May 12, 2019

"It's a joke until it happens. DJT was a joke until it happened. The funniest thing may be the most likely thing."

Yesterday, on Facebook, my son John declared an "Open thread for your predictions on who’ll win the 2020 presidential election. I know it’s too early, but it’s still fun to guess." There were lots of answers, mostly "Trump," but some said Biden or Harris or Buttigieg. After 4 hours of that, I said:
Hillary. It’s her turn.
I laughed and I got laughs:
But is it a joke? Someone else commented...
She's perhaps counting on a brokered convention that no one can win so they have to call her in to be their "savior". LOL.
... and I said:
She's there in reserve. It's a joke until it happens. DJT was a joke until it happened. The funniest thing may be the most likely thing. All the other candidates are bad. I'm not sure the extent to which I was joking. You can't tell the difference between jokes and what's real in America anymore.
I certainly think Donald Trump is by far the most likely to win the election. That's easy to say because his party is pretty much adapted to him. That fight is over. What Trump did to the GOP has played out and (mostly) resolved. The Democratic Party is currently going through some kind of crack-up or evolution. It's fractured and chaotic, and there are — what? — 20 candidates and not one of them is much good. None seems equipped to go head-to-head with Trump.

But John's question is not which party do you think will win the 2020 election. He asks you to pick out a person, and the Democratic Party side is this huge collection of candidates. How can you pick out one and think he/she is more likely than Trump?

So let's ask the question a little differently...

News from the future: The Democrats beat Donald Trump in the 2020 election. It was nothing in particular that he did. He stayed the same. And nothing changed in the economy or foreign affairs or domestic violence or anything like that. It's all about the performance of the Democratic candidate. Now: Who was Democratic candidate?

I'll stick with my Hillary answer!

209 comments:

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Narayanan said...

You may want to make it a family maths project.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-the-democrats-will-limit-the-debate-field-if-too-many-people-qualify/

You will need tastier bribe than mere popcorn.

wwww said...

"Clinton didn't win a majority of the voters any of those states in 2016, "

NV, VA: I'm making my prediction based not just on demographics but on the state legislatures and voting patterns in 2018.

Gospace said...

dreams said...
"The 2000 election was actually the first time that the democrats resisted turning over the power of government to the legitimate winning party, a prelude to 2016.


1860 was the first time.

Fen said...

"Another, close, 50-50 election - keep our fingers crossed that the economy stays hot."

Agreed. If I remove the names from the democrat candidates and view the race objectively, it seems that whoever survivres that field to win the primary will be a contender to be taken seriously.

The GOP needs to get inside the Democrat primaries and disrupt. The Left doesn't respect the results of the election anyway, so the Right eould be wise to play dirty.


Fen said...

Seriously, the Democrats just attempted a soft coup. And we're still playing by Roberts Rules of Order.

The norms are no longer in play. We should have 15 Blasy Fords already set to accuse _____ of heading a Rape Club in college.

jg said...

Has Hillary's health improved significantly? She's going to be 4 years of brutal hard-drinking (+pills?) aging more unelectable than last time unless I'm missing something.

MaxedOutMama said...

Biden. He's incredibly old, but only four years older than Trump, and he knows how to run a campaign that should appeal to the working class people that pulled out for Trump.

Hillary was a terrible candidate who has made herself look even worse after the election. Not her. She would have no chance to win, and she has no chance for the nomination.

Gahrie said...

I'll believe the Democratic nominee isn't Hillary when I see the stake through her heart.

mockturtle said...

Wow, Bilwick! Nice find! She is also a sociopath.

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