I click through to this page from Drudge because, having watched the podcast video yesterday, I really was interested in what he said about the likelihood that our reality is a simulation. Oh, I also got an email from Obama yesterday that had the subject line "Reality," blogged here. Obama implored me to "embrace reality," strangely enough.
But what is reality? For Obama, reality is realizing that you must get out and vote against Republicans. Musk uses his big brain to wonder what's really going on, and, when asks to speculate, imagines that it's more likely than not that the world we perceive is the inside of something like a video game made by some civilization that some time in the 13.8 billion years that the universe has existed. We see how far earthly humans have gone in developing video games in the last few decades:
"If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then games will be indistinguishable from reality, or civilization will end. One of those two things will occur," Musk said. "Therefore, we are most likely in a simulation, because we exist. I think most likely — this is just about probability — there are many, many simulations," he added. "You might as well call them reality, or you could call them multiverse."Our video games are more exciting than our world, so the inference is that if our world is a creation of other beings, their world (the substrate) must be really boring.
The "substrate" on which these simulations are running, whatever it may be, is probably quite boring, at least compared to the simulations themselves, Musk further told Rogan. "Why would you make a simulation that's boring? You'd make a simulation that's way more interesting than base reality," Musk said, citing the video games and movies that humanity makes, which are "distillation[s] of what's interesting about life."
Also at the Space.com link, Musk's description of the private world of the inside of his own head: "it's like a never-ending explosion." Which makes you wonder why he wouldn't like a cup of coffee in reverse.
ADDED: By the way, "Tesla stock closes down 6% after top executives resign and Elon Musk smokes weed on video" (CNBC).
Shares of Tesla plunged as much as 9 percent Friday after news of a pair of C-suite executive resignations and a bizarre video showing CEO Elon Musk smoking pot on a podcast, capping a tumultuous month since Musk launched the company into controversy with a take-private tweet.Can any of you lawyers tell me at what point Musk could get into legal trouble if he is deliberately causing the stock price to fall to lower the price of taking the company private?
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Elon, trees don’t grow to the sky. And your stock just proved that.
”"If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then games will be indistinguishable from reality, or civilization will end. One of those two things will occur," Musk said.”
What David said. Why are we limited to assuming a positive rate of improvement out to infinity?
so.....
folks like Eron Musk have NO PROBLEM assuming that the world was created by Game Programmers in some Distant Galaxy?
I'M assuming that these folks have NO PROBLEM assuming that the idea that the universe was created by GOD is Just Stupid; 'cause after all, If GOD created the universe, then Who Created GOD?
Elon discovers Eternity. He cannot control it, so he smokes some dope. Now that is boring.
.
Reality is what Democrats in the media tell you it is. Anybody who reads a lot of philosophy knows that that goes without saying. One of the problems with this blog is that it encourages people to waste their time “thinking” about stuff, looking under the covers for motivations and deeper realities when the Democrats and the New York Times have already done all of this for us. Not that the Republicans would be any better, but they don’t control the press.
Now Althouse is thinking like a Master of the Universe.
Great theory, but how would you prove it? It’s all Musk and that’s why it is such a smart scheme. I suppose when he takes it private at $50, lawsuits will be filed. The bigger risk now is that the Board fires him.
Anything that the New York Times or Washington Post leaves out is not worth thinking about. Occam’s Razor and all, the simplest explanation that covers all of the facts presented by the Washington Post is the correct explanation. It’s Philosophy 101. Heck, they even teach that in computer logic class!
The Air Force is now apparently looking into its contracts with SpaceX because pot use is verboten amongst Air Force contractors.
SpaceX has been a great success. Does the Air Force even use it's own rockets anymore?
Stupidity abounds!
If the universe were my simulation, it would have a lot more natural disasters. Earthquakes. Large objects falling from the sky. People being incinerated by highly concentrated sunlight.
I probably should not be allowed to own an ant farm...
Dave said: The bigger risk now is that the Board fires him.
the BIGGEST risk is that people notice that Tesla's are overpriced pieces of crap, with No Support infrastructure; and decide that Maybe they'd be better off, with a car made by a Car Company: with dealerships and service centers*.
service centers* this is where some paid shill will say; "but with Electric Cars! you don't need service centers!! and *I* say; if you bought one of those gung-ho cars made in a tent, you're going to NEED a service center to fix all the things that left the tent broken
”If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then games will be indistinguishable from reality,
Oh, for some part of the population, games are already indistinguishable from reality. I mean, who reads that letter from Obama with any level of credulity?
Test him for marijuana! I'll bet it comes out negative.
In the podcast he says he doesn't think of the company as a company and he doesn't think of the car as a car.
He sees all of it as a way for him to have fun, to do something with the continuing explosion that is his mind, and what he wants to do is benefit people — by giving us fun and by saving us from various looming disasters (e.g. domination by AI).
Who invested in Tesla? People who wanted their fortune linked to the genius of Elon Musk. It's like marrying for better or for worse. They have their man, their genius, and if they don't like it, they're free to sell.
I own the VIVE VR goggles. Virtual reality is the arena, I think, in which we'll discover whether we live in a simulation.
The tech is still pretty clunky. Goggles, trackers the user holds in his hands. Nothing that compelling in available games and simulations.
Here's the dilemma for the VR programmer. In a virtual game or drama, every branch in the user's decision tree must be generated upon demand. How to achieve this?
My thought here is that AI will have to be the programming engine. You can't program infinite branches at every decision juncture. The programmer must create the AI capability to generate each potential navigation branch the user chooses.
How did God or the gods do this?
“ ‘Therefore, we are most likely in a simulation, because we exist.’ ”
If we are in a simulation, then we *don’t* exist.
Also, it’s a big jump from “ ‘games will be indistinguishable from reality’ ” to “ ‘Therefore...’ ”.
My bet is that Musk smokes. Probably all the time. The most expensive designer weed you can buy.
He would be a fool not to.
Elon is Tesla's largest stockholder, I don't know how low he wants the share price.
Remember Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown? I think there is something about the combination of nicotine and marijuana that can effect at least some people in very bad ways.
Simulation is a way to convince yourself you've avoided the philosophical problem you started out to solve. You just take your consciousness as the sending of physical data somewhere else, where "somebody" reads it.
It's the most elementary mistake. The "somebody" has the same philosophical problem all over again.
Althouse wrote, “and what he wants to do is benefit people — by giving us fun and by saving us from various looming disasters (e.g. domination by AI)“
Total BS. Just like when someone isn’t doing something for the money. It’s always about the money when that statement is made.
As noted above, Musk is Tesla’s largest shareholder. I’d like to see how much cash and bonds he has.
They have their man, their genius, their Obama.
Put not your faith in princes or frogs.
Preston Tucker and Henry Kaiser also were very smart people.
Preston Tucker and Henry Kaiser also were very smart people.
OTOH Henry Ford was a rube.
It would be a breach of fiduciary duty by an officer of the company to intentionally reduce the value of the company, which is grounds for criminal/civil penalties, as well as being unable to serve as an officer of any other company. In real terms, he could get jail time (similar to insider trading), sued by shareholders (that's already happening), and kicked off all boards (Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity).
How did God or the gods do this?
I think the Universe has infinite degrees of freedom, and at the same time, it’s unfolding inexorably on a fixed path, according to the “no free will” types. I suppose the trick would be to make us just stupid enough that we find it impossible to see the illusion.
BTW, I just learned that while marijuana is “legal” in Vermont, don’t toke up in a boat on the lake or you will run afoul of Federal laws, per a friend in law enforcement there.
If this life is an alien video game simulation then they've coded it with too much grinding and not enough achievement endorphins.
Musk has said for years that he thinks the stock value of Tesla was overheated. Now he is comparing the grief and pressure to be profitable he is getting from the shareholders in Tesla to the total lack of the same he gets when dealing with SpaceX and The Boring Company and has decided he wants the same for Tesla.
The bigger risk now is that the Board fires him.
Which is exactly why he wants to take Tesla private.
"it's like a never-ending explosion."
He sounds so much like me it's scary. I can remember telling my wife of the "orchestra" in my head. I think the fact I don't get lonely always bothered her - she needed to be needed while I'm perfectly content with the parade of ideas I have.
If I only had Musk's money, y'all would be in TROUBLE.
There are two big batches of convertible bonds coming due in the next 12 months. If the stock stays down, or they take the stock private, then they have to pay cash for the bonds instead of stock. And at the current burn rate, he doesn't have the cash to pay them off.
The shorts are the rational buyers when it comes to Tesla.
He presents some interesting speculations about the nature of the universe. I like the idea that we exist in some kind of simulation. I've always thought that natural selection was a klutzy kind of way of reaching perfection. It's far more comforting to believe that we're avatars in some primitive computer game. We're Space Invaders but our grandchildren shall live in Grand Theft Auto. As I slouch onwards oblivion, such thoughts about the nature of the universe give me comfort in my old age.
Atheism is a recent phenomenon. In former times, people speculated on who the true God(s) truly were or on whether prayer, good works, or faith could influence His workings on earth. Although no one was agreed as to the nature and influence of God, no one doubted His existence. Perhaps atheism was just a transitional belief.. This talk of sumulation is an effort to find some ultimate purpose or meaning in our existence. Computer avatars are not as cool as being fashioned in the image and likeness of God, but they're rather a step up from humanity being a chance by-product of primeval slime.
"Musk uses his big brain to wonder what's really going on, and, when asks to speculate, imagines that it's more likely than not that the world we perceive is the inside of something like a video game made by some civilization that some time in the 13.8 billion years that the universe has existed."
Actually, Musk used his big eyeballs to read some science fiction ideas, as recycled without credit by various academics.
There was even a paper where they claimed to demonstrate mathematically that the probability that The Universe is a simulation is some number approaching unity. Musk tones that pseudoscientific drivel down to "most likely", because he can't remember the details. Musk is not a man for details.
Musk is a bullshitter like the Theranos lady.
Jeff Sessions is going to arrest Musk for smoking weed. Then deport him back to South Africa.
Musk is a bullshitter like the Theranos lady.
So SpaceX isn't really building reusable rockets and thousands of people aren't driving around in electric cars? You may think that Tesla and SpaceX are bad ideas, but they are no where near being outright frauds.
There are two big batches of convertible bonds coming due in the next 12 months. If the stock stays down, or they take the stock private, then they have to pay cash for the bonds instead of stock. And at the current burn rate, he doesn't have the cash to pay them off.
The idea was (which to be honest even I thought was a little weird) to get a major investment from the Saudis and use that to take the company private and pay the bonds.
The blunt was a mix of ganga and tobacco. He took a curtsy puff not really inhaling and said he felt no effects.
He did say he would try sensory deprivation tank to calm the explosions, although he was skeptical and worried it would make it worse.
The Musk hate is just the hatred of your own inadequacy which is magnified by his greatness. You have to tear him down to elevate yourself. You are Stalinist
Scott Adams makes a big deal about smoking MJ every night, and how it helped him overcome a medical problem (I forgot what).
It struck me as self-deceiving nonsense. It reminds me of people saying that 2 glasses of wine at night, cures their insomnia
Jupiter is correct- this isn't Musk's novel idea at all even though it is presented as such in multiple stories in the last couple of years. In any case, this "simulation" talk is kind of pointless in the end- your reality is what it is.
The programmer must create the AI capability to generate each potential navigation branch the user chooses.
How did God or the gods do this?
The "universe" is believed to be infinite but bounded. We are a constellation of limits within that space. Furthermore, science cannot discern origin and expression.
Blogger gilbar said...
if you bought one of those gung-ho cars made in a tent, you're going to NEED a service center to fix all the things that left the tent broken
True except that these cars were not made to be sold, for actual money to actual customers.
These cars were made to be stashed in lots all over the place to that Tesla could say that they reached the "production" goal.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-model-3-cars-are-sitting-in-california-parking-lots-2018-7/
I have no idea what the end game is. Do they bring them back in and beat them into salable condition? Who in their right mind would buy one?
But then, who in their right mind would buy a Tesla even if normally produced? Mainly people with more money than brains, I suspect.
John Henry
Chili Peppers Can't Stop
Can't stop, addicted to the shindig
Chop Top, he says I'm gonna win big
Choose not a life of imitation
Distant cousin to the reservation
Defunct, the pistol that you pay for
This punk, the feelin' that you stay for
In time I want to be your best friend
East side love is living on the West End
Knocked out, but boy, you better come to
Don't die, you know, the truth is some do
Go write your message on the pavement
Burnin' so bright, I wonder what the wave meant
White heat is screamin' in the jungle
Complete the motion if you stumble
Go ask the dust for any answers
Come back strong with fifty belly dancers
[Chorus]
The world I love, the tears I drop
To be part of the wave, can't stop
Ever wonder if it's all for you?
The world I love, the trains I hop
To be part of the wave, can't stop
Come and tell me when it's time to
[Verse 2]
Sweetheart is bleeding in the snow cone
So smart, she's leadin' me to ozone
Music, the great communicator
Use two sticks to make it in the nature
I'll get you into penetration
The gender of a generation
The birth of every other nation
Worth your weight, the gold of meditation
This chapter's gonna be a close one
Smoke rings, I know you're gonna blow one
All on a spaceship, persevering
Use my hands for everything but steering
Can't stop the spirits when they need you
Mop tops are happy when they feed you
J. Butterfly is in the treetop
Birds that blow the meaning into bebop
[Chorus]
The world I love, the tears I drop
To be part of the wave, can't stop
Ever wonder if it's all for you?
The world I love, the trains I hop
To be part of the wave, can't stop
Come and tell me when it's time to
[Interlude]
Wait a minute, I'm passin' out win or lose, just like you
Far more shockin' than anything I ever knew, how about you?
Ten more reasons why I need somebody new, just like you
Far more shockin' than anything I ever knew, right on cue
[Verse 3]
Can't stop, addicted to the shindig
Chop Top, he says I'm gonna win big
Choose not a life of imitation
Distant cousin to the reservation
Defunct, the pistol that you pay for
This punk, the feelin' that you stay for
In time I want to be your best friend
East side love is living on the West End
Knocked out, but boy, you better come to
Don't die, you know, the truth is some do
Go write your message on the pavement
Burnin' so bright, I wonder what the wave meant
Kick start the golden generator
Sweet talk but don't intimidate her
Can't stop the gods from engineering
Feel no need for any interfering
Your image in the dictionary
This life is more than ordinary
Can I get two, maybe even three of these?
Comin' from the space to teach you of the Pleiades
Can't stop the spirits when they need you
This life is more than just a read-through
Blogger Shouting Thomas said...
The tech is still pretty clunky. Goggles, trackers the user holds in his hands. Nothing that compelling in available games and simulations.
3-4 years ago I had a demo of a VR system by Miller Electric (One of the big makers of welding machines). A normal welder's helmet with the glass replaced by a VR screen of a NASCAR shop.
A stick welding stinger with haptic feedback. When I laid down a welding bead, it was so realistice, sight, sound, feel, that I swore I felt weld spatter on my hands.
They sell it as a teaching tool since it could analyze and quantitatively grade how good a weld I made.
It blew me away completely.
Tuesday I will be at a press event demonstrating what they are billing as the next level in VR. I am looking forward to it.
John Henry
What percentage of Musk's net worth is tied up in Tesla?
If it fails, is he broke?
Bezos has virtually everything tied up in Amazon. A bit in WaPo and Blue Origins but neither of them are worth much at the moment and probablyu represent less than 1% of his net worth.
In other words, Bezo has a strong personal incentive to making sure Amazon succeeds. Skin in the game.
Does Musk?
John Henry
Bezos is richer but Musk got to space first. I remember when American Men prefered to get real hard dangerous shit done. The regulatory age has turned everyone squishy.
Isn't tobacco a stimulant? Is mixing tobacco and marijuana like putting booze in coffee?
William said...
"Atheism is a recent phenomenon."
No it isn't. We've all been atheists, from birth, since the beginning of man. We're just later taught not to acknowledge that, just as we're taught leaving your mind unencumbered by nonsense is odd, and worthy of a name, while adopting superstitions is healthy and intelligent.
"In former times, people speculated on who the true God(s) truly were or on whether prayer, good works, or faith could influence His workings on earth."
Holding us back thousands of years.
"Although no one was agreed as to the nature and influence of God, no one doubted His existence."
And many still don't, despite the evidence.
"Perhaps atheism was just a transitional belief.."
It's not a belief. That's the first problem the religious have with comprehending it. They can understand that 2,999 religions are false, but THEIRS? No way.
"This talk of sumulation is an effort to find some ultimate purpose or meaning in our existence."
I feel sorry for them.
"Computer avatars are not as cool as being fashioned in the image and likeness of God, but they're rather a step up from humanity being a chance by-product of primeval slime."
Please. It's that rejection of our true nature - Oh, no, we're SPECIAL - that is the source of all of our problems.
We're on a rock, floating through the vast emptiness of space, alone. Get over it.
If Musk thinks smoking the lettuce is the reverse of coffee, he needs to partake in a sativa strain. He'll be up all night cleaning the house.
"We've all been atheists, from birth, since the beginning of man." Actually, it's probably the other way around. When humans are born, they are not atheists or theists. As they develop and begin to experience the world, things that are more advanced and more powerful then them become gods to them. Then as they get older, and learn about science and technology, they start to understand that adults and airplanes are not gods. As Arthur C. Clarke once said, "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
He thinks he's Tony Stark.
"The Musk hate is just the hatred of your own inadequacy which is magnified by his greatness. You have to tear him down to elevate yourself. You are Stalinist"
File this comment under 'motivated reasoning, clear example.' Howard needs a way to accuse us of what is one of the known failings of the left, so he cued up that nonsense.
Stalin was of the right, you can look it up!
He thinks he's Tony Stark.
Well to be fair, people have been telling him he is for the last decade.....there is a reason he has an appearance in the Ironman movie.
In other words, Bezo has a strong personal incentive to making sure Amazon succeeds. Skin in the game.
Does Musk?
Musk is the single largest stockholder in Tesla, and at one time had literally his last dollar tied up in the company.
tim in vt. you are ignorant of basic human nature. what I describe is a fundimental tenant of the ideologue who must cleave to his "team" to feel complete, human. It's the mask you haters are forced to wear. Lefty's and Righty's do this in equal measure because human nature. Not every right winger on this blog is an ideologue, but thanks for self-identifying as an ideologue thus proving my point for me. QED
I hate marijuana. It's an assault on my nose. Even driving to work in the morning in traffic someone is smoking the freaking stuff. No matter where I go these days, someone is smoking Marijuana. They just don't care anymore. Even the rules and regulations they are ignoring because they learned if you ignore marijuana laws long enough, you can get away with it.
Terrible message to send.
My son and I were helping friends move their business furniture and tear apart a floor. For hours we were taking long 8x4 3/4 sheets of plywood out the front door and around the side of the building and stacking them in the back. A couple started smoking marijuana in the ally we were moving through. Caused my son to have an asthma attack.
I freaking hate marijuana.
Can any of you lawyers tell me at what point Musk could get into legal trouble if he is deliberately causing the stock price to fall to lower the price of taking the company private?
The "going private" thing was the start (midpoint?) of some very erratic behavior from Musk.
Tesla is not a candidate for a leveraged buyout.
A leveraged buyout is what you do when you have a cash generating business that is undervalued by the market. The classic example is RJ Reynolds / Nabisco, which was undervalued because people didn't want to own a cigarette company.
The company's management captures the excess value by a) buying the company with borrowed money, and b) using the positive cash flow to pay off the loans.
Tesla loses billions of dollars a year. They can't take it private, because there's no cash flow to pay off the loans.
Zach gives a good answer.
I understand Chuck is a lawyer, too, but I doubt he's interested in answering your question until you explain how it can be used to harm Trump..
Sure Howard.
He never really got to what I think is the most compelling argument for "we're all living in a simulation", although he alluded to it when he said "probabilistically, this is a simulation". The idea is that if you consider any given civilization, they will build the best simulation they can (as do we, although our paltry simulations are laughable compared to what he's suggesting). So reality is supposed to consist of a series of civilizations one of which is the "base" level, and the rest of which are simulations upon simulations. The question is, given that the universe is billions of years old, and our civilization is perhaps 10k years old, what are the odds that we are the base simulation, vs the odds that we are some simulation down the stack. I was surprised that he didn't pull that one out, perhaps he thought it might be too hard to explain to Rogan, who seemed obsessed with the idea that the simulation was coming, and we were going to invent it, rather than the idea that it's already here, and we're in it.
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