"Wellesnet," the online Orson Welles news and fan site has noted that Donald Trump's campaign is coming, more and more, to resemble the doomed election bid of Charles Foster Kane in the 1941 film. One will remember that things for Citizen Kane started to come unraveled when he threatened, at a big rally, to prosecute his opponent once elected.Citizen Kane was a movie about a character who, of course, didn't think of himself as a character in a movie. He was not aware of the drama of his story arc. He was not motivated to crank it up into the greatest story that ever hit the big screen.*
"But here's one promise I'll make and Boss Jim Gettys knows I'll keep it," Kane says. "My first official act as governor of this state will be to appoint a special district attorney to arrange for the indictment, prosecution and conviction of Boss Jim W. Gettys."
As Wellesnet recounts, in turn, "Gettys destroys Kane's political aspirations by leaking a sex scandal involving Kane in the final stretch of the campaign."
Donald Trump is a real man. He is witnessing the approach of doom. Maybe he holds onto some shred of hope — he's a fighter, he likes to win — but that's all the more reason to make his story as interesting as possible, for the inevitable movie or movies — who knows how many movies there will be over the years? Donald Trump has 4 more weeks to write the story that will be enacted in those movies he sees coming.
Alec Baldwin, his "SNL" impersonator, is a great and serious dramatic actor. Surely, Baldwin will get a movie made. I look forward to the meta material. Baldwin will play 2 roles — oh, should I shut up and just write the screenplay? — Trump and Alec-Baldwin-as-Trump mocking Trump on "SNL." We see Baldwin/Trump seething and scheming as he watches Trump/Baldwin imitating him.
He's seething and scheming and then he laughs maniacally. Suddenly, he envisions the movie that will be made.
For decades they've been saying that "Citizen Kane" is the greatest movie of all time, but my movie will be bigger and greater. It will be huuuge. Because this really happened. Not just a stupid sex scandal that brought Kane down — a tawdry little thing — but a torrent of craziness like nobody ever saw. A sex scandal — that's Bill Clinton crap and Bill Clinton's crap is already part of my story. My story! It will all be in there. The aging actresses — they're always looking for parts — they'll be falling over each other trying to get the roles of Paula Jones and Juanita Broaddrick and Kathleen Willey and that other one, the 12-year-old that Hillary laughed at. And I've got all the young women too. So many roles! All the beauty queens — Alicia Machado — and the journalists who all ganged up against me. Megyn Kelly. Megyn Kelly will beg to play the part of herself in my movie. My movie! There's Nancy O'Dell and that actress in the purple dress — the one I took the Tic Tacs for — and Ivanka — Ivanka! — and Hillary herself. Hillary! Ha! Streep wants that. Streep will beg on her knees for that. Of course, Streep will do it. Streep or any one of those old actresses hot for a meaty role — a meaty roll with Bill. Heh. Who will play Bill? Who cares?! The question is me! Baldwin will do it. Of course! It's such a great role. What am I saying? The story isn't over yet. The climax hasn't even happened. This real-life story is still getting written — by me, the greatest character in the history of movies. The greatest movie scriptwriter in history. Writing in real life. Writing history moment-by-moment, tweet-by-tweet, impromptu splutterings on stages in front of millions. I can play out whatever crazy real-life destruction — ha ha ha ha ha look out, Paul Ryan! — any destruction-of the-GOP fantasies I want and it's all part of The True Story of Donald Trump. I can say anything, do anything — grab them by their pussy, shoot a guy on 5th Avenue — and it's actual true story, history-of-the-United-States-of-America, craziest thing that ever happened. It's big. It's huge. It's bigger than President of the United States. Fuck President of the United States. You can take that lousy job, Hillary. I am become bigger than you ever imagined becoming! President of the United States — it's just a childish conventional dream. You didn't build that. Go. Live in that ugly little house. It's not like you can actually push the nuclear button. Knock yourself out "fixing" Obamacare and war-and-peace-ing the Middle East for 4 years. Good luck with the America that's going to hate you. Like they already hate you. They're voting for you, but I assure you, Hillary, they hate you. And they're gonna love me — me, the greatest character in the greatest movies, the most movies and the best movies ever made. And fuck you too, Citizen Kane.
________________________
* Citizen Kane was based on a real person, William Randolph Hearst, but he didn't want to be a character in a movie, and he wasn't motivated to live his life, as defeat approached, to maximize the entertainment value of the story if it were presented in movie form. My point in this post is that the more it is apparent to Donald Trump — in these last 4 weeks — that he will lose the election, the more he may fixate on accomplishing something else, such as the destruction of the GOP as we know it or the ruination of the presidency that doesn't get to be his. Trump is an entertainer and he's been entertaining us all along and he has reason to think that he will be entertaining America forever as a character in our history. How big of a character can he be? He wants to be huge.
পোস্টগুলি
১৬২টি মন্তব্য:
Um, okay.
Great. And still, we're stuck with 2-3 more Kagans on the Supreme Court.
You want to impeach Mrs. Clinton in 2019? Get off your asses, and vote for Republicans in every House and Senate race now, and in 2018.
Chuck - They want revenge. Their orange god isn't being worshiped properly. GOP must pay!
And of course, Professor Althouse, the great big yuuuuge butt of the joke in your crazy-hilarious comedy is... that group of voters who got sucked into making Trump the nominee.
I only hope that your script makes them out to be the idiot-villains that they are.
If Hillary wins, she'll be starting out as the most unpopular president elected. GOP likely will hold at least one house, and can hold up any legislation she tries to pass. (If they hold the Senate, it'll be interesting to see how the Supreme Court nominations go--how long can they hold out?)
A smart conservative movement can build on that to shift enough public opinion to doom her presidency, make midterm gains, impeach if possible, and get a second try a the White House in 2020. Or, it could descend into infighting and chaos to let the Dems keep winning by default.
Grab them by their rosebud.
"Their orange god isn't being worshiped properly"
Omarossa did slip up and admit that "you will bow down before Trump". Pretty much says it all about his most devoted followers.
If these are who he picks as surrogates and spokesmen for his campaign, just wait and see what low lights he picks for his cabinet.
Citizen Kane not real? I was under the impression the story was based quite closely on the life of William Randolph Hearst.
The Republicans that withdrew their Trump endorsements are all open border and amnesty supporters. Save the list and never vote for those c-suckers again. Hillary is just like the demon in the Exorcist, except she 100% human and has no excuse. We all can play the stupid analogy game.
I think it's funny we're talking about Trump being imposed on the Republicans. Meanwhile, was Hillary really the best possible Democrat out there? Isn't it fishy how few other Democrats ran against a clearly flawed candidate? Hillary was foisted even more than Trump was foisted, but all we talk about is Trump. Curious that.
Pay no attention to that Clinton behind the curtain!
"Smart conservative movement". I'll take "Things we'll never see in our lifetimes for $200, Alex." Throw your establishment to the wolves, and rally around Rand. It's your only hope.
The butt of all the jokes, whatever they are, are most of us, whoever they vote for, or if they dont vote at all. And those who, in the next generations, wont have the chance to vote on their circumstances.
These are all laughs while everyone circles the drain.
A couple of decades from now some of those future residents of the sump, those few, probably, who can compare their parents glorious past to their own present, may wonder at the idiocies of this age.
I suggest you wait for the election to start your script.
This is not over,
There are of of conspiracy theories about the source of the tapes and the rush to try to get Trump to quit.
Rappers with far worse lyrics are invited to the White House.
April, Brando and chuck may now resume the three minutes of hate.
Yes of course Citizen Kane was transparently about Hearst.
I'm going to say this now: If Hillary wins she won't be impeached. It just won't happen. So just get it out of your head. The Dems have the FBI and the Justice Department locked down. The Dems have the media mostly in their pockets. She'll be able to pretty much do anything without fear of prosecution. The same goes for her various minions.
However, she will be a hugely unpopular president. She'll be starting her presidency with probably 40% of the population pretty much completely disliking and even hating her, and most of the rest will never fully trust her, and they won't like constantly having to to defend her. This will make it difficult for her to get much done. And given her general incompetence along with the state of the world today, we're going to be heading for some chaotic times. For these reasons, I strongly suspect we'll be looking at a single term presidency and a pretty awful legacy.
The sad thing of all is that Trump almost certainly wouldn't do anything different about immigration.
Remember Josephus.
Hillary is worse than Trump in almost every respect, so there's still a chance Trump can win and show how easily he's seduced by whatever tide comes in next.
Ideals are tools to be abused by narcissists.
But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Trump will put us in a great car at a really good price.
I'd like Hillary in a Driving Miss Bess flick.
"Citizen Kane not real? I was under the impression the story was based quite closely on the life of William Randolph Hearst."
Of course that is true, but the character Kane isn't conscious of making the story that will be a movie and the real person Hearst wasn't trying to be a movie at all.
My point is that Trump is now aware that his story is an epic, filmable drama that he controls and (as an entertainer and attention-seeker) wants to make great. Kane's story wasn't that nor was Hearst's.
Trump doesn't have a sex scandal.
Sex is a word that has meaning, I suggest you use it properly, even when hysterical thoughts are racing through your manic brain.
Trump is a scandal, because GOP. If he was not a politician, and were also attacking Rubio or Bush he would be heralded as a genius billionaire philanthropist with a beautiful family and mega-sterling reputation.
So let's be clear: Trump is a target of Althouse and the dominant mass establishment media (hat tip Mike Rosin) because he is the leader of the GOP.
If he were just rich and powerful Althouse would understand why he used locker room talk, namely important men in Trump's position on some level have to fulfill ego-satisfaction demands such that raping 13 year old's bums, raping subordinate employees, and getting caught with child porn are, perhaps now mind you, understandable and Hell, I'll editorialize admirable even potentially.
Think Alec in GGR: They are sitting there waiting to give you their pussy, are you man enough to take it?
"But perhaps an exception should be made for a great late night talk show host. The funnyman's mood and ego need boosting. Just as he must have an office full of people who can write jokes and comic routines — who must share a lot of not-that-businesslike camaraderie — he needs pretty ladies to keep his senses well-honed. It's part of the structure of a business that revolves around a performer. The funnyman needs his supply of sex, and the paying career positions on the staff can be used to create a pool of potential sexual partners who will keep the old man bolstered up.
Perhaps, I said. Perhaps. Please discuss. And take into account the other examples we've seen lately of great men to whom the rules arguably do not apply: Roman Polanski (movie director might be allowed to rape), Harvard students (elite collegians might be allowed to stalk), Richard Prince (important artist might be allowed to display child pornography), Brian David Mitchell (man of God might be allowed to rape). And not so recently: Bill Clinton (Presidents of the United States might be allowed to have sex with subordinate employees).
Posted by Ann Althouse at 8:46 AM 149 comments
Tags: ethics, Letterman, rape, Roman Polanski, sexual harassment"
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2009/10/is-it-really-so-terrible-that-david.html
Please view the link to see what the author intended including links and punctuation-wise.
OK, Kane is Trump like in interesting ways. So we will either get one Kane or the other Kaine were the first woman President to die in office seizures before her Parkinsons Meds can be re-balanced. Then we could have a Jesuit Pope and a Jesuit President.
That duo should make Paul Ryan feel happy. Not so much normal Americans. Let's hope the Universal World Church has an Army that protects our private property rather than declares it confiscated for the poor.
Popularity doesnt matter because democracy doesnt matter.
You havent got a democracy at all. None of the powers of the present government are limited by the public will in any significant way.
Even the President hasnt the power to effectively limit TPTB.
Even having a president opposed to TPTB is no cure, or a big impediment.
Michael K; there could never have been any realistic hope of getting Trump to quit. I had received my Michigan absentee ballot before that talk even started. Early voting had begun.
I liked the discussion, however, for a different reason. Imagine if, instead of another Trump scandal, the crisis had been a disabling illness for Mrs. Clinton. And somehow, Dems wanted a replacement candidate.
We have real issues, in the era of earlier and earlier voting. "Early voting" is one of those core conservative Republican issues that we will be litigating for many years to come.
What "early voting" means in parts of North Carolina and Ohio, is buses lined up at African-American churches after Sunday services and transporting to polling places groups of voters who will vote about 98% for Democrats.
Meanwhile, we are watching the approaching doom of a Leviathan that will suffocate our very existence.
But let us ignore that, Althouse. After all, you are older and likely will not be roused to your own defense until it is too late.
"We see Baldwin/Trump seething and scheming as he watches Trump/Baldwin imitating him."
With all due respect Professor, I would let Charlie Kaufman write that screenplay.
So let's be clear: Trump is a target of Althouse and the dominant mass establishment media (hat tip Mike Rosin) because he is the leader of the GOP.
Here you go, Althouse! The coming "Althouse-is-a-paid-shill-for-Hillary" attacks. Join the club. You are now a stealth operative of the Democratic Party. As a falsely accused stealth operative of the Democratic Party myself, I can tell you that the benefits suck. You should keep your day job. Get those papers back, quick, from UWM.
"Rappers with far worse lyrics are invited to the White House."
You think being invited to the White House is the same as being elected to the White House.
Trump has lost because women won't vote for him. He makes light of sexual assault, which is a sacred thing.
Women don't mind being crazy on this point. In fact it gets eyeballs for TV to sell, in addition to presidents.
Trump of course is selling it too now, with the Hillary tramps. Women require it.
The given on both sides is that womena can't think. Emotions rip them from logic. You can't deal with them like men.
The path to thread is pander to women and stay within what men are willing to put up with in deferring to women. It's a bitches and gentlemen thing.
Everything that is passing as an "issue" in this election is simply rhetorical silliness. Even the "serious" ones arent discussed seriously, or they are trivia.
Everything in the public view is a symptom, not a cause, of this civilizational disease.
Trump is Tom Reagan in the great Miller's Crossing. He knows all the angles. Plays both sides. Does the right thing like an oak stands tall.
Gabe Byrnes drinking was added to provide cover to the Coen's in case the horrible, bigoted Leftists in the bizz get wise.
Brando said...
"Their orange god isn't being worshiped properly"
Omarossa did slip up and admit that "you will bow down before Trump". Pretty much says it all about his most devoted followers.
If these are who he picks as surrogates and spokesmen for his campaign, just wait and see what low lights he picks for his cabinet."
He picked Pence, a serious man to be his VP. Who did Hillary pick? A nutjob and moron. I would be vastly more afraid of a Hillary cabinet than that of a Trump cabinet.
Will there be sexual assault in the movie? That would make it interesting to women.
Is there a flick made of Kleist's Marquise of O, by the way.
Goddam, I'd pay to see that movie. In IMAX.
Lautreamont's Maldoror is a book about writing the book.
Narrative-disrupting paradox is the chief, and amusing, effect.
I am not convinced that there IS a set of reasonably competent and uncompromised people to pick for a cabinet that are both plausible and available to serve. No matter what party holds the Presidency.
The degree of corruption is that bad.
Trump is like Welles not Kane.
Good point.
"Little Orson Annie" went to L.A. from New York as a big shot hot dog 24 year old, ready to show the movie folks how it's done.
Having traveled abroad and directed plays at 12/13 years old, plus a 1936 all black production of Macbeth, Welles was the ultimate cock and the old shitheels hated him. The old entrenched interests wanted him destroyed.
He won. He hired the best talent and pushed them. Watched Stagecoach a shit ton too.
Got super fat after the decades of success, but Trump starting official politics so late in life means we don't have to fear that.
"We...will produce history as others produce plays. I, the Wrath of God, will marry my own daughter and with her I will found the purest dynasty the world has ever seen. Together, we shall rule this entire continent. We shall endure. I am the Wrath of God! Who else is with me?"
(The end of Herzog's Aguirre, the Wrath of God. The camera circles around and around, showing us Aguirre alone with his dead companions on a raft full of monkeys. Darkness closes.)
Word is Mank based Kane on Welles using Hearst as a foul.
"Yes of course Citizen Kane was transparently about Hearst."
The subtext was Welles was playing Welles though.
It could be that this campaign is so depressing, that all the movies made about it will fail at the box office.
With Hillary in charge, no one will have any extra money for entertainment anyway.
cubanbob said...
...
He picked Pence, a serious man to be his VP. Who did Hillary pick? A nutjob and moron. I would be vastly more afraid of a Hillary cabinet than that of a Trump cabinet.
Let's be clear; there is one nutjob and moron in this race. It is Trump.
Hillary is a skilled lawyer, clever, and profoundly evil.
Mike Pence is a less-skilled lawyer, a bit dim, a backbencher, but a thoroughly decent man.
Tim Kaine might be the best lawyer of the bunch, and is the spiritual heir to the most dangerous Democrat in Congress, Dick Durbin. Hillary is profoundly evil. Kaine and Durbin are pure evil.
Any great story ends in triumph. If Trump is planning his yuge biopic, you'd better believe he knows he needs to win.
Four weeks is a long time in this election. The reason he has crashed and burned and risen again and crashed and burned and risen again and again is because the support for anybody is soft. Those people fleeing Trump for Hillary at the drop of a gauche have plenty of time to flee Hillary for Trump.
And may be even enough time to flee back to Hillary yet again.
"The sad thing of all is that Trump almost certainly wouldn't do anything different about immigration."
He already has. Why deny even this?
You can't honestly say Cruz or any other GOP candidate would bring on stage the family members of those killed by illegals. We have decades of history to search through to find that happening, and it didn't until Trump, because Trump doesn't care if the media attacks him for it.
How did Trump fool us if he is no different? If he is different, doesn't that negate your sentence quoted above?
I consider adopting Sessions plan different from the GOP nominees Trump defeated, and simple yet still too difficult for most politicians to consider.
Michael K; there could never have been any realistic hope of getting Trump to quit.
We finally agree on something. Why did they do it ? Why the hysteria ?
You think being invited to the White House is the same as being elected to the White House.
No, I think the hysteria was contrived and Obama celebrates much worse. Do you even look at the album covers ?
This was a planned hit. The question is by who ?
Looking at this post and its comments and then looking at Drudge today one can conclude that this is an epic election cycle.
Clearly, both candidates must believe this election is winnable. The new twist is that Trump is a Republican who is unafraid of the media and is more than willing to fight to win.
With the last dregs of conservatism on the line, John McCain, Paul Ryan, Lindsey Graham and Jeb Bush would prefer a polite defeat over a hard fought victory. Their lack of conviction and principle is evident.
I'd prefer to go down fighting...
A light bulb went on in Althouse's head about Trump.
But even I don't think he's quite that crazy. He cares above all about the Trump brand. He always wanted to use the election to promote that brand. (Even in the debate he plugged his hotel.) So he won't just create story for the HBO movie. He will try to salvAge his brand.
You have to consider the collateral damage when you go down fighting.
Consider the case of General Odierno, who it turns out is the recipient of payoffs from a political-front consulting firm, one of a huge number of these things.
If they consider it worth their while to pay off a retired service chief, one with, otherwise, a decent reputation apparently, it is no surprise they have done the same, through similar cutouts, for Comey of the FBI, and no doubt should anybody care to investigate, Comey's direct reports.
The only prudent conclusion is there isnt likely to be anyone at all who isnt bought and a creature of Leviathan.
AprilApple said...
It could be that this campaign is so depressing, that all the movies made about it will fail at the box office.
It will fail at the box office because Hollywood writers can't write for crap when the topic is political.
There are guys who are transparently doing everything seeing themselves as already promoted to management. It colors every memo and meeting.
Other guys mock them, but eventually they do in fact wind up in management.
Here's a scene for a Trump movie.
Trump's campaign is in full swing. He is in his opulent office talking enthusiastically about himself on his phone to we don't know who and playing a Whack-A Mole game.
Various advisors and handlers keep coming in with important things for him to do; prepare for an upcoming press event, study policy positions with experts who have come to tutor him, meet with important would-be supporters and donors.
But each time Trump starts to turn away from his game another mole pops up and he can't resist taking a whack at it.
buwaya puti:
I'm sorry, I think you've made this point before, so I may be overlooking a source. But where are you getting this information on General Odierno?
Chuck said...Great. And still, we're stuck with 2-3 more Kagans on the Supreme Court.
Ha! 3 more Kagans is the best-case scenario, Chuck. It will likely be much, much worse.
Iconochasm said...Throw your establishment to the wolves, and rally around Rand. It's your only hope.
Naah. Rand et al. are too libertarian and good folks like Professor Althouse can't support anything so cruel, so cold, do downright heartless as that. Rand isn't proposing to give away vast sums to women, to minorities, and for babies, so he must be filled with hate. As we've learned Love Trumps Hate, so Rand's right out.
Surely the character Kane had heard Shakespeare's "all the world's a stage" so I do not consider it far fetched to extrapolate Kane imagining his life will be told in some or another form as other great men's lives (or coulda-been great men had they not been born very rich) had been and have been since and are now.
This was a guy saying "anymore questions c'mon now young fella in my day we were quicker than that" and says "you buy a bag of peanuts in this town and they right a song about you."
http://youtu.be/_zKcddU8HKk
To add, again, that anyone listening to the US mass media is listening to a propaganda organ, no different from what the Soviet Union ran, in a rather more sophisticated way during the Cold War.
You all arent dealing with ordinary US politics, besides all the stylistic bizarreness, which are just symptoms of far more substantial underlying conditions.
"When your own base tells you they hate you worse than they do other party, you need to listen."
Newt Gingrich
These people still do not want to listen.
I'm so glad to hear Chuck and April lecturing me, the trump supporter, that I need to vote for down ballot Republicans.
Because ive been hearing all election of the principled reasons why Republicans just can't bring themselves to vote for trump.
But I'm supposed to vote for the down half Republicans.
Reap what you sow.
"He already has"
He has? He says he will. But I'm not aware he has power to change national policy quite yet.
You're mistaking rhetoric for action. He may indeed act. But I also know that Schwarzeneggar was going to reform state government, etc. and so on. Gave one big push. Got pushed back. Gave up the fight. He was a talker and a self-promoter
Meanwhile, Walker wasn't a talker but was a steady pusher in making change and resisting attacks, and didn't have near enough of a past to make something out of.
People picked the showman to run for President. Maybe he's different than Arnold. But he still certainly hasn't done anything yet, except in the minds of his most fervent supporters who have that tingly feeling inside and know it's something real.
Most likely Trump is like Obama, a saving hope representing people who felt ignored and when he gets power he'll ignore those same people.
But I might be wrong. I hope I am. We'll see. If Trump wins. If not, then the idealism can continue unabated and maybe the influence will help future candidates with better backgrounds listen to the outcry.
Movie Plot 1:
The Russian hacking narrative is pushed by Hillary, a compliant media, and the Federal Gov't in preparation for a populist Trump victory on election day that they knew was coming. Like Brexit, the everyday people defy the elite, the media, the polls, and the Globalists. The Russian hacking narrative is used to question the results of the election and delay the transfer of Executive power. America's biggest power struggle ensues; and 2016 becomes America's last free election.
Movie Plot 2:
Trump has exposed the true corrupt nature of our Federal Gov't and its elected officials. No one can say they don't see it anymore. Hillary wins, and her Presidency is already crippled by her health and and more corruption that will be forthcoming.
Putin, Assad, and Iran are just waiting. Hillary and our elites decide it a good idea to engage Russia to enforce a Syrian no fly zone; everyone is fucked. America punches another tar baby, and wishes that being grabbed by the pussy was its biggest problem.
Hillary's health problems are real, and the unprepared, uninspiring Tim Kaine becomes President. He is the James Taggert of the story. Working with Pope Francis he forces all churches to swear loyalty to the state, and signs over large pieces of American sovereignty to the UN continuing down Obama's prepared path.
"He wants to be huge." He will be. A huge loser.
Silver lining: it will keep other clown billionaires from trying the same stunt for a while.
Downside, apart from Hill as Prez and entrenching prog power: no easy way to lead the Trumpites back to sanity. Because the GOPe! Because we was stabbed in the back! Because Romney was worse! Because Ryan --. Anyway, it's not clear who can clean up the mess, and how. But at least the wreckage will be huge.
How can Donald Trump be Charles Foster Kane, it's Hillary Clinton the controls the media.
The arc of Welles life more closely mirrored Kane than did that of Hearst. Hearst was loved by both his wife and his mistress. He didn't die alone, and his life was marked more with success than failure.......I think Hearst was the Murdoch of his day. He was profoundly anti- communist. I remember reading an account by one of the early emigres to the Soviet Union. This emigre said that he read the Nation and was not mislead by all those lies in the Hearst papers. He was unpleasantly surprised to learn that Hearst was right and the Nation was wrong.
"Silver lining: it will keep other clown billionaires from trying the same stunt for a while."
Yuppers. Hope so anyway. Some level of character counts. Just enough to at least not make it look like a clown show.
Hoodlum;
I don't know how a President Hillary could possibly get more than 2-3 picks on SCOTUS.
First, a Republican Senate will make all of it as hard as possible.
Second, how on earth could there be more than 3? She gets the Scalia seat (1), and the RBG replacement (2), and later on a new Breyer (and that is even a question, because nobody likes their job there more than Breyer). That's a possible 3.
If Kennedy were to die, that might make it 4. But for all of his treachery, I don't think Kennedy would allow one president to pick 4 justices. And those of us who have had passing thoughts about a Kennedy assassination (I am personally opposed to SCOTUS assassinations, for the record) as a result of Obergefell, Windsor and Lawrence would think twice if Hillary was doing the nominating of his replacement.
"Hanging on until after Hillary" will be Kennedy's make-up call for the Republican Party.
My bet is on 2.
And yet; if you think that "much worse" means Hillaryites installing about 200 more federal district and circuit judges, then you are very sadly correct. Much worse is right.
Look up Teneo, an M&A consulting firm run by Doug Band, co founder of the Clinton Global Initiative and Clinton Foundation. Odierno is listed as an "adviser" on the Wiki. Along with, for instance, Pitt, formerly a Republican appointee to the SEC.
"Republican" is a meaningless distinction, it seems.
Lots and lots of dots. There are an awful lot of Teneos.
readering said...
A light bulb went on in Althouse's head about Trump.
But even I don't think he's quite that crazy. He cares above all about the Trump brand. He always wanted to use the election to promote that brand. (Even in the debate he plugged his hotel.) So he won't just create story for the HBO movie. He will try to salvAge his brand."
Whatever else he may be and whatever else you think Trump is, moronic businessman isn't it. The last thing in the world for Trump to have done to further his business prospects is run for president. Worst still for him financially is to win the office. No successful real-estate developer would intentionally alienate half of his prospective buyers nor would a hotelier or country club developer. He isn't a Clinton whose only financial interest is selling government influence.
Christiane Amanpour seriously asked the Russian foreign Minister about Trump's 2005 pussy tapes, and Russia's Pussy Riot (the feminist punk rock band).
His reply, "There are so many pussies around the presidential campaign on both sides that I prefer not to comment on this.
If you think you're stressed now, just wait.
eric said...
I'm so glad to hear Chuck and April lecturing me, the trump supporter, that I need to vote for down ballot Republicans.
Because ive been hearing all election of the principled reasons why Republicans just can't bring themselves to vote for trump.
But I'm supposed to vote for the down half Republicans.
Reap what you sow.
eric, I am voting a straight Republican ticket. And so should you, if you hate Mrs. Clinton as much as I do.
The difference between you and I, it seems, is that I saw clearly the coming Trump dumpster fire before you did.
Anyway, I am tired of arguing with the Trumpkins. Going forward, it won't be argument; it will simply be berating. A beatdown.
I don't remember Romney inspiring this much verbiage. Trump is interesting to write about. His sex life is salacious and fun to speculate on. Hillary is depressing. Who even wants to speculate on her sex life?
You havent a choice. Its whackjob billionaires or the system. No uncompromised person is likely to make a successful run, other than a billionaire.
Only a billionaire can be free man these days.
And sometimes not even them.
That, or a pauper. The poor are free, though unlikely to be elected.
Althouse likes to lead by example.
Excellent avoidance of line breaks.
Paddy O said...The sad thing of all is that Trump almost certainly wouldn't do anything different about immigration.
I think you have to distinguish between "he wouldn't get anything different done one immigration" and "he wouldn't even try anything different on immigration." The former is probably correct, but the later is almost certainly incorrect. Just by bringing the issue up at all and daring to point out that our current immigration scheme (which is contrary to the law & to the wishes of huge portions of our current citizens) has real, human costs Trump has clearly taken a different path.
I really hope that people assign the proper amount of blame for this whole fiasco (by which I mean Hillary getting elected & our nation committing to the destruction of America as traditionally understood) to Marco Rubio. If Rubio had not been a part of the Gang of 8 amnesty push--if he had confined himself to platitudes in support of immigration reform, etc--he'd be the next President. Who doubts it? He should have easily beaten Trump even with Jeb's massive spending on anti-Rubio ads; Trump takes out Jeb, Rubio takes out Trump, and a more-or-less cohesive GOP takes out Hillary. It wouldn't be a blow out, but Rubio would probably win a narrow national victory. One side effect would have been to remove the Clintons from positions of power w/in the government forever. The GOP loses some hardline anti-immigration Trump-type people but stays together. Once President Rubio would have been free to trade comprehensive immigration reform for some rightwing wishlist item (Supreme Court nominee, etc).
But, no. Being on a team w/Chuck Schumer seemed like a better idea to Rubio. He sunk himself, and he allowed an amateur like Trump to sink the party.
There's plenty of blame to go around and I hope Rubio gets his fair share.
Last night I watched a rerun of the old Frazier TV show. Frazier commits to staging a golden-age-of-radio style performance of a clichéd murder mystery using his co-workers as the actors. The live performance falls apart and becomes farce because of Frazier's obsessive perfectionism and micro-managing, which pisses off everyone, royally.
I didn't enjoy it.
There was an episode of Cheers where Rebecca is in charge of catering the wedding of Woody and Kelly (using the Cheers gang as helpers) and it all breaks down to farce and I thought that episode not only hilarious but brilliant as well.
Anyway, there's a song-and-dance number in Citizen Kane that strikes me as not farce but simply bizarre. They parodied it on The Simpsons with Mr. Smithers singing to Mr. Burns.
Rubio was too stupid, or corrupt, to resist the blandishments of Schumer, and no doubt the implied payoff to follow. That is, from the persons offering to finance his campaigns, and his retirement.
Chuck said...I don't know how a President Hillary could possibly get more than 2-3 picks on SCOTUS.
Oh, I think she'll get 3, I just don't think they'll be as "good" as Kagan. I understand Barack Obama has a Harvard law degree...
And yet; if you think that "much worse" means Hillaryites installing about 200 more federal district and circuit judges, then you are very sadly correct. Much worse is right.
Yep, that's a big and underappreciated part of it, too. Obama's appointed, what, 325 or so Federal judges? Of the 13 Court of Appeals circuits 9 have majorities appointed by Dems. There are something like 175 Fed. Appeals judges and Obama himself has appointed more than 55. So President Hillary will almost certainly get a chance to appoint 20 or so Fed. Appeals judges and flip those last 4 circuits to majority Dem-appointed.
But yeah, smart conservatives like Jonah Goldberg & company insist "we can survive President Clinton." No reason to worry, it's just a few years in the wilderness. Yeah.
Nobody in the general election cares AT ALL about insider baseball politics or that Rubio made one screw up.
Compared to Trumps's past support of all things Clinton - no one in the real world cares at all about that gang of 8 crap.
Rubio is young and articulate and the only thing the DNC-MSM had on him was that he once purchased a boat. Look at who the DNC-MSM were most afraid of - it was NOT Trump.
"Alec Baldwin, his "SNL" impersonator, is a great and serious dramatic actor..."
He is? I did not know that.
A taste of lectures from delusional Trump cultists:
You must support Trump! (I already do - I'm voting for him) Not good enough! You must worship Trump with blind faith and vow to kill the GOPe! You must vote for democrats as a sign of solidarity with the Trump campaign!
Wow - Trump cultists have jumped the event horizon.
Besides, if you don't actually win - the "big wall" means nothing.
Chuck Althouse has been inspirational in her lack of contempt for Trump, that doesn't mean she is always correct.
Your contempt is above you.
If my last name were Saying I would have a son and name him Noam.
Watch Noam Shreiber in RKO 281 if you wanna get real real.
"Only words" is used the opposite of DFW's lament about words and what they can, and could, do.
"There's plenty of blame to go around and I hope Rubio gets his fair share."
I tend to agree. Rubio killed his chances wit the Gang of 8. I suspect it was a rookie mistake like McCain with the Keating 5.
He is young enough to get beyond it but he needs good advice.
If Trump wins, by no means impossible, Pence will be in line and he knows it. Maybe then Rubio.
I think Ryan poisoned the well with this hysteria about a "pussy" comment.
Whether it's abortion rites in a "final solution"; "=" in selective exclusion; class diversity in racism and sexism; female chauvinism to attack women, men, and babies, too; social justice adventurism for mass abortion and regime change; trial by sodomy and abortion; emigration reform in refugee crises and mass exodus; trickle-up poverty; etc., the State-established Church with a liberal ideology and Pro-Choice quasi-religion is progressive and unaccountable.
Abortionists to the Left. Progressive warriors to the "Right". Social liberals (e.g. libertines) in the Middle. It's a Pro-Choice, Pro-Choice, Pro-Choice, Pro-Choice world.
"Paddy O said...The sad thing of all is that Trump almost certainly wouldn't do anything different about immigration."
100% correct. Trump is tapping into anger over immigration, but when you get down to the substance he is promising more of the same.
And if you think his "wall" (virtual wall or otherwise) is going to stop any more people than our existing barriers do, then I have a wall to sell you.
I think what may be being discounted in all this peculiar movie talk is the fact that Trump has always been the symptom, never the cause of his presidential candidacy.
What happens to Trump afterward should he lose the election will only be of interest to Mary Hart and similar Entertainment Tonight types, but, having been given hope and been shown what can be done, the people who defeated Trump's primary candidates won't just go gently into that good post-election night.
Whether or not and until they can find a successor candidate or candidates, they'll be primarying everyone who stands in their way. Paul Ryan, for example, already politically dead without knowing it, will never get their votes, nor will anyone similarly wind driven.
Henceforth, the rump GOP will only be a party of precious, conservative mandarins, while the Trump folks will be forming political alliances of convenience with everyone from the Alt-Right to the Johnson-embarrassed Libertarians all the way to the more pragmatic of the Bernie Bros.
I don't doubt that Trump himself knows more than anyone else just how fleeting individual glory is and would probably laugh out loud at this post were he ever to encounter it.
"Henceforth, the rump GOP will only be a party of precious, conservative mandarins, while the Trump folks will be forming political alliances of convenience with everyone from the Alt-Right to the Johnson-embarrassed Libertarians all the way to the more pragmatic of the Bernie Bros."
A party split may be the end result of this. In the old days, the interventionists, libertarians and religious right all were okay enough with each of the others (and at least didn't usually find their pet causes at odds with one another) that they could work together. That may not be the case for people with fundamentally different economic, social and foreign affairs philosophies.
Maybe it's for the best.
Trump has shown the GOP they are unable to lie lie lie about small government b.s. or building the "damned" wall as McCain said or getting the people (Saudi's) who bombed New York on 9/11 or that "free trade" means giving Iran the means to build a nuke and kill big chunks of us. Etc...
Trump has already affected the GOP and the Democrats who will vote for him.
Buckley never held office yet his rhetoric changed the GOP, I presume you agree.
I won't besmirch ya if you need to look up John Bircher.*
*too early for me to rhyme with Bircher but I fit an "irch" in there for your reading pleasure.
Henceforth, the rump GOP will only be a party of precious, conservative mandarins, while the Trump folks will be forming political alliances of convenience with everyone from the Alt-Right to the Johnson-embarrassed Libertarians all the way to the more pragmatic of the Bernie Bros.
...with no congressional caucus, no national organization, no fundraising apparatus, no state legislative "farm team", and with the historic baggage of the Trump Election Disaster of 2016.
Emigration reform begins with construction of a "wall" that identifies and demarcates the causes and limits of refugee crises, mass exodus, etc. Whether it is progressive wars (e.g. social justice adventurism, opportunistic regime changes), trickle-up poverty (e.g. redistributive change, health penalty taxes), inequitable trade/free trade, green blight (e.g. delegated, hidden environmental disruption/corruption), class diversity or institutional discrimination, eminent domain through regulation and coercion, or democratic/social leverage through class division, the underlying causes of emigration reform will only be addressed through a direct confrontation of the issues.
Chuck said... [hush][hide comment]
And of course, Professor Althouse, the great big yuuuuge butt of the joke in your crazy-hilarious comedy is... that group of voters who got sucked into making Trump the nominee.
I only hope that your script makes them out to be the idiot-villains that they are.
Deplorables, right?
If a D.A. declaims "sorry we done ain't by lower gee god got us any of the damn money for the damn prosecutions of undocumented Americans, you simpleton cheapies, so they all walk, and we encourage them to walk all over you and send you a bill" does that rhetoric have an effect?
If the president says it?
"We begin bombing in five minutes" sure got some panties wadded up.
Building the brand.
"..with no congressional caucus, no national organization, no fundraising apparatus, no state legislative "farm team", and with the historic baggage of the Trump Election Disaster of 2016."
The state farm teams have grown with Republican presidential defeats, it's the Democrats with a shabby and old bench.
Realclear politics,
"The GOP now controls 68 out of 98 partisan state legislative chambers -- the highest number in the history of the party. Republicans currently hold the governorship and both houses of the legislature in 23 states, while Democrats have that level of control in only seven."
All President Trump has to do is start resending Obama's EOs on immigration enforcement and we're halfway there to fulfilling his promises. That and demand that the laws be enforced.
The deplorables will be played by the extras from Les Miserables....oh wait wrong movie.
Or is it? Maybe our esteemed hostess picked the wrong movie.
Full Moon:
Mrs. Clinton accused you "deplorables" of being racist, homophobic, Islamophobic and Xenophobic. We conservatives are used to those allegations. We would have liked to have beaten her. And beaten her badly. With a good, winning candidate.
The National Review, the Weekly Standard and Brent Bozell's Media Research Center have been on the "biased media" beat and backing up conservatives since back when Donald Trump was a Democrat making donations to Jimmy Carter in his campaign against Ronald Reagan. And they all knew better, than to throw in with Trump.
"...with no congressional caucus, no national organization, no fundraising apparatus, no state legislative "farm team", and with the historic baggage of the Trump Election Disaster of 2016."
A party can build from the ashes of defeat--and the GOP currently has a lot of strength in the states. A split may weaken it in the short term, but in the long run each part of it might be better off.
One group that may be damaged in the long term is the "establishment" types who disdain Trump, but found themselves endorsing him, then retracting endorsements, then retracting the retractions. You could stand on principle opposing him (because of his lack of qualifications or his anti-conservative policies and outlook), you could stand on principle backing him (because you believe he will somehow be a good thing for conservative goals) but the fence straddling and flip flopping is nakedly opportunistic and wins you with neither side. It makes them look weak and shameless at the same time.
If something good comes from all this, it may be to wash out a lot of these people and clear the boards.
It doesnt matter about farm teams or fundraising or candidates or congressmen or senators. Or really, for that matter, governors or legislatures. Or parties. That whole structure is obsolete, a collapsing building on an abandoned lot.
All that matters are things like Teneo (see above), or actually their owners. And their instruments, such as the EPA and SEC and the Supreme Court.
Then the lords of the Philistines gathered them together for to offer a great sacrifice unto Dagon their god, and to rejoice: for they said, Our god hath delivered Samson our enemy into our hand. And when the people saw him, they praised their god: for they said, Our god hath delivered into our hands our enemy, and the destroyer of our country, which slew many of us.
And it came to pass, when their hearts were merry, that they said, Call for Samson, that he may make us sport.
. . . .
And Samson called unto the LORD, and said, O Lord GOD, remember me, I pray thee, and strengthen me, I pray thee, only this once, O God, that I may be at once avenged of the Philistines for my two eyes. And Samson took hold of the two middle pillars upon which the house stood, and on which it was borne up, of the one with his right hand, and of the other with his left. And Samson said, Let me die with the Philistines. And he bowed himself with all his might; and the house fell upon the lords, and upon all the people that were therein.
"All President Trump has to do is start resending Obama's EOs on immigration enforcement and we're halfway there to fulfilling his promises. That and demand that the laws be enforced."
Didn't Trump already say that some people would have to be exceptions to deportation, which is essentially Obama's current policy? I know Trump went back on that later, but why would you trust anything from him at this point?
What I forsee (if Trump won) is him making a few high profile deportations, some limited de facto amnesty, put up a little more fencing (and calling it his "wall") and then claiming he fixed the problem. It would be very much in line with his character.
“…GOP strategists are very concerned that, should Trump continue to blast the Republican Party, his base could reject outright the established GOP candidates who abandoned him. GOP insiders fear voters will punish the party, with anti-Trump Republicans choosing to stay home while Trump’s base casts ballots for Trump alone and against incumbent GOP members. Even a few percentage points could mean loss of control over Congress. The GOP has not figured out a way to reign Trump in as he implodes not only his own chances but the party’s in general. The party’s main donors have little control over Trump, for example, because he relies largely on small donors and his own wealth to continue…”
“…With polls now showing Trump behind in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, and national polls giving her between a 5 and 11 point lead, many GOP candidates are effectively conceding the race for the White House and now want to focus on stemming the tide. Whether the tactic will succeed will depend ironically on how much further damage Trump can do to his own prospects.”
As Trump Turns On GOP
"It doesnt matter about farm teams or fundraising or candidates or congressmen or senators. Or really, for that matter, governors or legislatures. Or parties. That whole structure is obsolete, a collapsing building on an abandoned lot."
I doubt that--those state governments have a lot more influence on our daily lives that the feds in many respects. It's not enough just to have a president you like.
...with no congressional caucus, no national organization, no fundraising apparatus, no state legislative "farm team", and with the historic baggage of the Trump Election Disaster of 2016.
I have no doubt Jeb, for one, finds this thought immensely consoling. How much, again, of other people's time, organization and treasure did he burn through when all was said and done? I forget, because his presence itself in the 2016 campaign was but a fleeting dream.
Political realities have simply changed, and they're unlikely to change back if and when Donald Trump goes back to developing real estate.
"If something good comes from all this, it may be to wash out a lot of these people and clear the boards."
Yes but many are worried more that he will win. Huckabee said this the other day and I agree.
Didn't Trump already say that some people would have to be exceptions to deportation, which is essentially Obama's current policy?
Obama's current policy is to deport no one. Plus admit millions of Muslims with no vetting, which Hillary has admitted is impossible. The Germans are admitting Muslims with fake passports and they admit it.
Althouse can write the screenplay for "Citizen Trump" and "Sunset Blouvard" which will be renamed "Pennsylvania Avenue."
Who plays Hillary / Gloria .Swanson? Will Idina Menzil sing?
I doubt that--those state governments have a lot more influence on our daily lives that the feds in many respects. It's not enough just to have a president you like.
Absolutely true. Where, then, would a post-Trump Trump polity be most likely to focus their efforts while awaiting a presidential candidate?
Keep in mind also that Trump, illiquid as most of his assets might be, is still a billionaire with less lifetime ahead of him, more money than he needs, and a tendency not to smile upon those he feels have wronged him. Dropping spare change into primary races across the landscape is almost certainly in his post-2016 playbook should he lose.
Trump as president would pose global danger - U.N. rights chief
To who? The Globalist and kleptocrats that make up the UN.
"Obama's current policy is to deport no one. Plus admit millions of Muslims with no vetting, which Hillary has admitted is impossible. The Germans are admitting Muslims with fake passports and they admit it."
Oh come on--"no one"? No one has been deported this year, or going back to 2009? He may not be deporting as many as you like (or I like) but people are getting deported all the time. Or do you think the agencies are deporting in opposition to his policy?
Maybe you think Trump would do better on this--my problem is I trust him not a bit on this issue (or many other issues) and don't think our immigration situation is going to change in any substantive way. But maybe if our economy takes enough of a nosedive, our out-migration will be enough to counteract it. So there's that.
"To who? The Globalist and kleptocrats that make up the UN."
And all the minor kleptocracies who attend global warming summits looking for spare change.
"Absolutely true. Where, then, would a post-Trump Trump polity be most likely to focus their efforts while awaiting a presidential candidate?"
If I were starting a movement, that's where I'd begin my focus--a celebrity (say a Ross Perot or a Trump) can make a splash running for president, but for lasting effects on policy you want to aim for the lower cost state and local races where money will go farther and you can get people in there with track records and experience to climb the ladder. That ground work also makes a difference in turnout.
Perot's "Reform" party never really did that, which is why we don't hear about it anymore. The Tea Party may have had a shot, but they became an unofficial subsidiary of the GOP.
"I know Trump went back on that later, but why would you trust anything from him at this point?"
Why would you trust Hillary, who dreams of "open borders from Brazil to Alaska"? A western hemisphere EU?
Who tells the biggest lies, who corrupts everything they touch, who has a private opinion and a public opinion?
He may not be deporting as many as you like (or I like) but people are getting deported all the time. Or do you think the agencies are deporting in opposition to his policy?
It depends on who you read,
The Hill is pretty neutral.
The number of undocumented immigrants deported by President Obama is falling and could hit a 10-year low in 2016 just as the issue heats up in this year’s presidential race.
Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) figures from June suggest 230,000 people could be removed or returned from the country by the end of the fiscal year next month, slightly fewer than the 235,413 deported in 2015. That was the lowest number since 2006.
While the total does not include people caught attempting to illegally cross borders, it still highlights a change in enforcement patterns under Obama.
My understanding is that once they are past the border zone, they are home free. Hence "Sanctuary Cities."
“[The Department of Homeland Security] has placed more of a priority on border removals and has tried to scale back on the interior,” said Faye Hipsman, a policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.
There was an increase when he was trying to sell "Immigration reform" but that went away.
You may think Trump is lying about all this but I don;t and I think he wants to be seen as successful.
I'm curious if anybody knows if Nakoula Basseley Nakoula was ever released from prison?
Since it is so obscene to THREATEN investigation over a criminal matter, I wonder where the woman who led the move to get him sent to prison for basically nothing has any regrets. Or what his views are on her stand.
"...don't miss the great Alec Baldwin doing his Donald Trump impersonation one more time..."
"Alec Baldwin, his "SNL" impersonator, is a great and serious dramatic actor..."
She says... Prof Althouse being the president of the Alec Baldwin International Fan Club.
"Why would you trust Hillary, who dreams of "open borders from Brazil to Alaska"? A western hemisphere EU?"
Oh, I don't trust Hillary on this or any other issue. She's a non-starter.
Looking at the latest LATimes poll, I have to conclude that Trump will lose. Indeed, I now think the Republicans are going to lose both the Senate and the House. His only hope is a far bigger turnout of his supporters than those of Clinton, but that differential has be on the order of 10% or more- I think it unlikely.
Yancey Ward:
Even the Left's ranking expert on GOP gerrymandering (David Daley at Salon) knows that Republicans will not lose the House.
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/12/the-real-new-york-times-scandal-ignoring-why-democrats-cant-win-the-house/
No thanks to Trump. We have effectively redrawn enough districts that we can't lose.
So do you want to bet on Democrats retaking the House? Please say yes.
The Tea Party was constantly ridiculed by the media, like Palin, don't blame the Republicans. One could argue that Palin as a choice for VP was the Republicans embracing the TP. The treatment of the Tea Party by the press, press's subversion of Obama Administration's scandals and being targeted by the IRS are just some of the reasons we have Trump. Then there is the cowardly Republicans.
Perot shot himself in the foot when he dropped out, then dropped back in the race. I know a lot of people who voted for him, to a person they regret it.
Perot, Tea Party, Trump, eight years of Hillary ? Will that be the tipping point? AMMO? Riots? It will be interesting in my old age to see the looks on rioting illegal immigrates' waving Palestinian and Mexican flags faces, when confronted by an armed citizen middle class marching on their occupiers.
That was a very entertaining piece Anne A.
I don't like being a prop in the epic tale of Donald's life...but to him that's all I am, along with all the other citizens. Deplorable.
...but I'm still going to vote for him.
The only justification to vote for Trump is Hillary.
Chuck, if Trump is looking to lose by 5% or more the day before the election, Republicans will lose the House. What will happen is Democrats will get a presidential level turnout while Republicans get a mid-term turnout. This is what happens when you abandon the top of the ticket. The gerrymandering that was done after the last census won't save them in that event. To realistically hold the House, Trump must get at least 45% of the total vote. Based on just the deterioration of the LA Times sample, he is probably going to get 40%. Even worse for the Republican House, that 40% is now less likely to even vote for Republican candidates down ticket- it becomes a case of, "If we are going down, we are taking our worst enemies with us."
Remember, most voters who pull the lever for Republicans aren't like you or me- they are only loosely attached to voting at all- enthusiasm matters and having a chance to win drives enthusiasm. For some bizarre reason, a lot of hard core Republicans have convinced themselves losing with Trump is somehow better than winning with him, or even trying to. In any case, the gerrymandering is about to be undone since the Democrats will be fully in control of the courts after November if I am right about Trump losing. If the don't lose the House this round, it will happen by 2022 for certain.
So Paul Ryan's walking down Fifth Avenue, and as he steps within the sight-line of the Trump Tower.....
The only justification needed to vote for Trump is Hillary. That and Liberty, the Rule of Law.
The only up side of a Hillary presidency, I'll have no moral obligation to respect the law.
Yancey Ward said...
Chuck, if Trump is looking to lose by 5% or more the day before the election, Republicans will lose the House.
Then let's bet! Because I am telling you that Republicans will not lose the House. Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio and John McCain did not lose their primaries. We only lost 8 seats in 2012 when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney.
We own the map.
Come on, make it interesting. Bet me.
Citizen Kane was a brilliant, innovative movie, but it's reputation as the greatest ever is overblown. Like a lot of things.
Um, okay.
Exactly.
It will be interesting in my old age to see the looks on rioting illegal immigrates' waving Palestinian and Mexican flags faces, when confronted by an armed citizen middle class marching on their occupiers.
I doubt we'd be marching on them. We will just wait until they think a a riot in a middle class neighborhood is a good idea.
Right now, the cops are like chained dogs waiting to be let loose on these creeps. The politicians keep restraining them but the day might be coming when the chain breaks.
I better buy more ammo. Only 1000 rounds.
AprilApple said...Compared to Trumps's past support of all things Clinton - no one in the real world cares at all about that gang of 8 crap.
Rubio is young and articulate and the only thing the DNC-MSM had on him was that he once purchased a boat. Look at who the DNC-MSM were most afraid of - it was NOT Trump.
It cost Rubio the primary win, April. He would have been better in the general against Hillary (of course so would ANY of the other candidates) than Trump, but to get to the general Rubio had to win the primary. His decision to proudly be in the Gang of 8 cost him the primary, and that kept him out of the general, and that means President Hillary.
It is so funny how a telephone-book sized list of Trump failures, foibles and personal reversals gets overlooked. Mysogyny, assault weapons bans, single payer healthcare, Trump University, bankruptcies, draft dodging, Scalia criticism, donations to Democrats, etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.
But Rubio's involvement with one immigration bill is never forgotten.
oh, should I shut up
You might consider it, yes
"The Tea Party was constantly ridiculed by the media, like Palin, don't blame the Republicans."
I don't blame the Republicans--if the Tea Party wanted to be an independent entity they would have created an independent organization and run their candidates on a separate ballot, and clarified how they differ from the GOP. Instead, they saw the GOP as a vehicle for their issues and went that route. Not necessarily a bad choice--it did get a lot of their people elected, and has given them more influence over the GOP than they would have had if they'd broken from it. But the tradeoff is it's part of the GOP now.
"Then let's bet! Because I am telling you that Republicans will not lose the House. Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio and John McCain did not lose their primaries. We only lost 8 seats in 2012 when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney."
I think Yancy Ward may be right here--a big enough loss at the top could force a lot of GOP congressmen out of office. Part of the effect of both gerrymandering and GOP voter residential patterns is that it gives them advantages in more seats than the Dems, but these advantages are usually by only a few points. It means more of those seats can be vulnerable in a wave election.
I don't know that that would happen if Trump loses big--depends on whether enough right-leaning voters turn out and just vote downballot--but that majority isn't that rock solid. And one thing about this year is that Republicans have spent a lot more time trying to walk back outrageous comments and nonsensical proposals that alienate a lot of key voters when that time could have been spent energizing the entire base and appealing to the swing voters.
Come on, Brando; you are a very smart guy. It is just not possible, for the Dems to win 30 freaking seats this time. Not with this electoral map. They've done that (31 votes) once in a century. And not with a map like the one we have now. It has been drawn with such scientific perfection. There are barely 30 seriously competitive seats. Certainly not 30 competitive seats that could flip.
It is just not happening.
This is why I want somebody to bet. Nobody wants to bet. Chickens. Pussies.
"It's big. It's huge. It's bigger than President of the United States. Fuck President of the United States. You can take that lousy job, Hillary. I am become bigger than you ever imagined becoming!.......................They're voting for you, but I assure you, Hillary, they hate you. And they're gonna love me — me, the greatest character in the greatest movies, the most movies and the best movies ever made."
This struck me as Obama speaking, not Trump. Trump enjoys the braggadocios style but only claims to be a good manager. Obama is the man who claims to be better than everyone at everything; “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.” It is Obama who constantly references his "historic" Presidency. A man who at age 35 before he even was Senator felt his own life was so interesting it was worthy of a memoir.
Obama has a more low key style, but I suspect he has the biggest ego of them all. I also think there is more genuine hatred between Obama/Hillary than Hillary/Trump. After all HRC knows she has to run against a Republican for President, Obama is the one who cut her in the Democrat line.
The House is not going to flip this election. However, if HRC wins it will flip the following election and remain Democrat long term. I know my own district is swing. If Trump loses the GOPe will be thrilled to get behind HRC and pass a big amnesty deal. Post amnesty my district will be solid blue. Many other red districts will become swing. The entire USA will turn into CA were two Democrats are running for Senate.
My point in this post is that the more it is apparent to Donald Trump — in these last 4 weeks — that he will lose the election, the more he may fixate on accomplishing something else, such as the destruction of the GOP as we know it or the ruination of the presidency that doesn't get to be his.
But Trump is going to win … you do realize that don’t you?
Besides, the GOP “as we know it” has already been destroyed. Ryan and the rest of the eGOP idiots in Congress destroyed it and remade it into what it is today: A gutless, balls-less, fumbling, inept, cowardly bunch of apology experts that are doing their best to elect Hillary.
And why, Ms. Althouse, am I doubting that you give a shit one way or another about the survival of the GOP “as we know it?” I’ve never before gained the impression that you had any great love for the GOP. Don’t look now but your cruel neutrality is showing – that I can tell you …
After Trump is sworn in the GOP will survive nicely, albeit with different players, different leadership and a very different attitude. The new GOP will restore the economy, reform the tax code, protect the borders, stop the Syrian refugee flow into the USA and support law and order.
The new Trump-led GOP will not bend over every time the Democrat minority(if they are still a minority) needs a cornhole session, and will actually repeal and replace Obamacare instead of just talking, talking, endlessly talking about it.
As for “the ruination of the presidency,” should Hillary win – I am in total agreement. She’ll sell the Whitehouse to the highest bidder for sure. Slick Willie will be running the broads back and forth in the Whitehouse hallways. His groupies will be taking numbers for turns and there will be more pussy-grabbing than you can shake a dick at. She’ll be our unindicted POTUS, President Crooked Hillary. Does this mean you are voting for Trump? You’re saying there’s a chance, right?
grackle
It's what I pray for. A GOP where Cruz is eliminated from the Senate. You know, him being on the Supreme Court.
grackle
It's what I pray for. A GOP where Cruz is eliminated from the Senate. You know, him being on the Supreme Court.
You know, I’m feeling affection for Cruz these days. I’ve always thought Cruz would make a great Supreme Court Justice. But if Trump does not nominate him I want Cruz to remain in the Senate. I want someone in the Senate who is not afraid to fight against the popular tide. Dissenting voices, especially a voice with Cruz’s intellectual underpinnings, are always valuable to have around. Someone has to be willing to call President Trump out if President Trump, as Presidents often do, gets too feisty with the constitution and the power of the office of the POTUS.
"if the Tea Party wanted to be an independent entity they would have created an independent organization "
The Tea Party wasn't really an organization at all, it was a spontaneous movement. I saw them gather, their local activists, firsthand, in 2009. Nobody knew each other. They were nearly all previous Republican voters that I could tell. They were just (justifiably) angry people.
And they, these angry people, were the reason the House flipped in 2010. The organized Republican party did not know what to do with the public mood. The worst of the attitude is just like yours, assuming that they were an entity, rival or otherwise, intruding on the party, interlopers. No they were not. This was an organic phenomenon, a typhoon, a hurricane, stirred in your home waters.
The party dealt with them patronizingly, opportunistically, and insincerely, which could be seen in the various opinion journals as well as the egregious acts of various politicians. There was little attempt to establish trust or a meeting of minds. The party acted like the self-interested group of professional politicians that it had turned into. In retrospect it was more tied to its funders than to its voters, or most of them.
That still seems to be the case.
"She’ll sell the Whitehouse to the highest bidder for sure. Slick Willie will be running the broads back and forth in the Whitehouse hallways. His groupies will be taking numbers for turns and there will be more pussy-grabbing than you can shake a dick at. "
Its already sold, and the current management will not change. She will simply be a resident at the mansion, for all that she matters. She is too old and sick and she never was much of a manager anyway. He is too old and it seems too sick for his old shenanigans, and he will most likely remain in his retirement home, far from his wife, nursing whatever ails him.
" It is just not possible, for the Dems to win 30 freaking seats this time. Not with this electoral map. They've done that (31 votes) once in a century. And not with a map like the one we have now. It has been drawn with such scientific perfection. There are barely 30 seriously competitive seats. Certainly not 30 competitive seats that could flip."
I admit it's a tall order, but these things do happen. We thought in 2006 the seats were gerrymandered enough, and that was a midterm where GOP turnout is usually stronger than Dem turnout. I wouldn't completely rule it out, just as I wouldn't completely rule out Trump pulling off an upset. What if the right number of Trump voters don't bother to vote downballot, enough Republicans disgusted with Trump don't bother to vote at all, and enough Dems are energized enough to turn out when they ordinarily wouldn't have been bothered--simply because they want to be able to say they voted against Trump--and they also vote downballot too?
That's the disaster scenario for Ryan.
"The Tea Party wasn't really an organization at all, it was a spontaneous movement. I saw them gather, their local activists, firsthand, in 2009. Nobody knew each other. They were nearly all previous Republican voters that I could tell. They were just (justifiably) angry people."
The very beginning of it formed while Bush was still in office--around 2008--and was more Ron Paul-esque (small L libertarian). The big issue was spending and government intrusion during the Bush years, followed by bailouts. Obama's election made the movement grow, and attracted a lot more non-libertarian conservatives, and citizen activity at townhalls and gatherings around the country.
It wasn't really a monolithic group at that point--it included a lot of social conservatives as well as libertarian types--so it might not have worked as a separate political party. There was too much overlap with the GOP.
Why bet with you, Chuck? Apparently you're a welsher. You don't pay.
grackle said...
grackle
It's what I pray for. A GOP where Cruz is eliminated from the Senate. You know, him being on the Supreme Court.
You know, I’m feeling affection for Cruz these days. I’ve always thought Cruz would make a great Supreme Court Justice. But if Trump does not nominate him I want Cruz to remain in the Senate.
Cruz apparently is holding the line with Trump now. Since he would seem to be all in, his political fortunes are to a degree dependent upon a Trump win.
Not much news about Cruz or his fabled ground game operations. Wonder what is cooking, if anything. Cruz would seem to be stupid to nut up, back the man, stick to it through the scandal noise, then add no value with his GOTV analytics and his people.
?
"What if the right number of Trump voters don't bother to vote downballot,..."
They'd be damn fools. Unfortunately, from what I read here, I wouldn't put it past them.
Bad Lieutenant said...
Why bet with you, Chuck? Apparently you're a welsher. You don't pay.
What the fuck are you even talking about? Be specific. I haven't welshed on any bet.
"They'd be damn fools. Unfortunately, from what I read here, I wouldn't put it past them."
Well, remember a not insignificant number of Trump fans are not conservatives and consider the GOP a greater evil than the Democrats.
It isn't pretty, but this is shaping up to be a year that the GOP found defeat in the jaws of victory.
"Cruz apparently is holding the line with Trump now. Since he would seem to be all in, his political fortunes are to a degree dependent upon a Trump win."
Cruz had a chance to come out of this year looking good--if Trump lost, he'd be seen as a principled conservative standing against the charlatan, and he could always justify refusing to support the guy because of his nasty attacks on the guy's wife (yeah I know, someone supporting Cruz posted a Melania picture, Trump is a moral avenger who hits back twice as hard--but it puts Cruz in a position of saying "I have to be willing to let him insult my wife cruelly and never apologize" in order to endorse and look like a complete wuss).
Instead, he incurs the wrath of the Trumpites (who didn't need Cruz anyway, but damn you Cruz for not backing our guy!) by refusing to endorse, and then too late in the game endorses him anyway, giving him the downside of looking unprincipled while none of the benefits of switching. For a guy known for his calculation, that was a big blunder. He'd better hope everyone forgets by the time he runs again.
"oh, should I shut up and just write the screenplay?"
affirmative
"Well, remember a not insignificant number of Trump fans are not conservatives and consider the GOP a greater evil than the Democrats."
I guess that's right, but then those people weren't voting down-ticket Republican anyway.
"It wasn't really a monolithic group at that point-"
It was never a monolithic group, ever.
The whole point was that it was an emotional wave, a spontaneous phenomenon.
True grass-roots.
The party didn't know what to do with it.
With Trump, worse yet.
Per Grackle: After Trump is sworn in the GOP will survive nicely, albeit with different players, different leadership and a very different attitude. The new GOP will restore the economy, reform the tax code, protect the borders, stop the Syrian refugee flow into the USA and support law and order.
I hope and pray this will happen but, sadly, both the Dems and the GOPe have too much to lose to let it happen.
If the GOP loses 10 House seats I'd be a bit surprised. 30 is not a viable possibility.
Movie schmoovie. We are watching history being made: the break-up/end of the Grand Ol' Party. Trump is the Gracchi Bros, Perot Redux with a (knife) twist, John Tyler with daddy issues, Paul McCartney sans class. I've been reading comments on conservative blogs since the internet was invented and the intra-party hatred started off very high and has been building all that time. This current schism has been coming since Bush I's election, and reached critical mass with Bush II and the Iraq War. The libertarian and nationalist-populist strains within the R party HATE the "elites" (i.e., everyone else, elite or not). The intra-ideological fighting was there all along. Why do you think McCain and Romney lost? Because the Perot/Trump faction (defined currently as "non-college-educated white working class males," which is fairly accurate, and has been there all along) HATES, HATES, HATES Republicans. And they could care less about "conservative principles". They've never had a party, because... well, they're white working class males. No, wait. They're PRIVILEGED white working class (if they can get a job) males. So they're taking over the party, destroying it in order to save it. No, wait. Who wants to save it? Fuck it all, burn it all down! How many times have i read that this Summer? That and the classic "persuading with insults" gambit. This movie is better than your silly movie ("Citizen Kane" is WAY overrated anyway; if it wasn't for academics studying the brilliance of his use of shadows on walls, it would've been long forgotten by now--it sure aint no "Wizard of Fucking Oz!").
On the other hand, none of this matters anyway. As Buwaya says, we are not a serious people any more. Give us bread and circuses. The Dems know this down to the mitochondrial level in their very cells. That's why they are positioning themselves in the emperor's box and letting the Republicans be clowns.
...You know, 40 years in the wilderness isn't going to be easy without bullets. Get 'em while they're hot!
Trump talking about his favorite movie (yep, "Citizen Kane"):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeQOJZ-QzBk
Not brilliant as film criticism goes, maybe, but interesting to hear him talk about the isolating effect of great wealth and the incompatibility of wealth and happiness.
"...and the incompatibility of wealth and happiness."
Who was it said money can't buy happiness, but it sure makes unhappiness more pleasant?
Blogger Chuck said...
What the fuck are you even talking about? Be specific. I haven't welshed on any bet.
10/12/16, 3:17 PM
Fabi said he already won a bottle off you. I asked you what it was, what was the bet, and did you pay. No answer, and you answered other points in the post, so I know you read it. You usually don't answer a question when the answer is prejudicial to yourself, so I figured that was what it was, something shameful. Generally speaking you're all hopped up on betting people, so I figure it's a weakness of yours.
So? What about that claim of Fabi's? Perhaps he is lying?
Chuck, as a rule, you'll find you do better to engage with me directly and answer my questions.
Also, above somewhere, you offered people beatdowns. My offer, which I trust you don't need me to repeat, remains open. Funny, for all your getting on Trump for his words, you don't seem to know how to talk like a man.
Brando,
Cruz had a chance to come out of this year looking good
Blabbity blah. So you have nothing germane to the subject of my inquiry, I take it?
1. He's already destroyed the Republican Party as we knew it.
2. What if, in spite of himself, he wins anyway?
"both the Dems and the GOPe have too much to lose to let it happen."
I fear this is true. Maybe Christmas will come early. "Trumpmas."
Bad Lieutenant:
So I am not sure who is the bigger fuckhead; you or "Fabi." No matter; I'm going to just shove this down your worthless throat and worry about Fabi later.
No; I have not lost any bet to Fabi. My bet with Fabi is for a fine bottle of scotch and in order to win, Fabi needs for Trump to win more than 15% of the African American vote. If that happened, Trump would be getting a better percentage of the African-American vote than any Republican since Gerry Ford ran against the Governor of Georgia, I think. But regardless of the history, that is the bet. I am going to win the bet. I think Trump will get something like 7%.
If I lose the bet, I'll pay up. I expect Fabi will pay up as well if I win.
Here is the link to that bet-posting. What is funny is that your own posts litter that same page. You should have known better, than to engage in this false, phony bogus allegation that I "welshed on a bet."
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6329595&postID=4654030982972002250
You are an unusually distasteful piece of shit, Bad Lieutenant. I expect that probably Fabi didn't misinform you, and that this misunderstanding is all on you. But who knows? You can sort out with Fabi who is the worse liar.
ONG ! I started to read a comment and it was chuck !
Althouse wrote: "...he may fixate on accomplishing something else, such as the destruction of the GOP as we know it or the ruination of the presidency that doesn't get to be his."
The Stupid Party is already in tatters. The continuation of the ruination of the presidency will be ensured if Trump loses.
No fixation required.
"Blabbity blah. So you have nothing germane to the subject of my inquiry, I take it?"
I went off on a tangent--as to your suggestion that Cruz's fortunes depend on a Trump win, I don't think a Trump win has an effect on Cruz either way. He's likely to be primaried, but will probably hold his seat, the Trumpites will not forgive him for his high profile convention speech, the anti-Trumpers won't forgive him for endorsing the guy at the eleventh hour--worst of both worlds for Cruz--and while he will likely hold his Senate seat, his chances in the next presidential primary (2020 if Trump loses, 2024 if Trump wins) are diminished as it stands now. He'd have to recast his image in a big way to reverse that.
Brandon, to repeat, I don't care about that. What I want to know is if Trump is getting anything out of Cruz's backing, You know, that would help win THIS election, which I get that you don't care about?
Chuck, tl;dr. Next time answer me when I'm talking to you. Answer what I ask and don't evade.
As for an apology, I'd much rather offer you satisfaction. If I owe anyone, it is Fabi for misunderstanding him. Even so I checked with you and not so much as a fart in response. If you want my sorry, come and get it. I know you like to bet, so: I bet you won't.
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