ken B can explain the "logical" connection.
"Doctors going out of business because a lot of people are sick sure sounds like one of those "unintended consequences"."
"Marginal business." We had to destroy healthcare to save it.
Adolf Hitler's sequel: Mein Plattfisch
I thought Gunter Grass wrote that.
Oh wait, his was Mein Butt, which is funnier.
ARM: "It seems fairly certain that it will exceed the 60,000 best case scenario,..."
LOL
Sorry ARM, Dr Birx made it perfectly clear the latest model "best case" was 100,000.
ARM's post explains why the dems and Ch-anucks are pulling out all the stops in labeling every death a ChiCom Wuhan Lab Bat Flu death.
The Great Depression was the golden age of the Democratic Party.
What evidence is there the Dems want growth and prosperity?
Why does everyone assume that shutting down the economy succeeded in "flattening the curve" of infections? Is this not an example of the post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy?
Everything Sullivan says was apparent before the lockdowns began. The only thing that has changed is reason for them. First it was to slow the spread of the stop hospitals from being overrun. Well, that has happened. We've had noting but good news, really. The virus is less deadly and is less communicable than the epidemiologists said that it was.
Now the excuse for the lockdowns is to defeat the disease, an unrealistic goal.
The current lockdown regime is outrageous. It is not supported by reason.
we prevent infection and treat it, most strategies, rendesvir, hcq
We cannot prevent infection, other than through full body condom, or physical isolation, but rely on naturally immunity, acquired immunity, or disinfect to mitigate its progress. A viable vaccine is not forthcoming. In the best case, that's what the lab in Wuhan was working on, before the situation evolved as a veritable Raccoon City.
New insights on the antiviral effects of chloroquine against coronavirus: what to expect for COVID-19?
The multiple molecular mechanisms by which chloroquine can achieve such results remain to be further explored. ... preliminary data indicate that chloroquine interferes with SARS-CoV-2 attempts to acidify the lysosomes and presumably inhibits cathepsins, which require a low pH for optimal cleavage of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein
Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture
Blogger Inga said...
My family and I are still going to be cognizant that Covid is real
This is basically my approach. For the moment, I can keep pretty tight control of my risk and will continue to do so. Unfortunately, at some point I am going to have to go to the dentist.
Founder is the traditional name for a condition in horses technically known as laminitis. It's a severe inflammation of the living interior tissue of the hoof caused by mycotoxins sometimes present in hay, grain, and fresh grass. Laminitis is a crisis in that if left unchecked the smelling of the inflamed laminae can restrict circulation sufficient to cause necrosis. Once that happens there's little to be done but euthanasia.
Will J. Richardson: "Why does everyone assume that shutting down the economy succeeded in "flattening the curve" of infections? Is this not an example of the post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy?"
It is.
Sweden and Brazil, amongst others like the Philipines, are demonstrating that the lock down measures will have orders of magnitude worse impacts on the global population than the virus, as the UN study on children also asserts.
After a certain point, do you really know if you are foundering or floundering? You may be sitting at your computer for hours looking for things to comment on, unable to rouse yourself to do much else. Have you just collapsed and sunk into inaction? Or does your, "Gee, I really have to get up and do something" count as a struggle against passivity, even though you don't get up and do anything?
Just read this at PJ Media...
During a Friday briefing, the Infectious Diseases Society of America warned that not enough is known about antibody testing to assume immunity.
Dr. Mary Hayden, spokesperson for IDSA and chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at Rush University Medical Center, said, "We do not know whether or not patients who have these antibodies are still at risk of reinfection with Covid-19. At this point, I think we have to assume that they could be at risk of reinfection."
@Owen,
"....because the most important exchange in that movie was between Flounder and the Animal House guys after they took his beloved car: "You f**ked up! You trusted us!"
You're my new best friend!
A life without forward momentum is to a considerable extent a life without purpose”
For many, the purpose or momentum of life remains entirely unchanged by a virus, temporary separation, or a change in the economy. For the others, it is a chance to find value and meaning in things that don’t so easily change. Our lives can be much more and more satisfying than merely plugging into a consumer capitalist economy.
AIDS:
My gay BIL is 65 years old. He does not have AIDS. Once upon a time his sisters (who have since evolved into *** ***s) did not allow him in their homes because The Germz. He now has sex, who knows how safely, with 20 somethings because they are hot, they like his money, and there aren't many gay men his age around.
People are dumb panicky animals. What does it take to stay safe? What does it mean to be safe? How safe are we if we drive all the doctors and hospitals out of business? How safe are we if we cripple the education and development of our young people who, one imagines, would be doctors and run hospitals in the future? How safe are we if as a society we cannot make rational, adult decisions about risk? How safe are we if people are not only willing but eager to chop off their arms over the idea that they might get a paper cut? What does that say about our ability to navigate the future and whatever threats are around the bend?
We're monkeys with our fist in the pickle jar.
With the clear numbers, both infection/death and economic, across the globe coming into focus, I expect we will see more alarmists like Inga reverting to earlier pathetic lies about how some dont believe the virus is real. As Inga has already done in this very thread.
The virus is less deadly and is less communicable than the epidemiologists said that it was.
Less deadly? It seems to be. Less communicable? That remains to be tested, observed. We don't know, for instance, if there are sanctuary bodies that, while they don't exhibit symptoms, are capable of effectively transmitting the virus. Prudent and bold is the old "new" mode of life.
a consumer capitalist economy.
A consumer economy. A capitalist (i.e. retained earnings) market (i.e. democratic) economy is part and parcel of life and community, respectively.
Sebastion @ 12:05: "Then again, many people do not see the actual analogies clearly (not a criticism of Althouse, who is pretty clear here)--already covered in previous threads: the alarmist projections of doom (Dr. Fauci, anyone?), the general alarmism, the abuse of false expertise, the political distortions to obscure actual risks for prog purposes, and the overreaction in public policy."
Thank you.
I had posted on this several days ago, on many of the issues you address here.
And I had pointed out how Dr. Fauci was involved in the over-projection issue with AIDs at that time, too.
I didn't feel like having to re-cap it again, then saw your post. So, again: thanks.
I am Laslo.
I have deleted my post above, with the disdainful monosyllable.
I will amend it to:
No. “Flounder” means to stagger or flop around in confusion. So “flounder” fits his meaning perfectly.
Meade said...
Ride it like a cowboy? Bareback?
4/26/20, 11:19 AM
Whip of the week from Meade.
Andrew Sullivan had some appeal, back when some Americans still trusted that the media in general, and neocons in particular, had some critical mass of qualified and benevolent leadership. That mask is off, and Sullivan's inability to say something besides paeans to the same failures that got us here, or the blindingly obvious a month late, is wearing thin. Anyone who thinks this thing can be extended to June or July in Michigan without people being killed is smoking some serious rock- particularly as most of the country is forced to open up just from public pressure. My worry is that it's already too late- that there are people who weren't working in March and April, that will nonetheless be expected to pay back the banks with money they can't have. How much do the elites really think Americans will take before a reckoning comes?
But it is no coincidence that the coddled class of HIV-positive catamites, secure in their pay and not having to work, are the most virulently hateful against the President and his comprehensive attempts to save the country from a disaster focused in New York and fueled by their corrupt Third World policies- even as the corporate New York media excoriates the productive parts of the nation in a frantic attempt to shift blame away from them and their Chinese masters. We live in an era where the people who are useful- retailers, warehouse staff, truckers, factory men, farmers, and soldiers- have never been more needed. The useless- celebrities, journalists, most politicians, and financiers of all types- have never been more worthless, and it's for that exposure that they will never forgive us. And if health care workers really are overworked and understaffed- why do hospitals keep laying them off, hmmm? It's almost like the grossly negligent bureaucrats in charge of our health policy have no idea what they're doing!
Bay Area Guy @ 12:20
*blushes*
After this is all over, we have to meet for a beer.
Cheers.
So, Andrew finally figures out something Trump publicly spoke on WEEKS ago.
We are dominated by an elite that confuses education and proficiency with language with actual intelligence.
Mike
“ a consumer capitalist economy” or “ A consumer economy. A capitalist (i.e. retained earnings) market (i.e. democratic) economy is part and parcel of life and community, respectively.”
It is an efficient means of creation and distribution of goods and services. It isn’t necessarily a good purpose and meaning for one’s existence.
Nothin' from nuthin', but that's the gayest looking flounder I've ever seen, and I've fished a great many waters.
what is mandarin for chutzpah
Check out "A REPORT FROM THE FRONT LINES" at Power Line.
Two docs stating the obvious
Critical health issues not addressed due to fear. The cost of alarmism.
Quarantining refers to isolating the sick; what we have done does not "mesh" with anything we know. The cost of alarmism.
Widespread infection "similar to flu." Alarmism dead wrong.
Deaths not "materializing."
Etc. etc.
Until we know the denominator, we don’t know anything useful in determining our optimal, balanced course of action.
And we still don’t know then denominator covering a wide sector of the country. But we know it better.
founder / flounder
quash / squash
I like the media meme:
*Trump is plunging us in massive debt.
*Biden and Pelosi want even bigger bailouts! They care!
I wish Ann would put up a poll about the shutdown. Lots of polls in fact.
Owen, Laslo and many others above make great points.
My point is that this is the worst public policy application in US history. And I blame the Fake News and the Deep State. The models were wildly wrong!
narciso said...
what is mandarin for chutzpah
4/26/20, 12:28 PM
Out goddamn standing. Biden's stupid meandering about Trump being too friendly with China (LOOOOOOOL) can be dismissed, but when Pelosi starts sneering that Trump's ban was insufficient? That's Democrat policy now, the left owns it. They're trying to out-Trump Trump, which is INSANE and guarantees him a second term in office. He could exclusively run prime-time commercials declaring "I'm Donald Trump, and the cure for coronavirus is pumping Lysol directly into your veins!" Because when your only competition is a pale, senile imitation, you're going to win. Matter of time.
Laslo @ 12:23: You cite Sebastian for (inter alia) "...the abuse of expertise" and mention Fauci.
I did not follow his earlier career but maybe I should. For now, though, I have to agree emphatically with your point, which I take to mean there is a terrible tendency of "experts" (narrow specialists, deeply schooled in some subject and equally ferocious in their defense of their reputation for knowing it better than anyone else), a terrible tendency of such people to tell the rest of us to do what they say Because I Said So. On matters outside their purported expertise. Because they're used to that deference, or hungry for it, and nobody in the audience is in a mood, or a professional position, to gainsay their claim.
So these situations produce an overshoot. Where a Fauci is assigned quasi-magical powers, and the next thing we know, the country has become one big dumpster fire.
I admire Fauci. I think he's done a lot of good work. He's very smart and he does great TV. Probably too great TV.
But he's not a god, and his whole orientation is to fighting this disease. Which for him (and Birx, and the others) is (necessarily) about getting the numbers to fit a curve, a declining curve, that stands for "success." Numbers which are heavily tweaked, delayed, partial, never able to represent the billions of trade-offs being made every day in our society.
There's a great expression for over-controlling a situation: "driving by the hood ornament." The faster you go, the more you need to look beyond the hood ornament, toward the horizon, the big picture. Fauci is running this thing at Mach 3 while looking at the hood ornament of next week's body count.
Not liking this. IMHO.
For many, the purpose or momentum of life remains entirely unchanged by a virus, temporary separation, or a change in the economy. For the others, it is a chance to find value and meaning in things that don’t so easily change. Our lives can be much more and more satisfying than merely plugging into a consumer capitalist economy.
Kindly explain to me how I can raise and educate my children to become productive, servant-minded, connected and healthy adults, which is the purpose of my life, while confined to our house.
"Sydney said...
Yes, it has come at a great cost. I’m a solo practice family physician."
This is the reality we need to hear about more often. Most of the people making decisions, and those writing about the people making decisions, are still receiving their normal income. Me too.
There needs to be a sense of urgency for people like Sydney.
What's the over-under on which comes first: Covid-19 deaths dry up (See Farr's Law) or Sully finally finds Sarah Palin's uterus?
The boys at IMHE says this thing dries up by June 1.
Question for some of the usual suspects -- Has anyone been expressing really alarmist opinions about Covid-19 without having any knowledge whatsoever about Farr's Law?
My consulting practice felt the cascading impact of shutdown orders at the beginning of March. We were scheduled for the onsite work the last 2 weeks of March and most of April with clients. But, that all was cancelled/postponed until after the pandemic. I’m able to do a bit of our work online, so we’re only down 90% in revenue. It’s mean all the contracted consultants I’ve had with us since 2016 have had their work stopped.
We’re not eligible for unemployment - I did try and it was denied even through I paid into it. I won’t get a stimulus check due to 2018 earnings. There’s a slight chance I’ll get the PPP. I didn’t get it last round and I’m afraid the money will get gone in 48 hours this round.
So, for the moment, we’re living off savings. I asked my bank to do a forbearance on our mortgage very early when I saw the tsunami coming. But, they’re so overwhelmed they can’t process the request.
If we get back to work, even in a reduced capacity in May, I might make it through it. But that’s only if our clients also recover. If this goes into July, we’ll get be pulling out retirement savings at massive penalties. I have no idea what happens if we go longer.
We’re lucky in a sense. We’re not sick and we have food. But, our capacity to earn a living has been shut down by the government - the same government who promised to help if we shut down.
We should be tracking two sets of fatality numbers. One set from COVID 19 cases and one set from suicides. The longer this lasts, the higher the probably we have more suicides than COVID 19 deaths. The suicide rate among small business owners will be astronomical.
Drago said...
ARM: "It seems fairly certain that it will exceed the 60,000 best case scenario,..."
LOL
Sorry ARM, Dr Birx made it perfectly clear the latest model "best case" was 100,000.
ARM's post explains why the dems and Ch-anucks are pulling out all the stops in labeling every death a ChiCom Wuhan Lab Bat Flu death.
4/26/20, 12:11 PM
In California, we goin' back and looking at dead people from December and January to cook the books. Newsome says it is necessary.
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
Kindly explain to me how I can raise and educate my children to become productive, servant-minded, connected and healthy adults, which is the purpose of my life, while confined to our house.
4/26/20, 12:34 PM
Children are rarely productive at the adult standard. But they aren't being actively infected with public school nonsense, so having them at home with you puts you well ahead of the curve.
Now, if you're asking for serious advice on how to raise your children at your house, when you've never had greater opportunity to personally manage them- oh dear. Maybe government schooling is a comparative step up for them.
"Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true." I see lots of people commented on this line, but - well, it's kind of mind-boggling. A substantial fraction of this country are trying to think with one brain tied behind their backs. Let me force myself to consider the possibility that Trump isn't wrong.
It is necessary if you want to understand what happened. Entirely unnecessary if you do not want your assumptions challenged.
founder / flounder
quash / squash
flout/flaunt
ARM: "It is necessary if you want to understand what happened. Entirely unnecessary if you do not want your assumptions challenged."
Yes, a russian collusion truther and ChiCom propagandist wrote that.
Just now.
Without irony.
Tom @ 12:36: Prayers up for you. Your story makes me even more sick with disgust at what a boneheaded mess our "leaders" are making of this. Yes, it was an epidemiological Pearl Harbor, but it seems that we then decided to pour gasoline on the flames.
The virus wants to replicate at an exponential rate. The mind-virus of panic about the actual virus has the same behavior. It's gone fully exponential and burned up all the substrate. There's nothing left. So can we now try to rebuild? Starting yesterday?
Because nature abhors a vacuum: and the longer we leave things in this ruinous state, the more powerful the backlash will become. Exponentially so.
doctrev, it's not just public school. The loss of that bothers me the least. It's participating in society at large. Church, sports, friends, the arts, the playground, extended family. Museums, camping trips, vacations, The Nutcracker, college marching band, theater camp at the community playhouse. Unless you think that sitting at home with nothing but parents and siblings is ideal childrearing. And trust me, we've considered it, buying a hundred acres and telling all these fools to go to hell, but we're not weird cultists who plan to marry our children to each other, so sadly that won't work.
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
we've considered it, buying a hundred acres and telling all these fools to go to hell, but we're not weird cultists who plan to marry our siblings to each other, so sadly that won't work.
I'm not sure you should be stereotyping DBQ like this.
Just because Trump has argued that the cure could be worse than the disease doesn’t mean it isn’t potentially true.
https://babylonbee.com/news/cnn-moves-headquarters-underground-after-trump-says-the-sun-is-good
Fullmoon: "In California, we goin' back and looking at dead people from December and January to cook the books. Newsome says it is necessary."
And this is a double-edged sword for the alarmists/dems.
By going back further to capture additional deaths to bump up the numbers, they necessarily have to concede the virus was here much earlier than originally thought which means even greater exposure amongst the population (which the studies are now showing) and, worst of all for ARM, it means the ChiComs and their WHO marxist pet Tedros have been lying for even longer than we thought.
From Charles MacKay"s, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
That book should be required reading in high school.
Is Andrew establishing a new goal of the shutdown: a low and stable rate of covid attributed deaths?
“ Kindly explain to me how I can raise and educate my children to become productive, servant-minded, connected and healthy adults, which is the purpose of my life, while confined to our house.”
I can only speak to our observations and experience. Easier together than always going and coming and apart. Easier in our internetted age than at any other time in history. All true service is learned at home by serving family members. That’s the best answer I can come up with.
Sabbaticals have usually been thought to be a good - a restorative, and rejuvenating period that can foster productive change and creativity. That’s what we’re all experiencing. A sabbatical. This isolation period will pass.
I was responding to, I think, Quayle's implication that the only thing we're missing out on here is consumer culture. Oddly that's about all we have available to us, other than whatever we can read or have streamed to us while we are under house arrest. We're allowed to shop online and go to Walmart if we submit to their Silkwood shower behavior expectation. Woooo!
Last night our best friends, who live within walking distance, came over for a small gathering for one of my daughters whose birthday is soon. We swam in the pool, we grilled burgers, we built a fire in the chiminea and roasted marshmallows and talked in the backyard. Quietly, because we didn't want any of our Karen neighbors to call the police on us, because we are violating the county stay at home order.
I'm sorry if I don't see a lovely opportunity for childhood in that we have to literally break the law to spend time with anyone other than the Walmart checker or our immediate household.
Ken B said...
You threaten deletion over ”umm” but several comments wished death on Inga, and they drew no protest.
I agree this is offensive, although Inga seems to be able to cope. We do seem to have seen off the most recent invasion of abusive right wing trolls, although just barely. There are now very few non-Trump cultists left. But this will also change in a years time, when all the back sliding starts.
If this goes into July, we’ll get be pulling out retirement savings at massive penalties.
Tom, there are options for withdrawing without penalty- things like substantially equal payment plans that can be done prior to 59 1/2 years of age. And if you have a Roth IRA/401K of any kind, you can take the money out anyway you wish as long as you don't take out the earnings themselves (then you owe tax).
It was a joke. Not a very good one, apparently.
Usually sabbaticals are voluntary.
Not to stray too far from the topic at hand, but we are in the last inning of this epidemic.
Don't believe me?
The IMHE (funded by that dastardly Bill Gates) notes that we have 53,000 US deaths, and predicts 67,000 US total by June 1 2020 , and then flatlining (no pun intended) thereafter to August 2020, when it's over.
What is my stray, you ask?
The betting odds, today, still show Trump favored over Slow Joe 50 -44.
And that is why the mirth overflows in the cup of life....
Carry on, Comrades
It seems the worm has turned. Even yesterday the cool kids were still saying that this was only a flesh wound to the economy and we would recover in no time. Only a denialist would want to allow people to go back to work, get an essential job if you want to support yourself, dummy.
I think this will be a long L recovery or more accurately a W, they all are. Being isolated at home I think of Chief Seattle’s supposed quote, to paraphrase, it will be the end of living, and the beginning of survival.
I suspect in the weeks to come those who have been pushing ChiCom propaganda the hardest will be fully exposed and will either retreat from Althouse blog entirely or become much more cautious in their propagandizing.
Similar to how they continue to subtly push their russia collusion theories.
This entire affair looks to me to be a deliberate act of war committed by the CCP, abetted by Obama and the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party is allied with the CCP and is engaged in war of economic sabotage.
"I'm sorry if I don't see a lovely opportunity for childhood in that we have to literally break the law to spend time with anyone other than the Walmart checker or our immediate household."
They are unknowingly creating a nation of UnKarens.
BAG: "What is my stray, you ask?
The betting odds, today, still show Trump favored over Slow Joe 50 -44.
And that is why the mirth overflows in the cup of life..."
Remember, the dems/ChiCom-allies have already constructed the House committee apparatus for Sham-peachment III and fully intend to continue pushing literal murder charges against Trump and transferring ChiCom/WHO guilt onto Trump throughout the summer and fall, so we will see how that impacts the numbers.
sullivan's gotten lazy, he's now using quotes for 1/2 his worthless column.
Give everyone a face-mask and lets get back to work. You can keep NYC and SF close, the rest of us will do just fine.
the snotty arrogance from Inga and ARM that if we don't adhere to their specific prescriptions we are somehow "deniers" = sod off, swampy.
o flounder is to struggle, but to founder is to sink like a stone and fail. Both are fun as nouns, not so fun as verbs. ... But it all falls apart when they're verbs — if you're floundering, you're struggling. If you're foundering, you're failing completely.
Inga and ARM - what would Althouse be without them?
I could spend hours and hours talking about ARM, Chuck, Inga, and the other guy, but I have better things to do. Wife and I are going walking. Adios.
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
doctrev, it's not just public school. The loss of that bothers me the least. It's participating in society at large. Church, sports, friends, the arts, the playground, extended family. Museums, camping trips, vacations, The Nutcracker, college marching band, theater camp at the community playhouse. Unless you think that sitting at home with nothing but parents and siblings is ideal childrearing. And trust me, we've considered it, buying a hundred acres and telling all these fools to go to hell, but we're not weird cultists who plan to marry our children to each other, so sadly that won't work.
4/26/20, 12:45 PM
Okay, so you actually do want serious advice. A return to normalcy. Before we go on, I'm just going to point out that the weird cultists and paranoid survivalists are definitely doing much better in this crisis than Andrew Sullivan, and probably better than most people you know. They're mentally prepared to deal with adversity, defying the law, and even complete isolation. So you can mock them, if you like, but they would be amused at best.
Now, on to help! The fact is, you have advantages that people going into seclusion from the Black Death did not. Television, radio, books, and especially the Internet. Your children can stay connected with their friends, and maybe you can find other parents who are increasingly hostile to the notion of staying completely isolated from the world. You can not only look up all the places that your children want to go, but you can frequently download a king's wealth of pictures that might be a virtual tour of these places. Great way to preview the world, and decide where you would like to vacation in the far future.
If camping is illegal at designated campgrounds, then feel free to camp wherever you like. The government's eyes can't be everywhere, and they've broken the social contract that ordinarily discourages you from pitching a tent wherever you like.
It's nice to have the community at church, but now you can watch Masses online. Or even just read the Bible to your children and talk about it. If they're old enough you can reward them with the weird bits, and point out that parts of the Bible are more messed up than a GRRM novel. It was edgy before edgy was cool. But you don't have to feel bound by what your church is talking about this week. Focus on what they like. Focus on what you think is important. Reward the children with toys ordered online, if you want. Or don't- most children are very happy to spend more time with their parents, particularly their fathers. It would be nice to spend time with their friends, but cheerfully inform them that the government is threatening to jail people who set foot outside without reason. Nothing helps bonding like having an external enemy!
You might think this advice is only so helpful, but I'm not being paid enough to come up with a comprehensive plan. Personally, I've never had such a great relationship with my immediate family, and my preparations with dry food are being completely vindicated. There's some joy in that for me. I'm particularly looking forward to receiving my copies of the Junior Classics. That will provide education and entertainment for the foreseeable future. It's hard for all the pressure to be on the parents and none on the government/ teachers, and perhaps I'd be singing a different tune if I had much older children. But the pressure is on, and it's time to shine.
the smelling of the inflamed laminae can restrict circulation sufficient to cause necrosis. Once that happens there's little to be done but euthanasia.
Now that there is funny, I don't care who you are.
@Meade, that warn’t no Randolph Scott.
Lurker21: "According to Google engrams, 'founder' is far more commonly used than 'flounder' . . ."
Is it possible with engrams to distinguish founder (the verb we are discussing) from founder (the noun as in "Bill Gates is the founder of . . .")?
None of that is bad advice, and most of it is what we are already doing. I suppose I should have been more straightforward in my word choice and rather than giving the impression that I literally need to be told what to do ( as though I have not been a parent for 18 years and six children and just fell off the turnip truck yesterday ) I should have said that I want, need and deserve my freedom, and so do my children.
"If Trump says the sun is good, we're locking ourselves deep underground," said Brian Stelter, wiping tears from his eyes while saying goodbye to the world on the surface. "We urge all Americans to do the same. Sun bad! Sun bad!"
My friend, a practicing specialist MD, flat out told me that we'd see far more suicides than virus deaths. Everything he's predicted and recommended has come true so far and been borne out by stats and studies. The price will likely high. All in the name of clickbait.
The opposition press in China says the virus was deliberately created with the insertion of particularly harmful genes from the HIV retrovirus into coronavirus.
The virus was deliberately created and deliberately released to foment this panic.
With the deliberate assistance of the Democratic Party.
If you're driving doctors out of business, that might be a good clue that your policies need some serious rejiggering pronto.
The Obama administration at least partially funded the Wuhan lab.
So we have created a scenario which has mercifully slowed the virus’s spread
A conclusion reached without evidence. We don't know how widely spread the virus is. There is evidence that the virus was more widely distributed than was assumed based on initial testimony. We cannot even reliably remark on the disease, symptoms, and deaths, which have been confounded through conflation of causes, cross-contamination, and a dearth of effective testing. We can, however, entertain certain stochastic inferences based on spatial and temporal distributions, and excess deaths in those geographically isolated populations.
"You fucked up--you trusted us" could be the motto of the "liberal" Hive or any other gang of statists.
"The real offense is lèse-majesté."
Yes, Ken, you finally ran into somebody you couldn't insult.
Not to worry; you've still got the rest of us.
Drago @12:46
My wife will be undergoing antibody testing on Tuesday.
She and at least three other people we know had severe COVID-19 symptoms in mid February. Her MD believes it was COVID-19 that passed through CA and AZ after the New Year.
While going back and changing COVID deaths at that period inflates the number of deaths, It also greatly decreases the death rate. In the end, the coronavirus from Wuhan will be a severe flu and not a cataclysmic catastrophe.
Don't tell little Kenny B. He still doesn't understand what the word "rate" means and he seems to enjoy his hysteria.
What? We forgot how to spell China? They did this too is, very deliberately.
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
I should have said that I want, need and deserve my freedom, and so do my children.
4/26/20, 1:19 PM
Shoulda, woulda. Ah well. You have the advantage of a President who loves the American people, wants to liberate them, and is willing to risk "BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS" shrieking from the New York media stooges. Of course, maybe you live in a shithole that lets urban minorities and illegal aliens run amok, while they threaten to throw you in prison and extend your unreasonable lockdown. In which case I offer you sympathy, but not another plan which you might find condescending. They're literally trying to kill you: so my advice on that score is completely unnecessary.
Original Mike: "Yes, Ken, you finally ran into somebody you couldn't insult."
Ken B and Inga and ARM and Howard have a real problem now.
Just enough liberals are saying the evidence clearly indicates we need to reopen the economy....but Inga and Ken B and ARM and Howard have for months labeled that very thinking racist and murderous.
Well, you can see the corner they've painted themselves into.....
What if there was no right answer?
I still agree with J. Farmer from another thread -- we don't know how much we don't know about this coronavirus. I come to that viewpoint partly because I believe it was cooked up in one of the Chinese labs and released. So its potential damage could be much worse than the "just another flu" theory. This recent finding that it may be creating blood clots in some number of otherwise healthy people, clots that have led to totally unexpected strokes, is an example of something we didn't know.
I also think Americans are going to direct their politicians on how to approach. Saw a classic highway traffic jam yesterday; things are going to be opened, we are opening them, even if little by little. The pols follow, they do not lead.
I don't think there was any right answer, and in addition I gathered from Trump's comments during one of the press conferences the other day that he has not forgotten who caused this. "It never should have happened," he said twice, while making another point, and he is right. There has got to be a way to make sure this never happens again.
Imagine being correct through this whole thing and then reading the comments as they shift toward the POV I have maintained the whole time.
Welcome to the party, pal(s).
"but the virus could rattle around the country for months, or it could die out quickly"
Current IMHE (yeah, they change daily) indicate that we will pretty flat-line by June 1. However, since it's a cornonavirus, there will likely be round 2 in the fall.
Kai Akker,
If somebody wants to take extraordinary measures, like shitting down the entire economy by government diktat, instead of through appropriate individual responses to reduce risk, you need extraordinary proof that justifies the intended public policy. Absent that proof you're violating the first rule of medicine.
The burden lies with those who push impoverishing millions.
Just today Nancy Pelosi is arguing Trumps travel bans, which she called racist and unAmerican and impeachable, did not come soon enough nor were broad enough.
Its like reading KenB/ARM/Inga.
Drago.
And let us not forget the bill introduced by Democratics to stop travel bans.
These are heady times for drama queens of all orientations.
Drago said...
Just today Nancy Pelosi is arguing Trumps travel bans, which she called racist and unAmerican and impeachable, did not come soon enough nor were broad enough.
Its like reading KenB/ARM/Inga.
4/26/20, 1:47 PM
Except the moron Dems in the Pelosi Congress were falling over themselves to sponsor HR 2214, the NOBAN Act. Do you remember? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Laslo, on the AIDS/COVID analogies: "I had posted on this several days ago"
Indeed you had, along with a few others. But credit where credit is due.
Not that it makes much difference: as we see in The Panic of 2020, alarmism will always be with us, popular delusions can seize the populace any moment, and politicians can always seek to exploit such weaknesses. Politically speaking, we learned nothing from AIDS.
Progs did, though: they learned that you can rhetorically manipulate a disease (hence, "we are all in this together"), that you never let a crisis go to waste (so, stuff those bills with prog pork), that you can use disease to concentrate power and make the people submit (hence the shutdowns), that experts will readily lend themselves to producing useful doom scenarios that impress the impressionable (11 million! "real calculations!"), that the MSM will never question them and always question the right, and so on. They fight. An epidemic is just another tool.
Breaking news: Obama out playing golf today.
Number of dem/lefties/LLR-lefties complaining? Zero
Bill Gates purchases $47 million dollar beach home north of San Diego...right on the water.
Bill Gates is a big climate chsnge will flood our coasts! type of guy. Just like obama...who owns a beach home..
Discuss.
“I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
we've considered it, buying a hundred acres and telling all these fools to go to hell, but we're not weird cultists who plan to marry our siblings to each other, so sadly that won't work.”
“I'm not sure you should be stereotyping DBQ like this”
Funny!
Trying my best not to be one, Rabel. Some days are better than others.
Those were German Measles parties (not chickenpox) and the focus was on exposing girls to the illness so that they would develop an immunity to the rubella virus, which was known to cause fetal deformities. The goal was to get a young girl sick with German Measles at a young age so she did not get sick with it as a pregnant adult. My pediatrician (back in the days when they made house calls) told us that he would, for that reason, bring his daughter on house calls to families in which one or more children had German Measles.
"you need extraordinary proof that justifies the intended public policy."
And on a newly created bug never seen before, you get that how, Birkel? We watched China and Italy and tried to work from those examples. But if you want to tell me you knew the right answer all along and the world just wouldn't listen to you, keep on writing that.
I am glad some are mentioning the AIDS panic example.
There too, the dems/left/LLR-left was desperate to get everyone to believe that AIDS was at the cusp of a massive breakout in the heterosexual community. The weekly magazines in the US were proclaiming thus constantly.
Recall how they delighted in lumping in intravenous drug user infections as heterosexual spread? This was also done with the numbers out of Africa where young girls were being raped because there was a belief that having sex with virgins could cure men with AIDS.
And as the lefties blamed Reagan for AIDs and GWBush for hurricanes, todays lefties/LLR-lefties are putting the blame for ChiCom Wuhan Lab Bat Flu on Trump.
Birkel: "The burden lies with those who push impoverishing millions."
Of course. But apart from the absurd disproportion between problem and supposed cure, the real insanity was denying that there was any such burden, the sheer refusal to do even the most elementary cost-benefit analysis.
Of course, it would have been difficult, considering that one faction of the alarmists argued that we have real calculations showing that 11 million might die, or 1 million, or 240K with mitigation, or 55K with mitigation in Minnesota alone--whatever--and therefore we had to impose maximum costs, if we only save one life, while another faction argued that we just don't know, this is so new and unknown!, and therefore we had to impose maximum costs--cuz even though we knew nothing, we knew that universal shutdowns would solve the problem.
Fullmoon wrote: In California, we goin' back and looking at dead people from December and January to cook the books. Newsome says it is necessary.
Why, it's almost like over reporting deaths has been incentivized monetarily. More deaths = more recovery dollars.
Our economic and freedom cost would be staggering, yes, Mr. Sullivan. Because the follow-on calamity would be nation-destroying. We would have to give up countless freedoms. Hell just look at the 'Dictators'[Officials] now. We are not just getting conflicting advice, cops out of control, politicians releasing criminals - but jailing average citizens for playing in a park. Pardon my pun, current actions are just 'kids play'. The laws, rules, actions of our 'Elites' during a once in a lifetime economic collapse will astound our population and leaders. If this happens, I feel for the people living in cities - hunger, riots, etc., - millions and millions will feel 'Totalitarian' rule by our 'Elites'. That's a price called 'End of our Nation' versus a so-called pandemic no more larger versus the seasonal flu. Please don't come back and tell us, we saved millions of lives because of this lock-down. Really, some other countries beg to differ - Sweden - the progressives go to socialism pet.
“But the pressure is on, and it's time to shine.”
This Covid social distancing thing mirrors what I’ve learned about people after my son died. Some of people I expected to behave in a caring yet level headed way were the biggest disappointments and some of the people who I had the least amount of expectations for were the ones who came though with flying colors.
The unhealthy scenario you have now is governors issuing edicts that are transmissions of the advice given by unaccountable public health officials.
There is no crisis. Hospitals are not being overwhelmed. The excess number of deaths is, in many places, in the statistical noise.
It is ridiculous to give the power of rule-by-decree when there is no crisis.
In my state, the number of covid-19 deaths are measured at about one person every three days. It is ridiculous to insist that 1/3 person per day be reduced to 0 persons per day before opening up the economy.
The end of official, supra-legal edicts will put the choice back in the hands of the people.
The ones who love us best are the ones we'll lay to rest
And visit their graves on holidays at best
The ones, love us least are the ones we'll die to please
If it's any consolation, I don't begin to understand them
~Paul Westerberg
I caught the end of the AIDS hysteria when I operated on a kid who was bleeding to death from esophageal varices, a consequence of neonatal problems that are complicated but which left him near death at age 18. I was able to do a bypass that stopped his bleeding and he never bled again. The kid was mildly retarded and had some behavior issues. At age 23, he was having problems with alcohol, and possibly drugs. A couple years later, his lung problems, that he had had since childhood, got worse and I sent him to a pulmonary guy who made the diagnosis of AIDS. I wound up getting sued because the lawyer alleged he got it from the blood transfusions he had while bleeding to death. It was 8 years since the transfusions and there was no report of AIDS in blood at the time he got them.
Anyway, that was a suitable end to saving someone's life.
I remember hearing the 50s housewives used to get their children together for "chickenpox" parties...
Same concept depending on what the individual children have each been exposed to and are bringing to the party, so to speak.
Oh yes. Chickenpox, like Polio, is harmless to small children. That may also turn out to be the case with SARS-2.
Chickenpox at age over 20 has a mortality around 25%. My wife had it at 16 and was very ill for weeks.
I wound up getting sued because the lawyer alleged he got it from the blood transfusions he had while bleeding to death.
Which, even if true, you would have no way of knowing and thus no culpability. I'm not a lawyer, but I am curious. Aren't judges supposed to sanction lawyers for bringing spurious lawsuits?
The pushback I get when I suggest we start to reopen the country is enormous. People are so easily frightened and cowered and want to live so bad they are willing to give up their life to do so...
And to keep on keeping track, Scott Johnson on Minnesota:
"With 23 new COVID-19 deaths attributed to the virus — for a new total of 244 — every new decedent but one was resident in a long-term care facility. The new decedents included one over age 100, 10 in their 90’s, 7 in their 80’s, two in their 70’s, and three in their 60’s. Over 75 percent of those whose deaths have been attributed to the virus were residents of long-term care facilities with significant underlying conditions. The median age of the 244 decedents is 83; the age range is from 50 to 109."
You said something once, about the ped-cardio's there, and I think I took offense,
I have never had anything to do with Cook County. I did a cardiac surgery residency as Childrens of LA.
but I am curious. Aren't judges supposed to sanction lawyers for bringing spurious lawsuits?
The lawyer was suing the Red Cross and I was an incidental addition. The story is in my Memoir book. The kid was MediCal and I took care of him from age 8 to 23. My medmal carrier settled with the family for $1500 on the theory that no one knew what a jury might do. That was the only occasion in which a penny was paid out on a lawsuit against me.
I talked to the family, who would lose all the support system that had kept their kid alive for 20 years but they said the lawyer insisted I had to be included.
I did have one suit go to trial and I was awarded $25,000 in costs but, of course we never collected anything.
I think it was something you said about the doctors who worked there, and having to try and keep the residents out of the cardiac ped dept. (?) Maybe I misread.
I probably did say something about keeping the peds residents from writing orders on the heart cases but that was at Childrens.
I just have a meta-comment, which is just a copy-and-paste of what I wrote about our coronavirus response back on February 27th:
"When you talk about things like the disunifying effects of mass immigration or the cultural core of a country being hollowed out, it is difficult for people to relate to because they are abstractions. But the coronavirus response is a perfect example of what these abstractions look like in real life. Societies face collective action problems, and the more societies can work together cooperatively, the more successful they can be. However, in a country as fractured as this one, it is much more difficult to get people to work together cooperatively. And so the government's response to the coronavirus becomes just another partisan issue for people to scream at each other about. If you're a pro-Trump person, you live on Planet A. If you're an anti-Trump person, you live on Planet B. If you happen to live in the middle, you are mostly just shouting in the wind. In other words, America is doomed."
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