৫ মার্চ, ২০২০
Do as I say... don't touch your face.
I think I'm getting really good at not touching my face, but what I need help with is avoiding surfaces outside of the safe zone of my own house and decontaminating myself whenever I return to my house. It's not easy! What about when the mail arrives? Is the mail suspect? I've long avoided touching doorknobs and stair railings, just the usual avoiding of colds and the like. But with coronavirus, I'm avoiding touching tabletops and counters, I have a problem handing over my credit card and taking it back, I don't want to pet a dog. If I go out and sit somewhere, when I come back, I want to systematically wash all my clothes. I want to wash my shoes! Not just want to... I am washing a pair of shoes right now.
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222 এর 1 – থেকে 200 আরও নতুন» সবচেয়ে নতুন»Paranoia as a survival trait. This does not mesh with a high trust society (aka ours).
Meh.
Over a thousand people died of the flu this week in the US.
Ooh, my little deadly one, my deadly one
Are you gonna kill me in time, Corona!
Ooh, you make my mucus run, my mucus run
Coughing up my weight in this slime, Corona!
Never gonna stop, till I drop, such a dirty germ
Maxed all my credit cards, getting stuff, my preparation’s firm
I’m gonna die-aye-aye-aye, whooo!
Please kill the other guy-aye-aye Corona!
Is the rate of transmission that much higher than the flu?
Plenty of open lanes at the lap pool this week.
Restaurant menus are the worst. Ick.
pacwest said...
Is the rate of transmission that much higher than the flu?
Plenty of open lanes at the lap pool this week.
The people that fund the WHO want a global recession before and during the November election.
Someone needs to invent a pair of gloves with antibacterial agents built into the glove. That way we don't have to worry about touching things anymore!
Or we could all just switch to burkas.
Do the math.
The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die. The flu hasn't been like that, not for a good long time. So those of you who are saying thousands of people die every year from the flu so I'll wait and see if this thing goes big — you are suffering from innumeracy... and you are part of the problem
I am not panicking. I am thinking, calculating, and being rational.
Maybe developing a germophobia is related to having an alliterative name.
Howard Hughes...Ann Althouse...no way that's a coincidence.
Achilles, there is a run on tinfoil.
You better go stock up otherwise your tinfoil hat will stop being able to listen in on the WHO and DNC cell phone calls planning the global stock market volatility and gaming all the data.
the wto and the un and the world bank were all in on china being the manufacturer of last resort, hence they overlooked this matter till it was too late, now with perfect pitch they promote a panic since they didn't take basic precautions before then,
The worst case is having a doctors appointment at a clinic. The possibilities are endless for infection. I have an appointment in two hours, should be fun. You do what you can. What you can't do, is totally isolate yourself from society. You buy gas, you buy groceries etc. The harsh reality of this new virus is that hospitals are not ready for it. All of them are mostly full with ordinary illness. The flu, broken legs, surgery. Seattle has a vacancy rate of 1.6 percent, on average.I think nationwide it is less than 3%. It is one of the hotspots nationwide forthe virus. Schools closed, business sending people to work from home, canceling travel plans.
how far do you go? If the increased testing in Washington state turns up more cases, lots more, do you shut down Seattle, the way the chinese and the Koreans did with their hotspots?
Keeping the kids out of school, increases the need for parents to find baby sitters. Also the kids usually don't stay home, they go to the mall or hang out somewhere.
No easy answers. I suppose the more that are tested, the better we can tell how this virus goes for the next month or so.
We have no immunity to this virus, which now has two strains out in the wild. Yes the flu kills more, yes it is more wide spread.
But treating this like the flu is a mistake. We have flu vaccine, and protocols for treating people.
You tend to take these things more seriously when you are, like, in the old age boomer range.
You younger whippersnappers are welcome to go to the comic con in seattle, which last i checked, was bringing 100,000 younins to the area. what the hell, you will live forever, right?
Do the math.
First case of CV19 in the US near 2 months ago. 160 reported so far.
The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die.
Over the next 10,000 years?
and you are part of the problem
The video is funny as intended, but it also serves to remind of the almost infinite number of ways for cooties to get picked up and passed along.
Washing your hands with greater care and frequency than usual? To me that makes sense, there's almost no downside. But the rest of it? Unless you're going to go full-bore Bubble Boy or something close to it, I think you just need to leave it to the fates (and your immune system).
(Oh, and don't lick the gates to religious shrines, or really any gates. And don't share a pizza with Mike Bloomberg.)
And you should always pet a nice doggie when the opportunity arises. I think that's in the Bible, and possibly the Constitution as well.
yes the public health decisions in seattle, make no sense at all, but that's true of big cities, in Miami the city where I grew up, they canceled the ultra electronic music festival??
@ Althouse
"The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die"
Would be nice if you could link to the numbers you're seeing. There is so much contradictory stuff online. What are you looking at?
Do the math.
The numbers are trending down, Ann, as they find all the mild cases they missed before.
I'm grossed out by traveling on the subway in general but especially these days, and looking for any excuse not to. Instead of wondering whether I'm letting my mind run wild, I feel smart about it. Today I worked from home, as one of my family members is possibly a little under the weather, and I feel like a solid citizen in my bedclothes in the late afternoon. The global virus concerns have slashed my work travel plans over the next couple of months at least, which is not good for the economy, but works for me.
Ghee has an extraordinarily long shelf life, longer if you leave it in the fridge. I can still have my keto coffee even if we forego a trip to the grocers for a while. And if we make it through all the fridge and pantry items, including the ghee, hopefully powdered butter will improve the freeze dried emergency food stash. Thanks to the virus and being around the house more, I cleared some room on the shelves for that emergency food store I'd always thought we should have. If this thing is the killer some say it may be, we can hunker down for over a month, although I'd probably have to chain my kids to furniture. We can also get out of dodge, if need be.
However, there is no reason to think that millions of Americans will die. The quality of the information we're getting is garbage, and the mortality rates fluctuate--we don't really know the denominator, so even the numerate might quibble.
We're all going to get it. Eat well, sleep well, take good care of your immune system, you'll get through it.
We could be off by an order of magnitude or two about how many people are infected.
There's a lot of that innumeracy thing going around...
The absolute worst thing is to go to the Drs office and then use the shared pen the receptionist offers you to sign the paperwork. Quills of doom, those pens are.
Don't share pens with the public. Period.
"The Wisconsin Laboratory of Hygiene said more tests have been denied than approved in Wisconsin."
When it's very difficult to get tested and only very limited numbers are allowed to even get tested ... the data is crap.
Not allowing widespread testing does make it seem like it's not a problem, but it isn't going to build a lot of trust if things start to get worse.
Ann Althouse: Do the math.
The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die.
There's been 3000 deaths in China so far, out of 80,000 confirmed cases. 3 million deaths, at the same rate, would mean 80 million cases.
That would mean that a disease, which has so far managed to infect about 0.006% of the Chinese, will end up infecting 25% of Americans - and we won't get any better at treating it in that time.
But with coronavirus, I'm avoiding touching tabletops and counters, I have a problem handing over my credit card and taking it back, I don't want to pet a dog. If I go out and sit somewhere, when I come back, I want to systematically wash all my clothes. I want to wash my shoes! Not just want to... I am washing a pair of shoes right now.
And
I am not panicking. I am thinking, calculating, and being rational.
Same person, same post.
Money is one of the major fomites. When someone figures out what to about handling it, let me know. Yeah, I know, Purell, but then there's your wallet...and your wallet pocket, etc, etc...
Let's see if we can make some reasonable inferences.
Given these 2 propositions
1) There is some unknown population of people who are carrying the virus who have not been tested.
2) There are several possible reasons why a person who is infected with the virus may not ever get tested.
Now, assuming you accept these 2 propositions, given the numbers we know of so far, which of these possibilities seems the most likely to you:
1) The virus is both very contagious and very lethal ("very" being the 3+% number we're seeing everywhere).
2) The virus is not very contagious but very lethal.
3) The virus is very contagious but not very lethal (probably closer to influenza fatality rates).
If the population that is infected but untested is very large, then possibility #1 seems less likely. This is because we would surely would be hearing about a huge jump in respitory/pneumonia related deaths all over the place (unless you believe those numbers aren't being reported for some reason).
If possibility 2 were the case, it seems like the virus wouldn't have gotten as far as it has, especially on that cruise ship.
Every touch screen. "How much cash back do you want?" "Do you agree to this amount?"
Every card reading device when you insert your own card.
Shopping carts, the wheeled one, the handheld ones.
Good news, Ann. The Telegraph (UK) is headlining that men are "far more likely" to die from coronavirus than women.
In the Spanish flu pandemic the mortality rate was less than 5%. The death toll for the Spanish flu was 50 million before it was finally over. The latest mortality rate for Covid19 is 3.4%. The outbreak in the US and other countries is really just beginning.
The subject matter of this song makes people underestimate what a truly great pop rock song this is.
I Touch Myself, by the Divinyls.
Maybe that's what Brit Hume was searching: "Sexy Vinyl Vixen"?
"The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die."
As applied to the 1.428 billion population of China, this math would mean 13.6 million Chinese could die. So far, there are 2,984 dead in China. In other words, Covid-19 would have to get a few thousand times worse to get to the level of 3 million dead Americans.
"Is the mail suspect?"
During the 2001 anthrax attacks, I had friends who put a recycling bin on their front porch under their mailbox. Their postman very helpfully put the real mail in their mailbox and the junk mail directly into the recycling bin. You can switch everything you can to online statements, For those you can't, the question is, do you really need to open your water and sewer bill?
"I have a problem handing over my credit card and taking it back"
Go to places where the cashiers take Apple Pay, where you only have to hold your phone near the reader. But you want to avoid places where you pay by touch screen.
"I want to systematically wash all my clothes. I want to wash my shoes!"
You could go all in with the personal protective equipment guidelines for Ebola:
"To disinfect your shoes, sit down in the clean chair. This will be designated as the clean chair. Once you’re sitting down, use the EPA-registered disinfectant wipes to thoroughly disinfect all the surfaces of your shoes, moving from top to bottom and including the soles. Be sure not to touch your ankles."
I don't touch my face much, unlike a lot of people, apparently.
I don't care if you touch your face. Just don't touch MY face.
but what I need help with is avoiding surfaces outside of the safe zone of my own house and decontaminating myself whenever I return to my house. It's not easy! What about when the mail arrives? Is the mail suspect? I've long avoided touching doorknobs and stair railings, just the usual avoiding of colds and the like. But with coronavirus, I'm avoiding touching tabletops and counters, I have a problem handing over my credit card and taking it back, I don't want to pet a dog. If I go out and sit somewhere, when I come back, I want to systematically wash all my clothes. I want to wash my shoes! Not just want to... I am washing a pair of shoes right now.
Ann Althouse said...
Do the math.
If I add up all you are doing I get 1 crazy mother. That's the math.
I appreciate hearing where you're at with it, Ann. I respect your assessment of risk. I'm not quite as worried as you are, but I'm also younger and probably less at risk. Please keep updating us on what you're thinking! I have hand sanitizer at our front door an everyone has to take a pump every time they come in. I also have it in the car and we use it every time we get in and out.
So far turns out there's not much to worry about unless you're old and unhealthy, and possibly in addition, Asian.
Why the "hypocrisy" tag?
not much to worry about
As far as dying, at least.
My partner is a bit of a germaphobe. I just got back from a local clinic where I had an appointment (made months ago). My mother was just a few years older than me when she was diagnosed with a heart condition (afib). Having had weird 'fluttery heart' symptoms for a while - much more frequent after menopause...I soldiered on and braved the waiting room. Not too busy, not too bad. If diabetes was contagious I'd be worried. I was in and out - very efficient. Not crowded. But this is suburban sprawl country (south Puget Sound - Pierce county) where we don't have any diagnosed cases yet. Crossing fingers it stays that way.
I was careful while there - didn't even touch a pen directly, washed my hands before I left, no doorknob touching. Shower upon arriving home and the clothes I wore went into the wash. If I lived alone I'd be more inclined to just get the damn virus and develop antibodies.
It probably wouldn't hurt to wash your face now and then, if you could do so without having to touch it.
I never touch my tongue, unless I have to remove a piece of lint, or something. I'm not one of those disgusting people who lick their fingers to turn a page.
Ann Althouse said...
Do the math.
The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die. The flu hasn't been like that, not for a good long time. So those of you who are saying thousands of people die every year from the flu so I'll wait and see if this thing goes big — you are suffering from innumeracy... and you are part of the problem
I am not panicking. I am thinking, calculating, and being rational.
Hilarious. Let's be "part of the problem."
Let's talk numbers with people suffering from innumeracy since you like to talk down to people.
cases deaths
China 80,430 3,013
S. Korea 6,088 40
Italy 3,858 148
Diamond Princess 696 6
France 377 6
Germany 543
Japan 361 6
USA 194 12
Everyone on the diamond princess was tested. Death rate < 1%.
South Korea is the country up there that is going to the most lengths to test people. Death rate < 1%.
This was going on for months in China before they stopped killing doctors off for reporting it. The numbers from China are obvious lies. At least an order of magnitude more people were sick before it was dealt with.
The places where everyone is tested or an effort is being made to diagnose all cases the death rates are right in line with the flu.
The 3.4% number is an obvious lie and is way over dependent on fraudulent Chinese numbers.
Wuhan is getting over this now. This will pass. The world will not end. But you will still be a jerk.
Three Million dead in the US? I haven't paid an enormous amount of attention to the coverage, but is someone trustworthy actually predicting 1% fatalities in the entire population? Seriously asking. I've seen no coverage anywhere that indicates anything like that.
It sounds to me (although I could be wrong) like you are conflating case mortality rates with, I'm not sure of the technical term, "general population mortality rates"? Those numbers are almost certainly not the same or even close to the same. Here are some pieces I found convincing that swim against the current of panic:
Left,
Right,
and (presumably) Apolitical.
NEJM Money Quote: "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."
And a quick twitter blurb on the latest numbers from South Korea:
Josh Marshall Tweet
With all that sniffing Biden's a dead man walking.
3 million deaths? LOL. In the USA? LOL.
The Spanish influenza - the greatest killer Flu of the 20th century - Killed 675,000 Americans. And that's 1918, before all the fancy-smantzy medical advances.
And what is the kill rate of the Coronavirus - 2%? - in order to kill 3 million, 150 million Americans -half the country would have to get sick. That's not going to happen. Anyway, lets say 1 million people die in the USA. That means your chance of dying is 1 out of 330. Or 3 per 1000. That's pretty good odds.
If your really want to be paranoid - look up the death rate for people in your age group. Those are your real odds.
I'm not one of those disgusting people who lick their fingers to turn a page.<
Then, I assume you read "The Name of the Rose."
"I am thinking, calculating, and being rational."
Considering your way with numbers and risk factors, this the essential delusion, magnified by a dose of Dunning-Kruger.
googles
Kings do not touch doors. They do not know that happiness: to push before them with kindness or rudeness one of these great familiar panels, to turn around towards it to put it back in place-to hold it in one's arms. The happiness of grabbing by the porcelain knot of its belly one of these huge single obstacles; this quick grappling by which, for a moment, progress is hindered, as the eye opens and the entire body fits into its new environment. With a friendly hand he holds it a while longer before pushing it back decidedly thus shutting himself in-of which, he, by the click of the powerful and well-oiled spring, is pleasantly assured.
The Pleasures of the Door - Francis Ponge
ah the daily show, I'm sure they were as concerned with h1ni that killed 12,000 people, no my mistake,
Asian.
Go down to the comment by Unz (about 1/3rd the way down, can't figger out how to link to that comment).
It is also fun to talk to innumerate jerks who think the infection rate of a disease is 100%.
Who could sit at a computer and say 3.4% 3 million people can die!
My wife is a nurse in King County Washington.
We are being dubbed Wuhan 2.0 right now by jerks in the media.
She thinks it is a hoax too.
If your really want to be paranoid - look up the death rate for people in your age group. Those are your real odds.
It depends on what shape you're in, which varies hugely within an age.
Like you can look up your odds of dying in the next year from a mortality table - probably it's a lot higher than the virus death rate - but if you're in good shape, it hardly applies to you.
Look People
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS: Professor Althouse is Super Duper Smart!
She, unlike you innumerate idiots has Realized;
That, of the 320 million americans live when the covfefe19 disaster started
OVER 90% will DIE! within the next 80 years
SHE can DO THE MATH! She sees, THAT WE ARE ALL GOING to die (in 80 years or so)
One countermeasure for public policy is to get the average number of people you infect to less than one. Then the disease dies out. It's below replacement.
Need immigration to keep it going.
You know how many people died of the swine flu in the US before Obama declared an emergency?
Over a 1000.
This is democrat media and globalists trying to cause a recession.
And Ann is part of the problem.
Immortality will not always be a negation.
What's happening with the Dow Jones? Althouse usually has updates when there is good news?
How about?
IF 3 million americans die FROM the covfefe-19 virus;
We all agree, to send $10 to our Professor
If less than 100,000 die, she agrees to send each of us $1
Come ON Professor! Since you are thinking, calculating, and being rational;
you'll see it's a good deal for you!
In 2005 Obama attacked Bush for his handling of the avian flu.
Then in 2010 Obama scrapped the rules that were put in place to deal with contagious diseases.
Which obviously led to the deaths of all those people that dies of swine flu right?
The tables may not apply to you, but they apply to youse.
welton was insisting only Asians got it, going back to February, well that's not exactly true, is it, the preponderance is probably Asian, Chinese and south Korean, Iranian, but it has propagated to Europe and the States,
I don't touch my face much, unlike a lot of people, apparently.
There's a video on tweeter of a CDC affirmative action employee giving a speech about how one should avoid touching one's face, while another AA employee touches her face right behind her, and then the AA speechifier licks her fingers to change a page and touches the microphone.
It'll go back up tomorrow, ARM.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
What's happening with the Dow Jones? Althouse usually has updates when there is good news?
Looks like ARM and Democrats are getting the pain and misery they are so desperately trying to cause.
If ARM is happy about it then the DOW must be down today.
Even before Asian Flu we learned to make cootie catchers (starts the same as a water bomb). Those who were skilled in it survived the crisis.
I don't even have to watch the markets.
If the numbers are good then it is quiet.
If the numbers are bad then democrats are having a party.
This will also work with COVID-19.
I bet in a month we are not hearing much about it because there aren't enough people dying to make democrats happy.
“ I am not panicking. I am thinking, calculating, and being rational.”
Washing your shoes?
I agree that the coronavirus is not “meh”. It’s wrong to just assume it’s like the flu. But it’s a known unknown. There are perfectly sensible steps that can be taken, both individually and by the public health system. But demanding “”DO MORE!” and setting aside proven approaches really is neither helpful nor rational.
During the 15 months of the Spanish flu outbreak in the US, it killed 670,000. Mortality rate less than 5%. Covid19 mortality rate 3.4%. Start of Covid19 outbreak in the US was February.
That 3.4% number is almost certainly bullshit.
"It depends on what shape you're in, which varies hugely within an age."
Of course. We're talking about thousands dying every years and each age group contains millions. But "being in shape" simply improves your odds. A fat 50 y/o has better odds of living than a 75 y/o in "great shape".
And Kirk Douglas lived to be over 100. Burt Lancaster died at 80. Nothing to do with being in better shape, or not smoking/drinking. Just pure random chance.
Politics much? Notice the dates and the new focus on blaming the goverrnment.
Nurses [Union] Blast Government And Hospital Responses To Coronavirus
HuffPost March 5, 2020
Many Hospitals Are Not Ready for H1N1: Nurse Survey Shows Deficiencies in Hospital Swine Flu Readiness
National Nurses United, For Immediate Release, Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Settlement Sets National Model for H1N1 Hospital Safety Measures, November 2, 2009
"Now that the President has declared a national emergency on swine flu, it is more important than ever that we have uniform, consistent safety policies in every hospital to protect the public," said CNA/NNOC's Catholic Facilities Division Director Jill Furillo, RN. "There should be no more excuses for any hospital to fail to follow this model."
Largest National Nurses Union Opposes Mandatory Flu Vaccination as Condition of Employment
NNU Press Release, February 08, 2012
Not all the orafices are in the head.
Derb just a while ago was complaining about the logic of washing your hands after using a urinal. If you shower in the morning, your penis is probably a lot more germ-free than your hands later in the day. Logically, you should wash your penis after touching it, not your hands.
Female analog is not yet studied.
The good news out of all this is maybe - just maybe - some people will pause and reconsider their position on illegal immigration and open borders.
Then again, if the murders of US citizens and rapes of children won't do it, I doubt a trip to the ER will.
Amusing that 40,000 people die every year in auto accidents and no one thinks twice about driving. But that cornavirus, OMG!
My favorite theory is that it's a bacterial infection and simply causes TB. The virus is camouflage.
Sounding like a Dr. Seuss book:
I dont' want to touch my face,
I don't want to leave a trace,
I just want to wash my shoes,
I want to wash whatever I choose......
“That 3.4% number is almost certainly bullshit.”
Asserting it as confidently as Inga does most certainly is bullshit. No one knows the mortality rate in a country like the USA or Canada, and anyone who says they know it — like Inga — is lying.
The mortality rate might be that high, and the disease seems to spread. It’s a worry and it justifies the public health response. It does not justify Inga's scare mongering, especially as she apparently does it for political reasons.
During the 15 months of the Spanish flu outbreak in the US, it killed 670,000.
You keep running this out there as some sort of comparison. You do realize a few things have changed in the last 100 years, right?
Daily Mail
Porn sites cash in on coronavirus, with dozens of films featuring people having sex in hazmat suits and masks
Porn star insisted the videos are also educating people about coronavirus
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8077473/Porn-sites-cash-coronavirus.html
'Then, I assume you read "The Name of the Rose."
I did, years ago. I don't believe i read it all the way through.
'Then, I assume you read "The Name of the Rose."
I did, years ago. I don't believe i read it all the way through.
Touching your face is a sign of latent homosexuality.
Jim at
Do you think medicine has worsened in the last 100 years? That nutrition was better in 1918?
"SHE can DO THE MATH! She sees, THAT WE ARE ALL GOING to die (in 80 years or so)"
And did you know that, contrary to common American belief, divined by la Althouse herself, some of us will even die before people older than us?
Best advice I've seen is to wear a surgical mask. It's not that the surgical mask will filter the virus out. But it prevents the ill effects of you touching your face (as we all do maybe 90 times a day). The rest of the fellow's advice was pretty standard for a germophobe. Wash hands frequently--especially after touching any surface outside of your house. Consider wearing latex gloves when pumping gas, or going through a grocery store. Wash hands after the gloves come off.
I'm on the optimistic side about what bad effects if any, and the nature of bad effects, if they do occur, might be. We have a better developed and more effective health system than most countries.
some have regressed
And what is the kill rate of the Coronavirus - 2%? - in order to kill 3 million, 150 million Americans -half the country would have to get sick."
That would wipe out the other half of the country that hasn't fallen victim to gun violence.
StephenFearby said...
Daily Mail
Porn sites cash in on coronavirus, with dozens of films featuring people having sex in hazmat suits and masks"
The thought of having sex in a hazmat suit just doesn't do anything for me.
I agree with Mattman26 regarding the hygiene. I always was my hands when I get home from a trip to the store or whatever. I'm not in the habit of touching my face; I think it comes from when we had cats, years ago, and I discovered that I'm allergic to them when I'd touch my eye after touching them. The habit has stuck with my all this time even though we haven't had the things in the house for almost 30 years.
I almost never get sick. I don't think I've been sick in 7 or 8 years at least. If you're a normally healthy person (like our Hostess seems to be) I don't see where the incremental benefit is worth the worry and hassle.
Separately, my daughter has cats, and when we're over there, I see them (the cats) walking around on the countertop where food prep is done and on the dining room table. You know where those feet have been (we don't wash our hands in the toilet bowl, do we?). She is not fastidious about cleaning (or hand-washing) to say the least, so frankly speaking we're never too enthusiastic about eating over there. (In that connection, the Thanksgiving Turkey, or its local flora, had their way with my wife and some of their family last year...)
Althouse
"The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die. The flu hasn't been like that, not for a good long time. So those of you who are saying thousands of people die every year from the flu so I'll wait and see if this thing goes big — you are suffering from innumeracy... and you are part of the problem
I am not panicking. I am thinking, calculating, and being rational."
Don't know where you are getting that number but if you follow this map over the coming days you will do the math and see it is improbable that 3 million Americans could die.https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
This Johns Hopkins data base is the best I have found. The total number, worldwide, are creeping up at the rate of a couple of hundred a day. Chinese numbers are holding steady. You are in a full on panic. Do the math as you say.
Clean:
- That's not your grandfather.
- It is, you know.
But I've seen your grandfather.
He lives in your house.
That's my other grandfather,
but he's my grandfather as well.
How do you reckon that one out?
Everyone's entitled to two, aren't they? And that's my other one.
We know all that, but what's he doing here?
- Mother thought the trip'd do him good.
- How's that?
He's nursing a broken heart.
Poor old thing.
Are you nursing a broken heart?
He's a nice old man, isn't he?
He's very clean.
- hard day's night
Ann believes that a high % will get it. Then her numbers look solid.
But we don’t need to nearly all get it to kill 3 million Americans. There’s nowhere enough care available for the 15 to 20% of infected who would need respiratory assistance, according to existing numbers. We have no idea what the death rate is for the unassisted seriously ill are when capacity has been exceeded. China met the numbers with doctors and beds. That’s why WHO and Bill Gates are scared of spread in Africa.
I don’t believe it’ll happen, but it might, and I can see how Ann arrived at where she’s at.
Michael: "This Johns Hopkins data base is the best I have found. The total number, worldwide, are creeping up at the rate of a couple of hundred a day. Chinese numbers are holding steady. You are in a full on panic. Do the math as you say."
Oh yeah? Well, that's just Johns Hopkins which, I think we can all agree, is no match in the credibility department with Inga.
Key numbers:
Population of the U.S.
Prediction that up to 70% of us could be infected. This is the number we can and should try to affect. Remember that there are asymptomatic people walking around breathing and touching things.
The rate of death, which could be 3%, but maybe just 1%. This will depend on the resources that will be available if huge numbers need intensive care.
How many Americans dead?
That’s the number that becomes more likely if we don’t work to take control now.
“You keep running this out there as some sort of comparison. You do realize a few things have changed in the last 100 years, right?”
Noooo, really?
Mr Groovington: "China met the numbers with doctors and beds. That’s why WHO and Bill Gates are scared of spread in Africa."
Doctors and beds without ventilators, appropriate meds and procedures will not be very effective against ARDS.
For those that are most seriously affected you need all of that.
There was a recent article in The Lancet (http://www.thelancet-press.com/embargo/coronavirus1.pdf) that identified a small group of 41 patients admitted for Coronavirus and of those, 6 of them died and all 6 of them were on ventilators. And it was ARDS that whacked them.
We've learned quite alot about ARDS thru our experiences with SARS and MERS and all the rest from previous outbreaks and studies done on those outbreaks in the early 2000's and up.
We will only truly know how deadly this is when the US and other western nations have developed a significant enough experience base and can assign real statistical value to the mortality rate.
Imagine being in North Korea and catching this virus.....
Also contemplate the significant transmission vectors that must exist between China and Iran....
Noooo, really?
You're the Ingacile who keeps trotting out 1918 numbers as if they mean something.
“That 3.4% number is almost certainly bullshit.”
“Asserting it as confidently as Inga does most certainly is bullshit. No one knows the mortality rate in a country like the USA or Canada, and anyone who says they know it — like Inga — is lying.”
“3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]
Initial estimate was 2%
Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed.”
with the rampant malnutrition, oh it will be devastating, in iran it seems to have hit the highest ruling circles, apart from the ayatollah Khamenei,
“You're the Ingacile who keeps trotting out 1918 numbers as if they mean something.”
They mean nothing to you because you are retarded.
Today, per Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map there are 97,876 cases worldwide. 3347 deaths. 53786 recovered.
Yesterday, per Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map there were 95,748 cases worldwide, 3286 deaths. 53423 recovered
The day before there were 95,266 cases, 3285 deaths and53225 recovered
I would watch these numbers for a few days before I started washing my shoes and wearing gloves in the house.
rhhardin:
former chemists like myself are recognizable in that we wash our hands before going to the bathroom.
Drago said...
Also contemplate the significant transmission vectors that must exist between China and Iran....
3/5/20, 4:43 PM
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Traitor) just cozied up to Iranian officials in Europe because fuck Trump. Bet he's had some nervous moments.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-you-ask-we-answer-11583266912
"Logically, you should wash your penis after touching it, not your hands."
Or wash your hands before you pee, as a courtesy to those who may fellate or take a poke in the eye afterward?
Next winter, the coronavirus will be another strain of fluvwe have to get vaccinated for. This winter we have no such protection, but winter is almost over.
the 1919 spanish flu infected 25percent of 104million Americans. estimates are 500-675000 died. Mostly from pneumonia type complications. there were no antibiotics in those days.
It seems the MSM is hoping that something like the Spanish flu hits today. I think many on the left seem intent on blaming Trump for anything, especially as the 2020 election nears.
So far, despite a few areas of concern, there doesn't seem to be much to worry about. Just take normal precautions.
this latest virus(we seem to get one every election season) has a lot of unknowns. I am impressed that various state and county health depts are making their own test kits- I read they are doing that in Washington state . More information is critical.
The good thing to come out of all this is people may actually start washing their hands on a regular basis.
I don't have a TV, but my friends tell me that watching the news on this says we are all going to die, and its Trumps fault.
I live on a small island, with daily flights of thousands of passengers arriving from the mainland. many of them are infected with the common flu, and they infect others. That is a common thing here, especially during the winter months.
early days, but seems like healthy folks don't have to worry too much. Old geezers like me with asthma should take extra precautions.
Michael: "Today, per Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map there are 97,876 cases worldwide. 3347 deaths. 53786 recovered.
Yesterday, per Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map there were 95,748 cases worldwide, 3286 deaths. 53423 recovered
The day before there were 95,266 cases, 3285 deaths and53225 recovered"
You see, the way this works is by referencing the actual numbers to date and reflecting on hwo we know what we know to date in terms of data quality and our history with ARDS, the fact that you aren't running screaming naked down the street while painting your arse blue means you are exhibiting clear innumeracy issues.
3.4% is correct for the current death rate assuming the infection number is correct which it likely is not. Probably understated.
Unless the progression of the virus accelerates by orders of magnitude we are not likely to have the catastrophe Althouse is basing her behavior on. For 250 million (70%) of Americans to be infected the rest of the world will be wiped out the way the numbers are stacking up.
Jim: "the 1919 spanish flu infected 25percent of 104million Americans. estimates are 500-675000 died. Mostly from pneumonia type complications. there were no antibiotics in those days."
In fairness, antibiotics might not be the (with apologies) "killer app" against this virus because it is, in fact, a virus.
A virus which causes such significant inflammation in the lungs that CO2 cannot be discharged and O2 cannot find its way into the bloodstream which causes all the problems you'd think it might.
And simply putting someone on a ventilator and cramming increasing volumes of O2 into their lungs could very well have an effect opposite of what we want, in other words it could just increase the inflammation and making worse the O2 deficit/CO2 build up issues.
Inga, I know where the 3.4% number comes from. There is no reason to believe, among those numbers, the number of people infected. There is widespread testing only in Korea, and even there it's not that widespread. For many people who get it, they won't even know they've got it. We simply don't know how many people have it, which means we're almost certainly underestimating the number. That's why the mortality rate is unreliable: the denominator is the number of people infected, and we're guesstimating at that number at best.
daskol: "That's why the mortality rate is unreliable: the denominator is the number of people infected, and we're guesstimating at that number at best."
In the United States, the denominator discussion involves looking at what the number needs to be to "help" a particular party prior to November 3, 2020.
You're comparing apples to anvils, Inga.
Hoping and praying for a pandemic just so you can score political points isn't a good look. But I'd expect nothing less.
@Drago. that's very true, about the usefulness of antibiotics. I recently read something on the use of ventilators, and how they have improved the outcomes for persons with sever lung problems.I'll try and find a link to it. the number of ICU beds available is limited, so that is a concern. I've had pneumonia twice, and both times antibiotics worked, within a week or so.
but as I said in an earlier post, we don't really have a good handle on the numbers, or treatments options.
the coming months will show us how this new virus reacts, and what we can to to treat it.
Drago
The key to the denominator as in climate modeling, is to dick with the data as it arrives by focusing on especially at risk populations. For election purposes the headlines should focus on the number of people over 85 with existing respiratory issues and arrive at their percentage of mortality by all causes and that is headline. Just because they die before they are tested is a matter for historians.
Inga compounds her lies. I said she doesn’t know the mortality rate in a country like the USA. She replies with stuff from countries very unlike the USA.
I just got back from the grocery store. I made an extreme effort to avoid touching my face because there were no anti-bacterial wipes for the cart.
My nose itched more than it ever has. I must have looked the fool trying to scratch my nose with my elbow. I think it threw out my back a bit. Geez!
I see that the Bedpan Commando is commenting on epidemiology now. Nice. She will inform us all about what the DNC thinks we should know.
Ken B said...
Inga compounds her lies. I said she doesn’t know the mortality rate in a country like the USA. She replies with stuff from countries very unlike the USA.
3/5/20, 5:10 PM
I don't know if it's lying or a complete inability to think logically.
You state 2 + 3 = 5 and her reply is "but what about 23?"
Exiled
Nice. That’s it exactly.
“I see that the Bedpan Commando is commenting on epidemiology now. Nice. She will inform us all about what the DNC thinks we should know.”
At your age and with your disrespect toward the nursing profession, one would think that you would try to act with less than your usual odd assholery toward nurses, who your old pathetic ass will be dependent on should you get Covid19. Who knows, maybe you got it at the grocery store today.
The CDC numbers for flu deaths in the U.S. estimate 61,000 deaths in 2017-2018 and 34,157 in 2018-2019. It strikes me that the preventive measures being taken by the general populace for Covid-19 could reduce the overall numbers for 2019-2020.
Here in Cambridge, I went out last night to a small live music venue with about 90 people present. Not a single cough in the whole joint over a two hour period, which is unusual for public places this time of year. People who might ordinarily come to work with the sniffles or a cough are staying home. People are washing their hands more frequently than usual.
Althouse: "What about when the mail arrives? Is the mail suspect? "
EVERYTHING that enters your home from outside, including the mail, the groceries you bought, and any visitors who visit your home, is suspect.
I'm on immune suppressant medication for a kidney transplant, so I am more susceptible to infections than most other folks.
What I do is I put the mail and groceries away and then avoid touching them for at least 48 hours. If I have to touch them earlier, I'll wash my hands afterward.
My nose itched more than it ever has. I must have looked the fool trying to scratch my nose with my elbow. I think it threw out my back a bit. Geez!
Use chopsticks.
"I'm just being rational"
That's what they say to justify their germaphobe, OCD behaviors.
rhhardin: "Derb just a while ago was complaining about the logic of washing your hands after using a urinal. If you shower in the morning, your penis is probably a lot more germ-free than your hands later in the day. Logically, you should wash your penis after touching it, not your hands."
I wash my hands before touching my penis at the urinal.
BTW: "Derb" was and still is a racist.
Do you seriously believe that not touching your face will prevent you from contracting the coronavirus?
You remind me of the scene in Jeremiah Johnson when he finds the sodbuster's family, wife and kids, hiding in the corncrib from marauding Indians. Johnson says to the sodbuster:
"It won't help. Hiding them in the corncrib -- it won't help."
It won't help. Not touching your face -- it won't help.
Ann Althouse said...
Key numbers:
Population of the U.S.
Prediction that up to 70% of us could be infected. This is the number we can and should try to affect. Remember that there are asymptomatic people walking around breathing and touching things.
The rate of death, which could be 3%, but maybe just 1%. This will depend on the resources that will be available if huge numbers need intensive care.
How many Americans dead?
That’s the number that becomes more likely if we don’t work to take control now.
Over what time period are you predicting 70% of the US population catches the disease?
Are we all going to gather together somewhere and spit on each other?
Has this virus developed a way to teleport to new hosts?
Does it last longer on surfaces? Is it more resistant to UV?
Did you flip out when the media and your masters didn't care about 1000 people dying from swine flu because Obama was president? I think we are up to 12 now.
I am guessing you didn't. I am guessing you are just watching the news and bleating like a sheep because that's what you are posting.
Part of being cruelly neutral is letting the media create crises for you so you can pine for the days when we had a "competent" and "boring" president like Obama.
Francisco D said...
My nose itched more than it ever has. I must have looked the fool trying to scratch my nose with my elbow. I think it threw out my back a bit. Geez!
As long as it is the outside it is fine.
It is the mucous membranes and the wet places you need to protect your cheeks and the top of your nose and your forehead are just as protected as you hands.
I am curious about ear wax. Does ear wax provide a place for the virus to invade from?
BTW: "Derb" was and still is a racist.
It's the science, I suppose. He doesn't hate anybody though, so that connotation is wrong, if you meant to imply it.
The term is a little broad to throw around without explanation.
one would think that you would try to act with less than your usual odd assholery toward nurses
Lazy. The thought (devastating retort) is postponed with indirection and then never gotten around to.
Direct: You'll need nurses someday.
Moral High Ground: Nurses help even enemies.
Comment gamesmanship ought to be an online course. It's needed.
Three Million dead in the US? I haven't paid an enormous amount of attention to the coverage, but is someone trustworthy actually predicting 1% fatalities in the entire population? Seriously asking. I've seen no coverage anywhere that indicates anything like that.
UK health official said it was conceivable that 70% of the country would eventually be infected by the coronavirus, and that as many as 500,000 could die. UK pop 63 mil, so that estimate would be 500K fatalities on 44 mil cases, or 1.1%. Asian health officials have made similar projections, like 40-70% of the population infected. Lower than 3% fatality rate because those infections would include the mild cases that might be escaping report right now.
Someone expressed shock and disbelief at some of the forecasts, but this virus is extremely contagious. I've read estimates that this coronavirus is between 100x and 1,000x more contagious than SARS was. Certainly the trajectory of cases, which eclipsed SARS' entire extent in about two weeks, is on an entirely different scale. Yes, the U.S. has a lot of advantages, including forewarning, our medical establishment, and our geography. But we are still human beings and we are two to three months behind the Chinese experience. Our reported numbers are ridiculously low and false -- there is no testing to speak of, otherwise the numbers would be different, possibly extremely so. The CDC was caught napping on this commieflu.
Can anyone explain this like telling me story?
I'm thinking Diplomatic Immunity and Cetagandan bioweapons.
I'm stuck on Disinformation Superhighway
people find ways to dismiss facts, like with bannon, because guo
“Moral High Ground: Nurses help even enemies.”
Indeed they do. And when a nurse hears assholes like him call them “bedpan commandos”, I bet they will go out of their way to slow walk answering his call light. Nurses are only human.
Statistical analyses have all concluded that the number of people who have it is several orders of magnitude greater than the number of confirmed cases. Outside of China, the number of deaths is probably in the ballpark of accurate. Which means that the death rate is likely a great deal lower than the 3.4% figure being bandied about.
you want panic, I can get that for you
"Meanwhile Comic Con will bring together 100,000 people in Seattle in a week. Into an area of America’s only known, potential larger outbreak."
Narciso, I don't understand your comment at 6:16 PM. I checked out the link, skimmed through it. Still don't understand.
. I've had pneumonia twice, and both times antibiotics worked, within a week or so.
I "think" the pneumonia deal is:
First you get the virus, which fucks up your lungs
THEN, since your lungs are fucked up, bacteria swarm in; and cause the pneumonia
Those with viral infections may be secondarily infected with the bacteria Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, or Haemophilus influenzae, particularly when other health problems are present.
Inga: "Indeed they do. And when a nurse hears assholes like him call them “bedpan commandos”, I bet they will go out of their way to slow walk answering his call light."
Hmmmmm, how many nurses has he said that to over the years?
Maybe its just you.
Or do you have some mind-reading "evidence" to present?
Jim at: "Hoping and praying for a pandemic just so you can score political points isn't a good look. But I'd expect nothing less."
Quite frankly, I'm surprised Inga is posting at all as it seemed she was still in mourning for Solemani.
Hopefully people over age 65 have gotten the Pneumovax.
“In the meantime, Berringer said it is a good idea for adults to get a pneumonia shot - a routine adult immunization given twice for people 65 and older or those with chronic respiratory conditions.
"Because COVID is a lower respiratory infection, anything that someone can do to prevent a lower respiratory infection right now is good," said Berringer. "If you're 65 plus, have not had that pneumoina vaccine, it's a good time to speak to your PCP and receive it now."”
https://www.erienewsnow.com/story/41842691/pneumonia-vaccine-recommended-for-some-as-covid19-cases-climb
because somethings Derbyshire has said in the past, which may have been untactful, they dismiss him entirely, as opposed to a whole body of work by persons who have gotten things wrong habitually, are given a chance to remove all doubt,
Ok, it seems like I have the over/under here.
Taking Ann's prediction that 70% of the U.S. population will get infected (250 million), and Kai Akker's, above, quoting UK officials saying they predict 1.1% mortality rate.
Since the UK can be similar in culture and society to the U.S., that comes out to 2.75 million body bags over the next few months.
To give you a point of comparison, in 2017, there were 2,813,503 registered deaths in the United States.
All we need is for CNN to put up a big tote board and ring up the death toll.
I'll keep track and we'll see in 90 days who wins. Assuming I'm still here, of course.
It’s cool that they are cutting the number of flights so that even though fewer people are flying, the planes will be just as jam packed together!
great website for coronovirus stats and general data- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
“great website for coronovirus stats and general data- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/“
Yes I’ve linked to it several times in the last couple of days. I quoted from it today upthread only to be called a “liar”.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT
See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
On this page:
3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO as of March 3
Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas)
Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 4 (2.1% nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
Comparison with other viruses
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
BTW: "Derb" was and still is a racist.
Everybody is a racist - its a meaningless term. That's why the left has switched over to White Supremacist and White Nationalist. But old boomers still quail at the word.
Anyway, you got "Derb" wrong. He's just your typical English Conservative, he just wants to drink his tea, make sardonic remarks, and be a "gadfly".
rcocean: "Everybody is a racist - its a meaningless term."
Not according to MY dictionary.
Look up the definition in YOUR dictionary.
And "Derb" is a racist who has boasted that he teaches his own children to be afraid of black people.
narciso: "because somethings Derbyshire has said in the past, which may have been untactful,"
"Untactful": Derbyshire told the truth about what he believes.
I give him points for honesty.
I believe in racial equality of all human beings before God.
Derbyshire doesn't believe in God, AND he doesn't believe in racial equality.
To hell with him.
Inga
If you say the USA is the largest country in the Southern Hemisphere you are wrong, no matter what your atlas says about Brazil.
Quote all the numbers you want about China but don’t pretend you know they apply to the USA.
“Quote all the numbers you want about China but don’t pretend you know they apply to the USA.”
Idiot, the 3.4% mortality rate is GLOBAL. The USA is included.
“The latest global death rate for the novel coronavirus is 3.4 percent – higher than earlier figures of about 2 percent.”
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop
"Prediction that up to 70% of us could be infected. This is the number we can and should try to affect. Remember that there are asymptomatic people walking around breathing and touching things.'
This is certainly too high. What other flu infected 70%? As for 3.4% kill rate, its 3.4% of the KNOWN cases. The deaths are known, but the people who got the disease, is an estimate.
The 2009 H1N1 had a .08% mortality.
I vaguely remember the "Swine Flu" of 1976, mainly because all the adults thought it was a big joke, and somehow Jerry Ford was to blame.
Althouse talks about 70% getting the virus. I guess that’s the worst case future possibility. But she is washing her shoes today. If the virus infects 70%, washing your shoes won’t help. And it won’t help now either. Washing your shoes today because of doomsday predictions about the future really isn’t rational, it’s closer to panicked.
I'm all in favor of precautions but i'm against over-reacting.
Of course, taking extreme precautions won't hurt you, and may provide some mental benefits. Like you somehow taking charge of the situation, when in fact it may be totally random whether you get it, or how it affects you.
Death rate depends on things we still don’t know. If you make pneumonia part of the diagnosis, then you are going to get a higher death rate. Probabilities as applies to the spread of disease are well understood.... as long as the *assumptions* are accurate, the models work.
"The 2009 H1N1 had a .08% mortality.”
Still killed a good friend of mine.
"Not according to MY dictionary.
Look up the definition in YOUR dictionary."
Bully for you. I live in the real world, not in a dictionary world.
Racism is just another word for nothing left to lose.
He would not go to the hospital though, despite a high fever and terrible coughing. When he finally got dragged there, it was too late for him.
So far in the US there have been 221 cases of Covid19. As of today 12 have died, that is 5.43%. We all suspect this will change to a lower percentage, but as of today the US stats are actually driving up the Global mortality stats.
Do the math.
Locally - all the stores are out of TP, hand sanitizer, masks, and various bleach based cleaning supplies.
not a single case in CO - yet. It will arrive soon, but for crying out loud.
“Idiot, the 3.4% mortality rate is GLOBAL. The USA is included.”
Innumerate.
From your own link you innumerate
“Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas”
Your argument implies that the rate is 3.8% in “other areas” because other areas are included!
Don’t make statistical arguments Inga, you are innumerate.
And racism, oh racism, well that's just some people talkin'
Your prison is walking through this world all alone
Our local grocery store is low on cat food, egg whites and TP. According to the manager, its due to "panic buying". Damn people are weird!
As Soupy used to say... Don't scratch your chickenpox!
you can get an 8oz bottle of Purell for 65.00 - at amazon. Use the portal!
I'm counting squares. and no - I cannot spare a square.
Here is a story about the conditions on the Diamond Princess.
Total number of passengers and crew = 3711.
3711 people stuck on a boat together for weeks in close proximity completely unaware they had a massive outbreak.
So far 696 out of 3711 people caught it.
So far 6 people out of 3711 have died. There are still 35 serious cases left.
A cruise ship has more cases than all but 4 countries.
So far COVID-19 looks like it has a fairly high infection rate and if we extrapolate of the boat numbers it could get bad. It looks like if we crammed the entire population of the US into Seattle and had everyone cough and spit on each other for several weeks half a million people would die.
Fortunately we aren't going to do that.
Seattle is a ghost town. Listened to KIRO 1000 on the way in. The media is telling everyone to just stay home.
At least there is no traffic!
Important points:
1 This is a new virus. There is no herd immunity.
2 This virus can be transmitted during the no symptoms phase.
3 The virus seems "easily" transmitted.
4 It kills people.
5 point 2 likely means a lot more people have it, than get reported.
6 If you are old, you will die, (sometime in next 30 years).
7 Stress and worry can kill you.
8 Don't shake hands, hug strangers, pick your nose, touch strangers. Avoid crowds.
9 This looks more and more like the usual kill rate of a bad flu.
10 Places they tried to pretend there were no problems (Wuhan, Iran) are places hit hardest. (Korea seems the result of weird cult practices at the "church")
11 We don't know if this will act like flu when it gets warmer, and go dormant.
12 Wash hand. Wash hand. Wash hand.
13 They don't count flu deaths of people over 65. Do the same for Wuhan "flu"?
“Don’t make statistical arguments Inga, you are innumerate.”
The 3.4% is GLOBAL. I don’t know how many times I need to repeat that. You are looking at a list I posted to display what the site has to offer. I’m not using it as my criteria. I used the WHO statistics which state that the 3.4% is GLOBAL. Not just China, you dummy.
Look, i can NOT over emphasize this enough. Ann and Igna are TOTALLY CORRECT
HERE ARE THE FACTS
FACT: there is such a thing, as Covid-19
FACT: it is loose on the earth
FACT: of ALL the people, ON the Entire Earth, all 6 billion or so. 90% WILL DIE in the next 80 years
FACT: THE OTHER 10% will die too; it might just take a little Longer
FACT: EVEN the Unborn, EVEN those from 1,000 years from now; ARE DOOMED TO DIE
a
THESE ARE JUST THE FACTS! If ANY of you don't believe them, you are suffering from innumeracy... and you are part of the problem
WASH YOUR SHOES NOW!
you won't be able to do it; when you are fucking DEAD!
Inga, in addition to being a mind-reading savant, is also a renowned statistician.
Also, a counter-espionage whiz kid, that's how she knows despite all evidence Carter Page is a russian spy.
And if you don't believe her than you don't believe in MATH!!
I promise you this- for every test-confirmed case of coronavirus infection in the US, China, and every other place testing, there will at least 10 to 20 people infected whom you haven't tested and will never test- and that 10-20 is me being very optimistic- I think the numbers are likely 50 or more cases untested and uncounted. Right now, in the US, the only people being tested are the ones sick enough to show up at a doctors office or an ER and those people's closest family members and friends.
I pointed this out the other day- the seemingly "one-off" cases being confirmed is basically the proof that the virus has already spread widely in both a geographic sense and numbers sense. The idea that COVID-19 was identified within a week or two of the "first" cases in Wuhan was always preposterous- that it was identified then suggests it had been circulating in China for several months, at least, and finally produced an outbreak large and concentrated enough to get noticed and studied. During those months, it was all but certain that the virus traveled by aircraft all around the world long before anyone knew it was out there.
YW: "During those months, it was all but certain that the virus traveled by aircraft all around the world long before anyone knew it was out there."
NO NO NO NO NO!!
More, many many more, must die to make OrangeManBad go away!!
Get out of here with your logic and common sense!
And take Kavanaugh and Gorsuch with you when you go! Before they, you know, get hit....
Inga
It is a good website. Note the graph of active cases. Downward trend.
Inga said...
So far in the US there have been 221 cases of Covid19. As of today 12 have died, that is 5.43%. We all suspect this will change to a lower percentage, but as of today the US stats are actually driving up the Global mortality stats.
Do the math.
Simple minds make simple arguments.
“Inga
It is a good website. Note the graph of active cases. Downward trend.”
And that is GREAT!
“Simple minds make simple arguments.”
It needs to be made simple to make simpletons like you to understand it.
Relax Folks! It's all taken care off!
The CDC is suggesting lots of weird ways to avoid contracting coronavirus, such as "washing your hands" and "not licking doorknobs." These methods sound kind of sciencey, so we were immediately suspicious of them.
Sure enough, it seems the best way to avoid getting infected is supernatural: many have found that if you paint Chick-fil-A sauce on your doorposts, the virus will pass right over you and your household.
Research seems to indicate that the Angel of Coronavirus passes through each town and city every night and looks for the telltale sign that you are one of God's elect, Chick-fil-A sauce. Those with the correct sign of being one of God's people are passed over, while those without the sign are visited and immediately infected.
It is pretty obvious that China's early efforts to shut down information on this outbreak succeeded.
They knew about this for months before it became public.
The spread around the world at this point makes it clear we know about less than 10% of the actual cases.
I would guess we know about less than 1% of COVID-19 infections worldwide.
The WHO is a joke organization that acceded to pressure from China early on and continues to lend credence to China's obvious lies.
People who quote the WHO are stupid or evil.
Inga said...
“Simple minds make simple arguments.”
It needs to be made simple to make simpletons like you to understand it.
I understand your arguments. That is grade school math. You are a moron.
I posted information taken from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship and a more likely scenario.
That post is for people with triple digit IQ's who otherwise read these comments.
Not ridiculously stupid people like you.
“People who quote the WHO are stupid or evil.”
Well, not everyone has an aluminum foil hat that protects us from the evils of the WHO.
“I posted information taken from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship and a more likely scenario.”
Your scenario is flawed. Think about what might be wrong with it. Take off your aluminum foil hat first, that might help.
If I had to estimate- I would wager there are at least 10,000 people in the US infected with the virus as I write.
Practice good hygiene, but you should just go about your normal life. If the virus is as contagious as claimed, there isn't a lot you can do to not get it except go off the grid for the next year or so, by which time a vaccine will probably be available.
The way the who handled this thing, fills you with confidence does it?
Yancey Ward said...
If I had to estimate- I would wager there are at least 10,000 people in the US infected with the virus as I write.
A lab opened up here that will allow them to test 750 people a day. I assume the numbers go up rather rapidly.
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