"And Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular among Hispanics, who account for nearly one in five Florida voters. Despite these advantages, Mrs. Clinton is struggling in the Sunshine State, unable to assemble the coalition that gave Barack Obama two victories here, and offering Mr. Trump a broad opening in a road to the White House that not long ago seemed closed to him.... 'Against the candidate perceived to be the most hostile to Hispanic voters in modern presidential politics, why is she not exceeding where Barack Obama was?' Mr. Amandi, the Miami pollster, asked... 'I think it’s too early to hit the panic button, but if these numbers by mid-October aren’t at or slightly above where Obama was, there’s reason to be concerned,' he said...."
From "Hillary Clinton Struggles to Gain Traction in Florida, Despite Spending" (in the NYT).
What if spending and "ground game" are not what works anymore?
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53 comments:
"What if spending and "ground game" are not what works anymore?"
Then half of Manhattan (and Madison) open a vein in November. The other half deplore deplorable.
Do Cuban American "hispanics" look at all these things the same way Mexican "hispanics" do?
If half of Manhattan slits a vein, perhaps I can afford an apartment there next year!
Spending (I.e., media ad buys) and the "ground game" (hired guns in turnout operations) both strike me as mostly a con game by Rove/Axelrod, whereby they take credit for previously baked in preferences of the voters.
I'm trying to remember a presidential election that wasn't decided by an underlying wrong direction/right direction feeling of the general electorate: maybe Bush-Dukakis or Bush-Gore? So maybe the Bush family got something for its consultant bucks. But Hillary's advantages didn't mean much against the upstart Obama in '08 anymore than Jeb's did against the Republican voter's desire for real change.
Against the candidate perceived to be the most hostile to Hispanic voters in modern presidential politics
The reality is the Florida hispanics who worked within the system are pissed at anyone getting a free pass.
In Doral, the strongly Hispanic community where Trump has invested a great deal of $$ in the community there's some home team favoritism as well , despite what NY thinks.
Trump's got that "not Hillary" thing going for him, which has always been a powerful asset.
It shows how horrendous a candidate Hillary is.
Do Cuban American "hispanics" look at all these things the same way Mexican "hispanics" do?
No. But Puerto Ricans vote like Mexicans and their numbers in Florida have increased greatly in recent years, due to the disastrous economic situation in Puerto Rico. They're changing Florida from a swing state to a solid blue state. Trump may be able to win it this time, but the futute is not bright for Florida Republicans.
"... perceived to be the most hostile to Hispanic voters..."
I think there are a *lot* of Hispanic voters (particularly in Florida) who object to being lumped in with illegal immigrants in that thought. Trump is the most hostile to illegal immigrants. It's not the same thing. And there's no one who will tell you so more passionately than a Cuban-American in Florida.
See also: last month when some MSM wags thought there was a contradiction between Trump wooing black voters and Trump opposing the reenfranchisement of felons.
What if Hillary Clinton is just an unlikable person and bad candidate?
"What if spending and "ground game" are not what works anymore?"
In my best Maxwell Smart voice: "Ah, the old paradigm shift gambit."
Trump is tapping into voter frustration with the status quo. What would make them think using the same old techniques will allow Trump to reach people who are expressly rejecting the old techniques?
Trump is a business man that looks for results and return on investment. He won't waste money doing things the same old way. Trump is quick to recognize a new market and is using innovative ways to reach that market. --And, of course, he is a natural entertainer who is enjoying what he is doing. Does anyone seriously think Hillary is a likeable "natural" who is enjoying this campaign?
I live and work in South Florida. My many friends of the Cuban persuasion are uniformly for Trump. My Arab neighbor is for Trump. Jews who have never voted for a Republican are quietly for Trump.
My television machine seemingly runs a Hillary anti-Trump every few minutes. They're spending money hand over fist, but they've got it to spend. No point holding it back now. But the ads aren't saying anything people haven't heard before, and in spades.
"Does anyone seriously think Hillary is a likeable "natural" who is enjoying this campaign?"
Webb Hubbell cries inwardly.
I am Laslo.
If spending and ground game equal an effective GOTV machine, then you can bet they still work just fine. I loathe Hillary...even more than Chuck does... but Trump's populism, however well he's polling at the moment, has historically proven to be an ephemeral prop to any political campaign.
Wait, I thought money in politics was bad. Surely the Occupy [fill in the blank] and the anti-Citizens United crowd would applaud a win by a candidate who spent much less.
Unless money in politics is only a problem when the other side benefits from it.
I live in Florida and the feeling here is that Trump will win. Hillary has spent so much on tv and Trumo is actually about to open a campaign office in every county and the primary August 30 showed enthusiasm by Republicans while Democrats were not excited. Based on these factors Trump wins Florida by a respectable margin.
Why not the same explanation given for her likeability- because theyre sexist and cant stand the thought of a powerful woman. Or are hispanics immune to that?
The GOTV issue is a dark hole. Nobody knows anything, as they say in Hollywood about what movies sell.
One of the most NeverTrump segments of society is the political consultant class.
What happens when the deplorable dogs don't like, or at least won't swallow the dog food anymore?
1%er
Political division: those without power are united in common resentment, and those in power are united in fear.
Long ago there was a thread that evolved into whether it was the organization that would win the election or the candidate. At that time I said that the candidate that was the best campaigner would win and I am sticking with that opinion. Clinton daily exposes herself as a bad campaigner. The baggage she is carrying is too much for anyone. Her positions are unappealing and being overwhelmed weekly by Trump's much more appealing domestic ideas. Clinton has the charisma of a ham sandwich and the more people see of her the more they understand that. Good leaders have a certain level of charisma, an ability to relate and communicate with the common folk. Clinton does not have that.
That said there are still weeks to the election and anything can happen, but I have trouble seeing how Clinton will recover from "the Deplorables" and the 9/11 collapse. Romney never recovered from his 47% faux pas.
Florida? Don't mistake Cubans as hispanics.
What if spending and "ground game" are not what works anymore?
In this election they count for little, but don't throw the paradigm out quite yet. Hillary Clinton has been aggressively positioning herself in front of the public for a quarter century, and Donald Trump is very well known in his own right. What's the point of either one advertising? A lesser-known candidate in a future election will need to define himself or herself and advertising may be the best way to do that.
Now if Trump loses a key state by a small number of votes then he'll regret not having a good GOTV operation in that state, but there's no point in having both a national GOTV and your own GOTV.
Funny. Driving through WA and OR this past month, I have seen quite a few Trump signs and stickers and not one Hillary sign or sticker. This in two very 'blue' states.
Trump is changing the whole campaign game. Those negative ads of Hillary just turn voters off after seeing the same ad a hundred times.
Correction: Hillary has the charisma of a shit sandwich.
Funny. Driving through WA and OR this past month
I'm in Seattle as well. I noticed the same thing, but in the eastern half of both Washington, and Oregon. I don't see this so much on the I-5 corridor. I still see Bernie bumper stickers in Seattle, but few Hillary stickers.
I live near Seattle. One guy who prominently displayed Bernie signs now has Trump signs.
Most of the people I know are going to vote for Hillary but no one talks about and no one goes to the trouble of getting a sign or a bumper sticker.
Man, lot's of us in the Seattle area, eh?
I drive 1 hour in traffic every day, two hours if you can't to and from work.
Four years ago? All sorts of Obama bumper stickers. If there was a prius in front of me, it had an Obama/Biden sticker on it.
Now? I've yet to see a single Hillary sticker. Not one. And I sit in a lot of traffic.
Hillary has been signed to be the official spokesperson for Little Seizures pizza.
Once again, the NYT pays homage to that Timesman of yesteryear, Fox Butterfield.
"I live near Seattle. One guy who prominently displayed Bernie signs now has Trump signs."
I suppose the first reaction of a DJT supporter is approval.
But, what if you're a con person who supports DJT, it's got to cross your mind that maybe you're missing something if a socialista is drawn to your dude.
Gabriel should ask this sign displayer what are the appealing characteristics that Bern and DJT posses. Maybe it's as simple as neverHRC.
If you're too shy, give me their address, I'll ask them.
Blogger rehajm said.
The reality is the Florida hispanics who worked within the system are pissed at anyone getting a free pass.
--
That would make complete sense. If only Repubs could leverage that perspective fully.
On the rare occasion I see a Hil sign, reads to me like something you might find in regarding a hospital..
She runs nonstop negative ads that when not annoying us make us chuckle and say "yes I do want a guy who will say that this time."
In her tone deafness she is SELLING her opponent's best asset.
I live in CA. I shouldn't see any presidential ads.
wow..nonstop ads in Cali..hmm.
PBandJ_LeDouanier said...if you're a con person who supports DJT, it's got to cross your mind that maybe you're missing something if a socialista is drawn to your dude.
--
Yep. Trump directly recruited them. Enter the lesser of two evils equation.
"But, what if you're a con person who supports DJT, it's got to cross your mind that maybe you're missing something if a socialista is drawn to your dude."
Or the Bernie supporters noticed the democrat party railroaded Bernie and they dislike corrupt machine politics and corrupt politicians like Hillary.
"The future belongs to those who show up," and that's especially true at the voting booth. We know that the Democrats used their GOTV to win the last two presidential elections, but there's one thing that's different this time around: Barack Obama is not running. He won the black vote monolithically, and black turnout was extremely high, because not voting for the black man was the same as being a traitor to your race. Black people will not be as enthusiastic this time around, especially since having Barack Obama in the White House for two terms has worsened their collective lot, not improved it. And while most black people will vote for the Democrat, it won't be 93% like the last election. If Trump can peel some of those voters away, it could be enough to make a difference.
I have always been skeptical about television ads and the so-called ground game spending. They might make a difference in a state that has a margin of less than 0.5%, but probably no more benefit. The greatly underrated thing, and where Trump is literally killing Clinton day after day after day are the actual physical campaign stops. He regularly outdraws her by 10 to 1 margins, and he seems to have 2 to 3 times as many of them.
Your phrase of the day is "word of mouth" passed directly from people who were physically present at a rally he gave vs those present at rallies she gave. This aspect of campaigning is the single most important thing a candidate can do in any election. Now, a candidate has to find the right issues and the right arguments to make in regards to those issues- that leads to rallies where you draw 10 to 20 thousand, get on all the local news channels and in the local papers. Clinton is failing at this over and over. Her surrogates get bigger crowds, but the dynamic doesn't really work with a surrogate- it has to be the candidate themselves that draw these crowds.
In case the media might not have noticed, Twitter and social media are Trump's ground game. I don't know how effective they are, but notice that we know pretty much everything Trump does on a daily basis and he gets his message out with no problems at all to anybody who wants to know.
I suspect DVR has significantly reduced the TV ad's effectiveness. My folks almost never sit through commercials anymore, they either fast forward through a show they're watching later or they mute them. The only advertising either campaign has made that I paid the slightest attention to is Trump's radio ads during the primary season on the sports talk radio station.
What if a sizeable portion of the base Democrat voters are deplorable sexists?
You can only polish a turd so much.
Trump and Bernie both tap into the same group of people. My wife reads a lot of prepper sites such as the Archdruid and Gail the Actuary, and she's noticed that the far left and far right share common values. They're both independent, suspicious of government, homeschool their kids and despise mainstream politicians.
The only difference she noted was that the far left do drugs and the far right do guns.
(Note, when I say far left and right, I'm talking about those who believe in climate change, the economic decline of this country, and resource depletion.)
I've noticed that the Hillary ads during the Olympics were positive, but now, they are ALL negative. Nothing remotely positive any longer.
She's drowning.
Note to Hillary: Those same Republicans that hate Trump --- most hate you just as much if not more.
Clinton has the charisma of a ham sandwich
False. I like ham sandwiches.
Another Seattleite (part time these days, alas) checking in and oh yes all my local friends and family are voting for Hillary, but there's very little enthusiasm. I have zero doubt they will dutifully return their absentee ballots for her, but if it took any effort to actually go to a physical polling location, turnout for her would be quite low. Everyone will say Trump is terrible, etc, but I honestly think a lot of that is just social signaling. They're just repeating the views that are expected of them.
In '08 and '12 we constantly heard about Obama's great digital and social campaign. Nothing so far about Hillary.
@David, to use social media effectively, one needs some content. Now I personally donit like listening to Obama flap his gums, but Dems hang on his every TelePromptTed word - they eat that stuff up like it's mana from heaven. Hillary has no content to push - her speeches are creaky, dry and shrill. Even her supporters don't want to listen to that. She has no new ideas, nothing to say.
Hillary's running negative ads in Utah. Lots of them. Why? There has been a concerted push to turn Utah this time around. It won't work, simply because Hillary Clinton is Satan's handmaid.
-Vance
Do Cuban American "hispanics" look at all these things the same way Mexican "hispanics" do?
Obama's Castro-fellating policies may be a bit unattractive to Americans who fled the Castros' tyranny and persecution and poverty. The elitists in Mexico aren't that much different.
Just my opinion but I think the 2016 GOP primary proved pretty conclusively that you can't buy your way to an election though you have a good chance of preventing some you don't want from being elected.
@eric: I've yet to see a single Hillary sticker. Not one. And I sit in a lot of traffic.
On 405 today I saw one. One. A little H arrow inside a heart.
@PB&J:If you're too shy, give me their address, I'll ask them.
Oh that's not creepy at all.
Both Trump and Bernie were running against the establishment, pretty easily explained. They both said a lot of things that they can't ever possibly put into practice. They both ran as outsiders, Bernie is not actually a Democrat, though he caucuses with them.
If all you car about is delivering maximum pain to people who are in favor of politics as usual, either candidate will do.
"What if spending and "ground game" are not what works anymore?"
Except for a politician actually shaking hands, I'm not convinced it ever worked.
Note that most support for advertising comes from advertisers doing "studies." In the political arena, if the claims align with the punditry, then the advertising is vaunted as being successful, regardless of any objective measurements. I find little to no evidence that many of the most vaunted ads in political history actually had any effect on the election results. (In some cases, it turns out that almost nobody saw the ad at the time, so later claims of effect are clearly bullshit.)
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