Althouse: At the Monday Lunch Café...

April 13, 2020

At the Monday Lunch Café...

63921D70-64FA-41D4-816C-9B26E6085156_1_201_a

... flow wherever you like.

522 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 522 of 522

bagoh20 said...: "Who's ass gives out first... Inga or ARM?"

I was told that scissoring was prohibited, unless you have at least a 6' dildo.; 4/13/20, 5:18 PM
narciso said...: here's a note; 4/13/20, 5:18 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @bagoh—

My sister and I just spoke. The crap that the martinets in central Indy are pulling is appalling. And hilarious to me. Here I live in the center of BossyTown, USA, northern California, and we are all busy ignoring the rules. Scofflaws! We are scallawags and rascals.

Meanwhile, in Indiana, where one can usually do as one wants, there are people demanding that the government chain everyone to their radiators. They have one-way arrows in the grocery store!!!!! Don’t make a right turn into the bread aisle, or the bakery police will tie you up with wet spaghetti.

For the first time in my life, I am proud of northern Californians.; 4/13/20, 5:19 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Your concern for my anus is heartwarming.

If you don't do something soon, slug, your anus will be big enough drove a truck thru.

Sober up for a few minutes and do something.

This fake stimulation you're seeking here in lieu of an actual life is killing you and probably making you a very high risk for COVID-19 infection. Not to mention heart disease and kidney failure.; 4/13/20, 5:20 PM
Jaq said...: "I was not against slowing things way down in the beginning—I took a wait and see attitude. The thing is, I think we have waited and seen.

If the goal of the shutdown was to ease the pressure on hospitals and ICUs, we have accomplished our goal. And that is what we are told the goal was.”

It’s almost like we agree. My big problem here is denial that we are dealing with a deadly and dangerous virus that can easily get out of control. We have to tread carefully or the economy will be in a worse mess than it is now.; 4/13/20, 5:21 PM
walter said...: That's enough Trump. Push past the press jabs.
Get to the scarf reveal.; 4/13/20, 5:22 PM
Sebastian said...: Anne: "The thing is, I think we have waited and seen.

If the goal of the shutdown was to ease the pressure on hospitals and ICUs, we have accomplished our goal. And that is what we are told the goal was."

Anne! You are making way too much sense.

Welcome to the pro-sanity faction.; 4/13/20, 5:22 PM
MayBee said...: My big problem here is denial that we are dealing with a deadly and dangerous virus that can easily get out of control.

I think you are seeing denial where it doesn't exist.; 4/13/20, 5:23 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: MUSHROOM MUSHROOM MUSHROOM MUSHROOM badger badger badger badger MUSHROOM MUSHROOM MUSHROOM MUSHROOM badger badger badger badger IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE badger badger badger badger MUSHROOM MUSHROOM MUSHROOM MUSHROOM

Shouting Thomas! And I am not even drinking! Not yet!!!! Have to do a workout in 8 minutes. Need by 6-pack back.

Link to your concert?

Anne-I-Am. aka S.C.U.D.; 4/13/20, 5:23 PM
bagoh20 said...: Is there a chance that maybe large sodas somehow mitigate the virus?; 4/13/20, 5:24 PM
Inga said...: That “it’s just like the flu” contingent seem to be backing away from that line of thinking, except for Achilles maybe.; 4/13/20, 5:25 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Tim,

But I DON’T think it is a deadly and dangerous virus. Not any more than other viruses are dangerous and deadly. I wonder if part of what happened is that the sequelae of this virus in some people were widely described, in the media, in great detail.

If an accurate portrayal of the way people die from flu, meningitis, pneumonia or other acute illnesses were widely disseminated, some people would never leave their houses.

People think it is an unusual killer. I think we are learning it isn’t. Except to the extent that many viruses are a bit like Ahnuld in the Terminator.; 4/13/20, 5:28 PM
Inga said...: Trump just admitted that he thought of “leaving the country open”, but thought better of it because he believed the scientists. I guess he just panicked, eh?; 4/13/20, 5:29 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: I found Nurse Inga and some of her comrades working their butts off.

It's a joke. relax.; 4/13/20, 5:29 PM
bagoh20 said...: You could say the exact same thing about an automobile, but that doesn't mean all safety measures make sense. The disagreement is about what to do, how, and where.

Like I said, I'm not scared of this virus at all. At least no more than the flu, which I think about for 2 seconds maybe twice a year. So maybe I'm your huckleberry.; 4/13/20, 5:29 PM
Ken B said...: Blogger Inga said...
That “it’s just like the flu” contingent seem to be backing away from that line of thinking, except for Achilles maybe.
—-
Stealthily, secretly.; 4/13/20, 5:31 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Inga- you and your hivemind will extrapolate anything negative out of anything Trump says.
Makes you useless.; 4/13/20, 5:32 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Really, Inga, maybe I'm just being cruel here.

Do you have any interior life or discipline at all?

I'm very fortunate in that I've developed a variety of disciplines for 70 years. Thru this panic, I've been busier, playing and singing more, and making more money than before the panic. I'm still in professional demand at 70. This isn't really an accident. I intentionally sought this out.

How do you face life with absolutely nothing to do?; 4/13/20, 5:33 PM
narciso said...: how many people died of the regular flu this year, was its 60,000, thereabouts,

as to those who have been afflicted, one particular treatment, which has proven to work, is not only not referred to, but actively derided,; 4/13/20, 5:34 PM
Inga said...: “If an accurate portrayal of the way people die from flu, meningitis, pneumonia or other acute illnesses were widely disseminated, some people would never leave their houses.”

When has any one of those mentioned illnesses resulted in 1,450 deaths in a 24 hour period?; 4/13/20, 5:34 PM
Jaq said...: "I think you are seeing denial where it doesn't exist.”

You obviously don’t read all of the comments. I especially liked the “that’s not exponential!” ones. If denial doesn’t exist, why push back on the factual stories, for example about the extra 200 DOA ambulance calls they are getting in NYC that are not even counted as COVID? Or when I point out that the virus is growing at alarming rates still in certain cities, though that has mostly eased with the lockdowns.

Everybody was saying “where are the excess deaths,” but when you point out that there have been in fact a lot of excess deaths in NYC, even with traffic all but shut down, I am told I want the economy to crash. You don’t even want to look at the excess deaths in Italy, it’s heartbreaking. Oops, sorry, that makes me a “snowflake.”; 4/13/20, 5:34 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Economic collapse is just what the Biden-Barisma ordered.; 4/13/20, 5:35 PM
Jaq said...: "But I DON’T think it is a deadly and dangerous virus.”

Case closed.; 4/13/20, 5:36 PM
Francisco D said...: Shouting Thomas said...Have a drink, Inga. What else do you have to do?

Well, when couples have more time together they find intimate things to do and do them more frequently.

I expect a baby boom in 9 months. Mrs. Francisco and I are too old to procreate, but not tool old to have fun.

I think you need a boyfriend Inga. It helps.; 4/13/20, 5:36 PM
Inga said...: "But I DON’T think it is a deadly and dangerous virus.”

“Case closed.”

And she wants to be seen as an intelligent person.; 4/13/20, 5:40 PM
CStanley said...: One personal example: I said I was less that delighted that my kids' happy and busy lives have come to a screeching halt, and that I am worried about the people whom my household supports in exchange for their services, and Inga called this 'entitled whiny mewling.' This is not exactly winning people to your side.

Agree, But, respectfully, that was nothing like the way you expressed your complaint about disruption to your family. Tone matters for all of us, right?; 4/13/20, 5:40 PM
MayBee said...: Tim in Vermont- oh yeah, what's going on in New York is awful. Just not sure someone in Petosky needs to be locked in because of it. That doesn't mean it isn't heartbreaking to hear about people suffering and dying.

I disagree with "everybody" saying certain things, I know it can be hard to separate out people who have agreement on some points but not on others, It seems to me there are a full spectrum of opinions here - which is really wonderful.; 4/13/20, 5:40 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: So... you missed your long awaited colon cancer screening appt. March 1 due to Hospital's Clinical Lock down. Stay home is now set for May 15. Will you be counted as a covid19 fatality?; 4/13/20, 5:43 PM
Ken B said...: Anne said...
“But I DON’T think it is a deadly and dangerous virus.”

And people wonder why I use “denialist”.; 4/13/20, 5:43 PM
MayBee said...: Personally, I'm happy Althouse dropped the "We are helping. Is this helping? staycation" stuff. I think we are all helping in our way.; 4/13/20, 5:44 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Trump just admitted that he thought of “leaving the country open”, but thought better of it because he believed the scientists. I guess he just panicked, eh?"

LOL

So, Sham-peachment III based on Trump supposedly refusing to listen to the experts is going to hit a few speedbumps, isn't it?; 4/13/20, 5:45 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Suffice to say, testing will be delayed for another 2 months. Surgery delayed till....; 4/13/20, 5:45 PM
CStanley said...: I adore you, CStanley. I have spent a lot of time here and can't think of who you are referring to when you say they see this as a nothing burger.

Well thank you, and I enjoy your comments too. I don’t know how to respond because the number of commenters here who IMO are underestimating the threat are too numerous to mention. I’ll concede that it might be that I’m inferring less concern than is actually there just as I believe many of them wrongly infer that people who take the virus seriously aren’t concerned about the economic and civil liberty issues.; 4/13/20, 5:48 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Trump raises $212 Million in Q1.

That's gotta sting -- for some.

Carry on.; 4/13/20, 5:55 PM
stevew said...: If you missed this evenings Coronavirus Task Force briefing with President Trump you should go find it and watch. It is epic. Epically delicious.; 4/13/20, 5:55 PM
bagoh20 said...: "When has any one of those mentioned illnesses resulted in 1,450 deaths in a 24 hour period?"

Just the flu alone in the 2017-2018 season did 62,000 in 13 weeks. That's an average of 681/day, so I'm pretty sure at the peak week it met your target, and probably far exceeded it. Where were you guys then? Didn't those lives matter at all to you? Were you out careless shopping for granny panties, and spitting on the sidewalks, infecting your neighbors like Typhoid Mary. Man, the carelessness of some people!; 4/13/20, 5:56 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Anne said...
“But I DON’T think it is a deadly and dangerous virus.”

KenB chimes in: "And people wonder why I use “denialist”.

Nah. We wonder why an idiot from Canada comments so much on an issue about which he knows nothing.; 4/13/20, 5:58 PM
MayBee said...: I don’t know how to respond because the number of commenters here who IMO are underestimating the threat are too numerous to mention. I’ll concede that it might be that I’m inferring less concern than is actually there just as I believe many of them wrongly infer that people who take the virus seriously aren’t concerned about the economic and civil liberty issues.

That's how *I* would read the situation. ISTM, here we don't talk all that much about the civil liberty and economic issues. I know I emphasize them here because I'm not going to say anything about it on Facebook or Next-door where my friends and neighbors do not want to hear any criticism as long as we are being kept *safe*. It's a case of being able to push back here. I don't want to gt the virus, but I don't fear it. I certainly don't fear it so much I am moved to call the police if I see two teenagers at a park together.; 4/13/20, 6:02 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: ClintonNN’s chyrons tonight; 4/13/20, 6:03 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Tim,

You ignored the rest of my comment. Somehow I am not surprised.

This virus is not dangerous and deadly to the vast majority. Not to me, not to kids, not to healthy adults, not to people of normal weight...no more than is the flu.

Can you honestly describe a virus that is not dangerous to 97% of the population as “deadly?” Really? Then the flu is deadly. (And it is, actually.).

I do not understand why a healthy person under 70 is more afraid of this than they are of flu. And yet many of these same people don’t bother with a flu shot.

This isn’t the plague. Hell, since we have antibiotics, the plague isn’t even the plague.

And you continue to avoid the larger point: The shutdown was to flatten the curve. Our medical system is in a position to handle this virus and all of the other things it has to handle—especially since flu season will be winding down.

Again, this isn’t Calvinball.; 4/13/20, 6:12 PM
Inga said...: ‘Just the flu alone in the 2017-2018 season did 62,000 in 13 weeks.’

“When did the 2017-2018 flu season peak?
During the 2017-2018 season, influenza-like-illness (ILI) activity began to increase in November, reaching an extended period of high activity during January and February nationally, and remained elevated through the end of March. ILI peaked at 7.5%, the highest percentage since the 2009 flu pandemic, which peaked at 7.7%. Influenza-like illness (ILI) was at or above the national baseline for 19 weeks, making the 2017-2018 season one of the longest in recent years.”

Maybe all you folks who think this is overblown, let your President know that he is wrong and should stop believing the scientists and health experts and listen to you instead.; 4/13/20, 6:12 PM
CStanley said...: That’s a fair point, Bagoh but SARS2 has so far reached over 2000 in one day while the country is on lockdown. Also, our hospitals are scaled to handle a bad flu season, and this would have been far greater.; 4/13/20, 6:14 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Bay Area Guy, @Mark, @Drago, @Michael K

Isn’t it about time for the evening open thread? I have a proposition we need to debate. Nothing whatsoever to do with the DEADLY AND DANGEROUS VIRUS.; 4/13/20, 6:15 PM
Paco Wové said...: "That's how *I* would read the situation"

Yeah, I think so also. These recent comment threads have been quite eye-opening in terms of how quick and easy it is to have comments misinterpreted, even by "good faith" readers.; 4/13/20, 6:16 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 6:16 PM
Inga said...: “This virus is not dangerous and deadly to the vast majority. Not to me, not to kids, not to healthy adults, not to people of normal weight...no more than is the flu.”

And why should anyone think “Anne” knows what she’s talking about? “Anne” knows more than world renowned epidemiologists.; 4/13/20, 6:18 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: BleachBit...

I loved it.

I did not care for President Trump at all when he was the nominee. Nor even for the first year or so of his presidency. Now I adore him.

I love his sense of humor. And I love the way he gets right back in the faces of the smug, self-righteous assholes who think they are entitled to run this country.

The media look like the Canada geese who flock in the middle of the road when I honk my horn and accelerate toward them.; 4/13/20, 6:21 PM
Michael K said...: I do not understand why a healthy person under 70 is more afraid of this than they are of flu. And yet many of these same people don’t bother with a flu shot.

The one area where I disagree, mildly, is the cytokine storm reaction, which needs more investigation.

There is now research on the SARS Co19 virus. Before the literature was all on influenza.

We discuss the potential impact of timing of anti-cytokine therapy on viral clearance and the impact of such therapy on intra-pulmonary macrophage activation and emergent pulmonary vascular disease.<

Steroids, so far, seem to make things worse.

Another old drug, this time widely used for parasites, may help.; 4/13/20, 6:24 PM
Michael K said...: Inga and ARM are two reasons why I come here less. At least Ritmo seemed to retire.; 4/13/20, 6:26 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "And why should anyone think “Anne” knows what she’s talking about? “Anne” knows more than world renowned epidemiologists."

Good rule of thumb the next time Inga opines on military strategy.; 4/13/20, 6:29 PM
Inga said...: Then why are you still here MichaelK? Bye, don’t let the door hit you in the ass.; 4/13/20, 6:29 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Michael K,

That’s fair. CRS is no picnic, but not uniformly fatal. I work with leukemia drugs. Some of them cause CRS. Physicians who see it as a matter of course are perhaps better equipped to deal with it.

Still, I don’t read reports of widespread CRS. Is it correlated to viral load?

http://farid.jalali.one/covid19emailpdf.pdf

The above is a little difficult to parse, but raises many interesting avenues of research.

I will be interested to see how population studies turn out.; 4/13/20, 6:30 PM
iowan2 said...: Blogger Inga said...
That “it’s just like the flu” contingent seem to be backing away from that line of thinking, except for Achilles maybe.
—-
Stealthily, secretly.

So I'll try this line of inquiry again.

Exactly how are we going to measure if COVID-19 is not the flu? What elements at what levels will prove COVID -19 is worse than the flu? Show your work.; 4/13/20, 6:31 PM
Michael K said...: Anne, I do think it could be viral load. NYC has subways which must function as incubators.

The aircraft carrier now has one death, which should be a young sailor but an old fat chief could be the answer.

Steve Hayward has some interesting data, that might explaina few commenters here.; 4/13/20, 6:35 PM
Mark said...: Yes, some of the commenters here are doing a really excellent job in being like the White House press corps.; 4/13/20, 6:36 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Inga and ARM are two reasons why I come here less. At least Ritmo seemed to retire.

When Ritmo retired, the collective IQ of both the Althouse commentariat and the International Brotherhood of McDonald's culinary workers increased dramatically.; 4/13/20, 6:37 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Michael K,

Well, if it was a young, fit sailor, the media will surely let us know. Even so...I am not sure that all sailors are all that healthy. The Navy ain’t what it used to be; and it probably wasn’t what it used to be when it used to be what it used to be.

Someone posited that the large number of NYers with Italian heritage might have been especially at risk—more of the interesting population genetics question.

I do think neuroticism and political affiliation align. At least for over-educated white people. Neurosis is a luxury.

Anne-I-Am, the Spherical Cow of Uniform Density; 4/13/20, 6:41 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Michael K said...
Inga and ARM are two reasons why I come here less.

I will now die knowing that my life had some value to others. My path to heaven is now secure.; 4/13/20, 6:44 PM
Inga said...: “Michael K said...
Inga and ARM are two reasons why I come here less.”

“I will now die knowing that my life had some value to others. My path to heaven is now secure.”

Yeah he drops those little dried up turdlets as if they are gold nuggets of wisdom.; 4/13/20, 6:46 PM
Joan said...: Anne: Again, this isn’t Calvinball.

Of course it is. Pay attention!

Between the media and the modelers, it's near-continuous moving of the goalposts, but apparently that's supposed to be OK.

Perhaps another upside is inoculating (ha!) us against this kind of political power-grab in the future, but I doubt it.; 4/13/20, 6:48 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Joan,

I am afraid it is only inoculating the already-immune. Others, it seems to have turned into totalitarian super-spreaders. The petty, tyrannical power grabs would be amusing if the impulse wasn’t so malignant.

I guess the upside is we now know which of our neighbors would have informed on their parents in Soviet Russia.; 4/13/20, 6:52 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Joan,

Just read your profile. We have things in common. Thyroid cancer? Mine was almost 40 years ago. Knitting! I have a yarn problem, I must confess. I need to unsubscribe to Purl Soho’s emails.; 4/13/20, 6:54 PM
walter said...: ARM,
We will count it as Covid related.
Winning!; 4/13/20, 6:58 PM
Mark said...: Martha pre-empted entirely.

But did pop on for a moment at the top of the hour.; 4/13/20, 7:01 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: 6:21 Anne-I-Am.

Sing it!; 4/13/20, 7:01 PM
Mark said...: More later, but I think there are bound to be some quick repeats when MeTV and H&I are on different schedules.

But tonight, Kirok falls in love.

And James Tiberius gets married.; 4/13/20, 7:03 PM
Mark said...: Spoilers, but it seems like just the other day I commented about how AH McCoy did nothing to help as Mrs. Kirok lie there dying.; 4/13/20, 7:05 PM
Inga said...: “An evangelical pastor died of COVID-19 just weeks after proudly showing off how packed his Virginia church was — and vowing to keep preaching “unless I’m in jail or the hospital.”

In his last known in-person service on March 22, Bishop Gerald O. Glenn got his congregation at Richmond’s New Deliverance Evangelistic Church to stand to prove how many were there despite warnings against gatherings of more than 10 people.

“I firmly believe that God is larger than this dreaded virus. You can quote me on that,” he said, repeating it a second time to claps, saying that “people are healed” in his church.

His wife, Marcietia Glenn, is also sick with the bug, with church members offering their prayers.

Their daughter, Mar-Gerie Crawley, told WTVR that her father initially dismissed his symptoms because he has a condition that often leads to fevers and infections.

She is now urging everyone to stay home.

“It becomes very real to you,” she told WTVR after her parents’ diagnoses.

“I just beg people to understand the severity and the seriousness of this, because people are saying it’s not just about us, it’s about everyone around us.”‘

https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/; 4/13/20, 7:06 PM
Mark said...: Meanwhile, after weeks of seeing her only in his imagination, a flesh and blood Six comes on board to accuse the good Doctor Baltar of treason.; 4/13/20, 7:07 PM
Mark said...: Meanwhile ARM, you'll be interested to know that when I put my brown-and-serve rolls in the oven, I kept waiting for them to brown-up and waited and waited and waited. Finally took them out. Now they are too crunchy and fall apart into crumbs when I bite into them.

But still no ham. Which will please Anne-I-am.; 4/13/20, 7:12 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Great presser by Trump today. I rolled back the tape and got his opening statement. Full of optimism and encouragement. Announces that the shutdown will start to be phased out. Main points.

1. Not a single incident of a patient being denied a bed
2. Not a single incident of a patient being denied a ventilator
3. Total deaths attributable to COVID-19 likely to be less (much less) than 100,000

Success. I'm incredibly impressed by the president's detailed understanding of every aspect of this.

I've been opposed to the shutdown from the start. But, that's what was demanded of the president and he succeeded at the goals of the shutdown admirably.

Time to get everybody back to work.; 4/13/20, 7:13 PM
Sebastian said...: Anne: "@Tim,

You ignored the rest of my comment. Somehow I am not surprised."

Anne, you're learning quickly: don't assume good faith.

"This virus is not dangerous and deadly to the vast majority. Not to me, not to kids, not to healthy adults, not to people of normal weight...no more than is the flu."

Correct. In fact, for kids, less dangerous than the flu : 600 kids dead in 2017-18, if I remember correctly -- coulda been two sob stories every single day in the MSM but not a peep, not a single mention of the terrible tragedies on this blog, and what, a dozen Wuhan deaths in the K-12 set so far?

"Can you honestly describe a virus that is not dangerous to 97% of the population as “deadly?” Really? Then the flu is deadly. (And it is, actually.)."

It is. Particularly if you combine it with the closely related "respiratory diseases," which kill even more people. Underlying cause of death: old age. Amazing fact.

"I do not understand why a healthy person under 70 is more afraid of this than they are of flu. And yet many of these same people don’t bother with a flu shot."

I don't either. But that's The Panic of 2020 for you.

"And you continue to avoid the larger point: The shutdown was to flatten the curve. Our medical system is in a position to handle this virus and all of the other things it has to handle—especially since flu season will be winding down."

Yeah, well, but we still have to flatten the curve, and who knows what might happen since we have so many "uncertainties," and it's much more dangerous than the flu, and someone might die if we reopen too quickly, and -- see those goalposts moving?; 4/13/20, 7:16 PM
Sebastian said...: "less (much less) than 100,000"

Now Althouse will give up her cruel neutrality and vote for Trump with enthusiasm.

After all, he saved at least 10,900,000 lives.; 4/13/20, 7:18 PM
mandrewa said...: Tim in Vermont said, "The white noise thing was a big issue, for example, in the whole hockey stick argument, where Mann was trying to prove what he saw there was a signal from CO2 and that it couldn’t have been spurious."

I don't remember any such thing. And I spent a lot of time on Michael Mann.

I think you are confabulating based on the assumption that what other people do makes some kind of sense. This is a reasonable assumption most of the time, but that is not the case here.

What Michael Mann actually did was apply a mathematical function to his data that counted up as up and down as up. That is any change in the temperature, whether an increase or a decrease, gets counted as an increase.

As you can imagine, if you apply such a function to practically any data it gets turned into a hyperbolic increase, and thus the hockey stick.

There are many more flaws in Mann's methods, in fact one might wonder how many mistakes it is possible to make in a paper, but the real story to my mind isn't Michael Mann.

The disturbing thing isn't that Michael Mann did what he did. The disturbing thing is that most scientists don't publicly criticize him. And that, I believe, is an example of the hive mind in action.; 4/13/20, 7:19 PM
narayanan said...: Blogger mandrewa said...
I Callahan said,

"That's the lowest exponent you can use (2). Using any higher number would send those numbers through the roof.

An exponential doesn't have to be a whole number. It can be any number.
___________+++++++++++
I am getting vague recollection of Fourier and LaPlace transform now.

why Are We not able to map out and compare different r0 using a transform like that and fit the data closer?; 4/13/20, 7:21 PM
Mark said...: Six makes a wrong move with Adama. Others may melt at her sexuality, but not him. At least, not him now.

Or does she? Is she purposely sabotaging herself and her accusation against Baltar?; 4/13/20, 7:27 PM
Mark said...: Gaeta is really very uncomfortable. He thinks that Baltar may be trying a wide stance with him.; 4/13/20, 7:31 PM
narciso said...: Metv only does star trek on the weekends between svengoolie (the b movie toundup amd buck rogers); 4/13/20, 7:31 PM
Mark said...: Even so, the episode where Kirk is his happiest and most content was just on somewhere.; 4/13/20, 7:33 PM
Mark said...: "Behold a god who bleeds."; 4/13/20, 7:33 PM
FullMoon said...: Apparently Inga has regained control of her account.

Many here were fooled by the hacker using Inga's handle to post recipes, cooking tips, links to mask patterns and other pleasantries.

Some, and you know who you are, complimented the hacker, actually believing him to be the genuine Inga.

Me? I knew it was mischievous Ritmo all along, playing the part of the stereotypical nice old grandma from the Waltons, little House on the Prairie, or Andy Griffith show.; 4/13/20, 7:37 PM
narciso said...: I remember at the time, baltar reminded me of john kerry, specially how he surrendered to the cylons after the nuke went off. Callis is a glossier traitor than colicos performance.; 4/13/20, 7:38 PM
Paco Wové said...: Fitting a curve to the observed data can be useful, but a more precisely-fitted curve isn't necessarily helpful for predicting what might happen in the future, because it is tied to the idiosyncrasies of the existing data points.

Ultimately, a simple exponential growth curve isn't going to be very predictive for this pandemic, because obviously there has to be an upper bound for growth. A more useful equation and curve, ultimately, will be the logistic function, but it's hard to know what parameters to use for that at this point in the pandemic's progress. (Here's an early example of its use that greatly underpredicted Italy's pandemic, presumably because they didn't have enough data when they tried to fit a model to it.); 4/13/20, 7:39 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Tucker Carlson laid it out plain, concise, and factual. Beg borrow but find a way to see his opening segment on tonight's show. Perspective is needed as well as rational thought. Elderly w/comorbidities are the ones dying "in droves". Isolate them. put the rest back to work. We know who is at risk. Act logically on that knowledge. Concern trolls pack it in already, you've lost.; 4/13/20, 7:40 PM
Sebastian said...: Pop quiz (pick the best answer, kids):

As of April 13, since February, the ratio of Covid 19 deaths to pneumonia deaths (minus Covid 19) is about:

a. 2:1
b. 1:1
c: 1:2
d. 1:5

No cheating!; 4/13/20, 7:40 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: I'm re-watching some BattleStar Galactica as well.
Watched the whole series few years back. Like how trippy it is. Not always coherent, but such is life in the universe

ey!
Trump showcases media lies and propaganda and the Clinton News Network and the Maddow 10 million dollar chi-com baby network pull the plug, whine and pee.; 4/13/20, 7:42 PM
FullMoon said...: Watching presser. The reporters are not keeping a six foot diagonal distance. At least one has a mask on. He probably tested positive but does not want to miss his fifteen minutes of fame.

The little doc wasted no time in calling the latest talking point a lie. Trump ran a video of a bunch of people praising his actions. Naturally, some of the same people will back stab him when opportunity arises. That is what democrats and leftists do.; 4/13/20, 7:42 PM
Sebastian said...: Pop quiz (pick the closest number)

As of April 13, since February, the number of Covid deaths under 24 is:

a. 9
b. 29
c. 59
d. 99

No cheating!; 4/13/20, 7:44 PM
William50 said...: Two things I think should always be published along with any model prediction are,

#1 All data used in the model along with the source

#2 The code used in the model; 4/13/20, 7:44 PM
narciso said...: but of course; 4/13/20, 7:45 PM
FullMoon said...: And regarding Ritmo, I hope he is actually working on a vaccine or a quick test. May be mis-informed but I am somehow under the impression that his line of work may be related.; 4/13/20, 7:46 PM
FullMoon said...: Went by the mall, for fun. Home Depot line 1/8 of a mile long. People are taking advantage and doing home improvement and gardening.

People with homes and money, anyway. Paycheck to paycheck struggling, no Mexican workers hanging around, how will they buy food, I wonder.

If I am broke and hungry, eventually I am gonna start stealing something to eat.

If I am broke with a family and my kids are hungry, I am gonna be quicker to become a law breaker.

Maybe some others here would apply for assistance, or stand in a mile long line for a handout. My kids crying,it's not gonna be me.

Of course, easy for me to say because being in SF Bay Area, no real need to worry about police. Big store employees are not allowed to follow thieves out of building, and rarely call police.

If I was broke and hungry in Texas,or even northcal would definately be more careful.; 4/13/20, 7:57 PM
Paco Wové said...: Not sure I'd want a vaccine bred in a deep-fat fryer. YMMV.; 4/13/20, 7:58 PM
bagoh20 said...: Inga, and Ken, All your BS does not address my question: When 62,000 innocent Americans died, where was your concern then? They died, from the flu, and nothing was even attempted to mitigate it. You keep implying that the flu was nothing compared to this. 62,000, and not people who were on death's door when they got it and instantly were lumped into a highly politicized narrative. In fact, many were young with long lives ahead of them. How will you respond at next year's flu season?; 4/13/20, 8:00 PM
Joan said...: Anne-I-Am, a slightly-belated welcome from someone who was an active commenter in the days following 9/11 but who rarely comments now. I'm around this week because I've been furloughed during my spring break. I'm struggling with "not allowed to work" lol because I always plan my last month of classes over spring break, but somehow I'm not supposed to do that. What are the consequences if I do it anyway, and I just don't tell anyone? My desire to avoid problems for my administration is in tension with my desire not to lose my mind between now and Memorial Day.

In a fit of optimism about my time-management skills, I started a shawl over Christmas break.(I have a yarn problem, too.) I'm about a third of the way through it, and got stuck because I couldn't find my circular needles. Digging around recently for elastic to make masks for my family, I found my circular needles... still haven't picked up the shawl again, but now that I'm furloughed, I just might. (I'm also a wee bit perturbed by the highly deceptive "10 hours or less" publisher name.)

If you want to imbed a link, you use the "a" tag enclosed in angle brackets. The general format is [a href="URL of the link"]text you want to click on[/a]

Replace the square brackets with angle brackets <>.
The URL is the address of where you want the link to go.
It's pretty easy, a bunch of us coached narcisco through it a few months ago, and he has become a champ.; 4/13/20, 8:04 PM
320Busdriver said...: Blogger BUMBLE BEE said...
Tucker Carlson laid it out plain, concise, and factual. Beg borrow but find a way to see his opening segment on tonight's show. Perspective is needed as well as rational thought. Elderly w/comorbidities are the ones dying "in droves". Isolate them. put the rest back to work. We know who is at risk. Act logically on that knowledge. Concern trolls pack it in already, you've lost.

Indeed. You can find his show soon on foxnews.com. The solution can not be worse than the problem. And at this rate, it soon will be just that.; 4/13/20, 8:04 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Fullmoon - burglary is up x3 here.; 4/13/20, 8:06 PM
walter said...: And regarding Ritmo, I hope he is actually working on a vaccine or a quick test.
--
God help us. It would more likely target elders for kill.; 4/13/20, 8:07 PM
Crazy World said...: Great presser by our President and his Administration today, obviously by the thousands of comments posted throughout the internet.
What a time to be alive!; 4/13/20, 8:15 PM
320Busdriver said...: Witmer says you can’t buy a can of paint in MI because it’s not essential. It might end up with someone dying of Covid.

What did she do about the spate of drug overdoses and suicides in MI?

She likes these new powers.; 4/13/20, 8:16 PM
FullMoon said...: Blogger BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Fullmoon - burglary is up x3 here.

I expected theft from stores to be up, and burglary down because of more people being at home. InSF bay area, only thing stopping you from stealing from drugstores or supermarkets is personal embarrassment. Of course, you still have to keep a six foot seperation and wait in line to get in the store. Rules are rules!; 4/13/20, 8:16 PM
Joan said...: narciso at 5:18 - I'd bet lots that this factor was NOT included in any of the modeling.

The premise of the linked article is that hospitals themselves are the super-spreaders, and there is apparently data to back this up. (I say apparently because I didn't verify any of the links in the article, so there ARE links, but I don't know how good they are.) We KNOW that hospitals are vectors for disease, so why should COVID-19 be any different?

This relates to the one of the next of narciso's links, about how the medical industry is vastly underutilized right now. This actually works to everyone's benefit because far fewer people are being exposed to COVID-19 at hospitals... how big is this effect? Is anyone actually looking at this?

PS sorry for misspelling your name above, narciso!; 4/13/20, 8:17 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Fullmoon-

The home burglary is a surprise to everyone. It's been a bit brazen. The local police are asking people to lock up, even during the day.

The Pearl Street mall is a ghost town except for the growing homeless encampment in front of the court house.

East Boulder rec center is now a covid-center for the homeless.; 4/13/20, 8:24 PM
narayanan said...: She is a treasure

oldest chef in the world; 4/13/20, 8:25 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: hmm. joan, will have to work on this. Tried to embed a link to sweater I am working on.

Here is my syntax:; 4/13/20, 8:27 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: well THAT didnt work.

narcisco, inspect and help, please!

[a href=“www.purlsoho.com/julie-hoover-sayer-pattern.html”]sweater[/a]

is that right, substituting < and > for [ and ] ?; 4/13/20, 8:29 PM
Joan said...: Anne-I-Am,
Yeah, that should work.
Here: sweater

Super cute -- I love the idea of the neckline -- but far too blocky for me. I have a huge problem with most knitting patterns making their wearers look like bricks!; 4/13/20, 8:43 PM
Ken B said...: Bagoh
It’s interesting how the claims shift. One of the denialists was insisting we mitigate the crap out of flu. You insist we don’t.

I had the flu shot. I do every year, even when I lived in Michigan and had to pay for it. (I didn’t before I was 40). Here flu shots are free. You can get them at any pharmacy and most large grocery stores. We have advertising, and PSAs. Lotsa folks get free flu shots. How is that not mitigation?
Hand sanitizers at stores are standard here. Have been for a few years. Purelle makes a killing here. How is that not mitigation?
We stock medicines that treat flu. We have hospitals for severe cases. We have nurses and ICU. We have doctors. Perhaps you do too.
I think we mitigate flu.; 4/13/20, 8:45 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Anne-I-Am

This is my cheat sheet:
< a _ href = "link" > words or title < / a >

Exactly that but - Not spaced out like that.
The underscore _ is a space (not an underscore). "Link" use the quotes, and place your link in there.
"words or title" is where you place any title you want to your link. all together.; 4/13/20, 8:46 PM
Clark said...: Hi Anne-I-am et al.,

I tried your 8:29 link. It didn't work for me. I then substituted straight quotes for curly quotes. It still didn't work. Then I put "https://" at the beginning of your url (keeping my straight quotes), and it worked. I also tried curly quotes with https:// and it didn't work, telling me that it didn't like the https://.

I don't know if this is browser and/or apple-or-non-apple sensitive.

Time to put the garlic rosemary focaccia in the oven. (I decided that fleur-de-sel was essential and worth a trip to the store.); 4/13/20, 9:05 PM
Joan said...: Clark: interesting. I cut-and-pasted Anne's text and literally all I did was replace the square brackets with angle brackets and it worked just fine. I did notice the curly quotes but apparently Chrome just ignores those and replaces with straight ones --I did not! The link in my post above is active and it works for me, does it not for you?

So weird.; 4/13/20, 9:08 PM
Clark said...: Joan: Your link does not work for me.; 4/13/20, 9:16 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Michael K,

I am not an expert on the drugs used to treat CRS in acute leukemia. I believe tocilizumab is the preferred therapy. It is an IL-6 inhibitor; I think they have used it in some CoV cases.

It is always useful to have more than a single arrow in the quiver—and it would be especially nice to have older, non-branded alternatives.

Have you read the recent bit about smokers being less susceptible? I am going to have to chase that down now and give it a perusal.

Lots of potential reasons that could be so, but counter-intuitive.; 4/13/20, 9:19 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Joan and Clark,

I am using an iPad. IOS nis very weird about some stuff. I will have to experiment a bit.; 4/13/20, 9:20 PM
Joan said...: Hmmm. I confused myself... I tested the URL separately but not the link the post. Sorry.

For sure, it is the curly quotes that are messing it up. You need straight quotes. One way to do that is just copy from BleachBit's post up there and paste it into a notepad app, and then just use that template.; 4/13/20, 9:26 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: NOTE - my template has too many spaces. the html code wouldn't let me post it as-is, otherwise.

follow the instructions - and let me know if i need to clarify.; 4/13/20, 9:29 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: I love PowerLine; 4/13/20, 9:34 PM
Narr said...: I heard Tucker mention that about tobacco smokers--yeah, that would be something. What about other smoke products . . .

Narr
Wondering for a friend; 4/13/20, 9:58 PM
bagoh20 said...: "I think we mitigate flu."

That is one giant lump of intellectually dishonest, weasily deflection if I ever saw one. You really expect us to buy that shit? People are being destroyed, jobs wiped out, and the futures of others downgraded by years and you have the balls to compare their losses to the normal presence of hand sanitizer and medicine like that was some kind of sacrifice forced on us like this debacle. The heartless arrogance and myopic soullessness of that is a rare thing to behold. What a piece of work you are. When your position forces you to make that kind of dishonest argument, maybe you should reconsider the quicksand your position puts you in, and ask yourself why you avoided answering the question I asked.; 4/13/20, 10:45 PM
narciso said...: <a href="https://www.purlsoho.com/julie-hoover-sayer-pattern.html> sweater </a>; 4/13/20, 11:03 PM
Michael K said...: Blogger Anne-I-Am said...

I love PowerLine

Me too. I go there first. After Instapundit.; 4/14/20, 9:05 AM
Michael K said...: Have you read the recent bit about smokers being less susceptible? I am going to have to chase that down now and give it a perusal.

MY impression is the opposite. That's why it is amusing that California declared marijuana shops essential.; 4/14/20, 9:07 AM